Maricopa County Elections 2012: Already all but over

Last week, I put up a post on the nine Congressional and 30 legislative races; today, the focus is on Maricopa County.

Though I don't know why I bother - all but a couple of the races are already over (one candidate only) or will be decided in the primary (uncompetitive districts).

The list of Maricopa County primary candidates, pending withdrawals/challenges, is here.
Maricopa County voter registration numbers, by supervisorial district, are here.
Maricopa County voter registration numbers, by justice of the peace/constable precinct. are here.


County-wide voter reg numbers -

	Republican	Democrats	Independents
Maricopa County	705576	516519	637721

The races for all but one county-wide office are effectively over -

County Assessor Keith Russell, County Recorder Helen Purcell,  County School Superintendent Don Covey, and County Treasurer Charles Hoskins, Republicans one and all, are completely unopposed - no challengers in either the primary or the general election.  In addition, County Attorney Bill Montgomery (R) is facing only a token opponent, Libertarian Michael Kielsky, in the general election.  No Democrat filed for the race, so Kielsky will get 20 - 25% of the vote, but that's it.

One race, the race for County Sheriff, promises to be far more interesting than all of the other races combined -

Democrats Paul Penzone and John Rowan and Independent (and former Republican) Mike Stauffer have all filed signatures to take on embattled Republican incumbent Joe Arpaio.  It will be an uphill battle (look at the county-wide numbers, above), but with the bright spotlight of federal investigations into his conduct in office, that hill isn't as steep as in years past.


Supervisor races

Voter reg numbers -

	Republican	Democrats	Independents
Supervisor District 1	158594	110194	146475
Supervisor District 2	195257	98816	148096
Supervisor District 3	141073	98337	113625
Supervisor District 4	167544	107728	139047
Supervisor District 5	43108	101444	90478

In SD1, the race is over - only Republican Denny Barney filed to run for the seat currently held by Fulton Brock, who isn't running for reelection because of a family-related scandal (wife and daughter boinking an underaged student/family friend.  Note: "boinking" is a euphemism.  You can figure out what it means :) ).

In SD2, while there will be a general election race (Democrat David Ortega of Scottsdale filed for a run), the voter registration disparity favoring the Republicans means that the R primary between Steve Chucri and Lester Pearce will produce the likely winner.  The best shot for Ortega will be if Lester Pearce wins the primary - he's so extreme that the "anybody but Pearce" vote will be huge.  In addition, Ortega is a known quantity among Scottsdale voters as a former member of the Scottsdale City Council.  Scottsdale Republicans are very conservative, but they are Chamber of Commerce Republicans, not burner Republicans (you know, witches, books, crosses, or whatever else is handy).  A pro-business Democrat will have a chance there, especially against someone from the Pearce camp.

In SD3, Democrat Lilia Alvarez will take on Republican incumbent Andy Kunasek.  Another uphill battle for the Democratic candidate, but she's smart and energetic and the hill isn't quite so steep as in SD2.  Not guaranteeing an upset here, but if there is going to be one in the MCBOS races, it will be here.

In SD4, incumbent Republican Max Wilson is facing two challengers in the primary - former legislator Jean McGrath and Richard Hensley, a real estate agent.  No Democrat filed to run in this district.

In SD5, incumbent Democrat Mary Rose Wilcox was slated to face an Independent in November, but her opponent, Manuel Burboa, withdrew from the race.


Justice of the Peace/Constable races

These are going to be both more difficult and easier to write about -

More difficult, because I know next to nothing about most of the districts and the players in them.

Easier, because there are so few actual races.

The wide variation in number of voters in the various Justice Precincts is no mistake.  The districts' lines are designed to approximately equalize workloads, not numbers of residents or geographical areas.

Also, while there are 25, soon-to-be 26, Justice Precincts, only 10 are up for election this year.  The remainder, plus one of this year's precincts that is only electing someone to serve out the remainder of a term, will be up for election in 2014.

Voter reg numbers:

Justice Precincts	Republican	Democrats	Independents
White Tank	30563	20546	28928
Encanto	9748	15144	11139
San Marcos	49719	34308	46714
East Mesa	43907	22388	32221
Downtown	2831	8855	7939
Arcadia Biltmore	19925	20547	20022
Ironwood	1913	1411	1825
Manistee	24401	27326	28843
Maryvale	4561	12413	10852
North Mesa	25149	14228	19897
North Valley	45544	25207	34554
Dreamy Draw	30038	21272	23817
Moon Valley	17569	13927	15043
Arrowhead	55478	29830	37145
McDowell Mountain	77527	37277	54162
Highland	55282	27517	40658
South Mountain	9244	27652	21899
University Lakes	14617	14314	16727
Kyrene	28250	26478	29308
Agua Fria	5163	12027	12261
West Mesa	7300	8100	11095
West McDowell	3211	8893	7748
Hassayampa	44567	26420	37634
San Tan	44104	21002	35365
Desert Ridge	41807	19356	30903
Country Meadows	12758	20081	21022

Arcadia Biltmore -

- JP - Incumbent Democrat Steven Sarkis is facing Republican challenger Michael Corey Chan.  Sarkis is highly respected; Chan ran as a Democrat in the San Marcos (Chandler) Justice Precinct in 2010 and is rumored as being about to be bumped off of the ballot.  Even if Chan survives any challenges to his petitions, Sarkis should defeat him.

- Constable - Incumbent Democrat Carolyn Lane is facing Republican challenger Roger Pongratz.  Lane is respected for her professionalism (something that cannot be said about many of her constable colleagues), but I don't know much about Pongratz other than that he ran for JP in 2008 and lost.


Country Meadows -

- JP - A new Justice Precinct, there aren't any incumbents here yet.  Democrats Anna Huberman and Joel Grajeda and Republican David Iwanski are running here.

- Constable - Only Democrat Kenneth Sumner filed to run for this office.


Desert Ridge -

- JP - No Democrat filed here, so the race will be decided in a three-way Republican primary between incumbent Clancy Jayne, Bill Ponath, and Jeff Schapira. 

- Constable - Republican Cory Hazlett is completely unopposed.  Given that he submitted only 22 signatures more than the required minimum, somebody is probably kicking himself right now.  A razor-thin cushion like that is just begging for a challenge, but what would be the point?


Downtown -

- JP - (2 year term) Democrats Benny Arce and Jimmie Hernandez are running; no Republicans filed here.


Dreamy Draw -

- JP - Republican Frank Conti is completely unopposed.

- Constable - Republican Doug Middleton is completely unopposed.


Highland -

- JP - One of the most interesting races.  No Democrats filed here, but five Republicans - incumbent Dan Dodge, James Estrada, Steve Urie, William Jefferson, and Jeff Smith.  Don't know much about them except for Urie, who is currently a state legislator and owner of a property management company that operates apartments and other rental properties.  "Operate" includes things like "evicting".  Guess what kind of cases a JP hears?  Can you say "conflict of interest"?  Hope so, 'cuz it seems obvious that Urie can't.

- Constable - Republican Phil Freestone is completely unopposed.


Maryvale -

- JP - Right now, there is a Democratic primary (candidates Federico Fuentes and Andy Gastelum) with the winner scheduled to go on to face two Independents in the general election (Francisco Meneses Jr. and Yesenia Perez).  However, while Gastelum submitted nearly 1200 signatures, giving him a large cushion over the mimimum required (241),  the others submitted totals that barely exceeded that minimum.  One candidate submitted only seven more than the minimum.  Don't be surprised if one or more candidates are knocked off the ballot.  No Republicans filed here.

