Short attention span musing

...Outsiders *really* shouldn't interfere in primaries.

- An industry PAC tried to influence some AZ legislative races, including the one in my district.

It didn't work.

- A pro-corporate arm of the national Democratic Party helicoptered in and tried to influence the race in AZCD1.

It didn't work.

This phenomenon isn't just limited to AZ.

- A pro-genocide PAC tried to influence the US Senate race in MI.

It didn't work.

Notice a pattern?

...The two major party candidates for Arizona Governor have chosen their running mates - Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs selected the former mayor of Mesa, John Giles (note: this pick is still unofficial and could change), while her Republican challenger Andy Biggs chose former legislator Sine Kerr.

The best thing that can be said about Giles is that he fulfills the one major requirement for any number 2, be they a lieutenant governor candidate or a vice presidential candidate - if things go sideways and the main candidate can't serve a complete term, people will be comfortable with the running mate stepping up and serving out the rest of the term.

The best thing that can be said about Kerr is that she is considered to be more "likeable" than Biggs.  Of course, he has set the bar kind of low in that regard - anyone involved in AZ politics, is available (aka - not running for another office, and isn't named Kari Lake, is more likeable than him.

... Cyclosporiasis (the "explosive diarrhea" parasite) is killing people now.

It's been linked to lettuce supplied by a large corporation with AZ ties, Taylor Farms.

It's gotten to the point where the company's CEO and executives should retain the services of defense attorneys and ask them if bribing a public official is a predicate act under the felony murder rules in the states where people are dying.

Note: I have not been able to find statewide data on the cyclosporiasis outbreak in AZ, but I was able to find some Maricopa County data.

From the website of Maricopa County -

Federal CO river plan; Betcha Jared Polis' 30 pieces aren't water soluble

I don't usually use this platform to comment on national issues, but as this one affects AZ directly, it fits here.

Earlier this week, the federal government announced a plan to deal with the depleted Colorado River, which furnishes waters to a significant portion of the western U.S.

From CNN -

New Colorado River plan will require steep cuts for three states as reservoirs tumble to new lows

California, Arizona and Nevada will be required to slash their water use from the drought-stricken Colorado River by 16 to 20% through 2028, under a federal plan set to be released in the next few days, according to a senior state water official.

But some fear it won’t be enough to save the lifeblood water basin as vital reservoirs plummet toward record lows.

The lower basin states California, Arizona, and Nevada; the upper basin states are Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming.

While all of the lower basin states are facing water cuts (and as the state with the junior-most water rights among those, AZ would face the most devastating cuts), the upper basin states are facing no cuts at all.

From CBS -

Colorado River plan spares upper basin states from mandatory cuts, for now

The U.S. Department of the Interior has issued its plan for how to manage water on the Colorado River. It comes after Colorado and six other states failed to reach an agreement on releases from two key reservoirs - Lake Powell and Lake Mead.

The river provides drinking water for 40 million people, irrigation for 5 million acres of farmland, and hydropower for seven states. It's been shrinking for the last 20 years.

AZ Democrats responded quickly and loudly.

From Governor Katie Hobbs -

After the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation released its Final Environmental Impact Statement for Post-2026 Colorado River Operations, Governor Katie Hobbs issued the following statement:

“Today, the federal government released a broad range of alternatives for how the Colorado River will be managed over the next ten years. Within that range is the opportunity for the federal government to adopt the commonsense, compromise proposal put forward by Lower Basin States for 2027 and 2028. Our proposal is one of the largest conservation programs in Colorado River history and builds on Arizona’s decades-long commitment to responsible water stewardship. While this FEIS still contains unacceptable options that include the federal government forcing Arizona to take the majority of draconian water cutbacks, implementing the Lower Basin agreement would protect Arizona from massive water cuts, distribute reductions more fairly across the Lower Basin States, and provide stability and protection to the water supply that our communities rely upon.

From AZ Senators Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego -

Today, Arizona Senators Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Mark Kelly (D-AZ) released the following statement on the Bureau of Reclamation’s Final Environmental Impact Statement for post-2026 operations of the Colorado River:

“The framework outlined in the Department of Interior’s Final Environmental Impact Statement could place an unfair burden on Arizona, including the possibility of reducing the Lower Basin’s Colorado River allocation by as much as 40 percent, without requiring comparable commitments from the Upper Basin. Arizona, California, and Nevada have already put forward a fair, practical proposal to stabilize Lake Mead and Lake Powell through shared conservation, and that proposal should serve as the foundation for the next set of Colorado River operating guidelines 2027 and 2028.

