"That's not too important"

Edit on 6/13 to correct an error regarding financial reporting dates...

John McCain, in an unusually honest moment, admitted that he believes that it's "not too important" when or if the our troops are brought home from Iraq.

In an interview on Wednesday's Today Show on NBC, host Matt Lauer asked McCain if he knew when the troops would come home.

His response?

No, but that's not too important. What's important is the casualties in Iraq.

He went on to rationalize his statement by conflating his intent to permanently deploy American troops in Iraq with the permanent presence of troops in South Korea, Japan, and Germany, and the relatively low levels of casualties in those places (relative to the meatgrinder in Iraq, anyway).

What he conveniently forgot to mention is that in those countries U.S. troops have served as a stabilizing influence in countries that have either attacked us in the past (Japan, Germany) and are now allies, or have been threatened or attacked by others and needed a continuing protective presence (South Korea, Germany again).

He also conveniently forgot to mention that Iraq never attacked the U.S., or that the biggest outside threat to Iraq is, well, *us.*

To use a sports metaphor, McCain served up a batting practice fastball to the Democrats today, one that Democrats ranging from Sens. Harry Reid, John Kerry and Joe Biden in D.C. and all the way to wiseass bloggers from McCain's home state are taking turns hitting out of the park.

As an aside, this past weekend, two of the big guns for the AZ Republicans, McCain and Jon Kyl (R-Big Pharma), held a fundraiser for embattled CD3 Congressman John Shadegg (coverage here), rumored to be a successful one. We should find out in a month or so - the next FEC report is due in by July 15.

Wonder how many of the donors that McCain roped in for his friend Shadegg have ties to defense contractors, Big Oil, or others who are profiting from the Iraq Forever War?

I suppose we'll just have to wait until July. Of course, if that number is accurate, Shadegg and company will start crowing, and soon - they need good news to rally the faithful around Shadegg in the face of the ever-stronger challenge from Democratic candidate Bob Lord.

Baltimore Sun coverage here.

Daily Voice coverage here.

Later!

Andy Thomas needs a refresher course in election law...

...and that refresher should cover both the academic and practical aspects...

Andrew Thomas, the embattled Maricopa County Attorney, appears to be committing a campaign faux pas by having one of his deputies stump for him.

From the website of the LD8 Republicans (emphasis theirs)-

NEXT MEETING: JUNE 12, 2008

Don’t miss this month’s program!
Sheriff Joe Arpaio
and representing Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas,
Rachel Alexander, Deputy County Attorney,
will discuss the latest immigration issues.

I know that the appearance will be spun as a "non-campaign" activity but it's an appearance with one candidate (Arpaio), on behalf of another candidate (Thomas), in front of a partisan group (LD8 Reps) during an election year (2008). They might call it "non-campaign" or "public outreach" or something similar, but it looks and smells like a partisan campaign activity.

Perhaps the appearance by Ms. Alexander would more easily pass the 'sniff test' if she was billed as "Representing the Maricopa County Attorney's Office" instead of as representing Thomas personally.

[Note - In the event that the LD8 Reps wise up and change their webpage, I have a copy of the original. If you want a copy, just leave a comment with your email and I'll be happy to send it to you.]

Even if he gets away with it (and he will - who's going to call Thomas on a campaign violation? The Republican Maricopa County Recorder? The Republican-controlled Maricopa County Board of Supervisors? The Republican Arizona Secretary of State? They're not likely to make one of their own follow the rules...), this appearance by Ms. Alexander on behalf of Thomas highlights another, perhaps more important, campaign faux pas -


In a year when Thomas is facing two (not one, but TWO!) strong challengers for the job of Maricopa County Attorney (thank you Gerald Richard and Tim Nelson), Andy Thomas isn't even showing up.


Not a good start in what is going to be a tough year for Republicans, even those who run solid campaigns...

Ms. Alexander has been flacking for Thomas for a while, as can be seen from this article written by her, as well as this one and this bio from a conservative website. Ambitious she; apparently she's trying to become the next Ann Coulter.

I'm not really sure that even Andrew Thomas' coattails can carry her that far down. :))

Later!

WAG time...

Yesterday, PolitickerAZ's Wally Edge posted a list of potential winners and losers in the fallout if, as rumored, Governor Napolitano accepts a Cabinet position in an potential Obama presidential administration.

I can't argue with his lists (his analysis, though brief, was pretty good), but his list of 'losers' was incomplete.


He missed the group that stands to lose the most - the people of Arizona.


Right now, Gov. Napolitano is all that stands between us and the loons of the Flat Earth Society, Arizona Chapter (aka - the Republican caucus in the lege).

If Napolitano steps down, Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer ascends to the governor's office.

"Governor Jan Brewer" - God help us all.


However...

This article from the Swing State Project about possible changes to the U.S. Senate after the fall elections got me to thinking.

[Lots of 'ifs' ahead, a sure sign of wild, unsupported speculation. What can I say? I'm bored. :) ]

If Obama wins in November, and John McCain decides that he is tired from his nearly 50 years of public service (military and political) and wants to spend some time with his friends and family and retires after the election (and rumors to that effect have surfaced before), depending on the timing, Gov. Napolitano could accept a job in D.C. *and* protect Arizona's citizens.

If McCain retires, Napolitano would get to appoint his successor. Under AZ law, that appointee must be a member of the same political party as McCain.

Jan Brewer is a Republican (in fact, she's a very partisan one, hence my trepidation at the thought of a Brewer governorship).

