A couple of new names in election races in AZ

One's not a surprise at all and one is a bit of surprise.

First up: the one that isn't a surprise.

From AZPM, written by Christopher Conover -

Adelita Grijalva enters CD 7 race

Adelita Grijalva announced Monday morning that she is entering the race to take her late father's place in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Grijalva has followed in her father's footsteps, serving on the Tucson Unified School District Governing Board and on the Pima County Board of Supervisors.

In a written statement, she said," I've spent my life as an advocate, fighting for the brighter future we all deserve."

As for the one that's a bit of a surprise:

From the statements of interest filed with the AZ Secretary of State -

From KJZZ, written by Camryn Sanchez -

Far-right candidate Rep. Alexander Kolodin joins 2026 Arizona secretary of state race

Far-right state Rep. Alexander Kolodin is challenging Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes in 2026.

The Scottsdale Republican began his campaign on Monday dodging questions about his history of claiming elections aren’t safe.

As of this writing, neither the FEC (in Grijalva's case) nor the AZ Secretary of State (in Kolodin's case) lists a campaign committee for either one one their respective websites.

In Grijalva's case, her entry into the Congressional race was long rumored; as for Kolodin, that was a bit of a surprise - the far right Freedom Caucus, of which Kolodin is a member, absolutely *hates* the current AZSOS, Adrian Fontes. and Kolodin wanted to be the first big name into the race.

My guess: he won't be the last.  The KJZZ story goes on to talk about how Gina Swoboda, the current chair of the AZGOP, is looking at the race, too.

Not breaking news: Marlene Galan-Woods is again running for Congress

...On 3/4/2025, 2024 candidate for Congress, filed paperwork with the FEC to run again for AZCD1 in 2026.  This isn't new news, as many outlets covered it last week.

On KAET's (Phoenix Channel 8) Horizon journalists' roundtable on Friday, a couple of the panelists speculated that her early entry into the race was due to two factors:

1. To forestall other entries into the race.

2. To help with her fundraising efforts.

I can't speak to her fundraising efforts, but I don't believe that her early entry won't stop anyone from entering the race - the incumbent, David Schweikert (R-Ethically Challenged), is widely seen as vulnerable, and any candidate with an ego will look at the race.

Caveat: this my district, and as in 2024, I won't make a voting decision until I see who actually on the ballot.

...On 2/3/2025, retired Marine JoAnna Mendoza filed paperwork with the FEC to run for AZCD6.

I didn't find any state-level or Maricopa County-level new committees of note.

There are some interesting names running for office next year

Or, in some cases, *another* office, as some of these folks are current office holders.

Note: Just because someone has filed a Statement of Interest or form a committee for  run for a particular office doesn't mean that person will appear on a ballot for that office.  It's early yet and things can, and probably will, change before ballots are set.

Note2: This presumes that there will be elections going forward.  With Cheeto and co-president Musk (and their hatred of democracy) running things, that's not a given.

All of the following is based on Statements of Interest (SOI) filed and committees formed.

Warren Petersen (R), the current president of the state senate, is running for Arizona Attorney General.  He filed an SOI on 1/26 and amended an old committee for this run on 1/31.

Making official something everyone already knew, former candidate Karrin Taylor Robson (R) is running for governor.  She filed an SOI on 2/12 and amended an old committee for this run on 2/12.

Jarrett Maupin (R) is running to unseat Yassamin Ansari (D) is CD3.  He filed an SOI on 2/5.  He hasn't formed a committee as yet.

No ally of Joe Arpaio should be allowed within even sniffing distance of an elected office.

I looked at Maricopa County statements of interest and newly-formed committees.  I didn't find anything there - all of the SOIs were from people looking at the office of Justice of the Peace or Constable.  There are a couple of former legislators on that list but they're running for re-election, so I'm going to ignore them.  As for the county's committee listings? I didn't find anything there, though the County's search function is problematical and I may have missed something.

However, as I stated at the beginning of this post, it's still early, so I didn't worry about it too much.

Another shoe may have dropped for 2026

Current president of the state senate, Warren Petersen, is "interested" in running for state AG.

From the list of statements of interest filed with the AZ SOS -

At this point. it's only an expression of interest of becoming a candidate for a particular office.  A person expressing such an interest may not ever be listed on a ballot for that office.  As of this writing, no committee has been formed such a run.

