Matt Salmon announces his retirement from Congress: Let the political battle royal begin

On Thursday, Congressman Matt Salmon announced that he will not be seeking reelection to Congress in 2016.

This wasn't a sudden move - senior Salmon staffers have been looking for, and finding, soft landing spots for  weeks now, and his announcement was followed quickly by an endorsement of Andy Biggs, president of the Arizona State Senate, to be his replacement.

While the Biggs endorsement was (presumably) an attempt to preempt a primary battle for the safe R seat, there are a number of Rs looking at the race, or at least being speculated about for the race.

From AZCentral.com, written by Rebekah L. Sanders -

The open seat left by retiring U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon, R-Ariz., is going to be tempting bait to a school of East Valley Republicans.

When a safely Republican district without an incumbent  came open in Arizona in 2010, that race attracted 10 GOP candidates.

{snip}

The first name on most insiders' lips for Salmon's seat is his former rival, Kirk Adams, who now serves as Gov. Doug Ducey's right-hand man. Adams lost to Salmon in the 5th District primary in 2012 and formerly was leader of the Arizona House.

{snip}


Republicans who say they'll have to think about entering the race include:

• State Rep. Justin Olson, R-Mesa, who said he could scrap a bid for state House Speaker.
• State Rep. Kelly Townsend, R-Mesa: "I am seriously considering it. ... I'm going to really have to pray."
• Maricopa County Supervisor Steve Chucri: "Have I been getting calls? Yes. ... I'll have to look at it and talk to my family."
• Aviation businessman and former congressional candidate Travis Grantham: "I'm eyeing that very closely. And also the state House."
• Former GoDaddy executive Christine Jones, who ran for governor in 2014: Salmon's retirement "was the talk of the town (at Scottsdale Mayor Jim Lane's state of the city luncheon) today. ... I hadn't had this on my radar at all."
• Mesa Councilman Alex Finter: "My phone's been ringing off the hook. At this point I'm not ruling anything out."

A number of others could run, but they didn't respond to calls from The Arizona Republic. They include:

• Former Mesa Mayor Scott Smith, a 2014 gubernatorial candidate
• Maricopa County Supervisor Denny Barney
• Outgoing Gilbert Mayor John Lewis 
• State Sen. Bob Worsley, R-Mesa
• Former Senate President Russell Pearce

Other names being bandied about (some from Sanders' Twitter feed, some from other Twitter feeds, some from people I've spoken to), and my quick takes on them:

Chandler Mayor Jay Tibshraeny - very conservative, but suffers from occasional bouts of sanity, which will disqualify him in any R primary

Former member of Congress Ben Quayle - Hey, he bought his way past low expectations in 2010, it could work again

Perennial candidate Vernon Parker - like Christine Jones, above, he hasn't won anything yet, but he has enough connections, money, and ambition that his name will always be bandied about

Businessman Stephen Viramontes - because in the R worldview, "has money" = "qualified for public office"

Former candidate for governor Gary Tupper (2006) - every large field of candidates needs at least one "Who's that?" candidate

Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema - nominally a Democrat but widely viewed as an aspiring R.  And has been known to at least consider district shopping

Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio - because, you know, he throws his name into the discussion for every race



Note: as of this writing, the FEC's website doesn't show CD5 filings by any of the people listed above.

Note2: Travis Grantham, mentioned in the article above, has opened an exploratory committee for a run for the AZ House from LD12 (committee ID - 201600462).  With Biggs running for Congress, LD12 House member Warren Petersen will be running for Biggs' Senate seat, opening up a House slot.

Committees and candidates update

While there may be (OK, probably "will be" :) ) some last minute entries, we are now in late February.  Most of Arizona's races are defined.

The most contentious race on the Democratic side of the ballot is shaping up to be the race for the three legislative seats in LD26 (most of Tempe and the much of west Mesa).

Current legislators Andrew Sherwood and Juan Mendez are both going for the state senate slot from the district.  Sherwood was appointed to the slot to fill the vacancy in the Senate left by the resignation of Ed Ableser; Mendez is currently a member of the House.

On the House side of the ballot there, there are six declared candidates (and a few rumored ones, too) for the two seats -

Isela Blanc, who I don't know much about, but looks to be part of the Tempe Community Council

Michael Martinez, president of the Maricopa County Young Democrats

Steve Muratore, blogger (withdrawn)

Cameron Oberlin, who I don't know much about

Celeste Plumlee, current state representative (appointed to fill the vacancy created when Sherwood moved to Senate)

Athena Salman, with First Things First, and a community activist in Tempe

David Lucier, a prominent community advocate for Tempe and for veterans


On the Republican side, and I freely concede that my insight into R internal politics can be a little murky, but it looks like that the legislative races in LD5 (most of western Arizona north of Yuma) may be the most contentious.

The last elected state senator there, Kelli Ward, resigned to spend her time mounting a primary challenge to John McCain, who is up for reelection to the US Senate in 2016.  Susan Donahue was appointed in her place, but she has already stated that she will not seek election to a full term in the Senate.

