Primary Day is here: prediction time

Greg at Espresso Pundit went all in with his predictions, and Donna at Democratic Diva steadfastly and with dignity declined to make any predictions to avoid undermining/offending the ultimate winners in the Democratic primaries.

While I am not the "pundit" that Patterson is, neither am I as dignified as Donna (hey, I'm a Red Sox fan, and *you* try shouting "Yankees Suck!!" while maintaining proper decorum :) ).  As such, I'm going to make my own predictions.

Disclaimer:  My predictions are not an indication of a preference in Democratic primary races; in fact, I'll be predicting a winner who is other than the candidate I voted for in a couple of the races.  In addition, my predictions in Republican races are based on very distant observations, not on any knowledge of how R primary voters think.

In other words, no wagering allowed on any of this.  :)


On to the fearless predictions...

R Senate - McCain over Hayworth easily.  It may not be the blowout that it should be, but it won't be that close.

D Senate - This one is tough.  I'll go with Parraz over Glassman in a very close race.  The info about Glassman's campaign, however, may have come out too late to affect the outcome since early ballots were sent out, and returned, weeks before the info came to light.

R CD5 - Schweikert.  Far from a perfect candidate but he's run a solid primary campaign.  I think the big question is if Ward will hold on to second.  Look for Bitter Smith or Salvino to possibly sneak into the silver medal position.

R Maricopa County Attorney - Should be Romley in a cakewalk, but if Patterson is correct about this being a low turnout election (and I think he is), Montgomery could make it interesting.

R CD3 - Got no clue, other than it won't be Quayle.  Even R primary voters want more substance in a candidate.

R AG - Horne in a close one.  Thomas is just too damaged by his professional and ethical missteps.

D AG - Just a "feeling", but Rotellini seems to have the support of most of the Ds that I know.  Having said that, any of the three Ds running (Rotellini, Lujan, Rabago) would make a better AG than either Horne or Thomas.  (Of course, so would I, and my legal experience consists of serving as a juror in a Scottsdale shoplifting case...but I digress.  :) )

R Superintendent of Public Instruction - Huppenthal.  In any other state he'd have been relegated to the political scrap heap years ago, but in AZ, he's a Republican hero.  With the name recognition to go with it among R primary voters.

D Superintendent of Public Instruction - No clue, not even a "feeling".  Both Kotterman and Williams are dedicated educators and well-qualified for the position.  I just have no idea who is going to win the D nod.

D Secretary of State - Wercinski, though with Deschene's outside-of-Maricopa County contacts, he could make this one a barn burner.

R CD1, CD8, Treasurer - Don't know, don't care.  Kirkpatrick, Giffords, and Cherny will be the best choices in November, no matter who the Rs nominate in August.

R Governor (just for kicks) - Brewer.  Includimg me, there are maybe 10 people in AZ who realize that Jette is an intelligent, thoughtful candidate.  Everybody else's loss.  I wouldn't vote for him, but AZ needs more candidates like him who are less chained to an absolutist ideology and more concerned with finding real-world solutions to real-world problems.

CQPolitics has coverage here; FiveThirtyEight.com coverage here.

Privatization of Scottsdale city services on deck

The City has posted on its website the agendas for next week's meetings of the Scottsdale City Council, and the Council will be jumping right into controversy upon its return from its summer break.

At the tail end of the agenda for next Monday's meeting is an item titled "Alternative Service Delivery Options for Residential Solid Waste Collection."  In other words, "privatizing trash pick up in Scottsdale."

The item is an 18 page analysis of the City's current solid waste collection system (the City does it all) and the possible alternatives -  outside vendors bid on the contract, outside vendors and City staff bid on the contract, and the City completely exits the waste collection business, leaving residents totally on their own.  It seems clear from the analysis the the City staffers preparing the it that they don't think this is a good idea (from page 2 of the .pdf -

"The analysis indicates that changing the means of delivering residential solid waste services would not be likely to result in an overall cost reduction."

However, the City Council majority group (Lane, Nelssen, Littlefield, and Borowsky) may have a different opinion.

Of course, there another line in the analysis that the Council will probably keep in mind when casting their votes on the matter.  Also from page 2 of the .pdf -

"There has been no community involvement in the preparation of this study."

Like Monday's agenda, the last item on Tuesday's agenda concerns privatization of a City operation.

That item is titled "Alternative Service Delivery Options for Fleet Parts Management."

Any organization as large as the City of Scottsdale has a large number of motor vehicles in use at any given time that regularly need maintenance.  For the sake of efficiency, they keep a supply of auto parts on hand.

