The surprise #1 candidate in Republican primaries this year? Barack Obama, of course.

Arizona's Republicans are offering some very "enlightening" primaries this year. 

They are educating people on exactly what they have to offer to Arizona.

Ever more negativity.

They are not running "for" Arizona or their intended district's constituents.

Nope, they are running "against" Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and even Nancy Pelosi. 

Mostly Obama, though.

The phenomenon isn't entirely unexpected in statewide races, because whether the races are high profile (i.e. - governor) or low profile (i.e. - Corporation Commission), most voters never really get to know the candidates.  Even the voters who try to become more informed about the candidates are still relatively "low information" voters.

Where it is surprising to see the attacks is against candidates who people in the relevant district *know*.

One example, from Laurie Roberts of the Arizona Republic -

It's no secret that dark-money forces across the state are using Barack Obama to scare off Republican voters from candidates they oppose.

{snip}

...[H]ands down, the scariest hide-the-children-it's-an-Obama-lover-in-GOP-clothing mailer is making the rounds in Scottsdale.

The Arizona Free Enterprise Club is attacking Republican Bob Littlefield, who is running for the House, along with Effie Carlson, Rep. Michelle Ugenti, Jay Lawrence.

"When he wanted Obamacare passed, he called upon his liberal allies in Congress," the ad says, next to the most sinister mug of Obama I've seen this campaign season. "And when he needs Obamacare funded in Arizona, he will call on liberal Bob Littlefield."

A picture of the mailer, also courtesy Roberts -

Bob Littlefield is a long-time member of the Scottsdale City Council and is very familiar to the people of Scottsdale.  This year, he is running for a seat in the state legislature in LD23, which is most of Scottsdale and all of Fountain Hills.

There is a four-way primary for two nominations and as there are no Democratic or Independent candidates, the two Republican nominees will become LD23's representatives in the legislature.

That means that the gloves are off in the primary.  There's no fear of nicking up a potential nominee so badly that he is too damaged to win the general election.

Since Littlefield seems to be leading, and certainly has the highest name recognition, the long knives are pointed straight at him.

The problem with their line of attack?

Bob Littlefield is as much a liberal as I am a Yankees fan (Hinting:  I grew up in MA.) (Saying it outright: Most assuredly *not* a Yankees fan).

What he is, however, is not "bay at the moon" crazy.  He genuinely seems to care about Scottsdale, and has supported, and likely will continue to support, proposals that will benefit his constituents, regardless of ideological orthodoxy.

He's also known for having a low tolerance for BS in general and "go along to get along" types.

All of which makes him, if not politically "likeable", at least worthy of some old-fashioned "respect".

You know, the kind that existed back when people were allowed to disagree with each other without being disagreeable.


Note: none of this is meant to constitute an endorsement.  I may live in Scottsdale, but this isn't my race.  I don't live in the LD23 part of Scottsdale; I live in one of the few precincts that is actually in LD24.

Which means that I can say proudly and loudly that my legislators are Sen. Katie Hobbs, Rep. Lela Alston, and Rep. Chad Campbell.

Not scuffing my toe, hanging my head, and mumbling "Sen. Michele Reagan, Rep. John Kavanagh, and Rep. Michelle Ugenti".


:)

Gaining no traction in the race for the R nomination for governor, Andrew Thomas gets his "mean and petty" on

From RealClearPolitics, a summary of polling data for the race for the Republican nomination for governor of AZ -

Obviously, there have been some shake ups in the race over time, and the pollster and the polling universe apparently make a difference in the results, but one thing has remained clear regardless of date, methodology or the conductor of the polls in question:

Andrew Thomas is well on his way to becoming just another electoral footnote (couldn't, and probably wouldn't, happen to a nicer guy).

So he has decided to attract some attention to himself (hey - it's working; I'm writing about him, aren't I? :) ) by publishing a "border plan" that can be best summed up as the "hate sampler" plan.

His "plan" is to mobilize 3000 members of the Arizona National Guard, build a fence along the border with Mexico or across the middle of the state (or both, that isn't really clear), cut funding for social safety net programs to pay for it all, roll back restoration of AHCCCS eligibility to levels previously approved by the voters of Arizona, conscript those people who still receive benefits from those programs into "community service" (his word; my word for it is "slavery"), and enact some unspecified "judicial reform" to rid him the state of "activist judges" (a group that the disbarred Thomas despises even more than he despises immigrants).

Kind of reminds me of 2010 when Barry Wong, then a Republican candidate for the Arizona Corporation Commission, looked at his poll numbers the R primary (perhaps not so coincidentally, at pretty much the same point in the cycle), and announced his plan to have utilities check the immigration status of their customers, and to have them shut off service to any customers who couldn't prove legal status.

The mean and petty turn by Wong didn't help - Wong came in third in the three-way race for the two nominations, by over 100,000 votes (in a race where 300,000 won a nomination).

Thomas may finish above last place in the six-way race that he finds himself in, but I expect that the candidate who finishes in third place will be looking down at Thomas.

In an R primary, "mean and petty" will *help* a candidacy (especially in a primary), but it won't *save* a candidacy (see: Wong's example).