“We remain committed to working with all seven Basin states, Tribal nations, water users, and the federal government to reach a durable agreement that protects Arizona’s water future, strengthens the Colorado River system, and ensures every Basin partner does its part.”

From the City of Phoenix, and its Mayor, Kate Gallego -

"Solving the Colorado River crisis demands a fair, basin-wide solution in which every stakeholder is asked to sacrifice," Mayor Kate Gallego said. "Instead, the federal government takes aim at Arizona and Lower Basin states even though we continue to do our part and conservation is a core part of our water culture. Phoenix is prepared to use less Colorado River water, but it is wrong to lay a disproportionate share of the burden on Arizona."

Now, here is part where I say the quiet part out loud - 

Cheeto, aka President Trump, is known to be petty and vindictive.

While this "plan" may harm AZ the most, it will still harm California, and Cheeto absolutely HATES CA. 

And he is happy to harm others so long as he can get in a shot at CA.

Of course, Cheeto may consider it a "win-win" situation.

Two of the upper basin states, Utah and Wyoming have Republicans, Trump loyalists both, as governor.  Utah has Spencer Cox while Wyoming has Mark Gordon.  He may consider helping them to be a good thing; maybe not an intentional one, but one he'll take so long as he hurts CA.

The other two states have Democratic governors.

New Mexico has Michelle Lujan Grisham, who is termed-out and isn't running for re-election, so this scheme won't help her.

Colorado has Jared Polis, who earlier this year, infamously commuted the sentence of election denier and Trump ally Tina Peters and had her released from prison.

It seems that Cheeto has (yet again) used public policy to benefit one of his allies and pay a debt.

It's early, but 2030 is coming

...And for the first time in a long time, Arizona Democrats have a deep bench.

Caveat: No elected officials were talked to about this; I truly have no idea what office any of them may be interested in, or even if any person mentioned here is even interested in continuing their political career.

Also, there is an underlying presumption that those seeking reelection to their current offices will succeed in their efforts.  Reality may disagree and doesn't care about presumptions.

This is just idle speculation on my part.

First up - Governor Katie Hobbs, seeking reelection in 2026, will be termed limited in 2030..

May go federal, either U.S. House or U.S. Senate (the seat currently held by Ruben Gallego will be on 2030's ballot).

Attorney General Kris Mayes and Secretary of State Adrian Fontes.  Both seeking reelection in 2026, will be termed limited in 2030..

One or both of them may go for Governor or a federal office.  If they go for the same office, I've already decided which one I'll support in a primary, but won't be angry if the other wins - both have done some very good work for the people of Arizona.

Also, the eventual  2026 nominee for Lieutenant Governor will also be in the mix for Governor in 2030.  As I have no idea who that will be, no picture will be posted.

Wildcard:

Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego.  Current term ends in 2029.  Term limited.

May go federal or statewide, but I don't expect her to primary her ex - she endorsed him in 2024.

Dark horse wildcards:

Tucson Mayor Regina Romero.  Current term ends in 2028.  NOT term limited.

May go federal or statewide, especially if Juan Ciscomani is still in Congress from Southern Arizona.

Tempe Mayor Corey Woods.  Current term ends in 2028.  Not sure if he's term limited.

May go federal or statewide, but may face headwinds/hard feelings over his support for the idea of having the taxpayers of Tempe pick up the tab for an arena for the billionaire-owned Phoenix Coyotes.

Could upend the political calculus for *everyone*:

If U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly wins reelection in 2028 and is on the Democratic presidential ticket in 2028, and that ticket is successful (lots of "ifs" there), that would leave a vacancy in the Senate.  While the Governor of AZ would make an appointment to fill that vacancy, it would only be valid until the next general election.  The winner of that election would then serve out the balance of the term.

Such an election would be in 2030.

An open letter to Arizona governor Katie Hobbs

Dear Governor Hobbs.

Arizona Democrats have a long history of fielding candidates who are R-lite in general election races.

Arizona Democrats have a long history of losing those races.

Your consultants and advisers may tell you otherwise, but don't be R-lite.

People who face a choice between R and R-lite candidates will almost always vote for the authentic thing.

