...Expect more "names" to enter these races (and more)...
- the former sheriff of Pinal County, Mark Lamb, has filed a Statement of Interest (SOI) with the AZSOS for a run at replacing Andy Biggs in CD5.
...as was widely expected, the current chair of the AZGOP, Gina Swoboda has throw her hat in the CD1 race to replace David Schweikert - she's formed a committee with the FEC -
Both Biggs and Schweikert are running for AZ Governor.
This covers covers state level candidates only, and then only those candidates that I've deemed as having a legit chance of winning their race or being "interesting". If a reader wants to know the numbers for a candidate not included here, please let me know in a comment.
David Schweikert is listed here, but he entered the Republican primary for AZ Governor outside of Q3, so he had nothing to report. His Q4 fundraising should be illuminating.
Elijah Norton's (R - AZ Treasurer) robust COH number in spite of raising no funds in this quarter is due to a large loan he made to own campaign in a previous quarter.
Alexander Kolodin (R - AZ SOS) loaned his own campaign $52K during the quarter but paid back $2K during the quarter, so the debt is $50K.
[Edit on 10/19]
Mea Culpa - I made a typo on Rodney Glassman's COH number, as in "I forgot a digit".
His actual COH total is $2,826,323.83, not what I entered in my original post.
I apologize for the error; it was unintentional but regrettable.
[/end edit]
This is a "horserace-y" kind of post. I will criticize the MSM for focusing on horserace issues in their stories on politics, but I'm not MSM so I can do this.
While most of the stories/talk about David Schweikert's impact on the Republican primary for Governor of Arizona, but his switch of primary races affects more than a single contest.
While his move affects many, even all, races on the ballot (open seats in Congress are rare, so everyone and their grandmother is looking at entering the race), I'll just focus on two here - Congressional District 1 (CD1) and Legislative District 3 (LD3).
All of the incumbents in those districts are currently Republicans.
The voter registration advantage in CD1 favors Rs, but is seen as poachable by Ds.
Perhaps less poachable now that the ethically-challenged Schweikert has stepped aside, but still poachable.
A lot of people, mostly Democrats, are looking at the race; however, *many* Rs are rumored to be considering entering the race.
Among the folks being talked about: Gina Swoboda, current chair of the AZGOP, and at least two sitting state legislators, Joe Chaplik and Matt Gress. Others may be looking at the race, self-funding business folks and Cheeto-friendly celebrities, but I don't know who they are yet.
CD1: These are the people who have filed Statements of Interest (SOIs) with the AZ Secretary of State (AZSOS) and/or formed committees with the FEC:
*** = Incumbent and announced candidate for Arizona Governor.
The date listed is the date the potential candidate filed the SOI and/or most recently formed a committee with the FEC.
The ID Number for committees is the number given to them by the FEC.
The LD3 district basically covers North Scottsdale and Fountain Hills as is [ahem] less poachable (OK, I think it's a safe R district) -
LD3 State Representative: These are the people who have filed Statements of Interest (SOIs) with the AZ Secretary of State (AZSOS) and/or formed committees with the AZSOS
* = Incumbent
** - Incumbent and announced candidate for Arizona SOS.
The date listed is the date the potential candidate filed the SOI and/or most recently formed a committee with the AZSOS.
The ID Number for committees is the number given to them by the AZSOS.
This race, already wide open with incumbent Alexander Kolodin running for AZSOS, may be further upended if incumbent Chaplik chooses to mount a campaign for CD1.
The incumbent State Senator, John "I never met a government check I don't like...for me, anyway" Kavanagh of Fountain Hills, may be too old for a run at Congress (far from a sure thing); even if he won, he may not want to deal with the cross country travel necessitated by such a victory.
Note: not everyone who files an SOI or forms a committee will appear on a ballot. In fact, many probably won't. Also, it's still early - people not on either list may yet enter one of these races.
Incumbent R Congressman David Schweikert has withdrawn from his bid for reelection to Congress, and instead, will enter the R primary for governor of Arizona.
From AZMirror, written by Caitlin Sievers -
David Schweikert abandons Congress to enter Arizona governor’s race
Longtime Republican U.S. Rep. David Schweikert has dropped his congressional reelection bid to run for Arizona governor.