The simple fact is that in AZGOP circles, "mean and petty" no longer stands out because almost all of their candidates go there.

Shamelessly and enthusiastically.

Fun with campaign signs: Hallman edition, chapter 2

Advice to politicos and would-be politicos:

When you are caught in some sort of misstatement and are being criticized, there are two viable options -

1. Fix the statement.

2. Ignore the criticism.


Whatever you do, however, don't double down.  That just gives your critics a 2nd bite at the apple.


To whit:

On Sunday, I posted about the campaign signs of Hugh Hallman, a Republican candidate for the office of Arizona State Treasurer.

His signs proclaim his focus on balancing the state's budget.

A few hours after putting up the post, Hallman (or someone from his campaign) tweeted a reply -

The reply didn't address the fact that the state treasurer has nothing to do with the state budget, but to be fair to him, I visited his website.  I wanted to see if the website, which can be updated/corrected far more readily than signs, showed that Hallman has a more realistic view of the duties of the office than his signs indicate.

The very front page of his website -

Soooooo...based on the "double down" strategy, I have to ask -

Is Hallman running for office or practicing for a Blackjack tournament?

Fun with campaign signs - Hallman Edition

Hugh Hallman, a former mayor of Tempe, is showing his "not ready for prime time" status with his current campaign signs.

This year, he's running for Arizona State Treasurer against two other Rs (no Democratic candidates are in the race, so that one will be decided in the R primary).

State treasurer is a low-profile position, so low profile that even knowledgeable activists don't know much about it.  And average voters?

They might know the job exists, but not much else.

And it appears that Hallman is looking to take advantage of that ignorance with misleading campaign signs -

The problem with this sign (and he has the same verbiage on his website)?

Other than period pilgrimages over to the lege to beg lobby for a bigger chunk of it, the state treasurer has almost NOTHING to do with the state's budget.

The budget is within the purview of the legislature, and they aren't giving up that one; the only reason that they pay any attention to the governor regarding the budget is because of the governor's veto power.

The state treasurer doesn't have that, so is ignored.

However, the average voter doesn't know the nitty-gritty of Arizona governance, so we get signs like this.

Fun With Campaign Signs 2014: Chapter 1

Could someone explain to me how President Obama and the Arizona Corporation Commission* intersect?


From the ACC's website:

In most states, the Commission is known as the Public Service Commission or the Public Utility Commission. Our Commission, however, has responsibilities that go beyond traditional public utilities regulation. These additional roles include facilitating the incorporation of businesses and organizations, securities regulation and railroad/pipeline safety.

* - Check out the (relatively) very small print at the bottom of the sign.  Forese and Little are running for seats on the ACC.  Though based on the priorities indicated by their signs, working *for* the people of Arizona is not their top priority.

AZ Ballot challenges summary

One of the biannual traditions in AZ politics is legal challenges to candidates' ballot eligibility. 

There is a short period after the final date to turn in nominating signatures to challenge a candidate's ballot eligibility.  If no challenges are raised at that time, the candidate is presumed to be eligible. 

This is important to remember.

During 2012, a Republican legislative candidate was found to be living outside of the district he was running in, but the challenge was raised long after the deadline to do so.  As such, that candidate remained on the ballot (and eventually won the race).  See: Darin Mitchell, LD13 House.

This year's challenge period is over and most challenges have been resolved one way or the other. 

A few remain open because while a ruling was issued, it was appealed.

Courtesy the website of the Arizona Secretary of State, the status of challenges to state and federal level candidates (color code: Red = off the ballot; Green = on the ballot, Yellow = pending appeal):

Randy Camacho
CD7 Democratic nomination
Case dismissed, Camacho on the ballot

Miguel Olivas
CD3 Libertarian nomination
Olivas withdrew and off the ballot

Johnnie Robinson
CD7 Democratic nomination
Robinson withdrew and off the ballot

Patricia Flores
LD3 Republican State House nomination
Flores withdrew and off the ballot

Toby Farmer
LD13 Republican State Senate nomination
Ruling in favor of defendant; Farmer on the ballot.  APPEAL FILED.

James Samuelson
CD5 Independent (General election)
Samuelson withdrew and off the ballot

Cesar Chavez
CD7 Democratic nomination
Ruling against defendant, Chavez off the ballot.  Note: while the AZSOS' website doesn't indicate it, he plans to appeal the ruling.

Justin Henry
LD20 Republican State Senate nomination
Ruling against defendant, Henry off the ballot.  APPEAL FILED.

Ethan Orr
LD9 Republican State House nomination
Case dismissed, Orr on the ballot.

Scott Ryan
LD18 State Senate Independent (General election)
Ruling against defendant, Ryan off the ballot

Bryan Hackbarth
LD21 Republican State House nomination
Ruling against the defendant (twice; there were two challenges to his candidacy), Hackbarth off the ballot.  Twice. 

Ruben Gallego
CD7 Democratic nomination
Case dismissed, Gallego on the ballot

Helmuth Hack
LD21 Libertarian State House nomination
Hack withdrew and off the ballot

Barry Hess
Governor, Libertarian nomination
Case dismissed, Hess on the ballot.

