Q2 Fundraising Figures - Federal

Notes:

This is NOT a comprehensive list.  As this is primary season, it mostly includes candidates in primaries of interest, though there is an exception to that (Ruben Gallego, I'm looking at you :) ).

Also, candidates who I don't believe have a snowball's chance in hell aren't included here.

Lastly, money is not votes.  A candidate with less cash on hand may defeat a candidate with more COH.

Federal numbers are taken from lines 11e, 13c, and 27 of candidate filings. Also, Q2 Money raised amounts do not include Q2 Loan totals (state-level numbers are different is this regard).

Have the echoes from the gunshots even faded away yet?

The fact that Cheeto is already sending out fundraising emails with imagery from yesterday's shooting doesn't do anything to dispel my cynicism.  

Not hardly.

Already received this, less than 24 hours after the shooting at one of his events -

At 3:11 p.m. on Saturday, shooting broke out at one of his events; at 2:19 p.m. on Sunday, I received the first of what I expect will be many fundraising emails from Cheeto.

23 hours and a few minutes?  Nice turnaround time on a weekend.

[edit on the same day to add]

At 5:43 p.m. I re-received the same email.

At 5:31 p.m. I received a slightly different email -

Yes, the full court press is on.

It turns out that I'm on some *interesting* email lists, and since I didn't sign up for them, I'm guessing that a list I did actually sign up for was sold.

[/end edit]

So long as the investigation is fair, honest, and open

Then let the chips fall where they may.

Of course, with Cheeto and his acolytes involved, it would be surprising if they allow the investigation to be any of those things.

First, the shooting at one of  Cheeto's events.

From ABC News -

Trump shooting live updates: Suspect's family is cooperating

Federal authorities are investigating after former president Donald Trump was shot in an assassination attempt at an election rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday.

Secret Service agents swarmed Trump and ducked behind the podium. Blood could be seen on his right ear of Trump as agents surrounded him and led him off the stage to a waiting vehicle to whisk him away.

Trump is "fine," a spokesperson said. The alleged shooter is dead. One spectator was killed and two were hurt, officials said.

I will say that it has been interesting to watch supporters of politically motivated violence to denounce politically motivated violence...that's directed toward the leading supporter of politically motivated violence.

They were OK with the assault on Nancy Pelosi's husband, shooting up a pizza shop based on fake news, the violent and deadly insurrection of January 6, 2021, the multiple threats to public officials over the 2020 election, and more.

On the other hand, shooting at Dear Leader?

They're not so OK with that.

The cynical portion of this post comes in two parts:

1. I don't believe it will be long before Cheeto or one of his campaign surrogates starts demanding that he be awarded a Purple Heart over yesterday's shooting.

2. I don't believe in coincidences.  The timing of this is fortuitous.

To say the least.

What can I say? I was bored.

This stemmed from indictments of people who are charged with defrauding AHCCCS.  I spent time looking for ties to sitting legislators.  I didn't find any (not saying there aren't any; I just didn't find them), but I thought there should be an easier way to do that...so I created a spreadsheet of the corporations and LLCs reported as owned by our 2024 state-level electeds and 2024 primary candidates for those offices, and the non-profits they report as being part of.  "Report" means that something was included on the financial disclosure reports they submitted to the Arizona Secretary of State.

What's not included:

License information

Spousal information

Gift information

Travel information

Bond ownership information

Compensation information

Membership on publicly elected boards, such as public school boards

Appeals Court judges (they have to file with the AZ SOS)

County judges (they have to file with the AZ SOS)

County court commissioners (they have to file with the AZ SOS).

Candidates from non-major parties

What is included:

Name of elected or candidate

Reported name of corp, etc.

Reported title/position at the organization (a blank in that field means nothing was reported)

What the person is currently (name of office held or a candidate for an office)

Date (of the signature on the FinDisc form)

Only the most current FinDisc form was looked at; some officeholders have been in office for many years and filed many forms. Also, current officeholders and members of the Arizona Supreme Court were included.  Federal officeholders/candidates don't have to file with the AZ SOS, so while Kari Lake's 2022 FinDisc is included (she ran for a state level office that year), Blake Masters' is not (he has only run for federal offices).  Abe Hamadeh filed too, but didn't report ownership of any corps or affiliations with any non-profits.

