Campaign and committees update: busy day

...First, the big news:  Rep. Chad Campbell, Democratic leader in the AZ House, announced his decision to not seek the Democratic nomination for governor in 2014.

His statement, via Facebook -

It’s been no secret that for the last few months I have been considering running for Governor of Arizona.  Our analysis, as well as independent polling, confirms that I would be in a very strong position if I entered the race.  I have talked with Arizonans across the state about the need to move Arizona in a new direction.  We must focus on job creation, improving our education system and instilling transparency at all levels of government.  However, there are other issues that need to be considered outside of purely political factors when deciding whether or not to run.  It is with these considerations in mind that I have decided to not run for Governor of Arizona at this time.  This decision was not made lightly. I need to focus on my family and other new business opportunities that will allow me to improve communities not only in Arizona, but also across the nation.  To the countless number of people across Arizona who have encouraged me to run, I cannot thank you enough.  While I look forward to serving my last year in the Arizona Legislature as the House Democratic Leader, this decision by no means marks the end of my public service.  I will continue looking at all options in the future to determine how best I can serve Arizona.

Campbell's departure from the race leaves Fred Duval as the only "name" Democrat in the race.  While there is still time for someone else to enter, it's going to have to be soon.

Note:  I didn't have a "favorite" in the projected race but I thought, and think, that a robust primary at the top of the ticket would benefit all Democratic candidate by generating interest and media coverage.

...Human Rights Campaign and other groups announced their plans to support an effort to repeal the state's constitutional prohibition of same-sex marriage.

From the Arizona Daily Sun, written by Howie Fischer of Capitol Media Services -

Hoping to create a change in attitudes, various civil rights groups are taking the first steps today to convince Arizonans that letting gays wed would be a good thing.

The education campaign being launched comes just five years after 56 percent of those who went to the polls voted to put an amendment in the Arizona Constitution defining marriage in this state as strictly between one man and one woman. But supporters of rescinding the ban contend there are Arizonans who can be convinced — if not now, then by 2016 — to support repeal. And they say there already is evidence of a sharp change in public attitudes.

“For example, Wisconsin in 2006 passed a similar amendment,” said Paul Guequierre, a spokesman for the Human Rights Campaign, one of several groups involved in today’s event. “And yet this past year (they) elected their first openly gay senator in history.”

Irony alert, from the same article (emphasis added) -

But Cathi Herrod, president of the Center for Arizona Policy, said supporters of gay marriage are reading far too much into last year’s election of Baldwin, a seven-term member of Congress who edged out former Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson.

“I would not say that the voters of Wisconsin elected that senator because of her sexual orientation and that reflects a change in attitudes,” Herrod said. “People judge candidates on the basis of their qualities, where they stand on the issues.”

I wonder if Ms. Herrod, president of the Center for Arizona Theocracy Policy, actually understands the significance of what she said, because for the first time in, like, EVER, I find myself in agreement with one of her statements.

...A candidate with a last name that's famous in AZ politics has entered the race for the Republican nomination to the Arizona House of Representatives in LD 25.  Mesa school board member Michelle Udall has opened a committee for a run.

...Gary Kiehne, campaign address in Eagar, has opened a committee for a run at the Republican nomination in CD1.  Arizona Republic story here.

An open letter to Chad Campbell and Fred Duval...

...and anyone else looking at entering the 2014 race for governor...and anyone looking to convince one or another candidate to drop out of the race to avoid a messy primary.

Earlier today, Tom Prezelski and Bob Lord, two of the contributors to Blog for Arizona, wrote "open letters" to State Rep. Chad Campbell.  Tom urged Campbell to drop out of the race, while Bob didn't go that far, instead suggesting that Campbell examine his motives for running, and possibly reevaluate his candidacy.

Time for a bit of a contrarian view.

Dear Chad and Fred,

 

I know, like, and respect you both. 

 

I firmly believe that either of you will make a fine candidate for governor and a good governor of the state of Arizona, and certainly a better one than anyone who can get through the Republican primary. 

