Arizona is well on its way to adding another town - San Tan Valley

Yesterday, San Tan Valley, an unincorporated area in northern Pinal County (but in the Phoenix metro area) voted on incorporation.

The results are still unofficial, but the ballot question appears to have passed resoundingly.

From Pinal County Elections -

There are 18 precincts in San Tan Valley; 16 have reported and two have not (as of this writing), but I'm guessing that there aren't enough voters in those two precincts to overcome the current 2-1 margin in favor.

According to Google, San Tan Valley has approximately 100K people in it -

While incorporation would probably make it the largest "town" in Pinal County but not the largest town in AZ.

Gilbert, with slightly under 300K folks, has that title.  There are political costs and benefits to designations of "town" or "city."

And Gilbert has decided to remain a town.

Getting his bigot on - Warren Petersen: President of the AZ State Senate and candidate for AZ Attorney General

Warren Petersen, currently the Republican president of the Arizona State Senate, is one of three candidates for Arizona Attorney General in the Republican primary in 2026 (for now - we're more than a year out from the election and I'm going by the number of committees formed for the race as of now. Not everyone who has formed a committee may gain ballot status, and other folks may jump into the race.)

The AZAG's office is currently held by Democrat Kris Mayes.

Regardless of how many candidates end up on the ballot, Petersen seems to be trying to lock up the support of the MAGAts who will vote in R primary by calling for a federal investigation of a Latina Democrat.

From AZMirror, written by Gloria Rebecca Gomez -

GOP leader wants the feds to investigate a Democrat’s Instagram posts about ICE activity

The top Republican in the Arizona Senate is calling for a federal investigation into a Democratic senator’s social media posts about U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. 

Sen. Analise Ortiz, D-Phoenix, represents a Latino-majority district, and has been a fierce critic of the Trump administration’s mass deportation efforts. When ICE agents began staking out the Phoenix immigration courthouse earlier this year to detain people showing up for mandatory hearings, Ortiz joined protestors in videotaping the arrests and blasting out social media alerts.

 

If this doesn't put him over the top, maybe he can get his cousin, Paul Petersen, disgraced former Maricopa County Assessor, human trafficker, scammer, and convict, to campaign for him.

MAGA types *like* traffickers.

Paul has been transferred to a federal minimum security prison in AZ, and the feds under Cheeto have a documented history of doing that for well-connected traffickers.

The new soap opera moves to Yavapai County

Last week, I wrote a post about how a personality conflict between the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors and the Maricopa County Recorder had devolved into a popcorn-riffic lawsuit.

It seems like we are about to find out if popcorn travels in the heat.

From AZMirror written by Jerod MacDonald-Evoy -

Arizona lawmaker seeks bar discipline for attorney who published racist cartoons

A Republican state lawmaker has filed a complaint with the Arizona State Bar Association after a disgraced former state lawmaker who has faced child sex charges and espoused racist views posted racist AI-generated cartoons aimed at the lawmaker. 

Stringer, a licensed attorney, owns and publishes Prescott eNews, an online news site that covers Prescott and the surrounding communities. He and the publication have been facing pointed criticism for publishing multiple AI-generated “political cartoons” that depict Prescott Valley Republican lawmaker Quang Nguyen in a racist manner.

 

While the Maricopa County soap opera should probably be aired on a Phoenix TV station, but as this one is only a call for "bar discipline" aired on a relatively small TV station.  Like the one station in Prescott.

While I'm hardly a fan of Rep. Nguyen (he's a Trumpian wingnut), he's nowhere near as bad as David Stringer, who is (allegedly) Trumpian in his own way.

Plus, he's a hardcore bigot.

However, Stringer may have some allies in the state legislature.  Nguyen's LD1 seatmates in the AZ legislature are Rep. Selina Bliss and Sen. Mark Finchem.

The Epstein files are dividing the AZGOP. They shouldn't.

Part of my Sunday routine is to watch Sunday Square Off on Phoenix Channel 12 (KPNX).