Sharon Thomas
Superintendent of Public Instruction Democratic nomination
Case dismissed, Thomas on the ballot

Chuck Wooten
CD2 Republican nomination
Ruling against defendant, Wooten off the ballot

Carlyle Begay
LD7 State Senate Democratic nomination
Case dismissed, Begay on the ballot

Jennifer Knepfler
LD26 State Senate Libertarian nomination
Ruling against defendant, Knepfler off the ballot

Erminie Zarra
LD29 State Senate Republican nomination
Zarra withdrew and off the ballot

Full list of withdrawn/removed candidates here (primary) and here (general).  Note: the lists aren't fully up-to-date, but they do include candidates who withdrew before legal challenges to their candidacies were raised.

So...should my 2016 run be as Barry Goldwater or Ronald Reagan?

This story blew up all over the internet today, but it's too juicy not to chime in now that my workday is over...

From the Arizona Capitol Times, written by Evan Wyloge -

Two-time GOP loser changes party to Democrat, name to Cesar Chavez for new congressional bid

Scott Fistler didn’t have much luck as a Republican candidate. He lost a 2012 write-in campaign against U.S. Rep. Ed Pastor, then lost a 2013 bid for a Phoenix city council seat now held by Laura Pastor, Ed’s daughter.

All that could change, though, just like Fistler’s name and party registration.

After petitioning a state superior court last November and paying $319, Fistler now legally shares the name of the celebrated labor movement icon, Cesar Chavez. Earlier this year, Chavez (formerly Fistler) became a Democrat, and – before Ed Pastor announced his retirement from Congress – filed to run in the heavily Hispanic 7th Congressional District.
In his petition for a name change, Fistler wrote that he had “experienced many hardships because of my name.”

Note:  For those who are unclear on the concept, the title is sarcasm.  I'm not running for any office in 2016 under *any* name, whether my own or someone else's*.

* = Though if we could get someone to run as Ayn Rand...and someone else as William Buckley...and Margaret Thatcher...and... :)

Election 2014: Well, sigs are in and the races are set*

* = Except for the inevitable petition challenges, of course.  However, since I haven't heard about any yet, and most of them fail anyway, this post is going up.  I'll update if/when something significant changes.

In primary races, both R and D, I will make no predictions unless one or more of the candidates looks to be toast already.

Full list of primary candidates here; full list of candidates going directly to the general election ballot here.

CD1 R primary - Gary Kiehne, Adam Kwasman, and Andy Tobin will be fighting tooth-and-nail for the dubious privilege of (probably) losing to Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick in the general election.

CD2 R primary - Shelley Kais, Chuck Wooten, and Martha McSally will be fighting to challenge Democrat Ron Barber in the general.  McSally has been the highest-profile candidate in the race, however, incumbent Barber is considered to be facing an uphill fight to hold onto the seat.  The R primary could get "energetic".  :)

CD7 D Primary - Ruben Gallego, Mary Rose Wilcox, Cesar Chavez, Jarret Maupin, Randy Camacho, and Johnnie Robinson are contending for the opportunity to win the seat held by the soon-to-be-retired Ed Pastor.  Gallego and Wilcox are considered to be the front runners.

CD9 R Primary - Wendy Rogers and Andrew Walter are facing off for the chance to challenge Democratic incumbent Kyrsten Sinema.


Gov R Primary - Doug Ducey, Christine Jones, Ken Bennett, Al Melvin, Andrew Thomas, Scott Smith, and Frank Riggs are running.  Even if I wanted to make predictions for R primaries, on this one I wouldn't - got no clue here.

LD6 State Senator - No primary, and no Democrat challenging incumbent R Chester Crandell, but this could be a race to watch.  Former Republican legislator Tom O'Halleran submitted enough signatures to appear on the general election ballot.

LD7 State Senator - No Rs, 3 Ds - Appointed incumbent Carlyle Begay, current state representative Jamescita Peshlakai, and Eric Descheenie (don't know anything about him).

LD8 State Senator - Three Rs, Irene Littleton, Alan Pease, and Harold Vangilder, are squaring off for the chance to unseat incumbent Barbara McGuire.

LD11 State Senator R Primary - State rep Steve Smith and Scott Bartle will face off for a chance at replacing Al Melvin (running for governor) in the state senate.

LD13 State Senator R Primary - Incumbent Don Shooter is facing a challenge from Toby Farmer.

LD15 State Senator R Primary - Incumbent Nancy Barto is facing a challenge from David Ryan.

LD16 State Senator R Primary - Appointed incumbent David Farnsworth is facing Taylor McArthur.

LD18 State Senator R Primary - Open seat (incumbent John McComish is running for a different office); current state rep. Jeff Dial and former chair of the AZGOP Tom Morrissey are facing off.

LD20 State Senator R Primary - Incumbent Kimberly Yee is facing a challenge from Justin Henry (he's a veteran and she opposed a study that would look into whether the use of medical marijuana could ameliorate the effects of post-traumatic stress disorder, or PTSD).

Note: the general election here could be very interesting - former Republican legislator Doug Quelland filed enough signatures to qualify for the general election ballot as an Independent.