 

Don't get too excited - I think that a mop in a janitor's closet in the basement of the Executive Tower would do a better job than any of the likely Republican candidates.  The mop wouldn't do a *good* job - it wouldn't do much of anything at all.  However, by the same token, it wouldn't set out to do a *bad* job, either.  Which places it head and shoulders above any of the Rs...but I digress...

 

I also believe that both of you, and/or anyone else who may jump into the race, *need* a contested primary, against a serious and capable opponent.

 

Fred, you are an intelligent and accomplished man with a long record of public service.  And, so far as I can tell, you've run for office once many years ago (Congress, 2002) and it wasn't statewide.

 

Chad, you are an intelligent man who has done some incredible work in the legislature.  And so far as I can tell, you've only run for office in a relatively small and Democratic-leaning district in Phoenix.

 

Running for a statewide office will be outside of the experience of both of you, and clearing the primary field will only serve to put the beginning point of the learning curve for that at the start of the general election season.

 

Given that there will be five or six weeks between the end of primary election voting and the beginning of early voting in the general election, that's not the place to start learning how to be an effective candidate for high office.

 

A robust primary is the place for that learning process.

 

Witness two examples -

 

In 2006, Jim Pederson ran for the US Senate seat held by Jon Kyl.  A good man and an effective businessman, like Fred, he had never run for office before.  As a former chair of the ADP, many party insiders worked to clear the primary field for him, and it showed.  At the start of the general election campaign he was painful to watch on the stump.  To be sure, he learned, and learned quickly.  By the time the GOTV push came around during the last weekend before the election, he was far more relaxed in front of crowds.  However, by then it was far too late.

 

He got smoked in the general election by Kyl.

 

On the other hand, in 2012, Kyrsten Sinema ran for Congress.  Like Chad, she had run for office before (and also like Chad, won), but only in a Democratic-leaning legislative district.  The 2012 primary that she won was a robust one (OK.  It was probably the most rugged seen by AZ Dems in recent memory, but compared to some of the D primaries in Massachusetts, where I grew up, it was no worse than one of the neighborhood games of tag that we played as kids).

 

She emerged from that primary as a strong and toughened candidate who hit the general election ground running, and ran right over the Republican nominee in the race.

 

 

There are a number of Arizona Democrats, many of whom I respect and some of whom I count as friends, who always work to avoid primaries.  Too "messy", or something like that.

 

I think that they, and candidates who go along with that line of thinking, are doing the people of Arizona in general, and Arizona Democrats and Independents in particular, a supreme disservice.

 

Primaries, uncomfortable though they may be for some people, toughen candidates for their general election races and also raise the public profiles of those candidates.

 

As things stand right now, even the worst Republican candidate goes into any general election race with advantages that go beyond a voter registration advantage.  Their primary battles generate public interest and media coverage for their candidates, and their candidates start the general election season already at full campaign speed while generally facing opponents who are still gearing up for the real race.

 

Instead of clearing the field for a single candidate, party activists, grassroots and establishment alike, should encourage the candidates to run in, not to get out of, races.

 

Chad, Fred, and anyone else who gets in the race - instead of reaching out to contacts within the party who might help convince one of the other candidates to step aside, focus on reaching out to Democrats (and Independents) who will vote for you not only in the primary but in the general.

 

Oh, and while the primary campaign should be "robust" and energetic, it should also be fairly clean.  Regardless of who wins the primary, the victor will need the general election support of the runner-up's supporters.

 

Just a few things to keep in mind.

 

Sincerely,

 

Craig McDermott

Scottsdale, Arizona

AZ House Speaker Tobin calls Chad Campbell "insincere" and "immature"...

...and says Campbell should have cleared his proposal to address the epidemic of gun violence sweeping the state and nation with Tobin first.

On Sundays here in AZ, like most of the country, local TV stations broadcast their political or public affairs programming, usually early in the morning.

Phoenix station KPNX (Channel 12 to those folks who aren't into alphabet soup early in the morning) broadcasts a program called "Sunday Square Off" at 8 a.m. local time.  The host is Brahm Resnick, a recently naturalized Canadian immigrant.  He's pretty even-handed, letting his guests say what they're going to say without interfering with them, but not afraid to press someone for details when they are being vague on an issue (given that he usually deals with politicians, that happens.  Frequently. :) ).