Like the previous item relating to solid waste service privatization, there has been no community involvement with this, but it is less relevant - fleet parts management has no direct impact on private citizens.

Also like the previous item, no significant cost savings are anticipated, at least in part because any savings that would be realized would go to "enterprise" funded operations like Solid Waste and Water Resources (enterprise funded operations are funded primarily by fees, not the City's General Fund).

Also on tap for Tuesday:  a special meeting with an executive session for the purposes of "evaluating" the City Auditor (Sharron Walker) and City Clerk (Carolyn Jagger).  It's a little outside the usual period for employee evaluations - normally they're done right around the end of fiscal years.  I may be reading too much into this one, but it's worth keeping an eye on - City Clerk Jagger is the one long-time City Charter Officer who hasn't been forced out/fired since Jim Lane ascended to the Mayor's office.

Later...

Central Arizona Project Board of Directors* - 15 candidates, 5 seats available

* = On the ballot, the CAP Board will be listed as the "Central Arizona Water Conservation District."

In a year when many school board races aren't races at all because they have just enough candidates to fill the open spots on the boards (and many other entities, like local fire boards, don't have enough candidates to even fill the open seats; full candidate listing here), the CAWCD has 15 candidates for 5 seats, or three candidates for every single opening.

For a position that is extremely low-profile and unpaid, that is a lot of interest.

There are 15 members of the board, serving six year terms, staggered in such a way that five seats are up every two years.  Ten members are from Maricopa County and five are from the other counties that receive water through the Central Arizona Project.  2010 is a "Maricopa County" year.

It's probably too early for a full post listing each candidate's background and qualifications, but here is a brief listing of each candidate (Shaun McKinnon of the Arizona Republic also has a brief rundown here) -

Note: campaign websites were included when I could easily find them, but considering that most of the candidates are running as "$500 Threshold Exemption" candidates, the dearth of campaign websites isn't surprising.

Tim Bray of Scottsdale - an incumbent with a background in real estate

TC Bundy of Glendale, a business "consultant" (in quotes because that is such an amorphous word that it is meaningless)

Frank Fairbanks of Phoenix, the now-retired longtime Phoenix City Manager

Joseph Hobbs of Avondale, a telephone company employee/consultant and former candidate for Arizona Corporation Commission, running on an anti-government platform.

Jim Holway of Phoenix, campaign website here.  Long experience in water resources management and urban planning.

Raymond Johnson of Glendale, lousy name for a Google search.  He's an insurance broker, according to his campaign paperwork.

Ray Jones of Phoenix, a self-employed "consultant".  I think he is a professional engineer working in the area of water resources, but I'm not sure.  He used to be the president of Arizona American Water (personal note: given the mess that AZAmWater has created in Scottsdale and elsewhere in this state, his ties to that company alone disqualify him from receiving my vote.)

Arif Kazmi of Chandler, campaign website here.  A career professional engineer with wide experience in water resources and water projects.

Karl Kohlhoff of Gilbert, a water consultant and member of the Planning Commission for the Town of Gilbert.

Mark Lewis of Scottsdale, an incumbent.  He lists his occupation as Executive Director of the Water Resources Institute LLC, but while I can find evidence of a company by that name lobbying the legislature, I cannot find any records with the ACC or Secretary of State indicating that the organization was established in Arizona.

Cynthia Moulton of Phoenix.  She's retired (from what I do not know) and is a Tea Partier.

Brian Munson of Scottsdale, a manager for ASARCO, a mining company with a long and "colorful" history in the southwestern U.S.

John Rosado of Peoria, campaign website here, a retiree who is also running for the Peoria Unified School District board.  Running on an anti-enviroment/education platform (depending on the office he is talking about).

Sid Wilson of Phoenix, the former General Manager of CAWCD.

Andy Yates of Scottsdale, a small business owner.  Has the resume of a Republican operative/future candidate paying his dues.  I'm guessing here, but he seems to intend this as just a stepping-stone.


Since water is the single most important issue impacting Arizona's future (no matter what the Russell Pearces and Jan Brewers of the state say about stopping immigrants), this race merits close attention.

Later...

Congressman Harry Mitchell - Renewing Arizona's Economy

From an email from Congressman Harry Mitchell -

Dear [cpmaz]

Since coming to Congress, I have been working to improve our nation’s energy policy by making investments in clean, green American-made energy, such as solar and wind power. These investments will not only help meet our energy needs, but also be a major and sustainable boost to Arizona’s economy.