LD23 State Senator R Primary - Open seat (incumbent Michele Reagan is running for a different office); current state rep. John Kavanagh and Scottsdale businessman Jeff Schwartz.  Kavanagh is from Fountain Hills, but the bulk of the district is in north Scottsdale.  Kavanagh has also become something of an ideological embarrassment to the chamber of commerce Republicans that dominate north Scottsdale politics.  May be a primary to watch.

LD25 State Senator R Primary - Incumbent Bob Worsley is facing a challenge from Ralph Heap, an ally of the man that Worsley defeated in 2012, Russell Pearce.

LD26 State Senate - No primaries here, but a possible example of the Republicans trying to get cute in their quest to unseat incumbent Democrat Ed Ableser - officially, there isn't a Republican candidate in the race, but one Dale Eames filed enough signatures to make it on to the general election ballot as an Independent.

Have you heard of "RINOs/DINOs" (Republicans/Democrats In Name Only)?

Eames is an IINO (Independent In Name Only).


LD27 State Senator D Primary - Open seat (incumbent Leah Landrum Taylor is term-limited); current state rep. Catherine Miranda and Afghanistan veteran Aaron Marquez are the candidates here.

LD29 State Senator D Primary - Open seat (incumbent Steve Gallardo is running for another office); the district's two current state reps, Lydia Hernandez and Martin Quezada, are contending for the seat.


LD1 State Representative R Primary - Noel Campbell, Frank Englund, Karen Fann, and Linda Gray are contending for the two nominations here.  Fann is an incumbent; Gray was formerly a legislator from the Phoenix area.

 LD4 State Representative D Primary - Lisa Otondo, Charlene Fernandez, and Jose Suarez are facing off.  Otondo is an incumbent.

LD5 State Representative R Primary - Sonny Borrelli, Jennifer Jones, Regina Cobb, Sam Medrano, and George Schnittgrund are running for the two nominations here.  Borrelli is an incumbent..

LD7 State Representative D Primary - Jennifer Benally, Joshua Butler, and Albert Hale are on the ballot here, and Arlando Teller has registered as a write-in candidate.  Hale is an incumbent.

LD8 State Representative R Primary - Wayne Bachmann, Darla Dawald, TJ Shope, and Frank Pratt are on the ballot here.  Pratt and Shope are the incumbents.

LD11 State Representative R Primary - Mark Finchem, Jo Grant, and Vince Leach are on the ballot here.  The two incumbents, Steve Smith and Adam Kwasman, are seeking other offices.

LD13 State Representative R Primary - Diane Landis, Darin Mitchell, and Steve Montenegro are on the ballot here.  Mitchell and Montenegro are incumbents.

LD14 State Representative R Primary - David Stevens, David Gowan, and Susan Syfert are contending here.  Stevens and Gowan are incumbents.

LD15 State Representative R Primary - Heather Carter, John Allen, and David Burnell Smith are on the ballot here.  Carter and Allen are the incumbents; Smith is a former legislator with a "colorful" history. 

LD16 State Representative R Primary - Doug Coleman, John Fillmore, Adam Stevens, and Kelly Townsend are vying for the two nominations here.  Coleman and Townsend are incumbents; Fillmore is a former legislator.

LD18 State Representative R Primary - John King, Jill Norgaard, Bob Robson, and David Pheanis are on the ballot here; Robson is an incumbent.  Scott Ryan has filed to run as an Independent on the general election ballot.

LD20 State Representative R Primary - Paul Boyer, Bill Adams, Thurane Aung Khin, Aaron Flannery, Anthony Kern, and Carl Seel are on the ballot.  Seel and Boyer are incumbents.

LD21 State Representative R Primary - Rick Gray, Tony Rivero, and Bryan Hackbarth are vying for the two nominations here; Gray is an incumbent.

LD22 State Representative - No contested primaries here, but one Fred Botha filed to run on the general election ballot as an "Independent New Dude".

LD23 State Representative R Primary - Effie Carlson, Jay Lawrence, Bob Littlefield, and Michelle Ugenti are on the ballot here.  Ugenti is an incumbent; Littlefield is a member of the Scottsdale City Council.

LD24 State Representative D Primary - Lela Alston, Richard Bauer, and Ken Clark are vying for the two nominations here.  Alston is an incumbent.

LD25 State Representative R Primary - Rusty Bowers, Michelle Udall, Justin Olson, Jerry Walker and Haydee Dawson are on the ballot here.  Olson is an incumbent, Bowers is a former legislator, and Walker is an ally of Russell Pearce who is known for having temperament issues.

LD27 State Representative D Primary - Reginald Bolding, Norma Munoz, Marcelino Quinonez, and Rebecca Rios are on the ballot here.  Munoz is an incumbent; Rios is a former legislator from Pinal County.

LD28 State Representative R Primary - Shawnna Bolick, Kate Brophy McGee, and Mary Hamway are contending for the two nominations here.  Brophy McGee is an incumbent.

LD29 State Representative D Primary - Richard Andrade, Steve Chapman, Denice Martha Garcia, and Ceci Velasquez are on the ballot here.


