Election Results 2024

When the Arizona Secretary of State and the Maricopa County Recorder post initial results, I'll post some of them here.  Those initial results will only be early ballots, and unless the total overwhelmingly favors one side, races won't be called by the MSM.

A few caveats:

1. They'll be AZ results only.

2. The list of races covered will NOT be comprehensive.  If readers want one added, particularly statewide or in Maricopa County, please leave a comment.

3. No state legislative races will be covered, but that may change as listed races go clearly in one direction or the and drop off my list.

4. My intent is to do an initial report and at or just after 9 (if totals change significantly) and the go to bed and pick it up tomorrow.

5. Reality may intercede and change any of this.

Short Attention Span Musing - mixed bag edition

Just a prediction, an observation, and some advice

First up,  the prediction, and NO, I'm not going to make a prediction about Tuesday's results.  I've already done that.

Nope, the prediction is this:

If Cheeto gains a 2nd term as POTUS, he'll only be president for 3-6 months before his VP, J.D. Vance, teaches him all about the Constitution.  

Not all of it, just the 25th Amendment to it.

Observation:  Aside from trumpkins and other bigots, the folks who are most in favor of a Cheeto victory on Tuesday may be the writers of fake news,  The writers for monologues for late night talk shows and shows like SNL's Weekend Update and /or The Daily Show will have nothing to do beyond putting Cheeto's blatherings to paper.  And the writers for Faux News and other conservative outlets will simply be in orgasmic bliss.

Advice, and it's given with the knowledge that it almost certainly won't be heeded: Democratic candidates should neither seek nor accept the endorsement of a police-affiliated organization.  Endorsements of groups of public employees may help.  If those employees are firefighters or teachers (especially in primaries).

Neither of those groups is known for assaulting and/or killing unarmed civilians.

An endorsement from a police organization may serve to suppress the vote of groups who would support Democratic candidates while not delivering the votes of every member of such an organization.

Secondary advice:  All campaigns should forget how to hit the "Send" on emails and mass texts.  Don't send 'em more than once per day.

I've already deleted 48 emails today (and that doesn't include the ones that went directly to my spam folder).  I don't know how many texts were sent to me today because I've had to block so many numbers.

And all of them can be summarized the same way:

Gimme.

I realize that the consultants hired by each campaign are looking only for their next paycheck and will highlight the number of messages they sent and not the number of potential voters for their candidates they turned off.

In other words, this will happen for the next few cycles (at least.)

Perhaps preparing for Election Day results, Republicans claim a loss is a victory

From NPR (emphasis added by me) -

Supreme Court sides with Democrats in Pennsylvania voting case

The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday left in place a lower court ruling that for now allows Pennsylvania voters to cast provisional ballots if their mail-in ballots have been invalidated.

Since 2019, all Pennsylvania voters have been able to cast ballots by mail, but to have their mail ballots counted, they have to follow strict rules laid out in the state election code. One of those rules requires voters to place their ballot into a “secrecy envelope” before placing it into the mailing envelope. Without the secrecy envelope, the ballot is considered “naked” and will not be counted.

[snip]

The voters sued, arguing that the Board of Elections was obligated to count their provisional ballots. The Republican National Committee and the Butler County Board of Elections countered that under the state election code provisional ballots cast by those whose mail ballots were received on time cannot be counted, even if the mail ballots were deemed invalid.

In a 4-3 decision, Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court sided with the voters. The court determined that a naked ballot is automatically void, meaning it was never received or counted by the Board of Elections. Under that logic, if the ballot was never received, a voter is eligible to cast a provisional ballot.

The Pennsylvania Republican Party and the RNC appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court to block the decision. They argued that the state supreme court's decision “dramatically change[d] the rules governing mail voting” and usurped the state legislature's role of regulating federal elections.

Yet, check out how a Republican Party news outlet like Fox News spins it, and compare their their headline to to NPR's.  Pic from Google News (again, emphasis added by me) -

Usually even Fox is a little more subtle about their lies.

If you're a woman and need healthcare, don't go to Texas

Or even be there.

Yet another reason for pro-choice folks to vote for Proposition 139...and for anti-choicers to rejoice.