In 2008, I successfully fought to extend the 30-percent solar investment tax credit to help our state’s solar industry grow and create jobs. With the help of solar tax credits and grants, Arizona Public Service and Abengoa Solar are developing the world's largest solar energy plant outside Gila Bend. The Solana solar generating station will create an estimated 1,500 jobs and provide clean, emission-free energy for 70,000 homes. Solana is expected to stimulate an estimated $1 billion in local economic development.

I believe that energy policies must shift our focus away from foreign petroleum imports and dirty fuels like coal, towards clean, domestically abundant alternative energies. That’s why last year, I opposed the “cap and trade” bill, the American Clean Energy and Security Act, because instead of investing in carbon-neutral energies like solar, the measure would have doubled down America’s reliance on coal. I believe this was a step backward at a time when it is so vitally important for us to move forward. I was also concerned about a provision that would give the federal government power to overrule Arizona’s decisions about where we choose to place our power lines.

Nevertheless, I believe that we still need to work to find clean, alternative domestic sources of energy. I supported the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act because, in part, it makes significant investments in our nation's alternative energy infrastructure through both tax incentives and competitive grants. This investment will create more than a half a million green jobs dedicated toward moving America forward. Since coming to Congress, I have been working to improve our nation’s energy policy, by making investments in clean, green American-made energy, such as solar and wind power. These investments will not only help meet our energy needs, but also be an economic boon to our Arizona economy.

I have also supported increased energy efficiency. In 2007, I backed the first increase in fuel efficiency standards in more than a generation, raising federal standards to 35 mpg. I also supported extending personal tax credits to individuals for solar panels on their homes as well as expanded tax credits for people who buy hybrid cars.

As always, I look forward to being able to provide you with regular updates and continue our dialogue in support of clean, renewable energy in the future.

Sincerely,

Harry

Later...

AZ employment figures stagnant; Brewer silent.

On AZ's economic situation, as with the (formerly) escaped murderers, Brewer continues her silence, perhaps hoping the problem will go away before she has to demonstrate anything resembling real leadership...or even a simple awareness of the problems facing the average Arizona family.

From the Yuma Sun -

The troubled economy continues to take its toll on jobs in Yuma County, as seen in the area's 22.8 percent unemployment rate for July released Thursday by the Arizona Department of Commerce.



That compares to 22.6 percent in June and 20.6 percent in July 2009.


Arizona's unemployment rate remained flat at 9.6 percent for the third consecutive month, according to the Department of Commerce's monthly nonfarm seasonally adjusted unemployment report. Since February, the state's rate has fluctuated only a tenth of a percentage point.


Nationally, the rate remained 9.5 percent.

On her websites...

- The official Governor's website doesn't mention the news at all.

- Her campaign website doesn't mention the current news either.  In fact, in her list of issues that she considers most important to her campaign, "jobs" is eighth on the list behind things like restricting a woman's access to legal abortions, shrinking the size of government, reducing or eliminating regulations that corporations have to follow, and, of course, demonizing those "darn immigrants."

In fact, the only things lower on her list of priorities are fighting against healthcare reform and protecting education and public safety - like anyone who hasn't watched her in action for the last 18+ months hasn't already figured out that students, teachers, cops and firefighters are last on her priority list (but hey, they are first on her s#!t "do not like" list.)

In short, her list of "priorities" is a shout out to her corporate supporters and to the nativist/misogynist wings of the GOP.


Contrast this with Terry Goddard, the Democratic candidate for Governor.


Number one on his list of priorities is jobs.  Full plan here.   Press release on Goddard's economic recovery plan here.

Number two on the list is education.  Full plan here.


What else is on the list?

Issues that face and affect all Arizonans.


What isn't on the list?

Anything designed to troll for corporate campaign contributions or to appeal to the basest, most extreme factions of the political base.


Maybe the first step in doing a job, any job, well is to *want* to do the job well.

Only one of Arizona's candidates for Governor wants to do the job well, or even cares to do it well.

Vote for Terry Goddard in November.

Last escapee and accomplice recaptured

From the Arizona Republic -

After nearly three weeks on the run, Arizona fugitives John McCluskey and Casslyn Welch were caught in Apache County on Thursday evening.

The fugitive couple were caught at a campground near Sunrise Ski Resort at about 7 p.m.

With state, local and federal law-enforcement agencies around the country participating in the manhunt, it was the work of a keen-eyed forest ranger that did the couple in.

The ranger, whom authorities did not immediately identify, saw a car parked about 700 yards off a highway in the Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests near the ski resort.