AZSOS R Primary - Wil Cardon, Justin Pierce, and Michele Reagan are vying for the R nod here.  Cardon is a businessman and Pierce and Reagan are sitting legislators.

AZAG R Primary - Mark Brnovich and Tom Horne are contending here.  Horne is the incumbent here, but carries some heavy ethical baggage in the race.

AZ Treasurer R Primary - Jeff Dewit, Hugh Hallman, and Randy Pullen are on the ballot here. 

AZ Superintendent of Public Instruction - Primaries on both sides of the ballot.  David Garcia and Sharon Thomas are vying for the D nod; Diane Douglas and John Huppenthal are contending for the R nod.  Huppenthal is the incumbent.

AZ Corporation Commission R Primary - Tom Forese, Doug Little, Lucy Mason, and Vernon Parker are on the ballot here.

Campaign finance reports: Lies, damn lies, and statistics

Because of a special election in Tempe, candidates for city council there had to file campaign finance reports early.

That has led to some misleading reporting, some cherry-picking of the numbers to try to put a positive spin on things.

So here are the numbers, taken from the summary pages of the reports:




So based on cash on hand, it looks like candidate Matt Papke is doing great with more than $49K on hand, but...

He loaned his own campaign $51K, or more than 77% of his total funds raised.

In other words, he may have more than $49K on hand, but he is $2K (and counting) in the hole personally.  Not a huge issue in itself (he's hardly the first candidate to self-fund); trying to deceive people as to the nature of his funding is an issue - the practice gives possible insight into how he would conduct himself in office if he actually wins.


In contrast, candidate Lauren Kuby, a newcomer to running for office (but not to community, environmental, or political activism), raised more than $41K, with the vast majority (more than 99%) of the money coming from people not named "Lauren Kuby"*.

Otherwise, the numbers reported by the candidates aren't surprising - sitting council members Shana Ellis and Robin Arredondo-Savage had solid fundraising efforts, to be expected from incumbents.  Challengers David Schapira and Dick Foreman had late starts, which shows in their totals this time.  Ernesto Fonseca is a total political newbie and got a late start, with both factors seeming to impact his fundraising so far.

* - Full disclosure time: I am one of the many people who have contributed to Kuby's campaign.

2014 Gubernatorial Candidate Forum Next Friday

Save the date -

Tom Horne should NOT withdraw from the AG's race

Tom Horne, Arizona's Attorney General, is a transcendentally unethical man -

- Before becoming a lawyer, the SEC permanently banned Horne from securities trading for many reasons, not least of which was fraud

- Failed to report a bankruptcy when required

- After becoming AZAG, hired an alleged girlfriend to a taxpayer-funded position for which she was considered, ummm..."underqualified"

- During his campaign for AZAG in 2010, allegedly violated campaign finance laws by coordinating activities with an independent PAC; he denied wrongdoing, but after becoming AZAG, he hired the head of the PAC to a taxpayer-funded job with his office (the case is still ongoing)

- Committed a hit-and-run accident while leaving an alleged nooner at his alleged girlfriend's home.  We know this because the FBI had him under surveillance at the time as part of the investigation into his alleged campaign violations

- Per a complaint, and a lawsuit, from a now-former staffer, has required employees of the AG's office to work on his reelection campaign while on state time


In short, he's the most ethically-challenged attorney general in Arizona's history (so far as I can find).


In 2010, I thought that Democratic nominee Felecia Rotellini was far more qualified for the job, and Horne has done absolutely nothing in the years since to alter that opinion.

IMO, he wasn't qualified for the job to begin with, should have resigned when his bad behavior brought disgrace to the office, and shouldn't have sought reelection even if he adamantly refused to resign.


Now, some big-name Republicans are on board with the "should not run for reelection" part.

- Congressman Matt Salmon personally asked Horne to drop his reelection bid.

- US Senator Jeff Flake has publicly called on Horne to withdraw from the race.

- Even former state legislator Frank "Don't Make Me Mad" Antenori, not exactly the epitome of professionalism when he was in office, is calling on Horne to step aside -

Of course, these Rs (and others) aren't bothered by cheating to win an office, or by the misuse and corruption of the office once in it.

Nope, their problem with Horne is that they believe that if he wins the Republican nomination, he probably will lose to Felecia Rotellini in the general election.

In that regard they are correct, of course. 

In 2010, a horrible year for Democratic candidates, no matter how well-qualified, Rotellini stood out.

Intelligent, accomplished, dedicated, and with a long and documented history of public service; more than one voter, including some Republicans, told me that while they voted for Horne in the end, Rotellini thoroughly impressed them.

In spite of the Republican tidal wave in 2010, Rotellini nearly defeated Horne, and 2014 isn't shaping up to be a "wave" year, for either major party.

Now, my first response when the big-name Rs started calling for Horne to step aside "Finally!  Even the Rs have had enough of Tom Horne!".

Then I started thinking about it.

People like Flake, Salmon, and Antenori are always wrong on any significant issue.

The facts that they are always wrong and yet agree with me suggest that perhaps I should reevaluate my position.

So I have.

Horne should NOT withdraw from the race, but his opponent in the Republican primary, Mark Brnovich, should.