Hmm. What to do, what to do??

A possible solution could work like this -

McCain retires, Napolitano appoints Brewer, Napolitano accepts a Cabinet position, and the AZ governorship falls to the next highest-ranked elected statewide official -

Democratic Attorney General Terry Goddard.


Upsides -

- Governor Napolitano gets to go to D.C. and the people of Arizona are still protected from the loons.

- A strong Rep potential candidate for the 2010 race for governor is taken out of the picture.

- The presumptive Democratic nominee in 2010 gets to run as an incumbent.


Downsides -

- Brewer is young enough (early 60s, I think) and ambitious enough to take a shot at a full term in the Senate; this would give her a leg up on any other candidates, Dem or Rep. If Napolitano has any designs on that seat herself, appointing Brewer could make it tough for her to win the seat.

- It would really tick off the Republican leadership in the state lege. They'd still have a Democratic Governor standing in their way.

But wait, they're ticked off now, and that fact isn't really a 'downside.' :)

- Also, while it's been rumored in the past, there's no guarantees that McCain is going to retire if he loses in November, or that Brewer would accept an appointment to serve out his term.


Of course, this could all be moot if the Democrats can overcome McCain's presence on the ballot and win a majority in one or both chambers of the state lege.

Do your part to make an Arizonan U.S. Attorney General or Secretary of Homeland Security - volunteer to help your Democratic legislative candidates!

OK, boredom's over - later!

:))

Congress Passes Dick's Protection Act

The snarkiness is just flowing today..."

I haven't picked on Congress much during this, the 2nd Session of the 110th Congress. Partially because they've done some OK work this year (they haven't surrendered to BushCo as often this year as last - amazing what an election year can do to stiffen the spines of incumbents :) ), but mostly it's because like many bloggers, I've been distracted by the upcoming elections.

Anyway, I was going to do a quick blurb about Rep. Dennis Kucinich's introduction of 35 articles of impeachment against George Bush (support the spirit, but truly don't expect them to be more than a distraction). However, when I read the House's website to see what it had concerning this (not much), I came across something far more interesting (in a "source material for snarkiness" sort of way :) [read from the bottom of the quote up] -

H.R. 5938:

to amend title 18, United States Code, to provide secret service protection to former Vice Presidents, and for other purposes

Motion to reconsider laid on the table Agreed to without objection.

On motion to suspend the rules and pass the bill Agreed to by voice vote.

3:49 P.M. -

DEBATE - The House proceeded with forty minutes of debate on H.R. 5938.

Considered under suspension of the rules.

3:48 P.M. -

Ms. Lofgren, Zoe moved to suspend the rules and pass the bill.

Intrigued, I read the text of the bill. It's a short bill, and here is the relevant part of the text of the bill -

'(8) Former Vice Presidents, their spouses, and their children who are under 16 years of age, for a period of not more than six months after the date the former Vice President leaves office. The Secretary of Homeland Security shall have the authority to direct the Secret Service to provide temporary protection for any of these individuals at any time thereafter if the Secretary of Homeland Security or designee determines that information or conditions warrant such protection.'

There are currently four living ex-vice presidents - Mondale, Quayle, Gore, and George H.W. Bush. One, papa Bush, already qualifies for Secret Service protection.

Under this bill, none of the other three would qualify, having been out of office for over 27 years, 15 years, and 7 years, respectively.

So this bill, as written, wouldn't protect any VP except for the current one, Dick Cheney.

And that protection can be extended indefinitely by the Secretary of Homeland Security.

Hmmm...

Pretty near every VP to ever hold the office has quickly faded into obscurity (notwithstanding Al Gore's Nobel Peace Prize), unless they ascended to the Oval Office.

Why would Cheney need post-VP security? He was never a particuarly high-profile public figure before 2000, so why wouldn't he fade to obscurity like the rest?

I'm totally speculating here (if "speculation" means "wild-ass guess" ), but the only reason that I can think of that would keep Cheney in the public eye after leaving office is that Scott McClellan's book is only the beginning, and that within a year, people won't be wondering why Cheney didn't get impeached, but why he didn't get indicted.

As an aside, why would he need *taxpayer-funded* security? Couldn't Halliburton just hire Blackwater for the job?


Later!

Shadegg and Conservatives going to Vegas -

Take a group of artificially-tanned, permed, blow-dried, holier-than-thou stuffed-shirt types, blind them with glitz and neon lights, stir in showgirls, strippers and prostitutes, sprinkle in an extra special seasoning of female impersonators, marinate with mass quantities of alcohol and bake it all in the late summer Vegas sun.

Then step back and watch the election year wackiness ensue.

It's called "The Conservative Leadership Conference 2008." The conference is taking place from September 18 - 21, with mugshots posted online from September 22 thru Election Day.


Wonder how pissed they're going to be when they figure out the catchphrase "What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas" doesn't apply to YouTube? :))

Of course, with the way things are going in his race against Bob Lord, this trip may be the highlight of the year for Shadegg....

Later!

So what happens now?

While Sen. Jake Flake's family and friends gather in Snowflake, in mourning and remembrance, people from the nether reaches of Navajo County to the centers of power on West Washington in downtown Phoenix are asking that question in the title.

And so is at least one blogger, because there are some nuances to this that I don't understand as yet.

The short-term effect of Sen. Flake's passing, a vacancy in the Senate, seems to have a simple fix.

From ARS 41-1202 -

41-1202. Vacancy in legislature; precinct committeemen; appointment;
definition

A. If a vacancy occurs in the legislature and the vacant seat was represented by a political party that is organized pursuant to title 16, chapter 5, article 2 and that has at least thirty elected committeemen who are from precincts that are in the legislative district and that are in the county in which the vacancy occurred, the following apply:

1. The secretary of state shall notify the state party chairman of the appropriate political party of the vacancy. Within three business days after notification of the vacancy by the secretary of state, the state party chairman of the appropriate political party or the chairman's designee shall give written notice of the meeting to fill the vacancy to all elected precinct committeemen of the appropriate political party from precincts that are in the legislative district and that are in the county in which the vacancy occurred.

2. Those elected precinct committeemen shall nominate, within twenty-one days after notification of the vacancy by the secretary of state if the legislature is not in regular session or within five days if the legislature is in regular session and by a majority vote, three qualified electors to fill the vacancy who meet the requirements for service in the legislature and who belong to the same political party and reside at the time of nomination in the same district and county as the person elected to or appointed to the office immediately before the vacancy.

While there might be some playing around with the "official" notifications that start the clock in this section, the bottom line is that since the lege is in regular session (unless Tim Bee is holding another D.C. fundraiser), the appropriate Rep PCs will be gathering within the next week to ten days to nominate candidates to fill the seat.

There's a bit more, but the important, and confusing to me anyway, part is the phrase "...from precincts that are in the legislative district and that are in the county in which the vacancy occurred."


So....does this fall to the Republican PCs in all of LD5, or just those that are in the part of LD5 that's in Navajo County, the home of Snowflake, Arizona? Anyone?


Section 4 of the above ARS section prescribes that "the board of supervisors of the county of residence of the person elected or appointed to the office immediately before the vacancy occurred" shall select a replacement from the three candidates offered by the PCs, which actually makes sense in a district like LD5, which has 110 precincts in parts of six counties (Apache, Coconino, Gila, Navajo, Graham, and Greenlee).

That particular clause is an easy way to prevent turf battles among county boards of supervisors.


The other aspect of this may not have such a simple resolution - this fall's election.

The Republican side is easy -

Sen. Flake was the only candidate from either party to turn in sigs for a run for the LD5 Senate seat, and the deadline for others to do so has passed (June 4th).

ARS 16-343 states that in the event of the death of a candidate, the district's PCs of the party of the candidate get together and nominate another candidate. That clearly covers the Republicans, but since no Democrat had stepped forward to run against Flake, this is still an uncontested seat.

Unless...

In 2006, Sue Dolphin of LD4 ran as a write-in candidate during the primary, garnering enough votes to appear on the ballot for the general election as a candidate for state rep.

A Democrat in LD5 would need to receive 385 write-in votes during the primary to do the same thing this year in LD5, according to the AZ Secretary of State's signature requirements and ARS 16-645.

So the question is - Is there a Democrat who's willing to step up, and are the rest of the Dems in the district ready to support him/her?

The numbers actually say that there is a reasonable chance of success - Dem registrations outnumber Rep registrations in LD5 by more than 1600 (though the trend there is actually the reverse of the rest of the state - there was a Democratic reg advantage of over 3000 in October, 2006).

An energetic Democratic candidate could benefit from an interesting dynamic in LD5 - while Navajo County has the plurality of Republicans in the district, Gila County also makes up a large part of the district. I don't know how the distribution of Rep PCs in LD5 breaksdown, but I expect that it's pretty evenly split, with a slight numerical advantage to Navajo County. There could be a little intersectional rivalry going on here (or there might not be - I really don't know this part of the state.)

Further complicating things is the fact that while the Navajo County Board of Supervisors doesn't have much say in who the PCs nominate to fill Flake's seat for the remainder of his term, the BOS is 4/5 Democratic and will be unlikely to select someone who is likely to run for the seat as a candidate in September and November.

Especially if a Democratic challenger steps up.

Please note: If I've made any mistakes in my interpretation of any of the relevent sections of law, I plead guilty of trying to read legalese while exhausted. :)

Please feel free to leave a comment with corrections. Just try to keep it constructive. :))

In addition, anyone with further insight into the dynamics of LD5, Dem or Rep, is welcome to share some of that insight.

Have a good night...

State Sen. Jake Flake passes away

Courtesy AZCentral.com -

Ariz. State Senator Jake Flake died Sunday after suffering a fall at his home near Snowflake. He was 72.

Mary Louise Flake, the senator's wife, said her husband fell shortly after he awoke around 8:45 a.m. After his fall, he passed out and couldn't be revived, his wife said.

The longtime cattle rancher and former Arizona speaker of the House has been a fixture at the Legislature since 1997.

My condolences go out to the entire Flake family...


Note: For those of you who were wondering, Sen. Flake was Congressman Jeff Flake's (R-AZ6) uncle.

Note2: I'll ask the tacky but obvious question in a later post (but it's based on this post)

Later!

Short Attention Span Musing

...First up: The No-Snarkiness section of tonight's post...

Congressman Harry Mitchell will be holding the grand opening party for the headquarters of his reelection campaign on Saturday, June 14, from 1 p.m. until 3 p.m. The office is at 123 E. Baseline Rd. in Tempe (SE corner of Baseline and Mill) It's in the same retail/office complex as his 2006 office, just in a different part of the complex. Follow the streamers, balloons, and other signs of festiveness. :)

For more info or to volunteer, contact the campaign at 480.755.3343 or via email at info[at]harry2008.com.


