Things I'm grateful for today...

Among the things that I'm grateful for today -

...John Edwards' admission that he had an affair. Not that I'm glad that he had the affair (and my sympathies go out to Elizabeth Edwards and the Edwards family), but it's forced the MSM to break away from their wall-to-wall coverage of the Brett Favre unretirement saga.

...God knows that I *never* thought I would be in a position to say this, but I'm grateful for Paris Hilton this week. Her response to a McCain ad that compared Barack Obama to her and Britney Spears made the McCain campaign look like a bunch of ignorant fools. Yup, the McCainiacs got punked by a celebutante; when they sit around and evaluate their efforts this week, they're going to have to admit that they came off looking like the intellectual (and comedic!) inferiors to someone best known for her partying and for her DUI busts, all while not looking as good ("wrinkly white-haired guy" LOL).

...Yet another incumbent GOP congressman lost in a primary race, this time in Tennessee. Outgoing (and now disgruntled) Rep. David Davis blamed Democrats for his loss, conveniently ignoring the fact that his opponent successfully tied him to Big Oil. This situation might give John Shadegg and his cohorts pause - while they showboat on the House floor in an attempt to place the blame for energy prices on Democrats, even other Republicans know where the blame belongs.

...Regarding the State Senate race in LD18, the Republicans there are turning on each other with a viciousness normally reserved for Democrats and Mexicans. There have been duelling press releases, mailers, countermailers, robo-calls, email blasts, and blog posts (here, too). And all of that doesn't even include the invective that supporters of each candidate have been throwing at the other candidate and the other candidate's supporters directly. Shark Week may be officially over, but whenever Nathan Sproul is involved (AZ's Karl Rove wanna-be), there's always chum in the water or mail box.

So what can a Democrat or Independent do?

How 'bout grab some popcorn, enjoy the show, and remember to vote for Judah Nativio and Tammie Pursley in November.


What? You read the title of this post and were expecting something sappy and syrupy? You ought to know better by now. :))

Later...

Mail Call...

Time for the second of this year's "mail call" posts, and this one is a big one - the primary ballot is here.

While exciting for political geeks, the ballot itself is actually a bit of a disappointment - the Democratic ballot in the LD17 section of Scottsdale contains as many "no candidate races" as it does actual primary contests.

There are four contests - Corporation Commission, Maricopa County Attorney, Mayor of Scottsdale, and Scottsdale City Council (those last two are non-partisan races - they're on all ballots in Scottsdale.)

Uncontested by Democratic candidates are the offices of Maricopa County Recorder, Assessor, School Superintendent, and Treasurer.

Those seats haven't been contested by Democrats since before 2000, the earliest I could find results for on the Maricopa County Recorder's website.

Now, these offices aren't exactly the highest profile offices. I can only name the holder of one of them - Helen Purcell, the County Recorder.

And that's only because, political geek that I am :) , I spend so much time on her office's website.
As for the rest of them, they're notable mostly when they do something that they shouldn't.

Having said that, in spite of the relative anonymity of the jobs, it's still disappointing that no challengers could be found (hey! To anyone who is considering a run for office, you might want to consider this - state legislators earn $24K per year; the four county officer positions mentioned in this post earn over $67K per year. Just something to think about...)

Anyway, I'll mull over the choices on the primary ballot (the County Attorney and Scottsdale City Council races are especially tough) and fill out and return my ballot in the next week or so.

This post does provide a good excuse to list the contact info for the various Democratic candidates on ballots in Scottsdale, Tempe, and west Mesa (all info courtesy the candidates' websites or their AZ Rep questionnaires) -

Congressman Harry Mitchell (CD5)
http://www.harry2008.com/
123 East Baseline Road (SE corner of Mill and Baseline)
Suite D-102
Tempe
480-755-3343
info@harry2008.com

Representative David Schapira (LD17)
480-626-8100
http://www.davidforaz.com/ds/index.htm
info@davidforaz.com

Representative Ed Ableser (LD17)
http://www.edableser.com/
1-877-868-3392
info@edableser.com