- Constable - Only Democrats Frank Canez and Rafael Ung filed for this race.


Moon Valley -

- JP - Only Republicans Rebecca MacBeth and Russ Willis filed here.

- Constable - Only Republican J. Richard Coplan filed here.


North Mesa -

- JP - Another interesting race.  This used to be Lester Pearce's seat until he resigned to run for the Board of Supervisors.  One interested candidate, Kyle Jones, was appointed to fill the vacancy.  However, he did *not* file to run for a full term.  Republicans Cecil Ash, Jess Romney, and David Lane filed to run here, as did Democratic attorney Jacie Cotterell.  Ash is the most well-known - he is a member of the current state legislature.

- Constable - Republicans Edward Homan and Ed Malles filed here.  No Democrats filed.


San Tan -

- JP - Republicans Sam Goodman and Larry Campbell filed here; no Democrats.

- Constable - Independent Darrel Luth and Republicans Steve Allen and Ted Titchenal are running here.


South Mountain -

- Constable - (2 year term) Democrats Lincoln Brevard Jr., Jimmie Munoz, and Tommy Sanchez filed here.

There are 31 Maricopa County races on the primary ballot; perhaps three will have somewhat competitive general election races, and a few more could see "miracle" upsets there, but 80% of the races in Maricopa County will be over once the primary results come in.

I know that the Republicans and the few Democrats in safe districts will scream, but it is time for the voters to establish an Independent Redistricting Commission for county races.  Allowing the county supervisors to pick their voters, instead of the voters picking their county supervisors has contributed, in large part, to Maricopa County having the most embarrassing county government in the country.

The county health board, community college district governing board, board of directors for the Central Arizona Project, and local school boards are non-partisan (in theory, anyway) and go directly to the November ballot.  Their sigs aren't due for a few more weeks.

An Open Letter From Marcia Busching

An open letter from Marcia Busching, candidate for Arizona Corporation Commission to the three Republican candidates for the ACC...

May 31, 2012

TO: BOB BURNS
SUSAN BITTER SMITH
BOB STUMP

Disappointed.

That is how I feel.

As a candidate for the Arizona Corporation Commission, I have been looking forward to what I hoped would be a stimulating, policy-driven debate throughout the course of the campaign.

Instead, it is only May, and already I can see that what I’m facing is more of the same thing I’ve been seeing from career politicians for decades: A slate of opposing candidates who prefer to mislead their constituents with half-truths, innuendo and outright falsehoods, rather than trust the voters in our state to make a decision based on facts, positions and genuine recitations of belief.

Your newly launched web site includes photographs of me, and several of my fellow candidates, alongside the statement that we are each and all “committed to follow President Obama’s energy policies.”

That may serve as convenient red meat to toss to your supporters in an effort to energize your base.

What it does not serve to do is tell the truth.

I would challenge you, individually or collectively, to provide any evidence that I have ever made any such commitment, publicly or privately. It is, quite simply, untrue.

What is true is that the President’s energy policies do include some components with which I agree, such as a strong pursuit of alternative energy development. The question is: Why don’t the three of you agree with me on that stance? Solar energy production, as an industry, has the potential to transform Arizona, with massive new investments, thousands of new jobs and the possibility of dramatically reduced local energy rates for all Arizonans.

Are the three of you against new jobs, financial investments in our state and lower energy rates?

This is my first candidacy for elected office, but I have many decades of experience in practicing law, professional mediation, running a small business and public service. I knew what to expect when I made the decision to seek this office, and I am fully prepared for you, my opponents, to launch attacks on my character. What I had hoped for was that I would be answering for my genuine stance on issues, policies and practices; not having to dispel myths that have absolutely no basis in reality.

I am ready, willing and extremely eager to engage with each and all of you regarding the issues important to Arizonans: creating and retaining jobs, lowering energy costs, ensuring safely-run utilities and fighting investment fraud. But if we’re going to do so, we should all agree to do so within the confines of fact.

I respectfully ask you to take down or edit the content of your web site to be based in fact, not innuendo. In my opinion, you each owe an apology to the good people of Arizona whose intelligence and decency you’ve insulted with the outright falsehoods you’ve put forth about who I am and what I stand for.

Respectfully,

Marcia Busching

Note to friends of Jack Harper: Friends don't let friends tweet without an editor, or at least spellcheck

With the adjournment of the legislature and his decision not to run for another term in the lege (or another office) this year, things have been quiet on the "Zany World of Jack Harper" front.

He isn't a regular on the local political discussion TV shows, he doesn't and won't have the platform of the state legislature, and he's adjusted his Facebook page to a generic title - "Jack Harper - state elected official".  It used to say something about "state representative" or something similar.

He's lowering his profile, perhaps in preparation for a statewide run in 2014 (in the past, he's professed an interest in a run for SOS)

Which is a little discouraging. 

I know that statement is surprising to some, but whenever I'm suffering through a bout of writer's block, he somehow finds a microphone and/or TV camera, and the writer's block vanishes.

When I noticed the lowering of his profile, I worried a little, but I needn't have fretted - he still has a Twitter feed. :))

From yesterday's feed -

Now, I'm not going to pass judgement on simple typos, having made won ore too here, but "regulatute"??

"Regulatute"???

Next up:  Harper tweets that spellcheck functions are a "socialist conspiracy" to suppress the free expression of people who revel in their ignorance.

Preliminary Guide to AZ's Congress And Legislative Elections

OK, this post will be long and more than a little dry (kind of like AZ's summers), but here are the sources of info -


From the Arizona Secretary of State:

- Voter registration counts in the new Congressional districts, as of April, here
- Voter registration counts in the new legislative districts, as of April, here
- Listing of candidates who have submitted nominating petitions for the Congressional, legislative, and statewide primary elections, here; Note - one or more candidates will have their candidacies challenged in some way or will withdraw or will somehow end up not on the ballot.  Right now, I can't predict which candidates will be impacted, so all analysis will be based on conditions "as is".


In the following analysis, I've stuck with practical considerations; my opinion of policy considerations can be summed up thusly - if an Arizona Republican is able to make it through a primary, he/she can safely be assumed to be anti-society and anti-Arizona's future.

To those who hoped last year's redistricting processes would help bring some balance to Arizona's political scene:

First the good news - it helped...

Now the bad news - ...but not much.  A majority of districts remain so uncompetitive that the either the race is uncontested or will effectively be decided in the primary.


Congressional races:

The applicable voter registration figures for the new Congressional districts (note: in some of the voter reg sources, Independents are referred to as "Other" but I believe "Other" could be construed to include Greens and Libertarians.  As these numbers don't include Greens and Libertarians, I'm showing the numbers of those who didn't specify a party on their registrations as "Independents"):

 

	Democrats	Republicans	Independents
CD1	144102	113428	110609
CD2	125212	131545	112390
CD3	114777	60045	93053
CD4	81707	153023	127653
CD5	89575	182667	135873
CD6	94811	168003	129776
CD7	91887	37618	77194
CD8	98588	163681	129118
CD9	110186	123069	124687

 Map of the districts, courtesy the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission -

The good news here is that no incumbent is unchallenged.  All are facing a primary or major party general election opponent, or both, in every district.  The bad news is that most of the races are in districts where the voter registration of one party or another is so steep that the races there will effectively be over after the primary results are in.