...Does Randy Pullen own stock in Dolan Media?

Dolan Media is the parent company of the Arizona Capitol Times, the weekly devoted to covering the goings-on on West Washington.

The Cap Times has a feature called "Best of the Blogs". As might be expected from the name of the feature, it is supposed to feature the best commentary from AZ's blogosphere.

As a blogger, I welcome any MSM recognition for the work done by many of us, left, right, or middle of the road.

However, the Cap Times' "Best of..." feature has been exhibiting a bit of a pattern.

The blogs selected for inclusion tend to fall into one of two groups - The Yellowsheet Report, the Cap Times' own premium "blog" (it's more of a tipsheet than a blog), and AZ Republican Party press release "faux" blogs.

Since the issue dated May 2, 2008 (the earliest issue that the Scottsdale library had out on the main floor) -

Blogs featured May 2 - RedArizona, AZHouseGOP, Red State Arizona, and Yellowsheet Report.

May 9 - While the website has something, there was nothing in the print edition.

May 16 - Sonoran Alliance, Zonitics, Liberty's Apothecary, Seeing Red AZ, and Yellowsheet Report.

May 23 - PolitickerAZ, Red State Arizona, Arizona Political Heat, Yellowsheet Report.

May 30 - Arizona Political Intel, PolitickerAZ, Yellowsheet Report.


That's 16 "blogs" featured over 5 issues.

25% of the time (four) it featured its own (Yellowsheet); nothing surprising in that, Cap Times is a business, and part of that business is pimping advertising itself.

12.5% (twice) of the time, it featured a 'neutral' blog in PolitickerAZ. Some might question it's "blogness" as it is more of an "online news outlet," but it's close enough for our purposes.

For the remaining 62.5% of the time (10 times), it featured hardcore Rep blogs.

[And even there, Cap Times showed bias against original content - six of the ten, Arizona Political Intel, Arizona Political Heat, Red State Arizona (twice), and AZHouseGOP aren't much more than press release outlets for the AZ GOP.]

And, in the most recent period covered by the five issues, none of the blogs featured could be considered Democratic.

Now, I don't really expect them to feature Dems on a regular basis (though Ted Prezelski, Eli Blake, Man Eegee, Michael Bryan, some of the Democratic Divas and others do some great writing, definitely worthy of recognition) - as long as the Reps have a registration advantage and control both chambers of the lege, the Cap Times will lean toward the buttered side of their bread, the Republicans.

However, even allowing for that consideration, where's Espresso Pundit, Exurban League, Arizona 8th, or even a few of the others? They're all loyal Republicans [as such, they're usually wrong, but that goes with being *Republicans* :)) ] but at least they publish their own words.

If the Cap Times wants to publish GOP press releases, that's their right, but they should be honest about it.


...Speaking of MSM outlets showing bias, the Republic shouldn't show preferences in their coverage of local elections, except in their endorsement editorials.

They dropped this line in an editorial in the Scottsdale edition of the Rep -

Joel BramOweth [sic] has been campaigning for more than a year, speaking at virtually every council meeting. Few observers take him seriously, but he has the money to mount a full campaign.

I've met Mr. Bramoweth and even signed his nominating petitions. I might not agree with him on every issue, but he's worked harder than any of the other candidates at participating in and learning about Scottsdale's governance (he's been at every Council meeting that I've been to and has been at many of the commission meetings that I've attended, too (Planning, Transportation, Human Relations). While some of the other candidates make the occasional appearance at a Council meeting, I haven't seen any of the others at commission meetings.

In addition, earlier this year at a meeting of the Community Council of South Scottsdale, he was the only candidate or sitting member of the Council to say something when one of the other attendees started spouting off some nativist bs about Mexicans.

In short, he may not always be right (that's the job of wiseass bloggers :) ), but he's an intelligent, hard-working, and decent human being.

If that kind of candidate shouldn't be "taken seriously," what does that say about the state of Scottsdale's politics?


...Oh, and speaking of the Community Council of South Scottsdale, their next meeting is scheduled for Thursday, June 19, with a special guest speaker on the subject of promoting humanity, unity, and civility in our culture.

Joe Arpaio.

This shouldn't be a surprise - I'm sure that he'll get to those subjects if he has any time left after promoting himself, nativism, bigotry, and hatred.

Later!

Politics 101: A Tale of Two Incumbents

...On one hand, we have freshman Democrat Harry Mitchell. He's defending his seat a district where he faces a crowded field of Republican challengers hoping to take advantage of a daunting Republican registration advantage in the district.


Instead of running scared (which has never been Mitchell's style in nearly four decades of public service anyway), he has simply been doing his job, working for the people of his district.


- He's been working tirelessly since he took office in January 2007 to support the Fifth District's (and America's!) veterans with H.R. 5740, the Post-9/11 Veterans Educational Assistance Act of 2008, prodding the Veterans' Administration over its almost-criminally lax efforts to meet the medical, psychological, and social needs of injured veterans (here, here, and here), meeting with his Veterans Advisory Council here in the district, or myriad other efforts on behalf of vets.

Here his efforts have been less focused on ideology than on people.


- Since late last year, Mitchell and his staff have been working to address the failures at a water treatment facility that resulted in many of his constituents being exposed to TCE-contaminated drinking water. Again, his instincts are to help his constituents.


