The survey results (of presidential historians) are in! Unsurprisingly, Cheeto is considered to be the worst-ever POTUS.

He's certainly the worst of my lifetime*.

Technically, I was alive during the LBJ administration, but I don't have a memory of him as POTUS.  Though

From NPR -

In historians' Presidents Day survey, Biden vs. Trump is not a close call

President Biden is in a tight race to keep former President Donald Trump from reclaiming the White House, recent polls show. But that's not how 154 historians and presidential experts see it: They rate Biden in the top third of U.S. presidents, while Trump ranks dead last.

The 2024 edition of the Presidential Greatness Project Expert Survey has Biden in 14th place, just ahead of Woodrow Wilson and Ronald Reagan. Trump comes in 45th, behind fellow impeachee Andrew Johnson and James Buchanan, the perennial cellar-dweller in such ratings due to his pre-Civil War leadership.

The historians rated Barack Obama highly, and as I consider him to be the best POTUS of my lifetime, I don't disagree with them on Obama or Cheeto.  In between, however, there are some differences.

They rated Obama 7th overall and the best of my lifetime (and the highest ranked living ex-president), so I agree with that one.

Bill Clinton and Joe Biden were ranked 12th and 14th, respectively.  Clinton's ranking is a little high for my taste - top half, certainly though.  As for Joe Biden, I think he deserves an incomplete because his term is ongoing.

Ronald Reagan is ranked 16th, which is way too high - he took advantage of Richard Nixon's criminality. Society was tired and wanted someone in the White House who reminded them of the "good ol' days".

George HW Bush was ranked 19th, which was a little high, but I think that his biggest failing was that he wasn't Reagan - most of the folks who voted for him were hoping for a 3rd Reagan term.  They didn't get that.

Jimmy Carter was ranked 22nd, near the middle of the pack.  I have always thought he was underrated as a POTUS

Gerald Ford was ranked 27th; I don't disagree with that, but since he was an unelected placeholder who replaced Nixon, an incomplete might be appropriate here.

George W. Bush was ranked 32nd (which was way too high in my estimation) and until Cheeto, was the worst POTUS of my lifetime and it wasn't even close (I don't believe that it's a coincidence that both people who were the worst at being POTUS in my lifetime have MBAs - POTUS isn't a gig where the concept of right and wrong synchs up with profitable and not profitable.)  Also, W was in charge of the most corrupt presidential administration ever.

At least until Cheeto came along.

The biggest reason that I rate W ahead of Cheeto is, as bad as he was, is that I never thought he was a traitor.

Nixon was ranked 35th, which I feel is too high.  He made cynicism about politicians part of the American psyche.

Cheeto was ranked 45th.  The main reason he wasn't ranked lower is because there aren't more Presidents.

What's old is new again for the NRA

Found this in my email from ConservativeIntel, a conservative fundraising organization -

Appealing to fear is NOT a new tactic for the NRA, especially against Democrats.  And there's one in the White House now.

From CNBC

In 2012, they went after then-president Barack Obama.

From Billboard.  Not a pic of him as president, but I like the pic.

From Politifact, dated 6/15/2012 -

Is the NRA right that Obama is 'coming for our guns'?

[snip]

"The gun control debate is over," said Rick Wilson, a GOP political consultant. "We live in a country where guns are a fundamental part of mainstream American culture. The moment I saw that Walmart now sells AR-15s (a type of semi-automatic rifle), I knew the debate was over."

[snip]

In a new campaign mailer -- the contents of which we expect to be repeated in emails and at dinner tables -- the gun rights group is casting Obama as a gun control crusader who is "coming for our guns."

In 2000, they went after then-president Bill Clinton.

From The White House

From CBS, dated 3/15/2000 -

NRA Targets Clinton

In televised ads and media interviews, the National Rifle Association has launched an all out attack on the Clinton administration as the president lobbies for more extensive gun laws in the wake of recent shootings.

But as CBS News Correspondent Jim Stewart reports, that's not just hot smoke and insults the NRA is blowing at President Clinton. It's a tried and true political strategy.

In the past week, the president has blamed the NRA for influencing lawmakers to stall gun control reforms, and the rifle association has accused the president of dragging his feet on enforcing existing gun laws. Then the gun group charged the president tolerated gun violence for political advantage.

Observers say the strategy looks familiar.

Every time there's a school shooting or mass killing, Clinton urges passage of new gun control laws. And every time—in order to deflect from the carnage, say some observers—you can count on the NRA to attack Clinton.

In 2016, they went after then-presidential candidate (and former US Senator and Secretary of State) Hillary Clinton.

From the National Women's History Museum

From US News and World Report, dated 9/22/2016 -

NRA Ad: Hillary Clinton Could Get Rid of Your Guns

A new advertisement from the National Rifle Association asserts that Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton will take away people's right to self-defense via firearm.

The ad, which runs for 30 seconds, features a woman in bed hearing the sound of breaking glass in her house and leaping up to call 911.

“She’ll call 911," a narrator says. "Average response time: 11 minutes. Too late.”

The woman reaches for a safe and inputs the code to get out a handgun, but then the safe and the gun disappear.

“She keeps a firearm in this safe for protection. But Hillary Clinton could take away her right to self-defense,” the narrator explains. “And with Supreme Court justices, Hillary can.”

It's been said that consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.

The NRA is *very* consistent.

Don't bother staying up late to see the results of the Arizona presidential primary

The Presidential Preference Election in Arizona (what we folks here call our presidential primary) is over.  At least it will be after some stragglers in Maricopa County vote.

(The consistent ineptitude/malice of Maricopa County's chief elections officer, Helen Purcell, can and will be the subject of a separate post in the near future.)

The MSM pundits will soon declare one or the other candidate to be the "winner", even though most of them know full well that pledged Democratic delegates in Arizona are awarded proportionally, with candidates needing to reach 15% of the vote to earn any delegates.

Given that there are two main candidates (Sen. Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton) running fairly evenly (with Clinton ahead) nationwide, both should attain that 15% threshold easily.

Based on that, the "winner" will be expected to earn more than half of Arizona's pledged delegates, but nowhere near all of them.

Except that it's not quite that simple.


