AZ political predictions 2026

 This is completely tongue-in-cheek (except for the parts that come true).  And mostly lege-oriented. 😃

January -

At the opening of the 2026 session of the Arizona State Legislature, Governor Katie Hobbs delivers her annual state of the state address.  When she talks about putting some guardrails on the state's school voucher program, the entire R caucus stands, turns around, drops trou, and moons her.

She responds by pulling out a straw and pelting them with spitballs made up of wads of paper from cut-up Culture War/GOP War on Society.

The GOPers express umbrage at being pelted with spitballs.

Hobbs responds by telling them that spitballs are plan A.

Plan B is a 20 gauge with rock salt loads.

The Rs opine that spitballs are OK with them.

February -

Michael Bidwill, owner of the NFL's Arizona Cardinals, announces that the team is so bad that it needs a bigger change than firing a head coach and, as he doesn't want to become Jerry Jones, he will step aside from his day-to-day duties there.

Since that will leave a large gap in his daily schedule, he's going to run for state legislature.

As a Republican (of course).

March -

Rep. Gail Griffin (R-LD19) introduces a bill to give all of Arizona's water and other natural resources to various corporations.

It passes the House on a party line vote.

On another party line vote, they pass a budget that eliminates all taxes on the wealthy and corporations, and pays for their largesse by defunding public education, public health, hell, "public" anything.

Governor Hobbs sends it back to the legislature.  After vetoing it, loudly and publicly.

April -

Candidates for 2026 turn in their nominating signatures...except for termed-out State Treasurer Kimberly Yee, a putative candidate for State Superintendent of Public Instruction (SPI).  She announces that she was always more interested in the Lieutenant Governor's gig than an SPI gig.

Griffin's pro-corporate/anti-Arizonan bill passes the Senate on a party line vote.  Governor Hobbs vetoes it and celebrates that veto with a Snoopy dance.

From Zazzle -

The legislature  is still in session with no budget in sight, so they while away the time by sending Governor Hobbs spitball material for next year's state of the state address.

May - 

The legislature finally passes a state budget that Governor Hobbs can sign and adjourns sine die.  The majority of them don't care about the public as much as they care about getting out of Phoenix and hitting the campaign trail as many of them face primary challenges.

June -

Cheeto makes a campaign appearance in Arizona, speechifying for his endorsees.

He makes his speech all about him and his professed grievances.

His endorsees and other MAGAts genuflect.

July -

Andy Biggs wins the R primary for Arizona Governor and almost immediately and publicly starts pondering who should be his running mate as his Lt. Governor candidate.  The field is quickly narrowed to Kimberly Yee and Mark Finchem.

August -

As his Lt. Gov running mate, Biggs selects...Kari Lake.  She can't win a statewide race, but she has one strength - she may be the one person in AZ politics who is more intensely disliked by those who have met her than Biggs.  Biggs thinks he'll look good by comparison.

September -

Cheeto returns to AZ to stump for R candidates. 

During his speech, he shows his solidarity with the Rs in the AZ legislature/dementia by turning around, dropping trou, and mooning the audience.  

The R candidates and other MAGAts swoon.

October -

Reading the falling poll numbers for R officeholders and candidates, Cheeto and his acolytes do some preliminary blame shifting, complaining about fraud in elections.

November -

An electoral bloodbath takes place, with Rs up and down the ballot getting their butts handed to them.

Cheeto and his acolytes try to annul the elections because they don't like the results.

It doesn't work, with most folks saying "welcome to democracy."

December -

Kari Lake is a party to a lawsuit seeking to overturn the 2026 results.

She loses that lawsuit.

Most candidates yawn and start preparing for runs in 2030 (statewide races) or 2028 (county or legislative races).

Legislative schedule - week starting 1/4/2026

This week is "the calm before the storm" as the Arizona legislature is still out of session this week but will reconvene next week.  This coming week is commonly referred to as "Hell Week."  An explanation of sorts is below.