Ed Hermes, candidate for SD1 County Supervisor
http://www.edhermes.com/Home.html
7305 W. Boston
Chandler
480-626-8100

Joel Sinclaire, candidate for SD2 County Supervisor
25249 North Ranch Gate Road
Scottsdale, AZ 85255
(602) 821-3800
Joel@ElectSinclaire.com
ElectSinclaire.com

Stephanie Rimmer, candidate for State Representative (LD8)
http://www.stephanierimmer.com/
stephanie@stephanierimmer.com
602.432.2486

Judah Nativio, candidate for State Senator (LD18)
http://www.electnativio.com/
3440 East Southern Ave. #1109
Mesa AZ 85204 480-861-2160
judah@electnativio.com

Tammie Pursley, candidate for State Representative (LD18)
http://www.pursleyforchange.com/08/
(602) 373-1707
1544 N. 1st Place
Mesa, AZ 85201

Dan Saban, candidate for County Sheriff
602-390-3136
http://www.sabanforsheriff.com/2008
info@sabanforsheriff.com

Gerald Richard, candidate for County Attorney
4003 E. Agave Rd.
Phoenix, Arizona 85044
602-513-2743
http://richardforcountyattorney.com/
info@richardforcountyattorney.com

Tim Nelson, candidate for County Attorney
4340 East Indian School Road
Suite 21-119
Phoenix, AZ 85018
(602) 672-2938
http://www.timnelson2008.com/
info@richardforcountyattorney.com

For more information on candidates for statewide office or in other LDs, visit the AZ Dems' website.

More odds and ends (like some canvasses this weekend)...

...This being the last full weekend before ballots start getting sent out to voters who are voting early/by mail, there are a number of canvasses planned for Saturday. All start at 8:30 a.m.

In Tempe, volunteers should meet at the Tempe Coordinated Campaign office, 123 W. Baseline (SE corner of Mill and Baseline). For more information, contact Devon Canode, 336-287-9923.

In Mesa, volunteers should meet at the GEMDEMS office, 7141 E. Main St. Join House candidate Tammie Pursley and Senate candidate Judah Nativio, among others, as they work to turn LD18 Blue. For more information, contact Ben[at]electjudah.com or kweatherford[at]azdem.org.

In Phoenix, volunteers have a couple of different options - meet at the campaign office of CD3 candidate Bob Lord (4736 N 44th St.) or at the AZ Dems' HQ (2910 N Central Ave.). For more info, contact the AZ Dems at (602) 298-4200.

On Sunday, Ed Hermes, candidate for County Supervisor, will be joining forces with Phil Hettmansberger, candidate for LD21 State Representative, to walk and knock in LD21. For more info, contact Bob and Kirsten, Ed's volunteer coordinators at 616.283.9362.

There are other canvassing opportunities in other parts of the valley and the state; contact the ADP or your county party for more details.


...In Democratic primary news, Gerald Richard and Tim Nelson, candidates for Maricopa County Attorney will meet twice next week in candidate debates/forums.

- On Tuesday, July 29, the League of Women Voters will hold a debate at Central High School in Phoenix (4525 N Central Ave). The event starts at 7:00 p.m. For more info, contact the MCDP at 602-298-0503.

- On Thursday, July 31, the Foothills Democrats will be holding a candidate forum in Scottsdale at the Legend Trail Community Center, 34575 N Legend Trail Pkwy. The event starts at 7:00 p.m. For more info, contact the Foothills Democrats at 602-234-6590.


...Another dispatch from the "all politics is local" field office -

Mike McClellan of Mesa regularly writes for the AZ Republic. On Thursday, a piece he wrote on Republican State Rep. Andy Biggs went up on the Rep's website.

Turns out that Biggs, one of the most ardently conservative members of the lege, screwed over his own constituents in Gilbert during a recent controversy over fire protection services for unincorporated county islands. (Read the whole piece at the link above for details.)

Wouldn't it be ironic if Biggs was bounced out of his seat in the lege not because of partisan considerations (though Democrat Glenn Ray will be waiting for him if Biggs makes it through the four-way primary for two seats), but because he forgot one of the basic rules of retaining elected office - don't get caught stabbing your constituents in the back when you need to run for election again.