The reasons for this are simple.

1.  Horne has thoroughly "poisoned the waters" in the race for Republican candidates.  While he has rendered himself all but un-reelectable, his presence casts a deep shadow over any other R who might win the nomination.  While another R will have a better chance of defeating Rotellini, he/she will still face some major electoral headwinds.

2.  If Brnovich stays in the race and loses the general election, or worse, the primary, he will be seen as "damaged goods".  If he withdraws now, he can come back in 2018 as a stronger candidate

The reality in AZ politics is that a Democrat can lose a significant race and come back stronger (witness: Rotellini).

A Republican?  Not so much (witness: JD Hayworth).

Just a few thoughts...

Election 2014 - Dominoes: Gallardo out of CD7 race, into Maricopa County SD5 race

From the Arizona Republic, written by Rebekah L. Sanders -

Democratic state Sen. Steve Gallardo announced Tuesday that he will drop out of the race for Congress in the 7th District, leaving only two major candidates competing for the heavily Hispanic seat -- Maricopa County Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox and former state Rep. Ruben Gallego.

He also announced that he will be running for the seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors currently held by Wilcox.

This all started when Congressman Ed Pastor announced that he would retire after this term in Congress, opening up that race.

Wilcox, Gallego, and Gallardo announced their intentions to run for the CD7 seat. 

That, in turn, led to Marie Lopez Rogers, mayor of Avondale, and Anna Tovar, Democratic leader in the state senate, announcing their intents to run for Wilcox' seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors.

Gallardo is a good senator and a good candidate, but the CD7 race quickly became a two horse race, with Gallego and Wilcox garnering most of the big-name endorsements and almost all of the campaign contributions.

Last week, Tovar announced that she was withdrawing from that race and not seeking any any office this year. opening up that race for another entry.

This close to the filing deadline, there probably won't be any more serious dominoes falling in these races, but I've been wrong before.

In other words, keep paying attention.

Election 2014: Dropping off sigs and dropping the gloves

...It's getting on toward the filing deadline for candidates, the date when they have to file their signed nominating petitions.

Felecia Rotellini, Democratic candidate for Attorney General, filing more than 13000 signatures.  Picture courtesy her campaign Facebook page.

This week will see most campaigns file their signatures, mostly so that they can use Memorial Day weekend as the last bit of "down" time available to them before the August primary elections (except for the candidates, most of whom will be at Memorial Day events).

The full list of candidates who have submitted their sigs to the AZ SOS is here.  The list will be updated daily.

The Maricopa County list can be found here (click on "2014 Primary Candidate Listing").


 ...Just about the time sigs are dropped off, gloves are dropped (that's a hockey reference for you folks who grew up in the desert :) ).

In the CD1 Republican primary, one candidate, Andy Tobin, has called on another candidate, Gary Kiehne, to withdraw from the race.  Kiehne made some comments at a debate, blaming Democrats for 99% of mass shootings.

Tobin says that Kiehne isn't "level-headed" enough to represent Arizona. 

Which is kind of ironic, given that Tobin led the legislature in passing SB1062 during this past session of the lege.  It was their attempt to legalize discrimination based on religious "beliefs".

Kiehne didn't take it well, calling Tobin "scandal plagued" and a "carpetbagger"

Expect this just to be the first salvo; this race is going to be entertaining one.

Committees and candidate update

I didn't expect to do another one of these updates until after nominating petitions are turned in and we know who is actually going to be on the ballot.  However, there are a few significant items to update...
 

...State Sen. Kimberly Yee (R-LD20) used her power as a committee chair to kill a bill that would have provided funding for a study to see if marijuana can be used to alleviate the symptoms of post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).  PTSD affects veterans (and others, too) and there was a lot of support for the study among veterans, veterans' groups, and those who support veterans.

So now Yee, who was basically unopposed, is now facing a primary challenge from a candidate who has switched from running for the AZ House to running for the AZ Senate, Justin Henry.

Henry is, you guessed it, a veteran.


...Casey Forese, married to Republican legislator Rep. Tom Forese, has filed to run for the governing board of the Chandler Unified School District.  If she wins election and is seriously interested in working to support and improve the Chandler schools, it could lead to some interesting dinner table conversations with her husband, a member of the anti-education Republican caucus running the AZ lege.  Of course, given the track record of Republican school board members across the state, working *for* the betterment of public education may not be part of the plan.

Note: In 2014, Tom Forese is running for a seat on the Arizona Corporation Commission.  Regardless of how that election turns out, he won't be part of the legislature in 2015.

...Mike Johnson, former member of the Phoenix City Council, has filed to run for the seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors held by Mary Rose Wilcox, who is running for the Congressional seat held by Ed Pastor.  His committee chair?  Art Hamilton, a legendary former legislator.  His committee treasurer?  Tony Motola, a long-time figure, and fixer, in Phoenix politics.

Johnson joins Marie Rogers, mayor of Avondale,  and Anna Tovar, Democratic leader in the Arizona State Senate, in the race.

