Tuesday, February 22, 2022

Arizona Poll Day: Governor's race

Pointed to this by fivethirtyeight.com.

From Data Orbital -

Breaking: Kari Lake besting other Republican challengers in race against Democrat Katie Hobbs

Data Orbital is pleased to announce the results of its latest statewide, live-caller survey of likely general election voters. The survey was conducted from February 11th to February 13th. 

With little data publicly available, the survey focused on the upcoming, hotly contested race for Governor in Arizona. The survey tested all four Republican candidates against likely Democrat nominee Katie Hobbs.

[snip]










From Data Orbital's toplines document -























This is interesting, but that's all.


There are two problems with the poll:


1. They ignored the candidates' respective primaries.  While Hobbs and Lake are the favorites in their primaries, there's no guarantee that they'll win.  Some primary polling would be nice.

2. They oversampled Republican voters and to a lesser extent, Democratic ones, too, and undersampled Independent/Unaffiliated ones.






From the most recent AZ voter registration report -







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