Running for the R nomination for LD5 Senate:

Sonny Borrelli, a colorful current state representative

Ron Gould, a colorful former state senator


Running for the R nomination for LD5 House:

Regina Cobb, current state representative

Sam Medrano, former member of the city council in Bullhead City

Paul Mosley, a financial advisor in Lake Havasu City



...In Maricopa County, the R nomination for county sheriff will either be the most boring race in the state (if Joe Arpaio is on the ballot) or the wildest race in the state (if Arpaio doesn't, or can't, run).  There are currently four Republicans with open committees for the job, and more may yet enter (depending on what Arpaio does).

Candidates with open committees for the R nomination:

Roger Baldwin

Mike Bodak

Marsha Hill

Dan Saban


...Still at the Maricopa County level, the most "interesting" candidate is one who is running for a seat on the governing board of the Maricopa County Community College District.

That's a relatively low profile race at a relatively low profile level (except for the race for sheriff, which will garner national attention, regardless of who's running).

The candidate in question in one Jonathan Gelbart.

To the best of my knowledge, he's not a "bay at the moon" Republican (who tend to get most of the attention in Arizona politics).

Nope, the "interesting" part of his candidacy is listed right on his campaign paperwork -

He's not just a "manager" for BASIS, one of the largest charter school operators in the country, he's the manager of new school development for them.

Insert your own fox/hen house cliche here...


...In Scottsdale, Bob Littlefield, a former member of the Scottsdale City Council, has formed a committee to challenge incumbent mayor Jim Lane.

Littlefield is a staunch Republican, as is Lane.

While Littlefield and I (and for that matter, Lane and I) will disagree on pretty much every issue that Republicans and Democrats will disagree on, Littlefield genuinely cares for Scottsdale.

I can't honestly say that about Lane.


...At the federal level -

- Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu has finally filed his paperwork to be a candidate for Congress.  Three months late and listing the wrong district.  But that paperwork has been filed, and corrected, so he is a candidate in CD1.


- A putatively Independent candidate has filed to run against Raul Grijalva for the seat that Grijalva holds, and that candidate has what may be the best committee name of this, or any other cycle -

"Eat Bacon For Congress".


- Perennial candidate Wendy Rogers (LD17 State Senate in 2010, CD9 in 2012 and 2014) has filed to run for the R nomination in CD1.


- Levi Tappan of Page has formed a committee for a run for the D nomination in CD1 in 2016.  Which is interesting, because when he won a seat on the Page City Council in 2013, he was a Libertarian. 

That's an interesting two-step, and an unusual one. Transitions from Green to Democrat, Democrat to Republican, or Republican to Libertarian (or vice-versa in each case) are rare, but not unheard of.  Skipping a step, like going from Green to R, is something that I've never heard of.

"Libertarian to Democrat" is something else that is so rare as to be unheard of. 


- Ross Groen, formerly the campaign manager for Mark Brnovich's campaign for Arizona Attorney General and a former Congressional aide to Trent Franks, has filed for the R nomination in CD9.


After this, unless the situation merits (i.e. - one or more "big names" get into a race, or a campaign gets crazy, like with a candidate mooning an audience [and in the "Year of Trump", that's not out of the realm of possibility]), this will be the last committees update post until ballots are set.

Short attention span musing

...The race isn't over yet, not by a long shot, but Hillary Clinton went a long way toward securing the 2016 Democratic nomination for the presidency, and toward securing a general election victory, when she faced down the bullies masquerading as Republican members of Congress this past week.

And I am hardly the only person who thinks that.

For what it's worth, I am a supporter Bernie Sanders and believe that Clinton is *far* too close to Wall Street and other 1%'ers (and their lackeys).

I think Sanders is far more concerned with working to enhance the lives of average Americans than any other candidate, D or R.

Supporting him is an easy choice.

Having said that, she did incredibly well, staying cool, calm, and collected in the face of a marathon session thinly-veiled partisan bloviating dressed up as questioning.

Her biggest gain from the session won't be in attracting hardcore supporters of Sanders and the other Democratic candidates, it will be in attracting the support of voters who are late arrivals to the primary season.  The image of Clinton facing Trey Gowdy and his merry bunch of cutthroats and not even batting an eyelash will be the main image in their minds when those voters figure out who they think is the best candidate.


...The Republican field of candidates in CD1 is growing, as Paul Babeu, Pinal County Sheriff, and David Gowan, speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives, have announced their candidacies (Ken Bennett, former AZSOS, and Gary Kiehne, a businessman, are already in the R field).

Babeu seems to be appealing to the pro-LGBT nativist portion of the GOP electorate.  Lending new meaning to the term "microtargeting"...

On the other hand, Gowan has become renowned for his "tin ear", politically speaking.

In other words, my prediction is that these two will be fighting it out for third and fourth place.  Unless someone else gets into the race (which may yet happen - perennial R candidate Wendy Rogers has been establishing ties to CD1).

Then they'll be duking it out over fourth and fifth place...


...News broke Saturday that a deal has been reached in the ongoing lawsuit over the state's consistent, and unconstitutional, underfunding of the state's education system.  Details are sketchy at this point (OK, they're nonexistent at this point), but it looks likely that there will be a special session of the legislature during the first two weeks of November (after that, the calendar will turn to the holiday season, a period during which no non-Maricopa legislator wants to be in Phoenix)..

That issue will be worthy of a separate post (or posts) in coming days; today, however, it highlights the failure of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors to do its job.

In LD26 (Tempe and west Mesa), there is a senate seat that was vacated at the end of September when Ed Ableser resigned to accept a job in Nevada.

Shortly after that, the Democratic PCs of LD26 sent the names of three nominees to fill the seat to the MCBOS.

Word then was that the supes were going to make the appointment at their meeting on October 21st.

They didn't.

This isn't the first time that they've played partisan games with the district - in 2012, there was a vacancy in the old LD17 House contingent (most of the old LD17 became most of the new LD26 after redistricting).  At first, the supes refused to make an appointment, and then they tried to give it to someone who had just won election to the House to start his term limits clock early.  Observers quickly figured out what the supes were intending to do, and that nominee withdrew his name for consideration for the appointment.  Ultimately, nothing happened.

At the time, while there was some grumbling over the supes' high-handed tactics, in general people didn't sweat it that much - the appointment would have mostly been pro-forma as the lege was not in session and there was not any expectation of a special session.

Now, however, things are different.

Now, a special session of the lege is imminent, one regarding what is perhaps the issue that is most significant to average Arizonans - their children's education.

Now, as this looms, one of the areas of Maricopa County is significantly underrepresented.

Well, one thing is the same - the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors is shirking its duty.

The three nominees (L--R) State Rep. Andrew Sherwood, LD26 Chair Sam Pstross, State Rep. Juan Mendez

At this point, the supes don't have any regular meetings scheduled to take place before the likely dates of a special legislative session

Old politicos don't retire, they just run for a different office: Candidates update

Normally, most of this would going into a pure "Committees Update" post, but many of these people have made public announcements but don't have updated committee paperwork on the relevant election authority website as yet...

...In Maricopa county, former Buckeye police chief Dan Saban announced his candidacy for sheriff, challenging incumbent Joe Arpaio.  Saban has challenged Arpaio before, running as a Republican in 2004, a Democrat in 2008, and as a Republican (again!) this time around.

He actually has updated paperwork on the Maricopa County Recorder's website.

Arizona Republic columnist Laurie Roberts has some observations on Saban's renewed candidacy here.  Summary: she's not holding her breath waiting for a Saban primary victory.

Neither am I.


...In Congressional news, former state legislator Matt Heinz has joined current state legislator Victoria Steele in the race for the Democratic nomination in CD2.  Both are looking to challenge incumbent Republican Martha McSally.

With two candidates now in the CD2 Democratic primary, it's now official: there are two more candidates in a race for an occupied seat than there are in CD1, an open seat.  Incumbent Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick has already announced that she is running for US Senate in 2016.  As of this writing, while there have been rumors that Navajo County Sheriff KC Clark will run for the nomination, no Democrat has jumped into the CD1 race.

Steele, Heinz, and Kirkpatrick have already filed paperwork for their respective races, but no Democrat has filed in CD1.


...In statewide news, former state legislator "Atomic" Al Melvin is running for one of the Republican nominations for the Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC).

He is famous for his scheme to turn Arizona into the country's nuclear waste dump and using the revenue to pay for Arizona's public education system.

If he wins a seat on the ACC, look for "glowing media reports about Arizona" to become "media reports about Arizona glowing"...


...In ballot question news, a new group, "We The People For The Unborn", has formed a committee for an as-yet undefined ballot question, but considering the hubbub generated by the recent attacks on Planned Parenthood by anti-choicers, don't be surprised if any question proposed by the new committee will be in that vein.

Short Attention Span Musing

Edited on 7/27 to correct an error

...Apparently, the leash from the Center for Arizona Theocracy Policy (CATP) stretches all the way from CATP's HQ to the 9th floor (governor's office)...

Last week, a video emerged purporting to show a senior official from Planned Parenthood offering for sale tissue from fetuses that have been aborted (not going to link to it; it's easy to find if you really want to see it).

It was quickly shown to be heavily selectively edited and egregiously taken out of context (the actual conversation was about using legitimately donated tissue for legitimate medical research), but that hasn't stopped hordes of anti-choicers from citing the video when they demonize Planned Parenthood.

Which is something that they do the same way that normal people breathe.

Anyway, Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona, has jumped on the anti-PP bandwagon with a statement.  From that statement -

Governor Doug Ducey today directed the Arizona Department of Health Services to conduct a thorough review of current law and immediately promulgate emergency rules designed to prohibit the illegal sale of any tissue from an unborn child.

Since Ducey has officially deemed it OK to change public policy based on open lies, maybe it's time to play with the truth a little and see how much he likes it.

Found this picture on Yahoo.com -

Ducey, left, and Cathi Herrod, President of CATP

Now, someone with Photoshop skills could do a better job with this than me, but this may be good enough to make my point -

The crudely-drawn black line going from Herrod's right hand to Ducey's neck represents a leash attached to a collar.

Now, to be clear, while it seems clear that Herrod and her group exert undue influence at the Capitol (9th Floor and elsewhere), to the best of my knowledge, a physical leash is not involved (meaning that the above pic is meant to be taken as a physical representation of a metaphor, not as documentation of an actual leash).

Having said that, I have to ask -

Would he like it if the above picture (or one done more skillfully) were circulated during his next election campaign?

While it is not accurate in a literal sense (like the anti-PP video), it is accurate in a metaphorical sense (unlike the anti-PP video)...


