Maybe the new GOP symbol should be from Medium (note: I don't agree with the author's "both sides" premise. but I like the pic)-
From Arizona Capitol Times, written by Reagan Priest, dated 6/10 -
Freedom Caucus announces primary challengers for
Arizona Corporation Commission
Two Republican state representatives announced their plans to challenge two incumbent Corporation Commissioners in 2026, saying the two commissioners have not done enough to support President Donald Trump’s energy agenda and protect ratepayers.
Reps. David Marshall, R-Snowflake, and Ralph Heap, R-Mesa, were recruited by Arizona Freedom Caucus Chair and state Senator Jake Hoffman to run against Republican commissioners Kevin Thompson and Nick Myers. The two commissioners were first elected in 2022 and are eligible to run for a second term next year.
Note: Ralph Heap is the father of Justin Heap (R-MAGA), the current Maricopa County Recorder.
Hoffman recruited Marshall and Heap to run in the R primary because he feels that Thompson and Myers, as bad as they are, aren't Trumpy enough.
He's also recruited Kimberly Yee, the current (and termed out) AZ state treasurer, to mount a primary challenge to Tom Horne, the incumbent AZ Superintendent of Public Instruction.
He has recruited Rep. Alexander Kolodin to challenge incumbent Democrat Adrian Fontes for AZ Secretary of State. Kolodin may face a primary is his quest to the R nominee for SOS.
Hoffman has endorsed Andy Biggs in the R primary for governor (Dear Leader hedged his bets and endorsed the two major candidates in that race which kind of obviates that move by Hoffman), Given Biggs' noted inability to fundraise means that he'll need Hoffman more than the basically self-funding Karrin Taylor Robson will.
In fact, the only race where Hoffman hasn't issued an endorsement (at least, not that I can find) is the race for AZ Attorney General. Fellow state senator Warren Petersen is running in that one. Or maybe I should say "Senate President Warren Petersen."
Hoffman isn't likely to do something to tick him off while both are members of the state legislature.
Note: as of this writing, neither Marshall nor Heap have formed committees for their runs at ACC slots; however, both have filed Statements of Interest with the SOS.
This doesn't apply to Presidential elections, only to U.S. Senate seats from AZ and the Arizona governorship, which are usually the highest level Arizona-based offices on a ballot in AZ.
It's also not a partisan thing as both Ds and Rs fall on both sides of this.
Lastly, when I say "no experience in lower-level offices", I'm not talking about school board or city/town council seats (with one exception) - I didn't look that far into the background of any candidate.
It's not absolutely true - people with experience in lower-level elected offices have lost races for higher office*, and at least one person with no experience in elected office has won a top-of-the ballot race.
* = usually they ran against incumbents or other people with experience in lower-level elected offices.
In the following list, an asterisk (*) next to a candidate's name means that candidate won the race.
"Nada" means that neither office was on the ballot. I believe that the next time that will happen is 2032..
The races (I started in 1994 because I moved here in 1993) -
Twice, Kari Lake has run for office (2024 [Senate] and 2022 [Governor]), and twice she has lost.
She's not running for governor again, but the two main candidates in the R primary for that office in 2026 exhibit some of the same weaknesses as her.
Andy Biggs, former legislator and current Congressman, is disliked by most people who meet him. As is Lake.
Karrin Taylor Robson is a rich/famous person looking to buy an elected office. As was Lake.
Cheeto has famously endorsed both, which may help them in a Republican primary.
However, given his monetization of public service for himself (and his allies) and his cratering of it for everyone else (ya know, the public), that endorsement may not help in a general election (I'm presuming that one of them will win the primary).
In 2022, D Mark Kelly defeated R Blake Masters for US Senate. Masters was widely seen as a carpetbagger serving as a rich guy's tool/proxy and had never been in elected office.
In 2020, D Mark Kelly defeated R Martha McSally for a US Senate seat. While Kelly had no experience in public office and McSally was a member of Congress, he was retired from the military and could pick the brain of his wife, former member of Congress and state legislator, Gabby Giffords. Those things seem to have helped him.
In 2014 and 2018, R Doug Ducey defeated both Ds David Garcia and Fred Duval in their runs for governor. In 2018, Ducey was an incumbent; in 2014,he may not have been an incumbent, but had one term as state treasurer under his belt. While Garcia and Duval had stretches in public life, neither had been in elected office.