Analysis:


- CD1 is a Democratic-leaning district that could go R. 

The Democratic primary will come down to the grassroots organizing of Wenona Benally Baldenegro against the deep pockets of and establishment support for Ann Kirkpatrick.  I think that favors Kirkpatrick, but if there is going to be a Democratic primary upset, it will be here.

The Republican primary here is a crapshoot.  The only candidate that I've heard of, former state senator Jonathan Paton, is also the one who doesn't live in the district.

Edge (for now): Kirkpatrick.


- CD2 is a slightly Republican-leaning district that could go D.  It's shaping up to be D Ron Barber vs. R Jesse Kelly, but the wild card is that both are in the (current) CD8 special election to serve out the remainder of Gabby Giffords' term and if either one gets smoked next week, that could open up things for a primary challenger.  Slight edge: Barber, as he is a friend and former staffer for Giffords, and there is an incredible amount of affection and respect for her in the area, state, and country.

- CD3 is a strongly Democratic district and the contest is likely to be decided in the primary.  There, incumbent Raul Grijalva is facing a pair of primary challengers, but I haven't heard that enough Ds in that district are ticked off at him to put his seat in danger.  So long as he takes the challenges seriously and campaigns.  Edge: Grijalva.


- CD4 is a strongly Republican district and the contest is likely to be decided in the primary.  There, carpetbagger/incumbent Paul Gosar is facing termed-out state senator Ron Gould of Lake Havasu.  Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu was in the race, but he and his office are the subjects of federal investigations (not actually a problem in R primaries) and he was outed as being gay (that actually *is* a problem in R primaries).  Right now, I'd call this one a toss-up.


- CD5 is a strongly Republican district and the contest is likely to be decided in the primary.  Former congressman Matt Salmon and former speaker of the Arizona House Kirk Adams are facing off.  Salmon has a fundraising advantage right now, but Adams may have the ground game to counter that advantage.  Edge (for now): Salmon.


- CD6 is a strongly Republican district and the contest is likely to be decided in the primary.  Current members of Congress David Schweikert and Ben Quayle are facing off.  Schweikert is more polished, but Quayle still has access to his father's money and even more importantly, his contacts.  Right now, this is another toss-up.

- CD7 is a strongly Democratic "voting rights" district.  The winner of the Democratic primary will be the winner - the Republicans don't even have a "show the flag" candidate here.  However, incumbent Ed Pastor is facing a primary challenge from one Rebecca Dewitt.  Haven't heard of her before, so edge: Pastor. 

- CD8 is a strongly Republican district and the contest is likely to be decided in the primary.  Incumbent Trent Franks is facing both primary and general election opponents.  If he was running for mayor of Washington, D.C., he'd be in trouble, but as he is running for Congress from AZ, he should be fine.  Edge: Franks.

- CD9 is a truly competitive district.  There are strong primary battles on both sides of the ballot, and the general election result will be driven by "Get Out The Vote" efforts.

On the Democratic side, David Schapira, the Democratic leader in the state senate, Kyrsten Sinema, a former legislator, and Andrei Cherny, the former chair of the Arizona Democratic Party are contesting for the nomination.  Schapira and Sinema are experienced campaigners, Cherny is a former staffer in the Clinton-era White House and has access to a lot of out-of-state money.  All are smart and have smart people around them, but Schapira is the only one who has run in, and won in, a competitive district.  Slight edge: Schapira.

Disclaimer:  I support Schapira in this race and while I've tried to be fair and stick to practical factors, my personal opinions of his candidacy should be taken into consideration when evaluating what I've written here.

On the Republican side, there are seven candidates, ranging from former or current members of city councils (Lisa Borowsky, Scottsdale; Martin Sepulveda, Chandler; Vernon Parker, Paradise Valley) through former government employees who will be sure to have demonization of public sector workers as a campaign plank (Wendy Rogers, USAF; Leah Campos Schandlbauer, CIA) to dilettantes/business owners who think that running a business is more than adequate qualification to hold high public office (Travis Grantham, [Robert] Jeff Thompson).  Got no clue on this one right now, so it's a toss-up, for now.

General election:  toss-up.  Any candidate strong enough to win a primary race in this environment will be strong enough to win a general election race in this environment.

Quick overall analysis:  Four seats that are all-but-guaranteed to end up in R hands, two that are all-but-guaranteed to end up in D hands, and three seats that either major party has a real opportunity of taking.

Summary:  While the partisan breakdown of the nine Congressional seats could end up 7-2 in favor of the Rs or 5-4 in favor of the Ds, it seems likely that it will be 5-4 or 6-3 in favor of the Rs, unless this year turns out to be a "wave" year in one direction or the other.


Legislative races:

There are many races here where the major party candidate(s) is (are) unchallenged, but there are a few interesting races to watch nonetheless.  In many of the districts, particularly the non-Maricopa districts, I am not familiar with many of the candidates or the conditions on the ground (so to speak) and won't even try to make a prediction, even one that is heavily laden with "weasel words" ("might", "maybe", "could", etc.).

Also, write-in campaigns are possible and where no one from a particular party has filed to run for a seat, they're more than a little likely.  There was one successful one in 2010 when Republican Don Shooter ran as a write-in in the LD24 (Yuma) Republican primary for state senate before going on to win the general election.

Voter registration numbers -

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

LD1	25073	60515	41557
LD2	34832	20827	27398
LD3	39291	14206	24475
LD4	30048	18636	26656
LD5	26682	48114	43111
LD6	31709	43612	36367
LD7	62954	23104	31657
LD8	30736	24810	28662
LD9	40668	37516	31895
LD10	40232	37566	31532
LD11	30345	44843	36104
LD12	25243	59352	40563
LD13	23055	39051	31877
LD14	35864	49261	38588
LD15	26856	51722	37930
LD16	26365	45098	43571
LD17	31126	49319	44287
LD18	38858	50372	45013
LD19	25914	13494	26411
LD20	30767	41678	35718
LD21	32819	44019	39016
LD22	29290	59472	41739
LD23	31394	67436	49151
LD24	31042	20833	27878
LD25	28608	59076	39967
LD26	28004	22850	35669
LD27	32546	10352	25661
LD28	33095	48204	33411
LD29	24075	13464	23610
LD30	23458	15064	22057

Maps courtesy the AIRC -

Statewide

Maricopa County

Pima County

















- LD1 is a heavily Republican district where the race will be over after the primary.

State Senate - incumbent Steve Pierce is unchallenged in the primary and no Democrat will be facing him in the general.  However, Independent (and former R) Tom Rawles filed to run directly in the general.  Given that this district is overwhelmingly Republican, the edge goes to Pierce here.

State House - one of the most interesting legislative primaries this year.  Incumbents Karen Fann and Andy Tobin, from the Prescott area in Yavapai County, are being challenged by Lori Klein, from Anthem in Maricopa County.  Klein is currently in the state senate but redistricting put her suburban Phoenix home into a district that is heavily rural.  Edge: Fann and Tobin.

- LD2 is a Democratic-leaning district where the race will likely be decided in the primary.

State Senate - incumbent Linda Lopez is unchallenged in both the primary and the general election.

State House - the two Democratic candidates, Andrea Dalessandro and Rosanna Gabaldon should be able to hold off the single R candidate.

- LD3 is a heavily Democratic district where the results of the general election will match perfectly with the results of the primary - no Republicans filed for the seats here.