Schweikert, who is in his eighth term in Congress, will join U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs and businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson in the Republican primary to determine who will face Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in the 2026 general election.
Schweikert told the Arizona Republic that he was tired of the struggle to get anything accomplished in Congress and worried that Robson couldn’t win the primary and Biggs couldn’t defeat Hobbs, who narrowly beat Republican Kari Lake to take the Governor’s Office in 2022.
To date, 16 total folks have filed statements of interest (SOI) with the AZSOS in running for the CD1 seat, 12 Ds, 4 Rs (though I expect that those figures will increase shortly). Not everyone who file an SOI will actually run - for example, Schweikert filed one for CD1 in February.
As of this writing, he hasn't filed one for governor, nor has he formed a committee for such a run.
Schweikert said that his reason for leaving Congress was the "struggle."
Betcha the real reason was that he knew he was vulnerable to challengers in both the congressional primary and general elections.
While his run for governor is something of a longshot, he's got more a chance there if Karrin Taylor Robson and Andy Biggs go after the same voters and end up canceling out each other.
Part of my Sunday morning routine is to watch Sunday Square Off at 8 a.m. on KPNX (Phoenix channel 12), with Brahm Resnick.
Today, they reported a rumor that current CD1 Congressman, David Schweikert, is looking at running for AZ Governor.. The rumor was originally floated by Schweikert and later confirmed by his camp.
My guess is that it's not going to happen - if he differentiates himself by running as MAGA-lite, he'll be smoked in the MAGA-dominated R primary, and if he embraces his inner MAGAt, the MAGA types won't believe him and will vote for Karrin Taylor Robson or Andy Biggs anyway, both being endorsed by Cheeto.
Having said all that, I agree with the R member of the panel on the show, who opined the Schweikert may have sending a message to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).
The message being that they'll need to spend some money in order to retain the seat.
More interesting was the speculation that he may retire completely - while he's thought of as vulnerable, he's been in one office or another since 1991 and he's 63 - he may simply not to want to deal with hassle of running for office.
He personally is considered to be vulnerable (he has some ethical issues), the district, while not overwhelmingly R, isn't actually that competitive.
From the website of the Arizona Secretary of State -
Mylie Biggs (R-Chip Off The Old Block) is a candidate for the state senate seat in LD14, currently held by Senate President Warren Petersen, termed out and running for Arizona Attorney General.
She's the daughter of Andy Biggs, a MAGA Congressman and 2026 candidate for AZ Governor.
From the website of the Arizona Secretary of State:
Her Statement of Interest (SOI) -
.Her committee information -
As of this writing, no other R has filed an SOI or formed a committee in order to challenge her in the primary (I expect that to change as the cycle goes on).
Given the overwhelming R registration advantage in the district, the victor in the R primary should win the general election.
However, she's made things interesting.
From KJZZ, written by Camryn Sanchez -
Biggs’ daughter said women shouldn’t hold public office. But she’s running for AZ state Senate
Congressman Andy Biggs’ daughter Mylie said women shouldn’t hold public office. But she’s running for a seat in the Arizona Senate.
Mylie Biggs, 25, is running for the Legislature in Arizona’s 14th legislative district, which encompasses most of Gilbert.
Last August, she appeared on a podcast called The Matt MacCurdy Program and said she thinks women should not hold office in general, but instead should run the home.
Assuming that she goes on to be victorious in the primary, she seems to be ready for membership in the R caucus -
She's already got "open hypocrite" part down pat.
Normally, this sort of hypocrisy would be disqualifying in a Democratic primary.
In an R primary? This may help her coast to victory.
Last week, I published a post about the campaign reports for federal candidates.
Today, it's the turn for state-level candidates.
Some caveats:
It's still very early, so this only includes candidates who formed committees with the AZSOS before the Q2 2025 deadline (6/30/2025). Candidates who haven't yet formed a committee or formed one in Q3 aren't covered here. This also isn't comprehensive - I included only people who I believed are legitimate candidates. That may...OK, *will*…change as the cycle goes on.
This isn't meant to predict who will actually be on a ballot.
Nor is it meant to predict who will win any primary.