The Arizona Democratic Party does, in fact, award its pledged delegates proportionally, and 15% is the minimum vote threshold needed by any candidate to receive some.

Where it gets complicated is in the fact that delegates are awarded based on *Congressional District* and the 15% threshold applies to each district's votes.

From the Delegate Selection Plan crafted by the Arizona Democratic Party -

To sum up, mathematically, a candidate could "lose" statewide, but still end up with more pledged delegates than the "winner" if he or she wins in a couple of districts by a large enough margin to shut out the other candidate while finishing far behind the other candidate in the other districts, but still earning enough of the vote in those places to break the 15% threshold.

Or to sum up the "sum up", don't go to bed thinking you know how the Arizona primary turned out.

It won't be "over" until all of the district level results are tallied.

Bill Clinton coming to Tempe for Richard Carmona

Former President Bill Clinton is coming to ASU in Tempe as part of a rally for Richard Carmona, the Democratic nominee for US Senate who has been surging in recent polls.  RSVP here.

Basic info:

Date: Wednesday, October 10
Place: ASU Tempe, Sun Devil Performance Lawn, 650 South Athletes Place, Tempe, Arizona 85287
Time: Open at 8 p.m; rally starts at 9 p.m. 

 



Hilllary Clinton: Expected to fail as Secretary of State...

...not because she is unqualified or even simply a bad person, but because of something totally out of her control.

Rush Limbaugh likes her selection as USSOS.

From Newsweek -

Rush Limbaugh has seldom been a fan of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. But the conservative radio pundit has given his blessing to her selection as the next secretary of state.

He calls it "a brilliant stroke" by President-elect Barack Obama, who opposed Clinton for the Democratic nomination.

Rush Limbaugh applauding an appointment/nomination by a Democratic president is like me applauding a free agent signing by the New York Yankees.

As a lifelong Red Sox fan, I only applaud moves by the Yankees that I thnk make them weaker. Something tells me that Limbaugh has a similar (or harsher!) attitude toward Democrats.

Later!

Quotes from the Democratic Convention

Most of these are from the "as prepared for delivery" press releases (my note-taking ability couldn't keep up; hence, for most of the speakers, I didn't even try...); some are from different meetings and forums...

"With profound gratitude and great humility, I accept your nomination for the presidency of the United States." - Senator Barack Obama during his acceptance speech...

"All of us driven by a simple belief that the world as it is just won't do — that we have an obligation to fight for the world as it should be. " - Michelle Obama...

"We need a president who puts the Barney Smiths before the Smith Barneys." - Barney Smith, former Republican and former RCA worker whose job was sent overseas...

"This is our time. This is our moment to change the course of history." - Mark Udall, Colorado Congressman and candidate for U.S. Senate...

"For every American who is trying to do the right thing, for all those people in government who are honoring their pledge to uphold the law and honor the Constitution, no longer will you hear the eight most dreaded words in the English language: "The Vice President's office is on the phone." " - Senator and Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee Joe Biden...

"If every criminal has the right to see a lawyer, every family should have the right to see a doctor." - John Melcher, former U.S. Senator from Montana, at a meeting of the Senior Caucus (This was a major talking point among the health care reform crowd; I heard it from other speakers at various meetings, but Melcher was the first I heard, so he gets credit. )

"Barack Obama had the good judgment to know that we should not risk the lives of our brave soldiers in the wrong war." - Illinois Senator Richard Durbin...

"That's a thousand dollar hat on a 10-cent head." - Populist and Texan Jim Hightower to the Rural Caucus, discussing pictures of George W. Bush wearing a cowboy hat while clearing brush on his Texas ranch, the one that has not cattle.

"Card laid, card played - keep your word." - Representative Mike Honda (D-CA), speaking at the Veterans' Caucus about the plight of Filipino WW2 veterans who were screwed out of their benefits by Congress immediately after the war (but it's a valid sentiment in other areas, too)...

"Senator McCain likes to talk about judgment, but really, what does it say about your judgment when you think George Bush has been right more than ninety percent of the time?" - Senator Barack Obama...

"These are extraordinary times. This is an extraordinary election. The American people are ready. I'm ready. Barack is ready. This is his time. This is our time. This is America's time." - Senator Joe Biden...

"It's not because John McCain doesn't care. It's because John McCain doesn't get it." - Senator Barack Obama...

"We honor McCain's service; we ask him to honor ours." - Cecil Roberts, President of the United Mine Workers, speaking at the Veterans' Caucus...

"McCain has been AWOL on Veterans' issues." - Colonel Richard Klass, USAF (Ret.)

"...we don't need four more years . . . of the last eight years." - Senator Hillary Clinton...

"In Washington, they call this the Ownership Society, but what it really means is - you're on your own." - Senator Barack Obama, referring to the Republicans' 'trickle-down' theory of economics [which I call 'tinkle-down' economics]...

"Obama will be a great president, but he can't do this alone. He needs your help." - Congressman John Dingell...

"All the governors need a partner in the White House, and Barack Obama will be that partner." - Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio...

"I will eliminate capital gains taxes for the small businesses and the start-ups that will create the high-wage, high-tech jobs of tomorrow. - Senator Barack Obama...

"No way. No how. No McCain." - Senator Hillary Clinton...

"It was the classiest thing that I've heard in 32 years of coming to these conventions." - DNC Chairman Howard Dean, referring to Sen. Hillary Clinton's speech on convention Tuesday.

"McCain may pay hundreds of dollars for his shoes, but we will pay for his flip flops." - New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson...

"I will cut taxes - cut taxes - for 95% of all working families." - Senator Barack Obama...

"Barack Obama will lead us away from division and fear of the last eight years back to unity and hope. If, like me, you still believe America must always be a place called Hope, then join Hillary, Chelsea and me in making Senator Barack Obama the next President of the United States." - former President Bill Clinton...

"The forces of the status quo are desperately afraid of the change that Barack Obama represents." - Al Gore, former Vice President, Nobel Peace Prize recipient, and Oscar winner...

"Barack Obama is my candidate. And he must be our President." - Senator Hillary Clinton...

"Thank you, God Bless you, and God Bless the United States of America." - Senator Barack Obama...

In the news...