{snip}

After Thursday's sighting, the U.S. Forest Service contacted the U.S. marshals command post in Phoenix, which coordinated the nationwide manhunt. Through the make and model of the car and the origin of the stolen license plate, investigators determined the couple in the car might be McCluskey and Welch.

The Apache County Sheriff's Office sent a tactical-response team and arrested the couple.

 We should all be grateful that McCluskey and Welch were captured before they could add to their body count, and should be especially grateful to the conscientious U.S. Forest Service ranger, U.S. Marshals, and the deputies/officers from the Apache County Sheriff's Office who were instrumental in the safe capture of the murderous escapee (and his accomplice) from one of Arizona's privately-run prisons.

From an emailed statement from Terry Goddard, Arizona's Attorney General and a candidate for Governor -

"We are fortunate McCluskey and Welch were apprehended without further loss of life.

This escape shined a bright light on inadequate prison security, on improper assignment of convicted murders to facilities not meant for such dangerous criminals, and Arizona's over-reliance on private, for-profit prisons. I called on the governor to take several immediate steps to prevent future escapes. She has ignored them and done little in response.

"Unless the Brewer Administration does more to tighten security and to carefully re-examine the operations of Arizona's private prisons, we should not be surprised if other violent convicts make their escape."

As of this writing, Jan Brewer, neither in her position as Governor nor in her position as candidate for Governor, has published a statement on the successful capture of the escapee from a private prison by dedicated public employees.

Last U.S. combat brigades out of Iraq

From the Christian Science Monitor -

The last US combat brigade crossed into Kuwait Thursday morning after a series of night maneuvers through the desert, marking a new chapter in the seven-year-conflict in which the struggle for political power has replaced direct combat.

More than 1,200 infantrymen and other soldiers moved out by road in 360 armored vehicles over the past five days in night-time operations kept under wraps until the last troops crossed the border. Fighter jets accompanied them along a route cleared of bombs and landmines. More than 2,000 of the 4th Stryker Brigade Combat Team soldiers had already flown out of the country.

The road march by the 4th Stryker Brigade Combat Team complies with President Obama’s Sept. 1 deadline for all combat brigades to be out of Iraq, fulfilling a major campaign promise.


They leave behind 50,000 other US troops in an unsettled Iraq still struggling to form a government, and many Iraqis fear that the prospect of US troops withdrawing entirely next year along with the political chaos could reactivate fighting here.

While it is encouraging to see the official "combat" troops exiting Iraq, the remaining troops aren't exactly "non-combat" troops.  Their offical classification might be as "trainers" or some such euphemism, many will still be fighting, and possibly dying, in George W. Bush's war of false pretenses.

While rejoicing over the developments in Iraq is understandable, it should be tempered with the knowledge that American troops, our friends, neighbors, fathers, sons, mothers, daughters, brothers and sisters, will still be fighting, and possibly dying, in a hellhole halfway around the world.

Remember with gratitude those who have already sacrificed their lives or their health in service to the country, be happy for those who have made it home, and pray that those who are still serving over there (and not just in Iraq) also make it home.

Soon.

Brewer's rationalization for privatizing prisons debunked by national media

Jan and her clan will, of course, try to spin/deny it, but since one of the sources for the article is a report prepared by the Arizona Department of Corrections more than a year into her stay on the 9th Floor...

From Fortune/CNN -

What's costlier than a government run prison? A private one

Early this month, three convicted murderers escaped from a prison in Kingman, a small town along Route 66 in northwest Arizona. According to reports, the inmates had broken free from the facility by using a pair of wire cutters. They'd escaped from a medium-security facility operated by Utah-based Management & Training Corp, a private corrections company.


The incident set off a political furor, not over the fact that the three violent criminals were being held in a medium-security prison, but over the security of the facility itself, and, ultimately, over Arizona's widespread use of private correctional facilities.

Other highlights from the article -

Arizona Attorney General Goddard says that his state Department of Corrections has nearly zero oversight over the prisons that house out-of-state inmates in his state.


"They don't have to show proof of financial responsibility, they don't have to comply with Arizona prison construction standards, they don't have to report disruptions. . .and both the training and staffing is up to the private operator," Goddard says. "There were a couple of private prisons that went on lockdown and refused to allow the Department of Corrections to come in."

{snip}

Despite claims from companies like CCA, the jury seems to be out on whether private prisons end up saving governments money. An audit by the accounting firm MAXIMUS conducted for Arizona compared the cost of public and private corrections facilities in 2007 and found that, on average, private facilities ended up saving the state $5.49 per inmate per day.


