Sunday, June 01, 2014

Election 2014: Well, sigs are in and the races are set*

* = Except for the inevitable petition challenges, of course.  However, since I haven't heard about any yet, and most of them fail anyway, this post is going up.  I'll update if/when something significant changes.

In primary races, both R and D, I will make no predictions unless one or more of the candidates looks to be toast already.

Full list of primary candidates here; full list of candidates going directly to the general election ballot here.

CD1 R primary - Gary Kiehne, Adam Kwasman, and Andy Tobin will be fighting tooth-and-nail for the dubious privilege of (probably) losing to Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick in the general election.

CD2 R primary - Shelley Kais, Chuck Wooten, and Martha McSally will be fighting to challenge Democrat Ron Barber in the general.  McSally has been the highest-profile candidate in the race, however, incumbent Barber is considered to be facing an uphill fight to hold onto the seat.  The R primary could get "energetic".  :)

CD7 D Primary - Ruben Gallego, Mary Rose Wilcox, Cesar Chavez, Jarret Maupin, Randy Camacho, and Johnnie Robinson are contending for the opportunity to win the seat held by the soon-to-be-retired Ed Pastor.  Gallego and Wilcox are considered to be the front runners.

CD9 R Primary - Wendy Rogers and Andrew Walter are facing off for the chance to challenge Democratic incumbent Kyrsten Sinema.

Gov R Primary - Doug Ducey, Christine Jones, Ken Bennett, Al Melvin, Andrew Thomas, Scott Smith, and Frank Riggs are running.  Even if I wanted to make predictions for R primaries, on this one I wouldn't - got no clue here.

LD6 State Senator - No primary, and no Democrat challenging incumbent R Chester Crandell, but this could be a race to watch.  Former Republican legislator Tom O'Halleran submitted enough signatures to appear on the general election ballot.

LD7 State Senator - No Rs, 3 Ds - Appointed incumbent Carlyle Begay, current state representative Jamescita Peshlakai, and Eric Descheenie (don't know anything about him).

LD8 State Senator - Three Rs, Irene Littleton, Alan Pease, and Harold Vangilder, are squaring off for the chance to unseat incumbent Barbara McGuire.

LD11 State Senator R Primary - State rep Steve Smith and Scott Bartle will face off for a chance at replacing Al Melvin (running for governor) in the state senate.

LD13 State Senator R Primary - Incumbent Don Shooter is facing a challenge from Toby Farmer.

LD15 State Senator R Primary - Incumbent Nancy Barto is facing a challenge from David Ryan.

LD16 State Senator R Primary - Appointed incumbent David Farnsworth is facing Taylor McArthur.

LD18 State Senator R Primary - Open seat (incumbent John McComish is running for a different office); current state rep. Jeff Dial and former chair of the AZGOP Tom Morrissey are facing off.

LD20 State Senator R Primary - Incumbent Kimberly Yee is facing a challenge from Justin Henry (he's a veteran and she opposed a study that would look into whether the use of medical marijuana could ameliorate the effects of post-traumatic stress disorder, or PTSD).

Note: the general election here could be very interesting - former Republican legislator Doug Quelland filed enough signatures to qualify for the general election ballot as an Independent.

LD23 State Senator R Primary - Open seat (incumbent Michele Reagan is running for a different office); current state rep. John Kavanagh and Scottsdale businessman Jeff Schwartz.  Kavanagh is from Fountain Hills, but the bulk of the district is in north Scottsdale.  Kavanagh has also become something of an ideological embarrassment to the chamber of commerce Republicans that dominate north Scottsdale politics.  May be a primary to watch.

LD25 State Senator R Primary - Incumbent Bob Worsley is facing a challenge from Ralph Heap, an ally of the man that Worsley defeated in 2012, Russell Pearce.

LD26 State Senate - No primaries here, but a possible example of the Republicans trying to get cute in their quest to unseat incumbent Democrat Ed Ableser - officially, there isn't a Republican candidate in the race, but one Dale Eames filed enough signatures to make it on to the general election ballot as an Independent.

Have you heard of "RINOs/DINOs" (Republicans/Democrats In Name Only)?

Eames is an IINO (Independent In Name Only).

LD27 State Senator D Primary - Open seat (incumbent Leah Landrum Taylor is term-limited); current state rep. Catherine Miranda and Afghanistan veteran Aaron Marquez are the candidates here.

LD29 State Senator D Primary - Open seat (incumbent Steve Gallardo is running for another office); the district's two current state reps, Lydia Hernandez and Martin Quezada, are contending for the seat.

