News broke today that disbarred former Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas is considering a 2014 run for governor, joining current Governor Jan Brewer in the "whatthehell are the smoking?" club.
Thomas ran amuck as Maricopa County Attorney, misusing his office to attack the county's judiciary, independent media, Latino residents, and any perceived adversaries of him and his staunch ally, Joe Arpaio.
The state bar association finally got fed up with Thomas' antics and brought him to heel, by disbarring him and one of his former assistant county attorneys and suspending another of his assistant CAs.
Since then, he has continued a rhetorical jihad against against the Arizona Bar Association, the county judiciary, and anyone else who declines to smooch his posterior.
Now, he wants voters to ignore his past misuse of office and give him a stint on the 9th Floor so that he can expand his jihad to the whole state.
I think Thomas may be serious.
Seriously deluded.
However, we can now safely predict at least four of the names that will publicly state, or at least hint at, their interest in a 2014 gubernortorial run -
Brewer, if she can get the state supreme court to go along with her scheme to ignore the state constitution (don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen)
Thomas, if his meds don't kick in (or more likely, if he doesn't start taking them)
Joe Arpaio, the perpetually thisclosetoindicted Maricopa County Sheriff and saddle partner of Thomas (he gets coy about a run in April or May of every gubernortorial election year, but never goes through with it - such a run would require him to resign as county sheriff)
and Fife Symington. The Fifester was AZ's governor for much of the 1990s, until his conviction in federal court on fraud charges. The verdict was later overturned on appeal and he was then pardoned by then-President Bill Clinton before he could be retried. However, he resigned from office upon his conviction on felony charges. And even though his political career was thoroughly kaput (the post-conviction UFO sighting didn't help make things better), every four years, he hints at another run.
Those hints are greeted mostly by yawns, choruses of "Fife who?", and choruses of "yes!!" from wiseass bloggers.
Of the four, I'd guess that Thomas is most likely to make a real run; the other three have their own reasons to talk big, but those reasons have nothing to do with actually running in 2014. On the other hand, Thomas has nothing better going on. Hanging around the house, waiting
Still, a potential R primary lineup like that is a dream...for Democrats.
OK - and wiseass bloggers, too. :)
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
Monday, November 12, 2012
Brewer engages in constitutional quackery in an attempt to stave off imminent lame duck status
From the Arizona Republic, written by Yvonne Wingett Sanchez -
I don't normally quote this much from a linked article, but Sanchez cited the exact section of the AZ Constitution that I was going to, and given the number of times that I've criticized the Republic for shoddy work, it's only fair to give credit where it is due.
Governor Brewer and her hired mouthpiece can protest that there is "ambiguity" in the section, but it's pretty clear. What is also pretty clear is that the Governor and her advisors/handlers are also fully aware that she has to do something to remain relevant at the Capitol.
As a lame duck governor, she is rapidly losing influence because she is viewed as not having a significant say in the choice of her successor. As such, various legislators and other "players" will be focused on positioning themselves for a run at the office on the 9th Floor of the Executive Tower, or in crafting an alliance with the person they think stands the best chance of winning.
Oh, and a couple of asides -
1. Brewer is quoted as saying that the AZ Constitution does not bar her from serving 2 1/4 terms. Without getting into the validity of that claim (OK - it's crap), "2 1/4"? Try closer to "2 1/2" terms, and then only if she is able to overturn the will of the voters as expressed when we enacted term limits on Arizona's state-level elected officials.
She ascended to the governor's office on January 21, 2009; that means she was in the office three weeks less than two years before she started the term she was elected into. That's a lot closer to half of an elected term than it is to a quarter. Of course, the difference is really no difference at all - the way that the law is written, even one day sworn into an office starts the term limits clock.
During the Spring 2013 semester her alma mater, Glendale Community College, is offering three sections of POS221, Arizona Constitution. There are in-person and online sections available, but I suggest an in-person class for her (and perhaps, her "legal scholars and other people") -
At an in-person class, she can ask the instructor to clearly explain "...which shall include any part of a term served...".
2. In this specific situation, it's likely that even if she mounts a successful legal challenge to the Arizona Constitution, the voters may just turn her "success" into a resounding failure. None of us - left, right, Democratic, Republican, independent, Libertarian, Green, engaged, apathetic, whatever - none of us approve of politicians who show blatant contempt for our expressed wishes.
Still suffering postelection hangovers and with votes still being tallied, political junkies in Arizona already have turned toward the 2014 gubernatorial race. For the first time in more than a decade, the seat could be wide open.
{snip}
But the woman who currently occupies the governor’s office on the ninth floor of the Executive Tower may complicate the race, at least for the Republican slate. Gov. Jan Brewer, who completed the final year of former Gov. Janet Napolitano’s term and then successfully ran for a four-year term in 2010, continues to talk publicly about running for a third term.
It would require a legal challenge to the state Constitution. Arizona law permits statewide-elected officials to serve only two consecutive terms. Article 5, Section 1 of the Arizona Constitution states, “No member of the executive department after serving the maximum number of terms, which shall include any part of a term served, may serve in the same office until out of office for no less than one full term.”
Brewer has said there is “ambiguity” in the Constitution, saying she does not read it as barring her from serving 2 1/4 terms.
Joe Kanefield, former general counsel to Brewer who is now in private practice, said the legal question centers on the definition of “term.” He has said drafters were referring to a governor who was elected to a term and not to a governor who inherited the office by succession.
“I haven’t ruled it out, and I’ve been encouraged by people — legal scholars and other people — that it’s probably something that I ought to pursue,” Brewer told The Arizona Republic.
I don't normally quote this much from a linked article, but Sanchez cited the exact section of the AZ Constitution that I was going to, and given the number of times that I've criticized the Republic for shoddy work, it's only fair to give credit where it is due.
Governor Brewer and her hired mouthpiece can protest that there is "ambiguity" in the section, but it's pretty clear. What is also pretty clear is that the Governor and her advisors/handlers are also fully aware that she has to do something to remain relevant at the Capitol.
As a lame duck governor, she is rapidly losing influence because she is viewed as not having a significant say in the choice of her successor. As such, various legislators and other "players" will be focused on positioning themselves for a run at the office on the 9th Floor of the Executive Tower, or in crafting an alliance with the person they think stands the best chance of winning.
Oh, and a couple of asides -
1. Brewer is quoted as saying that the AZ Constitution does not bar her from serving 2 1/4 terms. Without getting into the validity of that claim (OK - it's crap), "2 1/4"? Try closer to "2 1/2" terms, and then only if she is able to overturn the will of the voters as expressed when we enacted term limits on Arizona's state-level elected officials.
She ascended to the governor's office on January 21, 2009; that means she was in the office three weeks less than two years before she started the term she was elected into. That's a lot closer to half of an elected term than it is to a quarter. Of course, the difference is really no difference at all - the way that the law is written, even one day sworn into an office starts the term limits clock.
During the Spring 2013 semester her alma mater, Glendale Community College, is offering three sections of POS221, Arizona Constitution. There are in-person and online sections available, but I suggest an in-person class for her (and perhaps, her "legal scholars and other people") -
At an in-person class, she can ask the instructor to clearly explain "...which shall include any part of a term served...".
2. In this specific situation, it's likely that even if she mounts a successful legal challenge to the Arizona Constitution, the voters may just turn her "success" into a resounding failure. None of us - left, right, Democratic, Republican, independent, Libertarian, Green, engaged, apathetic, whatever - none of us approve of politicians who show blatant contempt for our expressed wishes.
You want people to believe that "both sides are equally crazy" OK. Time to put up or shut up...
One of the most annoying themes that I heard throughout the past election cycle is that "both sides are to blame" or "both parties are controlled by their extreme and fringe elements" or something similar.
It's a line that is oft-repeated by Republicans who are trying to portray themselves as "reasonable" and by mainstream media pundits who are trying to portray themselves as "evenhanded".
However often the line is repeated, though, it just isn't true.
Do we (the Democrats) have our nuts? No doubt about it.
So do the Republicans.
However, the big difference between the Democrats and Republicans in this area is that while we marginalize our loons, the Republicans lionize theirs. Have you heard of the Dems running a PETA slate the way the Rs have run, hell, *embraced* tea party slates?
Even with the elections over (OK, the voting is over, but the counting of the votes continues, but you know what I mean :) ), the spewing of the "both sides are equally bad" BS is continuing.
On Sunday morning's edition of "Sunday Square Off" on Phoenix' channel 12 (KPNX-TV), part of the discussion was about the success/non-success of AZRepublic columnist Laurie Roberts' "Dekook the Capitol" campaign this fall.
Shane Wikfors, a Republican blogger and consultant, chimed in (at approximately the 1:14 mark of the "Dekook" segment of the linked video), saying that any "dekook the Capitol" campaign should include Democratic kooks, and left it at that.