In 2012, R Jeff Flake defeated D Richard Carmona for US Senate. Carmona had public service behind him, but Flake was a member of Congress.
In 2010, R Jan Brewer defeated D Terry Goddard for governor. While he had been in elected office before and she was an unelected incumbent as Governor. However, she had been Secretary of State and in the state legislature.
In 2010, R John McCain defeated D Rodney Glassman. While Glassman had previously been part of the Tucson City Council, McCain was an incumbent.
Glassman changed his party registration (many years ago) and, in 2026, will be running for state Attorney General as a Republican.
Glassman may be able to run as a uniter - the one thing that activists in both major parties can agree on is that most of them dislike him.
In 2006, R Jon Kyl defeated D Jim Pederson for US Senate. Kyl was an incumbent; Pederson had never been in office.
In 2006, D Janet Napolitano defeated R Len Munsil. She was an incumbent; he had never been in office.
In 2004, R John McCain defeated D Stuart Starky for US Senate. McCain was an incumbent, and, to the best of my knowledge, Starky has never been in office.
2004 was before I became politically active, so my knowledge is spotty.
In 2002, D Janet Napolitano defeated R Matt Salmon. At that point, he was a member of Congress but she had run statewide and been Attorney General.
In 1998, R John McCain defeated D Ed Ranger for US Senate. McCain was an incumbent, and, to the best of my knowledge, Ranger has never been in office.
In 1998, R Jane Hull defeated D Paul Johnson. While he had been mayor of Phoenix, she was an unelected incumbent who had been Secretary of State and in the state legislature.
In 1994, R Jon Kyl defeated D Sam Coppersmith for US Senate. Kyl was an incumbent; Coppersmith had never been in office (so far as I know).
In 1994, R Fife Symington defeated D Eddie Basha for governor. Symington was an incumbent; Basha was a grocery magnate.
In short, the vast majority of races hold true to the title of this post, with a couple of noted exceptions.
From Arizona Agenda, written by Hank Stephenson and Nicole Ludden
Horne gets flanked
The Freedom Caucus slate is almost complete.
Ever since MAGA candidates swept the polls in November, Republican state Sen. Jake Hoffman has been preparing for 2026 by drafting or latching on to Republican candidates to take back the statewide offices the GOP lost in the 2022 midterm election.
Yesterday, Hoffman introduced his newest Freedom-Caucus-backed candidate: Arizona Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
[snip]
Her angle? Horne is too weak on school vouchers.
On 5/27, she filed a Statement of Interest with the AZSOS.
As of this writing she hasn't formed a new committee/updated an old one for this run.
Yee is looking to unseat Horne in the R primary for Hoffman, who went looking for a viler human being than Horne.
Apparently, he found one in Yee, who has pledged to continue the school voucher grift.
Interestingly, Hoffman, in a tweet on X, referred to the school voucher program as "wildly popular."
From the same article from Arizona Agenda (I'm not on X) -
"Wildly popular"?
Maybe with the people who benefit from the grift.
With the people who pay the freight?
Not so much.
Note: forming a committee and/or filing a Statement of Interest (SOI) with the AZSOS does NOT mean that will appear on a ballot going before voters.
Q: What do former politicos do when they lose a race?
A: Run for office again.
In 2022, legislator John Fillmore (R-Whackjob) lost his primary race for state house. Now he's filed an SOI for a run at Democratic Congressman Greg Stanton. As of this writing, he has not formed a committee with the FEC.
In 2024, soon-to-be ex-legislator Anthony Kern (R-Another Whackjob) came in fifth in a seven-way primary race for Congress (actually, one was a write in candidate, so he was fifth of six ballot candidates). Now he's looking to return to the legislature.
He hasn't formed a new committee with the AZSOS, but he may by using an old committee for this run.
It's not just former politicos, though.
Former placekicker (NFL and Arena Football League) Jay Feely (R-very Wide Right) has declared his candidacy to replace Andy Biggs in Congress.
His SOI, from the AZSOS -
All you need to know about him can be summed up in one pic -
 |
| From Sports Illustrated |
This pic may help him in his primary race, but I don't care.
In honor of Republican candidate for governor Karrin Taylor Robson already running TV spots...well more than a year before her primary.