Yes, I'm a politics geek.  :)

Today, there was a segment on how the Epstein files (which are expected to name Cheeto as a pedophile) are dividing some of the AZGOP's electeds - some hope that they're never released, some want to see what's in the files, and still others are remaining silent, perhaps hoping that they are forgotten.

Pro tip: they won't be.

Anyway, I'm an unabashed Democrat (surprising, I know :) ) and I want the files to be released.

Regardless of who is named in them.

If a prominent D is named, so be it.

And therein lies one of the differences between Democrats and Republicans.

If we're presented with facts that we don't particularly like, most Democrats will embrace the facts.

Most Republicans will embrace the pedophile.

Legislative schedule - week starting 8/3/2025

There's absolutely nothing on the legislative schedule at this point.

That may change, so keep an eye out, but as it's August, I don't expect that to change.

Time to start a new soap opera: As Maricopa County Turns

I was feeling generous when I named this post - it was almost "Search for Competence."

But I didn't go there. :)

MAGA Republican Justin Heap won the R primary for Maricopa County Recorder in 2024, deposing competent incumbent Stephen Richer.

The MAGA types who make up the majority of the R electorate got what they wished for - a pure ideologue in a job that requires simple competence.

Sometimes he's falsely telling voters that they will be removed from the list of active voters and be unable to vote.

Sometimes he's suing the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors (MCBOS) not delegating control of elections to him.

Before he went the litigation route, Heap tried lying to and about members of the MCBOS.

From Votebeat Arizona, written by Jen Fifield -

Text messages show how Maricopa County recorder pressured supervisors for control of elections

Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap privately pleaded with two county supervisors to support his bid for more power over the county’s elections, text messages obtained by Votebeat show.

The messages, which county supervisors provided to Votebeat in response to a public-records request, include previously unreported behind-the-scenes conversations and confrontations as Heap negotiated with the supervisors board early this year over how to divide election duties in the closely watched swing county.

“I really thought you guys would come through for me,” Heap wrote to Supervisor Mark Stewart, a fellow Republican, in March after a counterproposal from the supervisors. “This was the last straw for me, Mark.”

[snip]

Texts provided by Stewart and Lesko, both Republicans, show how Heap pressured them to go around Supervisors Chairman Thomas Galvin, the Republican leading the negotiations with Heap, and instead work with the lone Democrat on the board, Steve Gallardo, to approve the elections agreement he wanted.

According to the texts, Heap said he had gained Gallardo’s support for the deal, known as a shared services agreement, or SSA.

[snip]

Gallardo told Votebeat that he never agreed to support Heap’s proposal, and called the claim “total lies.” He said he has met with or spoken with Heap and his staff only once in an introductory meeting after Heap took office, and they did not discuss the shared services agreement.

Gallardo went a step further. 

Also from Votebeat and written by Fifield -

Democratic Maricopa County supervisor calls for corruption investigation into recorder

Maricopa County Supervisor Steve Gallardo is calling for a public-corruption investigation into the Republican county recorder, Justin Heap, citing a claim Heap made about him in text messages while privately lobbying supervisors to give him more control over elections.

In the texts, which the supervisors released to Votebeat after a public-records request, Heap asserted that he had secured Gallardo’s vote on his proposal for a shared services agreement, or SSA, outlining a new division of election duties. Gallardo, the lone Democrat on the supervisors board, says that didn’t happen.

In a statement Wednesday, Gallardo said he wants Attorney General Kris Mayes to “get to the bottom of this outrageously false claim.”

Whoever has the popcorn concession at MCBOS meetings will get rich.

Q2 reports are in! Redux.

Last week, I published a post about the campaign reports for federal candidates.

Today, it's the turn for state-level candidates.

Some caveats:

It's still very early, so this only includes candidates who formed committees with the AZSOS before the Q2 2025 deadline (6/30/2025).  Candidates who haven't yet formed a committee or formed one in Q3 aren't covered here.  This also isn't comprehensive - I included only people who I believed are legitimate candidates.  That may...OK, *will*…change as the cycle goes on.

This isn't meant to predict who will actually be on a ballot.

Nor is it meant to predict who will win any primary.

