AZ icon Raul Grijalva has passed. Now the horse race begins

Pic from https://www.commondreams.org/news/raul-grijalva

Long-time Arizona Congressman Raul Grijalva passed away this past week after a long battle with cancer.

His family and friends may be focused on their grief and mourning his loss (as they should be), but for the rest of us, the focus is on filling his seat in Congress

From KOLD, written by J.D. Wallace -

Amid mourning, new election set for Grijalva congressional seat

The passing of Rep. Raul Grijalva has many in mourning and paying their respects.

During this difficult time, the process of electing the next member of Congress must continue.

On Friday, Gov. Katie Hobbs announced that a special primary election will be Tuesday, July 15, and a special general election is set for Tuesday, Sept. 23.

One person who announced they will not be in the race is Tucson Mayor Regina Romero. Pima County Supervisor Dr. Matt Heinz has also said he will not run.

[snip]

Romero has already said she will not run while a campaign aide to Secretary of State Adrian Fontes has said he is interested in running. Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, daughter of the late congressman, has yet to announce intentions either way as she mourns his passing.

On Friday on KAET's Horizon, the journalists there speculated that Romero, Heinz, (Adelita) Grijalva, and former state legislator (and aide to Congresswoman Gabby Giffords) Daniel Hernandez will look at the race to replace Congressman Grijalva.  Heinz and Romero have already said they won't run this year.

Thus far, eight people have filed statements of interest with the AZ Secretary of State; only one since his passing:

David Bies (D) 12/10/2024

Daniel Butierez (R) 12/17/2024.

Jimmy Rodriguez (R) 1/7/2025

Jorge Rivas (R) 1/30/2025

Andrew Becerra (D) 2/1/2025

Abdul Ghulam Habib (D) 2/12/2025

Raul Verdugo (R) 2/20/2025

Manuel Vega (D) 3/14/2025

Only two people have formed committees with the FEC, Rivas (see above), and Richard Grayson (No Labels) on 3/15/2025.

Both things will probably change this coming week.

My expectations/predictions:

1. It wouldn't be a surprise if Adelita Grijalva (or another Grijalva) is elected to serve out the remainder of Raul Grijalva's term in Congress.  This isn't a commentary on the internal politics of the district (it's not my district and I know very little about it), just an observation that Americans have a long history of electing spouses/children to serve out the truncated terms of late members of Congress.

2. No matter what happens this year, there *will* be a Democratic primary battle in 2026.  The district is a safe D seat, and those don't become available too often, not in Arizona.

3. 2026 will be an interesting year in AZ politics. and not just in this district.  If current AZ SOS Adrian Fontes gets in this race, that move will open up that race, too.

4 Someone from southern AZ politics who hasn't been speculated about will get in the race.

Let the horse race begin.