As of now, no other "big names" have publicly expressed an interest in an office (other than the ones I've written about), either at the state or Maricopa County levels.  Also, no "big names" have yet formed an election committee, federal or state, for an office other than the one they hold now.

Both will change as the year goes on.

Biggs is in (sort of) in the race for AZ Governor

Pointed at this by a fundraising text from Team Hobbs.

I say Congressman Andy Biggs is only "sort of" in because, at this point, he's only filed a statement of interest (SOI), not formed a committee yet.  However, it's early yet.  One of his presumed opponents in the primary, Karrin Taylor Robson, hasn't done either, though she's already secured Cheeto's endorsement.

From the list of statements of interest filed with the AZ SOS -

My guess: Biggs won't be last "big name" to express an interest in the race for Arizona governor.

Whoever gets through the R primary for the chance to face off against Governor Katie Hobbs will be a supporter of Cheeto.

That person will also make voting for Hobbs easy, because it will be a vote for competence over extremism.

What will be more interesting, in a "get out your popcorn" sort of way, will be the Republican primary contest to replace Biggs in Congress.  

His CD5 district is a safe one for Rs, meaning that the R primary winner will almost certainly win in the general election.

One person, former legislator Travis Grantham, has already filed a statement of interest in the race for CD5.

But he won't be the last to do so.

All of the Rs in that race will have a platform of "I'm Trumpier than thou".

No one, not even Grantham, has yet formed a committee with the FEC as of the writing of this post.

Interesting side note: Grantham filed his SOI 2.5 hours after Biggs did so.  I'm guessing that he got a phone call. 

Q3 money totals are in...and some (OK, *my*) suspicions are raised about a return of the Green/GOP scam

- First up, the Cash on Hand (COH) totals as of the end of September.  This is NOT a prediction of who will win a given race, but COH numbers may be an accurate predictor of who will spend money for mailers and TV/radio ads as we approach the election.

The following is for federal races and select Maricopa County-level races.  Ballot candidates only; no write-in candidates.

- Now for the suspicious part.

While doing this, I realized that no Libertarian Party candidate was on the ballot for a federal office in AZ or in Maricopa County.  Where they might siphon votes from the Republican candidate in the race

Green Patty candidates?  On the ballot is most federal races where the Democratic candidate will win or has even a snowball's chance in Phoenix...in July..of winning.  Where the Green candidate may siphon votes away from the Democratic candidate in race.

Call me a cynic, but I don't believe in coincidences.

Especially since three of the Greens were write-in candidates in the primary.

Especially since all four Green have failed to file paperwork with the FEC.

If it *is* a scam foisted off on the voters of Arizona by the GOP, it's not a new one.

At least they aren't homeless kids this time.

Maricopa County school board candidates

In addition to the candidates, 27 districts will have bond, override, or "district additional assistance" questions on their ballots. 

35 elections are slated to be canceled, either due to having no candidates or having a quantity of candidates that doesn't exceed the number of offices to be elected.  The full list is here.

Ballot candidates, from the website of the Maricopa County School Superintendent -

"Official" (duly registered) write in candidates:

Q2 Fundraising Figures - Maricopa County

Notes:

This is NOT a comprehensive list.  As this is primary season, it mostly includes candidates in primaries of interest.

Also, candidates who I don't believe have a snowball's chance in hell aren't included here.

Lastly, money is not votes.  A candidate with less cash on hand may defeat a candidate with more COH.

State numbers are taken from the summary pages of candidate filings. Also, I don't know if Q2 Money raised amounts include Q2 Loan totals as none of the listed candidates reported loans in Q2.

Q2 Fundraising Figures - State

Notes:

This is NOT a comprehensive list.  As this is primary season, it mostly includes candidates in primaries of interest.

Also, candidates who I don't believe have a snowball's chance in hell aren't included here.

Lastly, money is not votes.  A candidate with less cash on hand may defeat a candidate with more COH.

State numbers are taken from the summary pages of candidate filings. Also, Q2 Money raised amounts do  include Q2 Loan totals.

Q2 Fundraising Figures - Federal

Notes:

This is NOT a comprehensive list.  As this is primary season, it mostly includes candidates in primaries of interest, though there is an exception to that (Ruben Gallego, I'm looking at you :) ).