But more recently, an internal Arizona Department of Corrections report released in February 2010, found that, in 2009, those savings narrowed to around $2.75 per inmate per day, and in certain instances, private facilities were found to cost even more per day than public ones.

The ADC report mentioned in the article can be found here; reports for prior years can be found on this page.

More on the Brewer Administration's ties to private prison companies here (KTAR.com) and here (Rachel Maddow via Crooks and Liars.com)

Fox News makes it official - they're here to help the Republican Party

No, it's not exactly shocking news to anyone who has followed the mainstream media for the last couple of decades, but up until now, they had tried to maintain at least the pretense of being "fair and balanced."

From the Washington Post -

Rupert Murdoch, who has never been shy about making his political views known, has voted with his sizable checkbook.

Murdoch's News Corp. has made a $1 million donation to the Republican Governors Association, triggering swift criticism from Democrats that a contribution of that magnitude casts a shadow on his media properties, particularly Fox News.

"For a media company -- particularly one whose slogan is 'fair and balanced' -- to be injecting themselves into the outcome of races is stunning," Nathan Daschle, executive director of the Democratic Governors Association, said Tuesday.

The RGA's financial filing with the IRS shows the contribution (page 54). (link courtesy Politico's coverage)

OpenSecrets.org coverage here.

Fox News' parent company also owns the New York Post and the Wall Street Journal, hardly bastions of jounalistic neutrality.  Now that News Corp is officially out of the partisan closet, don't expect any improvement on that front.

It's one thing for an MSM organization to have a theme in its commentary shows (MSNBC definitely leans left, Fox News definitely leans right, and CNN is pretty much neutral) because those are supposed to have an opinion, but when an MSM organization openly chooses a side, with both its financial resources and by using its credibility as a news organization to push false stories to inflict political damage on those they view as opponents, they lose all credibility as a news organization.

While Fox News had no credibility with me personally, they still had the support of some of the other members of the MSM (witness their promotion to the front row at in the White House press briefing room).

The next few days and weeks will show whether or not this direct financial support of a partisan organization will undermine that support.

Later...

Goddard challenges Brewer to series of debates...

...but Brewer says "Nope.  Only the one that I am legally obligated to attend."*

*That's not a real quote, but it's the real meaning of the press release that I'll quote later in this post...

Earlier today, Terry Goddard, Arizona's Attorney General and Democratic candidate for Governor, challenged unelected incumbent Jan Brewer to a series of debates. 

From his letter to the Brewer campaign  (with minor adjustments to the format for readability here) -

The people of Arizona deserve the opportunity to see for themselves which candidate has the vision and experience to lead Arizona back to prosperity.

I propose the following topics and host communities. Of course, I will work with your schedule to maximize this important opportunity for Arizona:

Balancing Arizona’s Budget - Tucson

Public Safety and Protecting Arizona - Kingman

Immigration and Securing Arizona’s Border - Sierra Vista

Jobs for Arizona - Yuma

Creating a World Class System for Education in AZ - Phoenix

Tourism, Energy, the Environment and Reviving Rural AZ - Flagstaff

Her response, from a emailed press release -

"Terry Goddard is Obama's Arizona apostle.

"Governor Brewer will participate in the televised debate sponsored by the Clean Elections Commission on September 1st. The scheduling of any possible future debates will be revisited after that time. In the meantime, we anticipate that Mr. Goddard will use his campaign funds to try to redefine 30-year record of failure. We look forward to seeing his TV commercials in the weeks to come."

Yeah, I'm biased, but one of the things that struck me is that the Brewer campaign doesn't understand the difference between "challenging" (which is what Goddard did , respectfully [read the linked letter]) and "insulting" (the Brewer response.)

I didn't actually expect her to go for six debates, especially the one in Kingman, location of the privately-operated prison that housed the recently-escaped murderers, but to be so openly contemptuous of her adversary and the people of Arizona?  I most definitely did not expect that.

Oh, and in case someone thinks that Brewer was being nice when she deigned to agree to the Clean Elections forum (full schedule here), you should remember that she *has* to appear at that one.  It's a requirement for those candidates who accept Clean Elections funding.

The "No S#!t Sherlock" Headline Of The Day

And while I am highlighting something from the Arizona Republic, I'm not criticizing them - some days, I think that it takes complete bluntness to get the message through.

From the Rep -

Valley parents upset by larger class sizes due to budgets

The effects of the state's budget crisis are showing up inside packed classrooms in Scottsdale and Fountain Hills.

As school started Aug. 9, the two districts had larger class sizes in every grade, including kindergarten classes of 27 to 30 children.