LD1 State Representative R Primary - Noel Campbell, Frank Englund, Karen Fann, and Linda Gray are contending for the two nominations here.  Fann is an incumbent; Gray was formerly a legislator from the Phoenix area.

 LD4 State Representative D Primary - Lisa Otondo, Charlene Fernandez, and Jose Suarez are facing off.  Otondo is an incumbent.

LD5 State Representative R Primary - Sonny Borrelli, Jennifer Jones, Regina Cobb, Sam Medrano, and George Schnittgrund are running for the two nominations here.  Borrelli is an incumbent..

LD7 State Representative D Primary - Jennifer Benally, Joshua Butler, and Albert Hale are on the ballot here, and Arlando Teller has registered as a write-in candidate.  Hale is an incumbent.

LD8 State Representative R Primary - Wayne Bachmann, Darla Dawald, TJ Shope, and Frank Pratt are on the ballot here.  Pratt and Shope are the incumbents.

LD11 State Representative R Primary - Mark Finchem, Jo Grant, and Vince Leach are on the ballot here.  The two incumbents, Steve Smith and Adam Kwasman, are seeking other offices.

LD13 State Representative R Primary - Diane Landis, Darin Mitchell, and Steve Montenegro are on the ballot here.  Mitchell and Montenegro are incumbents.

LD14 State Representative R Primary - David Stevens, David Gowan, and Susan Syfert are contending here.  Stevens and Gowan are incumbents.

LD15 State Representative R Primary - Heather Carter, John Allen, and David Burnell Smith are on the ballot here.  Carter and Allen are the incumbents; Smith is a former legislator with a "colorful" history. 

LD16 State Representative R Primary - Doug Coleman, John Fillmore, Adam Stevens, and Kelly Townsend are vying for the two nominations here.  Coleman and Townsend are incumbents; Fillmore is a former legislator.

LD18 State Representative R Primary - John King, Jill Norgaard, Bob Robson, and David Pheanis are on the ballot here; Robson is an incumbent.  Scott Ryan has filed to run as an Independent on the general election ballot.

LD20 State Representative R Primary - Paul Boyer, Bill Adams, Thurane Aung Khin, Aaron Flannery, Anthony Kern, and Carl Seel are on the ballot.  Seel and Boyer are incumbents.

LD21 State Representative R Primary - Rick Gray, Tony Rivero, and Bryan Hackbarth are vying for the two nominations here; Gray is an incumbent.

LD22 State Representative - No contested primaries here, but one Fred Botha filed to run on the general election ballot as an "Independent New Dude".

LD23 State Representative R Primary - Effie Carlson, Jay Lawrence, Bob Littlefield, and Michelle Ugenti are on the ballot here.  Ugenti is an incumbent; Littlefield is a member of the Scottsdale City Council.

LD24 State Representative D Primary - Lela Alston, Richard Bauer, and Ken Clark are vying for the two nominations here.  Alston is an incumbent.

LD25 State Representative R Primary - Rusty Bowers, Michelle Udall, Justin Olson, Jerry Walker and Haydee Dawson are on the ballot here.  Olson is an incumbent, Bowers is a former legislator, and Walker is an ally of Russell Pearce who is known for having temperament issues.

LD27 State Representative D Primary - Reginald Bolding, Norma Munoz, Marcelino Quinonez, and Rebecca Rios are on the ballot here.  Munoz is an incumbent; Rios is a former legislator from Pinal County.

LD28 State Representative R Primary - Shawnna Bolick, Kate Brophy McGee, and Mary Hamway are contending for the two nominations here.  Brophy McGee is an incumbent.

LD29 State Representative D Primary - Richard Andrade, Steve Chapman, Denice Martha Garcia, and Ceci Velasquez are on the ballot here.

AZSOS R Primary - Wil Cardon, Justin Pierce, and Michele Reagan are vying for the R nod here.  Cardon is a businessman and Pierce and Reagan are sitting legislators.

AZAG R Primary - Mark Brnovich and Tom Horne are contending here.  Horne is the incumbent here, but carries some heavy ethical baggage in the race.

AZ Treasurer R Primary - Jeff Dewit, Hugh Hallman, and Randy Pullen are on the ballot here. 

AZ Superintendent of Public Instruction - Primaries on both sides of the ballot.  David Garcia and Sharon Thomas are vying for the D nod; Diane Douglas and John Huppenthal are contending for the R nod.  Huppenthal is the incumbent.

AZ Corporation Commission R Primary - Tom Forese, Doug Little, Lucy Mason, and Vernon Parker are on the ballot here.

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