- More recently (Wednesday, as a matter of fact), he's working to help Corona del Sol High School by bringing national attention to the plight of students, faculty, and staff. They've been dealing with air-quality related medical ailments as a result of the poor air inside the aging school.


AZ Rep coverage of his floor speech here; the actual floor statement starts on this page of the Congressional Record, and goes on to the next.

Yet again, he focuses on working for his constituents.


In short, the longtime teacher, Tempe city council member and mayor understands Politics 101, best summed up by the title of Tip O'Neill's book, "All Politics Is Local."




...On the other hand, we have 7-term incumbent Republican incumbent John Shadegg. He's defending his seat against a relative political newcomer in Bob Lord (he's not new to public service, but is new to elected office). He's in a district that has an even wider Republican registration advantage than CD5 and he's an experienced campaigner.


This should be a cakewalk for him, right?


It probably would be, except that he is failing Politics 101, and failing miserably.

- He fights against efforts to help America's (and the Third District's) veterans, whether in empty gestures of support, or in a pattern of outright opposition, usually rationalized with in the name of his "small or no government" ideology.

- When many of his constituents in Paradise Valley were dealing water taps that delivered poison instead of water, he ignored it in favor of campaigning for fellow Republican John McCain in South Carolina.

He couldn't even be bothered to send an intern to NIBW meetings or have a low-level staffer write a press release expressing his concern over the issue.

- He even opposed the Act (H.R. 3021) that Harry Mitchell spoke in support of on Wednesday, voting against modernizing public schools and educational facilities.

Even the invitations to his re-election fundraisers don't bother to tout the work that Shadegg has done for his constituents, because there isn't any such work to tout.

The invite for this Saturday's fundraiser with Sens. McCain and Kyl touts Shadegg's record as "one of the most principled and steady conservative leaders" in Congress.

In something of an ironic twist, Saturday's fundraiser is at a home in Paradise Valley. Wonder if the house is in the service area of Arizona American Water, operator of the treatment facility that caused all the furor in November and January?

Mitchell's record is one of concern for and advocacy on behalf of his constituents; Shadegg's record is that of someone who places the interests of his party and his large campaign contributors above the interests of his constituents.


Is it any wonder that Harry Mitchell is ahead of the leading Republican contenders in this April poll of head-to-head matchups, and that John Shadegg's support is in decline and free fall in this current poll?

Part of Shadegg's problem may be his experience, or lack of it - unlike Mitchell who had a long resume of public service prior to entering Congress, Shadegg's pre-Congress resume is primarily that of a professional Republican, not a professional public servant. The closest he came was as a special assistant attorney general during the 1980s under Republican AG Bob Corbin.

Not exactly a job that motivates the jobholder to worry about the concerns of the people he meets during the course of his duties. :))

Anyway, about the only good news from the poll for Shadegg was the fact that he is outpolling the President - Bush has a 30% favorable rating, and Shadegg has 31% support for his reelection.

On second thought, maybe that isn't such good news... :)

Note: If you are interested in seeing the actual invitation to Shadegg's fundraiser, leave a comment with your email addy; I'll be happy to forward it.

Later!

Free Passes and Primary Challenges - Interesting Races This Fall

Edit on 6/10 to correct Linda Lopez' status as a State Representative, not an incumbent State Senator...

In the following lege races, the candidates are unopposed in both the primary and the general elections (courtesy the AZ Secretary of State's website) -

Jake Flake, Republican incumbent, running for LD5 State Senate.

Carolyn Allen, Republican incumbent, running for LD8 State Senate.

Richard Miranda, Democratic incumbent, running for LD13 State Senate.

Debbie McCune Davis, Democratic incumbent, running for LD14 State Senate.

Ken Cheuvront, Democratic incumbent, running for LD15 State Senate.

Chuck Gray, Republican incumbent, running for LD19 State Senate.

Jay Tibshraeny, Republican incumbent, running for LD21 State Senate.

Paula Aboud, Democratic incumbent, running for LD28 State Senate.

Linda Lopez, Democratic State Rep, running for LD29 State Senate.

That makes for 9 out of the 30 seats, or 30% are going completely unchallenged.


Over in the House, less than 7% (4 out of 60) are getting a free pass -

Lucy Mason and Andy Tobin, Republican incumbents running for LD1 State Representative.

David Bradley and Steve Farley, Democratic incumbents running for LD28 State Representative.


A number of incumbents in both the House and Senate are termed out, and are either seeking a new office or are stepping away from public office this time around. However, almost all of the races that are completely uncontested involve incumbents; the other seats have actual contests, even the open seats.

Some of the interesting races (I'll leave the commentary on the southern AZ races to Tedski at R-Cubed - he knows the players waayyyy better than I do :) ) -

...In the LD5 race for the State Representative seats, Democratic State Rep. Jack Brown and moderate Republican State Rep. Bill Konopnicki face the presence of Russell Pearce-favorite Sylvia Tenney Allen in their race to retain their seats.

...In the LD10 State Rep race looks to be crowded - 4 Democrats (including incumbent Jackie Thrasher) are vying for the chance to face House Speaker Jim Weiers and former (and wants-to-be-again) seatmate Doug Quelland. Thrasher was a surprise winner in 2006, and she won't sneak up on anyone this time around, but the Rep registration advantage in that district is now even smaller than it was in 2006. This district is close enough to split again but could easily sweep either way.

LD10 bears close scrutiny (and lots of feet on the ground) this year.