Things I learned from doing this:

Many legislators profit from real estate - some are licensed brokers, have rentals, are appraisers, or are otherwise profit from real estate-adjacent activities.  Also, many are attorneys.

Which goes a long way toward explaining why most legislative proposals benefit the real estate profiteer class and/or contain so many "poison pill" clauses that the measure has to be vetoed.

Also, most of the folks affiliated with legitimate non-profits are Democratic members/candidates (though it's not absolutely exclusive).  On the other hand, most of the folks affiliated with ideological non-profits are Republicans.

Lastly, the forms are very uninformative for those reading them and seem to be very confusing for those completing them.  Many officeholders did not report income from their offices yet many did.

Caveats:

It's possible, even likely, that I made one or more mistakes when compiling this.  Any errors were unintentional and will be corrected when brought to my attention.

Also, this list was utterly dependent on what was reported.  If something wasn't reported, it wasn't included.

 

Legislative schedule - week starting 7/14/2024

Nada, as in there is nothing scheduled at this point.

With their ruling in Trump v. USA, the U.S. Supreme Court has announced which dance move is sweeping America

At least, their immunity decision proclaims which is the go to dance move at Trump U Law School faculty mixers.

That move is the Abject Genuflect.

From Merriam-Webster -

Wonder if the majority on the Court realized that with their ruling creating an imperial presidency, they also created a paradox along the lines of "if God is all powerful, can he create a rock that's so heavy that he himself cannot lift it?"

Guessing that they did - they may be utterly without integrity, but none of them are utterly without intelligence.

The paradox is thus - If an entity created by a Constitution and given the authority to evaluate whether something adheres to that Constitution then declares that Constitution to be null and void, do they then retain the authority to render such a decision?

They'll say that they do, of course, but credibility counts, and they have none.

Primary ballots are in!

I received it on 7/5.

There aren't many races on the Democratic side.  As you can see. :)

The big one on my ballot is the six-way race in CD1 for a chance to take on Republican David Schweikert in the general election.

Being a former Republican isn't a dealbreaker for me (the Republican Party has gotten so extreme [and anti-society] that any member of the GOP who's even within sniffing distance of being a decent human being has left it.)

Being a former supporter of Jan Brewer isn't quite a dealbreaker, either.  Much closer, though.  She was a profoundly lousy governor.

Being someone who voted for Cheeto *is* a dealbreaker, though.  He was and is a profoundly lousy human being and anyone who wants to be a member of Congress should be smart enough to see that.  And decent enough to be bothered by that.

Having said all of that, I will vote for a candidate in the primary, Kurt Kroemer.

On the other hand, I fully expect that whichever candidate emerges victorious from the primary will run as R-lite in the general.

Bottom line: we don't need a second iteration of Kyrsten Sinema in D.C. and I won't hold my nose when I vote, ever again.  I won't vote for Schweikert, but I may skip the race entirely.

Also, I expect that the candidate and certain party officers to be simply aghast to see an R-lite candidate lose to an R.  Yet again.

In the LD8 primary for state representative, I'll be voting for Juan Mendez and Brian Garcia.  

I've known Mendez for years and supported him in previous runs for office and he's done a good job in those offices.  I'm happy to vote for him again.

As for Garcia, I've never met him, but while I'm not a fan of endorsements, he's been endorsed by someone I respect greatly.

In the race for Arizona Corporation Commission, I have no opinion.  Three people, Joshua Polacheck, Ylenia Aguilar, and Jonathon Hill are on the ballot.

In the race for Maricopa County Sheriff, working for Joe Arpaio is a dealbreaker...in the primary.  Like Cheeto, Arpaio was and is a profoundly lousy human being.

As such, I'll be voting for Tyler Kamp.

If he makes it though the primary, though, Russ Skinner will get my vote in the general.  The Republican candidates are all running on a platform of "I'm more like Joe than thou."

I expect my elected officials like county sheriff and county attorney to be seen and not heard.  By that, I mean that I should know nothing about them.

The former sheriff, Paul Penzone, was quiet.

When Arpaio was in office, the old joke was that the most dangerous spot to be in AZ was any place between him and a TV camera.