...Congrats all the way around to LD17's legislative delegation of Senator Meg Burton Cahill, Representative Ed Ableser, and Representative David Schapira (Democrats, one and all). Each earned a grade of 100% from the Arizona League of Conservation Voters in their Legislative Scorecard for the 2008 session. While there were many high-scoring districts, LD17 was the only district where more than one legislator earned a grade of 100%.

On the opposite end of the scale was LD3, with Sen. Ron Gould and Reps. Trish Groe and Nancy McClain (Rs one and all - of course) earning an average score of 27%.

...While it's been a lot of fun to watch the LD18 Republicans tear themselves apart (LOTS of fun :) ), the media coverage of all of the negative campaigning and polls conducted by Republican firms has all but ignored Tammie Pursley and Judah Nativio, the strong Democratic candidates in the west Mesa district (for House and Senate, respectively). However, the EV Tribune ran a full story on Nativio on Thursday. It was a pretty good piece, one that pointed out that the race for the LD18 senate seat won't end on September 2nd when the contest between immigration attorney (and brother-in-law of Congressman Jeff Flake) Kevin Gibbons reaches its conclusion.

The real race will just be beginning.

...Friday morning at 10, the AZ Democrats will be holding a rally to highlight John McCain's close ties to Big Oil. The rally will take place from 10 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. on the southwest corner of 48th St. and Thomas, across from the Mobil station.

...Apparently nobody told McCain and the Republicans that they've been calling themselves the party of private property rights - they're getting sued for misappropriating and misusing someone's private property.

From AP -

Jackson Browne sues McCain, RNC over song in ad

Jackson Browne doesn't want John McCain running on anything fueled by his lyrics.

The singer-songwriter sued McCain and the Ohio and national Republican committees in U.S. District Court in Los Angeles on Thursday, accusing them of using his song "Running on Empty" without his permission.

Perhaps their "respect" for private property rights just doesn't apply to the property of famous liberals...

...In an example of willful irony (OK, it was shameless hypocrisy, but I'm trying to be tactful here - this isn't supposed to be an unmitigated McCain-bashing post), McCain has criticized the Russian invasion of Georgia (the country, not the state), saying things like "In the 21st century, nations don’t invade other nations."

Iraq, John. Iraq.

...Darragh Murphy, head of PUMA PAC, an organization that purports to be a group of grassroots Hillary Clinton supporters working to secure her nomination at the Democratic Convention in two weeks, has some credibility problems.

It turns out that in 2000, she supported John McCain in the Republican Presidential primary to the tune of $500.

Can you say "astroturf"?

This stuff and other stuff about PUMA PAC has been going around the internet for a more than a month now, but she was blathering (and getting ripped apart) on Hardball on Thursday. So I figured that it was my turn (I know a couple of Clinton delegates who read this blog).

...And in goofy news of the day, a Chandler resident wants his city to sue the Obama campaign because he feels that the campaign's logo is so similar to the City of Chandler's logo that it constitutes trademark infringement. (AZ Republic)

I think it's BS, but you decide (logos courtesy the AZRep article linked above) -

Later!

Enough Already

You know it's a tough week when I find myself in agreement with Greg at Espresso Pundit... :))

During an interview last week, Hillary Clinton made a remark that the mentioned the June 1968 assassination of Robert F. Kennedy.

That set off a firestorm of criticism on the internet and by media pundits ever since. Most took the view that her remark was some sort of wish/threat that Barack Obama could be assassinated.

(Don't believe me? Just go to Google's 'advanced news search' and use the words "Clinton" and "RFK" and set it to "search by date - newest first.")

Anyway, after reading the remarks in print and watching the YouTube video of the interview, I find myself in agreement with many of the pundits - she did mis-speak that day.

However, her mistake was not her reference to the assassination of Bobby Kennedy.

At most, the hubbub is an overblown reaction to a clumsily delivered line (see: the uproar over John Kerry's lack of education/Iraq war jab at George Bush). From the context of the video, it's clear that her point was that primary races frequently last until the end (or nearly the end) of primary seasons.

Even Obama, Clinton's opponent in the hard-fought Democratic primary, says that her remark was more careless than malicious.

Instead, her mistake, and it is one that she has repeated more than once, is her equating of herself and her husband to the Kennedys.

While the Kennedys are a *long* way from perfect (hell, what family is perfect??), they do have a long history, covering multiple generations of the family, of public service. A history that compares favorably with any other family's.

Actually, few families have a history that is even in the same ballpark as theirs.

The Clintons? Not so much.

When she has nieces, nephews, and grandchildren with careers in public service including politics, charity, and even some military service, maybe she can talk about the Clintons and the Kennedys in the same breath.

That time hasn't come to pass yet, and may never


Anyway, her RFK reference, while clumsy, doesn't merit the sort of rhetorical pigpile that she has been subjected to. It's been unfair, and on the part of the media pundits (Faux News, Chris Matthews, etc.), it's also been unprofessional.

I'm not a huge fan of Hillary Clinton, but this needs to be said -

Enough already.

OK, it's all over but the shouting...

...and the 'shouting' in this case will be the shouts of support at the convention when Barack Obama strides to the podium to give his speech accepting the presidential nomination of the Democratic Party.

Not only did Obama win big in North Carolina (15 percentage points, >230,000 popular votes), he closed the pre-election gap in Indiana, leaving Clinton a victory margin that fell short of expectations and far short of what was needed for her campaign to maintain viability (2 percentage points, <23,000 votes).

He should net a gain of approximately 13 or more pledged delegates after everything is said and done, offsetting the 12 that Clinton gained with her win in the Pennsylvania primary.

There are a few remaining primaries left (Oregon, Kentucky, Montana, Puerto Rico, South Dakota, West Virginia), but the math just isn't there for her. There are just 217 pledged delegates available in those states (DNCC delegate map here).

After tonight, Hillary Clinton needs 334 delegates to secure the nomination, Obama needs 189. (CNN Election Center here). The race will come down to superdelegates, and right now, they are trending toward Obama (right along with the popular vote).

The last best hope for the Clinton campaign is now reseating the Florida and Michigan delegations in a way that helps her; any neutral way of handling that situation hurts her at a time when she needs to make strong gains. The DNCC's Rules Committee is scheduled to meet on May 31 to discuss many delegate-related issues, including Florida and Michigan; however, any chicanery there will fracture the Democratic Party.

