And the first one out of the gate for 2024 is... (for an AZ seat in Congress, anyway)

Horne is a dentist and is running for the seat in CD1, currently held by David Schweikert.

October surprises can happen, even to candidates in downballot races

 ...though one usually doesn't happen because of the candidate's own behavior - during the campaign.

From ABC15, written by Hector Gonzales - 

Candidate for Maricopa Co. Community College District seat arrested for public sexual indecency

A candidate for a Maricopa County Community College District seat was arrested for alleged public sexual indecency.

On October 4, an officer with the Maricopa County Colleges Police Department observed a pickup truck in the parking lot at Rio Salado College Surprise.

According to a police report, when the officer approached the front passenger door window he witnessed Randy Kaufman touching himself inappropriately.

[snip]

The Republican Party of Arizona released the following statement:

Every American citizen has the right to fair treatment throughout the judicial system. The Republican Party of Arizona respects due process and the Consitution {sic}. We support Mr. Kaufman's decision to suspend his campaign.

If the AZGOP truly respected the Constitution, they'd spell it correctly.

Of course, if they truly respected the Constitution they'd respect things conducted under it, like elections.

He was running for an at-large seat on the governing board of the Maricopa County Community College District.

From the list of candidates published by the Maricopa County Elections Department -

Cash on hand numbers are in - Statewide edition

Courtesy the Arizona Secretary of State -

* = incumbent

Only major party ballot candidates are included.

And this only includes numbers reported by the candidates themselves and doesn't include spending by PACs and dark money groups, of which their has been a lot of already.

Cash on hand numbers are in - Federal edition

Courtesy the FEC -

* = incumbent

Only major party ballot candidates are included.

And this only includes numbers reported by the candidates themselves and doesn't include spending by PACs and dark money groups, of which their has been a lot of already.

Sinema's number is included just for giggles - she isn't up for re-election this time.

Federal Committee update

I didn't expect to have to do one of these posts so late in the cycle, but, thanks to Ms. Garcia, one is necessary.  With early ballots hitting mailboxes in a few weeks, I don't expect to have to do this again.  Of course, I've been wrong before. :)

Garcia is a Republican from Avondale who is mounting a write-in challenge to Congressman Raul Grijalva.

She filled out her FEC paperwork incorrectly, so this doesn't show as a candidate committee.

Primary early voting has started; Masters may have peaked at the right time...for an R primary

Pointed at this by RealClearPolitics.

From OH Predictive Insights -

AZ GOP SENATE RACE: Masters of His own Destiny

Masters on the Rise, Brnovich Loses Ground, Lamon Stays Competitive – 35% Still Undecided

Toplines and Crosstabs can be found here

As Arizona’s primary elections race towards us – and with early ballots beginning hitting mailboxes this week – the race to face Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly for a Senate seat just got more interesting. According to OH Predictive Insights’ (OHPI) latest statewide Likely GOP Primary Voter Poll, Blake Masters has reared his head as the new frontrunner in Arizona’s GOP Senate Primary.

This AZPOP was conducted from June 30th – July 2nd, 2022 and surveyed 515 Arizonans qualified as likely GOP primary voters, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 4.3%.

Guessing that the Kelly campaign team is studying their oppo research on Masters right about now.

State Committees update

I was going to refer to this as a federal committee update as both are registered with the IRS (which is how they came to my attention). but neither is registered with the FEC and both are registered with the Arizona Secretary of State.

As such, this is a State Committees update.

Silvey is running as a write-in candidate in the R primary for State Senate in LD5.

From the website of the AZSOS -

Disclosure time: I live in LD5, and will NOT be voting for either R write-in candidate. :)

I generally don't cover PACs here, but this one contains contains a blast from the past.

The treasurer of the PAC, Heather Carter, is a former state legislator (2013-2021) and currently a yoga instructor.  And always a Republican.

My guess, given the date of formation of the committee, is that it is going to disburse money in the R primary.

From the IRS' website, for both committees -

From the AZSOS' website, also for both committees -

State Committee update

From the website of the Arizona Secretary of State --

Both Heaton and Reid-Shaver are Libertarians, though neither listed a party.

As of this writing, there are no Libertarian candidates for Superintendent of Public Instruction, write-in or ballot, listed by the AZSOS, while there is one declared Libertarian candidate for Governor, write-in candidate Barry Hess.