...Am I the only person who thinks that Donald Trump, Republican presidential candidate (and God's gift to comedians and wiseasses everywhere), instead of being the "nightmare" for the GOP that many in the GOP seem to believe, is actually their wettest dream -

- he actually has Democrats defending Sen. John McCain (R-Never Met A War He Didn't Monger) and his military service.

- he is providing cover for the other R candidates, all of whom have gone right on with saying things that should disqualify them from ever holding *any* elected office, much less the presidency.  However, the national media is focused on Trump and his never-ending case of verbal diarrhea.


...News broke this week that Rodney Glassman, the 2010 Democratic nominee for US Senate in AZ, has changed his voter registration from Democrat to Republican.

Most people that I talked to about this A) hadn't heard the news prior to reading about it in the Yellow Sheet Report and B) weren't surprised - he was never much of a Democrat, and unless the AZGOP changes its name to the "Arizona Glassman Party", he's probably not going to be much of a Republican (though he may find some common cause with the Chamber of Commerce wing of the AZGOP).

The story mentioned that he might be exploring a run in LD28 (looking to unseat Democratic State Rep. Eric Meyer).  As of this writing, the website of the AZSOS doesn't show him as establishing a campaign committee (statewide, exploratory, or legislative).

Just to be thorough, I checked the websites of the FEC and Maricopa County; no Glassman activity in either place as yet.

Edit on 7/27:  Rep Meyer is facing term limits in the House and has formed a committee for a Senate run.  He is expected to face the incumbent senator for LD28, Republican Adam Driggs.  As such, if Glassman does indeed go for a House seat, it will be an open seat.  However, unless he is better connected within the LD28GOP and can fend off would-be competitors before nominating signatures are filed, he will face a number of challengers.  

Many of whom may view themselves as having "waited their turn" and will be reluctant to step aside for an upstart.

Having said that, a Glassman primary victory isn't impossible, just difficult to foresee.

Apologies to readers for in my haste to complete this post, I didn't check Meyer's status while searching for any Glassman committees.

End edit...


...Also this past week, the US House of Representatives passed HB3009, punishing "sanctuary cities" (cities that don't notify the feds of the immigration status of people that come into contact with "the system").  The vote fell almost completely along party lines, but six Democrats crossed over to support this nugget of nativist grandstanding.

Including Arizona's own Kyrsten Sinema (CD9).

I don't know if she was always on the nativist train (support: her friendly relationship with the infamous Russell Pearce) or if she is triangulating, trying to gain the support of people who will never vote for her anyway (support: everything she has done since gaining the office), she is looking ever more vulnerable to a primary challenge.

I don't know if one will happen in 2016, but one is coming, and soon.

2016 Committees Update

...This will be a quick post because a lot of plans are on hold, waiting for Monday's pending decision by the US Supreme Court on the Arizona Legislature's attempt to usurp control of the state's redistricting process from the people of Arizona.  Once that decision is made public, the dominoes will start falling...


- In Maricopa County, Royce Flora, the deputy county treasurer, has filed for a run at the top spot in the office, currently held by Charles Hoskins, who is retiring.

Won't say that he is the "annointed" candidate, buuuuttttt... :)

From his campaign paperwork -

- The cities of Mesa, Tempe, and Scottsdale have been quiet on the candidate filings front.

- Filings for legislative seats have been quiet, though that will change once the Supreme Court hands down its decision.  Some legislators will decide to run for Congress, others will take a pass.  Which names do which will vary depending on the decision.

- Filings for runs for Congress and US Senate have also been quiet, and pretty much for the same reason.

While she hasn't filed anything yet (none that I could find, anyway), Democratic State Rep. Victoria Steele has announced that she is exploring a run for the Congressional seat, representing the 2nd Arizona district (basically, southern Arizona).

The seat is currently held by Martha McSally.  If the Supreme Court supports the Republicans in the state legislature, it is expected that they will strengthen the R advantage in that district (and most of the other Congressional districts in AZ, for that matter) and that Steele will take a pass.

If the status quo of having Congressional districts that are drawn by a voter-created Independent Redistricting Commission is maintained?

McSally is probably out of a job.

Kirkpatrick running for Senate: Dominoes will start falling

Crossposted from Blog for Arizona



...And I don't mean the pizza place, either...

With the announcement that Democratic Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick (CD1) will challenge John McCain (R-Warmonger) for the US Senate seat that he currently holds, expect current state legislators to look at the CD1 seat...and other, lower-level, electeds to look at running for the legislative seats being vacated by those looking to run for Congress, and so on.

And that's not even considering the possibility of one or more additional members of Congress going after McCain's seat (i.e. - Kyrsten Sinema (D-CD9) and/or Matt Salmon (R-CD5) ).

Nor does it consider the possibility of a political newby/unknown entering (and upending) a race.

And finally, it doesn't factor in what the Supreme Court will rule in the case before it, where the Republicans in the Arizona Legislature sued to wrest control of the decennial Congressional redistricting process from the voter-created Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission.  The USSC will issue its ruling on the issue in the coming weeks, and a ruling in favor of the legislature could result in a wholesale redrawing of Arizona's Congressional districts.