Some definitions:

COH = Cash on Hand

SOI = Statement of Interest

NA = "No activity" report filed

Some of this is interesting -

In the hotly-contested R primary for governor, Karrin Taylor Robson wildly out raised her main opponent in Q2, Andy Biggs.  Apparently.  However, she loaned her campaign the majority of the funds she raised.  While her overall number is more than $2 million greater than Biggs', her funds raised from non-candidate sources was a little less than $150K more than Biggs.

Another red flag for Robson?  Her loans greatly exceed her cash on hand.  She looks like she is trying to buy the nomination.

In the race for the soon-to-be-vacant Arizona State Treasurer slot (incumbent Kimberly Yee is termed out), R candidate Elijah Norton (formerly the treasurer for the Arizona Republican Party and a 2022 candidate in AZCD1) loaned his campaign his ENTIRE Q2 fundraising take.  

Like Robson, he appears to trying to buy the election.

Legislative schedule - week starting 7/27/2025

There's no legislative activity scheduled to take place at the Capitol, but there is one committee meeting scheduled in Payson.

Can you say "Taxpayer-funded road trip"?!?

On Monday, 7/28 - nada.

On Tuesday, 7/29 

-

Fire Preparedness Committee House Ad Hoc meets at 10 a.m. at Gila Community College - 201 N. Mud Springs Rd, Payson, AZ 85541.  On the agenda: presentations from the Department of Forestry and Fire Management and SRP.  

In AZ, old politicians don't go away, the just swap seats

From Arizona Agenda, written by Nicole Ludden and Hank Stephenson

Chandler’s Freaky Friday

As we continue to reel from the 2024 elections, Arizona’s politicians are already eyeing their 2026 prospects.

While most of Arizona’s lawmakers are running for reelection, the three spots opening up in one district have turned into a game of musical chairs.

In fact, by the time 2027 rolls around, none of the state legislators representing the Chandler-based Legislative District 13 will hold their current offices.

Instead, Republican Rep. Jeff Weninger is running to be the next Chandler mayor. Chandler Mayor Kevin Hartke is running for Weninger's seat at the Capitol. And LD13’s other legislators are leaving the office or switching chambers.

As of this writing, neither Hartke (with the AZSOS) nor Weninger (with the City of Chandler) have formed committees for their run, however, Hartke has filed a Statement of Interest with the AZSOS for a run at LD13 State Representative -

Actually, the only person who has formed a committee for LD13 State Rep is Democratic candidate Raquel Armstrong.

It's still very early, though.

LD13 is considered to be "competitive" but leaning R - the district's current legislative delegation is all R.

The concept of swapping seat is not new, but is usually limited to changing chambers at the lege to avoid running afoul of term limits and to extend their time at the Capitol.

For instance, John Kavanagh, a Republican from Fountain Hills and member of the Arizona State Senate, is on his third district at the lege (LDs 8, 23, and 3), even though he hasn't actually moved.  He's been in both the house and the senate representing north Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, and Rio Verde since 2007.

Legislative schedule - week starting 7/20/2025

Now that the legislature has adjourned, there isn't much going on down there, but there a little bit going on this week.

OK, just a little bit. :)

On Monday, 7/21 

-

At 9 a.m. Joint Legislative Audit Committee meets in HHR1.  On the agenda: three presentations, one of which involves ESAs (school voucher scam).  One portion will be given by the state's office of the Auditor General (controlled by the ESA enablers in the legislature) and the other portion will be given by the Arizona Department of Education (headed by ESA apologist Tom Horne).

It doesn't seem to be unreasonable to expect an ESA propaganda session.

Q2 reports are in!

At least they are for federal candidates, candidates for AZ offices have an extra week to file reports.

Some caveats:

It's still very early, so this only includes candidates who formed committees with the FEC before the Q1 2025 deadline (6/30/2025).  Candidates who haven't yet formed a committee or formed one in Q2 aren't covered here.

This isn't meant to predict who will actually be on a ballot.

Nor is it meant to predict who will win any primary.

Listed dates of formation are from the FEC.