That probably won't happen - while the contenders may desire the nomination with every fiber of their beings, they aren't stupid.

Right now, the Obama/Clinton battle for the nomination has energized the Party in a way that it hasn't been for decades, but that could change in a heartbeat if one of the candidates goes overboard with insider games. Any result from that meeting that even hints of unfairness will totally undercut the gains made by the Party in outreach to new and independent voters, turning them off to the Democratic Party for years, perhaps even a generation.

And in four years, the grassroots of the Party will be certain to remember the campaign (and campaigners) whose blind devotion to personal ambition and cynical 'business as usual' politics condemned the country to four more years of a Bush-era government (aka - a McCain presidency).

AZ's Democratic Delegation Finalized

At Saturday's meeting of the Democratic State Committee, members selected PLEO (party leader/elected official) and At-Large delegates to this summer's national convention. Some delegates are pledged to Clinton, some to Obama.

The big news of the convention concerned the election of a new 1st Vice-Chair (and automatic superdelegate) of the ADP. Early expectations were that the slot would go to a Clinton supporter, but in a bit of a surprise, Charlene Fernandez, chair of the Yuma County Democratic Party, won the slot after announcing that she supports Sen. Barack Obama for the nomination.

There is an as-yet-unconfirmed rumor (from a state committee member) that one of the Clinton superdelegates may challenge the election of Fernandez. I'll look into this, but if anything comes of it, Tedski will probably have the scoop first (something about him being on the state committee, a brother on the state committee, a mom on the state committee, and so forth :)) ).

The final (pending any challenges) list, courtesy the website of the Arizona Democratic Party (superdelegate endorsement info courtesy PolitickerAZ) -

Uncommitted superdelegates -

Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords (AZ8)
Congressman Harry Mitchell (AZ5)
State Attorney General Terry Goddard
Chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party Don Bivens


Clinton delegates

Superdelegates -

Congressman Ed Pastor (AZ4)
Democratic National Committee member Janice C. Brunson
DNC member Joe Rios
DNC member Carolyn Warner

PLEO -

Arizona Sen. Amanda Aguirre
Salt River Pima Maricopa Indian Community President Diane Enos
Arizona Democratic Party Vice-Chairman Tony J. Gonzales
Navajo Nation President Joe Shirley

At-Large -

Arizona Sen. Ken Cheuvront
Fountain Hills Councilwoman Ginny Dickey
Adam Falk
Katie Hobbs
Michael Incorvaia
Amanda Simpson
Maricopa County Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox

At-Large Alternates -

DNC Member-elect and Arizona Democratic Party secretary Judy Kennedy
Arizona Rep. Robert Meza

District level delegates -

Jack Jackson, Jr.
Greg Kaighn
Dawn Knight
Nikki Basque (alternate)
Bree Boehlke
Debra Boehlke
Robert Boehlke
Matthew Miller (alternate)
Howard Bell
Jim Pederson
Lois Pfau
Lisa White (alternate)
Dana Kennedy
Jose Rivas
Angie Crouse
George Paterakis
Beverly Fox-Miller
Roman Ullman
Elizabeth Brown (alternate)
David Martinez
Gail Beeler
Elly Anderson
Chris Campas
JoJene E. Mills
Bruce Heurlin (alternate)


Obama Delegates

Superdelegates -

Governor Janet Napolitano
Congressman Raul Grijalva (AZ7)
ADP 1st Vice Chair Charlene Fernandez

PLEO -

Tohono O’odham Nation Chairman Ned J. Norris
Pima County Recorder F. Ann Rodriguez
Arizona Rep. Kyrsten Sinema

At-Large -

Magdalena Barajas
Sen. Dennis DeConcini
Ruben Gallego Arizona
Rep. David Schapira
Brandan Spradling

At-Large Alternate -

Phoenix Councilman Michael Johnson

District level delegates -

Christopher Clark-Dechene
Angela Lefevre
Shirley A. McAllister
Eddie Smith
Mark Manoil
Genevieve M. Vega
David Gass
Katharine Widland
Sean Bowie
Donna M. Gratehouse
Lauren Kuby
James J. Brodie (alternate)
John Chiazza
Kit Filbey
Paul Eckerstrom
Lisa Fernandez
John C. Adams
Patricia L. Canady


Congratulations to everyone, and hope to see you in Denver...

Short Attention Span Musing - Presidential Campaigns Edition

...One of the arguments that the Clinton campaign is using to try to persuade the Democratic Party's superdelegates that Senator Clinton is the better candidate is that she has won the primaries in important general election swing states and that if Senator Obama can't win in the primaries there, he won't win in the general election there either.

A bit of research shows that race for the 1992 Democratic presidential nomination was not as tight as this year's race (that one was pretty much over after Super Tuesday), but in spite of that, there were 11 primaries/caucuses that weren't won by Bill Clinton -

Iowa
Colorado
Delaware
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
Vermont
Arizona
Connecticut
South Dakota

Using the current logic, that must mean that he didn't win those states in the general election, right??

Not so right - he won 9 of those 11 states, the exceptions being Arizona and South Dakota.

Something tells me that isn't a statistic that the Clinton campaign is bringing up to anyone.

The simple fact is that a candidate's primary performance in a given state isn't much of an indicator of his/her general election performance in that same state.


...Other statistics that probably aren't getting brought up by the Clinton campaign is the likely negative down ballot effect of Clinton at the top of the ticket.

From the Kos diary entry (by Kos himself) on the subject of Obama and Clinton in head-to-head matchups against McCain (thanks for the heads-up go out to Lauren!) -

Obama even makes a difference in the "blowout" states, like McCain's home of Arizona.

Rasmussen. 4/15. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (No trend lines)

McCain (R) 57
Obama (D) 37

McCain (R) 60
Clinton (D) 32

"But", say the Clinton apologists, "what does it matter if we lose by 28 points or just 20? A loss is a loss!" It matters to the two House Democratic freshman running tough reelection campaigns this year (Mitchell in AZ-05 and Giffords in AZ-08). It matters to the Democrats running in our two targeted races in AZ-01 (Renzi's old seat) and AZ-03 (Shadegg's seat). The smaller the margin at the top of the ticket, the fewer ticket splitters they need to win their races.