...In the race for LD22 State Senate, Senate Majority Leader Thayer Verschoor (R) is facing two (2!!) primary challengers - termed out State Rep. Eddie Farnsworth and Joe Bedgood. It's unusual for a reliable winger like Verschoor to face a challenge from another winger like Farnsworth, but to face two challengers? That is almost unheard-of.

Should be a bloody primary; unfortunately, no Democratic candidate filed to take advantage of a (hopefully!) weakened Republican in the general election.

...As has been covered before, the race for LD18 State Senate sees Russell Pearce, who mounted an abortive challenge to Congressman Jeff Flake, facing Flake's brother-in-law, Kevin Gibbons, in the Republican primary.

At least here, there is a Democratic candidate, Judah Nativio, poised to take advantage of the expected-to-be brutal Republican race.

...In something of a pleasant surprise, in the LD State Senate race, incumbent Republican Jack Harper is facing a primary challenge from John Zerby. Zerby is no rookie as he is a veteran of the Wickenburg City Council.

Hope it's bloody; Democrat Robert Boehlke is already in position to take advantage.

There are a few other races to watch; but it's getting late, so I'll cover those in another post.

Later!

OK, sigs are in, and the races are set...

well, set pending verification of the sigs and any challenges...

Major races (Maricopa County, Mesa/Scottsdale/Tempe and statewide) contested by candidates from both major parties only. Many offices have Libertarian or Green candidates, but until one of those candidates garners enough support to make a difference in an election, I'm not going to waste space -


For County offices -

County Attorney -

Gerald Richard, Democrat. 2338 sigs required, 5186 submitted.

Tim Nelson, Democrat. 2338 sigs required, 5544 submitted.

Andrew Thomas, Republican. 3165 sigs required, 6518 submitted.


County Sheriff -

Dan Saban, Democrat. 2338 sigs required, 9071 submitted.

Joe Arpaio, Republican. 3165 sigs required, 12853 submitted.


Board of Supervisors, District 1 -

Ed Hermes, Democrat. 482 sigs required, 1254 submitted.

Fulton Brock, Republican. 712 sigs required, 1583 submitted.


Board of Supervisors, District 2 -

Joel Sinclaire, Democrat. 389 sigs required, 666 submitted.

Don Stapley, Republican. 794 sigs required, 1733 submitted.


Board of Supervisors, District 3 -

Marilyn Fox, Democrat. 449 sigs required, 975 submitted.

Andrew Kunasek, Republican. 617 sigs required, 2837 submitted.


The incumbents in Supervisor Districts 4 and 5, Max Wilson (R) and Mary Rose Wilcox (D) respectively, will be running without opposition.


For State and Congressional offices -

CD5 -

Harry Mitchell, Democrat. 463 signatures required, 1486 submitted.

Mark Anderson, Republican. 683 signatures required, 1647 submitted.

Susan Bitter Smith, Republican. 683 signatures required, 1349 submitted.

Lee Gentry, Republican. 683 signatures required, 1352 submitted.

Laura Knaperek, Republican. 683 signatures required, 1795 submitted.

Jim Ogsbury, Republican. 683 signatures required, 3390 submitted.

David Schweikert, Republican. 683 signatures required, 2078 submitted.

Note - Perhaps in a surprise to everyone outside the Gentry household, the heretofore semi-mythical Lee Gentry's candidacy is for real. He even gathered more sigs than longtime Scottsdale pol Susan Bitter Smith.


CD6 -

Chris Gramazio, Democrat. 494 signatures required, 695 submitted.

Rebecca Schneider, Democrat. 494 signatures required, 863 submitted.

Scott Bergren, Republican. 922 signatures required, 1029 submitted.

Jeff Flake, Republican. 922 signatures required, 2860 submitted.

Note - Wow! Jeff Flake is facing a primary challenger running at him from the right, and it *isn't* Russell Pearce? Who would have guessed that this time last year? Hell, who would have guessed that someone would even *think* of running against the ultraconservative Flake, while trying to portray him as 'not conservative enough'?


LD8 State Senate -

Carolyn Allen, Republican. 527 signatures required, 812 submitted.

Note - Senator Allen is apparently running unopposed in both the primary and general elections.


LD17 State Senate -

Meg Burton Cahill, Democrat. 253 signatures required, 754 submitted.

Jesse Hernandez, Republican. 245 signatures required, 425 submitted.


LD18 State Senate -

Judah Nativio, Democrat. 149 signatures required, 258 submitted.

Kevin Gibbons, Republican. 245 signatures required, 362 submitted.

Russell Pearce, Republican. 245 signatures required, 733 submitted.

Note - At 733 signatures, Russell Pearce submitted the maximum number.


LD8 State Representative -

Stephanie Rimmer, Democrat. 256 signatures required, 599 submitted.

John Kavanagh, Republican. 527 signatures required, 920 submitted.

Michelle Reagan, Republican. 527 signatures required, 1327 submitted.


LD17 State Representative -

Ed Ableser, Democrat. 253 signatures required, 715 submitted.

David Schapira, Democrat. 253 signatures required, 757 submitted.

Mark Thompson, Republican. 245 signatures required, 370 submitted.

Wes Waddle, Republican. 245 signatures required, 451 submitted.

Note - at 757 signatures, David Schapira subitted the maximum allowed.


LD18 State Representative -

Tammie Pursley, Democrat. 149 signatures required, 290 submitted.

Cecil Ash, Republican. 245 signatures required, 733 submitted.

Steve Court, Republican. 245 signatures required, 536 submitted.