Unfortunately, so did John Loredo, a Democratic political consultant and former legislator, and Brahm Resnick, the show's host. For different reasons (one political, one professional), each of them should have called on Wikfors to back up his allegation with specific names.
They didn't do so, so I will:
Mr. Wikfors,
I don't know if you read this blog, but I'm guessing that someone you know does and will bring this to your attention.
Your stated belief is that there are Democratic kooks at the Capitol, and that if there is any movement to oust, or even criticize, Republican kooks, then any Democratic kooks should be treated similarly.
OK, I'll bite - you name three Democratic Capitol kooks from the most recent session of the lege, and I'll name three Republican kooks, and we'll use our respective blogs to shine a light on them.
Now, "kook" doesn't mean "holds political positions that I disagree with". In this context, it means "engages in activities that bring embarrassment upon their colleagues, constituents, and state".
What's that? You're having trouble thinking of three D kooks in the lege? Let me help you by naming my (first) three Republican kooks -
State Sen. Lori Klein - packed heat on the floor of the House at a State of the State address; aimed a "purty l'il" pink pistol at a reporter to show off the "purty l'il" laser sight; and read what is perhaps the most ignorant and bigoted letter in the annals of Arizona politics, on the floor of the Senate.
State Sen. Don Shooter - showed his opinion of his constituents by showing up at a special session of the lege in costume - a sombrero, serape, and a pistol holster with a half-filled bottle of tequila.
State Sen. Scott Bundgaard - assaulted his girlfriend by the side of a Phoenix freeway, and then claimed legislative immunity from arrest for his crime.
I will spot you one "kook" on the D side of the aisle - State Rep. Daniel Patterson, for his own domestic violence issues.
Of course, even with that example, there is a stark difference - where the House Democratic caucus clamored for Patterson's resignation/removal, the Republican president of the Senate declared that Bundgaard was the victim, not his girlfriend.
Now, you come up with two more D kooks (and given the rather broad definition that I've laid out here, you just may be able to do so).
Then I will name three more R kooks, and then you can name three more Ds, and so on, until one of us runs out of kooks to list.
I expect that I'll be able to list true R kooks long after you are left with only those Ds with whom you disagree, but who conduct themselves professionally and bring no ridicule upon their colleagues, constituents, and state.
Please feel free to respond here in a comment, or on your own blog, Sonoran Alliance.
Bonus rant: AZ Republic columnist Laurie Roberts reiterated her contention that the voters of LD26 (west Mesa, north and central Tempe) are to blame fot the election of Andy Biggs over Steve Pierce by the Republicans. The wingnuts in the R senate caucus deposed Pierce because they think he wasn't supportive enough of the wingnuts in their primary and general election races. Biggs is the leader of the wingers. Hence, he is now Senate president.
Roberts' posits that if the voters of LD26 had voted against their best interests and elected Jerry Lewis to represent them in the Senate, Pierce would have held on to the Senate presidency, leading to a more civil, if not more moderate, Arizona State Senate.
There's a couple of problems with that theory:
1. The voters of LD26, or any district for that matter, are responsible for electing the candidate who will best represent *them*, not necessarily the one that Roberts would prefer. If those choices are the same, fine; if not, Roberts opinion is slightly less than relevant. Other than in her own district (LD23, I think). The senators-elect choose the president of the senate. If any voters can be said to be at fault for Biggs' jerkwater coup d'etat, it would be the voters who voted for the senators who voted for Biggs, not the voters who did not vote for a candidate who might have supported Pierce. I don't buy into that thinking, but if one is inclined to blame voters for this, would it be more fair, and intellectually honest, to blame the ones who voted for supporters of Biggs rather than the ones who voted for someone who doesn't support Biggs?
2. The person who may be most directly to blame for the toppling of Pierce is Sen. John McComish. Supposedly he committed to supporting Pierce, then flip-flopped and supported Biggs (in exchange for a leadership position, if rumor/reports are true.)
It's a line that is oft-repeated by Republicans who are trying to portray themselves as "reasonable" and by mainstream media pundits who are trying to portray themselves as "evenhanded".
However often the line is repeated, though, it just isn't true.
Do we (the Democrats) have our nuts? No doubt about it.
So do the Republicans.
However, the big difference between the Democrats and Republicans in this area is that while we marginalize our loons, the Republicans lionize theirs. Have you heard of the Dems running a PETA slate the way the Rs have run, hell, *embraced* tea party slates?
Even with the elections over (OK, the voting is over, but the counting of the votes continues, but you know what I mean :) ), the spewing of the "both sides are equally bad" BS is continuing.
On Sunday morning's edition of "Sunday Square Off" on Phoenix' channel 12 (KPNX-TV), part of the discussion was about the success/non-success of AZRepublic columnist Laurie Roberts' "Dekook the Capitol" campaign this fall.
Shane Wikfors, a Republican blogger and consultant, chimed in (at approximately the 1:14 mark of the "Dekook" segment of the linked video), saying that any "dekook the Capitol" campaign should include Democratic kooks, and left it at that.
Unfortunately, so did John Loredo, a Democratic political consultant and former legislator, and Brahm Resnick, the show's host. For different reasons (one political, one professional), each of them should have called on Wikfors to back up his allegation with specific names.
They didn't do so, so I will:
Mr. Wikfors,
I don't know if you read this blog, but I'm guessing that someone you know does and will bring this to your attention.
Your stated belief is that there are Democratic kooks at the Capitol, and that if there is any movement to oust, or even criticize, Republican kooks, then any Democratic kooks should be treated similarly.
OK, I'll bite - you name three Democratic Capitol kooks from the most recent session of the lege, and I'll name three Republican kooks, and we'll use our respective blogs to shine a light on them.
Now, "kook" doesn't mean "holds political positions that I disagree with". In this context, it means "engages in activities that bring embarrassment upon their colleagues, constituents, and state".
What's that? You're having trouble thinking of three D kooks in the lege? Let me help you by naming my (first) three Republican kooks -
State Sen. Lori Klein - packed heat on the floor of the House at a State of the State address; aimed a "purty l'il" pink pistol at a reporter to show off the "purty l'il" laser sight; and read what is perhaps the most ignorant and bigoted letter in the annals of Arizona politics, on the floor of the Senate.
State Sen. Don Shooter - showed his opinion of his constituents by showing up at a special session of the lege in costume - a sombrero, serape, and a pistol holster with a half-filled bottle of tequila.
State Sen. Scott Bundgaard - assaulted his girlfriend by the side of a Phoenix freeway, and then claimed legislative immunity from arrest for his crime.
I will spot you one "kook" on the D side of the aisle - State Rep. Daniel Patterson, for his own domestic violence issues.
Of course, even with that example, there is a stark difference - where the House Democratic caucus clamored for Patterson's resignation/removal, the Republican president of the Senate declared that Bundgaard was the victim, not his girlfriend.
Now, you come up with two more D kooks (and given the rather broad definition that I've laid out here, you just may be able to do so).
Then I will name three more R kooks, and then you can name three more Ds, and so on, until one of us runs out of kooks to list.
I expect that I'll be able to list true R kooks long after you are left with only those Ds with whom you disagree, but who conduct themselves professionally and bring no ridicule upon their colleagues, constituents, and state.
Please feel free to respond here in a comment, or on your own blog, Sonoran Alliance.
Bonus rant: AZ Republic columnist Laurie Roberts reiterated her contention that the voters of LD26 (west Mesa, north and central Tempe) are to blame fot the election of Andy Biggs over Steve Pierce by the Republicans. The wingnuts in the R senate caucus deposed Pierce because they think he wasn't supportive enough of the wingnuts in their primary and general election races. Biggs is the leader of the wingers. Hence, he is now Senate president.
Roberts' posits that if the voters of LD26 had voted against their best interests and elected Jerry Lewis to represent them in the Senate, Pierce would have held on to the Senate presidency, leading to a more civil, if not more moderate, Arizona State Senate.
There's a couple of problems with that theory:
1. The voters of LD26, or any district for that matter, are responsible for electing the candidate who will best represent *them*, not necessarily the one that Roberts would prefer. If those choices are the same, fine; if not, Roberts opinion is slightly less than relevant. Other than in her own district (LD23, I think). The senators-elect choose the president of the senate. If any voters can be said to be at fault for Biggs' jerkwater coup d'etat, it would be the voters who voted for the senators who voted for Biggs, not the voters who did not vote for a candidate who might have supported Pierce. I don't buy into that thinking, but if one is inclined to blame voters for this, would it be more fair, and intellectually honest, to blame the ones who voted for supporters of Biggs rather than the ones who voted for someone who doesn't support Biggs?