On January 20, Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes observed that Arizona's "stand your ground" laws  and gun culture could help turn encounters between Arizonans and ICE agents violent.

On January 29, Arizona's Senate Republicans enthusiastically clutched their pearls and approved SR1036, calling on Mayes to retract her comments and resign her position.

Also on January 29, you emulated, but went milder than them and called for her to retract her comments.

She shouldn't retract a damn thing - she wasn't wrong.

Also, while there may be Rs worthy of being emulated, AZ Senate Rs aren't among them - they're profoundly lousy public servants and wastes of DNA as human beings.

By going R-lite, you are all but guaranteeing that the person who emerges from the R primary for governor will be victorious in the general election.

Right now, I think that will be Andy Biggs.  Not because I think that he's their strongest candidate electorally, but because he's the worst human being among their "Big Three" (the other two aren't decent human beings, but Biggs is worse).

And R voters have a track record of choosing the lousiest people in their primaries.

Me

AZ political predictions 2026

 This is completely tongue-in-cheek (except for the parts that come true).  And mostly lege-oriented. 😃

January -

At the opening of the 2026 session of the Arizona State Legislature, Governor Katie Hobbs delivers her annual state of the state address.  When she talks about putting some guardrails on the state's school voucher program, the entire R caucus stands, turns around, drops trou, and moons her.

She responds by pulling out a straw and pelting them with spitballs made up of wads of paper from cut-up Culture War/GOP War on Society.

The GOPers express umbrage at being pelted with spitballs.

Hobbs responds by telling them that spitballs are plan A.

Plan B is a 20 gauge with rock salt loads.

The Rs opine that spitballs are OK with them.

February -

Michael Bidwill, owner of the NFL's Arizona Cardinals, announces that the team is so bad that it needs a bigger change than firing a head coach and, as he doesn't want to become Jerry Jones, he will step aside from his day-to-day duties there.

Since that will leave a large gap in his daily schedule, he's going to run for state legislature.

As a Republican (of course).

March -

Rep. Gail Griffin (R-LD19) introduces a bill to give all of Arizona's water and other natural resources to various corporations.

It passes the House on a party line vote.

On another party line vote, they pass a budget that eliminates all taxes on the wealthy and corporations, and pays for their largesse by defunding public education, public health, hell, "public" anything.

Governor Hobbs sends it back to the legislature.  After vetoing it, loudly and publicly.

April -

Candidates for 2026 turn in their nominating signatures...except for termed-out State Treasurer Kimberly Yee, a putative candidate for State Superintendent of Public Instruction (SPI).  She announces that she was always more interested in the Lieutenant Governor's gig than an SPI gig.

Griffin's pro-corporate/anti-Arizonan bill passes the Senate on a party line vote.  Governor Hobbs vetoes it and celebrates that veto with a Snoopy dance.

From Zazzle -

The legislature  is still in session with no budget in sight, so they while away the time by sending Governor Hobbs spitball material for next year's state of the state address.

May - 

The legislature finally passes a state budget that Governor Hobbs can sign and adjourns sine die.  The majority of them don't care about the public as much as they care about getting out of Phoenix and hitting the campaign trail as many of them face primary challenges.

June -

Cheeto makes a campaign appearance in Arizona, speechifying for his endorsees.

He makes his speech all about him and his professed grievances.

His endorsees and other MAGAts genuflect.

July -

Andy Biggs wins the R primary for Arizona Governor and almost immediately and publicly starts pondering who should be his running mate as his Lt. Governor candidate.  The field is quickly narrowed to Kimberly Yee and Mark Finchem.

August -

As his Lt. Gov running mate, Biggs selects...Kari Lake.  She can't win a statewide race, but she has one strength - she may be the one person in AZ politics who is more intensely disliked by those who have met her than Biggs.  Biggs thinks he'll look good by comparison.

September -

Cheeto returns to AZ to stump for R candidates. 

During his speech, he shows his solidarity with the Rs in the AZ legislature/dementia by turning around, dropping trou, and mooning the audience.  

The R candidates and other MAGAts swoon.

October -

Reading the falling poll numbers for R officeholders and candidates, Cheeto and his acolytes do some preliminary blame shifting, complaining about fraud in elections.

November -

An electoral bloodbath takes place, with Rs up and down the ballot getting their butts handed to them.

Cheeto and his acolytes try to annul the elections because they don't like the results.

It doesn't work, with most folks saying "welcome to democracy."