From ProPublica -

A Pregnant Teenager Died After Trying to Get Care in Three Visits to Texas Emergency Rooms

It took three ER visits and 20 hours before a hospital admitted Nevaeh Crain, 18, as her condition worsened. Doctors insisted on two ultrasounds to confirm “fetal demise.” She’s one of at least two Texas women who died under the state’s abortion ban.

Candace Fails screamed for someone in the Texas hospital to help her pregnant daughter. “Do something,” she pleaded, on the morning of Oct. 29, 2023.

Nevaeh Crain was crying in pain, too weak to walk, blood staining her thighs. Feverish and vomiting the day of her baby shower, the 18-year-old had gone to two different emergency rooms within 12 hours, returning home each time worse than before.

The first hospital diagnosed her with strep throat without investigating her sharp abdominal cramps. At the second, she screened positive for sepsis, a life-threatening and fast-moving reaction to an infection, medical records show. But doctors said her six-month fetus had a heartbeat and that Crain was fine to leave.

Legislative schedule - week starting 11/3/2024

Nada, as in there is nothing scheduled at the legilature at this point.   

Election Day is Tuesday.

A candidate demonstrates that he's utterly unfit for office

...And for once, I'm not talking about Cheeto. 

From The White Mountain Independent, written Suzanne Adams-Okrassa -

Candidate for Navajo County Recorder cited in road rage incident

A candidate for the Navajo County Recorder’s Office was cited after an alleged road rage incident on Oct. 23.

According to Show Low Police reports, Timothy Jordan, 46, of Lakeside was cited for suspicion of disorderly conduct-noise, disorderly conduct with a weapon, false reporting to law enforcement and reckless driving.

I was going to specify to specify which party the candidate belongs to, but truth be told, his behavior  is unacceptable for anyone, regardless of partisan affiliation.  If a reader *really* must know it, Navajo County has a list of their county-level candidates here.

Of course, regardless of partisan affiliation, getting arrested just before an election is probably not a good idea.  Especially when the opposing candidate is also the incumbent.

Vince Leach believes that treaties, like promises, are made to be broken

Hey, at least he's a traditionalist.  

He wants to continue a craven tradition, but that's just a conservative value.

Historically, Native tribes and nations, by treaty, were herded onto lands called "reservations" that were usually the most barren, desolate, and worthless lands in a given area.

Until somebody wanted those lands and/or could profit from them.  Or it was simply convenient.

Then treaties were broken.

From KJZZ, written by Gabriel Pietrorazio -

Vince Leach floats making tribal land, water 'available' to Arizona amid bid for state Senate seat

Former President Donald Trump — and to some degree, Vice President Kamala Harris — have been on the campaign trail talking about federal land in Western states, including Arizona. The vast open tracts are seen as prime real estate that could help reduce a national housing shortage.

But one Republican candidate for state office has taken it a step further, promoting policy positions on land and water that would undercut tribal sovereignty.

At a candidate forum in the Picture Rocks community just south of Marana is where former state Sen. Vince Leach laid out his plan to address the affordable housing problem in Arizona, some 24 hours after he acknowledged Columbus Day.

“We got to work with the feds to get our land back. Give me my land,” Leach said during an event sponsored by the Citizens for Picture Rocks in Pima County. “We’ve got to open up more land.”

At least Leach has shown why the majority party in both the Arizona legislature and the US House should be changed.

And Election Day is next week.

President Joe Biden has a single word to describe Cheeto's supporters

Last week, I wrote a post describing Kari Lake and her surrogates as "despicable."

Biden may not have topped that, but he definitely belongs in the post.

From ABC News -

Biden suggests Trump supporters are 'garbage' after comic's insult of Puerto Rico

President Joe Biden took a swipe against Donald Trump's supporters as he reacted to the Republican presidential nominee's weekend rally at Madison Square Garden, which was overshadowed by crude and racist rhetoric.

In a call organized by the Hispanic advocacy group Voto Latino, Biden on Tuesday responded to a comic at Trump's rally who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.” Biden's initial comments were garbled.

“Just the other day, a speaker at his rally called Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage. Well, let me tell you something, I don’t, I don’t know the Puerto Rican that I know, the Puerto Rico where I’m fr -- in my home state of Delaware. They’re good, decent honorable people,” he said.