There's only one official committee meeting on the schedule this coming week.

 On Monday, 1/ 5 - Nada.

On Tuesday, 1/6 

-

Senate Ad Hoc Committee on Access to Breakthrough Mental Health Therapies meets at 10 a.m. in SHR2.  On the agenda: no bills; four presentations.

On Wednesday, 1/7 and Thursday, 1/8 - Nada.

"Hell Week" is the week before the legislative session.  Lobbyists, under AZ law, are specifically forbidden from making campaign contributions to sitting legislators during the legislative session. 

From ARS 41-1234.01 -

They get around that restriction by holding parties/events before the session and created to funnel money to sitting state legislators (not a partisan thing - while most of the recipients of lobbyist largesse are Rs, some Ds attend those parties, too).  While those cash parties are easily as much a part of legislative life as committee meeting, they won't appear on any legislative calendar.

Another way for lobbyists to evade the law is to buy "donate to" candidates before they become legislators.  Those transactions can happen at any time.

Legislative schedule - week starting 12/28/2025

This is New Year's week, so there's nothing going on at the AZ state legislature.

I expect the following week to be busier, as the 2026 session of the AZ starts on 1/12/2026.

Of course, I could be wrong (shockingly, it DOES happen.  On rare occasion. ☺

Last year, during the week before the start of the session, there was one meeting -

In 2024, during the period, there were five meetings - 

Either way, the week before the start of the legislative session should be best described as "The Calm Before The Storm."

Note: As of this writing, legislators have "prefiled" 183 measures for the coming session -

Like sands through the hourglass, the Arizona State Legislature will return. It's inevitable.

Something else is inevitable, too - They won't do their job, starting on 1/12/2026.

Thus far, they've introduced 182 measures (bills or memorials/resolutions).  Most of those won't be approved by both chambers and of those that do, many won't make it past the governor's veto.

Some fall into the "Culture War" category (aka - "the GOP's War on America") -

Some fall into The "Fear the Other" subcategory (Rep. John Gillette's [R-Shameless Bigot] HCM2001)

Some into the "Anti Early Voting" subcategory (Rep Alexander Kolodin's [R-Running for AZ Secretary of State in order to upend elections] HCR2001)

Some into the "Anti LGBTQ+" subcategory (Rep Selina Bliss' [R- I thought she was less insane than the others. I was wrong) HCR2003)

Some into the "Anti-Vaxxer" subcategory (Rep Nick Kupper's [R-Don't Know Much About Him, But I'll Have to Start Paying More Attention) HB2005)

Some into the "Anti Choice" subcategory (Bliss' HB2043)

Some into the "Anti Public Education" subcategory (Rep. David Livingston's [R-Heavily Armed] HB2075)

Some into the "Anti Poor People" subcategory (Sen. John Kavanagh's [Center for AZ Policy's Water Carrier] SB1002)

Some into the "Anti Fluoride" subcategory (Sen. Janae Shamp's [R-Just Plain Nuts] SB1019]

Some into the "Anti Science" subcategory (Sen. David Farnworth's [R-Foisting His Fundie Religious Dogma of the Rest of Society] SB1025)

Some into the "Trump Worship" subcategory (Shamp's SB1070)

...You get the idea.  Republican legislators will do a LOT of Culture War preening in 2026.  It's an election year, and they want to win any primaries.

GOP state legislators aren't ALL about Culture War issues, though.

Rep. Gail Griffin (R-W2 or 1099?) has already introduced her usual spate of bills to protect and even enhance industry profits, not to help the people of AZ.

Sen. John Kavanagh is a multitasker - he hates pretty much EVERYTHING.  Including public disclosure of misdeeds by scofflaw legislators.  In addition to his various Culture War measures, he's introduced SB1022, intended to stop disclosure of images from "photo enforcement systems."

He *really* doesn't like it when legislators are shown to be hypocrites who believe that laws don't apply to them.

He's also introduced a "protect the wealthy" measure.  His SB1033 seeks to exempt the sales of vacation homes from municipal sales tax.

Of course, some of the proposals seem to be mildly contradictory.  Kupper's HB2059 seeks to remove speed limits, under certain circumstances, while Kavanagh's SB1073 seeks to impose them, under certain circumstances.

To be fair, the bills may not be totally contradictory - their "circumstances" aren't the same.

Lastly, legislators are specifically barred from creating legislation that is targeted at a specific municipality.  One of the ways they get around this requirement is by being hyper-specific, crafting language in a bill that doesn't mention a municipality by name but can only apply to one city.  Bliss' HB2080 seems to be a very example of this.  The language from her bill:  "In a city or town with a population of more than two thousand five hundred persons but less than ten thousand persons, whose population growth rate did not exceed an average of two percent per year for the ten-year period before the most recent United States decennial census and whose current general plan was approved by the voters..."

Hmmm...

What a difference a day makes!

Yesterday, I wrote a post listing all of the folks who have expressed an interest in being a candidate for Congress in AZCD1.  That's already changed.

From AZFamily -

Former Cardinals kicker Jay Feely switches congressional districts in Arizona race

Former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely has switched his congressional campaign from the East Valley to Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, joining a crowded Republican primary in Scottsdale.

The move comes after President Donald Trump endorsed former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb in the Fifth Congressional District last month, sending Feely a message to run in a different district.

I think that Feely is able to utilize the same federal committee that he used for his CD5 run as for his CD1 run.  However, I'm not a lawyer, so I could easily be wrong about that.

If he can, he hasn't updated his committee yet.

From the FEC -

Get your popcorn and shock absorbers out - it's going to be entertaining though bumpy ride

Legislative schedule - week starting 12/21/2025

 This is Christmas week, so there's nothing going on at the AZ state legislature.

Horse Race time - Chaplik is in the AZCD1 race

News broke this week that Republican state representative Joe Chaplik (LD3) has entered the race the outgoing member of Congress in CD1, David Schweikert.  

Schweikert is running for governor of Arizona.

The person most hurt by his entry into the CD1 race may be Gina Swoboda.  She's the current chair of the AZGOP, and prior to Chaplik's entry, the biggest "name" in the race (quotes used because while they have more notoriety/name recognition than the other candidates, it's limited [not everyone is a political geek like me and know who major party chairs and members of the state legislature are])

The person most helped by his entry into the CD1 race may be one of those low name rec candidates.  If Swoboda and Chaplik spend the primary season launching political haymakers at each other, it may open up a path to victory in that race for one the others.

Also, while nominating signatures are due to be submitted by April 6, 2026, it's still early enough for a well-funded "big name" to enter the race.

Currently 12 Democrats and 10 Republicans have filed a Statement of Interest (SOI) in the race (filed with the Arizona Secretary of State)and/or formed a committee for run with the FEC (one Libertarian has an open committee, but is was formed in 2024 and has been receiving letters about a failure to file reports, so that person may not be running this year).

Below is a list of folks who have filed an SOI and/or formed a committee for a run next year.  In the date section, if no year is specified, the year is 2025.  Also, one date format is month (as text) followed by date.  That's because my spreadsheet program kept changing 3/4 to a fraction.

The vast majority of potential D candidates here filed their paperwork before Scheikert exited the race; the vast majority of Rs did so after.

Not all people who express interest/form a committee will be on a ballot.

I'm not going make any prediction regarding the outcome of race for the R nomination here - my prognosticating ability in R races is almost nonexistent.

As for the D race, no prediction until I see who's actually going to be on the ballot.

Caveat: CD1 in my district.

Dear Cheeto: Please visit Arizona

Democratic candidates here need the boost.

From The Hill -

Trump’s ramped up travels pose risk, reward for GOP ahead of 2026

President Trump is set to ramp up his appearances on the campaign trail in support of Republicans ahead of next year’s midterms, with the White House and its allies banking on his ability to turnout low-propensity voters.

Trump traveled to Pennsylvania this week for what is expected to be the start of an increasingly busy travel schedule as the calendar turns to 2026. That appearance showcased both the risks and rewards for the GOP of putting Trump front-and-center: Trump turned out an enthusiastic crowd in a key Pennsylvania county, but his remarks garnered attention for his tirades against immigrants and his dismissive comments about affordability.

My guess is that his handlers/sycophants will advise him to make campaign appearances during primary season in order to support his preferred candidates, but in general elections, his presence won't help.

Many of the R nominees, even some of his "preferred" candidates, in the general, will look to distance themselves from his policies, his grifting, his pedophilia, and him personally.  Especially if those candidates believe they have a chance of winning their general election contests.

Initially, he'll ignore his handlers, but then general election candidates will stop extending invitations to him.

It's easy to be a Democrat

[rides tall equine animal up to blogging platform and begins spouting off]

...For me, anyway.

I always* vote for the better human being in any election, and the next time the R nominee in any race is even a decent human being will the first time in a very long time.

* caveat - To show voting is an ongoing learning process, I have decided that I won't vote for someone,  even the better human being in a race, if I have to hold my nose in order to vote for that person.  Better to just skip that race.

It's called "The Sinema Rule."

Some people (OK, *me* :) ) think of a political campaign as an extended group job interview and too many candidates are elected/hired after promulgating a platform of "You should hire me because I'm not gonna do the job."

It's not a partisan thing - I hope that ALL elected officials are decent human beings (OK, you can stop laughing at my wide-eyed idealism now :) ).

I don't expect that all will agree with me one everything (though they should because I'm always right.  Just ask me.  For readers who don't have an onboard sarcasm detector, and need it pointed out - that was sarcasm.  I'm not always right.)

[/gets off high horse]

Legislative schedule - week starting 12/14/2025

There's one meeting on the legislature's schedule next week.  I admit, I thought there would be more during the last full week before Christmas.  I was wrong (It happens, just not often. 😁 )

On Monday, 12/15 and Tuesday, 12/16 - Nada.

On Wednesday, 12/17 

-

Obesity Treatment Study Committee meets at 12 p.m. (noon) in SHR1.  On the agenda: no bills; one presentation, discussion, and some recommendations.

On Thursday, 12/18 - Nada.

ICE welcomes Adelita Grijalva to Congress with pepper spray

Of course, if asked about it, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Cheeto's pet) will probably do his best Sgt. Shultz imitation and claim to "know nothing" (yes, I'm showing my age with that reference 🤣)

From Pinterest -

From CNN -

Democratic congresswoman says she was pepper-sprayed during 

ICE raid in Arizona

Rep. Adelita Grijalva said Friday she was pepper-sprayed and pushed around during an Immigration and Customs Enforcement raid in Tucson, Arizona, a claim that the Department of Homeland Security swiftly disputed.

The Arizona Democrat said in a video on X the incident occurred near a restaurant she frequents and that she came upon a scene of “maybe 40 ICE agents, most of them masked, in several vehicles” who had been “stopped” in the street by people who she said “were afraid they were taking people without due process.”

Legislative schedule - week starting 12/7/2025

There is some intersession activity at the state legislature this week as they careen toward the 2026 session.

On Monday, 12/8 

-

Joint Legislative Audit Committee meets at 1 p.m. in SHR109.  On the agenda: no bills; reports on special audits of one state agency and four schools and/or districts and assorted other items.

On Tuesday, 12/9 - Nada.

On Wednesday, 12/10 

-

Vulnerable System Study Committee meets at 1 p.m. in SHR1.  On the agenda: no bills.

On Thursday, 12/11 - Nada.

Ol' Reliable, State Sen. John Kavanagh (R-LD3), is back for yet another legislative session

Of course, that may not be a good thing, as he's getting his hate on for poor people, elections, and public schools.