State Senate - this is one of the non-Maricopa primaries where I can make no predictions - incumbent Olivia Cajero Bedford is facing one Maria Garcia, who I believe is the widow of late state senator Jorge Garcia.

State House - the Democratic candidates, Sally Ann Gonzales and Macario Saldate don't face any challengers at all.

- LD4 is a Democratic-leaning district where no Republican candidates are running.

State Senate - incumbent (sort of - she's a state rep right now) Lynne Pancrazi is the only candidate on the ballot.

State House - there's a three-way primary for the two seats.  Democrats Charlene Fernandez, Lisa Otondo, and Juan Escamilla are running.  No predictions here.

- LD5 is a heavily Republican district where the primaries are likely to determine the general election outcome.  At least the Democrats are making an effort here.

State Senate - the Republican primary includes candidates Nancy Mclain, Sam Scarmado and Kelli Ward.  McClain is currently in the House, but I don't know the others.  No predictions here.  Democrat Beth Weisser awaits in the general.

State House - the Republican primary includes candidates Sonny Borrelli, Wyatt Brooks, Doris Goodale, and George Schnittgrund.  Goodale is an incumbent, but I know nothing about the others.  No predictions.


- LD6 is a Republican-leaning district that could get interesting.

State Senate - two current House members, Democrat Tom Chabin and Republican Chester Crandell are contesting for the seat.  The numbers favor Crandell, but Chabin is a smart and strong candidate with a solid base of support in the Flagstaff area.  Right now, I'll give the edge to Crandell, but it's only a tentative edge.

State House - Democrats Doug Ballard and Angela Lefevre will face Republicans Brenda Barton and Bob Thorpe in the general.  Right now, the numbers favor Barton and Thorpe, but this is one to keep an eye on.


- LD7 is a heavily Democratic district where the Democratic primary will decide the races.  No Republicans are running here.

State Senate - incumbent Jack Jackson is unchallenged.

State House - a three way Democratic primary for the two seats.  Incumbent Albert Hale, Jamescita Peshlakai, and Phil Stago are the candidates.  No predictions.


- LD8 is a Democratic-leaning district that could see the Rs poaching one or even two of the three legislative slots here if the Democratic candidates take the voter registration advantage for granted.

State Senate - Democrat Barbara McGuire, a former legislator, and Republican Joe Ortiz are running.  The experience and numbers favor McGuire.

State House - Democrats George Arredondo, Ernest Bustamante, and Emily Verdugo are going after the two D nominations in the district.  The winners of that contest will face Republicans Frank Pratt, an incumbent, and TJ Shope in the general.


- LD9 is a slightly Democratic-leaning district that could see a seat poached by the Rs.

State Senate - Democrat Steve Farley, a current state representative, will face Republican Tyler Mott in the general.  This one will be a GOTV-based result.

State House - three Democrats, Dustin Cox, Mohur Sidwa, and Victoria Steele are vying to face Republican Ethan Orr in the general.


- LD10 is a slightly Democratic leaning district that seems likely to end up with a partisan split in its representation at the state capitol.

State Senate - a potentially very interesting race here.  Democrat David Bradley, a former state legislator, and Republican Frank Antenori, a current state senator and failed Congressional candidate, are the only candidates who filed here.  Bradley isn't the most electric candidate, but Antenori is the kind of person that is either loved or despised, no middle ground.  No prediction.

State House - Democrats Bruce Wheeler, an incumbent, Stefanie Mach, and Brandon Patrick have filed, as have Republicans Ted Vogt, an incumbent, and Todd Clodfelter.  No predictions.


- LD11 is a strongly Republican district without contested primaries, but at least the Democrats are showing up here.

State Senate - incumbent R Al Melvin will face D Jo Holt in the general.  Edge: Melvin. (If I could choose a prediction to be wrong about, this would be the one.  Melvin is a tool, and not a particularly sharp one.)


State House - Democrat Dave Joseph will face Rs Steve Smith, a current state senator, and Adam Kwasman.  Edge to Smith and Kwasman.


- LD12 is a strongly Republican district where the race will be decided in the Republican primary.

State Senate - incumbent Andy Biggs is unopposed.

State House - a four-way R primary, with candidates Eddie Farnsworth, an incumbent, Larry Chesley, and Warren Petersen.


- LD13 is a strongly Republican district where the race will be decided in the Republican primary.  No Democrats filed in this district.

State Senate - one of the more interesting primaries.  Incumbents John Nelson and Don Shooter are facing off.  Shooter chose to move to this R-friendly district than run in a D-leaning one.  It may work, but the grassroots of the major parties have one thing (and perhaps only one thing) in common - they don't like rewarding candidates who prefer to take out one of their own over a contest with someone from the other party.  No predictions, but... :)

State House - a four-way primary, with candidates Russ Jones, incumbent, Steve Montenegro, incumbent, Toby Farmer, and Darin Mitchell.  No predictions.


- LD14 is a heavily Republican district where the general election is likely decided in the primary, but at least the Democrats aren't giving the Rs a free pass here.

State Senate - Democrat Pat Fleming will face incumbent Gail Griffin in the general.  The numbers favor Griffin, however, this one has a small, but real, chance to get interesting.

State House - Democrats Robert Leach and Mark Stonebraker will face incumbents David Gowan and David Stevens.  As with the senate race, the numbers favor the Rs, but a lot of hard work and a little luck could make this race one to watch.


- LD15 is a heavily Republican district where the races will effectively be over after the primary.

State Senate - incumbent Nancy Barto is unchallenged in the primary or the general.

State House - there's a four-way R primary with incumbents Heather Carter and David Burnell Smith, John Allen (who I believe is a former legislator, but I'm not sure) and James Bearup on the ballot.  Pat Flickner is the sole candidate on the Democratic side of the ballot.


- LD16 is a heavily Republican district where the races will effectively be over after the primary.

State Senate - another interesting primary.  Current state rep John Fillmore lives in the district and is running for the senate, but current state senator Rich Crandall moved to this district to avoid a primary battle with former state senator Russell Pearce.  The winner of this one will face Democrat Scott Prior in November.  No predictions.

State House - a four-way R primary with candidates Jeff Davis, Judy Novalsky, Doug Coleman, and Kelly Townsend.  The only one that I've heard of is Townsend, who is a tea party type and was a regular at AIRC hearings last year, haranguing them repeatedly in support of uncompetitive district.  Don't know if the overall map is uncompetitive enough for her taste, but she should be happy with this district. 

No predictions.


- LD17 is a strongly Republican district where the races are already effectively over.  There aren't any primaries on either side of the ballot.

State Senate - incumbent Steve Yarbrough will face Democrat Bill Gates in the general election.

State House - incumbents JD Mesnard and Tom Forese will face Democrat Karyn Lathan in the general election.


- LD18 is a strongly Republican district but there is a full slate of smart and energetic Democratic candidates who could make this one interesting.  There are no primary contests in this district.

State Senate - incumbent John McComish will face Democratic candidate Janie Hydrick in the general.

State House - incumbents Bob Robson and Jeff Dial will face Democrats Corey Harris and Darin Fisher in the general election.  Independent Brent Fine will also be on the general election ballot.


- LD19 is a strongly Democratic district where no Republican candidates filed to run.

State Senate - current state rep Anna Tovar is running unopposed.