Some Scottsdale parents became alarmed the week before school started, meeting with district administrators to express their concerns. In Fountain Hills, a group of parents addressed the governing board at its meeting last week.

OK, I'm going to stereotype a little here, but given that the "upset parents" in the article are from Scottsdale and Fountain Hills, they are likely to be Republicans or Republican-leaning independents*, and have wholly embraced the R ideology of "cut MY taxes no matter what the cost!  Everybody knows that teachers and people on state assistance are just leeches!"

Now that they find out that the "cost" of the tax cuts, the costs that they didn't worry about, actually impacts them, they get upset.

Welcome to the real world. 


You get what you pay for, and if you  pay for crap, you get crap.


*Scottsdale: Rs outnumber Ds by 20 percentage points; Fountain Hills: Rs have a 26 percentage point advantage.  In \both municipalities, Independents outnumber Ds, though Ds and Is combined outnumber Rs. (Source: Maricopa County Recorder's Office)

BTW - I've heard anecdotally that activity fees, even general ones that aren't related to a specific sport or something similar, are way up this year, resulting in a lot of parents with sticker shock.  Unless more Democrats are elected to the legislature and Terry Goddard wins the race for Governor, expect more increases in both direct fees and class sizes.

FEC Reports - Congressional primary races

Some of these are eye-opening...

All info courtesy the website of the Federal Election Commission, reporting period 7/1/2010 thru 8/4/2010 (three weeks before the primary)...

In order of interest to me (call it "blogger's privilege" or something :) ) -

CD5

Schweikert: $225529.45 cash on hand, raised slightly less than $36K during the period, spent over $244K.  Debt of $500K (to himself).

Ward: $172944.21 on hand, raised $28657, spent $264K, $315548.83 in debt.

Bitter Smith: $48454.60 on hand, raised less than $20K, spent slightly less than $83K, $81329.02 debt.

Salvino: $27.6K on hand, raised less than $10K, spent more than $91K, debt of $210958.04.

Spinks: $41.82 cash on hand (not "41.82K" but forty-one dollars and eighty-two cents), raised $170, spent $557, no debt.

Gentry:  I couldn't find a report for the most recent reporting period.

Analysis*: It isn't over per se, but Salvino, Spinks and Gentry are toast, and Bitter Smith is on life support.  Ward has a shot, but Schweikert seems to think he has it wrapped up, and is coasting a little, ticking off supporters of some of the other candidates.

These folks seem to be Republican B-teamers - perennial wannabes looking for one last shot at glory or carpetbaggers looking for a district where they can buy a nomination.  Not talking smack here, one of these folks could move up to A-team status (Bitter Smith and Schweikert have held offices before, and Ward has access to cash), but they've got it to prove.


CD3

Crump: Less than $7300 on hand, raised $11456, spent slightly over $17K.  No debt.

Gorman: Less than $26K on hand, raised $14K, spent $5371.  No debt.

Morris: Slightly more than $40K on hand, raised $16K, spent $74K, $50K debt.

Moak: $121K on hand, raised a little more than $15K, spent more than $577K.  Debt of more than $592K ($300K in this period alone).

Parker: $63K on hand, raised $36K, spent $123K, debt of $26431.60.

Quayle: $429K on hand, raised $218K, spent $473K, $1223 debt.

Waring: $29.5K on hand, raised $17K, spent $81K, debt of $41K.

Winkler: $24.5K on hand, raised $5225, spent $8253, no debt.

I cannot find reports for the other candidates (Branch, Hull).

Analysis*: Based on the money numbers, the race is between Quayle (tapping Daddy's friends for cash) and Moak (placing a big bet on his own candidacy), but Parker, Waring, Gorman, and Morris still have a heartbeat.  In a free-for-all like this one, money for mailers and ad buys may not mean as much as an effective street-level GOTV machine.  Crump, Winkler, Branch, and Hull are done.  Quayle should be just as done after his recent gaffes, but Daddy's money and name may purchase some short memories among GOP primary voters.

Probably the strongest set of candidates that the GOP has fielded this year (3 former legislators, 2 former mayors, 1 son of a former USVP, a well-funded businessman, and Morris, who is moderate, female, intelligent, articulate, attractive, Jewish, and Cuban.  In Florida, they'd have already cancelled the election and administered the oath of office to her, but in AZ she'll be lucky to break out of single digits), but they are slicing each other to ribbons and whittling down the funds that donors will have available in the general election.  Look for lots of independent expenditures from GOP-friendly groups as they try to retain this seat in the general.