His SB1002 is all about adding verification requirements to TANF/SNAP fund disbursements and prosecuting certain recipients.

His SB1003 proposes to add one phrase to election law in many places (re: canvasses of elections) - 

"ACKNOWLEDGE WITHOUT PREJUDICE"

His using the phrase "without prejudice" probably doesn't mean "without regard to a candidate's ethnicity, race, gender, or gender preference."

Nope.  Not from one of the Center for Arizona Policy's (CAP) favorite legislators (he's already stated he wishes to propose sending CAP's anti-LGBTQ bathroom measure directly to the voters and bypass Governor Katie Hobbs' veto pen).

My guess is that the phrase is his way of saying "if voters don't the way we want, we'll just say the results don't count."

His SB1004 proposes to further the ESA (school voucher) budget-busting scam by mandating that students whose parents are recipients of ESAs be allowed to participate in/try out for "interscholastic activities"  (aka - sports) in the school district that covers the area of their residence (with certain exceptions).

While I don't believe that people, in this case, students, should be punished for the actions of others, neither should they be rewarded.

Bottom line: the parents of the students decided to weaken public schools in order to enhance their personal financial positions, and their children should not be rewarded for that.

Not allowing them to participate in public school sports (et. al.) doesn't qualify as "punishment" because it doesn't take away anything from them that they already have.

Kavanagh is consistent - my guess is that he'll propose many anti-poor people, anti-choice, anti-LGBTQ, and anti-public education bills...as well as one (or more!) bill that's both pro-police and anti society.

Legislative schedule - week starting 11/30/2025

While there is nothing on the legislature's schedule at this point, that may change. We're in the post-Thanksgiving and pre-Christmas period - there are many intersession meetings now.

In other words, keep an eye out for changes.

AZ legislature 2026: And the first one out of the gate is...

In normal years, sitting legislators usually don't start "prefiling" measures for an upcoming session until December of the prior year.

This year, however, some members have already started filing measures.

While it is still early (obviously), the measures offer some insight into the content of the coming session.

The 2026 session of the Arizona State Legislature will be loaded with MAGA/anti-democracy/anti-society propaganda.

In the House -

The first "Concurrent Resolution" (intended to bypass a gubernatorial veto and go directly to the voters) is HCR2001, prefiled by Rep. Alexander Kolodin (R-LD3) and co-sponsored by a rogues' gallery of extremist Rs on 11/15.  Among other things, it would serve to greatly reduce mail-in voting.  One HCR has been filed thus far.

The first "Memorial" (aka - a love letter to Congress, asking them to do something in particular about a specific topic) is HM2001 prefiled by Rep. Khyl Powell (R-LD14) on 11/17.  It asks Congress to withdraw the United States from the UN.  Other HMs from Powell seek to go after the International Monetary Fund, the Bureau of Industry and Security, and the US-Mexico-Canada agreement   Four HMs have been filed thus far.

The first "Bill" (a proposed change to AZ law) is HB2001, prefiled by Rep. Selina Bliss (R-LD1) on 11/17.  It proposes to all but eliminate early voting.  20 HBs have been filed thus far.

There is also some "sneaky" language in the HB2001 -

I expect that if bill fails or otherwise doesn't move forward, this particular language [removal] will be inserted into another bill.

In the Senate -

The first Concurrent Resolution is SCR1001, prefiled by Sen. Shawnna Bolick on 11/15.  It looks to be a duplicate of the previously mentioned HCR2001.  One SCR has been filed thus far.

As of this writing, no Memorials have been filed in the Senate.

The first Bill is SB1001, prefiled by Sen. Frank Carroll on 11/17.  It proposes -

That's it; that's the entire bill.

Note: DES doesn't have a specific program by that name, though if the bill moves forward, it could be amended to include a specific name.

One SB has been filed thus far.

In other words, get ready for a bumpy ride when the lege returns to Phoenix.