Friday, November 09, 2012

AZ's uncounted ballots update

There isn't much to update.  The AZ SOS' press release on the progress toward counting the remaining provisional and early ballots reflects only the work in Maricopa County, but since Maricopa County has more uncounted ballots than the rest of the state combined, it works.

Yesterday, there were 359K uncounted ballots in Maricopa County - 344K early and 115K provisional.

Those numbers have been reduced to 237,359 and 115K, respectively.

There are a few races where the uncounted ballots could impact the outcomes, once all of the ballots are counted.

Statewide races -

R Jeff Flake still has a sizeable lead over D Rich Carmona in the race for US Senate, but the lead is down to less than 75K votes.  Given that most of the provisional ballots seem to be from Latino and Democratic-heavy areas, there is still a spark of hope here.

Congressional races -

In CD2, D Ron Barber is slightly ahead (586 votes) of R Martha McSally.  This one is going back and forth and it may be well into next week before the victor is determined.

In CD1, D Ann Kirkpatrick's lead over R Jonathan Paton stands at 6264 votes.  She is likely to hold on here.

In CD9, D Kyrsten Sinema has opened up a lead of 4068 votes over R Vernon Parker.  I don't think this race is called yet, but the margin and trend both favor Sinema.

State legislative race -

In LD28, D Eric Meyer has a 683-vote lead over R Amanda Reeve for the 2nd House seat in that district.  The trend favors Meyer, but this one is a long way from over.

Maricopa County races -

In the Sheriff's race, R Joe Arpaio has an 85670-vote lead over D Paul Penzone.  Even if the uncounted ballots skew heavily toward Penzone (which I kind of expect), Arpaio's bacon will almost certainly be saved by spoiler "independent" Mike Stauffer, who received nearly 45K votes.

In the race for CAWCD (Central Arizona Water Conservation District, aka the board of directors of the Central Arizona Project), Heather Macre is 94 votes behind Jean McGrath for fifth place in a race where the top five vote-getters win seats on the board.  If Macre pulls ahead in the final count, Arizonans will win twice - Macre is a hard-working subject matter expert who would be a supreme asset on the board; McGrath is most assuredly *not*; her loss would be a case of "addition by subtraction".

In the race for Justice of the Peace in the Arrowhead Justice Precinct, we are still awaiting results, but that isn't due to the uncounted provisional/early ballots issue - that was a race where all of the candidates were write-in candidates, and those take a while to count.

The latest reports have the Maricopa County Recorder's office working through the weekend and the holiday on Monday, so the outcomes of the various close races, especially here in Maricopa County, should be clearer on Tuesday.

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