Kanani Henderson, Republican. 245 signatures required, 392 submitted.

Ron Middlebrook, Republican. 245 signatures required, 320 submitted.

Note - at 733 signatures, Cecil Ash submitted the maximum number allowed.


Corporation Commission -

Sam George, Democrat. 4580 signatures required, 13915 submitted.

Kara Kelty, Democrat. 4580 signatures required, 7172 submitted.

Sandra Kennedy, Democrat. 4580 signatures required, 8343 submitted.

Paul Newman, Democrat. 4580 signatures required, 9314 submitted.

John Allen, Republican. 5184 signatures required, 6757 submitted.

Rick Fowlkes, Republican. 5184 signatures required, 7741 submitted.

Joseph Hobbs, Republican. 5184 signatures required, 7539 submitted.

Marian McClure, Republican. 5184 signatures required, 6697 submitted.

Bob Robson, Republican. 5184 signatures required, 9700 submitted.

Bob Stump, Republican. 5184 signatures required, 9154 submitted.

Keith Swapp, Republican. 5184 signatures required, 6811 submitted.

Barry Wong, Republican. 5184 signatures required, 7700 submitted.

Note - According to a note on his campaign website, George Arredondo suspended his campaign because he couldn't get enough sigs.


And finally, for Scottsdale municipal offices, courtesy an email from City Clerk Carolyn Jagger, forwarded to me by Sonnie of COGS, [note added by me] -

The following candidates for City Council filed nomination papers and petitions [1652 signatures required for all offices] :

Lisa Borowsky (3,323 signatures)
Joel Bramoweth (2,208 signatures)
Oren Davis (2,445 signatures)
Betty Drake (2,691 signatures)
Tom Giller (2,268 signatures)
Suzanne Klapp (2,672 signatures)
Ron McCullagh (2,481 signatures)
Nan Nesvig (2,599 signatures)

The following candidates for Mayor filed nomination papers and petitions:

W.J. "Jim" Lane (2,484 signatures)
Mary Manross (3,291 signatures)

Write-In Candidates: John Washington filed papers to run for as a write-in candidate for Mayor.

You know, for what is essentially a 'cut and paste' post, this post took a lot of work. Back to quick and snarky after this... :))

Expect a huge influx of snowbirds this year...

Had a conversation with my sister in Denver (who's putting up with me putting me up during the Democratic Convention in August :) ). Our father and his wife, who live in New York, were pricing home heating oil for next winter.

They estimated that during a typical winter, it takes 1500 gallons to heat the house.

The quote they received?

$4.70 per gallon, or more than $7,000 to stay warm for a few months.

They're in a position to handle it (though it's gonna hurt) - bite the bullet and pay, install a wood stove (there's a fireplace, but while those look nice and make for a great picture during the holidays, they suck for actual functionality in modern homes), add insulation, etc.

However, not everyone is in such a position (think: poor or elderly and on a fixed income).

Those folks are going to be left with a few unpleasant options - find a way to scrimp and save to pay for the heating oil, find warmer climes for the duration of the winter, or freeze.

Yep - live on a dog food diet, abandon their homes, homes that in many cases have been their homes for decades or even their entire lives, or die.

All so oil companies can make record profits every year, collectively $123 billion last year alone.

[As an aside - can anyone think of a better illustration of why a McCain presidency and another four years of Bushian economic policies would be horrible for the country?]

The next President and the next Congress are going to have some tough choices to make, the kind of choices that most Republicans are ideologically incapable of making.

Think: investigations and prosecutions (when appropriate) into price-fixing and more, a windfall profits tax, a working (and actually funded!) program for research into renewable energy beyond solar power tax credits (perhaps paid for by the windfall profits tax?), etc.

Of course, none of that will come to pass until some other things come to pass -

...the November elections, because no one in D.C. is going to admit to the existence of an energy crisis or the deep recession that we are already experiencing until after the votes are tallied. Until they're willing to honestly talk about the economy, nothing is going to get done about it.

...a Democrat, Barack Obama, assumes the Presidency, and enters office working with a Congress with a strong Democratic majority in both chambers.

Unfortunately, neither of those will happen until January, by which time it will be too late for some.

The news headlines as the country enters January will be of the pending change in Presidential Administrations, but breaking news from Chicago, the Rust Belt of Ohio, or perhaps even upstate New York, will drive the coverage of inauguration preparations below the fold.

People will start dying.


The boring statistics part of the post -

According to price surveys by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), the average price of home heating oil in New York State has risen more than 62% in the last year and more than 168% since George W. Bush took office in January 2001 (and more than 244% since its Bush-term low in December of 2001.)

I used New York's numbers because of the family connection, but the while the numbers vary, the trend holds true across the nation -

Nebraska - up 430% since December 2001

Michigan - up 265% since December 2001.

Maine - as of March, up 136% since September 2004 (the earliest date available on their website)

According to this U.S. Department of Energy document, through March, the average U.S. price has increased 174% since 2001.


Somebody will be sure to comment on this post, or at least think very loudly, that the increases in consumer prices only reflect increased costs to the producers.

To that I ask - If that is the case, that the price increases are only a case of passing along cost increases, why are oil companies generating billions more in profits?

Later...

Congrats to the NCAA Softball National Champions, ASU!

Congratulations to the women of the ASU Sun Devil softball team on their decisive victory over Texas A&M tonight.

With the 11 - 0 win, highlighted by a 7-run seventh inning they clinched ASU's first national championship in softball.