2. The person who may be most directly to blame for the toppling of Pierce is Sen. John McComish. Supposedly he committed to supporting Pierce, then flip-flopped and supported Biggs (in exchange for a leadership position, if rumor/reports are true.)
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Ballot counting updates: Saturday, November 10
I could not find anything that specifically listed the number of ballots counted today, but since some of the races have changed, obviously, they've been doing some counting.
...In the race for US Senate, R Jeff Flake's lead over D Rich Carmona has grown to a little over 76K vote. The tiniest spark of hope that existed that this race would turn around is fading.
...In CD1, D Ann Kirkpatrick's lead over R Jonathan Paton now stands at 6246 votes, which is down 18 votes from yesterday. Still seems like she is going to hang on here.
...In CD2, D Ron Barber's lead over R Martha McSally stands at 289 votes. As with yesterday's report, this one is still far too close to call.
...In CD9, D Kyrsten Sinema's lead over R Vernon Parker stands at 4710 votes, an increase of 642 votes. The trend and the margin still favor Sinema here; it isn't over, but this contest is on the clock.
...In LD28, D Eric Meyer has opened up a 907-vote lead over R Amanda Reeve for the 2nd House seat in the district, an increase of 224 votes. This race isn't over, but the trend favors Meyer.
- All state-level results can be found here.
...In the race for CAWCD (the board of directors of the Central Arizona Project), the race for the fifth and final seat that is up for election has flipped, with Heather Macre opening up a 977 vote lead over Jean McGrath. Yesterday, McGrath was ahead by 94 votes.
...In the race for Maricopa County Sheriff, R Joe Arpaio's lead over D Paul Penzone has closed to a still-daunting 84025. That's a decrease of 1645 votes, but the pace of change isn't nearly fast enough right now to flip the race.
- All Maricopa County-level results can be found here.
If there are any changes tomorrow, I'll update...
...In the race for US Senate, R Jeff Flake's lead over D Rich Carmona has grown to a little over 76K vote. The tiniest spark of hope that existed that this race would turn around is fading.
...In CD1, D Ann Kirkpatrick's lead over R Jonathan Paton now stands at 6246 votes, which is down 18 votes from yesterday. Still seems like she is going to hang on here.
...In CD2, D Ron Barber's lead over R Martha McSally stands at 289 votes. As with yesterday's report, this one is still far too close to call.
...In CD9, D Kyrsten Sinema's lead over R Vernon Parker stands at 4710 votes, an increase of 642 votes. The trend and the margin still favor Sinema here; it isn't over, but this contest is on the clock.
...In LD28, D Eric Meyer has opened up a 907-vote lead over R Amanda Reeve for the 2nd House seat in the district, an increase of 224 votes. This race isn't over, but the trend favors Meyer.
- All state-level results can be found here.
...In the race for CAWCD (the board of directors of the Central Arizona Project), the race for the fifth and final seat that is up for election has flipped, with Heather Macre opening up a 977 vote lead over Jean McGrath. Yesterday, McGrath was ahead by 94 votes.
...In the race for Maricopa County Sheriff, R Joe Arpaio's lead over D Paul Penzone has closed to a still-daunting 84025. That's a decrease of 1645 votes, but the pace of change isn't nearly fast enough right now to flip the race.
- All Maricopa County-level results can be found here.
If there are any changes tomorrow, I'll update...
A few pictures from the 2012 election cycle
 |
| State Sen. David Schapira addressing a crowd of voters in Tempe in January while he was exploring a run for Congress. He finished the primary in 2nd place. |
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| From March: The CD5 delegates to the Democratic National Convention, (L-R) Janie Hydrick, Chase Williams, Laura Copple, Jerry Gettinger, Lauren Kuby, and Randy Keating |
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| Paul Penzone, candidate for Maricopa County Sheriff, speaking at an event in Tempe |
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| At the same April event, the future LD26 legislative team - (L-R, standing) Reps-elect Juan Mendez and Andrew Sherwood and Sen.-elect Ed Ableser |
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| Mark Mitchell in April, the future Mayor of Tempe. He emerged victorious in Tempe's election in May. |
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| Andrei Cherny, candidate for Congress, addressing a meeting of the LD24 Democrats; he finished third in the primary. |
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| In July, putting up signs |
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| In July, an overflow crowd at Changing Hands Bookstore in Tempe for a Congressional primary forum |
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| Congressional candidate Kyrsten Sinema at the July forum. She emerged from the primary as the nominee. |
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| Not political or anything to do with the election cycle; I just like the sign. |
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| In August, Harry Mitchell addressing a crowd at an event in Tempe |
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| September: Future state rep. Juan Mendez speaking at the LD26 campaign office in Tempe |
.jpg) |
| US Senate candidate Rich Carmona speaking to a supporter at the same Tempe event in September |
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| The "crowd" at the Clean Elections debate for LD24 legislative candidates in September |
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| In September, future State Rep. Andrew Sherwood (standing) greeting friends in Tempe in September |
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| Kyrsten Sinema addressing the crowd at the same Tempe event in September |
.jpg) |
| Election Day: watching early national returns at the Arizona Democratic Party headquarters in Phoenix |
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| Election Day: The crowd gathering at the Renaissance watching election night coverage on CNN |
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| Election night: Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton speaking to the hundreds gathered at the Renaissance |
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| The jublilant crowd as the election is called for President Obama |
All of the above pics were taken by me and represent just the tiniest portion of the effort and energy and dedication of the 2012 election cycle. Similar scenes and more took place across the state all year, and while a guy with a camera may not have been at each place, they were all a part of the successes of the cycle.
Friday, November 09, 2012
Random takeaways from the elections
Some things could change a little, depending on final vote counts here and across the country, but here are a few thoughts on the elections, in no particular order -
- Big, anonymous, money, rooted in the infamous Citizens United decision, played a huge part in 2012's elections. It didn't buy the presidential race, but that took hundreds of millions of dollars in small donor contributions and one hell of a ground game to fend off. Down-ballot races and referenda weren't so fortunate - here in AZ, at least two ballot questions, 121 and 204, had a ton of "dark" money expended against them. Perhaps not coincidentally, both were defeated.
- On a related note, Karl Rove and the other Republican/corporate "kingmakers" spent hundreds of millions of dollars on advertising for their candidate and against Barack Obama in swing states, only to see Obama win all but one. Wonder if anyone will do a study on what kind of economic impact that spending may have had? Wouldn't it just be a pisser if turns out all their spending helped the economies in those states enough to actually help the President win? Note: "pisser" is New England-speak for "ironic". Trust me on this. :)
- I hope the Republicans aren't reading this, but they deserve our thanks for the Democrats actually gaining seats in the Senate, when pretty much everybody expected them lose seats. The Republicans keep nominating uncompetitive candidates in competitive races (O'Donnell in DE and Angle in NV in 2010; Mourdock in IN and Akin in MO in 2012).
- There will be a record 20 women in the US Senate starting in January. The floor debates on the Republicans' anti-choice, anti-contraception, and anti-equal pay proposals should be interesting. To say the least.
- While the pundits have been going on (and on, and on) about how this election signals a demographic shift, one that spells long-term trouble for the Republicans and their anti-ethnic and racial minority agenda. However, the re-election of Barack Obama signals that one truism about presidential politics hasn't changed:
The candidate that voters would prefer to sit down and have a beer with (i.e. - the most relatable, or more personable, candidate) tends to have a leg up in the presidential contest.
With Barack Obama, you have a man who could sit down and talk sports over a pitcher of beer, or even talk about how to brew a good beer.
With Mitt Romney, you have a man who could sit down in a luxury sky box and talk about how to buy a sports team or brewery. But not about what goes into the makeup of a good team or beer.
It's been true since Reagan v. Carter in 1980 -
Reagan was more personable than Carter in 1980 and Mondale in 1984.
Bush was more personable than Dukakis in 1988...OK, not really, but Bush won because of people voting for a third Reagan term, and Reagan was more personable than Dukakis.
Clinton was more personable than Bush in 1992 and Dole in 1996.
Baby Bush was more personable than Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004...and cheated better in both years, too.
Obama was more personable than McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012.
Not saying that the "more personable" one in each race was a better human being, just better at connecting with people.
- Speaking of Mitt Romney, in the aftermath of the election, a number of Democrats and supporters were making "nice" talk about Romney, how he is a "good and honorable American", blah, blah, blah. There is even talk of giving/creating a cabinet position for him ("Secretary of Business", anyone? ).
Not buying it.
He has built his life - financially, socially, intellectually, and emotionally - on a dislike and even a contempt for the vast majority of society. He got what was coming to him.
He deserves nothing more than the rest of society returning the dislike and contempt.
- The race for 2016 has already started, as Public Policy Polling has already run a poll in Iowa on potential 2016 Democratic candidates. At this point, such polls are less about preference than name recognition, so it was to be expected to see Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden come out on top of this poll.
- Speaking of Hillary Clinton and 2016, some people (and I don't mean Clinton people) have been talking like she has already wrapped up the nomination and that the primary season will be a mere formality.
There was talk like that in 2007 too.
- Big, anonymous, money, rooted in the infamous Citizens United decision, played a huge part in 2012's elections. It didn't buy the presidential race, but that took hundreds of millions of dollars in small donor contributions and one hell of a ground game to fend off. Down-ballot races and referenda weren't so fortunate - here in AZ, at least two ballot questions, 121 and 204, had a ton of "dark" money expended against them. Perhaps not coincidentally, both were defeated.
- On a related note, Karl Rove and the other Republican/corporate "kingmakers" spent hundreds of millions of dollars on advertising for their candidate and against Barack Obama in swing states, only to see Obama win all but one. Wonder if anyone will do a study on what kind of economic impact that spending may have had? Wouldn't it just be a pisser if turns out all their spending helped the economies in those states enough to actually help the President win? Note: "pisser" is New England-speak for "ironic". Trust me on this. :)
- I hope the Republicans aren't reading this, but they deserve our thanks for the Democrats actually gaining seats in the Senate, when pretty much everybody expected them lose seats. The Republicans keep nominating uncompetitive candidates in competitive races (O'Donnell in DE and Angle in NV in 2010; Mourdock in IN and Akin in MO in 2012).
- There will be a record 20 women in the US Senate starting in January. The floor debates on the Republicans' anti-choice, anti-contraception, and anti-equal pay proposals should be interesting. To say the least.
- While the pundits have been going on (and on, and on) about how this election signals a demographic shift, one that spells long-term trouble for the Republicans and their anti-ethnic and racial minority agenda. However, the re-election of Barack Obama signals that one truism about presidential politics hasn't changed:
The candidate that voters would prefer to sit down and have a beer with (i.e. - the most relatable, or more personable, candidate) tends to have a leg up in the presidential contest.
With Barack Obama, you have a man who could sit down and talk sports over a pitcher of beer, or even talk about how to brew a good beer.
With Mitt Romney, you have a man who could sit down in a luxury sky box and talk about how to buy a sports team or brewery. But not about what goes into the makeup of a good team or beer.
It's been true since Reagan v. Carter in 1980 -
Reagan was more personable than Carter in 1980 and Mondale in 1984.
Bush was more personable than Dukakis in 1988...OK, not really, but Bush won because of people voting for a third Reagan term, and Reagan was more personable than Dukakis.
Clinton was more personable than Bush in 1992 and Dole in 1996.
Baby Bush was more personable than Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004...and cheated better in both years, too.
Obama was more personable than McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012.
Not saying that the "more personable" one in each race was a better human being, just better at connecting with people.
- Speaking of Mitt Romney, in the aftermath of the election, a number of Democrats and supporters were making "nice" talk about Romney, how he is a "good and honorable American", blah, blah, blah. There is even talk of giving/creating a cabinet position for him ("Secretary of Business", anyone? ).
Not buying it.
He has built his life - financially, socially, intellectually, and emotionally - on a dislike and even a contempt for the vast majority of society. He got what was coming to him.
He deserves nothing more than the rest of society returning the dislike and contempt.
- The race for 2016 has already started, as Public Policy Polling has already run a poll in Iowa on potential 2016 Democratic candidates. At this point, such polls are less about preference than name recognition, so it was to be expected to see Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden come out on top of this poll.
- Speaking of Hillary Clinton and 2016, some people (and I don't mean Clinton people) have been talking like she has already wrapped up the nomination and that the primary season will be a mere formality.
There was talk like that in 2007 too.
AZ's uncounted ballots update
There isn't much to update. The AZ SOS' press release on the progress toward counting the remaining provisional and early ballots reflects only the work in Maricopa County, but since Maricopa County has more uncounted ballots than the rest of the state combined, it works.
Yesterday, there were 359K uncounted ballots in Maricopa County - 344K early and 115K provisional.
Those numbers have been reduced to 237,359 and 115K, respectively.
There are a few races where the uncounted ballots could impact the outcomes, once all of the ballots are counted.
Statewide races -
R Jeff Flake still has a sizeable lead over D Rich Carmona in the race for US Senate, but the lead is down to less than 75K votes. Given that most of the provisional ballots seem to be from Latino and Democratic-heavy areas, there is still a spark of hope here.
Congressional races -
In CD2, D Ron Barber is slightly ahead (586 votes) of R Martha McSally. This one is going back and forth and it may be well into next week before the victor is determined.
In CD1, D Ann Kirkpatrick's lead over R Jonathan Paton stands at 6264 votes. She is likely to hold on here.
In CD9, D Kyrsten Sinema has opened up a lead of 4068 votes over R Vernon Parker. I don't think this race is called yet, but the margin and trend both favor Sinema.
State legislative race -
In LD28, D Eric Meyer has a 683-vote lead over R Amanda Reeve for the 2nd House seat in that district. The trend favors Meyer, but this one is a long way from over.
Maricopa County races -
In the Sheriff's race, R Joe Arpaio has an 85670-vote lead over D Paul Penzone. Even if the uncounted ballots skew heavily toward Penzone (which I kind of expect), Arpaio's bacon will almost certainly be saved byspoiler "independent" Mike Stauffer, who received nearly 45K votes.
In the race for CAWCD (Central Arizona Water Conservation District, aka the board of directors of the Central Arizona Project), Heather Macre is 94 votes behind Jean McGrath for fifth place in a race where the top five vote-getters win seats on the board. If Macre pulls ahead in the final count, Arizonans will win twice - Macre is a hard-working subject matter expert who would be a supreme asset on the board; McGrath is most assuredly *not*; her loss would be a case of "addition by subtraction".
In the race for Justice of the Peace in the Arrowhead Justice Precinct, we are still awaiting results, but that isn't due to the uncounted provisional/early ballots issue - that was a race where all of the candidates were write-in candidates, and those take a while to count.
The latest reports have the Maricopa County Recorder's office working through the weekend and the holiday on Monday, so the outcomes of the various close races, especially here in Maricopa County, should be clearer on Tuesday.
Yesterday, there were 359K uncounted ballots in Maricopa County - 344K early and 115K provisional.
Those numbers have been reduced to 237,359 and 115K, respectively.
There are a few races where the uncounted ballots could impact the outcomes, once all of the ballots are counted.
Statewide races -
R Jeff Flake still has a sizeable lead over D Rich Carmona in the race for US Senate, but the lead is down to less than 75K votes. Given that most of the provisional ballots seem to be from Latino and Democratic-heavy areas, there is still a spark of hope here.
Congressional races -
In CD2, D Ron Barber is slightly ahead (586 votes) of R Martha McSally. This one is going back and forth and it may be well into next week before the victor is determined.
In CD1, D Ann Kirkpatrick's lead over R Jonathan Paton stands at 6264 votes. She is likely to hold on here.
In CD9, D Kyrsten Sinema has opened up a lead of 4068 votes over R Vernon Parker. I don't think this race is called yet, but the margin and trend both favor Sinema.
State legislative race -
In LD28, D Eric Meyer has a 683-vote lead over R Amanda Reeve for the 2nd House seat in that district. The trend favors Meyer, but this one is a long way from over.
Maricopa County races -
In the Sheriff's race, R Joe Arpaio has an 85670-vote lead over D Paul Penzone. Even if the uncounted ballots skew heavily toward Penzone (which I kind of expect), Arpaio's bacon will almost certainly be saved by
In the race for CAWCD (Central Arizona Water Conservation District, aka the board of directors of the Central Arizona Project), Heather Macre is 94 votes behind Jean McGrath for fifth place in a race where the top five vote-getters win seats on the board. If Macre pulls ahead in the final count, Arizonans will win twice - Macre is a hard-working subject matter expert who would be a supreme asset on the board; McGrath is most assuredly *not*; her loss would be a case of "addition by subtraction".
In the race for Justice of the Peace in the Arrowhead Justice Precinct, we are still awaiting results, but that isn't due to the uncounted provisional/early ballots issue - that was a race where all of the candidates were write-in candidates, and those take a while to count.
The latest reports have the Maricopa County Recorder's office working through the weekend and the holiday on Monday, so the outcomes of the various close races, especially here in Maricopa County, should be clearer on Tuesday.
Thursday, November 08, 2012
Uncounted ballots and Election 2012: Arizona looking to out-Florida Florida
Arizona is back in the national news, and not in a good way.
Reports of voter suppression in Latino- and Democratic-heavy districts (using any excuse to funnel voters toward provisional ballots, with the resultant standing in longer lines on Election Day and a lower likelihood that the vote will count after Election Day) and an official total of more than 631K uncounted ballots remaining have AZ receiving the sort of media attention normally reserved for Florida and its "hanging chads".
The US Senate and Corporation Commission races look to be over, but they are close enough to switch (currently showing as R victories).
In addition to the statewide races, there are enough outstanding ballots in Maricopa County to affect the sheriff's race here.
The press release from the AZ SOS -
A state canvass to certify official election results for federal, statewide and legislative races is scheduled for Dec. 3.
Voters who cast a “conditional provisional” ballot (individuals had insufficient identification when they went to vote at a polling place) have five business days, or until the end of Wednesday, Nov. 14, to return to their county elections office with proper ID.
***Yesterday we erroneously stated the deadline for voters who cast a provisional conditional ballot to provide ID was Nov. 13. The date is actually November 14, due to Veterans Day.***
Individual county breakouts are attached.
Reports of voter suppression in Latino- and Democratic-heavy districts (using any excuse to funnel voters toward provisional ballots, with the resultant standing in longer lines on Election Day and a lower likelihood that the vote will count after Election Day) and an official total of more than 631K uncounted ballots remaining have AZ receiving the sort of media attention normally reserved for Florida and its "hanging chads".
The US Senate and Corporation Commission races look to be over, but they are close enough to switch (currently showing as R victories).
In addition to the statewide races, there are enough outstanding ballots in Maricopa County to affect the sheriff's race here.
The press release from the AZ SOS -
Ballot Processing – County Update – Thursday, Nov. 8 Edition
PHOENIX - Secretary Bennett has announced that as of Thursday afternoon, there are an estimated 631,274 early and provisional ballots statewide that are yet to be processed and counted.A state canvass to certify official election results for federal, statewide and legislative races is scheduled for Dec. 3.
Voters who cast a “conditional provisional” ballot (individuals had insufficient identification when they went to vote at a polling place) have five business days, or until the end of Wednesday, Nov. 14, to return to their county elections office with proper ID.
***Yesterday we erroneously stated the deadline for voters who cast a provisional conditional ballot to provide ID was Nov. 13. The date is actually November 14, due to Veterans Day.***
Individual county breakouts are attached.
| County | Uncounted early ballots | Provisional ballots yet to be verified |
| Apache | 845 | 1,612 |
| Cochise | 12,504 | 1,828 |
| Coconino | 5,700 | 5,300 |
| Gila | 2,134 | 1,285 |
| Graham | 0 | 462 |
| Greenlee | 0 | 2 |
| La Paz | 395 | 415 |
| Maricopa | 344,000 | 115,000 |
| Mohave | 2,680 | 4,228 |
| Navajo | 3,301 | 2,285 |
| Pima | 54,541 | 26,194 |
| Pinal | 20,000 | 7,437 |
| Santa Cruz | 839 | 909 |
| Yavapai | 4,700 | 3,000 |
| Yuma | 7,439 | 2,239 |
| Ballots to be counted totals | 459,078 | 172,196 |
| GRAND TOTAL | 631,274 | |
2013-2014 Democratic legislative leadership selected
In preparation for the upcoming 51st session of the Arizona State Legislature, the newly-elected and re-elected members of the Democratic caucuses gathered to choose the leaders of their caucuses.
In the Senate, Sen. Leah Landrum Taylor of Phoenix was selected as the Democratic leader and Sen. Linda Lopez of Tucson was selected as the assistant leader. The caucus chose Senator-elect (current state representative) Anna Tovar (Tolleson) as the Senate Democratic whip.
Landrum Taylor was the assistant leader during the 50th session of the lege.
“We are energized and ready to work on the priorities important to Arizonans – encouraging job growth, improving our underfunded schools, helping our veterans and returning the $50 million mortgage settlement to help struggling homeowners,” said Sen. Landrum Taylor. “By listening to the people of Arizona and working collaboratively with the majority we will find solutions that move Arizona forward.”
In the House, Rep. Chad Campbell of Phoenix was reelected as Democratic leader and Rep. Ruben Gallego of Phoenix became assistant leader. The caucus chose Rep. Bruce Wheeler (Tucson) as the House Democratic whip.
“There is a lot of work to be done this session,” Campbell said. “Arizonans can expect House Democrats to continue to push for more jobs, better educational opportunities and increased government accountability.”
In the Senate, Sen. Leah Landrum Taylor of Phoenix was selected as the Democratic leader and Sen. Linda Lopez of Tucson was selected as the assistant leader. The caucus chose Senator-elect (current state representative) Anna Tovar (Tolleson) as the Senate Democratic whip.
Landrum Taylor was the assistant leader during the 50th session of the lege.
“We are energized and ready to work on the priorities important to Arizonans – encouraging job growth, improving our underfunded schools, helping our veterans and returning the $50 million mortgage settlement to help struggling homeowners,” said Sen. Landrum Taylor. “By listening to the people of Arizona and working collaboratively with the majority we will find solutions that move Arizona forward.”
In the House, Rep. Chad Campbell of Phoenix was reelected as Democratic leader and Rep. Ruben Gallego of Phoenix became assistant leader. The caucus chose Rep. Bruce Wheeler (Tucson) as the House Democratic whip.
“There is a lot of work to be done this session,” Campbell said. “Arizonans can expect House Democrats to continue to push for more jobs, better educational opportunities and increased government accountability.”
Wednesday, November 07, 2012
Elections have consequences, part one: Steve Pierce out as senate president
The Arizona Capitol Times is reporting (subscription required) that Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) has defeated Steve Pierce (R-Prescott) for the presidency of the Arizona Senate.
This wasn't a total surprise as GOP's bat-shit crazy wing (which these days is ascendant in their party) signaled its displeasure with Pierce when the Pinal and Maricopa county GOP executive boards passed resolutions urging the ouster of Pierce for not being sufficiently worshipful of said wing of the GOP.
They also urged the ouster of House Speaker Andy Tobin (R-Paulden), but he stood off the challenge.
While this almost certainly means that Senate will remain radical (in spite of the Ds breaking of the R supermajority of the last session), there is a silver lining here for Democrats and Independents: the continued lunacy of the lege should give them a unifying issue in the 2014 elections.
Speculation (on my part, anyway :) ) is that this is just the first salvo in a GOP civil war between disgraced former senate president Russell Pearce and his acolytes on one side and the shrinking not-bat-shit-crazy/Chamber of Commerce wings of the AZGOP on the other.
The AZGOP will hold its biannual reorganization meeting in January (probably in a church); bring your popcorn, and your body armor. It's going to be entertaining, but they will leave blood on the floor.
This wasn't a total surprise as GOP's bat-shit crazy wing (which these days is ascendant in their party) signaled its displeasure with Pierce when the Pinal and Maricopa county GOP executive boards passed resolutions urging the ouster of Pierce for not being sufficiently worshipful of said wing of the GOP.
They also urged the ouster of House Speaker Andy Tobin (R-Paulden), but he stood off the challenge.
While this almost certainly means that Senate will remain radical (in spite of the Ds breaking of the R supermajority of the last session), there is a silver lining here for Democrats and Independents: the continued lunacy of the lege should give them a unifying issue in the 2014 elections.
Speculation (on my part, anyway :) ) is that this is just the first salvo in a GOP civil war between disgraced former senate president Russell Pearce and his acolytes on one side and the shrinking not-bat-shit-crazy/Chamber of Commerce wings of the AZGOP on the other.
The AZGOP will hold its biannual reorganization meeting in January (probably in a church); bring your popcorn, and your body armor. It's going to be entertaining, but they will leave blood on the floor.
Locally, a mixed bag for Democrats and Independents
Note: all Maricopa County results below should be considered in the light of the fact that somewhere near 400K ballots remain to be counted, with approximately half being mail-in ballots that were dropped off at polling places and provisional ballots that were filled out on Tuesday.
And based on reports of voter suppression/general incompetence on the part of Maricopa County Elections (it's one of the two; I'll wait for an honest investigation to determine which it was) in Democratic and/or Latino-heavy precincts, those provisional ballots could affect a few races.
Maricopa County results page here.
AZ SOS results page here.
- Republican Joe Arpaio is 88K votes ahead of Democratic challenger Paul Penzone in his quest for another term in charge of the Maricopa CountySlot Machine Sheriff's Office. It looks over, but the late count could make this one interesting. Arpaio spent roughly 10X more than Penzone on this race.
- Bill Montgomery won election to a "full term" as Maricopa County Attorney, defeating Libertarian challenger Michael Kielsky 74% to 26%. Kielsky may have been completely swamped, but he still outperformed my expectation that he would garner ~25% of the vote.
"Full term" is in quotes because Montgomery looks to be setting up a run at AZ Attorney General in 2014. If he does go for it, he'll have to resign from office due to AZ's "resign to run" law. The incumbent AG, Republican Tom Horne, has issues with campaign finance violations, hiring his girlfriend to a taxpayer-funded job, and leaving the scene of an accident. If he runs for a second term, he'll be vulnerable in both the primary and the general elections.
- Republican Jerry Weiers won a term as mayor of Glendale over Democrat Manny Cruz, leading by 4K votes. While Weiers was and is expected to win, the 4K difference is close enough to make the late count interesting.
- Democrat Terry Goddard, former AZ AG and nominee for Governor, won a seat on the governing board of the Central Arizona Project. Democrat Heather Macre is in sixth in the race to fill five seats, approximately 3700 votes out of 5th place. Besides Goddard, the other apparent winners are Lisa Atkins, Pam Pickard, Guy Carpenter, and Jean McGrath. Atkins, Pickard, and Carpenter are Republicans, but they made various pre-election lists of "less bad" or "Republican but qualified" candidates; McGrath is so tea party that she doesn't *drink* the tea, she mainlines it.
- One piece of good news on the school board front: Mesa wingnut Jerry Walker lost his bid for a seat on the Mesa Unified board. I got to see him in action when he was running wild on the governing board of the Maricopa County Community College District. His loss is a gain for Mesa and its schools, teachers, and students.
- In the US Senate race, Democrat Rich Carmona is behind Republican Jeff Flake by approximately 83K votes. As with the Maricopa County sheriff race above, this one looks over, but the late count could cause some heart palpitations in R land.
- In CD1, Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick is leading Republican Jonathan Paton by 6500 votes. Given that in the days leading up to Election Day, it looked as if Paton was pulling ahead, this will be a bit of an upset if it holds up.
- In CD2, Republican Martha McSally looks to have a major upset in the making over Democratic incumbent Ron Barber, leading by ~1300 votes. Stay tuned on this one.
- In CD9, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is holding a slim 2100 vote lead over Vernon Parker. This one should hold up, but this is another one to keep an eye on as the late count comes in.
- As for the Arizona Corporation Commission, the Republicans will likely completely control it. The Democrats, Marcia Busching, Sandra Kennedy, and Paul Newman, are well behind the Republicans, Susan Bitter Smith, Bob Burns, and Bob Stump, in the race.
- The AZ Senate looks as if it will turn out to have 13 Ds and 17 Rs.
Biggest (and most pleasant) surprise: In LD26 (Central and North Tempe, West Mesa), it looks as if Democrat Ed Ableser will defeat Republican Jerry Lewis. While I supported Ableser, I thought that Lewis would have enough lingering goodwill from his defeat of Russell Pearce in Pearce's 2011 recall election to win in the D-leaning district. This is one time I happy with being wrong.
Best news: Republican bully Frank Antenori is GONE, and it wasn't even that close. Democrat Dave Bradley is leading the LD10 race by more than 5K votes.
Worst news: Democratic state representative Tom Chabin lost his bid for the LD6 state senate seat to Republican state representative Chester Crandell. LD6 is a Republican-heavy district, but it was hoped that Chabin's experience and name recognition would propel him past the finish line first. It didn't.
- The AZ House will probably have 23 or 24 Ds and 37 or 36 Rs.
Right now, the race for one of the LD28 seats is too close to call. Incumbent R Kate Brophy McGee will win one of the seats, while incumbents Eric Meyer (D) and Amanda Reeve (R) are fighting it out for the second seat, with Meyer current leading by 175 votes. This one will take a while to sort out.
A race that could switch is in the Tucson-area LD9, where Democrat Mohur Sarah Sidwa is trailing Republican Ethan Orr by ~2600 votes for the second House seat in the district. Democrat Victoria Steele looks to have won the other seat. Still, in a district race, a 2600-vote margin will be tough to overcome in the late count.
- On the ballot propositions:
In great, but not terribly surprising news, Proposition 120 went down to defeat by more than 2-1 margin. If passed, it would have declared Arizona has supreme jurisdiction over all air, water, and land in the state. Basically, it was a measure to exempt the state from all federal laws and regulations.
While I voted against it, and remain opposed to it, toward the end of the cycle I was kind of hoping it would pass.
Because federal judges, like everyone else, need comic relief occasionally. :)
In good, but with bad overtones, news, Proposition 121 (the "jungle", or "top two" primary question) failed by a similar margin of more than 2-1. This is good, because it was a short-sighted and poorly-written measure, but there was a lot of "dark" money spent by the Republicans who opposed the measure. If this is seen more as a victory for big money than for a defeat for bad policy, it will be back.
In just plain bad news, Proposition 204 was soundly defeated, not by the margin of the above questions, but still by a lot. 204 would have extended the 1% increase in the state sales taxes that was passed a couple of years ago and dedicated the money to funding education in Arizona.
- In Pinal County, embattled Republican Sheriff Paul Babeu easily won re-election. Earlier this year, a scandal where Babeu was alleged to have threatened to use his influence to have an ex-boyfriend deported broke and forced him from a race for Congress. He chose to run for re-election for sheriff instead. He emerged from a crowded Republican primary field and won the general election by 16K votes, or 20 percentage points.
- In Navajo County, Sylvia "6000 Years" Allen, a soon-to-be former state senator, looks to be cruising to victory in the race for the District 3 seat on the Navajo County Board of Supervisors.
And based on reports of voter suppression/general incompetence on the part of Maricopa County Elections (it's one of the two; I'll wait for an honest investigation to determine which it was) in Democratic and/or Latino-heavy precincts, those provisional ballots could affect a few races.
Maricopa County results page here.
AZ SOS results page here.
- Republican Joe Arpaio is 88K votes ahead of Democratic challenger Paul Penzone in his quest for another term in charge of the Maricopa County
- Bill Montgomery won election to a "full term" as Maricopa County Attorney, defeating Libertarian challenger Michael Kielsky 74% to 26%. Kielsky may have been completely swamped, but he still outperformed my expectation that he would garner ~25% of the vote.
"Full term" is in quotes because Montgomery looks to be setting up a run at AZ Attorney General in 2014. If he does go for it, he'll have to resign from office due to AZ's "resign to run" law. The incumbent AG, Republican Tom Horne, has issues with campaign finance violations, hiring his girlfriend to a taxpayer-funded job, and leaving the scene of an accident. If he runs for a second term, he'll be vulnerable in both the primary and the general elections.
- Republican Jerry Weiers won a term as mayor of Glendale over Democrat Manny Cruz, leading by 4K votes. While Weiers was and is expected to win, the 4K difference is close enough to make the late count interesting.
- Democrat Terry Goddard, former AZ AG and nominee for Governor, won a seat on the governing board of the Central Arizona Project. Democrat Heather Macre is in sixth in the race to fill five seats, approximately 3700 votes out of 5th place. Besides Goddard, the other apparent winners are Lisa Atkins, Pam Pickard, Guy Carpenter, and Jean McGrath. Atkins, Pickard, and Carpenter are Republicans, but they made various pre-election lists of "less bad" or "Republican but qualified" candidates; McGrath is so tea party that she doesn't *drink* the tea, she mainlines it.
- One piece of good news on the school board front: Mesa wingnut Jerry Walker lost his bid for a seat on the Mesa Unified board. I got to see him in action when he was running wild on the governing board of the Maricopa County Community College District. His loss is a gain for Mesa and its schools, teachers, and students.
- In the US Senate race, Democrat Rich Carmona is behind Republican Jeff Flake by approximately 83K votes. As with the Maricopa County sheriff race above, this one looks over, but the late count could cause some heart palpitations in R land.
- In CD1, Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick is leading Republican Jonathan Paton by 6500 votes. Given that in the days leading up to Election Day, it looked as if Paton was pulling ahead, this will be a bit of an upset if it holds up.
- In CD2, Republican Martha McSally looks to have a major upset in the making over Democratic incumbent Ron Barber, leading by ~1300 votes. Stay tuned on this one.
- In CD9, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is holding a slim 2100 vote lead over Vernon Parker. This one should hold up, but this is another one to keep an eye on as the late count comes in.
- As for the Arizona Corporation Commission, the Republicans will likely completely control it. The Democrats, Marcia Busching, Sandra Kennedy, and Paul Newman, are well behind the Republicans, Susan Bitter Smith, Bob Burns, and Bob Stump, in the race.
- The AZ Senate looks as if it will turn out to have 13 Ds and 17 Rs.
Biggest (and most pleasant) surprise: In LD26 (Central and North Tempe, West Mesa), it looks as if Democrat Ed Ableser will defeat Republican Jerry Lewis. While I supported Ableser, I thought that Lewis would have enough lingering goodwill from his defeat of Russell Pearce in Pearce's 2011 recall election to win in the D-leaning district. This is one time I happy with being wrong.
Best news: Republican bully Frank Antenori is GONE, and it wasn't even that close. Democrat Dave Bradley is leading the LD10 race by more than 5K votes.