Federal Committee update

From the website of the Federal Election Commission -

Democrat Grayson is running in CD8 against Debbie Lesko.  He reports an address in Apache Junction.  He has NOT filed as a write-in candidate with the Arizona Secretary of State.

Write-in candidates; the ADP shouldn't fall asleep on LD21.

Note: This post only covers write-in candidates in primary elections.  General election write-in candidates will be covered in a later post.

Winning a race as a write-in candidate for a top- or mid-ballot elected office in AZ is an almost impossible task (there are some down-ballot races like precinct committeeman races where write-ins have won), but it helps if the write-in candidacy is in a primary and no other candidate of the same party is on the ballot.

Even then, there are some high barriers to success for a write-in candidate - not only do they need to declare their candidacy for the votes they receive to count, the also have to receive the same (or more) number of  votes as they would have needed signatures to be on the ballot.

From ARS 16-645 -

E. Except as provided by subsection C of this section, a letter declaring nomination shall not be issued to a write-in candidate of a party qualified for continued representation on the official ballot unless the candidate receives a number of votes equivalent to at least the same number of signatures required by section 16-322 for nominating petitions for the same office.

On to the declared candidates.

For Federal office -

DiSanto is an RN, and as there are other folks on the ballot, I think she's got a snowball's chance in hell of winning the primary.  She's also the only Democrat on this list.

Callan formed a committee in March...for a run at Senate.

I may not like Biggs (Shocking, I know.  I thought I was hiding it *so* well. :) ), but he's on the ballot.  He's going to win this primary.

Reetz offers a rather generic website and as there are others on the ballot, he's another one with a snowball's chance in hell of winning.

I've already discussed Harper's candidacy.  He's not going to win.

For Statewide office -

Finerd was a 2020 write-in candidate for Arizona Corporation Commission.  The people on the ballot who lost that race received 1.3 million or more votes.  He received 232.

I'm going to assume that both Hess and Kielsky will receive the number of votes in the primary election to be the Libertarian Party's nominee in the general election.  So?

The next time a Libertarian Party candidate wins a general election here will be the first time.

Asch is a licensed nurse.

For Legislative office -

Don't ignore LD21.  The Rs running as write-in candidates there are unopposed in the primary so if the winners there receive the required minimum number of votes, they'll be on the general election ballot.

In 2010, Don Shooter was an unopposed write-in candidate for a legislative seat.

He won in the general election.

That didn't end well.

Blast from the past: Jack Harper is back

Like a bad case of dandruff, he just won't go away.

This time, he's running as a write in candidate in Congressional District 9.

From the website of the Arizona Secretary of State -

Harper adds a "special" kind of classy to the race against Paul Gosar.

In a race with the hardcore bigot/Russia invasion lover (Gosar), the subject of a criminal indictment (Dowling), a former employee of former Congressman Trent Franks (Kutz - from the Government Printing Office - 

), and, of course, Harper, the other person running in the R primary, as no Democrat is on the ballot in CD9, Adam Morgan may be the "least bad" option

Of course, it's been nearly 10 years since Harper was in the state legislature, but he hasn't become a better person.  Or updated his wardrobe, apparently.  

The picture that he submitted to the AZ SOS -

Ya know, of course, what's next, don't you? Contraception. UPDATED

Republicans have often been accused of wanting society to be returned to the '50s.

That seems to mean the 1950s, when coat hangers, lynchings, fire hoses, and other tools of oppression that Rs liked were ever present.

From Dillon Rosenblatt of the Arizona Mirror -

GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters wants to allow states to ban contraception use

After the U.S. Supreme Court overturns women’s constitutional right to abortion this summer, one Arizona Republican candidate for U.S. Senate thinks judges should also take aim at the right to buy and use contraception.

Blake Masters, a Tucson-based venture capitalist, boasts on his website that he will only vote to confirm federal judges “who understand that Roe and Griswold and Casey were ongly decided, and that there is no constitutional right to abortion.” Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, decided in 1973 and 1992, respectively, both upheld a constitutional right to abortion access.

But the ruling in Griswold v. Connecticut in 1965 protected a married couple’s right to buy and use contraceptives without government restrictions. The case centered on a Connecticut law that banned the use of contraceptives, which the court determined violated a married couple’s constitutional right to privacy, establishing the basis for the right to privacy with respect to intimate practices.