Also, candidates who I don't believe have a snowball's chance in hell aren't included here.

Lastly, money is not votes.  A candidate with less cash on hand may defeat a candidate with more COH.

Federal numbers are taken from lines 11e, 13c, and 27 of candidate filings. Also, Q2 Money raised amounts do not include Q2 Loan totals (state-level numbers are different is this regard).

Maricopa County primary candidates for 2024

Note: this is based only on signatures submitted and could (and probably will) be changed by legal challenges.

From Maricopa County's list of primary candidates -

Note2: The "Signatures Needed" column info is from Maricopa County here.

All countywide seats have challengers (which is a good thing for democracy) and only one race will be decided in the primary as all candidates for that office are from one party (County Treasurer with only two Republican candidates)

The 2026 election cycle has already started; some potential candidates have already filed statements of interest for offices up for election then.  Countywide offices up for election will be this year so the statements of interest for 2026 are only for constable and JP races.  So far.

Note3: Just because a candidate expresses "interest" in a particular race doesn't mean that they will be on a ballot.

The calendar may say 2024, but the 2026 election season has already started

And the first one out of the gate (the first serious candidate to form a committee) is....Dawn Grove.

She lost the race for the R nomination for AG in 2022.  She ended the race with $0 on hand.

She hasn't formed a committee for a run as yet, but Republican Karrin Taylor Robson may be running for governor again in 2026.  She was in the legislative chamber when Governor Hobbs gave her State of the State speech at the opening of the 2024 session of the state legislature.

While the panelists on channel 12's Sunday Square Off thought she was just making an appearance at an event where most politicians and wanna-bes show up.

Personally, I think she was reminding folks she has raised money for of her presence.

Federal Committee update - Oops on my part edition

Well, almost..

First, the update -

Initially, I thought this was a misfile on the candidate's part as I thought he's running for a seat in the AZ Senate.  However, I've seen his introduction video and he's actually running for U.S. Senate.

Normally, I wouldn't cover a quixotic candidate (I believe that he's got a snowball's chance in Phoenix...in July...of winning that primary) except for his (apparent) oopsie.

Ummmm...U.S. Senate seats are statewide seats, not districted.

CD8: Toma's in, and in a blast from the past, so is Trent Franks

First up Toma.

From the website of the FEC -

This wasn't a closely-held secret as most observers expected him to get into the race and he filed a statement of interest with the AZSOS.

Now, the only question is when, or even if, Toma resigns as Speaker of the AZ House or his position in the House.

My guess is that nether will happen unless he feels he has a real shot at winning the primary.

Another entrant into the race is something of a surprise - former member of Congress Trent Franks.

From KJZZ, written by Camryn Sanchez, dated 11/1 -

Infamous former lawmaker Trent Franks enters congressional race

Former Congressman Trent Franks resigned from Congress in 2017 amid allegations of sexual harassment. Now, the West Valley Republican is launching a new campaign to win back his old seat.

Franks represented Congressional District 8 from 2003 until 2017, when he abruptly resigned after reports came to light that he offered a female employee $5 million to be a surrogate mother for his children. At the time, Franks acknowledged discussing surrogacy with a second female staffer. 

He resigned in late 2017 amid allegations of inappropriate behavior toward female subordinates.  He was replaced by Lesko 

I'm guessing he wants back in for two main reasons -

1. They've elected a Speaker who may be as socially extreme and radical as he is.

2. He resigned in late 2017, and if he wins next year's election, he'll take office again more than seven years later, in 2025.  In terms of Congressional staffers/interns, that's like four generations.  In other words, there are many female staffers/interns who haven't heard his "surrogacy" patter.

Federal Committees update

From the website of the FEC -

Republican Lake is failed 2022 candidate for Governor who's running for the US Senate seat currently held by former Democrat Kyrsten Sinema.   The FEC filing only makes official something that all observers already knew.  My guess is that the only real difference this will make is that there won't be any more (planted?) stories about how she's "considering" a run.

Republican Winn is a former senior campaign staffer for current State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne.  She's running is CD6, currently held by Republican Juan Ciscomani, setting up a primary.