...Ron Bellus has filed to run for a seat on the governing board of the Gilbert Public School District.  Not a widely-known name, he was hired at the state lege for the start up of Arizona Capitol Television.  He was part of the inner circle of Jim Weiers, former speaker of the AZ House.  Bellus was let go when Weiers finished his time at the lege.  The Gilbert School Board has become notoriously dysfunctional as tea party types have taken over there, but I have no idea if Bellus is looking to help "right the ship", or looking to help finish sinking that ship.

...Alfredo Gutierrez, long-time legislator and community activist, and an author, has filed to run for the seat on the governing board of the Maricopa County Community College District (MCCCD) that he was appointed to earlier this year.


Note: Because local school board races are officially non-partisan, they will only be on the general election ballot.  As such, candidates have until August 6th to turn in their nominating sigs.  This page from the Maricopa County Education Service Agency (yes, it's run by Republicans, so no mention of public education in the name is allowed.  However,it is the office of the superintendent of Maricopa County schools) contains information about running for a local school board in Maricopa County.


This should be the last post of its type until after candidates turn in sigs and we know who will be on the ballot, but if there are any other major developments before then, I'll update...

Al Melvin: purveyor of fuzzy geography

Al Melvin may claim that Common Core educational standards embrace "fuzzy math", but he may not be one to speak - his knowledge of Arizona geography is fuzzy.  At best.

State Sen. Al Melvin (R), wants to be governor of Arizona.

It's no secret that I have many problems with that, but I never thought that I would have to say this:

He doesn't know enough about Arizona geography to be qualified to visit the governor's office, much less occupy it.

On Thursday, he tweeted this -

Anthem?  "[J]ust north of Florence"???

From Google maps -

Yes, I suppose that technically speaking, Anthem is north of Florence, but not "just" north.

Getting curious, I looked up the event in question.

From the Facebook page of the Pinal County Republican Party -

The route between Anthem and the forum address in Florence, also courtesy Google maps -

Under normal circumstances, I would not publicize a Republican event.

I chose to do so in this case because if Al Melvin continues to labor under the delusion that the event is in Anthem, he will end up traveling to Maricopa County.

That would ruin a potentially great weekend.  For any Maricopans who cross his path.

Tom Horne getting his nativist freak on in the R primary...again.

Hey, it worked in 2010, right?

Arizona's attorney general, Tom Horne, has some ethical issues, as we all know.  In fact, calling them "issues" may be understating things.  A lot.

The Horne situation is so dire that the poobahs of the Arizona GOP found someone to challenge Horne in the R primary, Mark Brnovich.

The feeling seems to be that the best chance for the AZGOP to hang on to the AG's office is to nominate someone other than the incumbent.

Now, Horne is not the type to go away quietly - if he were that type, he probably wouldn't be facing the issues that he's facing.

To that end, he has re-formed the bigot band for a fundraiser.

In 2010, Arizona enacted the infamous anti-immigrant measure, SB1070.  While it was signed into law by Governor Jan Brewer, all-but guaranteeing her election that year, the bill was crafted by then-state senator Russell Pearce and his ally, Kris Kobach, now the secretary of state in Kansas (and then, as now, a major figure in the nation's nativist movement).

Then the state's Superintendent of Public Instruction, Horne fully embraced the measure and its spirit of hate.

That embrace helped to propel Horne to a general election victory over Democrat Felecia Rotellini.  She was the lone bright spot for Democrats in a down year - by a wide margin, she was the strongest contender of any of the Democratic candidates for statewide office in Arizona.

"Strongest" to the point that many observers felt that in almost any other election cycle, she would have defeated Horne.

Fast forward to 2014, and Horne is up for election again, and Rotellini is looming in the general election, and she has four years of Tom Horne as AG to run on (in addition to her own strong record).

So, facing strong opposition in both the primary and general elections, Horne is turning to old allies for help.

Courtesy KPNX's Brahm Resnik -

The most frightening this about this event isn't that it will be an assemblage of some of the biggest bigots to hold elected office in recent memory (plus one of the least-talented successful actors ever), or that there are people who will actually *pay* to rub shoulders with the same.

Nope.  The most frightening thing about this event is this one line -

"Tom will also be playing "Rhapsody in Blue" on the University Club Piano"

There's no indication if ear plugs will be available for the guests.  Or if music critics will be allowed to attend.


PS - what's with this? -

That star looks kinda familiar.

OK.  Very familiar.

Possibly not the best choice for a candidate for elected office in Arizona.

More fun with social media: Doug Ducey boasts about his college fraternity affiliation. Maybe he shouldn't have.

On Wednesday, Doug Ducey, Arizona State Treasurer and a candidate for the Republican nomination for governor, tweeted this -

Member of PKA?  Probably not something to brag about. 

From KSAZ (Phoenix channel 10), dated September 4, 2013 -

Tempe Police have confirmed that a 19-year-old boy beaten nearly to death early Monday morning was a member of ASU fraternity Sigma Phi Epsilon. The suspects are members of rival frat Pi Kappa Alpha.

The 19-year-old remains in the hospital. He underwent several surgery Wednesday morning, and Sgt. Mike Pooley says his injuries are so severe, he will need multiple surgeries. 

