The 2012 primaries: one major disappointment, a minor one, but otherwise, no real surprises

Tuesday's primaries are over, and the post-game analysis is in full swing.  As I wasn't able to live blog the results last night due to being otherwise occupied (at David Schapira's election night gathering in Tempe.  Hard to type when it is too dark to see the keyboard... :) ).

There were a couple of disappointments, but the only surprises Tuesday were in margins of victory (or loss, depending on your perspective), not in end results.

First, the disappointments -

- The biggest disappointment of the evening was, of course, David Schapira's second place finish, behind Kyrsten Sinema, in the Democratic primary in CD9.  He ran a positive and energetic campaign, earned the respect of many people who had never heard of him before this campaign (and reinforced the respect of the many people who *had* heard of him), and has a bright future despite this one loss, the first in his electoral career.

- A minor disappointment, but not a surprise, was the ability of LD23 R state reps John Kavanagh and Michelle Ugenti to fend off the challenge of Jennifer Petersen, a member of the Scottsdale school district governing board.  Petersen has a reputation as a pragmatic public servant, ergo, she had almost no chance of getting through a Republican primary.  Her north Scottsdale district used to send a highly-respected moderate R to the lege in the person of Carolyn Allen.  Now, the most "moderate" is State Sen. Michelle Reagan, and she has gone hard to the right, probably in preparation for an expected Congressional or statewide run.  The winner of the CD9 race in November, regardless of partisan affiliation, should probably start oppo research on her, at just about the time that the polls close.


Now, the (mostly pleasant) surprises -

- In the LD25 Senate R primary, disgraced former state senator Russell Pearce lost big to Mesa businessman Bob Worsley in his bid to return to the senate.  He has now lost a recall election by double digit percentage points, where he argued that if only Republicans could've voted in it (like, say, as in a primary), he would have won.  Well, he got the primary that he wanted, and...he lost by double digit percentage points.

- The other Pearce, Lester, lost his primary race for the 2nd District seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors to businessman Steve Chucri.  It was by an equally resounding margin (double digits, baby!).

- Pearce ally John Fillmore lost his bid for the LD16 state senate R nomination to Pearce foe Rich Crandall.

- In the one victory for the Pearce machine, Sylvia Allen, currently in the state senate, won her primary race for the Republican nomination for the 3rd District seat on the Navajo County Board of Supervisors.  She won with 80% of the vote, but her opponent ran as a $500 Exemption candidate, while she had the thousands of dollars that she transferred from the legislative campaign committee.

- In the R primary for US Senate, it wasn't surprising to see Jeff Flake defeat Wil Cardon, nor even to do so soundly.  However, Flake didn't just win soundly - he absolutely thumped Cardon, gaining more than three times as many votes as Cardon. 

Damn!

- In Pinal County, embattled Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu held off multiple challengers for the R nomination, which in itself isn't much of a surprise - he was expected to win a plurality of the votes because the other candidates would split the anti-Babeu vote.  What is surprising is that Babeu got 61% of the vote.  The other three candidates combined didn't equal his total.

- In the LD24 D primaries, Katie Hobbs (Senate) and Lela Alston and Chad Campbell (House) easily turned aside the challenges from Ken Cheuvront (Senate) and his mom Jean and Tom Nerini (House), respectively.  While Hobbs was clearly the better candidate in her race, Cheuvront had money and name recognition on his side, so Hobbs' margin of victory was a bit of a surprise (>20 percentage points).

- In the CD6 R primary, freshman Congressman David Schweikert defeated fellow freshman Ben Quayle.  As a Democrat, I viewed that race much like I viewed the 2000 World Series between the Yankees and the Mets as a Red Sox fan - I hoped both would lose.  It didn't work out that way, but at least one lost. :)

- In the City of Scottsdale's mayoral race, incumbent Jim Lane received the most votes, which was no surprise.  What was surprising was his margin of victory - he gained a majority of votes cast, easily avoiding a November runoff against one of his challengers - businessman/community activist John Washington or businessman Drew Bernhardt.


Democratic primary results from Maricopa County are here (state and federal) and here (county)..
Republican primary results from Maricopa County are here (state and federal) and here (county).
Other party and non-partisan results from Maricopa County are here.
Results from the AZ Secretary of State are here.

Democrats: Beware Republican front groups bearing endorsements

This being a year in which Democrats are expected to make some serious gains (yes, even in Arizona), many groups noted for their slavish, even monomaniacal, support of all things and candidates Republican are wading into the Democratic side of the ballot.  They've been issuing endorsements and spending money in D primaries.

Generally speaking, there are just to "primary" reasons to do so (yes, pun intended :) ) -

1.  They're trying to give a boost to a candidate they consider to be weaker in a general election.  The Phoenix Law Enforcement Association (PLEA) tends to go this route (note: their "Endorsements" page is blank for some reason, but they have issued endorsements in the past and in the current election cycle).

2.  They think that the candidate in question will be receptive to their entreaties if/when the candidate wins the election.

AZBlueMeanie at Blog for Arizona has noticed such activity in a race in southern AZ, and now there is evidence of it here in Maricopa County.

A assemblage of "independent" expenditure groups has paid for and released a mail piece supporting Ken Cheuvront in the LD24 race for state senate against current State Representative Katie Hobbs.

A quick look at some of the listed sponsors of the piece:

The Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce?  Headed by Todd Sanders?  Endorsed Jan Brewer for Governor in 2010.  And Sanders worked for the Republican caucus in the AZ House until a few years ago.

The Arizona Cattlemen's Association?  Headed by Bas Aja?  The last time I looked, there wasn't any ranch land in LD24, which covers a swath stretching across south Scottsdale and central and eastern Phoenix.  And Aja?  He's a Republican PC in Buckeye.


A mailer from Cheuvront's campaign touts another "special" endorsement -

The Arizona Multi Housing Association (AZ MHA)?  This one may actually be about the *next* election.  One of the most persistent rumors in AZ's political circles is that Cheuvront is going to run for Justice of the Peace in two years because a term as JP will quadruple his elected official pension.

The Multi Housing Association's members tend to be involved in evictions.  Lots of evictions.

And JPs?  They adjudicate evictions.  Lots of evictions.

Think the AZ MHA would like a JP who's inclined to turn a blind eye when they cut a few corners in the eviction actions?

Bonus endorsement quibble:  The endorsement that's implied, but not directly claimed.  Mostly because the endorser actually supports another candidate.

Check out the quote from former Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon.

It makes it seem as if he has endorsed Cheuvront, yet doesn't directly state that as fact.

Which is good for Cheuvront, because Gordon actually endorsed Katie Hobbs.

Oopsie.


Note:  In the interests of full disclosure, not that I've tried to hide it, I support and have already voted for Hobbs.