The show, while aired on Sunday, is recorded on Friday, which means that Resnick and his station can post teasers and previews on Saturday.

Which they did this week, here.

A transcript of the relevent part of the teaser -

Resnick - Now do you doubt his sincerity?

Tobin - Oh well sure, this is about him running for governor.  I'm very disappointed and it's immature..."here's my plan" and all you press guys show up and they put microphones in his face.  So he gets attention and that's OK.  Well how about picking up the phone and saying "hey Andy, what about something like this?"

Something tells me that the upcoming session of the lege will be a long and contentious one, judging by the fact that the Republican leadership is already resorting to name-calling.

Oh, and the leader of the caucus that barely acknowledges the existence of, much less deigns to speak to, Democratic members of the House and their constituents, whining about it when somebody doesn't talk to *him*?

Is there such a term as "operational hypocrisy"?  If not, there is now, and Tobin is serving up a big steaming pile of it...

Hugh Hallman, former mayor of Tempe, "pondering" a 2014 run for governor

From the Phoenix Business Journal, written by Mike Sunnucks -

Former Tempe mayor Hugh Hallman is looking at running for Arizona governor in 2014.

 

The Republican said on his website today he is pondering a run.

 

“Over the next few months, I will be traveling the state of Arizona to speak with and listen to people from all walks of life about what’s really important to them in their state government, and how we can address our priorities successfully,” Hallman said. “At that time, I will make a final decision about pursuing elected office. I have one particular elected office very clearly in mind — the office of governor of Arizona.”

If he runs and gains the R nomination next year, he could suffer the embarrassment of losing Tempe, his hometown, in the general election.  As mayor of Tempe, he kept a lid on the anti-constituent craziness that permeates internal Republican politics these days, but to get through the Republican primary, he'll need to cut loose with the nihilist rhetoric of the Rs' social and fiscal agendas.

That will cost him votes in Tempe. 

Lots of votes.

Sunnucks' piece went on to list a few other rumored candidates -

On the Democratic side:  Dr. Richard Carmona, former US Surgeon General and 2012 Democratic nominee for US Senate; Fred Duval, businessman, author, and former President of the Arizona Board of Regents; and Greg Stanton, mayor of Phoenix.

On the Republican side:  State Treasurer Doug Ducey and AZ Secretary of State Ken Bennett.


Possible additions/subtractions to that list:

Greg Stanton has stated that he is not running for governor in 2014 (that doesn't mean he won't change his mind at some point, but 2014 really might be too early for him to go for the governor's job.)

State Representative Chad Campbell, the Democratic leader in the AZ House, is also eyeing a run.  Like the others mentioned here, he may end up not running for governor (right now, they're all "pondering"), but he is probably more likely to run than Carmona is, at this point.

Felecia Rotellini, the impressive Democratic nominee for AZ Attorney General in 2010, is being talked up as a potential candidate.  I think that she is more likely to mount another run at AG, but it's still early - anything could happen.

Scott Smith, the Republican mayor of Mesa.  Has had success during his administration (Mesa is no longer the political, social, economic, intellectual, and cultural laughingstock of Arizona) and is young enough (mid to late 50s) that he could wait until 2018.  On the other hand, the wheels could fall off in Mesa at any time (or, more likely, the Arizona legislature could slash Mesa's tires at any time), so he may be best served by running in 2014.

Steve Pierce, former president of the AZ state senate (he won reelection to the Senate, but lost the R caucus vote for a return to the senate presidency) and rancher in Yavapai County, is rumored to be eyeing the race, but a candidate who isn't from Maricopa or Pima counties has an uphill path.  Add in the fact that while former legislators *have* made it to the 9th Floor (Jan Brewer, Jane Hull), they didn't get there directly, going through other offices first, and he may be least likely to run of anyone mentioned in this post.

Gary Pierce (no relation to Steve), member and former chair of the Arizona Corporation Commission, is also rumored to be interested in the governor's office.  Those rumors received a boost when fellow R Bob Stump was elected as chair of the ACC, presumably to allow Gary Pierce the time to explore a run.


In other 2014 news, maybe we should rename the office of the Arizona Attorney General as the office of Arizona Eternal Optimist:

Tom Horne has formed a reelection committee.

Good God, this is going to be fun.  :)

Q & A with Representative Chad Campbell

The start of the 2013 session of the Arizona legislature is less than a week away, and it promises to be a colorful and interesting session (interesting for political geeks, anyway :) ).

In the interest of gaining a little insight into the minds of some legislators and what to expect for the upcoming session, I contacted the legislators from LDs 24 and 26 (I live in LD24 and have known the incoming legislators in LD26 for years) with a number of questions.

The responses will be posted here.

First up:  Representative Chad Campbell (D-Phoenix), the House Democratic leader (questions in black, responses in blue) -

Picture courtesy AZHouseDemocrats.com

What unique perspective or background do you bring to the legislature? I think one of the unique perspectives I bring to the legislature is the fact that I have worked in the public, private and non-profit sectors. I’m one of the few members of the legislature who has this type of experience. I believe this experience gives me valuable insight into how all of these sectors interact with one another and how they impact our community and economy. This is important as we face challenging times which require innovative solutions and partnerships between the three sectors.

 

What will be your priorities for the 2013 session of the legislature? 

1. Increasing and identifying new funding for our schools. 2. Working to improve and strengthen our health care systems. 3. Increasing transparency and accountability at all levels of government, which also means ending handouts to special interests such as private prisons. 4. Providing leadership with a long-term vision, a blueprint for lack of a better term, for our state. We have suffered from leadership that has only made short-sighted decisions over these last few years. That cannot continue.

 

What bills do you plan to introduce? 

There will be several so I can’t list them all out here. Suffice it to say they will all relate to my priorities listed in the above question one way or another.

 

It is difficult for Democratic members of the legislature to have their proposals actually move through the legislature, especially without the support of some of the Republican members. What areas of common ground do you expect/hope to find with Republican members? 

I hope that we can find some common areas around school safety issues in light of the recent tragedy, as well as overall increased funding for our schools. One other area I would like to see some agreement on is tax reform that helps small businesses and families. It’s time to close out many of the loopholes in our tax code that are benefitting only the few and make it a simpler, more effective tax code. This shouldn’t be a partisan issue, it’s just good economics.

 

As in the recent past, expectations are that some "cutting edge" measures will be considered by the legislature this year. Have you heard of any specific proposals that may bring unwanted attention to Arizona? 

Well, we’ve already heard of ludicrous proposals to arm teachers on school campuses, and unfortunately that may be just the tip of the iceberg on this issue. I also expect more bills aimed at demonizing the immigrant community, attacking women’s rights, and additional corporate welfare. We will be there to fight these bad ideas every step of the way.

 

Regardless of the other issues that may arise during the session, the state's budget is always the most contentious. What areas of the budget would you like to see strengthened? What area(s) do you think could withstand a cut? Do you have any ideas for introducing long-term stability to Arizona's budget? 

We really can’t take any more cuts to our budget, and right now we have a surplus so there is no need for it. We need to add funding to our schools, health care, infrastructure, law enforcement, state parks and a whole other litany of programs and areas. One area that does need to have funding reduced is money going to our prisons, specifically private prisons. Prison populations are stable and there is no need for additional beds at this time. Yet, Gov. Brewer and the Tea Party led legislature gave private prisons $50 million last year. This is just one example of the continued bad decision making we’ve seen from the GOP over the last several years.

What we need is a long-term plan for our state. This means a modernized tax code that is fair for everyone which produces the revenue we need for schools, healthcare, infrastructure, and sustainable economic development programs that will make Arizona competitive. We also need to introduce and embrace innovative solutions that are plaguing our schools, health care providers and business sector. We must no longer keep repeating the same mistakes of the past. Arizona must head in a new direction that is not dominated by ideology, but by common sense and logic. I will be unveiling a blueprint for Arizona’s future sometime in the near future that does exactly that.

 

If your constituents want to contact you, what is your office address, phone, and email?

House Minority Leader Chad Campbell
1700 W. Washington
Phoenix, Arizona 85007
602.926.3026
chcampbell@azleg.gov

A few pictures from the 2012 election cycle

Most of these pics have been shared here or on FB already, but are worth another look...

State Sen. David Schapira addressing a crowd of voters in Tempe in January while he was exploring a run for Congress.  He finished the primary in 2nd place.

From March:  The CD5 delegates to the Democratic National Convention, (L-R) Janie Hydrick, Chase Williams, Laura Copple, Jerry Gettinger, Lauren Kuby, and Randy Keating

Paul Penzone, candidate for Maricopa County Sheriff, speaking at an event in Tempe

At the same April event, the future LD26 legislative team - (L-R, standing) Reps-elect Juan Mendez and Andrew Sherwood and Sen.-elect Ed Ableser

Mark Mitchell in April, the future Mayor of Tempe.  He emerged victorious in Tempe's election in May.

Andrei Cherny, candidate for Congress, addressing a meeting of the LD24 Democrats; he finished third in the primary.

In July, putting up signs

In July, an overflow crowd at Changing Hands Bookstore in Tempe for a Congressional primary forum

Congressional candidate Kyrsten Sinema at the July forum.  She emerged from the primary as the nominee.

Not political or anything to do with the election cycle; I just like the sign.

In August, Harry Mitchell addressing a crowd at an event in Tempe

September: Future state rep. Juan Mendez speaking at the LD26 campaign office in Tempe

US Senate candidate Rich Carmona speaking to a supporter at the same Tempe event in September

The "crowd" at the Clean Elections debate for LD24 legislative candidates in September

In September, future State Rep. Andrew Sherwood (standing) greeting friends in Tempe in September

Kyrsten Sinema addressing the crowd at the same Tempe event in September
 

Election Day: watching early national returns at the Arizona Democratic Party headquarters in Phoenix

Election Day: The crowd gathering at the Renaissance watching election night coverage on CNN

Election night: Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton speaking to the hundreds gathered at the Renaissance

The jublilant crowd as the election is called for President Obama

All of the above pics were taken by me and represent just the tiniest portion of the effort and energy and dedication of the 2012 election cycle.  Similar scenes and more took place across the state all year, and while a guy with a camera may not have been at each place, they were all a part of the successes of the cycle.

Voting *for* a candidate: a guide

During an election cycle, particularly a long one like a presidential cycle, it's easy to lose sight of why we support this candidate or that candidate, losing ourselves in being against the "other".

The reasons why we support candidate "A" become subsumed by the fact that candidate "B" is an arrogant, avaricious plutocrat or the reasons that we support candidate "X" are drowned in the glare of candidate "Y's" bigotry, corruption, etc.

As easy as voting"against" can be, voting "for" is far more satisfying.  I've been voting for a while now.  Not gonna say how long, but the first presidential ticket that received my vote was Mondale/Ferraro.  You do the math. :)

While most of my votes have been "for" a candidate, too many have been for the "less bad" candidate.  The most satisfying votes that I've ever cast were for Harry Mitchell.  While he is nowhere near liberal enough to suit me politically, he based his positions, and his votes in office, on what he thought was in the best interests of his constituents.

Voting for him in 2010 when David Schweikert took advantage of the Republican wave that year to oust an icon was no less satisfying than voting for him in 2006 when Mitchell first won a seat in Congress.

Having said all of that, here's my "positive" take on my votes this year, why I voted "for" particular candidate.  There were lots of  "for" candidates this year -


- Barack Obama for President - I enthusiastically voted for him in 2008, and proudly did so again this year. 

In the face of intractable opposition (to the point that Republicans in Congress voted against bills that they had sponsored themselves if Obama supported them), he led the start of real healthcare reform, started winding down the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, fought for tax cuts for the working and middle classes, saved the American auto industry, and oversaw the end for Osama Bin Laden. 

To be sure, there were a few missteps, but even most of those just showed that the man is simply human (stay off the pitcher's mound, Mr. President :) ).

My biggest complaint with him is that he hasn't be liberal enough in his governance.

However, that dovetails with the biggest reason to vote to give him a second term - he has governed.  Not ruled, not dictated, not anything but do his job.

He has worked *for* his constituents, all of them, not just those who agree with him or give him campaign contributions.

You may not agree with everything he's done in office; I like and support him, and even *I* don't agree with everything that the Obama administration has done. 

However, he has done what he has done out of concern for the best interests of his constituents, which should be the motivation behind the positions and actions of *all* elected officials.

As such, he has more than earned a second term in the oval office.

Picture courtesy CNN

I promise that the rest of these will be much shorter.  :)

- Dr. Rich Carmona for U.S. Senate - This may be his first foray into electoral politics, but it's not his first foray into public service.  Not hardly.

In his storied career, he has been an Army medic (in Vietnam), a SWAT team leader, and Surgeon General of the United States.  His life story is the archetypal American success story - born to immigrant parents, worked to obtain an education, lifted himself out of poverty, and has spent his adult life in public service of one sort or another.

In short, he's the sort of person who *should* be in office because he has been where most of us have been.

Carmona talking to a supporter in Tempe, September 15

- Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Congress (CD9) - *Not* her first foray into electoral politics, but it's hardly her first foray into public service.  Like Carmona above, she bootstrapped her way out of poverty with education and hard work, and like Carmona, she has dedicated her life to serving the public.  In her case, she has been a social worker, attorney, and educator.

And like Carmona, she is the kind of person who should be in office representing us because she has been and is us.

Sinema at a candidate forum in July in Tempe

- Katie Hobbs (Senate) and Lela Alston and Chad Campbell (House) for the Arizona legislature from LD24 - They are each experienced, dedicated, intelligent, hard-working, and caring public servants and have earned another term in office.

(L-R) Hobbs, Alston, and Campbell at the LD24 Clean Elections forum in Phoenix, September 25th

Bonus legislative race:  Ed Ableser (Senate) and Juan Mendez and Andrew Sherwood (House) for the Arizona legislature from LD26 -  While they were not on my ballot (I live in LD24), all three are friends of mine and people who I respect.  They are active members of the community and have and will work for the betterment of the community.

 

 

(Standing L-R) Mendez, Sherwood, and Ableser at the LD26 Chili Cook-Off, April 28

 

- Paul Penzone for Maricopa County Sheriff - Penzone is a career cop who has based his career on *involving* the entire community, not demonizing* part of it for personal and political gain.  When he is elected, he'll bring a level of professionalism and integrity to the MCSO that hasn't been seen there in decades.

Penzone in Tempe, April 28 (same event as in the above pic, only a couple of hours earlier)

- Marcia Busching, Sandra Kennedy, and Paul Newman for the Arizona Corporation Commission - While the members of this trio bring a variety of experiences and backgrounds to the table, but they share a focus on ensuring Arizona's energy future.

Are all of the above candidates Democrats?  Yup.

But before the above is dismissed as "partisan hackery", one should ask if all of the above candidates are the "best" candidates. 

The answer to that question is a resounding "Yes".

Their primary concern has been (in the case of previous or current officeholders) or will be (in the case of future officeholders) the best interests of the people that they represent.

I don't expect to agree with them on every single issue, but I do expect that every person who "represents" me to hold positions, craft policies, and cast votes based on the best interests of their constituents.

And before anyone begins thinking that I've gone soft, an "against" post will follow this one.  :)

Primary Ballot Time - 2012

Well, for those who vote by mail, this week was a big week - ballots for the August primary election have started hitting mailboxes across the state.

Here's mine -

In the contested races that are visible in the pic, I voted for David Schapira for Congress (more on that below), Katie Hobbs for State Senate, and Chad Campbell and Lela Alston for State House.  On the other side of the ballot, it was Paul Penzone for Maricopa County Sheriff, John Washington for Mayor of Scottsdale, and Denny Brown for Scottsdale City Council (so far, I'm single-shotting Brown, but we can vote for up to three candidates in that race.)

As for the race for Congress -

While all three candidates have their good points, and all are basically on the right side of the "big issues", only one will do the best job of representing the Ninth Congressional District. That one is David Schapira. He is a "what you see is what you get" kind of candidate - honest, direct, and straightforward. His primary concern is working to make this a better community, by supporting education, health care opportunity, small business, and all of the things that help make a community a *home*. I'm proud to call him my state senator and prouder still to call him a friend.

He will be Arizona's next great Congressman.

Early speculation time: 2014 Governor's race - Part Two

A few days ago, I posted a snark-filled piece full of speculation on possible Republican candidates for governor in 2014.

Out of a sense of fairness, I'm now doing one on potential Democratic candidates.

Out of a sense of partisanship, it will be less snarky...at least, less snarky toward the Democratic candidates. :)

As with the prior post, no actual discussions with the potential candidates took place in the production of this post.  In no way does a mention in this post indicate that someone is planning or interested in running for governor of Arizona, nor does lack of a mention in this post indicate that someone is *not* planning or interested in running for governor of Arizona.

As with the previous post on this topic, the names mentioned are those who have held office previously or who have otherwise made an impact on the metaphorical public square.

On to the speculation:

Terry Goddard, former attorney general and candidate for governor:
- Con: has run for governor and lost, twice.
- Pro: both of the ultimate victors of the races for governor (Fife Symington, Jan Brewer) that he was in have brought great national ridicule down upon Arizona.  The voters may finally be ready to choose competence over ideological blathering.
- Con2:  This is Arizona.  Don't hold your breath.

Janet Napolitano, former governor:
- Con: she resigned as governor in 2009 to take a position in President Barack Obama's cabinet, leaving Arizona fading in her rear-view mirror.
- Pro: regardless of the outcome of the 2012 presidential election, she may be interested in moving on - - if the Rs win, a whole new cabinet will be brought in to DC; if Obama wins, pretty much the same will happen.  Second term presidential cabinets are usually very different than the cabinets for the first term of the same president.  And three-plus years of "Governor Jan Brewer" have only served to increase the amount of respect people have for Napolitano.
- Con2: as Secretary of Homeland Security, Napolitano has only had to deal with terrorists, spies, and grave threats to America.  As governor, she might not be willing to again deal with scourges upon society like the Arizona legislature, the Goldwater Institute, and the Center for Arizona Policy.

Gabrielle Giffords, former member of Congress:
- Con: still recovering from a horrific assassination attempt that took the lives of six people, including a small child, and injured more than a dozen other people.
- Pro: if her recovery, already nothing short of miraculous, progresses well enough for her to handle the rigors of the job, and she actually wants the job, the election will be less a contest than a walk-over.

Harry Mitchell, former member of Congress:
- Con: after nearly five decades of public service, he may have reached the point of his life where he is ready to leave the "top of the ballot" stuff - walking precincts and making appearances on the rubber chicken circuit to those with younger legs and digestive tracts.
- Pro: one of the most respected people in Arizona politics, and one of the few left where the respect genuinely crosses partisan lines.

Phil Gordon, former mayor of Phoenix -
- Pro: still has an effective organization and base of support in what is the largest city and county in the state.
- Con: the Rs despise him, and he is far from popular with grassroots Ds, even in Maricopa County, outside of Phoenix.

Greg Stanton, current mayor of Phoenix -
- Pro: also has an effective organization and base of support in what is the largest city and county in the state.  In addition, he is so new that he hasn't had time to tick off grassroots Ds.
- Con: the Rs despise him, despite knowing next to nothing about him (other than that he isn't one of them), and he is young by political standards.
- Pro2: he may be too young/new for an effective run in 2014, but 2018 and 2022 are well within the realm of realistic possibility.

Felecia Rotellini, 2010 candidate for attorney general -
- Pro: while she didn't win in 2010, she had the best performance of any D candidate during that cycle and garnered a lot of respect across the political spectrum.  She's smart, energetic, and universally well-liked among Democrats.  It helps that the guy who won the 2010 election, Tom Horne, is widely considered to be a sleazeball and is under federal investigation for campaign finance violations.
Con - while she's been a public servant before, she has never actually held elected office.  Like Napolitano before her, a term as AG might be necessary to elevate her name recognition among the general public before running for the top spot.