State Houe - a four-way primary with candidates Mark Cardenas, Lupe Contreras, Bryan Kilgore, and Lorenzo Sierra.  No predictions.


- LD20 is a strongly Republican-leaning district where some interesting stuff could happen.

State Senate - current state rep Kimberly Yee will face Democrat Michael Powell in the general election.  The wild card here is former state rep Doug Quelland, who has filed to run as an independent.  He may get knocked off the ballot by a new state law that bars anybody who owes fines for election-related infractions from running for office until the fines are paid.  Quelland was removed from office for violations of Clean Elections rules and has refused to pay the associated fines.  However, since Arizona is a Voting Rights Act "pre-clearance" state and the new law affects the conduct of elections, it has to be approved by the USDOJ before it can go into effect.

State House - a three-way R primary with candidates Carl Seel, an incumbent, George Benavides and Paul Boyer duking it out for the opportunity to face Democrats Jackie Thrasher and Tonya Norwood.  I don't know anything about Norwood, but Thrasher is a former state rep who was the victim of R games in 2008.  Not predicting an upset here, though.  Yet.


- LD21 is a Republican-leaning district, but there is a full slate of Democratic candidates so this won't be a walkover.

State Senate - incumbent Rick Murphy will face De mocrat Michael Tarrats in the general election.

State House - incumbents Debbie Lesko and Rick Gray will face Democrats Carol Lokare and Sheri Van Horsen in the general election.


- LD22 is a strongly Republican district where the race will be over after the primary election - no Democrats filed to run here.

State Senate - appointed incumbent Judy "I was a birther before Ken Bennett" Burges is completely unchallenged.

State House - there's a three-way primary with candidates Jeanette Dubreil, Phil Lovas, and David Livingston.


- LD23 is a strongly Republican district where the race will be over after the primary election - no Democrats filed to run here.

State Senate - incumbent Michelle Reagan is completely unchallenged.

State House - three-way primary involving incumbents John Kavanagh and Michelle Ugenti and challenger Jennifer Petersen.


- LD24 is a solidly Democratic district.  However, there will be hard-fought Democratic primaries, and if the D races get nasty, it could create an opportunity for the Republicans to poach a seat.

State Senate - current state rep Katie Hobbs and former state senator Ken Cheuvront are vying for the Democratic nomination.  The victor will face the victor of the R primary, either Augustine Bartning or Scott Fistler.  Hobbs and Cheuvront are known names among district Democrats, but that may not help Cheuvront.  Two years ago he tried to mount a primary challenge to a local highly-regarded justice of the peace, not because the JP in question was bad at the job, but because Cheuvront was term-limited out of the senate and he wanted a steady paycheck.  Edge: Hobbs.

State House - incumbents Chad Campbell and Lela Alston are joined in the primary by challengers Jean Cheuvront-McDermott (no, she's not related to me, and yes, she's related to Ken Cheuvront, above - she's his mom) and Tom Nerini.  Apparently, Ken is ticked off that the current electeds in the district wouldn't step aside in his favor, so he got his mom to mount a primary challenge.  I don't know anything about Nerini.  Edge (for now): Campbell and Alston.


- LD25 is an overwhelmingly Republican district where the races will be decided in the primary.

State Senate - but what a primary.  The LD25 Republican senate primary is easily the most-watched legislative race in the state, perhaps in the whole country.  Mesa businessman Bob Worsley is taking on Russell Pearce, who is attempting to make a return to the state senate after his historic, but ignominious, defeat in a recall election last year.  This one is going to get Ugly.  Democrat Greg Gadek will face the victor in the general election.

State House - incumbents Justin Pierce and Justin Olson, along with challenger Christopher Montijo are facing off in the R primary.  They'll face Democrat David Butler in November.


- LD26 is a Democratic-leaning district that could very well see a seat poached by the Rs.

State Senate - current D state rep Ed Ableser is facing current R state senator Jerry Lewis.  The numbers favor Ableser, but Lewis is the man who defeated Russell Pearce last year, and he may still garner some gratitude for that from general election voters.  The numbers may favor Ableser, but he's the underdog in this race.  Edge: Lewis.

State House - Democrats Andrew Sherwood and Juan Mendez will face the winners of a four-way Republican primary which has candidates Mary Lou Taylor, Buckley Merrill, Raymond Speakman and Jason Youn.  Edge to Sherwood and Mendez, but it's not an overwhelming one.


- LD27 is an overwhelmingly Democratic district where the real contest is in the primary.

State Senate - incumbent Leah Landrum is facing Victor Contreras in the primary.  The victor will face Republican Sarah Coleman in the general election.

State House - incumbents Catherine Miranda and Ruben Gallego and challenger Reginald Bolding square off in the Democratic primary.  They'll face Republican Daniel Coleman in November.  I don't know his relationship to the Sarah Coleman in the senate race, but they have the same filer address on their SOS paperwork.


- LD28 is a strongly Republican district where the winner(s) of the R primary is likely to win the general election, but there are strong Democratic candidates here who could make the race very interesting.

State Senate - incumbent Adam Driggs will face Democrat Eric Shelley in November.

State House - because of redistricting, three incumbent will be facing off in November.  Democrat Eric Meyer and Republicans Amanda Reeve and Kate Brophy McGee have no primary challengers.  Edge to the Rs, but since Meyer has won uphill battles before this, keep an eye on this one.


- LD29 is a strongly Democratic district where no Republicans have filed to run.

State Senate - incumbent Steve Gallardo is unchallenged.

State House - incumbent Martin Quezada and challengers Lydia Hernandez and Martin Samaniego face off in the primary.


- LD30 is a strongly Democratic district where no Republicans have filed to run.

State Senate - incumbent Robert Meza and challenger Raquel Teran are waging a primary battle here.

State House - incumbent Debbie McCune-Davis and challengers Jonathan Larkin and Mike Snitz are squaring off in the primary.


Based on what I can see here, the days of Republican supermajority control of each chamber of the lege are over, though it is unlikely that the Democrats will be able to take over one or another chamber this year.

CD5 Republican Debate Tuesday in Mesa

Normally, I don't bother with the primary debates on the Republican side of the ballot, but because I believe that the Republican primaries in CD5 (Kirk Adams, Matt Salmon) and CD4 (Ron Gould, Paul Gosar), and the Democratic primary in CD9 (David Schapira, Kyrsten Sinema, Andrei Cherny) are going to be absolute knock-down drag-outs, I'm going to cover those as much as possible.

Having said that, this came through in an email today -

What: Congressional District 5 Republican Candidates are squaring off before the August 28 primary election. Question topics will include immigration, healthcare, tax policy, government regulation, economic and industrial development for our region, and more.

When: Tuesday, June 5, 2012 at 6 pm.

Where: Jack E. Shell Auditorium of the East Valley Institute of Technology.1601 W. Main St. Mesa, AZ 85201

Who: Veteran Congressman Matt Salmon and former State House Speaker Kirk Adams come together to debate the issues at a public forum presented by the East Valley Chambers of Commerce. The Master of Ceremonies will be Russel Smolden of sponsor Salt River Project and the moderator will be Ginger Lamb of the Arizona Capitol Times. Aside from the Chandler, Gilbert, Queen Creek and Mesa Chambers and the East Valley Partnership, sponsors include Salt River Project, the East Valley Institute of Technology, CenturyLink and JacksonWhite, Attorneys at Law.