CD8

Paton: almost $187K on hand, raised $46K, spent $146K, debt of slightly less than $13K.

Kelly: almost $79K on hand, raised $78K, spent $159K, no debt.

The other candidates have dropped out or haven't filed reports that I can find.

Analysis*:  This race could be the one to watch - Paton is the candidate of the GOP "establishment" and may be the better general election candidate, but Kelly has enough Tea Party support to pull the upset, and enough cash to make a last minute push.


CD7

McClung: $15K on hand, raised slightly less than $11K, spent slightly less than $18K, debt of $2300.

Myers: more than $23K on hand, raised $1820, spent $56K, debt of more than $95K.

I couldn't find reports for the other candidates. 

Analysis*: The top GOP candidates to unseat Raul Grijalva raised less than $13K between them.  Candidates who are toast in other districts were able to raise more.  Any other questions? 


CD1

Bowers: A little more than $10K on hand, raised $11K, spent a little less than $15K, no debt.

Gosar: Nearly $41K on hand, raised slightly less than $40K, spent $130K, no debt.

Hay: More than $116K on hand, raised $32K, spent $60K, debt of $100K.

Jensen: Reporting $1195 cash on hand on the summary page, but also reports $1595 raised and $1595 spent.  Hand-written reports, wife or other relative as treasurer.  'Nuff said.

Mehta: Less than $2600 on hand, raised $7300, spent $25K, debt of slight less than $11K.

I could not locate reports for the other candidates.

Analysis*: Hay's got the cash, Gosar seems to have the momentum.  Hay may be holding on to the cash to pay down her debt after the primary.  If the CD5 Rs are B-teamers, these folks are C- and D- teamers.


CD4

Contreras: $2500 on hand, raised $6800, spent $4300, $25K in debt.

Penalosa hasn't filed a report that I could find, but his July report showed numbers in line with Contreras'.

Analysis*: Either one could win the R nomination, though considering that incumbent Ed Pastor has $1.5 million on hand, I'm not sure that qualifies as a good thing for whichever one wins the nod. 


CD2

Black reports $69 (not $69000 or even $6900, but *$69.00* cash on hand in his quest to unseat fellow Republican Franks (cash on hand of $69K).


CD6

Smith reports cash on hand of $5593 in his quest to unseat fellow Republican Flake (almost $800K on hand).

Analysis*: Both Franks and Flake face primary challenges from the right, of all places, but other than the hardcore Tea Party types, no one can say (with a straight face, anyway) that Franks and Flake are "too liberal" to be "good" Republicans.  The lack of financial support for the upstarts indicates that both are safe from serious intra-GOP challenges.

Key:  "Analysis*" equals "opportunity to let loose a little snark."

Note: The candidates who didn't file reports that I could locate are all long shots anyway, so I'm not worrying about them.  If one of them pulls out a primary victory, I'll eat my computer**.

** = Not really.  I will admit to making a mistake, however.  Call it "eating crow instead of a computer."

Note2: I didn't really cover the Democratic races because there aren't any primary races for Congressional seats.

The prison escape and passing the blame

Hat tip to Donna at Democratic Diva for unearthing this nugget...

In the aftermath of the abysmal failure of one of Arizona's privately-run prisons to protect Arizona (and the rest of the country) from violent inmates (and the deafening silence on the subject from Governor Jan Brewer and the private prison lobbyists "advisers" in her cabinet), one of the Republican themes has been to blame former governor and current U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano.  The inmate classification system that allowed violent inmates to be placed in a privately-operated prison meant for DUI and low-level drug offenders was originally created while she was governor of Arizona.

There's only one problem with that.

As Donna found, available on the website of the Arizona Department of Corrections, the current classification system was revised and updated on February 25, 2010.

Guess who was Governor on that date, and had been Governor for more than a year at that point? 

Give you a hint - it wasn't Janet Napolitano.


BTW - the push for privatization continues unabated.  The ADC's website still contains a page for the information associated with a "request for proposals" (RFP) for the complete privatization of correctional health services.

BTW2 - The warden of the private prison and a security chief/staffer have resigned in the wake of the escapes.  However, as they work for a private prison company, I don't know if they are out of the prison/corrections field altogether or will be reassigned to another location within the parent corporation's portfolio.

Short Attention Span Musing

Just a few quick hits for a Saturday...

...Just how crazy/bad does a Republican have to be for Russell Pearce not to endorse him?  I don't know, but apparently Jack Harper does.