There's also the legislative races to consider - with McCain topping the Republican ticket, it's going to be tough enough to maintain status quo in the lege, much less gain ground or even win a majority in one or both chambers of the lege. At least with Obama at the top of the Democratic ticket, a lot of the new voters that Obama has brought to the table will stay engaged; if he doesn't head the ticket, particularly if it appears that he lost the nomination unfairly, most of them will stay on the sidelines come the general election.


...John McCain, while pretending to take the high road, sent out an email after the Pennsylvania primary that tried to make a case that Hillary Clinton is the stronger Democratic candidate. Perhaps he hasn't played the race card here, but he did play the class and religion cards in playing up Sen. Clinton's strengths.

I think (I'm really not sure here) that his intended implication to his supporters is that he, McCain, will win with the particular demographic groups come November if Obama wins the Democratic nomination.

From the email, sent out under the name of campaign manager Rick Davis (which I can't link to, but will be happy to forward upon request) -

Subject: Strategy Memo: Democratic Primary Results

{snip}

Hillary Clinton cleaned up with Union households - like she did in Ohio.

{snip}

Clinton did better than Obama with lower income voters.

{snip}

Clinton won Catholic voters.

{snip}

Clinton won Jewish voters.

{snip}

etc.

I suppose McCain could win Union voters if they aren't paying attention to his actual voting record and his economic policies (I think Reagan did, though McCain is no Reagan), but lower income workers? That's asking a *lot* of people to ignore McCain's record.


...Perhaps the McCain campaign really *does* consider Senator Clinton to be the stronger opponent (really!), but the rest of his party isn't on board with that. They're attacking him all over the country.

From the New York Times -

G.O.P. Now Sees Obama as Liability for Ticket

Senator Barack Obama is starring in a growing number of campaign commercials, but the latest batch is being underwritten by Republicans.

In a sign that the racial, class and values issues simmering in the presidential campaign could spread into the larger political arena, Republican groups are turning recent bumps in Mr. Obama’s road — notably his comment that small-town Americans “cling” to guns and religion out of bitterness and a fiery speech by his former minister in which he condemned the United States — into attacks against Democrats down the ticket.

...On a much lighter note, check out the YouTube video of Senator Obama's post-results speech on Tuesday.

Note the three guys in the 2nd row, directly behind the Senator, and ask yourself -

How much did Abercrombie and Fitch pay them for their ability to get A&F logos such prominent placement?

I mean, there's no way that three people in the middle of a throng of campaign workers and supporters stood next to each other, in the one spot most likely to be constantly on camera, all while prominently wearing the same mall-trendy overpriced t-shirt brand, and it was all just coincidence?

Expect the Obama campaign's event staffers to scotch similar moves in the future.


Have a good weekend!

Locker Room Bulletin Board Material

In my previous post, I made the observation that we seem to have entered into a political version of pro football's silly season, a season marked by a significant quantity of meaningless media-produced fluff.

Another phenomenon of of the silly season is "locker room bulletin board material," a quote from a member of one team that the other team takes offense at and posts on its bulletin board as inspiration.

In the political arena, Randy Pullen, chair of the Arizona Republicans, provided a fine example on Thursday.

Courtesy PolitickerAZ.com -

Arizona Republican Party Chairman Randy Pullen said DNC Chairman Howard Dean was better off screaming wildly into microphones. “If Mr. Dean actually thinks either Senator Obama or Senator Clinton can defeat John McCain in his home state of Arizona, Mr. Dean isn’t just screaming, he’s dreaming.”

{snip}

"...this is possibly the dumbest thing to come out of the DNC since they first defended Senator Clinton’s accusations of a vast right wing conspiracy or tried to cast a favorable light on Senator Obama’s ability to skip vote after vote after vote..."

{snip}

"But if they could, they’d realize they have about as much hope of winning in Arizona in 2008 as a snowman does in Phoenix in August."

Thank you, Mr. Pullen.

I should note here that Mr. Pullen is correct on one thing - Sen. Obama *has* missed many votes since the start of the 110th Congress (January 2007) - 37%.

Of course what he doesn't mention is the fact that number pales in comparison to that of Mr. Pullen's hero, Sen. John McCain.


McCain has missed 56% of Senate votes over the same period.


Later...

Silly Season

Here we are, almost three weeks from the most recent presidential primaries and just over three weeks from the next one, and the MSM is completely and utterly bored.

They no longer have election day video to run or vote totals to analyze, so now they are down to make-work sorts of stories like speculations on possible tickets (Obama/Bloomberg? WTF?!?, McCain/Romney?, Paul/Gravel?, McCain/Rice?), speculations on whether one or another candidate should withdraw from the race (Hillary, latest Rasmussen Reports poll) or speculations on whether one gaffe or another from supporters has irretrievably injured a candidate (Obama/Wright, Clinton/Ferraro, McCain/Hagee, Clinton/Carville).

Note: to be fair, though, I've got to say that the comments by Ferraro and Hagee haven't had the legs that Rev. Wright's have; guess only white people are allowed to be loud-mouthed, bigoted loons.

And if they get tired of the aforementioned sorts of speculations, there is that old reliable - is the extended race for the Democratic nomination hurting the Democratic Party? (Variations on the theme from U.S. News and World Report, Voice of America, The Atlantic, ABC News, Boston Globe, etc.)

Then, of course, there are the filler pieces, like...

Chelsea Clinton getting a little testy when asked an inane question about Monica Lewinsky (like anything else was merited?); or...

...Whether an SNL skit provided incisive political commentary and insight (even SNL occasionally gets one right, doesn't it?)


The most analogous situation that I can think of is that two week period between the end of the NFL's conference playoffs and the Super Bowl, an annual occurrence renowned loads of inanity, smack-talk and fluff, but very little actual substance.

Alas, something tells me that we have three more weeks of the same.

Arizona's district level delegates

...Edit to add a candidate that I had forgotten. Thanks to commenter Tim for the reminder...

...Edited on 23 March to correct some mistakes I made in the bio of Dritan Zela, a candidate for delegate. My sincerest apologies to Mr. Zela for the errors. No disrespect was intended; I just took poor notes at the meeting.