Tickets: A limited number of free tickets may be available on a first-come, first-serve basis to voters living in Congressional District 5 and other interested members of the public. Ticket requests can be made by calling the Mesa Chamber of Commerce at (480) 969-1307, Ext. 16.

I'll try to attend, but given that I don't live in the new CD5 and I don't have oodles of cash to contribute to Republican candidates (and if I had oodles of cash, the contributions wouldn't go to Republicans anyway :) ), odds are the sponsors won't put a priority on letting me have a ticket.

What's next up Russell Pearce's sleeve? Fluffy bunny slippers?

Hat tip to David Safier at Blog for Arizona for noticing this, and in turn, to Randy Parraz of Citizens For A Better Arizona for publicizing it enough to bring it to the attention of Dave...

Apparently, the Pearce political machine in Mesa has decided that the lesson in Russell's embarrassing loss in last November's recall election isn't that a public official shouldn't be arrogant and bigoted.

Nope.  Apparently they think that stuff is OK, so long as you can dredge up a "smiley, happy" pic to slap on brightly-colored campaign flyers.

Like David before me, I'm loathe to publish the entire promotional flyer here (no need to give them free advertising), but a couple of pics from the flyer tell the whole story -

Cute baby, eh?  Pretty sure it isn't his - not enough tats

Nice kid-friendly color scheme.  Won't keep Russell from being the featured player in the nightmares of Arizona's children, but I suppose it was worth a shot

I mock, but if this gambit is even succeeds a little bit in rehabilitating Russell Pearce's image, look for similar moves. 

Like maybe campaign trail footwear like this -

Pic courtesy knittycrochety.blogspot.com








Still, if he goes for the fluffy bunny slippers as his campaign footwear, he'd best not wear them while he is sponging off hitting up NRA lobbyists for campaign contributions.

Remember...

Pic courtesy MSNBC.com




On Friday, Vice-President Joe Biden spoke to a large group of survivors of military casualties.  The normally plain-spoken Biden was true to form, showing an emotional, personal side, something that usually isn't shown by politicians.

The video of his short but intensely heartfelt speech can be found here, at Huffington Post; good news coverage of the event can be found here, courtesy the National Journal/Govexec.com.

A national moment of silence/remembrance will take place at 3 p.m. local time.

Candidate petitions starting to roll in

Politically speaking, the coming week will be marked by a flurry of activity at the offices of the AZ Secretary of State and the recorders' offices in the various counties.  Literally hundreds of candidates will be submitting thousands of nominating petitions in their efforts to gain a spot on the ballot in August or November.

Most candidates submit their petitions as late as possible in order to maximize the number of signatures, but a few do so earlier. 

Among the most interesting of those:

- Doug Quelland, a former Republican state representative who was removed from office and still owes fines because of some campaign finance violations, is making a run for the state senate in the new LD20 as an independent (filed directly for the November ballot).

Note: Quelland may be found to be ineligible for the ballot under a new law that bars candidates from the ballot if they have campaign-related fines that they haven't paid.  That law is still subject to review by the US Department of Justice before it becomes effective.

- In the race for the Democratic nomination for state senate in LD24, Rep. Katie Hobbs and former state senator Ken Cheuvront each filed 931 signatures in support of their candidacies.  The fact that they filed the same number of sigs isn't significant, but filing the exact same number of sigs?  Meaningless, but cool, in a numbers geek sort of way (full list of primary filers here)

- In the race for the Republican nomination for the new CD9. one Jeff Thompson has filed 795 signatures.  It was a bit of a surprise to many observers, including me, because there aren't any filings for an Arizona candidate named Thompson on the FEC's website.

He could be the first candidate to run into legal troubles (not counting Quelland's ongoing issues, because those started years ago), because federal law and FEC rules/guidelines require that candidates register with the FEC once they reach certain financial thresholds or they engage in "campaign activities."

Among the activities they consider to be "campaign activities"?

Taking "action to qualify for the ballot."

Gathering and submitting nomination signatures qualifies as such action.

It will be interesting to see how, or even if, the other Rs in the CD9 race react to the apparent entrance of a newbie.

On the plus side for candidate Thompson:  even though it isn't a legal requirement, Thompson appears to live in CD9, unlike most of the other candidates (based on his filer address on the AZSOS' website, which tracks back to a house in Ahwatukee).

The list of Maricopa County candidates who have filed sigs is here.

Early speculation time: 2014 Governor's race - Part Two

A few days ago, I posted a snark-filled piece full of speculation on possible Republican candidates for governor in 2014.

Out of a sense of fairness, I'm now doing one on potential Democratic candidates.

Out of a sense of partisanship, it will be less snarky...at least, less snarky toward the Democratic candidates. :)

As with the prior post, no actual discussions with the potential candidates took place in the production of this post.  In no way does a mention in this post indicate that someone is planning or interested in running for governor of Arizona, nor does lack of a mention in this post indicate that someone is *not* planning or interested in running for governor of Arizona.

As with the previous post on this topic, the names mentioned are those who have held office previously or who have otherwise made an impact on the metaphorical public square.

On to the speculation:

Terry Goddard, former attorney general and candidate for governor:
- Con: has run for governor and lost, twice.
- Pro: both of the ultimate victors of the races for governor (Fife Symington, Jan Brewer) that he was in have brought great national ridicule down upon Arizona.  The voters may finally be ready to choose competence over ideological blathering.
- Con2:  This is Arizona.  Don't hold your breath.

Janet Napolitano, former governor:
- Con: she resigned as governor in 2009 to take a position in President Barack Obama's cabinet, leaving Arizona fading in her rear-view mirror.
- Pro: regardless of the outcome of the 2012 presidential election, she may be interested in moving on - - if the Rs win, a whole new cabinet will be brought in to DC; if Obama wins, pretty much the same will happen.  Second term presidential cabinets are usually very different than the cabinets for the first term of the same president.  And three-plus years of "Governor Jan Brewer" have only served to increase the amount of respect people have for Napolitano.
- Con2: as Secretary of Homeland Security, Napolitano has only had to deal with terrorists, spies, and grave threats to America.  As governor, she might not be willing to again deal with scourges upon society like the Arizona legislature, the Goldwater Institute, and the Center for Arizona Policy.

Gabrielle Giffords, former member of Congress:
- Con: still recovering from a horrific assassination attempt that took the lives of six people, including a small child, and injured more than a dozen other people.
- Pro: if her recovery, already nothing short of miraculous, progresses well enough for her to handle the rigors of the job, and she actually wants the job, the election will be less a contest than a walk-over.

Harry Mitchell, former member of Congress:
- Con: after nearly five decades of public service, he may have reached the point of his life where he is ready to leave the "top of the ballot" stuff - walking precincts and making appearances on the rubber chicken circuit to those with younger legs and digestive tracts.
- Pro: one of the most respected people in Arizona politics, and one of the few left where the respect genuinely crosses partisan lines.

Phil Gordon, former mayor of Phoenix -
- Pro: still has an effective organization and base of support in what is the largest city and county in the state.
- Con: the Rs despise him, and he is far from popular with grassroots Ds, even in Maricopa County, outside of Phoenix.

Greg Stanton, current mayor of Phoenix -
- Pro: also has an effective organization and base of support in what is the largest city and county in the state.  In addition, he is so new that he hasn't had time to tick off grassroots Ds.
- Con: the Rs despise him, despite knowing next to nothing about him (other than that he isn't one of them), and he is young by political standards.
- Pro2: he may be too young/new for an effective run in 2014, but 2018 and 2022 are well within the realm of realistic possibility.