A ruling for the lege will result in many Rs jumping into races for what they consider to be "safe" districts; a ruling for the status quo will result in more Ds running for "competitive" districts.
Among the names being bandied about (and as the US Constitution requires only that candidates for Congress live in the state, not the district, most of these people could be considered to be carpetbaggers of a mild sort):

Update on 5/26/2015:

- Catherine Miranda, Democratic state senator, has already announced that she is "exploring" a run for the CD1 seat.  Her main claim to fame: she endorsed Republican Doug Ducey for governor in 2014, which probably won't help her much in a Democratic primary.

End Update...

- Andy Tobin, Republican former speaker of the AZ House, a former candidate for Congress, and current head of the soon-to-cease-to-exist Arizona Department of Weights and Measures

- Carlisle Begay, faux-Democratic state senator; had already been rumored to be considering a challenge to Kirkpatrick.  OK, the only real question about his candidacy was if he was going to run as a D or an R...


- Ben Quayle, R former Congressman; last seen working as a lobbyist

- Adam Kwasman, R former state representative and candidate for Congress

- Frank Antenori, R former state senator and candidate for Congress

- Russell Pearce, recalled R former president of the state senate (who has been making noises about a political comeback of some sort)

- Kelli Ward, R state senator who's exploring a challenge to McCain; she may decide that a run at a vacant Congressional seat is more viable

- Christine Jones, R former candidate for governor, who's always in the rumor mix when there is an open seat

- Chad Campbell, D former minority leader in the AZ House of Representatives, who is widely expected to run for a higher office.  The only real questions about that regard which office and when

- Paul Babeu, R sheriff in Pinal County.  Once considered a rising star among the Rs, he briefly ran for Congress in 2012.  During that campaign, news broke that he is gay.  End of campaign for Congress.  Still working the nativist circles in the Republican Party, so he may be looking for another run at higher office

- Jamescita Peshlakai, D state representative; unlike most of the people named about, she actually lives in northern AZ

- Chris Deschene, D former state legislator and former candidate for president of the Navajo Nation; widely respected and always on the short list of potential candidates in northern Arizona

- Ken Bennett, R former secretary of state and state legislator, he's been raising his visibility recently; while he now lives in Maricopa County, he has ties to northern AZ

More dominoes will fall once the USSC renders its decision, so stay tuned...

Kirkpatrick mounting a 2016 run for US Senate in 2016

The first "Wow!" moment of the 2016 election cycle, courtesy a tweet (via Facebook status) from Brahm Resnik of Phoenix channel 12 -

The full story is here.

It's 2015, but candidates are already filing for 2016

The calendar still says that it is 2015, but some candidates have already started filing paperwork for 2016 runs for office*.

* = Filing of campaign paperwork is no guarantee that a particular candidate will be on a ballot next year, or, if they've indicated a particular office on their current paperwork, that they will be running for that particular office in 2016.

In other words, this is a snapshot of right now.  Things will change in the weeks and months ahead.

Note: In the interest of brevity, most office holders who have filed for reelection to the same office will not be covered here

Note2: "R" = Republican, "D" = Democrat, "I" = Independent or other party


Committees for state level office (courtesy the website of the Arizona Secretary of State):

R Susan Bittersmith, current member of the AZ Corporation Commission, filed for reelection

R Bob Burns, current member of the AZ Corporation Commission, filed for reelection

R Daniel Cassidy, challenger, filed for LD24 House

D Barry McCain, challenger, filed for LD11 House

D Eric Meyer, current state representative, filed for LD28 Senate

I Alex O'Neil (full name: Michael Alexander O'Neil), challenger, filed for LD9 Senate

R Frank Pratt, current state representative, filed for LD8 Senate

R Brice Willoughby, challenger, filed for LD28 House

D Paula Aboud, former legislator, filed exploratory paperwork for an unspecified office

D Sean Bowie, challenger, filed exploratory paperwork for LD18 Senate

R Steve Montenegro, current state representative, filed exploratory paperwork for an unspecified office


Committees for Maricopa County offices:

R Bill Montgomery, current County Attorney, filed for reelection

R Helen Purcell, current County Recorder, filed for reelection

D John Rowan, challenger, filed for Sheriff

I Kenneth Wayne Baker, challenger, filed for Sheriff

R Roger Baldwin, challenger, filed for Sheriff

R Joe Arpaio, current County Sheriff, filed for reelection in 2013

D Tim Coomer, challenger, filed for Sheriff as a $500 Threshold Exception candidate (meaning that his committee cannot raise or spend more than $500 in pursuit of the office)


Committees for Pima County offices:

D Joel Feinman, challenger, filed exploratory paperwork for County Attorney




Committee for federal office:

D Cesar Chavez, aka former R Scott Fistler, challenger, filed for CD7

R Dave Giles, challenger, filed for CD9

R Gary Kiehne, challenger, filed for CD1

I John Mealer, challenger, filed for US Senate

R Kelli Ward, currently a state senator, filed exploratory paperwork for a run at R John "Never Met A War He Didn't Monger" McCain for US Senate, from the right (filed with the IRS, not the FEC)


Rumors (no paperwork yet, but fairly credible nonetheless):

R Ken Bennett, former AZSOS, is rumored to be looking at a CD9 run in the US Supreme Court allows the AZ legislature to redraw the district in a way that is less "competitive" and more "R-leaning"

R Matt Salmon, currently a member of Congress, is being urged to challenge McCain from the right for the US Senate seat

Arizona legislature: the coming week

There is going to be almost no committee activity this week as the lege looks to adjourn for the year.