...Ben Quayle, one of the gaggle of R candidates jockeying for a shot at replacing Congresman John Shadegg in CD3, received a lot of press coverage this week.  And contrary to the popular saw, not all publicity is good publicity.

First, he denied, then admitted, to writing for a "racy" website, TheDirty.com (at the time, it was called "TheDirtyScottsdale.com").

Then he gained notoriety for airing what has to be the most content-free TV spot of the election cycle wherein he labelled Barack Obama as the "worst President in history."  At no point did he ever talk about CD3 or its needs...or why he would be the best one to serve those needs.

Of course, considering that he recently sent out a "awww, isn't he a great family man?!?" mailer showing him with his kids...only he doesn't have kids, this weeks screwups should have been expected.  Still, with his family name recognition and the vast amount of money from out-of-state contributors that he has access to, he may still pull of winning the R nomination in CD3.

No matter which of the many Rs running in CD3, Democrat Jon Hulburd stands firmly in their way.

...The Parraz campaign is touting some poll numbers in the race for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.  Their numbers show them behind Rodney Glassman by 3 percentage points, which is within the margin of error.  Those numbers are consistent with other polls, so that is not news.  What is interesting is the data that Latino voters are going for Parraz by a 6 or 7 to 1 margin.  And that Latino turnout is up.

Now, campaigns only release internal polling numbers when they show (or can be spun to show) their candidates' strength, so take the release with a grain of salt.

However, if it is true, especially the part about Latino turnout increasing, it shows a possible path out of the electoral woods for AZ Democrats. 

The Republicans' whole-hearted embrace of the nativist ideals of Russell Pearce and Jan Brewer to gain support in primary races could come to backfire on them in November.

Here's hoping....

...Finally, while the last of the three escapees from one of Arizona's privately-operated prisons is still on the loose (maybe in Montana, though by now he and his cousin/fiancee/drug mule for a white supremacist gang could be anywhere) and Terry Goddard, Arizona's Attorney General and a candidate for governor, has called for reviewing and revamping prison security in AZ, Governor Jan Brewer has been out picnicking "campaigning", with nary a word about private prisons, her administration's ties to private prison operators, or even hearings to look into the failure of the private prisons to protect the public from murderers.

Just another Saturday roundup in the desert...

Tune in Monday for the next stage in the infighting at Maricopa County

More goings-on in Maricopa County...

From the Arizona Republic -

Maricopa County officials will subpoena records that Sheriff Joe Arpaio has refused to hand over to U.S. Department of Justice lawyers for a civil-rights investigation, according to a county letter.


Cari Gerchick, a county spokeswoman, told The Insider that the move is meant to prevent federal officials from taking away funds from the county. Last year, she said the county received $113 million in federal funds; she could not immediately say how much went to the Sheriff’s Office.

"Certainly we want to try to minimize any exposure we have on either the legal or financial front," Gerchick said. "We believe the Sheriff’s Office should comply with the Department of Justice’s investigation on the basis of the civil rights investigation. We don’t know why they wouldn’t comply. And, our letter to the DOJ is to let them know that Maricopa County will assist the DOJ in its inquiry."

The next broadside in the ongoing battle between the County Supes and the Maricopa County Sheriff will take place on Monday when the supes hold a special meeting to consider to consider but a single item -

1. RESOLUTION OF THE BOARD OF SUPERVISORS OF MARICOPA COUNTY REGARDING AN ORDER TO SHOW CAUSE

Consider an action, if applicable, to adopt a resolution entitled, “Resolution of the Board of Supervisors of Maricopa County to Issue an Order to Show Cause to Maricopa County Sheriff's Office - Joseph Arpaio to Appear and Show Cause Why the Maricopa County Sheriff's Office Should Not be Held in Contempt for Failure to Comply with Board Issued Subpoena Duces Tecum Dated July 29, 2010.” (C-06-11-053-M-00)

 
Earlier on Monday, there will be an "informal" meeting with the normally juicy (in a "get the Kool-Aid drinkers worked up" sort of way) topics of property tax levies, but most of the attention will be on the "special" meeting.
 
Wednesday's "formal" meeting of the supes includes an item to terminate early the lease with Wells Fargo, at Wells Fargo's request, for the MCSO offices in the Wells Fargo building in downtown Phoenix.  They have leased space in the Luhrs Building at Central and Jefferson.
 
And as much fun as watching Wells Fargo throw Arpaio out of his preferred, and rather tony, digs in their building will be, that will be nothing compared to the fireworks at and after the special meeting on Monday.
 
The latest Arpaio antics, courtesy the Phoenix New Times' Valley Fever, here.