Felecia Rotellini, 2010 candidate for attorney general -
- Pro: while she didn't win in 2010, she had the best performance of any D candidate during that cycle and garnered a lot of respect across the political spectrum.  She's smart, energetic, and universally well-liked among Democrats.  It helps that the guy who won the 2010 election, Tom Horne, is widely considered to be a sleazeball and is under federal investigation for campaign finance violations.
Con - while she's been a public servant before, she has never actually held elected office.  Like Napolitano before her, a term as AG might be necessary to elevate her name recognition among the general public before running for the top spot.

Sandra Kennedy, current member of the Arizona Corporation Commission -
- Pro: intelligent, experienced and one of only two Democrats to hold statewide elected office.
- Con: as with Brenda Burns in the previous post, the ACC isn't the highest-profile perch from which to launch a run at a high-profile job.  Unlike Burns however, Kennedy actually does some good work for the people of AZ, and as such, she doesn't have access to scads of corporate money.

Other names that may come up in conversation:

Rep. Chad Campbell, House minority leader: smart but young enough that like Stanton above, 2014 may be too soon; Kyrsten Sinema, former state legislator and current candidate for Congress: also young, and has her sights set much higher than the 9th floor of the Executive Tower; Steve Gallardo, state legislator: could go for it in 2014, but young enough to wait until 2018/2022 and use the time to both consolidate and expand his base of support; Ruben Gallego, state legislator:  if the others are young by political standards, he's a bambino.  A bambino with ambition, however.  2014 is too soon, and 2018/2022 may also be too soon, but after that...?; Neil Giuliano, former Republican and former mayor of Tempe:  made noises about a run in 2010, but was pretty much unknown outside of Tempe.  Would need to elevate his name rec among the general public.

A couple of wildcards:

Sue Gerard and Kris Mayes, the former head of the state Department of Health Services and chair of the Arizona Corporation Commission, respectively.  They're Republicans who have actually done good work for the people of Arizona.  As such, they'd never get through a Republican primary in the current political environment.  Not likely to even consider becoming Democrats, but given the amount of respect that people have for them, they could make things interesting.

Later...

AZ's electeds holding their collective breath

The USDOJ filed a motion in their case against Rep. Ben Arredondo, one Arredondo agreed with, to keep records of the investigation secret in order to protect some ongoing investigations.

From the Arizona Capitol Times, written by Gary Grado -

...A motion filed Wednesday in U.S. District Court by DOJ attorney Monique Abrishami asks Judge Fredrick Martone to issue a protective order for “all discovery materials provided in this matter.”

“If this information were to be disclosed, such disclosure might impede those investigations which are ongoing and/or impair the privacy rights of third parties whose conduct is or was at one time under investigation,” Abrishami wrote.

The motion sort of confirms what I've heard - that the feds aren't done with AZ's electeds, not by a long shot.  One person I spoke with, a Capitol insider, thought more indictments were possible, and if they happen, they may reach beyond the legislative level of government.

Given that Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio is under investigation, Arizona Attorney General Tom Horne is under investigation, and a number of legislators and lobbyists were named in the report on the Fiesta Bowl scandal (while they almost certainly won't be indicted for any activities documented in the report, the behavior documented therein is the kind that continues until the voters or the courts put a stop to it), those expectations shouldn't be surprising.

And those are just the investigations/allegations that have gained public notice.

The saying "where there's smoke, there's fire" takes on a special meaning in Arizona, especially in the summer.  Most summers, that saying just warns people to be on the lookout for forest fires.

This summer, however, it serves as a warning to keep an eye out on people and situations who have some metaphorical smoke swirling around them.

Will the next USDOJ moves be in the area of the mess in Quartzsite?  Will they step into Colorado City and do the things that need to be done but that are blocked by some suspiciously intransigent Arizona legislators?  Will they finally catch up to a certain somebody who is known for skating on the fine line between behavior that is unethical but legal and behavior that is simply unethical?

My guess is that a number of AZ's electeds, from town/city councils on up, are praying that the bright spotlight of a federal investigation isn't turned their way.  For possible clues as to who might be next on the feds' hit parade, watch the turning in of nominating petitions next week for any "big names" (i.e. - somebody like Russell Pearce, who has had smoke swirling around him for years) who surprise by *not* submitting petitions.

Arizona Republic coverage is here.  It isn't good as Grado's as it is mostly a rehash of the indictment with little insight into the current motion before the court, but there is no telling when the Cap Times will put their story behind a subscriber firewall.

Early speculation time: 2014 Governor's race

What with Governor Jan Brewer looking to weasel her way into a run for a third term and AZ Secretary of State Ken Bennett trying to clear the primary field for his run for governor (he has since backed off a little, but look for more moves like his attempt to knock President Obama off of the ballot), it's time to start talking about who might be running for governor in 2014.

Yes, it is early, but since at this point of this year's election cycle, it's "hurry up and wait" time until we see which candidates become known as candidates who couldn't get their signature in... :)

Also, this list is limited to those folks who have held office already or have made a serious impression in the metaphorical public square; rich people who believe that they can just buy the seat (yes that's you, Buz Mills) aren't included, mostly because I don't know their names.

On to the speculation, Republican candidates first (and it's just that - no actual persons were spoken to for this post.  I don't know the actual plans or wishes of the people mentioned in the post) -

Jan Brewer, current governor -
- Pro: probably has the highest name recognition among Republicans, other than perhaps Joe Arpaio.
- Con: that pesky Arizona Constitution.

Tom Horne, current attorney general -
- Pro: he hasn't been indicted or disbarred yet.
- Con: it's still early.

Ken Bennett, current secretary of state -
- Pro: until the last week, he was considered to be one of the few sane Republicans in Arizona politics
- Con: the events of the last week.  Turns out that kissing up to the birthers quickly moves one into the "batshit crazy" category.

John Huppenthal, current superintendent of public instruction -
- Pro (at least as far as R primary voters are concerned): hates people with brown skin, hates public education, and hates education for people with brown skin.
- Con: in a general election, people with brown skin, educated people, and educated people with brown skin can and do vote.

Doug Ducey, current state treasurer -
- Pro: no one knows who he is, and given that you only know any treasurer's name when the police and prosecutors get involved, that's a good thing.
- Con: no one knows who he is, and given that being a down-ballot candidate in a Republican wave year (2010) is very different than being a top-of-the-ballot candidate in what looks to be a tough year, that's not such a good thing.

Steve Pierce, current president of the state senate -
- Pro: hey, he's a rural kind of guy, yeehaw!, and he's more civil than his predecessor.
- Con: Prescott, in northern AZ, may not provide the strongest power base for a statewide run.  Most of the state's population is in the central and southern parts of the state.

Andy Tobin, current speaker of the state house of representatives -
- Pro: hey, he's a rural kind of guy, yeehaw!, and he's...a rural kind of guy.  Yeehaw. :)
- Con: his base of operations is near Prescott, only smaller.  And he's a Yankees fan.

Brenda Burns, current member of the corporation commission -
- Pro: a darling of ALEC (former president of it), has access to scads of corporate money.
- Con: an ACC slot may be a statewide office, but it's so low-profile that only hardcore political junkies and lobbyists can name them.  And with the murder of Trayvon Martin, rationalized by Florida's ALEC/NRA-pushed kill at will "stand your ground" law, the ALEC connections may not be so fruitful for the next few years.

