Cheeto may have won the R caucuses in Iowa, but their nominating process isn't over

...not by a long shot.

Don't misunderstand me - I *do* believe that he will eventually win their 2024 presidential nomination, but not because of this result.

He has a strong ideological grip, not on America, but on a significant segment of the Republican Party (they *worship* him).

But Iowa isn't the end of things.

According to the Des Moines Public Library, there have been seven contested races in the R Iowa presidential caucuses since 1980 (incumbent presidents don't get challenged, and in 1972 and 1976 the R caucus in IA was irrelevant).  

Of the winners of those, two became the eventual R nominee (Bob Dole in 1996, and George W. Bush in 2000) and one of those eventually became president (Bush).

I'm not the first to observe this.

From Politico, dated 1/15 -

The checkered history of Iowa caucus champs

It’s not quite an “Iowa caucus curse,” but winning the first nominating contest hasn’t worked out so well for Republican presidential candidates lately.

In fact, the last three Iowa GOP caucus winners each failed to capture the party’s nomination: Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas (2016), former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania (2012) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (2008).

Cheeto may have won in Iowa, but so have many also-rans.

And they weren't facing multiple court dates.

The calendar may say 2024, but the 2026 election season has already started

And the first one out of the gate (the first serious candidate to form a committee) is....Dawn Grove.

She lost the race for the R nomination for AG in 2022.  She ended the race with $0 on hand.

She hasn't formed a committee for a run as yet, but Republican Karrin Taylor Robson may be running for governor again in 2026.  She was in the legislative chamber when Governor Hobbs gave her State of the State speech at the opening of the 2024 session of the state legislature.

While the panelists on channel 12's Sunday Square Off thought she was just making an appearance at an event where most politicians and wanna-bes show up.

Personally, I think she was reminding folks she has raised money for of her presence.

Three immigrants drown in Rio Grande River; will Greg Abbott celebrate his selection as Cheeto's VP choice by dancing or laughing?

I thought that Nicki Haley had the inside track for that, but (to the best of my knowledge) she hasn't racked up a body count...nor does she not look enough like Vanky to suit Cheeto.

On the other hand, while Greg Abbott doesn't look like Vanky (though it wouldn't be a surprise if he dyed his hair blond and underwent some cosmetic surgery), he HAS racked up a body count.

From Texas Public Radio (emphasis added by me) -

Three migrants drown in Rio Grande after Texas blocks Border Patrol from rescue

A woman and two children drowned in the Rio Grande near Eagle Pass on Friday night as they were attempting to cross the U.S. southern border.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection told TPR that Border Patrol was prevented from deploying lifesaving efforts by agents with Operation Lone Star, the controversial Texas border security initiative.

Under the direction of Gov. Greg Abbott, Operation Lone Star this week seized control of Eagle Pass' Shelby Park, which faces the Rio Grande and has denied access to the Border Patrol.

If the people involved with Operation Lone Star and the drownings ever face charges, they may propose the Nuremberg defense and point fingers at Abbott.

Legislative schedule - week starting 1/14/2024

It may be early in the session, but that won't stop the ideologues in the Arizona legislature.

Note: HHR refers to a hearing room in the House building; SHR refers to one in the Senate building.

Note2: Generally, I'll only specify bills that look to spread propaganda.  Other bills may be more conventionally bad (think: corrupt or other misuses of public monies and/or authority).  My recommendation is that if an agenda covers an area of interest to you, read the entire agenda.

Note3: Each chamber's respective Rules Committee meets on Monday, the House's in HHR4 at 1 p.m. and the Senate's in Senate Caucus Room 1, also at 1 p.m.  Both committees serve as rubber stamps for bills leadership wants to be advanced and gatekeepers for measures that leadership wants stopped.

Note4: Meeting start times may be listed, but are flexible.  Before journeying to the Capitol or viewing the meeting online, verify the start time.

Note5: Watch for strikers, or strike everything amendments.  Those involve inserting language that replaces the entirety of a bill.  Those can be introduced at any time and can make a previously harmless bill into a very bad one.

On Monday, 1/15 - nada.  It's a holiday and one that the bigots in the legislature may hate but since no one else will be there, neither will they.

On Tuesday, 1/16 

-

Senate Transportation, Technology, and Missing Children meets at 9 a.m.in SHR2.  On the agenda: Six measures and some presentations.

What isn't on the agenda: anything related to missing children.  The committee's chair, Sen. David Farnsworth, postured early this month on missing children.

Evidently, his posturing was meaningless to him.

Lots of red meat for the base, though -

Joint Appropriations (the Appropriation committees from both chambers) meets at 10 a.m. in HHR1 to receive the Governor's budget proposal.

House Commerce meets at 2 p.m. in HHR3.  On the agenda: Seven sunset reviews and one bill.

House Education meets at 2 p.m. in HHR4.  On the agenda:  Six bills, some of which are problematical.

House Natural Resources, Energy & Water meets at 2 p.m. in HHR1.  On the agenda:  Nine bills, most of which read as if they were written by industry lobbyists for the purpose of protecting or even increasing industry profits to the detriment on average Arizonans.

Senate Appropriations meets at 2 p.m. in SHR109. No bills on the agenda; receiving a presentation from JLBC about the state's budget.

Senate Health and Human Services meets at 2 p.m. in SHR1.  On the agenda:  Three presentations and four bills,  most of which don't seem problematical.

On Wednesday, 1/17 

-

House Ways and Means meets at 9 a.m. in HHR1.  On the agenda: no bills.  This committee will be acting as the Ways & Means Committee of Reference and be conducting some sunset reviews.

House Government meets at 9 a.m. in HHR3.  On the agenda: four bills.  Most seem to be conventionally bad but not pure ideology.

House Judiciary meets at 9 a.m. in HHR4.  On the agenda: six bills.  Some very bad; some less so.

Senate Government Committee of Reference meets at 9 a.m. in SHR1.  On the agenda: no bills; just sunset reviews.

Senate Government meets at 10 a.m. in SHR1.  On the agenda: four bills; all ideological garbage.

House Appropriations meets at 2 p.m. in HHR1.   On the agenda: one bill.  Doesn't seem to be a problem.

House Regulatory Affairs meets at 2 p.m. in HHR5.  On the agenda: Nine bills, including some very bad ones.  Making a return: the infamous "tamale" bill in the form of HB2042.  Rep Alma Hernandez has proposed an amendment to the bill.  She's a Democrat, so her proposal may not pass.

House Transportation & Infrastructure meets at 2 p.m. in HHR3.  On the agenda: four bills.  Doesn't seem too bad.

Senate Education meets at 2 p.m. in SHR1.  On the agenda: one bill.  SB1058, requiring schools to add a personal finance course to their curriculum.

Senate Military Affairs, Public Safety and Border Security meets at 2 p.m. in SHR2.  On the agenda: one bill.

On Thursday, 1/18 

-

House Appropriations Subcommittee on Budgetary Funding Formulas meets at 9 a.m. in HHR3.  On the agenda:  no bills, but there will be some ideologically-based presentations.

House Appropriations Subcommittee on Fiscal Accountability meets at 9 a.m. in HHR4. On the agenda: no bills but there will be a presentation on opioid settlement funds.

House Appropriations Subcommittee on State & Local Resources meets at 9 a.m. in HHR5. On the agenda: no bills, but there will be presentations on the Rs' favorite talking point, border security.

Senate Judiciary meets at 9 a.m. in SHR1.  On the agenda: two bills, both very bad.  SB1007 would make it a class 5 felony for a public school employee or independent contractor of a public school to refer students to or use any sexually explicit material, while SB1017, exempting Tom Horne's Department of Education from a requirement to use the state attorney general's office for legal services.

MAGA types are already gearing up to lose the 2024 election

And if/when the election doesn't go their preferred way, expect cries of "fraud!" and lots of violence.

Just ask Republican Elise Stefanik.

From NBC News (emphasis added by me)-

GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik won’t commit to certifying the 2024 election results

Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., on Sunday wouldn’t commit to certifying the 2024 election results during an interview on NBC News’ “Meet the Press.”

While interviewing Stefanik, who serves in House Republican leadership, host Kristen Welker asked, “Would you vote to certify, and will you vote to certify, the results of the 2024 election no matter what they show?”

Stefanik, who has boosted former President Donald Trump’s baseless claims of widespread fraud in the 2020 election, said that she did not vote to certify the 2020 results in the state of Pennsylvania and several other states because there were “unconstitutional acts circumventing the state legislature and unilaterally changing election law.”

[snip]

When asked if she stood by the comments that she made on the House floor calling Jan. 6 a “truly tragic day for America,” Stefanik said, “I have concerns about the treatment of Jan. 6 hostages.”

[snip]

Stefanik argued that Biden and Democrats pose a “threat to democracy.”

Really?  Violent traitors are "hostages" when imprisoned?  And people who have different opinions than are threats "to democracy"?

Dear Mr. LaPierre: Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out

From Politico -

NRA CEO Wayne LaPierre steps down amid corruption charges

National Rifle Association Vice President and CEO Wayne LaPierre resigned from the organization Friday, just three days before the embattled leader is set to face a corruption trial in New York.

“With pride in all that we have accomplished, I am announcing my resignation from the NRA,” LaPierre said. “I’ve been a card-carrying member of this organization for most of my adult life, and I will never stop supporting the NRA and its fight to defend Second Amendment freedom. My passion for our cause burns as deeply as ever.”

Ya don't say!  The head of an industry lobbying was (allegedly) corrupt?

You can knock me over with a feather.

That's sarcasm folks.  I'm not surprised at all.

Legislative schedule - week starting 1/7/2024

They're baaaacccckkkkkk.  On Monday, the Arizona Legislature gavels back into session.  

And while things will be relatively quiet this week, a few of the nuggets of ugly will start moving through the legislative process by Tuesday.

Note: HHR refers to a hearing room in the House building; SHR refers to one in the Senate building.

Note2: Generally, I'll only specify bills that look to spread propaganda.  Other bills may be more conventionally bad (think: corrupt or other misuses of public monies and/or authority).  My recommendation is that if an agenda covers an area of interest to you, read the entire agenda.

Note3: Each chamber's respective Rules Committee meets on Monday, the House's in HHR4 at 1 p.m. and the Senate's in Senate Caucus Room 1, also at 1 p.m.  Both committees serve as rubber stamps for bills leadership wants to be advanced and gatekeepers for measures that leadership wants stopped.

Note4: Meeting start times may be listed, but are flexible.  Before journeying to the Capitol or viewing the meeting online, verify the start time.

Note5: Watch for strikers, or strike everything amendments.  Those involve inserting language that replaces the entirety of a bill.  Those can be introduced at any time and can make a previously harmless bill into a very bad one.

On Monday, 1/8 - No committee meetings are scheduled.  

That will change.

On Tuesday, 1/9 
-

Senate Transportation, Technology, and Missing Children meets at 9 a.m.in SHR2. No bills on this agenda; just some ADOT-related presentations. 

I am wondering how transportation and technology are related to missing children.

House Natural Resources, Energy & Water meets at 2 p.m. in HHR1.  On the agenda: three bills that read as if they were written by industry lobbyists...but are sponsored by the committee chair, Rep. Gail Griffin.  

They'll pass committee.

The phrase "nuggets of ugly" doesn't only cover culture war stuff; sometimes it refers to other things.

On Wednesday, 1/10 

-

House Ways and Means meets at 9 a.m. in HHR1.  On the agenda: some sunset reviews; no bills.

House Government meets at 10 a.m. in HHR3.  On the agenda: some sunset reviews; no bills.

House Transportation & Infrastructure meets at 2 p.m. in HHR3.  On the agenda: a couple of "technical correction" /future vehicles for strikers.

Senate Education meets at 2 p.m.in SHR1.  On the agenda: a couple of board continuation measures.

Senate Military Affairs, Public Safety and Border Security meets at 2 p.m. in SHR2.  On the agenda:  No bills but eight "fear of the other" presentations.

On Thursday, 1/11 

-

Senate Natural Resources, Energy and Water Committee of Reference and House Natural Resources, Energy and Water Committee of Reference meets at 9 a.m. in SHR2.  On the agenda: some sunset reviews; no bills.

House Appropriations Subcommittee on Budgetary Funding Formulas meets at 9:30 a.m. in HHR3.  On the agenda: some presentations; no bills.

Senate Natural Resources, Energy and Water Committee of Reference and House Natural Resources, Energy and Water Committee of Reference meets at 10 a.m. in SHR2.  More sunset reviews.

Senate Natural Resources, Energy and Water Committee of Reference and House Natural Resources, Energy and Water Committee of Reference meets at 11 a.m. in SHR2.  More sunset reviews

Senate Health and Human Services Committee of Reference and House Health and Human Services Committee of Reference meets at 2 p.m. in HHR1.  On the agenda: some sunset reviews; no bills.

The GOP method for dealing with debt: Incur it then try to have others pay for it

From the calendar of the Arizona Supreme Court for next Tuesday, January 9 -

This stems from an earlier case -

I believe that this appeal stems from Maricopa County civil case CV2022-013185, but I'm not sure.

Like the case where they have filed for attorney's fees, they initiated the case against the same defendants, and had most of the same lawyers.  Maybe their lawyers believe that best way for them to get paid is to sue someone and then have that someone pay for that experience.

This whole garnered my interest due to an email that I received on Monday from the AZGOP -

It really would have been nice to receive their year-end email/money grab *before*, you know, the end of the year.  Not that they would ever receive money from me.

I'm just not a fan of sloppy, even from folks I disagree with.

Of course, neither the attorney's fees or the the money grab will address their underlying problem.

From AZ Mirror, written by Caitlin Sievers, dated August 11, 2023 -

Arizona Republican Party’s fundraising abysmal in run up to pivotal 2024 election

The Arizona Republican Party’s fundraising efforts so far this year have been dismal, with Democrats outpacing them seven to one, leaving political operatives wondering if the party’s new chairman can right the ship in time to mount any sort of meaningful campaign in 2024. 

The party took in only $165,293 in contributions so far in 2023, as compared to the Arizona Democratic Party’s more than $1.15 million. While in recent years, the state Democratic Party has always taken in a larger amount of individual contributions  than the Republican Party, the GOP is struggling even more than usual to garner funding this year. 

Certain folks should pay their bills

The blog site for Arizona's House Republicans is linked to the lege's page for Republican press releases -

 

Which even I would think is fine, EXCEPT that the blog site has been retaken by GoDaddy, the site owner -

Hmmm....

Arizona Presidential Primary Candidates

On December 18, 2024, the Arizona Secretary of State was supposed to hold a lottery to determine the order of names on the ballots for the Presidential Preference Elections (PPE) -

The results of that  haven't been posted as yet, but an alphabetized list of PPE candidates has been -

A more user-friendly list of candidates is here.

One item of note: no non-major party candidates will be on primary ballots here in AZ.

Nikki Haley hedges her bets in the GOP presidential primary

She is trying to appeal to Cheeto's base by telling them that the war they lost was all about "freedom."

Freedom to enslave and kill others for not looking like them, maybe.  However, believing the Civil War was about "freedom" doesn't mean that Cheeto, his supporters, or her, are decent human beings.

From CBS News -

Nikki Haley defends leaving slavery out as cause of Civil War after backlash

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley on Thursday sought to defend earlier comments that failed to mention slavery as a cause of the Civil War as she received backlash on social media. 

"I mean, of course, the Civil War was about slavery," Haley said on The Pulse of New Hampshire Radio program "Good Morning NH with Jack Heath."

"We know that- that's, that's the easy part of it. What I was saying was, what does it mean to us today? What it means to us today is about freedom. That's what that was all about. It was about individual freedom, it was about economic freedom, it was about individual rights," she said. 

[snip]

"Well, don't come with an easy question," Haley joked. "I think the cause of the Civil War was basically how government was going to run, the freedoms, and what people could and couldn't do. What do you think the cause of the Civil War was?"

[snip]

"I think it always comes down to the role of government, and what the rights of the people are," Haley said. "And I will always stand by the fact that I think government was intended to secure the rights and freedoms of the people. It was never meant to be all things to all people. Government doesn't need to tell you how to live your life."

I believe that there are three possible goals of her behavior:

1.  She's wants to be the nominee.  She's closed the gap with Cheeto, and thinks that appealing to his supporters will put her over the top.

2. She wants to in second so she can be the alternative nominee in the (likely) event that Cheeto wins the nomination but is unable to run in the general due to his myriad issues.

3. She wants to be on the ticket as the VP candidate.

No matter how she's on the GOP ticket, no one in that primary is worthy is worthy of a vote.  Including her.

Legislative schedule - week starting 12/31/2023

Even though the week begins in 2023, six out of the seven days, and all meetings, occur in 2024.

One can tell it's near the end of the lege's intersession - there are lot's of sunset reviews this week.

But rest assured MAGA types - the Rs there will still find time to waste taxpayer money while promulgating some  R propaganda.

On Monday, 1/1/2024 - it's a holiday, so there are no meetings.

On Tuesday, 1/2 - Nada.

On Wednesday, 1/3 

-

Senate Health and Human Services Committee of Reference and House Health & Human Services Committee of Reference meets at 9 a.m. in HHR1.   Three items on the agenda: sunset reviews of Arizona Department of Child Safety, Foster Care Review Board, and the Arizona Adult Protective Services System.

Joint Legislative Psychiatric Hospital Review Council meets at 2 p.m. or upon adjournment of the earlier committee in SHR1.

On Thursday, 1/4 

-

Senate Transportation and Technology Committee of Reference and House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee of Reference meets at 8 a.m. in SHR1.  Sunset review of the Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT).

Joint Legislative Ad Hoc Committee on Freedom of Expression at Arizona's Public Universities meets at 10 a.m. or upon adjournment of the earlier committee in SHR109.

Propaganda-spewing on tap.

Arizona Off-Highway Vehicle Study Committee meets at 1 p.m. in SHR1 to receive some presentations.

Cheeto has an interesting definition of "loser"

From The Hill -

Trump lashes out at ‘loser’ Rep. Debbie Dingell in swirling feud

Former President Trump hit back at Rep. Debbie Dingell’s (D-Mich.) criticism of his “rot in Hell” Christmas message, calling her a “loser” in the latest in a string of insults aimed at the lawmaker and her family.

“Debbie Dingell of Michigan is a LOSER, who is helping Crooked Joe Biden, and his Merry Band of Thugs, to DESTROY our Country with his INSANE Open Borders Policy, Inflation, High Cost Energy, Green New Scam, HORRIBLE WORLD DIPLOMACY, Afghanistan Catastrophe, All Electric Cars, and so much else,” Trump wrote Tuesday in a Truth Social post.

From the Michigan Secretary of State -

From CNN -

Arizona's land developers want to sacrifice Arizona's dwindling water supply on the altar of their profits

From AP -

Developers want water policy changes in response to construction limits on metro Phoenix’s fringes

Developers plan to seek changes to Arizona’s decades-old laws restricting construction in areas without adequate water supplies after the state said this summer that it won’t issue permits for new subdivisions in some areas on metro Phoenix’s fringes.

Capitol Media Services reported that the Home Builders Association of Central Arizona wants lawmakers to remove what it calls a “moratorium on home buildings in the most affordable parts” of metro Phoenix, saying the move is leading to escalating home prices.

Michael Bryan at Blog for Arizona has piece on this, one that he titled "Oh, Hell No!".

I thought that response was understated.

My guess is that, given the amount of largesse that the Home Builders Association of Central Arizona has directed at legislative races, this scheme will get through the legislature.  Where it goes after that?  I don't know.

Legislative schedule - week starting 12/24/2023

The week of Christmas will be a quiet one at the legislature - nothing is on the schedule there.

Note: HHR refers to a hearing room in the House building; SHR refers to one in the Senate building.

Note2: Generally, I'll only specify bills that look to spread propaganda.  Other bills may be more conventionally bad (think: corrupt or other misuses of public monies and/or authority).  My recommendation is that if an agenda covers an area of interest to you, read the entire agenda.

Note3: Each chamber's respective Rules Committee meets on Monday, the House's in HHR4 at 1 p.m. and the Senate's in Senate Caucus Room 1, also at 1 p.m.  Both committees serve as rubber stamps for bills leadership wants to be advanced and gatekeepers for measures that leadership wants stopped.

Note4: Meeting start times may be listed, but are flexible.  Before journeying to the Capitol or viewing the meeting online, verify the start time.

Note5: Watch for strikers, or strike everything amendments.  Those involve inserting language that replaces the entirety of a bill.  Those can be introduced at any time and can make a previously harmless bill into a very bad one.