Legislative schedule - week starting 7/7/2024

Almost nada is scheduled.  The "almost" part will be pure propaganda though.

On Monday, 7/8  -

Legislative Council meets at 9 a.m. in HHR1.  On the agenda: no bills, but they will be considering the 14 measures that will appear on ballots in November.  Since the legislature put 11 questions on the ballot, I expect those to get a free pass.

The other three were put there by the public, so the Republicans in the legislature will get their hate on for them.

1099s or W2s: Which will the Cheeto Org give to the USSC justices who conferred immunity upon Dear Leader?

Or maybe they'll just award the justices knighthoods.

From The Guardian (UK) -

Sotomayor says immunity ruling makes a president ‘king above the law’

In a stark dissent from the conservative-majority US supreme court’s opinion granting Donald Trump some immunity from criminal prosecution, the liberal justice Sonia Sotomayor said the decision was a “mockery” that makes a president a “king above the law”.

The court ruled Monday that Trump cannot be prosecuted for “official acts” he took while president, setting up tests for which of the federal criminal charges over his attempt to subvert the 2020 election are considered official and sending the case back to a lower court to decide.

“Today’s decision to grant former Presidents criminal immunity reshapes the institution of the Presidency,” Sotomayor wrote in dissent. “It makes a mockery of the principle, foundational to our Constitution and system of Government, that no man is above the law.”

The U.S. Supreme Court, like all other courts, relies on moral credibility to buttress its decisions.

It has none.

Interestingly, the person helped most by this decision may be Joe Biden.  He's looking to win an election, not receive a coronation.

The best thing for Tim Stringham in his quest to be county recorder might be for Stephen Richer to lose in the Republican primary

Richer is the current Maricopa County Recorder.

I spent some time watching the R debate for Maricopa County Recorder, sponsored by the Citizens Clean Elections Commission and the Arizona Media Association.

Richer seems, well, "competent."

Justin Heap, a current state legislator, was simply a conspiracy theory-spouting hot mess.

However, the other R primary candidate, Donald Hiatt, made Heap seem polished and well-rounded.

During his opening statement, at the 6:04 mark, he conflated the Ten Commandments with the U.S. Constitution.

And things went downhill from there.

In his defense, he did frequently point out that he is not a politician.

It showed.

If R voters like vagueness, they'll vote for Heap or Hiatt.

Stringham is probably hoping they do.

Legislative schedule - week starting 6/30/2024

Nada.  As in there's nothing scheduled for this coming week.

To finish an open issue from last week's post, a court has sided with the governor and legislature and said they can use opioid settlement funds for non-opioid purposes.

The minds of most voters won't be changed by the presidential debate

This is a relatively quiet week in AZ politics - last week, the lege adjourned for the year and next week, primary ballots will start being mailed out, so this week, the most interesting thing in AZ politics will take place outside of AZ.

While he's not perfect, Joe Biden is a decent human being trying to do a thankless job.

The next time that Cheeto behaves like a decent human being will be the first time.

Both things are well-known to their supporters and detractors, and the people who have decided to vote for either won't change that decision, even after the debate.

Biden's supporters (and I'm one) care about the character of their elected officials while Cheeto's supporters don't.

My guess is that won't change, so both will try to appeal to the folks who are undecided.

Only four questions remain.

Those questions (with my answers in parentheses) -

1. Will Cheeto moon the audience (maybe)?

2. If he does that, will his supporters swoon (yes, of course)?

3. If he does that, will the people on his shortlist for VP candidates throw elbows at each other in an effort to put themselves in a position to enthusiastically kiss what was presented to them (yes, of course)?

4. Will Cheeto enter the stage to the strains of Cult of Personality by Living Colour (not unless I'm put in charge of the candidates' entrance music and I can secure the rights to play the music, and can obtain them on short notice)?

The debate will be broadcast by CNN.  However, for those who, like me, don't have cable, it will be simulcast on many over-the-air outlets.

FWIW, I think that Biden will win the election.  I don't have any great political insight to share, but Biden is the answer to one very important question.

Who would you rather have a beer with?

Biden would ask "draft, can, or bottle"?

Cheeto would ask if the container has his image on it (and if he was getting a percentage)?