Joe Arpaio, current sheriff of Maricopa County -
- Pro: highest name recognition among AZ's Republicans.  Everybody has heard of him and has an opinion of him.
- Con: not all of those opinions are positive.  Not hardly.  If he hasn't been indicted by then, he'll publicly flirt with a run (he does every four years), but even he knows that he wouldn't last in a job with serious scrutiny from the media and the public.  Note:  there is a big difference between "scrutiny" and "mindless adoration".

Other names that might come up in conversation:

- Hugh Hallman, soon to be former mayor of Tempe - wants it, but in a statewide race, would have trouble winning even his own home town.

- Jay Tibshraeny and Scott Smith - the mayors of Chandler and Mesa respectively.  Thoroughly conservative, but have still been able to do some good work for their municipalities.  Given that current R orthodoxy calls for contempt for actual public servants, they could never get through a primary (and there *will* be one in 2014).

- John Shadegg, former member of Congress.  Last seen in some kind of role with the Goldwater Institute; not sure if he would take a job with less influence at the Capitol.


When I get bored again (a couple of days), I'll do a post on possible Democratic candidates.  It won't be as snarky. :))

Ken Bennett learning lessons at Mitt Romney's knee

...And so crappie season begins...

Mitt Romney is renowned for his penchant to change his position on an issue, any issue, when he thinks it may be politically expedient.

He may be the consummate flip-flopper in American politics today.

Now Ken Bennett, Arizona's Secretary of State and Romney's campaign co-chair in AZ, is flip-flopping on a fundamental issue for his own political expediency.

From the Arizona Republic, written by Yvonne Wingett Sanchez -

Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett, who oversees state elections, reversed his stance on endorsing candidates this election cycle, saying detractors would still criticize him based on endorsements he made years ago.

During a televised debate with his Democratic opponent in 2010, Bennett, a Republican, told the audience it was improper for elections officials to weigh in on partisan issues.

Bennett is now co-chairman for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's Arizona campaign.

"I do not feel it's appropriate that I take a position on either the propositions that the voters will be voting on, or endorsing candidates in elections," Bennett said.

Bennett has gone far beyond merely flip-flopping on the issue by endorsing Romney; he has crossed a serious ethical line by using his office to attempt to remove President Obama from the Arizona ballot to ensure that his candidate, Romney, has a clear path to Arizona's 10 electoral votes.

He truly deserves to be removed from office for abusing it so, but that is beyond my power as an individual.  That will be up to the voters in 2014 (maybe sooner if his arrogance in office inspires a recall drive).

Still, I can only award him the first Crappie Award of 2012 for the flip-flop.

For his shamelessly acrobatic flip-flop, Ken Bennett wins the most (not) cherished award of the election season - The Crappie...

Hey, at least Bennett and the rest of the birthers shouldn't have reason to whine about this particular type of crappie - this particular breed of crappie is called the "white crappie."

John Washington for mayor of Scottsdale

Even before the mayoral candidate forum held on Thursday night, I was leaning toward supporting John Washington for Mayor of Scottsdale. 


Thursday's forum confirmed and strengthened that support.

One candidate, Jim Lane, is the incumbent.  He has a track record of kowtowing to lobbying group the Goldwater Institute to the point of ignoring neighborhood interests and desires in favor of implementing GI's preferred policies.

Another candidate, Drew Bernhardt, seems to be less about substance and more about trying to tap the vein of nostalgia that runs deep in a certain segment of Scottsdale's population.

To be fair, that tactic may have been effective with Thursday's audience, which was skewed heavily toward the Medicare/Social Security-eligible, "why can't Scottsdale be like it was when it had 2000 people, 200 hitching rails and 2 paved roads?" demographic.

However, it was grating to hear him constantly refer to Scottsdale as a "town".

In fact, Scottsdale hasn't been a town in decades.  According to the City's own website, by 1970, the city's population had reached nearly 68,000, the size of a small city, but a city nonetheless.

According to the last federal census, it has more than 217,000 residents.

That's not a small town, that's a small big city.

In short, Bernhardt is a north Scottsdale newbie who is hoping that the voters south of Shea Boulevard will vote for him while ignoring the fact that he offers them nothing beyond nostalgic but empty rhetoric.

On the other hand, John Washington has cut his political teeth by working at the grassroots level for the protection and betterment of Scottsdale's neighborhoods and Scottsdale as a whole.

His love of Scottsdale isn't a revelation timed for campaign season.  I've been writing this blog for more than six years.  I met him at the first community meeting that I covered in 2006, and he was active in the community long before that.

Then as now, he talks *to* (and listens to) and works *with* people, in contrast to many electeds/candidates, who talk *at* and work *around* people.  Even when disagreeing with people, he is civil and genuinely friendly; he doesn't turn disagreement into personal animosity.

Washington (seated), before the forum began Thursday night








Unlike say, the current mayor, who had Washington removed from Scottsdale's Airport Advisory Commission when Washington expressed concerns, and continued expressions of concern even after being told to "sit down and shut up", over the mayor's (and the city council's) repeated approvals of high-density residential projects that encroach upon Scottsdale's airport.

In terms of personal political ideology, he's more of libertarian than anything else (not sure of his actual registration however - he may be Libertarian, Republican, or Independent), but local politics is practical politics.  It's about getting good things done for the city and its residents, something that Lane has forgotten (if he ever knew it in the first place) and that Bernhardt doesn't seem to even care to know.

To be clear, when (OK, *if* :) ) he becomes mayor, many of Washington's positions will drive me nuts (libertarian that he is :) ).

However, while we may disagree on how best to protect and improve Scottsdale, we agree on the ultimate objective.

That alone makes John Washington the best candidate to be the next mayor of Scottsdale.

And when you add in the genuine friendliness and deep affection for Scottsdale? 

Washington becames the best candidate to be the next great mayor of Scottsdale.



If you're interested, information on helping Washington get on the ballot, donating to his campaign, or just contacting him can be found here.

Ken Bennett sews up wingnut vote in 2014 R primary by jumping on the birther bandwagon

From AZCentral.com, written by Yvonne Wingett Sanchez -

Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett has asked government officials in Hawaii to verify that Barack Obama was born in the island state for the president's name to appear on the Nov. 6 ballot.

Bennett, who is exploring a 2014 gubernatorial run, told The Republic on Friday that he made the request on behalf of a constituent who was unable to make the request himself. Bennett said Hawaii statute provides for out-of-state government officials to request such information, but prohibits residents from obtaining it.

Bennett, who is Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's Arizona campaign co-chairman, asked that Hawaii officials provide "verification" of Obama's birth in lieu of a certified copy of the president's birth certificate.

Bennett is "exploring" a run for governor in 2014 (Jan Brewer will be termed out as governor and Bennett will be termed out as SOS).

Looks like he has learned the lesson from Brewer's 2010  campaign.  Bennett may not have an "SB1070" up his sleeve to use to clear the GOP field for him, but a little birther-motivated election rigging should go a long way toward accomplishing that goal.

Yes, it's election-rigging.  What else can it be called when one candidate's campaign co-chair abuses his position of public trust to try to knock his candidate's opponent off of the ballot?

If this doesn't work well enough, maybe Bennett can see a UFO or become a 9-11 "truther".  That should get him the votes of former governor Fife Symington and former state senate Karen Johnson.

For the record: