Short attention span musing: AZ political news and notes

...Just a few things...


...The AZ House and Senate have each passed slightly different versions of a state budget.  It's now in conference committee where Rs from the House and Rs from the Senate will hash out their differences.  There are Ds assigned to the committee, but don't expect them to be allowed to have much say.  At this point, it's just about determining how ugly the budget will be - will it be "Tobin Ugly" or will it be "Biggs Ugly".

My money is on "Biggs Ugly"; as bad as Tobin is, no member of the current lege does "ugly" as enthusiastically as Biggs (though a few do try).

...In a (somewhat) budget-related development, the House slowed down final consideration of Senate bills.  The original plan had been to keep working on the measures while the budget negotiations take place, but it was pointed out that if that happened while the Senate sat on the remaining House bills, the House would lose all leverage with the Senate.

After that "observation", the House "caucused" the remaining Senate bills that they have, but haven't moved them to final consideration since.

Now the Senate has 16 House bills on its COW calendar on Monday (COW1, COW2) and 29 House bills on its Rules Committee agenda for Monday (1 p.m., Caucus Room 1), setting them up for floor consideration.

According to sources, the member of the House who made that observation?  Ethan Orr.

The southern AZ Republican may lose his bid for reelection (in his D-leaning district, he likes to portray himself as a moderate, but his brand of "moderation" reeks more of "triangulation" than anything more significant), but in terms of intra-organization politics, the tactic is spot-on.

...Sources predict the lege will adjourn sine die within the next couple of weeks.  My sources are Democrats, so their information may not be the most current, but that prediction fits with the usual practice of early adjournments in even-numbered years so members can go out and campaign.

...In addition to the legislative membership changes (both pending and already occurred) due to term limits and runs for Congress, a ripple effect will be seen as members choose to seek the offices of people who are seeking Congressional seats.

Latest example:  Senate Democratic leader Anna Tovar has filed for an exploratory committee to run for the seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors vacated by Mary Rose Wilcox, who is running for the Congressional seat held by the retiring Ed Pastor.

Assuming that there are no further developments, that means that she will not be returning to the Senate.  As of this writing, no other D has filed to run for the LD19 Senate seat that she currently holds.  However, four Ds are running for the two House seats from that district, so don't be shocked if one of them switches over.

Also filing for a run at the MCBOS, so far anyway:

Marie Lopez Rogers, mayor of Avondale

Congressman Ed Pastor retiring from Congress

...Thank you for your service and let the scrum begin...

From the Washington Post -

Rep. Ed Pastor (D-Ariz.) announced Thursday that he will be retiring after his current term, setting off what could be a widespread battle to replace him.

The 11-term lawmaker made the announcement via Facebook: "After 23 years in Congress serving the people of Arizona, I have decided that I will not seek re-election this year. It has been a great honor and experience, but it is time for me to close this chapter of my life and start a new one," he said. "I want to thank everyone who has assisted me and supported me throughout my career. Thank you very much for all of your support."

First, let me be one of the many who thank Congressman Pastor for his decades of service to the people of his district, to Phoenix, and Arizona.  His quietly effective style of getting things done will be missed, and will leave some big shoes to fill, for whoever ends up with the job.

Second, the popcorn part of the post.

The district (CD7) is overwhelmingly Democratic.  There are nearly 104K registered Ds in the district, compared to ~38K Rs.  There are approximately 95K Independents or other party registered voters in the district that encompasses south Phoenix, Guadalupe, and southwestern Maricopa County.

That means that a seat that is considered a safe one for Ds is opening up, a rare occurrence here in Arizona.

In 2012, a competitive seat garnered a three-way D primary (eventually won by Kyrsten Sinema) that was rougher than any D primary in recent memory here.

In 2014, the CD7 primary should make that one look like an energetic game of pattycake.

Already announced:

State Rep. Ruben Gallego


State Sen. Steve Gallardo




Mary Rose Wilcox, Maricopa County Board of Supervisors



Others are considering a run, or are being suggested, or are out already (sources are direct or are credible journalists):

Jarret Maupin, considering


Endorsed by Tom Horne (in that district, Horne's endorsement is probably the kiss of death for any candidate).



Greg Stanton, mayor of Phoenix, out



David Schapira, former state legislator and 2012 candidate for Congress, out
State Sen. Robert Meza, out
Israel Torres, former state Registrar of Contractors and 2006 candidate for AZ Secretary of State




State Rep. Chad Campbell, House Democratic leader, considering


Michael Nowakowski, Phoenix City Council member, considering a run at Congress, or the MCBOS vacancy


EJ Montini, columnist for the Arizona Republic, out (never in or considering, but some people wanted him out of Arizona in DC) :)


State Sen. Leah Landrum Taylor, out

Of course, she got the (sort of) endorsement of R political consultant Constantin Querard, which would be nearly as lethal to a candidacy as Horne's (above).



Ken Cheuvront, former state legislator, out

Phil Gordon, former mayor of Phoenix, considering


Republican Sal DiCiccio, Phoenix City Council member, out, announced in his ever-classy way


State Rep. Catherine Miranda, considering



Others who may run, or at least look at running:

State Sen. Anna Tovar, Senate Democratic leader
Laura Pastor, Phoenix City Council member and the daughter of the Congressman


...OK, there are probably more folks to list, but you get the idea - pretty near every D in the state who has ever had aspirations to a seat in Congress is at least thinking about this one.


From the standpoint of the people who will be involved in the various campaigns, it's going to be a long and hot summer.

From the standpoint of the people who write about this stuff, it's going to be seriously fun.