Sources say that the goal of leadership is to wrap up by Thursday, but that they aren't optimistic about meeting that particular goal.

As of right now, expectations are that if the lege doesn't finish things up by the start of holiday period next weekend (it's a significant period in many faiths), the lege will adjourn for the weekend and come back to town next week for a day or two.

That would put sine die on Tuesday or Wednesday, still making this one of the shortest legislative sessions in memory (just a guess here, because I haven't been able to find a definitive record of such things, but if this session isn't the shortest ever, it is almost certainly the shortest non-election year session).

Having said all of that, Governor Doug Ducey may be the key here.  If he shows any indication that he is willing to sign off on some of the nuggets of ugly (aka - the crazy bills) that remain under legislative consideration, the session may continue until the bay at the moon caucus gets votes on everything that they want.

One thing to watch for this week: committee meetings scheduled on short notice.  As of right now, no bills are scheduled to be considered by any committee, but that can change in the time that it takes a lobbyist to write a check for a "campaign contribution".


Notes:

All committees meetings and agendas are subject to change without notice, and frequently do.  If you plan to travel to the Capitol to observe or weigh in on the consideration of a particular measure, check with the lege ahead of time to confirm that the meeting that you are interesting in is still on schedule and your item(s) of interest is still on the agenda for that meeting.

Meeting rooms designated "HHR" are in the House of Representatives building.

Meeting rooms designated "SHR" are in the Senate building.

Some agendas are summarized as "looks harmless", but if they cover an area of interest to you, examine the agenda and the bills on it.  If I missed something significant, please leave a comment letting me know.

All House committee agendas can be found here. All Senate committee agendas can be found here.


On the Senate side of the Capitol -

Other than the Rules committee, the Senate committees that are scheduled to meet have only executive nominations on their agendas. 

Water and Energy, Monday, 2 p.m., SHR3.  Executive nomination.

Rules, Monday, 1 p.m., Caucus Room 1.  Short agenda of bills to be rubberstamped on their way to floor consideration.

Commerce and Workforce Development, Monday, 1:45 p.m., SHR1.  Executive nominations.


Education, Tuesday, 9:30 a.m., SHR1.  Executive nominations.

Judiciary, Tuesday, 9:30 a.m., SHR109.  Executive nominations.


Public Safety, Military, and Technology, Wednesday, 9 a.m., SHR1.  Executive nomination.

Rural Affairs and Environment, Wednesday, 10 a.m., SHR109,  Executive nominations.

Government, Wednesday, 10 a.m., SHR1.  Executive nominations.  Includes the nomination of Andy Tobin, former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives, to be the director of the Department of Weights and Measures (DWM).  There is a live bill pending to close that department and speculation is that Tobin will use this as the foundation for another run at a seat in Congress (appealing to the "any government is bad government" crowd).

Best guess:  Assuming that the shutdown of DWM takes place and that Tobin runs for Congress, his plan is to get the hell out of Dodge Arizona before the inevitable scandal hits (you know, somebody, probably a well-connected somebody, increasing their profit margin by shorting something [i.e. - charging customers for a gallon of gasoline, but dispensing only 3/4 of a gallon])

Health and Human Services, Wednesday, 2 p.m., SHR1.  Executive nominations.


On the House side of the Capitol -

Rules, Monday, 1 p.m., HHR4.  Short agenda of bills to be rubberstamped on their way to floor consideration.



The House has posted a COW (Committee of the Whole) calendar here and here, a Final Read (to approve changes to bills made by the Senate; if they fail, they aren't dead.  They will go to aconference committee) calendar, and a Third Read calendar for Monday.

The Senate has posted a COW calendar here and here, and a Third Read calendar, for Monday.
 
The Capitol Events calendar is here.

Political Hot Stove Season: Time for some 2016 speculation

2014 results are in and the wounds have been licked (still sore, but not sore enough to distract from thinking about 2016).

It's time for a little speculation (these are pure WAGs; no actual journalism went into the making of this post :) ) -

US Senate:

Republican incumbent John McCain is "leaning toward" a run for another term.  If he chooses to not run, there will be a free-for-all on both sides, and even if he *does* run, there will be a primary on the R side - the tea party types feel that he is too liberal (apparently, pushing for a foreign policy of "kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out" means McCain is too merciful for their tastes) and will attack him from the right.

Since 2016 is a presidential election year and should be a stronger year for Democrats, there will be some strong candidates for the Senate race.  And if McCain doesn't run, that "some" will become "many".

At this point, it will be a bit of a shock if Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema doesn't take a long look at the race.  She's young, smart, and very focused on making it to higher office.  In most minds, it's not a matter of "if" she is going to run for the US Senate, but "when".

Other possible candidates:  Richard Carmona, the 2012 Democratic nominee for the US Senate seat currently held by Jeff Flake; Felecia Rotellini, the 2010 and 2014 Democratic nominee for Arizona Attorney General.  While she came up short in both races, she's seen as a good candidate who was swamped by Republican waves in both years.  In a D-leaning or even neutral year, she will be a formidable candidate.