In 2022, Arizona voters approved Proposition 131, which created a Lieutenant Governor (Lt. Governor) position in Arizona politics.
The language is now part of Article 5, Section 1, Paragraph C of the Arizona State Constitution. The candidates for lt. governor will be named by the candidates for governor before the general election.
It's time for some speculation about who they might name. :)
Note: this is NOT a prediction; my prognostication abilities when it comes to internal R politics are less than optimal
My thinking is that the primary candidate for the will be current state treasurer Kimberly Yee. She's termed out of the treasurer's slot, and while she may run for governor (again!), my guess is that the only way she gets through a primary with Robson and Andy Biggs is if they split the MAGA vote and she gets the rest.
Probably not gonna happen.
I *do* think that she'd help Biggs more in the general - if nothing else, she's seen as less crazy than him.
On the other hand, if/when he feels it necessary to boost his nutjob bonafides, Kari Lake is available.
On the Democratic side, I have no clue (not even for idle speculation). Though, I bet that whoever is interested in the gig is busily jockeying both for position and for Governor Katie Hobbs' attention.
 |
| Pic from https://www.commondreams.org/news/raul-grijalva |
Long-time Arizona Congressman Raul Grijalva passed away this past week after a long battle with cancer.
His family and friends may be focused on their grief and mourning his loss (as they should be), but for the rest of us, the focus is on filling his seat in Congress
From KOLD, written by J.D. Wallace -
Amid mourning, new election set for Grijalva congressional seat
The passing of Rep. Raul Grijalva has many in mourning and paying their respects.
During this difficult time, the process of electing the next member of Congress must continue.
On Friday, Gov. Katie Hobbs announced that a special primary election will be Tuesday, July 15, and a special general election is set for Tuesday, Sept. 23.
One person who announced they will not be in the race is Tucson Mayor Regina Romero. Pima County Supervisor Dr. Matt Heinz has also said he will not run.
[snip]
Romero has already said she will not run while a campaign aide to Secretary of State Adrian Fontes has said he is interested in running. Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, daughter of the late congressman, has yet to announce intentions either way as she mourns his passing.
On Friday on KAET's Horizon, the journalists there speculated that Romero, Heinz, (Adelita) Grijalva, and former state legislator (and aide to Congresswoman Gabby Giffords) Daniel Hernandez will look at the race to replace Congressman Grijalva. Heinz and Romero have already said they won't run this year.
Thus far, eight people have filed statements of interest with the AZ Secretary of State; only one since his passing:
David Bies (D) 12/10/2024
Daniel Butierez (R) 12/17/2024.
Jimmy Rodriguez (R) 1/7/2025
Jorge Rivas (R) 1/30/2025
Andrew Becerra (D) 2/1/2025
Abdul Ghulam Habib (D) 2/12/2025
Raul Verdugo (R) 2/20/2025
Manuel Vega (D) 3/14/2025
Only two people have formed committees with the FEC, Rivas (see above), and Richard Grayson (No Labels) on 3/15/2025.
Both things will probably change this coming week.
My expectations/predictions:
1. It wouldn't be a surprise if Adelita Grijalva (or another Grijalva) is elected to serve out the remainder of Raul Grijalva's term in Congress. This isn't a commentary on the internal politics of the district (it's not my district and I know very little about it), just an observation that Americans have a long history of electing spouses/children to serve out the truncated terms of late members of Congress.
2. No matter what happens this year, there *will* be a Democratic primary battle in 2026. The district is a safe D seat, and those don't become available too often, not in Arizona.
3. 2026 will be an interesting year in AZ politics. and not just in this district. If current AZ SOS Adrian Fontes gets in this race, that move will open up that race, too.
4 Someone from southern AZ politics who hasn't been speculated about will get in the race.
Let the horse race begin.
...On 3/4/2025, 2024 candidate for Congress, filed paperwork with the FEC to run again for AZCD1 in 2026. This isn't new news, as many outlets covered it last week.
On KAET's (Phoenix Channel 8) Horizon journalists' roundtable on Friday, a couple of the panelists speculated that her early entry into the race was due to two factors:
1. To forestall other entries into the race.
2. To help with her fundraising efforts.
I can't speak to her fundraising efforts, but I don't believe that her early entry won't stop anyone from entering the race - the incumbent, David Schweikert (R-Ethically Challenged), is widely seen as vulnerable, and any candidate with an ego will look at the race.