December -

Kari Lake is a party to a lawsuit seeking to overturn the 2026 results.

She loses that lawsuit.

Most candidates yawn and start preparing for runs in 2030 (statewide races) or 2028 (county or legislative races).

Short Attention Span musing

 ...Making official something that was already known, Governor Katie Hobbs, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, and Attorney General Kris Mayes filed Statements of Interest for the 2026 election, seeking reelection to the current offices.

Each has already formed a committee for reelection.

...In the "Arizona Republicans behaving badly" Department, State Senator Carine Werner used her position as a member of governing board of the Scottsdale Unified School District to insult a District employee.

From KJZZ, written by Bridget Dowd -

Scottsdale Unified board member faces backlash after publicly calling employee 'morbidly obese'

A Scottsdale Unified School District board member is facing backlash for calling a district employee "morbidly obese" during a public meeting.

The district’s director of Nutrition Services, Patti Bilbrey was giving a presentation about a program that distributes meals to kids over the summer.

...Speaking of "Arizona Republicans behaving badly", when good ol' reliable Warren Petersen (the President of the State Senate) isn't going after a Democratic Senator, Analise Ortiz, for telling people where ICE is in AZ, he's going after Arizona PBS for the way they handled a debate in 2022.

From KXNV, written by Ben Brown, dated 8/14/2025 -

Arizona lawmaker wants FCC to revoke state’s PBS broadcast license

Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen is calling on the Federal Communications Commission to revoke Arizona PBS’s broadcast license over what he claims was “viewpoint discrimination” during the 2022 gubernatorial race between Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs.

In a letter to the FCC, Petersen alleges “Arizona PBS violated legal rules, contractual requirements, and long-standing traditions to improperly put its thumb on the scale of the 2022 Arizona governor’s race.”

The welfare for the wealthy bill is on Gov. Hobbs' desk

And I urge all Arizonans to let her know their feelings on the subject.  

I already did -

Please veto HB2704, the tax money giveaway to the already wealthy.  Like ESAs/school vouchers, not only doesn't it benefit society, it takes money away from public services.

Before final passage by the legislature, this was a topic for a post.

I was right about one thing - the House handled this bill, a giveaway of public monies to Ken Kendrick (passed on Monday) before doing a budget for the public (temper tantrum on this thrown on Tuesday).

There were a few Democrats who voted for the measure; they're all members of "The Usual Suspects" caucus.

HB2704 is here.

A top of the ballot race may not be the best place for a candidate w/o elected office experience to start their electoral career

This doesn't apply to Presidential elections, only to U.S. Senate seats from AZ and the Arizona governorship, which are usually the highest level Arizona-based offices on a ballot in AZ.

It's also not a partisan thing as both Ds and Rs fall on both sides of this.

Lastly, when I say "no experience in lower-level offices", I'm not talking about school board or city/town council seats (with one exception) - I didn't look that far into the background of any candidate.

It's not absolutely true - people with experience in lower-level elected offices have lost races for higher office*, and at least one person with no experience in elected office has won a top-of-the ballot race.

* = usually they ran against incumbents or other people with experience in lower-level elected offices.

In the following list, an asterisk (*) next to a candidate's name means that candidate won the race.

"Nada" means that neither office was on the ballot.  I believe that the next time that will happen is 2032..

The races (I started in 1994 because I moved here in 1993) -

Twice, Kari Lake has run for office (2024 [Senate] and 2022 [Governor]), and twice she has lost.

She's not running for governor again, but the two main candidates in the R primary for that office in 2026 exhibit some of the same weaknesses as her.

Andy Biggs, former legislator and current Congressman, is disliked by most people who meet him.  As is Lake.

Karrin Taylor Robson is a rich/famous person looking to buy an elected office.  As was Lake.

Cheeto has famously endorsed both, which may help them in a Republican primary.

However, given his monetization of public service for himself (and his allies) and his cratering of it for everyone else (ya know,  the public), that endorsement may not help in a general election (I'm presuming that one of them will win the primary).

In 2022, D Mark Kelly defeated R Blake Masters for US Senate.  Masters was widely seen as a carpetbagger serving as a rich guy's tool/proxy and had never been in elected office.

In 2020, D Mark Kelly defeated R Martha McSally for a US Senate seat.  While Kelly had no experience in public office and McSally was a member of Congress, he was retired from the military and could pick the brain of his wife, former member of Congress and state legislator, Gabby Giffords.  Those things seem to have helped him.