Some definitions:

COH = Cash on Hand

SOI = Statement of Interest

CD7 will be ignored until Q4 2025 as they just completed a special primary election and are going into a special general election.  This is about 2026.

Adelita Grijalva laps the field in AZ CD7

Note: The final numbers may change as votes are counted but the results won't.

All numbers are from the website of the Arizona Secretary of State.

Grijalva received 33,528 votes. The next closest Democratic candidate was Deja Foxx with 11,463 votes. A total of 54,159 votes in the Democratic primary.

Not only did Grijalva receive well more than half of the votes cast in the D primary, she received more two times votes in the D primary than were cast in the entire R primary - 16,359.

Yes, CD7 is a fairly safe D district. :)

In my previous post, I made three predictions.

It turns out my prognostication abilities are less than stellar. :)

"The winner of the Democratic primary will be the candidate the one with the best ground game."

I don't know; it's not my district.

"The candidates who come in 2nd and 3rd in combination will garner more votes than the actual winner."

Completely wrong.  It wasn't even close.

"One of them will mount a primary challenge in 2026."

It may still happen, but given the results of yesterday's election, it may not.  I do believe she'll face a primary credible primary challenge next year, as most first termers do, regardless of partisan affiliation.

AZCD7 has a special election tomorrow. Vote!

OK, most people have already voted by mail or early, but tomorrow is the final day for primary voting.

On the ballot:

Five Democratic candidates

Three Republican candidates

There are also:

One Libertarian write-in candidate

Two Green write-in candidates

One No Labels write-in candidate

However, they aren't actually on the ballot.

No predictions here - I'm not going to hazard a guess as to who is going to win any of the primary battles (it's not my district) nor will I even speculate whether one (or more) of the write-in candidates will receive enough votes to appear on the general election ballot.

Except for three rather non-specific predictions - 

The winner of the Democratic primary will be the candidate the one with the best ground game.

The candidates who come in 2nd and 3rd in combination will garner more votes than the actual winner.

One of them will mount a primary challenge in 2026.

Andy Biggs, doing AZ proud. Again.

The man who would be governor getting his hate on both for brown people and the judicial branch at the same time.

Maybe it's an attempt to show R primary voters that he's capable of multitasking.

From a post on Bluesky (because I refuse to link to Faux News if another option is available) -

Know what the greatest crime is in any religious sect/cult? Apostasy.

And that belief has come to AZ politics.

From Collins Dictionary -

If someone is accused of apostasy, they are accused of abandoning their religious faith, political loyalties, or principles.

In Mesa, there's going to be recall election targeting Julie Spilsbury, the District 2 member of the Mesa City Council.

From KJZZ, written by Camryn Sanchez -

Mesa sets Nov. 4 date for Turning Point-backed City Council recall election

Mesa will hold a recall election for Councilmember Julie Spilsbury on Nov. 4. New candidates can start filing for the seat in August.

Spilsbury was first elected in 2020 and represents District 2.

Mesa resident JoAnne Robbins filed a recall petition against Spilsbury in January for her votes on three issues. One allowed temporary homeless housing in a hotel. The others raised council salaries and utility rates and passed unanimously.

Recall elections are usually reserved for elected officials who are corrupt, otherwise engaged in criminal activity, or who are simply embarrassments to their constituents (that last doesn't happen often, so many electeds are somewhat brazen in their acts).

Spilsbury's "offense"?

Not worshipping at the altar of Dear Leader in 2024.

From later in the same story -

The recall effort is backed by the political arm of conservative nonprofit Turning Point USA.

“Stand with us for a stronger, more conservative Mesa!” said a Turning Point Action flier urging for Spilsbury’s recall.

Spilsbury is a Republican, and although city council is a nonpartisan office, she’s faced criticism for supporting former Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.

Spilsbury sat down with Mark Curtis of KPNX (Phoenix Channel 12) to talk about the recall.

Normally, at this point, I would advise people to get out their popcorn, because I think that Republicans eating their owned is very entertaining, in a popcorn-riffic way.

However, there is something I like more - elected officials who do their jobs.

And Spilsbury does hers.