Dear Alex: Don't let the door hit you in ass on the way out

Normally, this is a political, not a sports, blog, but since the Coyotes saga involves an election, the story is political-adjacent.  Plus, I was into hockey long before I was into politics.

From KXNV (Phoenix channel 15), written by Tannya Barba -

REPORT: Alex Meruelo stopping his attempts to bring 'Coyotes' NHL team back to the Valley

Alex Meruelo is reportedly stopping his efforts to bring an NHL team under the Coyotes name back to the Valley, according to NHL insider Craig Morgan.

Meruelo was expected to be one of several bidders eyeing the land near Scottsdale Road north of Loop 101 as a new home for the Coyotes. However, that land auction was put on pause recently by the city, with no rescheduled date in the near future.

Meruelo tried to scam gain the cooperation of the voters of Tempe, but they wanted no part of it.

Meruelo still has some influence over professional hockey in Arizona - he owns the Tucson-based franchise in the minor league American Hockey League, the Tucson Roadrunners.

As of yesterday, the Roadrunners will remain in Tucson, but that's subject to change..

Legislative schedule - week starting 6/23/2024

The AZ Legislature has passed a balanced budget* and adjourned sine die, and Gov. Hobbs signed the budget package into law.

* = Sort of.  They used some earmarked funds, monies that were earmarked for one purpose but taken by the legislature and used for a different purpose.  As some folks objected and sued over that, the "balanced" part will depend on the outcome of that court case.

The creative reuse of those funds has been blocked, pending that case.

From AZ Mirror, written by Jim Small -

Judge blocks use of opioid settlement money to balance Arizona’s budget deficit

A judge on Thursday blocked the transfer of $115 million from the state’s share of the national opioid settlement that legislators approved less than a week ago as a key component of balancing a nearly $1.4 billion budget deficit.

The court stepped in after Attorney General Kris Mayes, who was sharply critical of the proposed transfer when it emerged late last week and said it would violate the terms of the settlement, filed a lawsuit earlier in the day and asked for a judge to take emergency action.

[snip]

Late Thursday, Maricopa County Superior Court Commissioner Mary Cronin agreed that Mayes was likely to win her lawsuit and issued a temporary restraining order, blocking the transfer. The restraining order will stay in place until July 5. On June 27, Mayes and the Hobbs administration will have a hearing in front of Judge Scott Minder to discuss the underlying lawsuit.

The case in question is CV2024-016033

In short, depending on the ruling in the case, the legislature may have to return to the Capitol to balance the budget .

But without stealing money.

One thing I expect that they won't do:  rein in the budget busting school voucher grift.

Right now, there isn't much on tap at the Capitol.

Monday, 6/24 thru Thursday, 6/27 - Nada

Friday, 6/28 

-

Joint Legislative Ad Hoc Study Committee on Water Security meets at 1 p.m. in HHR1.  On the agenda: a raft of industry presentations saying basically the same thing - any water conservation measures will reduce their short term profits.

Louisiana enacts a law requiring schools to display the 10 Commandments

Or, as I refer to it, an "Attorney Full Employment Act."

From CNN -

Louisiana classrooms now required by law to display the Ten Commandments

Louisiana public schools are now required to display the Ten Commandments in all classrooms, after Republican Gov. Jeff Landry signed the requirement into law Wednesday.

House Bill 71, approved by state lawmakers last month, mandates that a poster-size display of the Ten Commandments with “large, easily readable font” be in every classroom at schools that receive state funding, from kindergarten through the university level.

House Bill 71 in Louisiana was sponsored State Rep. Dodie Horton; while it was passed by the legislature and signed in law by the governor there but a different bill here experienced a different fate.  State Sen. Anthony Kern's SB1151, doing pretty much the same thing,  was vetoed by Governor Hobbs

Both Horton and Kern are listed as members of the State Freedom Caucus Network -

Kern and Horton have a bit of a history.  In 2015 or 2016 both signed on to an amicus brief supporting a Texas law restricting access to abortion.

From the amicus brief, courtesy ScotusBlog -

Also, in 2018, both received  money from the Koch brothers.

From Sourcewatch -

My only question is this:

So how long before Kern proposes a bill making Arizona part of western Louisiana?