In 2014 and 2018, R Doug Ducey defeated both Ds David Garcia and Fred Duval in their runs for governor.  In 2018, Ducey was an incumbent; in 2014,he may not have been an incumbent, but had one term as state treasurer under his belt.  While Garcia and Duval had stretches in public life, neither had been in elected office.

In 2012, R Jeff Flake defeated D Richard Carmona for US Senate.  Carmona had public service behind him, but Flake was a member of Congress.

In 2010, R Jan Brewer defeated D Terry Goddard for governor.  While he had been in elected office before and she was an unelected incumbent as Governor.  However, she had been Secretary of State and in the state legislature.

In 2010, R John McCain defeated D Rodney Glassman.  While Glassman had previously been part of the Tucson City Council, McCain was an incumbent.

Glassman changed his party registration (many years ago) and, in 2026, will be running for state Attorney General as a Republican.

Glassman may be able to run as a uniter - the one thing that activists in both major parties can agree on is that most of them dislike him.

In 2006, R Jon Kyl defeated D Jim Pederson for US Senate.  Kyl was an incumbent; Pederson had never been in office.

In 2006, D Janet Napolitano defeated R Len Munsil.  She was an incumbent; he had never been in office.

In 2004, R John McCain defeated D Stuart Starky for US Senate.  McCain was an incumbent, and, to the best of my knowledge, Starky has never been in office.

2004 was before I became politically active, so my knowledge is spotty.

In 2002, D Janet Napolitano defeated R Matt Salmon.  At that point, he was a member of Congress but she had run statewide and been Attorney General.

In 1998, R John McCain defeated D Ed Ranger for US Senate.  McCain was an incumbent, and, to the best of my knowledge, Ranger has never been in office.

In 1998, R Jane Hull defeated D Paul Johnson.  While he had been mayor of Phoenix, she was an unelected incumbent who had been Secretary of State and in the state legislature.

In 1994, R Jon Kyl defeated D Sam Coppersmith for US Senate.  Kyl was an incumbent; Coppersmith had never been in office (so far as I know).

In 1994, R Fife Symington defeated D Eddie Basha for governor. Symington was an incumbent; Basha was a grocery magnate.

In short, the vast majority of races hold true to the title of this post, with a couple of noted exceptions.

What's old is new again. New/Old political term: Logrolling

From Merriam-Webster, emphasis added by me -

The planned giveaway of public funds to Derrick Hall, owner of the Diamondbacks, is still alive.

From Civic Engagement Beyond Voting's weekly newsletter -

[snip]

The bad: stadium giveaway in the budget. Lawmakers’ pay-to-play billionaire stadium giveaway, currently stalled amid an outpouring of fierce public opposition, may get stuffed into the budget. This practice of lumping together various potentially unrelated provisions, known as “logrolling,” is intended to effectively force lawmakers to support measures they would otherwise oppose.

Of course, the likelihood of the giveaway being approved by the legislature and governor hasn't stopped apologists for the wealthy from doing some fearmongering.

From Arizona Sports -

Arizona Chamber of Commerce president doesn’t want D-backs to become ‘Utah Pika’

The Arizona Diamondbacks’ proposed tax recapture bill, according to multiple accounts, is in the final stages of approval in the Senate. But until it passes a vote of approval, there will be concern lurking for the D-backs and the small businesses in downtown Phoenix that Chase Field supports.

Arizona Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Danny Seiden on KTAR News 92.3’s The Mike Broomhead Show presented the urgency he sees with the still-tenuous situation.

Seiden likes to proclaim that he's "pro-Arizona" (in fact, he did so during this interview), but he's more pro-profit than pro-Arizona.

All of this inspired me to send a message to Governor Hobbs on the topic via her website.  My message was short and sweet.

The content of that message -

Governor Hobbs -

Please don't allow the rolling of a giveaway of public money/a stadium deal into the budget.

Taking public money away from public purposes and using it to line private pockets doesn't benefit society in any way, shape, or form.

I have very little influence with Governor Hobbs and the folks around her (OK -none:) ), so two things won't surprise me (not a prediction of events, but these developments wouldn't be shocking, either):

1. The giveaway of public money to pay for renovations for a billionaire's plaything while public services are cut may happen.

Regardless of public opposition to the scheme.