[snip]

President Donald Trump hasn’t yet endorsed an Arizona Senate candidate, but Masters is viewed as the favorite to receive his endorsement. His campaign is also being supported by his former boss and mentor, technology investor Peter Thiel, who is spending at least $10 million to bankroll a campaign to support Masters. Masters has already won the support of some extremist Republicans, most recently Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who spoke to a white nationalist conference earlier this year. Other media reports have noted his past praise for the Unabomber and Hermann Goering, one Hitler’s top military leaders and one of the most prominent members of the Nazi Party.  

Mother Jones magazine offers its take here.

[Updated on 5/8 to edit]

Well, that didn't take long.

From The Daily Beast -

Jake Tapper Grills Mississippi Guv: ‘Are You Going to Force’ Pregnancy on Incest Victims?

The CNN anchor also pressed Reeves on whether the state of Mississippi would outlaw and criminalize emergency contraceptives and IUDs.

CNN anchor Jake Tapper repeatedly confronted Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves on Sunday over that state’s trigger laws that will snap into effect if and when Roe v. Wade is overturned, pressing the Republican on forcing women to carry pregnancies resulting from incest to term.

Following the bombshell leak of a majority Supreme Court draft opinion that would strike down the landmark 1973 decision that established a federal right to abortion, much attention has focused on conservative-led states’ legislation that will automatically take effect if it is nullified. Mississippi, like many other Southern and Great Plains states, has a so-called “trigger law” that would effectively ban abortion right away, providing exceptions for rape and if the life of the mother is at risk.

[snip]

Eventually, Tapper turned his attention to Republican-led states seeking to potentially outlaw and criminalize the use of contraceptives because they are defining the moment of conception as fertilization. Louisiana, for instance, is considering a bill that would classify abortion as homicide—which could also conceivably include the use of emergency contraceptives and IUDs.

“So, I’m not making this up,” Tapper stated after flagging the potential Louisiana law. “These are the conversations going on in legislatures in your area. But just to be clear, you have no intention of seeking to ban IUDs or Plan B?”

Reeves wouldn’t fully take that possibility off the table.

“That is not what we are focused on at this time,” he responded. “We’re focused on looking at, seeing what the court allows for; the bill that is before the court is a 15-week ban. We believe that the overturning of Roe is the correct decision by the court. And so in Mississippi, we don’t have laws on the books that would lead to arresting individuals or anything along those lines.”

[/end edit]

Federal Committee update

From the website of the Federal Election Commission -

Democrat Garcia Ramos is running for a seat in Congress -

Statewide candidate reports are in

Only candidates who have submitted signatures to be on the ballot appear here.

The numbers below are based on candidate-reported numbers only from their Q1 reports).

All candidates for Corporation Commission are running as Clean Elections candidates, though only Lauren Kuby has received CE funding so far (not to worry Republicans - I'm sure that Pinnacle West/APS will fall back on their old habits and spend lots of money to get the R candidates elected).

Two candidates for Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent Democrat Kathy Hoffman and Republican Shiry Sapir,  are running as CE candidates and have received funding.

Republican Michelle Udall has yet to file a Q1 report.

Many candidates have loans to themselves; while not all such candidates are Republicans, the vast majority are, and *all* candidates who have loaned their campaigns more than $400K are.

Federal Committee update

From the website of the Federal Election Commission -

Republican Dowling, a disgraced former Maricopa County Schools superintendent is running for the Congressional seat in CD9 against Paul Gosar.  No Democrat has submitted nominating signatures for the race.

I have previously written about Dowling's husband, Dennis, and his quest for a school board seat in spite of his primary qualification being his obtaining an advanced degree from a degree mill.

State Committee update

From the website of the Arizona Secretary of State -

Paperman is a current member of the governing board of the Deer Valley Unified School District and is *not* listed as one of the candidates who has submitted signatures to appear on the ballot.

Her website indicates that she's a Republican.

Federal Committee update

From the website of the Federal Election Commission -

Democrat Anderson is running the CD6 seat in Congress and has submitted signatures to be on the ballot.

From the website of the Arizona Secretary of State - 

Democratic candidates on the ballot but not facing a primary contest

In lieu of a committee update (whether or not someone may have formed a committee, unless they're on a ballot, it's irrelevant), I'll be discussing Democratic candidates who don't face primary contests; most will go on to face Republican candidates in November.  A few, by virtue of facing no other candidates in either the primary election or the general election, are presumed to be already elected*.

*Subject to change based on legal challenges and/or write in candidates.