The entire roster should be proud of their achievement, and the entire university community and the entire state should cheer them.

The roster (courtesy ASU's softball website) -

Clarissa Andorfer-Lopez, Rhiannon Baca, Katie Burkhart, Caylyn Carlson, Kaitlin Cochran, Mindy Cowles, Katie Crabb, Krista Donnenwirth, Megan Elliott, Dani Rae Lougheed, Jessica Mapes, Brittney Matta, Kristen Miller, Ashley Muenz, Amanda Nesbitt, Brooke Neuman, Michelle Nulliner, Sarah Rice, Colleen Robbins, Lesley Rogers, Mandy Urfer, Jackie Vasquez, Jessie Ware, Renee Welty, assistant coaches Kirsten Voak and Robert Wagner, and head coach Clint Myers.

Cochran, Donnenwirth, Rogers, and Vasquez were each named to the Women's College World Series All-Tournament Team, and Katie Burkhart was named the tournament's Most Outstanding Player for her dominating pitching performance. (HokieSports.com)

AZRep coverage here.

An end run around professional ethics and standards: Andrew Thomas and his friends

...Sooooo....when Thomas loses in November, will the (self-appointed) Judicial Advisory Subcommittee of The Flat Earth Society, Arizona Chapter reverse it's position on the disciplinary powers of the state Bar Association? More importantly, will their health insurance cover the whiplash?

On Monday, 15 state legislators (including previous Legislative Loon award winners Sen. Jack Harper and Rep. Russell Pearce) released a letter that they had signed condemning the Arizona Bar Association's investigations into complaints about Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas.

They're upset that their fellow elected official could lose his office because of professional misconduct.

I was going to write a long, detailed, and profoundly perceptive post on this, but Michael Bryan of Blog for Arizona beat me to it, so I get stuck making wiseass comments.

That's truly disappointing.

Really.

Trust me. :))


I wonder what they're more concerned with - preserving Andrew Thomas' future, or quashing the radical idea proposed by the bar association, that elected officials should be held to the same professional standards as their un-elected colleagues?

AZ Republic's Political Insider coverage here; PolitickerAZ coverage here.

Note: This isn't Pearce's first attempt to shield Thomas from his misconduct. In April, he proposed a "strike-everything" amendment to a bill that would have exempted public officials and employees from investigation by or sanctions from the state bar association or the State Supreme Court. Ultimately, the striker wasn't passed or even heard in committee as Pearce chose to not bring it forward because, to paraphrase, "the court will take care of the problem itself." (My post on the topic here)

Perhaps the best solution would be to make the issue a moot one -

Either Gerald Richard or Tim Nelson would make for a far superior public servant and prosecutor than Thomas.

Of course, so would I, and my only exposure to the Arizona legal system has been getting summonsed for jury duty a few times. (BTW: the candidate who promises free wi-fi in all court jury pool waiting areas in the county has the inside track on getting my vote. :)) )

Later!

Tim Bee - is it bipartisanship or bullying?...

Tim Bee likes to tout his willingness to work with Democrats (check out the 'About' page on his campaign website, under the heading 'Statesman'), but it looks as if his bipartisanship is limited to situations where he doesn't have any choice, like getting a state budget passed. Without the OKs of Governor Napolitano and the Democrats in the lege, he wouldn't be able to say "Tim put policy and people above politics working with Republicans, Democrats, and the Governor to create a responsible budget" on his website.

Whether it is situations where he illegally suppresses debate because a bill or amendment sponsored by a Democrat might actually pass (AZCentral.com coverage here) or simply abandoning his duties for the week after one minute's worth of "work" on Wednesday, when left to his own devices, he shows his true colors as nothing more than a rabidly partisan and profoundly petty tyrant.

That was clearly illustrated on Friday.

On Tuesday, June 3, the Senate Democrats will be holding a public forum on the mortgage crisis and how it's affecting Arizona. In preparation for that event, they asked that champion of bipartisanship himself for permission to use a Senate hearing room to hold the event.

And in his usual spirit of bipartisan civility, Bee refused such permission unless State Sens. Pamela Gorman and John Huppenthal were given major roles in the forum. (PolitickerAZ coverage here; R-Cubed coverage here)

Like Bee, Gorman and Huppenthal are among the most reliably conservative (aka - pro-business and anti-consumer) members of the Senate. If the Democrats had given in to his demand, they would have derailed the forum.

Instead of surrendering to Bee's bullying, they spoke to the Governor's office.

Turns out the Governor is more interesting in addressing Arizona's mortgage crisis than Tim Bee or the Republicans in the Senate.

The forum has been moved to the 2nd floor conference room of State Capitol Executive Tower (4 p.m. - 6 p.m.)

Slade Mead over at The Dry Heat has the scoop that part of Bee's (and the Senate's) problem is that Bee hasn't been able to focus on his duties in the Senate (like seeing that a balanced budget is passed, like, before the end of the fiscal year) because he is running for Congress.

Does Senator Bee realize that when he screws up here in metro Phoenix, voters in Tucson hear about it? They don't even have to wait for the pony express to come in with the latest dispatches from the Republican Party headquarters anymore - many of them have radios or telephones. Some are even hooked up to a complicated series of tubes called the internets....

:))

Anyway, somebody should tell Bee that every time he sacrifices true bipartisanship on the altar of petty gamesmanship, he loses even more ground to Gabrielle Giffords.

Really.