Caveat: this my district, and as in 2024, I won't make a voting decision until I see who actually on the ballot.
...On 2/3/2025, retired Marine JoAnna Mendoza filed paperwork with the FEC to run for AZCD6.
I didn't find any state-level or Maricopa County-level new committees of note.
Or, in some cases, *another* office, as some of these folks are current office holders.
Note: Just because someone has filed a Statement of Interest or form a committee for run for a particular office doesn't mean that person will appear on a ballot for that office. It's early yet and things can, and probably will, change before ballots are set.
Note2: This presumes that there will be elections going forward. With Cheeto and co-president Musk (and their hatred of democracy) running things, that's not a given.
All of the following is based on Statements of Interest (SOI) filed and committees formed.
Warren Petersen (R), the current president of the state senate, is running for Arizona Attorney General. He filed an SOI on 1/26 and amended an old committee for this run on 1/31.
Making official something everyone already knew, former candidate Karrin Taylor Robson (R) is running for governor. She filed an SOI on 2/12 and amended an old committee for this run on 2/12.
Jarrett Maupin (R) is running to unseat Yassamin Ansari (D) is CD3. He filed an SOI on 2/5. He hasn't formed a committee as yet.
No ally of Joe Arpaio should be allowed within even sniffing distance of an elected office.
I looked at Maricopa County statements of interest and newly-formed committees. I didn't find anything there - all of the SOIs were from people looking at the office of Justice of the Peace or Constable. There are a couple of former legislators on that list but they're running for re-election, so I'm going to ignore them. As for the county's committee listings? I didn't find anything there, though the County's search function is problematical and I may have missed something.
However, as I stated at the beginning of this post, it's still early, so I didn't worry about it too much.
Current president of the state senate, Warren Petersen, is "interested" in running for state AG.
From the list of statements of interest filed with the AZ SOS -
At this point. it's only an expression of interest of becoming a candidate for a particular office. A person expressing such an interest may not ever be listed on a ballot for that office. As of this writing, no committee has been formed such a run.
As of now, no other "big names" have publicly expressed an interest in an office (other than the ones I've written about), either at the state or Maricopa County levels. Also, no "big names" have yet formed an election committee, federal or state, for an office other than the one they hold now.
Both will change as the year goes on.
Note: Someone declaring that they are interested in running for a particular office does NOT mean that person will be a candidate on a ballot. Also, it's early, so people may declare an interest in a particular office now but may ultimately run for another office.
From the statements of interest filed by potential candidates with the Secretary of State's office.
First to file one:
Barby Ingle, Republican, interested in a state representative slot in LD7. Filed on 12/4/2024.
Biggest name (so far):
Rodney Glassman, Republican, interested in running for state Attorney General. Filed on 12/14 and 12/26.
Normally, I am loathe to make any predictions about R primaries, but here, I'll make one. The only way Glassman is the R nominee is if the Rs have given up on winning the AG's race.
Note: Some sitting legislators, all Rs, have declared an interest in running again for a spot in the legislature.
Note: this is based only on signatures submitted and could (and probably will) be changed by legal challenges.
From Maricopa County's list of primary candidates -
Note2: The "Signatures Needed" column info is from Maricopa County here.
All countywide seats have challengers (which is a good thing for democracy) and only one race will be decided in the primary as all candidates for that office are from one party (County Treasurer with only two Republican candidates)
The 2026 election cycle has already started; some potential candidates have already filed statements of interest for offices up for election then. Countywide offices up for election will be this year so the statements of interest for 2026 are only for constable and JP races. So far.
Note3: Just because a candidate expresses "interest" in a particular race doesn't mean that they will be on a ballot.
And the first one out of the gate (the first serious candidate to form a committee) is....Dawn Grove.
She lost the race for the R nomination for AG in 2022. She ended the race with $0 on hand.
She hasn't formed a committee for a run as yet, but Republican Karrin Taylor Robson may be running for governor again in 2026. She was in the legislative chamber when Governor Hobbs gave her State of the State speech at the opening of the 2024 session of the state legislature.
While the panelists on channel 12's Sunday Square Off thought she was just making an appearance at an event where most politicians and wanna-bes show up.
Personally, I think she was reminding folks she has raised money for of her presence.