The president then added: “The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters. His demonization of Latinos is unconscionable, and it’s un-American. It’s totally contrary to everything we’ve done, everything we’ve been.”

Wonder if Cheeto realizes that some of the "garbage" in Puerto Rico may be the rolls from the paper towels he threw to the residents in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria?

The title of this post starts with the phrase "President Joe Biden".

That's a phase that guaranteed to piss off Cheeto and his supporters.

I'd say it's already starting, but this is a continuation

Yesterday, I wrote a post about how Cheeto's supporters are already getting violent.

Then another story broke.

From AP -

Fires set in drop boxes destroy hundreds of ballots in Washington and damage 3 in Oregon

Incendiary devices were set off Monday at two ballot drop boxes — one in Portland and another in nearby Vancouver, Washington — destroying hundreds of ballots in what one official called a “direct attack on democracy” about a week before a heated Election Day.

The early morning fire at the drop box in Portland was extinguished quickly thanks to a suppression system inside the box as well as a nearby security guard, police said, and just three ballots were damaged there.

But within a few hours, another fire was discovered at a transit center drop box across the Columbia River in Vancouver. Vancouver is the biggest city in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, the site of what is expected to be one of the closest U.S. House races in the country, between first-term Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Republican challenger Joe Kent.

January 6, 2025 should be interesting - the new Congress is scheduled to accept the election results then.

I expect lots of whining and some violence from Cheeto's supporters.

Cheeto hasn't even lost yet, but his supporters are already getting violent

My guess is that the insurrection of January 6, 2021 will seem like a high school pep rally whether or not Cheeto loses the election.

And I'm not even talking the burning of some ballots in a mailbox; subsequent news reports have indicated that the presence of early ballots in the conflagration  was a coincidence.  The person arrested for that looks to someone who's NOT political and just wanted to go back to prison.

From USA Today (article written before the other stuff came out) -

Electoral ballots damaged in Phoenix after someone set fire to a mailbox; arrest made

A suspect is in custody for allegedly burning 20 electoral ballots that were inside a mailbox in Phoenix, Arizona, on Thursday morning, the city's mayor and police said.

Dieter Klofkorn, 35, is accused of igniting a fire in a mailbox at a U.S. Postal Office in the area of 7th Avenue and Indian School Road around 1 a.m., Phoenix police said in a news release.

Nope, I'm talking about other stuff.

From AZFamily (emphasis added by me -

Man punched election worker who told him to remove hat at voting site, police say

A Texas man who wore a hat supporting former President Donald Trump punched an election worker who told him that wearing items endorsing a candidate are prohibited at voting sites, a sheriff said Friday.

The election worker, identified as a 69-year-old man, was treated at the scene Thursday and returned to his election post at a San Antonio library on Friday, officials said. The suspect was arrested on felony charges of assaulting an elderly person and could face additional charges, Bexar County Sheriff Javier Salazar said.

[snip]

The suspect, identified as Jesse Lutzenberger, remained in jail Friday evening, according to Bexar County records. Jail records did not list an attorney and a phone number for Lutzenberger’s home could not immediately be found Friday.

Yet that wasn't the scariest, or the most craven, behavior engaged in by MAGA-its this week.  What's worse happened here in AZ.

From AZMirror, written by Jerod MacDonald-Evoy (emphasis added by me)

Phoenix man charged with shooting Democratic office had 250,000 rounds and a grenade launcher

In less than two weeks, Arizonans and the nation will decide the next president of the United States, but concerns about political violence leading up to and after Election Day has experts concerned, especially in light of revelations about a Phoenix man arrested Tuesday who authorities said was allegedly planning a “mass casualty” event in the state. 

Jeffrey Michael Kelly, 60, was arrested in connection to his alleged involvement in four separate incidents of political violence. Police have tied him to a series of shootings at a Democratic National Committee office in Tempe, as well as placing anti-Democratic signs with razor blades and bags of white powder attached to them in nearby Ahwatukee. 

During an initial appearance in Maricopa County Superior Court on Wednesday, the Maricopa County Attorney’s Office said that a search warrant of Kelly’s home found 120 guns, 250,000 rounds of ammunition, body armor and a grenade launcher. 

Prosecutors said that law enforcement believed that Kelly was leaving his home Tuesday to “potentially do something” and was preparing for a “mass casualty” event. At a press conference Wednesday afternoon, Tempe police would not elaborate on what led them to believe Kelly had larger plans, citing an ongoing investigation. 

 

Mr. Kelly has given money to Cheeto and other Republican causes and committees, including to Cheeto on 10/14, after the shootings he's been charged with.

The case number in Maricopa County Superior Court is CR2024-150570-001; the case history page is here.

I truly don't know when he was radicalized, but his anti-society attitude and behavior seems to be long-standing.

All I know is that elections officials here and all over the country have to use unprecedented security measures because the supporters of one candidate will violently object to any election results that they don't like.

She's baaaaack

During my "Predictions" post, I observed that Republican US Senate nominee Kari Lake was basically off the air and her last few ads were short and apocalyptic, strongly tying her to Cheeto.

Well, I saw one of her spots today. 

It was still short and apocalyptic; this one featured Cheeto disdainfully mispronouncing the last name of her opponent, Congressman Ruben Gallego.

My guess (and it's only that - this may shock some readers [or not :) ] but I'm not exactly a Lake campaign insider) is that she's hoarding her remaining funds to be expended during, and during the run up to, Election Day.  While early voting is very important, a significant number of votes will be cast then.

Legislative schedule - week starting 10/27/2024

As of this writing, there's only one meeting at the legislature scheduled for this week

On Monday, 10/28 and Wednesday, 10/30 and Thursday 10/31 - Nada.

On Tuesday, 10/29 -

Joint Legislative Ad Hoc Study Committee on Water Security meets at 1 p.m. in HHR1.  On the agenda: presentations and a discussion about active management areas (for water) and the assured water supply program.  Given that certain members of the committee are industry apologists (hey, it's nicer than referring to them as employees of industry lobbyists), I expect this committee, and the legislature as a whole, to protect industry interests.  Water for people?  Not as important as water for industry.

Predictions

Of course, these predictions  may be worth every penny you've paid for them. :)

There are certain (OK, "many") races not mentioned here.  Not mentioning them doesn't mean that I believe that they are unimportant or aren't hotly contested, just that I have no specific insight to offer on them

Let's start with the easy ones -

Kate Gallego wins another term as mayor of Phoenix.  This one is easy because she faces only token opposition in her race.

Ruben Gallego wins a term as US Senator.  His opponent, Kari Lake, is getting desperate and is running low on funds.  Her latest rhetoric has gotten very apocalyptic (she's essentially saying "Vote for me and Cheeto or else!") and her TV spots are much shorter (15 secs?).  Actually, that was over the weekend and on Monday.  On Tuesday and Wednesday: nada.

I expect Proposition 139 to pass, putting language in the state's constitution protecting one's ability to obtain an abortion.  Notwithstanding the objections of Cathi Herrod and her vassals in the state legislature, measures like this usually pass by a wide margin, even is the most conservative states.

I also expect Proposition 314 to pass, putting hate and bigotry into AZ law.

Lastly, I expect most of the other propositions put on the ballot by the legislature to go down in flames, though Proposition 311 (giving a stipend to the spouses and/or children of first responders killed in the line of duty) may garner enough "awwww, shucks" votes to pass.

A guess that's imprecise -

Maricopa County county-wide races favor Rs in terms of registrations, but the county recorder's race may go Democratic because most voters aren't conservative ideologues, and the R nominee is one.  Also, don't ignore the race for county attorney.  The R incumbent, Rachel Mitchell, is desperate enough to have an outside group running ads for her.  The D nominee, Tamika Wooten, is not desperate.

Guesses that I hope I'm wrong on (in different ways, though) -

Cheeto may win in AZ, though that race seems close enough that Harris may pull off an upset here.

Regardless, of what happens in AZ, he's on pace to lose the popular vote nationally for the third time in a row.

Got no predictions on individual legislative contests, though there is hope that this is the year that Democrats take control of one or both chambers or the lege.    I'm not going predict a change in the majority party there until there *is* one.  I hope there is one though.

Have no prediction on races for individual Maricopa County Supervisor slots.  The BOS currently has one Democrat and four Republicans among its membership of five.  That may go to two and three, respectively, but again, I'm not going predict a change in control here until there *is* one.

