Thursday, January 14, 2010

Shadegg retires...again

Congressman John Shadegg (R-CD3) has announced that he will not seek reelection this year. He made the same announcement two years ago, then reneged on it.

This time he reallyreallyreally means it, honest.

Note: any speculation about possible Republican candidates is just that - speculation. In case you couldn't tell (because my writing is *so* subtle :) ), I am NOT a Republican and have few, if any, sources among the Rs.

A quick rundown of some possible candidates to replace him (announced and speculated about):

Jon Hulburd, Democrat, is the only announced candidate thus far. He was gearing up to challenge Shadegg; now he has to shift gears slightly and adjust to running for an open seat.

Phil Gordon, Democrat. He's currently the Mayor of Phoenix and is termed limited next year, so he wants to move onward and upward. If he gets in and gains any traction in this race, it will be on the strength of his fundraising and campaign machine. Grassroots Dems do NOT like Gordon - he's endorsed too many really bad Rs (Jim Weiers, Andrew Thomas) to endear himself to neighborhood Democratic activists. Has the ego to jump in anyway.

Jim Waring, Republican. Currently a state senator. Was rumored to be interested two years ago, but backed off when Shadegg unretired. Currently "exploring" a run at State Treasurer, but may forego that for a shot at DC. If he goes for it, State Sen. Thayer Verschoor will probably go for the Treasurer's job. Of the R names listed here, he may be the best of a very bad lot. Very conservative, but not a knuckledragger.

Pam Gorman, Republican. Currently a state senator, and like Waring, was rumored to be interested two years ago. Currently on the outs with Senate leadership for her "more conservative than thou" grandstanding on the state budget last year, so she may be very interested this time around.

Sean Noble, Republican. Formerly Shadegg's chief of staff and has long been considered Shadegg's heir apparent. Writes the blog Noble Thinking.

Steve May, Republican. Former state legislator. Actually formed a committee in 2008 and briefly ran against Shadegg, but backed off when the support wasn't there. Very conservative, strong military background, but with one big flaw by Republican standards - he's openly gay. If he runs for office again, any office, he will have a tough row to hoe in any R primary. I don't think that he lives in the district, but that is a minor detail in AZ. Just ask Virginian Rick Renzi.

Sam Crump, Republican. Currently a state representative. Very conservative, very ambitious, not known for playing well with others - threatened to challenge House Speaker Kirk Adams on the budget, and like Gorman, got slapped down for his trouble (but only temporarily). Also started to mount a campaign for AG, trying to bump more established Rs Tom Horne and Andrew Thomas from the race. Recently backed away from that to run for reelection to the state House. Very likely to jump in here, regardless of who else jumps in.

Any teabagger (pick one, any one.) Don't know which one, but given the state of the current GOP, at least one will jump in.

Other possible but less likely candidates:

Perennial candidate Susan Bitter Smith (R), an industry lobbyist and currently president of the governing board of the Central Arizona Project. She doesn't live in the district, but may view an open seat as an easier target than Harry Mitchell in CD5.

The aforementioned Tom Horne (R), currently State Superintendent of Public Instruction and a candidate for Attorney General. Possible, but not likely - Andrew Thomas' travails (a polite word for "expected federal indictment") leave him a clear path at the R nod for AG. A CD3 primary would be far less of a good bet for him.

Bob Lord (D), who mounted a strong challenge to Shadegg in 2008. Word is that he has been advising fellow D Hulburd. Expended a lot of energy in 2008, and may not have another run in him. Yet.

Vernon Parker (R), Mayor of Paradise Valley and an announced candidate for Governor. Has an uphill battle in a statewide race with his low name recognition, but is one of the bigger names in the district. Pure speculation on my part, but I wanted to toss out a name that no one else has so far. :)

Tedski's take and speculations at Rum, Romanism, Rebellion, here.

Anybody have their own guesses? Feel free to leave them in a comment...

No comments: