Showing posts with label 2026. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2026. Show all posts

Sunday, March 16, 2025

AZ icon Raul Grijalva has passed. Now the horse race begins

Pic from https://www.commondreams.org/news/raul-grijalva













Long-time Arizona Congressman Raul Grijalva passed away this past week after a long battle with cancer.


His family and friends may be focused on their grief and mourning his loss (as they should be), but for the rest of us, the focus is on filling his seat in Congress

From KOLD, written by J.D. Wallace -

Amid mourning, new election set for Grijalva congressional seat

The passing of Rep. Raul Grijalva has many in mourning and paying their respects.

During this difficult time, the process of electing the next member of Congress must continue.

On Friday, Gov. Katie Hobbs announced that a special primary election will be Tuesday, July 15, and a special general election is set for Tuesday, Sept. 23.

One person who announced they will not be in the race is Tucson Mayor Regina Romero. Pima County Supervisor Dr. Matt Heinz has also said he will not run.

[snip]

Romero has already said she will not run while a campaign aide to Secretary of State Adrian Fontes has said he is interested in running. Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, daughter of the late congressman, has yet to announce intentions either way as she mourns his passing.

On Friday on KAET's Horizon, the journalists there speculated that Romero, Heinz, (Adelita) Grijalva, and former state legislator (and aide to Congresswoman Gabby Giffords) Daniel Hernandez will look at the race to replace Congressman Grijalva.  Heinz and Romero have already said they won't run this year.

Thus far, eight people have filed statements of interest with the AZ Secretary of State; only one since his passing:

David Bies (D) 12/10/2024

Daniel Butierez (R) 12/17/2024.

Jimmy Rodriguez (R) 1/7/2025

Jorge Rivas (R) 1/30/2025

Andrew Becerra (D) 2/1/2025

Abdul Ghulam Habib (D) 2/12/2025

Raul Verdugo (R) 2/20/2025

Manuel Vega (D) 3/14/2025

Only two people have formed committees with the FEC, Rivas (see above), and Richard Grayson (No Labels) on 3/15/2025.

Both things will probably change this coming week.


My expectations/predictions:

1. It wouldn't be a surprise if Adelita Grijalva (or another Grijalva) is elected to serve out the remainder of Raul Grijalva's term in Congress.  This isn't a commentary on the internal politics of the district (it's not my district and I know very little about it), just an observation that Americans have a long history of electing spouses/children to serve out the truncated terms of late members of Congress.

2. No matter what happens this year, there *will* be a Democratic primary battle in 2026.  The district is a safe D seat, and those don't become available too often, not in Arizona.

3. 2026 will be an interesting year in AZ politics. and not just in this district.  If current AZ SOS Adrian Fontes gets in this race, that move will open up that race, too.

4 Someone from southern AZ politics who hasn't been speculated about will get in the race.

Let the horse race begin.


Monday, March 10, 2025

Not breaking news: Marlene Galan-Woods is again running for Congress

...On 3/4/2025, 2024 candidate for Congress, filed paperwork with the FEC to run again for AZCD1 in 2026.  This isn't new news, as many outlets covered it last week.










On KAET's (Phoenix Channel 8) Horizon journalists' roundtable on Friday, a couple of the panelists speculated that her early entry into the race was due to two factors:

1. To forestall other entries into the race.

2. To help with her fundraising efforts.

I can't speak to her fundraising efforts, but I don't believe that her early entry won't stop anyone from entering the race - the incumbent, David Schweikert (R-Ethically Challenged), is widely seen as vulnerable, and any candidate with an ego will look at the race.

Caveat: this my district, and as in 2024, I won't make a voting decision until I see who actually on the ballot.


...On 2/3/2025, retired Marine JoAnna Mendoza filed paperwork with the FEC to run for AZCD6.










I didn't find any state-level or Maricopa County-level new committees of note.


Saturday, February 22, 2025

There are some interesting names running for office next year

Or, in some cases, *another* office, as some of these folks are current office holders.

Note: Just because someone has filed a Statement of Interest or form a committee for  run for a particular office doesn't mean that person will appear on a ballot for that office.  It's early yet and things can, and probably will, change before ballots are set.

Note2: This presumes that there will be elections going forward.  With Cheeto and co-president Musk (and their hatred of democracy) running things, that's not a given.


All of the following is based on Statements of Interest (SOI) filed and committees formed.


Warren Petersen (R), the current president of the state senate, is running for Arizona Attorney General.  He filed an SOI on 1/26 and amended an old committee for this run on 1/31.

Making official something everyone already knew, former candidate Karrin Taylor Robson (R) is running for governor.  She filed an SOI on 2/12 and amended an old committee for this run on 2/12.

Jarrett Maupin (R) is running to unseat Yassamin Ansari (D) is CD3.  He filed an SOI on 2/5.  He hasn't formed a committee as yet.

No ally of Joe Arpaio should be allowed within even sniffing distance of an elected office.


I looked at Maricopa County statements of interest and newly-formed committees.  I didn't find anything there - all of the SOIs were from people looking at the office of Justice of the Peace or Constable.  There are a couple of former legislators on that list but they're running for re-election, so I'm going to ignore them.  As for the county's committee listings? I didn't find anything there, though the County's search function is problematical and I may have missed something.

However, as I stated at the beginning of this post, it's still early, so I didn't worry about it too much.


Sunday, January 26, 2025

Another shoe may have dropped for 2026

Current president of the state senate, Warren Petersen, is "interested" in running for state AG.

From the list of statements of interest filed with the AZ SOS -



At this point. it's only an expression of interest of becoming a candidate for a particular office.  A person expressing such an interest may not ever be listed on a ballot for that office.  As of this writing, no committee has been formed such a run.

As of now, no other "big names" have publicly expressed an interest in an office (other than the ones I've written about), either at the state or Maricopa County levels.  Also, no "big names" have yet formed an election committee, federal or state, for an office other than the one they hold now.


Both will change as the year goes on.


Thursday, January 23, 2025

Biggs is in (sort of) in the race for AZ Governor

Pointed at this by a fundraising text from Team Hobbs.

I say Congressman Andy Biggs is only "sort of" in because, at this point, he's only filed a statement of interest (SOI), not formed a committee yet.  However, it's early yet.  One of his presumed opponents in the primary, Karrin Taylor Robson, hasn't done either, though she's already secured Cheeto's endorsement.

From the list of statements of interest filed with the AZ SOS -






My guess: Biggs won't be last "big name" to express an interest in the race for Arizona governor.
Whoever gets through the R primary for the chance to face off against Governor Katie Hobbs will be a supporter of Cheeto.

That person will also make voting for Hobbs easy, because it will be a vote for competence over extremism.

What will be more interesting, in a "get out your popcorn" sort of way, will be the Republican primary contest to replace Biggs in Congress.  

His CD5 district is a safe one for Rs, meaning that the R primary winner will almost certainly win in the general election.










One person, former legislator Travis Grantham, has already filed a statement of interest in the race for CD5.

But he won't be the last to do so.

All of the Rs in that race will have a platform of "I'm Trumpier than thou".

No one, not even Grantham, has yet formed a committee with the FEC as of the writing of this post.


Interesting side note: Grantham filed his SOI 2.5 hours after Biggs did so.  I'm guessing that he got a phone call. 

Sunday, December 29, 2024

I know it's early, but the 2026 election cycle has already started

Note: Someone declaring that they are interested in running for a particular office does NOT mean that person will be a candidate on a ballot.  Also, it's early, so people may declare an interest in a particular office now but may ultimately run for another office.


From the statements of interest filed by potential candidates with the Secretary of State's office.

First to file one: 

Barby Ingle, Republican, interested in a state representative slot in LD7.  Filed on 12/4/2024.



Biggest name (so far):

Rodney Glassman, Republican, interested in running for state Attorney General.  Filed on 12/14 and 12/26.




Normally, I am loathe to make any predictions about R primaries, but here, I'll make one.  The only way Glassman is the R nominee is if the Rs have given up on winning the AG's race.

Note: Some sitting legislators, all Rs, have declared an interest in running again for a spot in the legislature.



Sunday, April 07, 2024

Maricopa County primary candidates for 2024

Note: this is based only on signatures submitted and could (and probably will) be changed by legal challenges.

From Maricopa County's list of primary candidates -














Note2: The "Signatures Needed" column info is from Maricopa County here.

All countywide seats have challengers (which is a good thing for democracy) and only one race will be decided in the primary as all candidates for that office are from one party (County Treasurer with only two Republican candidates)

The 2026 election cycle has already started; some potential candidates have already filed statements of interest for offices up for election then.  Countywide offices up for election will be this year so the statements of interest for 2026 are only for constable and JP races.  So far.

Note3: Just because a candidate expresses "interest" in a particular race doesn't mean that they will be on a ballot.



Sunday, January 14, 2024

The calendar may say 2024, but the 2026 election season has already started

And the first one out of the gate (the first serious candidate to form a committee) is....Dawn Grove.












She lost the race for the R nomination for AG in 2022.  She ended the race with $0 on hand.
















She hasn't formed a committee for a run as yet, but Republican Karrin Taylor Robson may be running for governor again in 2026.  She was in the legislative chamber when Governor Hobbs gave her State of the State speech at the opening of the 2024 session of the state legislature.

While the panelists on channel 12's Sunday Square Off thought she was just making an appearance at an event where most politicians and wanna-bes show up.

Personally, I think she was reminding folks she has raised money for of her presence.