Some definitions:
COH = Cash on Hand
SOI = Statement of Interest
NA = "No activity" report filed
Some of this is interesting -
In the hotly-contested R primary for governor, Karrin Taylor Robson wildly out raised her main opponent in Q2, Andy Biggs. Apparently. However, she loaned her campaign the majority of the funds she raised. While her overall number is more than $2 million greater than Biggs', her funds raised from non-candidate sources was a little less than $150K more than Biggs.
Another red flag for Robson? Her loans greatly exceed her cash on hand. She looks like she is trying to buy the nomination.
In the race for the soon-to-be-vacant Arizona State Treasurer slot (incumbent Kimberly Yee is termed out), R candidate Elijah Norton (formerly the treasurer for the Arizona Republican Party and a 2022 candidate in AZCD1) loaned his campaign his ENTIRE Q2 fundraising take.
Like Robson, he appears to trying to buy the election.
The man who would be governor getting his hate on both for brown people and the judicial branch at the same time.
Maybe it's an attempt to show R primary voters that he's capable of multitasking.
From a post on Bluesky (because I refuse to link to Faux News if another option is available) -
From State Affairs, written by Reagan Priest -
For Andy Biggs, Arizona elections are a family affair
U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, who is running in the Republican primary for governor, might not be the only member of the Biggs family hitting the campaign trail in Arizona next year.
Mylie Biggs, the Congressman’s daughter, filed a statement of interest to run for Senate in Legislative District 14 to fill the vacant seat left by Senate President Warren Petersen, who is term-limited and running for attorney general.
Mylie currently works at the Arizona Free Enterprise Club.
The rest is behind a paywall.
She filed a statement of interest on 6/18 -
She formed a committee for the run on 6/20 -
If she wins election to the state legislature, we may learn the answer to one question -
Does the Arizona Free Enterprise Club issue 1099s to its pet legislators, or do they just use brown paper bags?
As of right now, she's only candidate for LD14 State Senate (no SOIs or committees), but it's early still.
Maybe the new GOP symbol should be from Medium (note: I don't agree with the author's "both sides" premise. but I like the pic)-
From Arizona Capitol Times, written by Reagan Priest, dated 6/10 -
Freedom Caucus announces primary challengers for
Arizona Corporation Commission
Two Republican state representatives announced their plans to challenge two incumbent Corporation Commissioners in 2026, saying the two commissioners have not done enough to support President Donald Trump’s energy agenda and protect ratepayers.
Reps. David Marshall, R-Snowflake, and Ralph Heap, R-Mesa, were recruited by Arizona Freedom Caucus Chair and state Senator Jake Hoffman to run against Republican commissioners Kevin Thompson and Nick Myers. The two commissioners were first elected in 2022 and are eligible to run for a second term next year.
Note: Ralph Heap is the father of Justin Heap (R-MAGA), the current Maricopa County Recorder.
Hoffman recruited Marshall and Heap to run in the R primary because he feels that Thompson and Myers, as bad as they are, aren't Trumpy enough.
He's also recruited Kimberly Yee, the current (and termed out) AZ state treasurer, to mount a primary challenge to Tom Horne, the incumbent AZ Superintendent of Public Instruction.
He has recruited Rep. Alexander Kolodin to challenge incumbent Democrat Adrian Fontes for AZ Secretary of State. Kolodin may face a primary is his quest to the R nominee for SOS.
Hoffman has endorsed Andy Biggs in the R primary for governor (Dear Leader hedged his bets and endorsed the two major candidates in that race which kind of obviates that move by Hoffman), Given Biggs' noted inability to fundraise means that he'll need Hoffman more than the basically self-funding Karrin Taylor Robson will.
In fact, the only race where Hoffman hasn't issued an endorsement (at least, not that I can find) is the race for AZ Attorney General. Fellow state senator Warren Petersen is running in that one. Or maybe I should say "Senate President Warren Petersen."
Hoffman isn't likely to do something to tick him off while both are members of the state legislature.
Note: as of this writing, neither Marshall nor Heap have formed committees for their runs at ACC slots; however, both have filed Statements of Interest with the SOS.
This doesn't apply to Presidential elections, only to U.S. Senate seats from AZ and the Arizona governorship, which are usually the highest level Arizona-based offices on a ballot in AZ.
It's also not a partisan thing as both Ds and Rs fall on both sides of this.
Lastly, when I say "no experience in lower-level offices", I'm not talking about school board or city/town council seats (with one exception) - I didn't look that far into the background of any candidate.