End edit...

Thanks are due to everyone who ran for a delegate spot, and congratulations to everyone who won -

CD1
Clinton - Jack Jackson Jr., Greg Kaighn, Dawn Knight, Nikki Basque (Alt)
Obama - Christopher Clark-Dechene, Angela LaFevre

CD 2
Clinton - Bree Boehlke, Debra Boehlke, Robert Boehlke, Matthew Miller (Alt)
Obama - Shirley McAllister, Eddie Smith

CD 3
Clinton - Jim Pederson, Lois Pfau, Howard Bell, Lisa White (alt)
Obama - Mark Manoil, Genevieve Vega

CD 4
Clinton - Dana Kennedy, Jose Rivas
Obama - David Gass, Kate Widland

CD 5
Clinton - Angie Crouse (LD17 Vice-Chair - whoooo hoooo!!!), George Paterakis
Obama - Sean Bowie, Donna Gratehouse, Laren Kuby (LD17 Vice-Chair - whoooo hoooo!!!) , Jim Brodie (alt)

CD 6
Clinton - Beverly Fox-Miller, Roman Ulman, Elizabeth Brown (alt)
Obama - John Chiazza, Kit Filbey

CD 7
Clinton - David Martinez, Gail Beeler
Obama - Paul Eckerstrom, Lisa Fernandez

CD 8
Clinton - Chris Campas, Elly Anderson, JoJene Mills, Bruce Heurlin (alt)
Obama - John C. Adams, Patricia Canady


I attended the CD5 Obama caucus where we had a diverse slate of enthusiastic candidates to choose from. The candidates ranged from an Albanian immigrant/Fulbright Scholar in Mathematics (who gave a moving speech on what America, democracy, and Obama means to someone who was born in and lived under one of the world's most repressive regimes - Dritan Zela) to a lifelong Democratic activist ("I campaigned for FDR as a fetus" - Jerry Gettinger).

When the balloting was complete, the winning candidates were people who were both dedicated volunteers for Senator Obama and long-time Democratic activists who were exhilarated over their selections.

Other notes from the caucus -

...Under caucus rules, candidates did not have to be present to win, which is a great ideal. However, future delegate candidates should learn from the results in CD5 - "no show" meant "no votes."

...A number of candidates for office showed up to work the rooms for supporters.

- Joel Sinclaire, candidate for District 2 Maricopa County Supervisor, was there, speaking passionately about the need for fiscal responsibility and accountability on the part of the County and all of its agencies (yes, he was definitely referring to a certain Honduras-junketing sheriff's office and a certain no-bid-contracts-to-favored-outside-law-firms-issuing county attorney's office.) His campaign website is still under construction, but the email works. Contact him at Joel[at]electsinclaire.com if you want to help out.

- Stephanie Rimmer, candidate for LD8 House, also was there. She's a small business owner and longtime community activist who's making a second run in LD8. She's running as a Clean Elections candidate, so she needs $5s and signatures. Her website is here, and she can be contacted at stephanie[at]stephanierimmer.com.

- Ed Hermes, candidate for District 1 Maricopa County Supervisor was present, bringing his energetic campaign to unseat Fulton Brock. He needs help with contributions, both financial (no Clean Elections at the county level yet) and time. Contact him at ed[at]edhermes.com if you want to help.

- LD17 state representatives (and candidates for reelection!) David Schapira and Ed Ableser were also candidates for district level delgates for Obama, but they graciously withdrew because they have the opportunity to gain delegate slots as party leader/elected official (PLEO) delegates. That selection process is upcoming. They're still collecting Clean Elections 5s and signatures.

Later!

Sen. Barack Obama won the nomination Tuesday

Sen. Barack Obama gave a speech Tuesday that did something no other major political figure has ever done.

In the words of The Daily Show's Jon Stewart, he spoke to America on the subject of race, and he spoke to Americans "like they were adults."

I won't attempt to recap the entire speech here. I'm just not that skilled a writer.

After viewing the speech and reading the text (both available here), I was left with many thoughts -

"Wow."

"Wow."

"Wow."

"Wow."

"Wow."

"Wow."

"Wow."

"Wow."


OK, so it was one thought expressed many times. :))

Personally, I think that this speech just sewed up the nomination - every voter in the remaining primaries, as well as every super-delegate, will see the speech and see Barack Obama as the one candidate with both the ability to win election as President and the clarity of vision, emotional depth, and intellectual honesty to actually do some good once he has the job.

To be sure, there are those who will see that but still not vote for Obama, if only because they are totally wedded to insider politics.

Fortunately, they don't constitute a majority of the Democratic Party, or of the country as a whole.


BTW - While watching the speech, I *did* have one or two thoughts besides "wow"...

"Good God, I wish I wrote as well as his speechwriter," followed by "betcha Hillary Clinton wishes her campaign had a speechwriter that good."

Washington Post coverage (columnist Courtland Malloy) here.

To those readers of the Republican persuasion - It should be noted that while Sen. Obama presumably spent Monday polishing his speech, the Republican nominee spent the day polishing up the picks in his NCAA brackets.

Later!

In case you missed it...

...sort of like "Short Attention Span Musing" but covering stuff that happened this past weekend (aka - my workweek :) ) -


...OK, OK, I can appreciate that it's a scandal and all, and that Governor Spitzer (D-NY) should probably resign, but where's the fairness? Senator David Vitter still has his day job, doesn't he?

By now, everyone has heard about Eliot Spitzer of New York's patronage of a high-end prostitution ring, and how he was recorded on an FBI wiretap discussing and arranging an encounter.

Given Governor Spitzer's high profile and the salacious nature of the allegations, this was sure to be big news.

Given the fact that the news broke on a very slow news day (more people dying in places like Pakistan and Iraq? Yawwwnn...), the story was sure to be HUGE news, and justifiably so.

I've got to ask one question, however.

Lost in all of the calls for Spitzer's resignation and threats to impeach him (mostly from the GOP)is the ongoing silence regarding Sen. David Vitter's involvement with a D.C. madam.

U.S. Rep. Peter King weighed in on Spitzer's situation (courtesy the WaPo article linked about -

"He's compromised himself and the entire state," he said. "So there's no way that he can stay on. And I think it's only a matter of time before he resigns, and I would say the sooner the better for him and for the state."

He could have uttered *exactly* the same sentiments regarding Vitter, but he hasn't, and something tells me that in their glee over Spitzer's stepping on his zipper, the rest of the GOP won't either.


...In a sign that November of 2008 may be far worse for Congressional Republicans than November of 2006, Democrat Bill Foster defeated Republican Jim Oberweis in a special election held to fill former Speaker Dennis Hastert's seat. The seat was vacant after Hastert resigned late last year.

The district was solidly Republican - Hastert had held the seat for 21 years and Bush won the district in 2004 with 55% of the vote.

The area had been represented by a Republican since at least 1959.

Today, Foster was sworn it, and the 14th is now represented by a Democrat.

The force of the wave of change flowing over electoral politics that is washing Reps out of office all over the country may be mitigated here in Arizona by John McCain's presence at the top of the November ballot.

However, before AZ Republicans (specifically John Shadegg and downballot legislative candidates) start breathing a little easier, they might want to consider the fact that Democratic and Independent voters have been energized by both Senators Obama and Clinton in a way that hasn't been seen since the 1960s.

It's going to be an interesting fall, both nationally and here in Arizona.


...Is "diarrhea of the mouth" covered under the Congressional health plan?

From AP via Yahoo! News -

An Iowa Republican congressman on Monday defended his prediction that terrorists would celebrate if Democrat Barack Obama were elected president, despite a rebuke from aides to John McCain, the GOP's apparent presidential nominee.

"(Obama will) certainly be viewed as a savior for them," Rep. Steve King told The Associated Press. "That's why you will see them supporting him, encouraging him."

Apparently the Republicans are using "fear and smear" tactics in trying to keep the White House, as well as regain control of Congress.

To be fair to Congressman King, his medical condition is one of the "chronic" variety not the "sudden onset" variety, as illustrated by this post. At this point, it seems likely that he just can't help himself, kind of like an inveterate alcoholic.


In pop culture news...

...What's next? Are they going to elect Joe Montana to the Baseball Hall of Fame?

From CBSNews.com -

Madonna, pop music's quick-change artist, was inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Monday and paid tribute to people who encouraged her and even critics who panned her for helping drive her career.

I'm not trying to insult Madonna - she's a great entertainer and a talented and skilled businesswoman, but she's as much a "rock-and-roll great" as Joe Montana is a "baseball great."

She's not a rock and roll artist; she doesn't serve as an inspiration for rockers (Looking for inspiration? See "Blues, The.")

When

Just venting... :)


...Always knew that "looks" and "personality" weren't the only reasons that "Mary Ann" would inevitably win the great "Ginger or Mary Ann" debates - "cool" counts, too. :)

From AP -

DRIGGS, Idaho (AP) — Dawn Wells, who played Mary Ann on "Gilligan's Island," is serving six months' unsupervised probation after allegedly being caught with marijuana in her car.

Rumors that the initial plea offer from the prosecution included community service and a three hour tour could not be confirmed. :))

Later!

Pot, Meet Kettle

What are they going to do in the general? Refer to John McCain as "the boogeyman"??


Generally, I write this type of post calling out some Republicans on their more hypocritical mutterings; it pains me to now have to write it about a Democratic campaign.

Earlier today, Samantha Power, an unpaid foreign policy advisor to the Obama campaign, resigned from her position because of the uproar over a comment that she made.

She referred to Hillary Clinton as a 'monster' in this interview published in a Scottish newspaper.

The comment that caused the furor -

"We f***** up in Ohio," she admitted. "In Ohio, they are obsessed and Hillary is going to town on it, because she knows Ohio's the only place they can win.

"She is a monster, too – that is off the record – she is stooping to anything," Ms Power said, hastily trying to withdraw her remark.

There's no question that the comment *was* inappropriate, and the resignation an appropriate punishment/corrective action.

However, the Clinton spokesman leading the attack on Obama for Powers' comment, Howard Wolfson, had earlier in the week equated Senator Obama to former independent prosecutor Kenneth Starr.

Starr was the partisan witch-hunter/attack dog that the Republicans set on the Clintons during the 1990s. In short, he truly *was* a monster, rampaging across the fields of democracy, intent on only achieving his goal of smearing the Clintons without regard to the relevance or even truthfulness of his accusations.

Senator Clinton's response was to rationalize, not apologize.

From the Washington Post -

Asked to compare Power's calling her a monster with her adviser saying Obama was acting like Ken Starr, Clinton said "One is an ad hominem attack and one is a historical reference."

To both campaigns - the Republican campaign is over, and all attention will be on you. *Nothing* is going to slip by unnoticed, especially if you are going to call out your opponent over every single word uttered by a minor staffer.

Expect to be held to the same standard.

Arizona earns another low rating when it comes to protecting children

This time, it's the state's Congressional delegation that has let children down.

The Children's Defense Fund Action Council has released its 2007 Congressional scorecard. The scoring was based on 10 key votes each in the House and Senate (the list of votes was slightly different for each chamber.)

Arizona's delegation ended up tied for 44th with Louisiana's.

Hey - at least we beat Nebraska, South Carolina, Idaho, Oklahoma, and Wyoming.

On the other hand, Georgia, Texas and Mississippi beat us, and that's not exactly something to brag about.

By comparison, my old home state of Massachusetts ranked 3rd, with an average score of 97%; the only negative marks were due to absences, not bad votes.


As could be expected, the Arizona delegation split along party lines -

In the House, Democrats Ed Pastor and Raul Grijalva each scored 100%, Gabrielle Giffords 80%, and Harry Mitchell 60%.

On the Republican side, Rick Renzi scored 60%, Trent Franks and John Shadegg scored 10%, and the ever-reliable Jeff Flake earned a big ol' goose egg (he's like Mikey from the Life cereal commercial - he hates *everything.*)

It seems that John Shadegg's 'expertise' on health care doesn't extend to healthy children, only healthy corporate bottom lines. As for Trent Franks, apparently his concern for children stops once they are born.