2. It's early, so a 'big name" may yet jump into the race and mount a primary challenge to Governor Hobbs.)

I *do* recommend that all readers send a message to Governor Hobbs.  The legislature and its members can be counted on to ignore the will of the people; Hobbs may not do so.

Hey! I occasionally disagree with professional journalists

Admittedly, it's not a huge disagreement; more of a quibble over some details.

Last week, I published a post on the coming Lieutenant Governor sweepstake in AZ.

Now the actual pros (ya know, *real* journalists) are getting into the act.

From the Arizona Agenda, written by Hank Stephenson and Nicole Ludden -

The VP of AZ

Political prognosticators are already labeling Arizona’s 2026 governor’s race a “toss-up” and debating the strengths and weaknesses of Gov. Katie Hobbs and her two potential challengers, Republicans Karrin Taylor Robson and Andy Biggs.

But the 2026 gubernatorial election will be played by a whole different set of rules than Arizona politicos are used to.

That’s because, for the first time in Arizona’s history, when voters weigh their options for their next governor, they’ll also be hiring a lieutenant governor.

It's a good story, and I recommend reading the entire thing, but I *do* disagree with it one thing.

The article goes on to discuss various possibilities/candidates in a "pro/con" format, and the "con" for a Democratic possible may not be much of a bad thing, IMO. (emphasis added by me)

• Lt. Gov. Anna Tovar

  Pros: Tovar is a former lawmaker, corporation commissioner and mayor of Tolleson who knows her way around government. Like Romero, she’s a Latina (former) mayor. And she’s also an old Hobbs ally who the governor appointed to the State Board of Education (although that tenure was cut short when the Senate refused to confirm her).

  Cons: She comes with some political baggage, including an ethics censure during her time on the Corporation Commission and an episode in 2013 when she led a coup against Senate Democratic Leader Leah Landrum Taylor, who is black, and Landrum Taylor accused her of racism.

Ummm...in 2014, Taylor endorsed Michele Reagan, the R candidate for AZ Secretary of State.

I don't know if Tovar is a bigot (if she is, that's an automatic disqualifier for any position, except maybe for one in the Cheeto administration), but a personality conflict with a known quisling?

Most assuredly, *not* a disqualifier.

And that "censure" from the Corporation Commission?

Partisan hackery at ugliest.

From the Arizona Capitol Times, written by Reagan Priest, dated 12/17/2024 -

Corp Comm Republicans censure outgoing Democrat 

for alleged statutory, ethics violations

Republicans on the Arizona Corporation Commission voted Tuesday to censure outgoing Democratic Commissioner Anna Tovar and refer a complaint to the Maricopa County Attorney’s office, saying she violated open meeting laws and the commission’s code of ethics.

At an open staff meeting, three Republicans on the commission said an investigation into Tovar’s office found a letter sent by Tovar on Nov. 6 disclosed information discussed in executive session and constituted harassment of a commission staff member. The commissioners also voted to refer violations of Arizona open meeting law to the Maricopa County Attorney’s office.

I don't know if Tovar (or anyone else) is interested in the Lieutenant Governor (LG) gig, and I don't who Hobbs (or any other candidate) is looking at, but I truly expect the speculation to continue until the LG candidates are named.

Idle speculation time: Lieutenant Governor

In honor of Republican candidate for governor Karrin Taylor Robson already running TV spots...well more than a year before her primary.

In 2022, Arizona voters approved Proposition 131, which created a Lieutenant Governor (Lt. Governor) position in Arizona politics.

The language is now part of Article 5, Section 1, Paragraph C of the Arizona State Constitution.  The candidates for lt. governor will be named by the candidates for governor before the general election.

It's time for some speculation about who they might name. :)

Note: this is NOT a prediction; my prognostication abilities when it comes to internal R politics are less than optimal

My thinking is that the primary candidate for the will be current state treasurer Kimberly Yee.  She's termed out of the treasurer's slot, and while she may run for governor (again!), my guess is that the only way she gets through a primary with Robson and Andy Biggs is if they split the MAGA vote and she gets the rest.

Probably not gonna happen.

I *do* think that she'd help Biggs more in the general - if nothing else, she's seen as less crazy than him.

On the other hand, if/when he feels it necessary to boost his nutjob bonafides, Kari Lake is available.

On the Democratic side, I have no clue (not even for idle speculation).  Though, I bet that whoever is interested in the gig is busily jockeying both for position and for Governor Katie Hobbs' attention.