Worst news: Democratic state representative Tom Chabin lost his bid for the LD6 state senate seat to Republican state representative Chester Crandell. LD6 is a Republican-heavy district, but it was hoped that Chabin's experience and name recognition would propel him past the finish line first. It didn't.
- The AZ House will probably have 23 or 24 Ds and 37 or 36 Rs.
Right now, the race for one of the LD28 seats is too close to call. Incumbent R Kate Brophy McGee will win one of the seats, while incumbents Eric Meyer (D) and Amanda Reeve (R) are fighting it out for the second seat, with Meyer current leading by 175 votes. This one will take a while to sort out.
A race that could switch is in the Tucson-area LD9, where Democrat Mohur Sarah Sidwa is trailing Republican Ethan Orr by ~2600 votes for the second House seat in the district. Democrat Victoria Steele looks to have won the other seat. Still, in a district race, a 2600-vote margin will be tough to overcome in the late count.
- On the ballot propositions:
In great, but not terribly surprising news, Proposition 120 went down to defeat by more than 2-1 margin. If passed, it would have declared Arizona has supreme jurisdiction over all air, water, and land in the state. Basically, it was a measure to exempt the state from all federal laws and regulations.
While I voted against it, and remain opposed to it, toward the end of the cycle I was kind of hoping it would pass.
Because federal judges, like everyone else, need comic relief occasionally. :)
In good, but with bad overtones, news, Proposition 121 (the "jungle", or "top two" primary question) failed by a similar margin of more than 2-1. This is good, because it was a short-sighted and poorly-written measure, but there was a lot of "dark" money spent by the Republicans who opposed the measure. If this is seen more as a victory for big money than for a defeat for bad policy, it will be back.
In just plain bad news, Proposition 204 was soundly defeated, not by the margin of the above questions, but still by a lot. 204 would have extended the 1% increase in the state sales taxes that was passed a couple of years ago and dedicated the money to funding education in Arizona.
- In Pinal County, embattled Republican Sheriff Paul Babeu easily won re-election. Earlier this year, a scandal where Babeu was alleged to have threatened to use his influence to have an ex-boyfriend deported broke and forced him from a race for Congress. He chose to run for re-election for sheriff instead. He emerged from a crowded Republican primary field and won the general election by 16K votes, or 20 percentage points.
- In Navajo County, Sylvia "6000 Years" Allen, a soon-to-be former state senator, looks to be cruising to victory in the race for the District 3 seat on the Navajo County Board of Supervisors.
Nationally, a good night for Democrats
It wasn't a clean sweep nationally, but the Democrats did about as well as could be hoped for during Election 2012. Along with Barack Obama's re-election, the Democrats actually *gained* seats in the US Senate (something that no one expected). Some non-AZ results that may be of general interest (all vote totals are unofficial and subject to change as provisional and absentee ballots are counted; generally, the sources for those numbers are the secretaries of state in the respective states):
A - The Libertarian in the Indiana Senate race received 98K votes, while Donnelly looks like he will win by ~20K. Cue up video of Republican heads exploding.
B - I can't find the numbers right now, but every source that I *can* find has Brown as the victor.
C - Again, I can't find specific numbers right now, but all sources indicate a solid win for Murphy.
E - No numbers yet, but a victory for Warren, ousting Brown after he spent two years filling the Senate seat once held by Ted Kennedy.
F - This one is included here because Cruz is a wingnut. However, his victory is not a surprise.
G - Paul Ryan's Congressional re-election race. Not a surprise (he outspent his challenger by a margin of 9 or 10 to 1), but I was hopeful.
H - Progressive icon Dave Obey used to hold this seat, and I (and many others) hoped that the Ds would retake this seat. They didn't.
J - Wingnut Republican Allen West is behind in his re-election race, but it's *Florida*. Final results may not be in for a while. After the lawyers get involved.
K - Wingnut Republican Michelle Bachmann is ahead in her re-election race. :((
| Senate | Candidate | Candidate | ||
| Indiana-A | Donnelly D - 819450 | Mourdock R- 797811 | ||
| Wisconsin | Baldwin D - 1299246 | Thompson R -1197062 | ||
| Ohio | Brown D - B | Mandel R | ||
| Pennsylvania | Casey D - 2900728 | Smith R - 2417779 | ||
| Virginia | Kaine D - 1874745 | Allen R - 1705164 | ||
| Connecticut | Murphy D - C | McMahon R | ||
| Mass. | Warren D - E | Brown R | ||
| Missouri | McCaskill D | - 1484683 | Akin R - 1063698 | |
| Texas - F | Sadler D - 2017224 | Cruz R - 2949053 | ||
| Congress | ||||
| WI 7 - H | Kreitlow D - 155068 | Duffy R - 200033 | ||
| WI 1 - G | Derban D - 157721 | Ryan R - 199715 | ||
| FL 18 - J | Murphy D - 160328 | West R - 157872 | ||
| MN 6 - K | Graves D - 175924 | Bachmann R - 180131 |
A - The Libertarian in the Indiana Senate race received 98K votes, while Donnelly looks like he will win by ~20K. Cue up video of Republican heads exploding.
B - I can't find the numbers right now, but every source that I *can* find has Brown as the victor.
C - Again, I can't find specific numbers right now, but all sources indicate a solid win for Murphy.
E - No numbers yet, but a victory for Warren, ousting Brown after he spent two years filling the Senate seat once held by Ted Kennedy.
F - This one is included here because Cruz is a wingnut. However, his victory is not a surprise.
G - Paul Ryan's Congressional re-election race. Not a surprise (he outspent his challenger by a margin of 9 or 10 to 1), but I was hopeful.
H - Progressive icon Dave Obey used to hold this seat, and I (and many others) hoped that the Ds would retake this seat. They didn't.
J - Wingnut Republican Allen West is behind in his re-election race, but it's *Florida*. Final results may not be in for a while. After the lawyers get involved.
K - Wingnut Republican Michelle Bachmann is ahead in her re-election race. :((
Tuesday, November 06, 2012
Live blogging the results
...Apologies to readers. Due to a technical issue, I was unable to access the internet while at the Democratic Party gathering in downtown Phoenix. Will post pics in a later post...
6:27 - Reports still rolling of VERY long lines in Tempe, Mesa, and South Phoenix in heavily D or Latino areas. The problem seems to be the provisional ballot scam/shortage that many polling places are experiencing here in Maricopa County. Also, there is a report of an Assistant US Attorney/DOJ contingent flying to Yuma to look into issues there.
6:19 - Updating the most watched contest of the night: Ball State is leading Toledo in the first quarter of their game, 7 - 0.
6:15 - GA called for Romney. Again, no surprises yet. Florida looks like it will be interesting. "Interesting" is a euphemism for "f*cked up".
6:02 - CNN calls CT, DE, MA, DC, IL, MD, ME (3 of 4 electoral votes; 1 is still too close to call) and RI for Obama; OK for Romney. Also call FL-Sen for incumbent Bill Nelson (D) over Connie Mack (IV or V, can't remember right now).
5:41 - CNN calls SC for Romney; Obama ahead by 63K votes in FL.
5:32 - CNN shows Donnelly leading Mourdock (the "rape babies are God's gift" guy) by 2%/~6500 votes.
5:25 - More reports of elevated totals of provisional ballots, especially in Latino-heavy areas.
5:24 - CNN calls IN for Romney. Not a surprise - a very red state.
5:12 p.m. - They aren't calling FL yet (not by a long shot), but early results (4% of precincts reporting) show Obama up 55% - 45%. For IN-Sen, the current results show Mourdock (R) ahead of Donnelly (D) by 1000 votes...
5:00 p.m. - First results from VA (via CNN) - CNN calls VT for Obama and KY for Romney.
4:48 p.m. - No results yet, but...
While there haven't been reports yet of any significant voter suppression activities in Maricopa County (stressing the "yet"), there have been reports of general incompetence/poor preparation on the part of poll workers manning some polling places, particularly in South Phoenix and SW Maricopa County.
Apparently, in the event of the slightest bit of confusion, poll workers in those areas default to "oh, just fill out a provisional ballot".
Even if those are counted, it takes much longer to count those than normal day-of and early ballots.
6:27 - Reports still rolling of VERY long lines in Tempe, Mesa, and South Phoenix in heavily D or Latino areas. The problem seems to be the provisional ballot scam/shortage that many polling places are experiencing here in Maricopa County. Also, there is a report of an Assistant US Attorney/DOJ contingent flying to Yuma to look into issues there.
6:19 - Updating the most watched contest of the night: Ball State is leading Toledo in the first quarter of their game, 7 - 0.
6:15 - GA called for Romney. Again, no surprises yet. Florida looks like it will be interesting. "Interesting" is a euphemism for "f*cked up".