As for Renzi's 60%, well, you knew that there had to be a real reason that a Republican U.S. Attorney pursued an indictment of a Republican Congressman - I mean, there was no way a Bush appointee would go after a Republican for simple extortion and fraud, right?

:))

And as for Harry Mitchell's 60%, I supposed he can take heart in the high-wattage company he's keeping - Nancy Pelosi was also at 60%, Joe Biden was at 50%, Barack Obama 60%, Hillary Clinton 70%.

Over in the Senate, Jon Kyl scored at 30% and John McCain earned a 10%.

Of course, given that McCain missed 8 of the 10 key votes, maybe his grade should be 'Incomplete.' However, according to the 2006 Scorecard, he made all of the 10 key votes that year, and scored a resounding

10%.

Come November, that's something that parents all over the state might want to think about before they cast a 'favorite son' vote in the general election.

Later!

Short Attention Span Musing

...In the most telling indicator of where the Republicans' heads are at, during yesterday's hubbub surrounding the NY Times' revelations that John McCain had an affair with a lobbyist and gave preferential treatment to her clients, Republican pundits seem to be most concerned with the "marital infidelity" allegation, not the "blatant corruption" allegation.

From Bay Buchanan, campaign advisor to presidential candidate Mitt Romney (R-WD) and sister of Pat Buchanan, speaking on CNN's Anderson Cooper 360 -

But going to the point that David [Gergen, a CNN political analyst] raised, I will tell you there is a problem. This is not the Democratic Party. This is the party of values. And we assume that our candidates have been loyal to their families. We assume that. We don't ask them that question.

But, when the issue is raised, when somebody suggests you haven't been loyal to your wife and your family, then we expect them to be outraged, to be out there saying, for one thing, "I want you to know, without question, I have always been loyal to my wife and my children. And that I want to be understood clearly."

And, so far, I think John McCain has not made that strong enough. He is going to have to make that point very, very public, if he wishes to galvanize Republicans.

Umm, folks, let's be clear - any issues relating to marital fidelity are issues to be resolved between John and Cindy McCain, and no one else.

However, if the allegations of preferential treatment for lobbyists are true, the story could (and should!) really play havoc with the political ambitions of someone who has positioned himself as an icon of ethical propriety in D.C...

On another note, the McCain campaign has derided the Times' story as a "smear campaign" but the timing of the story actually benefits McCain - it has come out too late in the election cycle to influence the primaries and early enough that the story will fade and have no influence on the general election.

McCain and his supports may not like the story, but the timing is almost a personal favor to him.

The full NY Times' story here.


...A few short weeks ago, the inevitability of Hillary Clinton's nomination seemed unquestionable; today, Barack Obama seems to be the 'inevitable' one, with his jump into the fundraising lead and winning 10 states' primaries/caucuses in a row.

It's not about who receives the most donations or who wins the most states; it's about who wins the majority of delegates.

The Democrats' practice of awarding delegates on a proportional basis make it unlikely that, short of a serious blowout in Texas or Ohio, either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton will pull away.

Having said all that, Clinton needs big wins in Texas and Ohio, and needs them far more than Obama. She's starting to hemorrhage superdelegates; another big win for Obama would only inspire more defections.

Expect both campaigns to continue operating at full throttle through March 4 and on to the convention...


...In a move that is sure to surprise no one, the New Times has made the preliminary moves to a lawsuit against Maricopa County and the various actors (Joe Arpaio, Andrew Thomas, Dennis Wilenchik) in October's arrests of two New Times' founders for publishing stories critical of Arpaio and Thomas.

A lawsuit is necessary and deserved, but since the taxpayers of Maricopa County are the ones who will pick up the tab for any settlement/jury award, they'll keep doing what they want to do to stifle dissent.

The best way to teach Arpaio and Thomas that their desperate tinpot despot tactics are wrong is to vote for Dan Saban for Sheriff and Gerald Richard (or possibly Tim Nelson) for County Attorney.

Later!

Sunday Morning Crappie

The idea for this was blatantly, shamelessly, and gratefully stolen from Desert Beacon's "Sunday Deck Bass" series...thanks DB!

This intermittent series will highlight those politicos, mostly but not exclusively Arizona-based, who flip-flop on significant issues, much like a fish does after being reeled into the bottom of the boat.

I've wanted to do something like this for a while and was searching for a title. Not being schooled in the finer points of fishing in Arizona, I asked a coworker about which species of fish was Arizona known for.

Her first choice, bass, was already taken by DB.

Her second choice was crappie.

It was obvious that the gods of snarkiness were smiling upon me. :))

Oh, for those of you whose minds are in the toilet, she pronounced the word "craw-pee."

Anyway, on to this week's award for sometimes convenient, frequently creative, and always astounding flip-flopping.

3rd Place goes to Harold Ickes, senior adviser to the Clinton for President campaign. A few months ago, he supported the DNC's move to strip Florida and Michigan of its delegates because those states decided to hold their primaries before February 5.

However, now that his candidate is in the fight of her political life and needs every delegate she can lay her hands on, he wants the DNC to seat the delegates from those states.

His stated reason for this is pure - he doesn't want to see the voters in those states "disenfranchised."

Of course, the fact that his candidate won the primaries in both states (she was the only major candidate even on the ballot in Michigan) has nothing to do with it.

Story: AP via Yahoo! News.

2nd Place goes to Arizona Congressman John Shadegg (R-AZ3) for first announcing his retirement from Congress (citing family reasons) before reconsidering his decision (citing a letter from his Republican colleagues in the House.)

He may be the #2 Crappie, but he's the #1 tease - State Sens. Pamela Gorman and Jim Waring were both considering runs at the CD3 seat, but now their announcements are on hold, waiting for Shadegg to make a final decision.

Well, "final" until he changes it.

Both Ickes and Shadegg made strong runs at this week's award, but the winner, in a near walk-over, is Arizona Senator and Republican presidential front-runner John McCain.

McCain, a former prisoner of war, victim of torture and long-time opponent of torture voted this week against banning the torture technique of waterboarding.

I'm torn between closing this with "Torture - McCain was against it before he was for it" and "John McCain on torture: 'bad when it's applied to me; good when it's applied to the rest of you saps.' "

Whatthehell - why not use both?

Later!