Thursday, January 18, 2024

Cheeto may have won the R caucuses in Iowa, but their nominating process isn't over

...not by a long shot.

Don't misunderstand me - I *do* believe that he will eventually win their 2024 presidential nomination, but not because of this result.

He has a strong ideological grip, not on America, but on a significant segment of the Republican Party (they *worship* him).


But Iowa isn't the end of things.


According to the Des Moines Public Library, there have been seven contested races in the R Iowa presidential caucuses since 1980 (incumbent presidents don't get challenged, and in 1972 and 1976 the R caucus in IA was irrelevant).  

Of the winners of those, two became the eventual R nominee (Bob Dole in 1996, and George W. Bush in 2000) and one of those eventually became president (Bush).

I'm not the first to observe this.


From Politico, dated 1/15 -

The checkered history of Iowa caucus champs

It’s not quite an “Iowa caucus curse,” but winning the first nominating contest hasn’t worked out so well for Republican presidential candidates lately.

In fact, the last three Iowa GOP caucus winners each failed to capture the party’s nomination: Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas (2016), former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania (2012) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (2008).

Cheeto may have won in Iowa, but so have many also-rans.

And they weren't facing multiple court dates.


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