While another Twitter user pointed out PKA's violent record, as of this writing, Ducey has not responded, or clarified or removed the tweet.

Short attention span musing: AZ political news and notes

...Just a few things...


...The AZ House and Senate have each passed slightly different versions of a state budget.  It's now in conference committee where Rs from the House and Rs from the Senate will hash out their differences.  There are Ds assigned to the committee, but don't expect them to be allowed to have much say.  At this point, it's just about determining how ugly the budget will be - will it be "Tobin Ugly" or will it be "Biggs Ugly".

My money is on "Biggs Ugly"; as bad as Tobin is, no member of the current lege does "ugly" as enthusiastically as Biggs (though a few do try).

...In a (somewhat) budget-related development, the House slowed down final consideration of Senate bills.  The original plan had been to keep working on the measures while the budget negotiations take place, but it was pointed out that if that happened while the Senate sat on the remaining House bills, the House would lose all leverage with the Senate.

After that "observation", the House "caucused" the remaining Senate bills that they have, but haven't moved them to final consideration since.

Now the Senate has 16 House bills on its COW calendar on Monday (COW1, COW2) and 29 House bills on its Rules Committee agenda for Monday (1 p.m., Caucus Room 1), setting them up for floor consideration.

According to sources, the member of the House who made that observation?  Ethan Orr.

The southern AZ Republican may lose his bid for reelection (in his D-leaning district, he likes to portray himself as a moderate, but his brand of "moderation" reeks more of "triangulation" than anything more significant), but in terms of intra-organization politics, the tactic is spot-on.

...Sources predict the lege will adjourn sine die within the next couple of weeks.  My sources are Democrats, so their information may not be the most current, but that prediction fits with the usual practice of early adjournments in even-numbered years so members can go out and campaign.

...In addition to the legislative membership changes (both pending and already occurred) due to term limits and runs for Congress, a ripple effect will be seen as members choose to seek the offices of people who are seeking Congressional seats.

Latest example:  Senate Democratic leader Anna Tovar has filed for an exploratory committee to run for the seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors vacated by Mary Rose Wilcox, who is running for the Congressional seat held by the retiring Ed Pastor.

Assuming that there are no further developments, that means that she will not be returning to the Senate.  As of this writing, no other D has filed to run for the LD19 Senate seat that she currently holds.  However, four Ds are running for the two House seats from that district, so don't be shocked if one of them switches over.

Also filing for a run at the MCBOS, so far anyway:

Marie Lopez Rogers, mayor of Avondale

Breaking news1: Jan Brewer isn't going to seek a third term as governor; Breaking news2: Water is wet.

From the Arizona Republic, written by Yvonne Wingett Sanchez -

Gov. Jan Brewer announced Wednesday she will not seek another term in office, an effort that would have required a long-shot court challenge to the state’s term limits.

“There does come a time to pass the torch of leadership,” Arizona’s Republican governor said. “After completing this year in office, I will do just that.”

This has made national news, with even a friend of mine from New England commenting in a phone call that this seems like a big deal.

So I read the relevant clause in the Arizona Constitution to her.

From Article 5, Section 1 of that document -

No member of the executive department shall hold that office for more than two consecutive terms. This limitation on the number of terms of consecutive service shall apply to terms of office beginning on or after January 1, 1993. No member of the executive department after serving the maximum number of terms, which shall include any part of a term served, may serve in the same office until out of office for no less than one full term.

My friend's response -


"Oh."


I can honestly state that the announcement was no surprise - since she started making noises about running for another term, I've said it was about retaining some leverage with the legislature, not actually running again.

She was looking to stave off "lame duck" status as long as possible.

Her "official" announcement was today, but her practical announcement was her veto of the discrimination protection bill, SB1062.

The rationale she gave for the veto was all about the input of the "business community" and the harm that the bill would have caused to Arizona.

However, in 2010, she signed the nativist bill, SB1070, over similar objections from the same people.

The difference between then and now?

In 2010, she was a candidate in a crowded R field, and SB1070 cleared the field for her.

In 2014, she's term-limited and has no self-interest to enhance by signing a bad bill.


AZBlueMeanie at Blog for Arizona offers his perspective on today's announcement here.

From the "Damn, that's gotta hurt" department: AZ-gov (R) - Thomas outpolling Ducey

From Public Policy Polling (emphasis added) -

Moving on to the Governor's race for this year, it looks pretty wide open for both the Republican primary and the general election. The leader for the GOP nomination is 'undecided' at 34%. 5 candidates have measurable amounts of support at this point- Ken Bennett at 20%, Christine Jones at 16%, Scott Smith at 12%, Andrew Thomas at 9%, and Doug Ducey at 6%. Al Melvin, John Molina, and Frank Riggs all register at 1% in the poll.

It's still early and all of the candidates are looking to increase their name ID, but Thomas' main claim to fame is that he was disbarred.

I know that state treasurer is almost the epitome of the "low-profile" office in Arizona (not the lowest profile though - quick, name the state mine inspector, without looking it up), but Doug Ducey getting out-polled by somebody who's more "notorious" than "famous"?

Ouch.


Full poll results here.