I make no predictions concerning the outcome of pending litigation, and while write-in campaigns are tough to win (to appear on a general election ballot, not only does a write-in candidate have to win their primary, they must receive a number of votes equal to or greater than the quantity of nominating signatures they would have needed to present to have their name on the primary ballot), it *has* been done.

The Arizona Secretary of State has a list of candidates who have submitted signatures; federal, statewide, legislative.

AzBlueMeanie at Blog for Arizona has a full list of federal candidates here and a full list of state-level candidates here.

Jim Small at the AZ Mirror also has a full list of candidates here.

The map of the new congressional districts is here.

The map of the new legislative districts is here.

Caveat: I live in CD3 and LD5.

Caveat2: When candidates' names are linked to websites, most of those came from AZSOS information.

Federal candidates:

Mark Kelly, U.S. Senate, incumbent

Tom O'Halleran, Congress CD2, incumbent

Ruben Gallego, Congress CD3, incumbent

Greg Stanton, Congress CD4, incumbent

Javier Ramos, Congress CD5

Raul Grijalva, Congress CD7, incumbent

Statewide candidates:

Kris Mayes, Attorney General

Martin Quezada, Treasurer

Kathy Hoffman, Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent

Sandra Kennedy, Corporation Commission, incumbent

Lauren Kuby, Corporation Commission

(no primary as both will go on to the general election to face the winners of the R primary)

Legislative candidates:

Mike Fogel, State Senate LD1

Thomas Dugger, State Senate LD3

Christine Marsh, State Senate LD4, incumbent

Theresa Hatathlie, State Senate LD6, incumbent, faces no Rs in the general

Kyle Nitschke, State Senate LD7

Juan Mendez, State Senate LD8

Eva Burch, State Senate LD9

Mitzi Epstein, State Senate LD12, not an incumbent senator, but she is a member of the legislature

Taylor Kerby, State Senate LD16

Mike Nickerson, State Senate LD17

Sally Gonzales, State Senate LD20, incumbent, faces no Rs in the general

Rosanna Gabaldon, State Senate LD21, incumbent, faces no Rs in the general

Brian Fernandez, State Senate LD23

Raquel Teran, State Senate LD26, incumbent, faces no Rs in the general

David Sandoval, State Senate LD28

Cathy Ransom, State Representative LD1

Neil Sinclair, State Representative LD1

Since two candidates will be elected to the state house from each district, races with only one or teo Democrats with be considered as "no primary" and will be listed here without a further note.

Judy Schwiebert, State Representative LD2, incumbent

Laura Terech, State Representative LD4

Melody Hernandez, State Representative LD8, incumbent

Athena Salman, State Representative LD8, incumbent

Lorena Austin, State Representative LD9

Seth Blattman, State Representative LD9

Helen Hunter, State Representative LD10

Jennifer Pawlik, State Representative LD13, incumbent

Brandy Reese, State Representative LD14

Keith Seaman, State Representative LD16

Dana Allmond, State Representative LD17

Brian Radford, State Representative LD17

Sanda Clark, State Representative LD19

Andres Cano, State Representative LD20, incumbent, faces no Rs in the general

Alma Hernandez, State Representative LD20, incumbent, faces no Rs in the general

They *do* face a Libertarian candidate in the general election, but the next time that a Libertarian wins an election will be the first time.

Jesus Lugo Jr., State Representative LD23

Mariana Sandoval, State Representative LD23

Stephanie Holbrook, State Representative LD28

Scott Podeyn, State Representative LD29

The list of Maricopa County candidates is here.

Julie Gunnigle is the only Democrat running for Maricopa County Attorney,

Federal Committee update (and State Committee update)

There's nothing to update here, as nominating signatures are due at the office of the Arizona Secretary of State on Monday.

I don't expect any new committees to be formed at this point, though after ballot candidates are finalized, a few may be.  Signatures can be collected without a committee, but funds cannot be raised or expended without one.

Some people, legislative candidates mostly, have qualified for the ballot already.  Statewide candidates here.  Legislative candidates here.

One Democratic candidate won't be submitting sigs.

From KJZZ -

Democratic Diego Rodriguez drops out of race for Arizona AG

Democrat Diego Rodriguez dropped out of the race for Arizona attorney general Friday, leaving former Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes as the only Democrat in the contest.

Rodriguez announced his decision days before the deadline to submit signatures to appear on the ballot. He did not give a reason but thanked his supporters and said in a statement, "I intend to remain a part of building a better Arizona."