Sandra Kennedy, current member of the Arizona Corporation Commission -
- Pro: intelligent, experienced and one of only two Democrats to hold statewide elected office.
- Con: as with Brenda Burns in the previous post, the ACC isn't the highest-profile perch from which to launch a run at a high-profile job.  Unlike Burns however, Kennedy actually does some good work for the people of AZ, and as such, she doesn't have access to scads of corporate money.

Other names that may come up in conversation:

Rep. Chad Campbell, House minority leader: smart but young enough that like Stanton above, 2014 may be too soon; Kyrsten Sinema, former state legislator and current candidate for Congress: also young, and has her sights set much higher than the 9th floor of the Executive Tower; Steve Gallardo, state legislator: could go for it in 2014, but young enough to wait until 2018/2022 and use the time to both consolidate and expand his base of support; Ruben Gallego, state legislator:  if the others are young by political standards, he's a bambino.  A bambino with ambition, however.  2014 is too soon, and 2018/2022 may also be too soon, but after that...?; Neil Giuliano, former Republican and former mayor of Tempe:  made noises about a run in 2010, but was pretty much unknown outside of Tempe.  Would need to elevate his name rec among the general public.

A couple of wildcards:

Sue Gerard and Kris Mayes, the former head of the state Department of Health Services and chair of the Arizona Corporation Commission, respectively.  They're Republicans who have actually done good work for the people of Arizona.  As such, they'd never get through a Republican primary in the current political environment.  Not likely to even consider becoming Democrats, but given the amount of respect that people have for them, they could make things interesting.

Later...

Redistricting Update: Second appointment - Jose Herrera

Earlier today, State Rep. Chad Campbell announced via a Facebook posting, that he has selected Jose Herrera of Maricopa County as his appointment to the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission (AIRC).

Because House Speaker Kirk Adams also selected someone from Maricopa County, both Senate President Russell Pearce and House Democratic Leader David Schapira must select from candidates who reside outside of Maricopa County.

The list of available candidates is here, with an update here.

Pearce has to select either Benny White or Richard Stertz, both of Pima County.

Schapira has seven potential selections - Eric B. Henderson (Navajo County), Linda C. McNulty (Pima County), Lawrence C. Mohrweis (Coconino County), William G. Roe (Pima County), Mark D. Rubin (Pima County), Jimmie D. Smith (Yuma County), and Marshall A. Worden (Pima County).

Both can select a nominee from the pool of Independent candidates, but neither is expected to do so.  It should be noted that the "geographical diversity" requirement applies to the first four selections, regardless of partisan affiliation (or non-affiliation).  Four of the five Independents are from Maricopa County, while only one is from another county, specifically Pima.

As such, only one Independent nominee could be selected by one of the legislative leaders, even in the unlikely event that one of them was inclined to think "out of the box" with their choice.

The applications of all of the applicants to the AIRC, not just the nominees, can be found here.

Russell Pearce is now on the clock...

First member named to the new Independent Redistricting Commission: Scott Freeman

From an announcment from Kirk Adams, Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives -

House Speaker Kirk Adams announced today his selection of Scott Freeman to serve on the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission.


“Mr. Freeman is exceptionally qualified for this important role. I am confident he will execute his responsibilities honestly, fairly and with the input of the public in mind,” Adams said.

Freeman, a Phoenix resident and a director at Fennemore Craig, holds a B.S. in Aerospace Engineering from the University of Arizona and a J.D. from Arizona State University. Freeman focuses his practice on litigation matters, including complex products liability, personal injury, and commercial cases. Among other clients, he has represented manufacturers of light truck and passenger tires as well as manufacturers of after-market alternators and starter motors in several state and federal trial and appellate courts. He has appeared in trial courts in Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, New York, and Illinois.

“I am honored that Speaker Adams has entrusted me with the great honor of serving on the Independent Redistricting Commission,” Mr. Freeman said. “The work of this commission is vital to our democracy, and I promise to serve the people of Arizona with dedication and fairness in all of my work and decisions. I look forward to working with other members of the commission as we get about this important task.”

Freeman's application for the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission is here.

Now on the clock: House Democratic Leader, Rep. Chad Campbell.  After his choice is named, Senate President Russell Pearce and Senate Democratic Leader David Schapira will make their selections.