Now for one I don't have even a guess on -

Proposition 140, the jungle primary measure.  There are many disaffected voters in AZ, so it may pass, but I don't know if they'll feel that a jungle primary will solve their problem.  So it may not.

Noble Predictive Insights, a rightward tilting firm, has some insights on Maricopa County races here and statewide ballot measures here.  Their polling is relatively old (early September), but may offer some insight anyway.  We're less than two weeks away from the only poll that matters.

Statewide ballot measures, from the AZ Secretary of State, here.

Maricopa County candidate list, from the Maricopa County Recorder's Office, here.

State level candidate listing here, courtesy the AZSOS.

A single word can be sooooo descriptive

Both articles are from last week.

From MSNBC -

Kari Lake’s whiffed attack over Gallego’s divorce puts her campaign further in the gutter

Kari Lake’s last-ditch effort to slime Ruben Gallego in the lead-up to Election Day landed with a dud.

Lake had been hyping up an effort by The Washington Free Beacon, a right-wing media outlet, to pry loose documents related to Gallego’s divorce from his ex-wife, Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego.

Although the Gallegos have publicly been amicable since their split, Lake and other conservatives have homed in on the fact that their divorce came as Kate Gallego was pregnant, and the fishing expedition has seemed intent on finding details that could be used to sling mud at Gallego. Lake has run ads referring to Gallego as a “deadbeat dad” and last week promised that a “massive story” was on the horizon.

On the same topic, from KPNX (12 News Phoenix), written by Kevin Reagan -

Here's what we found in Ruben Gallego's divorce records

A heavily-redacted version of U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego's divorce papers released Thursday revealed little new information about the dissolution of his marriage to Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego.

After the Arizona Supreme Court denied a motion to keep the Gallego divorce records sealed, a 465-page document was published by Yavapai County Superior Court that included several redactions regarding how the Gallegos split custody of their son, how they split their assets, and their child support agreement.

 

I've got one word to describe the Gallego's divorce proceeding record -

Boring.

I've got one word to describe Kari Lake and her surrogates -

Despicable.

(That word was used by Tony Cani on KTVK's Politics Unplugged, but I was there even before I heard it from him.)

Is Congressman Eli Crane (R-Most of Northern AZ) in trouble?

From Inside Elections -

Arizona 2 Poll: Sleeper Race Awakens

Arizona voters already faced a gauntlet of competitive races this fall, from a toss-up presidential contest to a high-profile Senate race and two of the most expensive House races in the country.

But another election may be asserting itself in the closing weeks of the cycle, according to new polling by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections.

Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers much of the northeastern part of the state, has largely flown under the radar since Republican Eli Crane flipped the seat from Democrat Tom O’Halleran in 2022. While Crane made some headlines for his efforts in ousting House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, his re-election campaign has attracted little outside attention.

But the latest Inside Elections/NPI battleground House district poll suggests he is entering the final month of the election neck-and-neck with his Democratic opponent, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez.

[snip]

There are nine Congressional districts in Arizona; six are currently held by Republicans, three by Democrats.

I fully expect Biggs (R), Gosar (R), and Grijalva (D) to retain their seats; they're in districts where their party has an overwhelming advantage.. I expect Stanton (D) to retain his - the district he represents has a slight Republican advantage in voter registration numbers but that race is in a turnout district and the Democrats there do a far better turnout job.  Though they're newbies, I expect Ansari (D) and Hamadeh (R) to win their races as the districts they're running overwhelmingly favor their parties.

Two of the races, CD1's Schweikert (R) v. Shah (D) and CD6's Ciscomani (R) v. Engel (D) are currently held by Republicans, but those are actual contests - Schweikert is ethically challenged and Ciscomani is a first-termer in a district that, like Stanton's, slightly favors Rs in voter registration numbers but is a turnout district.

CD2's Crane (R) v. Jonathan Nez (D) should be added to the competitive list (to be fair, it probably should have been there all along).

Crane is a first-termer and is a stone cold bigot in a district with a large number of Native American voters.

Nez is a former president of the Navajo Nation.

Of the three races, I expect that one will go Democratic, hope that two will, and be (pleasantly) surprised if all three do.

I'm not going make any predictions in these races - at this point, it's all about the candidates and turnout efforts.