Legislative schedule - week starting 4/20/2025

"Hurry up and wait time" continues at the Capitol while rank-and-file Rs and all Ds wait for the leadership in the lege and Governor Hobbs to work out a state budget.

Which may not happen until it hits 100 every day in Phoenix and the lege wants to get out of town before it hits 110 every day.

Schedules can, and frequently do, change at any moment when the legislature is in session.  So pay attention.

Note: HHR refers to a hearing room in the House building; SHR refers to one in the Senate building.

Note2: Generally, I'll only specify bills that look to spread propaganda.  Other bills may be more conventionally bad (think: corrupt or other misuses of public monies and/or authority).  My recommendation is that if an agenda covers an area of interest to you, read the entire agenda.

Note3: Each chamber's respective Rules Committee meets on Monday, the House's in HHR4, generally at 1 p.m. and the Senate's in Senate Caucus Room 1, generally also at 1 p.m.  Both committees serve as rubber stamps for bills leadership wants to be advanced and gatekeepers for measures that leadership wants stopped.

Note4: Meeting start times may be listed, but are flexible.  Before journeying to the Capitol or viewing the meeting online, verify the start time.

Note5: Watch for strikers, or strike everything amendments.  Those involve inserting language that replaces the entirety of a bill.  Those can be introduced at any time and can make a previously harmless bill become a very bad one. 

On Monday 4/21 - No committees scheduled to meet, at this point.

On Tuesday, 4/22 

-

Arizona Off Highway Vehicle Study Committee meets at 2 p.m. in SHR109.  On the agenda: no bills, four presentations.

On Wednesday 4/23 

-

Joint Committee on Capital Review (JCCR) meets at 9 a.m. in SHR109.  On the agenda: no bills; three items slated to he voted on en masse as part of the consent agenda.

Senate Regulatory Affairs and Government Efficiency meets at 9 a.m. in SHR109.  On the agenda: three executive nominations for the Arizona Racing Commission.

Normally, I'd see two meetings scheduled for the same place and time and speculate that one would have to be moved, but I expect the JCCR meeting will be *very* short.  The meetings may be piggy-backed.

On Thursday, 4/24 - nada.

Legislative schedule - week starting 3/30/2025 UPDATE

There's been an addition to this week's schedule of committee meetings at the state legislature.

On Thursday, 4/3 

-

One committee meeting has been added.

Senate Director Nominations meets at 8 a.m. in SHR109.  On the agenda: no bills; two agency director nominations.  Scheduled to be on the receiving end of Jake Hoffman's bile the committee's official questions - Paul E. Brierley for the AZ Department of Agriculture and Gaetano Testini, Industrial Commission of AZ

Of course,  the real target of Hoffman's bile will be AZ governor Katie Hobbs

From the governor's website -

Hobbs

Of course2, Hoffman may reserve some of his bile output for Adrian Fontes, AZ Secretary of State.  Hoffman spent some of is time this week introducing Alexander Kolodin, a far right candidate to replace Fontes.

From the AZSOS' website -

Fontes

Biggs is in (sort of) in the race for AZ Governor

Pointed at this by a fundraising text from Team Hobbs.

I say Congressman Andy Biggs is only "sort of" in because, at this point, he's only filed a statement of interest (SOI), not formed a committee yet.  However, it's early yet.  One of his presumed opponents in the primary, Karrin Taylor Robson, hasn't done either, though she's already secured Cheeto's endorsement.

From the list of statements of interest filed with the AZ SOS -

My guess: Biggs won't be last "big name" to express an interest in the race for Arizona governor.

Whoever gets through the R primary for the chance to face off against Governor Katie Hobbs will be a supporter of Cheeto.

That person will also make voting for Hobbs easy, because it will be a vote for competence over extremism.

What will be more interesting, in a "get out your popcorn" sort of way, will be the Republican primary contest to replace Biggs in Congress.  

His CD5 district is a safe one for Rs, meaning that the R primary winner will almost certainly win in the general election.

One person, former legislator Travis Grantham, has already filed a statement of interest in the race for CD5.

But he won't be the last to do so.

All of the Rs in that race will have a platform of "I'm Trumpier than thou".

No one, not even Grantham, has yet formed a committee with the FEC as of the writing of this post.

Interesting side note: Grantham filed his SOI 2.5 hours after Biggs did so.  I'm guessing that he got a phone call.