Republican Jasser is running in CD4 for the seat currently held by Democrat Greg Stanton.  He's best known as a Muslim who hates other Muslims.

Democrat Newman seems to be a quixotic candidate for POTUS.

Another blast form the (recent) past: Kari Lake is running for a U.S. Senate seat

Last month, Axios thought this poorly-kept secret was a big deal; now, it's Politico.

Former newscaster and failed 2022 candidate for AZ Governor (she lost in the general election, even though she is still insisting that she didn't).

From Politico -

Kari Lake to launch Arizona Senate bid next month

Arizona Republican Kari Lake will launch a Senate run as soon as early next month, according to three people familiar with her plans.

Lake, an ardent supporter of former President Donald Trump who refused to concede her narrow loss in Arizona’s governor race last year, has been hinting at a bid for months. She has been active in national politics since her 2022 loss and this week alone she’s headlining events in Iowa and Michigan.

Blast from the (recent) past: Michelle Ugenti-Rita is running for the Maricopa County SD2 seat

Former state legislator and failed 2022 candidate for AZ Secretary of State (she lost in the R primary) Michelle Ugenti-Rita is running for the 2nd district seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors.

From Maricopa County's website -

(Note: I'd link to the committee paperwork, but the County's hyperlink to that isn't working)

SD2 is currently held by R Thomas Galvin.  As of May, he formed a committee to run for re-election.

Water protection for AZ doesn't seem to be his thing.

Caveat:  I live in SD2, but have not decided who to vote for.

Masters rethinking a 2024 run for AZ's US Senate seat

Pointed at this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

By "rethinking" I mean "Peter Thiel's financial largesse has its limits and he has no wish to throw good money after bad...even in his quest to buy a Senate seat."

But that was too long for a headline, so... :)

From Vanity Fair -

Blake Masters Might Be Getting Cold Feet About A Second Run for Senate in Arizona: Report

Blake Masters, the far-right venture capitalist who ran and lost in a 2022 Senate election in Arizona, is having second thoughts about trying and potentially failing for a second time, The Daily Beast reported Sunday.

Toward the end of August, multiple outlets reported that Masters was virtually guaranteed to enter the race. An Arizona-based GOP strategist who’d spoken to Masters told Politico that he was “pretty decisively in.” Now—not so much.

Apparently, Cheeto told Masters that he wasn't going to defeat Cheeto's favored candidate, Kari Lake, but on this, I expect that Thiel has more influence with Masters.

Laura Pastor drops out of CD3 race

From AZ Family -

Phoenix councilwoman Laura Pastor drops out of congressional race

One of the leading Democratic names eyed to replace outgoing U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego has dropped out of the race. Gallego is now vying to replace Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s seat.

On Friday, Phoenix councilwoman Laura Pastor announced that she withdrew her name from a lengthy list of contenders, citing health reasons.

This story demonstrates two things:

1. There's a dire need for editors.  Even the two paragraphs/three sentences that I've quoted are poorly written.

"...[V]ying to replace Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s seat"?  Really??  That made it by someone?

2.  It's early.  People can still drop out of or enter races.

Pastor's withdrawal leaves Yassamin Ansari, another member of the Phoenix City Council, and Raquel Teran, a former member of the Arizona Legislature and a former chair of the Arizona Democratic Party, as the big "names" currently in the race.

Failed election deniers don't go away; they just run for a seat in the AZ lege

Failed candidate for Arizona Secretary of State (AZSOS) Mark Finchem made noises about running for Maricopa County Recorder, which would have necessitated a move, sine he doesn't actually, you know *live* in Maricopa County.

Apparently, that aspiration has gone by the wayside.  He's now formed a committee for a run for a seat in the legislature.

From the AZSOS -

He may not actually live at that address, though.  Also from the AZSOS

From his 2022 financial disclosure -

That address goes to a condo in Phoenix.  He didn't always report that as his address, though.  From a previous disclosure -

Neither address is in the district he's running in. 

From the website of the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission -

Oro Valley isn't in LD1; neither is Phoenix.

My guess is that Finchem is, like a certain other state senator (Republican election denier, of course), and is district shopping here.   His listed campaign address goes to a manufactured/mobile home.

The current state senator from LD1 is Ken Bennett, who has some election-denying cred of his own.