CD2 - Whether or not Democrat Ron Barber pulls out this election (he's currently down 179 votes to Republican Martha McSally), 2014 is likely his last election.

Likely candidates:

State Senator Steve Farley - possibly as smart as Sinema, and certainly as ambitious.  Has long coveted a seat in Congress; 2016 may be his year.

Randy Friese, surgeon for Gabby Giffords after her shooting, and leading (faux) moderate Republican Ethan Orr for a seat in the state house of representatives by 182 votes.  Seen as the favored candidate of the Giffords machine (and have no doubt, the former Congresswoman still has some major influence in the district).


CD9 - If Sinema bolts for a Senate run, this competitive district will see brutal scrums on both sides of the ballot.  And even if she runs for this seat again, it would not be surprising to see primaries on both sides of the ballot.

On the Republican side of the ballot, I have no idea who will run, but I don't expect the nominee to be Wendy Rogers again.  She's come up short in three consecutive cycles (2010 state senate general, 2012 R Congressional primary, 2014 Congressional general), two of them being Republican "wave" years.  I don't if her desire to run for and hold elected office has faded, but 2016 Republican primary voters will probably turn to someone seen as less damaged.

On the Democratic side of the ballot, well, there are whispers about Sinema not exactly being a favorite of most of the grassroots activists in the district.  In other words, if she again is seen as "triangulating" in an effort to portray herself as Republican-lite, she will face a challenger.

And if she goes for a Senate seat, all hell will break loose on the Democratic side of the ballot.

Potential candidates include (but are not limited to):  LD24 legislators Chad Campbell (outgoing House Minority Leader), Katie Hobbs (incoming Senate Minority Leader), LD26 State Senator Ed Ableser, former and current members of the city councils in Phoenix and Tempe.


2015 special:  The winner of the mayoral race in Phoenix will be the mayor of Phoenix; the runner-up will likely mount a 2016 run for federal office, House or Senate (depends on what McCain does).  The likely candidates are incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton and Republican Sal DiCiccio.  Considering that DiCiccio fronted the failed anti-public employee ballot measure that went before Phoenix voters last week, he may reconsider.


Back to 2016 -

Other possibilities:  One or more sitting Democratic state legislators may take a run at a seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors.  Four out of the five supervisor districts are stacked in favor of the Republican incumbents, but in a presidential election year, with the expected "bounce-back" Democratic turnout, a candidate with name ID, access to money, and experience running a campaign?  Feasible enough for a look.



Both major parties will be holding their "reorganization" meetings in January; the results of those will serve as an indicator of the directions of the parties and also the ambitions of potential candidates - those folks who plan on a run at higher office will attempt to exert some influence over the makeup of their party's hierarchy.

On the Democratic side, don't be shocked if the Sinema machine works to get one of their allies the chairmanship of the state Democratic party to aid her potential run for Senate.

On the Republican side, long-time ideological bomb-thrower and chair of the Maricopa County Republicans AJ LaFaro will probably attempt to become the chair of his party's state organization...because he believes that the AZGOP's current anti-choice, anti-LGBT, anti-woman, anti-immigrant, anti-education...hell..anti- "everything" stances are still too liberal.


More to come...

Is Mike Huckabee a candidate for the GOPer presidential nomination in 2016?

...Normally, I am loathe to highlight GOPer events, especially fundraisers, but the "hidden" subtext on this one is so blatant that it merits coverage...

And before anyone thinks that would be surprise, it should be noted that no real GOP "frontrunner" has emerged, the closest being Rand Paul.  Given the pattern of the last couple of presidential election cycles, being anointed the "frontrunner" more than a couple of weeks out from the start of the Iowa caucuses is something to be avoided, not desired.

Mike Huckabee is not even mentioned much as someone who is a viable 2016 candidate for the Rs (not that he's being completely discounted, either) but he's doing the things that "serious" candidates do in midterm election years -

While higher-profile candidates such as Chris Christie are trekking to Iowa, New Hampshire, and other 2016 early primary/caucus states to make appearances in front of R voters there almost a year and half before any votes are cast, he's out racking up IOUs campaigning for R electeds and candidates running this year.

To whit, from the events page of the Pima County GOP:

Now Franks, as well as Salmon, Gosar, and Schweikert, sits in a seat in a district that is so safely R that he faces no serious Democratic opposition, nor is any expected for the foreseeable future.  For him (and them) building a campaign war chest is all about looking so strong that any potential primary challengers are scared off (is Ben Quayle still looking for a job?)

Doubtless, much money will end up in Franks' coffers (and those of Salmon, Gosar, and Schweikert) as a result of Huckabee's visit.

What remains to be seen is if Huckabee, a big Bible guy, reaps benefits from the political version of "casting bread upon the waters".

Rich Crandall: Out of a job in Wyoming, coming back to Arizona

Hey, I'm impressed that he lasted an entire winter in WY...

From the Arizona Republic - 

A former Arizona state senator who headed Wyoming's education department before a court reinstated that state's school superintendent as head of the agency says he's returning home to Arizona.

Rich Crandall was chosen for the Wyoming job by Gov. Matt Mead last summer, but he left last week after the state's superintendent reclaimed her responsibilities.