6:02 - CNN calls CT, DE, MA, DC, IL, MD, ME (3 of 4 electoral votes; 1 is still too close to call) and RI for Obama; OK for Romney. Also call FL-Sen for incumbent Bill Nelson (D) over Connie Mack (IV or V, can't remember right now).
5:41 - CNN calls SC for Romney; Obama ahead by 63K votes in FL.
5:32 - CNN shows Donnelly leading Mourdock (the "rape babies are God's gift" guy) by 2%/~6500 votes.
5:25 - More reports of elevated totals of provisional ballots, especially in Latino-heavy areas.
5:24 - CNN calls IN for Romney. Not a surprise - a very red state.
5:12 p.m. - They aren't calling FL yet (not by a long shot), but early results (4% of precincts reporting) show Obama up 55% - 45%. For IN-Sen, the current results show Mourdock (R) ahead of Donnelly (D) by 1000 votes...
5:00 p.m. - First results from VA (via CNN) - CNN calls VT for Obama and KY for Romney.
4:48 p.m. - No results yet, but...
While there haven't been reports yet of any significant voter suppression activities in Maricopa County (stressing the "yet"), there have been reports of general incompetence/poor preparation on the part of poll workers manning some polling places, particularly in South Phoenix and SW Maricopa County.
Apparently, in the event of the slightest bit of confusion, poll workers in those areas default to "oh, just fill out a provisional ballot".
Even if those are counted, it takes much longer to count those than normal day-of and early ballots.
Live blogging Election Night
Tonight, I'll be live blogging from the Arizona Democratic Party HQ and the gathering in downtown Phoenix as election returns come in from across the country. Here are a few of the races that I'll be watching until Arizona results start coming in; if there are any races that people think should be added to the list, leave a note in a comment -
| Senate | Candidate | Candidate | ||
| Indiana | Donnelly D | Mourdock R | ||
| Wisconsin | Baldwin D | Thompson R | ||
| Ohio | Brown D | Mandel R | ||
| Pennsylvania | Casey D | Smith R | ||
| Virginia | Kaine D | Allen R | ||
| Connecticut | Murphy D | McMahon R | ||
| Mass. | Warren D | Brown R | ||
| Missouri | McCaskill D | Akin R | ||
| Texas | Sadler D | Cruz R | ||
| Congress | ||||
| WI 7 | Kreitlow D | Duffy R | ||
| WI 2 | Derban D | Ryan R | ||
| FL 18 | Murphy D | West R | ||
| MN 6 | Graves D | Bachmann R |
Monday, November 05, 2012
Voting "against" a candidate: a guide
OK, the last post was all about the reasons to vote "for" particular candidates. Anybody who has read this blog before this knows that I'm better at snark than anything else (and with Tedski suspending/retiring his blog, I may be the snarkiest writer in the AZ blogosphere), and I couldn't let this, the last full day of the election season, pass without a little snark.
Here's a little -
- Mitt Romney for President - Where to start? The entirely wrong attitude toward being president (rule vs. server)? The open contempt for a huge chunk of the country? The never-ending changes in the positions that he espouses?
To be fair to Romney, I don't this that he has changed his positions so much as changed what he tells his audience of the day, hour, or minute.
Unfortunately for Romney, most voters want candidates and electeds with spines. Changes to positions are acceptable when the changes are to honestly-held positions and are based on facts. Such changes are a sign of an intellectually mature person.
There is no evidence that Romney is such a person.
- Jeff Flake for U.S. Senate - He has turned not doing his job of representing Arizona into a proudly-held "principled position". He opposes pretty much every policy that is supportive of society and favors every policy that enhances corporate profits, even if that policy harms Arizonans.
Plus, a political campaign is nothing more than an extended job interview, with us as the prospective employer.
Should we hire someone who is brazen enough to lie and cheat during the interview process, and expect him to turn around and turn into an honorable man after getting the job, one with an almost ironclad six year contract?
- Vernon Parker for Congress (CD9) - Tea Party. 'Nuff said...
- Augustine Bartning (Senate) and Brian Kaufman (House) from LD24 - Not much snark here. I met them at the LD24 Clean Elections debate in September, and they seemed to be decent enough sorts for Republicans, if more than a little naive. Kaufman stated that one of the reasons that people should vote for him is so that the people of LD24 will have a voice in the crafting of the state's budget (presuming that the Rs retain control of the AZ House, which seems to be a safe presumption).
Problem: If he were to somehow win a seat, he'd be a *freshman* representative. Simply put, the R leadership in the lege wouldn't let him in the same room as the budget, much less give him a seat at the table. Being an R means that he would get to see the budget a few hours before the Democrats in the legislature, but that's it.
- Joltin' Joe Arpaio for yet another term as Maricopa County Sheriff - Even if you can ignore the two decades of scandals and abuse of the authority of his office, and the rampant bigotry, and the misuse of public funds, and the raging media whore-ism, and the sacrifice of sex crimes victims on the altar of his jihad against the county's judiciary and against anybody with skin that's darker than a golfer's tan, nobody can ignore the body count.
The deaths of dozens of people in his jails, people who were in custody, unarmed, and in some cases, ill, is completely unacceptable in a civil society.
We will find out tomorrow if Maricopa County is part of "civil society".
- Bob Stump, Susan Bitter Smith and Bob Burns for the Arizona Corporation Commission - They are ALEC/corporate shills one and all who consider public service (and the public itself?) contemptible but are quite comfortable with shamelessly doing the bidding of their corporate and industry masters. They claim to have a "plan" for producing sustainable energy in Arizona, which seems to most consist of superimposing pics of themselves over some solar panels, and for pushing for a trash-burning power plant (one that happens to be fronted by the brother of one of their former legislative colleagues, Bob Blendu).
As for solar, their plan seems to primarily consist of them blowing sunshine up the asses of the voters. Until the polls close on Tuesday night.
Here's a little -
- Mitt Romney for President - Where to start? The entirely wrong attitude toward being president (rule vs. server)? The open contempt for a huge chunk of the country? The never-ending changes in the positions that he espouses?
To be fair to Romney, I don't this that he has changed his positions so much as changed what he tells his audience of the day, hour, or minute.
Unfortunately for Romney, most voters want candidates and electeds with spines. Changes to positions are acceptable when the changes are to honestly-held positions and are based on facts. Such changes are a sign of an intellectually mature person.
There is no evidence that Romney is such a person.
- Jeff Flake for U.S. Senate - He has turned not doing his job of representing Arizona into a proudly-held "principled position". He opposes pretty much every policy that is supportive of society and favors every policy that enhances corporate profits, even if that policy harms Arizonans.
Plus, a political campaign is nothing more than an extended job interview, with us as the prospective employer.
Should we hire someone who is brazen enough to lie and cheat during the interview process, and expect him to turn around and turn into an honorable man after getting the job, one with an almost ironclad six year contract?
- Vernon Parker for Congress (CD9) - Tea Party. 'Nuff said...
- Augustine Bartning (Senate) and Brian Kaufman (House) from LD24 - Not much snark here. I met them at the LD24 Clean Elections debate in September, and they seemed to be decent enough sorts for Republicans, if more than a little naive. Kaufman stated that one of the reasons that people should vote for him is so that the people of LD24 will have a voice in the crafting of the state's budget (presuming that the Rs retain control of the AZ House, which seems to be a safe presumption).
Problem: If he were to somehow win a seat, he'd be a *freshman* representative. Simply put, the R leadership in the lege wouldn't let him in the same room as the budget, much less give him a seat at the table. Being an R means that he would get to see the budget a few hours before the Democrats in the legislature, but that's it.
- Joltin' Joe Arpaio for yet another term as Maricopa County Sheriff - Even if you can ignore the two decades of scandals and abuse of the authority of his office, and the rampant bigotry, and the misuse of public funds, and the raging media whore-ism, and the sacrifice of sex crimes victims on the altar of his jihad against the county's judiciary and against anybody with skin that's darker than a golfer's tan, nobody can ignore the body count.
The deaths of dozens of people in his jails, people who were in custody, unarmed, and in some cases, ill, is completely unacceptable in a civil society.
We will find out tomorrow if Maricopa County is part of "civil society".
- Bob Stump, Susan Bitter Smith and Bob Burns for the Arizona Corporation Commission - They are ALEC/corporate shills one and all who consider public service (and the public itself?) contemptible but are quite comfortable with shamelessly doing the bidding of their corporate and industry masters. They claim to have a "plan" for producing sustainable energy in Arizona, which seems to most consist of superimposing pics of themselves over some solar panels, and for pushing for a trash-burning power plant (one that happens to be fronted by the brother of one of their former legislative colleagues, Bob Blendu).
As for solar, their plan seems to primarily consist of them blowing sunshine up the asses of the voters. Until the polls close on Tuesday night.
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