It's not absolutely true - people with experience in lower-level elected offices have lost races for higher office*, and at least one person with no experience in elected office has won a top-of-the ballot race.
* = usually they ran against incumbents or other people with experience in lower-level elected offices.
In the following list, an asterisk (*) next to a candidate's name means that candidate won the race.
"Nada" means that neither office was on the ballot. I believe that the next time that will happen is 2032..
The races (I started in 1994 because I moved here in 1993) -
Twice, Kari Lake has run for office (2024 [Senate] and 2022 [Governor]), and twice she has lost.
She's not running for governor again, but the two main candidates in the R primary for that office in 2026 exhibit some of the same weaknesses as her.
Andy Biggs, former legislator and current Congressman, is disliked by most people who meet him. As is Lake.
Karrin Taylor Robson is a rich/famous person looking to buy an elected office. As was Lake.
Cheeto has famously endorsed both, which may help them in a Republican primary.
However, given his monetization of public service for himself (and his allies) and his cratering of it for everyone else (ya know, the public), that endorsement may not help in a general election (I'm presuming that one of them will win the primary).
In 2022, D Mark Kelly defeated R Blake Masters for US Senate. Masters was widely seen as a carpetbagger serving as a rich guy's tool/proxy and had never been in elected office.
In 2020, D Mark Kelly defeated R Martha McSally for a US Senate seat. While Kelly had no experience in public office and McSally was a member of Congress, he was retired from the military and could pick the brain of his wife, former member of Congress and state legislator, Gabby Giffords. Those things seem to have helped him.
In 2014 and 2018, R Doug Ducey defeated both Ds David Garcia and Fred Duval in their runs for governor. In 2018, Ducey was an incumbent; in 2014,he may not have been an incumbent, but had one term as state treasurer under his belt. While Garcia and Duval had stretches in public life, neither had been in elected office.
In 2012, R Jeff Flake defeated D Richard Carmona for US Senate. Carmona had public service behind him, but Flake was a member of Congress.
In 2010, R Jan Brewer defeated D Terry Goddard for governor. While he had been in elected office before and she was an unelected incumbent as Governor. However, she had been Secretary of State and in the state legislature.
In 2010, R John McCain defeated D Rodney Glassman. While Glassman had previously been part of the Tucson City Council, McCain was an incumbent.
Glassman changed his party registration (many years ago) and, in 2026, will be running for state Attorney General as a Republican.
Glassman may be able to run as a uniter - the one thing that activists in both major parties can agree on is that most of them dislike him.
In 2006, R Jon Kyl defeated D Jim Pederson for US Senate. Kyl was an incumbent; Pederson had never been in office.
In 2006, D Janet Napolitano defeated R Len Munsil. She was an incumbent; he had never been in office.
In 2004, R John McCain defeated D Stuart Starky for US Senate. McCain was an incumbent, and, to the best of my knowledge, Starky has never been in office.
2004 was before I became politically active, so my knowledge is spotty.
In 2002, D Janet Napolitano defeated R Matt Salmon. At that point, he was a member of Congress but she had run statewide and been Attorney General.
In 1998, R John McCain defeated D Ed Ranger for US Senate. McCain was an incumbent, and, to the best of my knowledge, Ranger has never been in office.
In 1998, R Jane Hull defeated D Paul Johnson. While he had been mayor of Phoenix, she was an unelected incumbent who had been Secretary of State and in the state legislature.
In 1994, R Jon Kyl defeated D Sam Coppersmith for US Senate. Kyl was an incumbent; Coppersmith had never been in office (so far as I know).
In 1994, R Fife Symington defeated D Eddie Basha for governor. Symington was an incumbent; Basha was a grocery magnate.
In short, the vast majority of races hold true to the title of this post, with a couple of noted exceptions.
From Arizona Agenda, written by Hank Stephenson and Nicole Ludden
Horne gets flanked
The Freedom Caucus slate is almost complete.
Ever since MAGA candidates swept the polls in November, Republican state Sen. Jake Hoffman has been preparing for 2026 by drafting or latching on to Republican candidates to take back the statewide offices the GOP lost in the 2022 midterm election.
Yesterday, Hoffman introduced his newest Freedom-Caucus-backed candidate: Arizona Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
[snip]
Her angle? Horne is too weak on school vouchers.
On 5/27, she filed a Statement of Interest with the AZSOS.
As of this writing she hasn't formed a new committee/updated an old one for this run.
Yee is looking to unseat Horne in the R primary for Hoffman, who went looking for a viler human being than Horne.
Apparently, he found one in Yee, who has pledged to continue the school voucher grift.
Interestingly, Hoffman, in a tweet on X, referred to the school voucher program as "wildly popular."
From the same article from Arizona Agenda (I'm not on X) -
"Wildly popular"?
Maybe with the people who benefit from the grift.
With the people who pay the freight?
Not so much.
Note: forming a committee and/or filing a Statement of Interest (SOI) with the AZSOS does NOT mean that will appear on a ballot going before voters.
Q: What do former politicos do when they lose a race?
A: Run for office again.
In 2022, legislator John Fillmore (R-Whackjob) lost his primary race for state house. Now he's filed an SOI for a run at Democratic Congressman Greg Stanton. As of this writing, he has not formed a committee with the FEC.
In 2024, soon-to-be ex-legislator Anthony Kern (R-Another Whackjob) came in fifth in a seven-way primary race for Congress (actually, one was a write in candidate, so he was fifth of six ballot candidates). Now he's looking to return to the legislature.
He hasn't formed a new committee with the AZSOS, but he may by using an old committee for this run.
It's not just former politicos, though.
Former placekicker (NFL and Arena Football League) Jay Feely (R-very Wide Right) has declared his candidacy to replace Andy Biggs in Congress.
His SOI, from the AZSOS -
All you need to know about him can be summed up in one pic -
 |
| From Sports Illustrated |
This pic may help him in his primary race, but I don't care.
In honor of Republican candidate for governor Karrin Taylor Robson already running TV spots...well more than a year before her primary.
In 2022, Arizona voters approved Proposition 131, which created a Lieutenant Governor (Lt. Governor) position in Arizona politics.
The language is now part of Article 5, Section 1, Paragraph C of the Arizona State Constitution. The candidates for lt. governor will be named by the candidates for governor before the general election.
It's time for some speculation about who they might name. :)
Note: this is NOT a prediction; my prognostication abilities when it comes to internal R politics are less than optimal
My thinking is that the primary candidate for the will be current state treasurer Kimberly Yee. She's termed out of the treasurer's slot, and while she may run for governor (again!), my guess is that the only way she gets through a primary with Robson and Andy Biggs is if they split the MAGA vote and she gets the rest.
Probably not gonna happen.
I *do* think that she'd help Biggs more in the general - if nothing else, she's seen as less crazy than him.
On the other hand, if/when he feels it necessary to boost his nutjob bonafides, Kari Lake is available.
On the Democratic side, I have no clue (not even for idle speculation). Though, I bet that whoever is interested in the gig is busily jockeying both for position and for Governor Katie Hobbs' attention.
 |
| Pic from https://www.commondreams.org/news/raul-grijalva |
Long-time Arizona Congressman Raul Grijalva passed away this past week after a long battle with cancer.
His family and friends may be focused on their grief and mourning his loss (as they should be), but for the rest of us, the focus is on filling his seat in Congress
From KOLD, written by J.D. Wallace -
Amid mourning, new election set for Grijalva congressional seat
The passing of Rep. Raul Grijalva has many in mourning and paying their respects.
During this difficult time, the process of electing the next member of Congress must continue.
On Friday, Gov. Katie Hobbs announced that a special primary election will be Tuesday, July 15, and a special general election is set for Tuesday, Sept. 23.
One person who announced they will not be in the race is Tucson Mayor Regina Romero. Pima County Supervisor Dr. Matt Heinz has also said he will not run.
[snip]
Romero has already said she will not run while a campaign aide to Secretary of State Adrian Fontes has said he is interested in running. Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, daughter of the late congressman, has yet to announce intentions either way as she mourns his passing.
On Friday on KAET's Horizon, the journalists there speculated that Romero, Heinz, (Adelita) Grijalva, and former state legislator (and aide to Congresswoman Gabby Giffords) Daniel Hernandez will look at the race to replace Congressman Grijalva. Heinz and Romero have already said they won't run this year.
Thus far, eight people have filed statements of interest with the AZ Secretary of State; only one since his passing:
David Bies (D) 12/10/2024
Daniel Butierez (R) 12/17/2024.
Jimmy Rodriguez (R) 1/7/2025
Jorge Rivas (R) 1/30/2025
Andrew Becerra (D) 2/1/2025
Abdul Ghulam Habib (D) 2/12/2025
Raul Verdugo (R) 2/20/2025
Manuel Vega (D) 3/14/2025
Only two people have formed committees with the FEC, Rivas (see above), and Richard Grayson (No Labels) on 3/15/2025.
Both things will probably change this coming week.
My expectations/predictions:
1. It wouldn't be a surprise if Adelita Grijalva (or another Grijalva) is elected to serve out the remainder of Raul Grijalva's term in Congress. This isn't a commentary on the internal politics of the district (it's not my district and I know very little about it), just an observation that Americans have a long history of electing spouses/children to serve out the truncated terms of late members of Congress.
2. No matter what happens this year, there *will* be a Democratic primary battle in 2026. The district is a safe D seat, and those don't become available too often, not in Arizona.
3. 2026 will be an interesting year in AZ politics. and not just in this district. If current AZ SOS Adrian Fontes gets in this race, that move will open up that race, too.
4 Someone from southern AZ politics who hasn't been speculated about will get in the race.
Let the horse race begin.
...On 3/4/2025, 2024 candidate for Congress, filed paperwork with the FEC to run again for AZCD1 in 2026. This isn't new news, as many outlets covered it last week.
On KAET's (Phoenix Channel 8) Horizon journalists' roundtable on Friday, a couple of the panelists speculated that her early entry into the race was due to two factors:
1. To forestall other entries into the race.
2. To help with her fundraising efforts.
I can't speak to her fundraising efforts, but I don't believe that her early entry won't stop anyone from entering the race - the incumbent, David Schweikert (R-Ethically Challenged), is widely seen as vulnerable, and any candidate with an ego will look at the race.
Caveat: this my district, and as in 2024, I won't make a voting decision until I see who actually on the ballot.
...On 2/3/2025, retired Marine JoAnna Mendoza filed paperwork with the FEC to run for AZCD6.
I didn't find any state-level or Maricopa County-level new committees of note.
Or, in some cases, *another* office, as some of these folks are current office holders.
Note: Just because someone has filed a Statement of Interest or form a committee for run for a particular office doesn't mean that person will appear on a ballot for that office. It's early yet and things can, and probably will, change before ballots are set.
Note2: This presumes that there will be elections going forward. With Cheeto and co-president Musk (and their hatred of democracy) running things, that's not a given.
All of the following is based on Statements of Interest (SOI) filed and committees formed.
Warren Petersen (R), the current president of the state senate, is running for Arizona Attorney General. He filed an SOI on 1/26 and amended an old committee for this run on 1/31.
Making official something everyone already knew, former candidate Karrin Taylor Robson (R) is running for governor. She filed an SOI on 2/12 and amended an old committee for this run on 2/12.
Jarrett Maupin (R) is running to unseat Yassamin Ansari (D) is CD3. He filed an SOI on 2/5. He hasn't formed a committee as yet.
No ally of Joe Arpaio should be allowed within even sniffing distance of an elected office.
I looked at Maricopa County statements of interest and newly-formed committees. I didn't find anything there - all of the SOIs were from people looking at the office of Justice of the Peace or Constable. There are a couple of former legislators on that list but they're running for re-election, so I'm going to ignore them. As for the county's committee listings? I didn't find anything there, though the County's search function is problematical and I may have missed something.
However, as I stated at the beginning of this post, it's still early, so I didn't worry about it too much.
Current president of the state senate, Warren Petersen, is "interested" in running for state AG.
From the list of statements of interest filed with the AZ SOS -
At this point. it's only an expression of interest of becoming a candidate for a particular office. A person expressing such an interest may not ever be listed on a ballot for that office. As of this writing, no committee has been formed such a run.
As of now, no other "big names" have publicly expressed an interest in an office (other than the ones I've written about), either at the state or Maricopa County levels. Also, no "big names" have yet formed an election committee, federal or state, for an office other than the one they hold now.
Both will change as the year goes on.