{snip}

Crandall says he's using up vacation days and officially leaves Wyoming state service May 1. He plans to return to Arizona in June and focus on running his family companies, possibly teaching and eventually looking for another job in education.

Crandall, a Republican from the Phoenix suburb of Mesa, said he has no plans to run again for a seat in Arizona's Legislature.

"Definitely not the Legislature, the time commitment's too much," Crandall said. "But maybe a school board. I love the community college system. Who knows?"

Amazingly, Crandall was the *better* option compared to Cindy Hill, the person he replaced in Wyoming (and who, in turn, replaced him).

According to this report from the Huffington Post, when she was previously in charge of the Wyoming state education department, she created an environment of physical fear and mismanaged the department so badly that even her fellow Rs felt she had to go.

Based on the article, he's not interested in becoming a state legislator again, but he *has* been a member of a school board in the past.  It may be too late in the cycle for him to seek a seat on one this time around (especially with logistics of moving from WY), but a 2016 run could be within his sights.

If he doesn't do something else before then (like go to work on an R presidential campaign - he is noted for having ties to the Jeb Bush camp).

NJ Governor Chris Christie: A "Not Ready For Prime Time" Politician?

Chris Christie, picture courtesy ABCNews.com

By now, everyone has heard of the political scandal in New Jersey -

Gubernatorial appointees there ordered the closure of two of the three lanes leading to the George Washington bridge. heading into Manhattan from New Jersey, creating a traffic jam that crippled Fort Lee, NJ for four days in September 2013.

When questions first arose, asked by, and spurred by, reports in the local newspaper, the Bergen County Record, the initial story was that it was part of a "traffic study".

That story didn't have a lot of credibility when no one involved could or would present actual verifiable evidence of the existence of such a study.

Then speculation grew, positing that the closure was not about a "study" but instead about a simple political vendetta.  The speculation was that the real object of the closure was to hurt the mayor of Fort Lee, Mark Sokolich.

Sokolich, a Democrat, has refused to endorse Christie, a Republican, during Christie's recent reelection campaign (which Christie handily won, despite not having Sokolich's endorsement).

That seemed to be too petty, even for someone with the bullying reputation of Christie, so speculation continued, focusing on the possibility that the retribution was directed at some legislative Democrats representing northern NJ.  They blocked a judicial appointment of Christie in response to Christie's removal of another judge based on partisan considerations, not merit.

Either way, while the Christie administration's vendetta (if, indeed, that's what it was) was aimed at specific political rivals, the impact of the vendetta fell upon the tens of thousands of people living in and around, and traveling near, Fort Lee.

This scandal has been growing, to the point that there are legislative hearings looking into it (with at least one former Christie appointee availing himself of his Constitutional protections against self-incrimination and refusing to answer questions) and talk of a federal investigation (using public resources for personal political gain is a crime).

On Thursday, Christie held a marathon press conference where he:

• Apologized.
• Claimed he knew nothing of the events until the newspapers reported on them.
• Blamed his staff, some of whom are/were long-term allies, saying that they had lied to him.  For years.
• Announced the firing of a couple of scapegoats.
• Claimed ignorance of the events until they became public knowledge.
• Apologized some more.
• Claimed some more ignorance.

It seems obvious that more evidence will come to light in this matter, so some of this may change in the coming weeks, but there are a couple of main likelihoods here.

Neither of which bode well for Christie's future.

One, Christie could be telling the truth (or something that's close to it), in which case he has no oversight of the activities of his closest staffers.  Meaning that as a president, he would be most like a blustery version of George W. Bush.

Two, Christie could have approved the lane closures.  Whether or not that approval was "direct" or of the "wink and a nod" variety, whether or not the intended target was the mayor of Fort Lee, legislative Democrats, or some as-yet unknown object of Christie's ire, impact of the lane closures fell upon thousands of people who had no part in New Jersey's political knife fights.

Now, I'm not an insider with the investigation, so this is little more than speculation on my part, but given the months of stonewalling while hoping this would go away followed by the disavowal and scapegoating when it didn't, this seems most like a political vendetta run by the modern equivalent of The Three Stooges.


Vendettas and "payback" (both positive and negative) are as much a part of politics as meetings and speechifying.

That's not limited to American-style politics, or even to governmental organizations, and human nature being what it is, it probably isn't going to change any time soon.

However as much a part of the fabric of politics vendettas may be, and however much people have accepted them as an inevitable part of that reality, there's a limit to that acceptance.

And harming thousands of people because one or few others may have ticked you off is well outside of that limit.


No matter how this situation ultimately works out, it shows that Christie is not ready for higher office.

Either he is a completely "hands-off" executive with an out-of-control staff, or he is the supremely petty bully that his reputation says he is.

Either way, he's not suited for the highest office in the country.

Having said all of the above, his presidential candidacy isn't toast.

Primary and caucus ballots won't be cast for another two years.

Two years is an eternity in modern politics.  He'll have time to clean up his image, plus most or all of the other candidates will have their own travails that will impact their viability as candidates.

I don't think he'll be able to fix this, spite and arrogance are too much a part of his persona, but I've been wrong about such things before.

Grab your popcorn and settle in; this mess is only the opening act in the 2016 stage show.