It'll be interesting to see if one or more of Biggs' challengers in the Rep primary use the fire district issue against him.

Stay tuned...


...Is the political tide beginning to turn on nativists? At least, one of the wings of the Republican Party is turning on them...

In LD18, an independent expenditure political action committee, Judgment Matters, has been formed with the stated intent to oppose Russell Pearce's (R - National Alliance). (PolitickerAZ) candidacy for state senate.

The group is seeking donations to mount an advertising campaign against Pearce's candidacy. According to the group's filings with the AZ Secretary of State, it is headed up by business attorney J. Mark Ogden and apparently has political consultant Farrell Quinlan as its spokesman. Quinlan is the former vice president of the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry. The fun part is that none of the people involved seem to be Democrats - Ogden represents businesses in conflicts with labor, and Quinlan is a long-time Republican. Just read his blog, Willet Creek Dam.

OK, so now it's official - the 2-way LD18 State Senate Republican primary is more contentious than the 6-way fight in the CD5 Republican primary. (Though this Knaperek-supporting blog is doing its best to change that.)

Anybody got some popcorn?? :))


...As I type this, C-SPAN is broadcasting a meeting of the House Judiciary Committee hearing on executive power and the Bush Administration.

Watching this has made something very clear -

Bush and/or Cheney are not going to be impeached, no matter how much it's justified. While the House could pass articles of impeachment by a simple majority (50% + 1), it takes a 2/3 vote in the Senate to convict; that will never happen.

As is clear from the Republicans on the committee, led by Mike Pence of Indiana, this president could walk out on the Capitol Mall at high noon, put a match to the Constitution, and dance around it while it burns in front of the throng of tourists, and all they would do about it is to hand Bush a bag of marshmallows and a stick.


Later!

Stranger in a strange land

Not the classic Heinlein novel, just me attending a Republican candidate forum in LD18. :)

The four Republican candidates for the two LD18 House seats (Kanani Henderson, Ron Middlebrook, Cecil Ash, and Steve Court) and the two Rep candidates for the LD18 Senate seat (Kevin Gibbons and Russell Pearce) attended the Clean Elections primary forum in the EVIT auditorium on Thursday night.

The 100 or so audience members, while more ethnically and politically diverse than I had originally anticipated, definitely trended toward the "pale nativist" demographic (more on that in a moment).

I won't try to do a complete recap of the forum - the event video will be posted on the Clean Elections website within a few days for those who are interested in the full forum.

However, some of the "highpoints" included -

...Prior to the event, I passed by a beat-up van with the Arizona licence plate "CUTGOVT."

Wonder if the owner of that vehicle or the government employees who processed and issued that plate appreciated the irony there.

...Also prior to the event, a woman handed me a printed copy of this New Times' article that warned of a planned nativist rally at the forum.

Not sure if there was a "rally" per se, but they were definitely out in force.

As were the police.

,,,During a forum question regarding illegal immigration, one audience member shouted out that illegal immigrants should be sent to the gas chamber.

I wish I was kidding about that.


Anyway, the forum's sponsor was the Children's Action Alliance, and its CEO, Dana Naimark, kicked off the forum while Alberto Olivas of the Maricopa Community Colleges Center for Public Policy moderated the forum.

First up were the candidates for representative; while there were differences between them, those differences were less substantive than nuanced. Not a moderate among them.

Ron Middlebrook is a Republican PC from the same precinct as Russell Pearce (Mesa 16) and he is an ideologue straight out of the Pearce mold. When asked what he hoped to accomplish in the lege, he started sounding off on liberal activist federal judges. He wants to amend the U.S. Constitution to exempt states from compliance with federal court rulings.

Guess he doesn't realize that he's running for the *Arizona* House of Representatives.

Like Pearce, he supports balancing the state's budget by overturning voter-approved measures that mandate spending on specific issues (like children's health care!)

When asked what he thought the state could do to combat the high drop out rate in Arizona's schools, he blamed illegal immigrants for the high rate.

A quick read of his website makes me wonder if he might be one of those illegal immigrant high school dropouts that he bemoaned - on it, he writes of his support of "boarder" security (not a typo there - he does it twice) and that he believes that (emphasis mine) "Nothing would do more to improve the quality of education in our stare than vouchers."

To sum up - he's Russell Pearce without the term limits.


Cecil Ash is also a PC (Mesa 94). His answers to the questions were a bit more thoughtful than Middlebrook's, but he often fell back on Republican cliches ("private industry is better than the government", "seal the border", etc.)

His best response was to a question about how to reduce the high turnover of state employees - he questioned the underlying premise of the question, wondering that perhaps the real problem wasn't employee turnover, it was employees staying in their positions (and on the public payroll!) for too long.

BTW - In this context "best" is short for "best shows his cluelessness on this particular issue." "Best" has fewer syllables, which is why I chose to use it. :)


Retired businessman Steve Court stuck to the party line - he wants to rein in the state's budget, fix the state's failing public school system with "magnet" schools and vouchers, and ease government regulation of businesses.


The fourth House candidate, Kanani Henderson, is the director of a school tuition organization (STO) (an STO is an organization designed to funnel taxpayer money to private schools under the guise of 'school choice.') She was also, perhaps, the most polished of the four candidates. While her answers were pure party rhetoric, they had depth and relevance (the significance of that was made obvious during the Senate portion of the forum - more on that later :) ).

With her answers, she tended to hit the neocon high points (Reagan, pro-life, and, of course, school choice). However, her best answer was also to the state employee turnover question mentioned above (same meaning of "best" as above, too) -

She suggested that the best way to reduce the turnover of state employees was to "find people who are passionate about handing out drivers licenses and delivering mail".

She may have been sarcastic with her "passionate" comment (I'm not sure) but she needs her campaign manager or somebody she trusts to sit her down and gently break the news to her - post office employees are *not* state employees. If she wins election to the lege and tries to mess with them, all she'll get for her trouble is a visit from some postal inspectors and maybe the FBI.

Regarding ballot propositions, all four expressed strong support for the lege-pushed ban on same sex marriage, expressed support for the payday loan industry-supported proposition to permanently legalize that business (they expressed distaste for the business, but their "free market" ideals overrode any desire to regulate predatory lenders), and opposed the measure on imposing a transportation-dedicated sales tax (TIME initiative.) They also generally opposed a hypothetical move to earmark state money to help the growth of Phoenix/Mesa Gateway Airport, however, they left enough wiggle room in their positions to allow for a change depending on specific circumstances.

In summary, Ron Middlebrook was easily the most extreme of the four, but other three were no slouches in the "more conservative than thee" department - they all make Barry Goldwater look like a RINO. Additionally, none of them talked about representing the district, only about their conservative principles.

In other words, they're all obedient little ideologues.


The Senate part of the forum was at once shorter and more colorful. Both candidates, Kevin Gibbons and Russell Pearce, frequently gave answers that were both apocryphal and irrelevent.

They also didn't appreciate the irony in some of their answers. For instance, when asked what they thought were some of the good things that the lege had done recently, and what were some of the mistakes, both said that the lege hasn't done much right recently.

And both conveniently neglected to note that their party has controlled the lege since God covered Arizona in dust and cactus needles.

Other highlights included Russell Pearce saying that "the bloated welfare state" was responsible for there being children in America without health insurance/care and that the "free market" could address the problem; a few moments later, Kevin Gibbons admitted that for a brief period when he and his wife were just starting a family and he was still a student at ASU, they were on AHCCCS.

Perhaps the biggest area of disagreement between the two was Pearce's whole-hearted support of the employer sanctions anti-immigrant law that he wrote (not exactly a surprise, that) and Gibbons' call to "revisit" the law (a position that elicited gasps from multiple audience members).

Toward the end, some of the discussion got a little more directly personal.

For instance, Gibbons said that one of the things that he wanted to do was change the "tone" at the lege, and that Pearce was part of the reason that the lege was so dysfunctional.

This also elicited gasps from some audience members, but I'm not sure why. Both Pearce and Gibbons are running for the same office and they obviously don't like each other very much. Anybody who was shocked that one directly criticized the other needs to get out more.

Summary of the candidates' presentations:

Pearce may not have answered all of the questions directly, but he stay on message the whole time - blame immigrants for everything and scare people with public safety concerns. His ability to stay focused made it obvious that he's been through this before.

Gibbons, on the other hand, made it painfully clear that he is a political neophyte. Many of his answers were either irrelevent to the question he had been asked, or were "lawyer" answers - lots of words, little meaning.

He did, however, have the best line of the night - he observed that for all of Pearce's small government rhetoric, he has spent the vast majority of his adult life feeding at the public trough through one government job or another. Gibbons said that he was working to give Pearce a couple of years off to experience the private sector.

OK, so it was funnier in person there than in writing here. :))



Other notes -

The CCEC forum for the general election has been scheduled for September 17 and will include both of the Democratic candidates for LD18, Tammie Pursley (House) and Judah Nativio (Senate).

Both Democratic candidates, as well as a number of their supporters, were in attendance at the forum.

I spoke briefly with them, and both Pursley and Nativio are nearly done collecting their 5s for Clean Elections funding; both advised that anyone interested in helping them reach their goal should visit their websites (linked above) for the forms and contribution information.

In addition, while website for Pursley is currently a Facebook page, her campaign site, Pursleyforchange.com, is scheduled to go live within a few days. Check back there for updates.


Anyway, this post has taken wayyyyy longer than I planned, and I need to get some sleep.

Later!

Events Calendar

Tuesday, July 8 is going to be a busy day for the politically active in the Scottsdale/Tempe area -

...The District 17 Democrats will be meeting at the Pyle Center, 655 E. Southern Ave. (SW corner of Southern and Rural).

Time - Info exchange 6:30 p.m.; meeting 7:00 p.m.
Contact - Doug Mings, chair of D17, dougmings[at]gmail.com

Come and meet other local Democrats and get involved with local, county, state, and national politics!


...There will be an open forum for candidates for County Attorney at Changing Hands Bookstore, 6428 S. McClintock, Tempe (SW corner of McClintock and Guadalupe). Both Democratic candidates, Gerald Richard and Tim Nelson, plan to be there.

Time - 7:00 p.m.
Contact - the bookstore at 480-730-0205


...And in Scottsdale, the Scottsdale City Council will meet for the last time before their summer break. The agenda is a long one, so there will be plenty of opportunities for candidates (both incumbents and challengers) to see, be seen, preen and posture one more time before early ballots hit mailboxes in early August.

Time - 5:00 p.m.
Place - City Hall Kiva, 3939 N. Drinkwater Blvd.


...On Thursday, July 10, the Citizens Clean Elections Commission (CCEC) will be holding a candidate forum for Republican House and Senate candidates in LD18.

Time - 6:00 p.m. until 8:00 p.m.
Place - The EVIT Lecture Hall, 1601 W Main St., Mesa, AZ.

Could be interesting, if you consider watching Republicans trying to out-wingnut each other to be high art (yup, as I do :) ).

Seriously, expect the hardcore nativists in LD18 to be out in force to both support Russell Pearce in his bid for the State Senate and to heckle and harass his opponent Kevin Gibbons (Congressman Jeff Flake's brother-in-law) for the heresy of not hating immigrants as much as they do.

Note: As Democratic candidates Judah Nativio (Senate) and Tammie Pursley (House) are unopposed in the primary, CCEC won't be holding a forum for their primary.

A listing of other CCEC forums can be found here.


...Saturday, July 19 - The summer meeting of the Maricopa County Democratic Party (MCDP).

Time - 9:00 a.m. to noon for training sessions; 1:00 p.m. to 3:00 p.m. for the meeting.
Place - Plumbers and Steamfitters Union, 3109 North 24th Street, Phoenix.
Contact - MCDP at 602.298.0503


Later!

Campaign Finance Reports - LD8, LD17, LD18

All info courtesy the website of the Arizona Secretary of State...

LD8 State Senate -

Carolyn Allen, Republican (traditional financing) - raised $22000, spent $8000, cash on hand $68000. Interesting names: Her entire list of contributors reads like a "Who's Who" of the Arizona business community (heavy on the healthcare sector), so in the interests of brevity, I won't list any of them, but one of the non-business community folks to contribute to her campaign was David Waid, former ED of the Arizona Democratic Party, who gave $100.

Robert Weber, Libertarian (Clean Elections financing) - Nada. Zip. Bupkes. No activity. At all. When I saw this report, I was going to question why go to the effort of getting on the ballot if he wasn't going to at least *try* to mount a campaign, but upon further reflection, I've decided not to go there.

Not because I'm feeling nice, but because Mr. Weber didn't actually qualify for the ballot.


LD8 State Representative -

Michele Reagan, Republican (Traditional) - Raised $11000, spent $11000, cash on hand of just under $46000. Interesting name: David Waid (again!) gave $200.

Stephanie Rimmer, Democrat (Clean Elections) - Raised $2000, spent $1600, cash on hand of $400.

John Kavanagh, Republican (Clean Elections) - Raised $930, spent slightly less than $400, cash on hand slightly more than $500.


LD17 State Senate -

Meg Burton Cahill, Democrat (Clean Elections) - Raised almost $2900. spent $86, cash on hand of a little more than $2700.

Jesse Hernandez, Republican (Clean Elections) - Raised $250, spent $0, cash on hand $250.


LD17 State Representative -

David Schapira, Democrat (Clean Elections) - Raised $16000 ($12921 CCEC funding), spent $2500, cash on hand $14200.

Ed Ableser, Democrat (Clean Elections) - Raised $14600 ($12921 CCEC funding), spent $2400, cash on hand $12600.

Wes Waddle, Republican (Clean Elections) - Raised $500, spent $150, cash on hand $350.

Mark Thompson, Republican (Clean Elections) - Raised $1200, spent $100, cash on hand $1100.


LD18 State Senate -

Judah Nativio, Democrat (Clean Elections) - Raised $960, spent just under $800, cash on hand of just under $800.

Kevin Gibbons, Republican (Traditional) - Raised $66000, spent $3500, cash on hand of just under $63000. Interesting names: State Rep. Lynne Pancrazi donated $200; Jean McGrath, former legislator and current member of the Central Arizona Water Conservation District board, gave $100; Jim Pederson, former Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate gave $390. In addition, he had a large number of agriculture-related contributors, a large group from Yuma, of all places.

Russell Pearce, Republican (Clean Elections) - Raised $2300, spent $24000 ($23K had to do with closing the books on the Pearce Exploratory Committee), cash on hand $2600. Received $19382 CCEC funding after the reporting period ended.

I thought that Pearce's exploratory committee was a federal one formed for his abortive run at Jeff Flake's CD6 seat, so I'm not sure why anything related to it is showing up on his state report. I'll see what I can find out (aka - I'll call the Secretary of State's office and ask :) ).


LD18 Representative -

Tammie Pursley, Democrat (Clean Elections) - Raised $1700, spent $350, cash on hand of $1300.

Cecil Ash, Republican (Clean Elections) - Raised $2950, spent $800, cash on hand of $2150. Received $19382 CCEC funding after the reporting period ended.

Steve Court, Republican (Clean Elections) -Raised almost $14700 ($12921 CCEC), spent $6500, cash on hand $8200. Received supplemental CCEC funding of $6461 ($19382 total) after the reporting period ended.

Kanani Henderson, Republican (Traditional) - Raised $1300, spent $260, cash on hand of nearly $1100.

Ron Middlebrook, Republican (Clean Elections) - Raised $1245, spent $0, cash on hand $1245. Received $19382 CCEC funding after the reporting period ended.


CCEC's LD18 candidate forum for Republican candidates (House and Senate) will be held on Thursday, July 10 at EVIT, 1601 W. Main St., Mesa, AZ from 6:00 p.m until 8:00 p.m.


I'll do a post on Corporation Commission candidate reports later on Thursday.

Later!

Here and there...

Some of this stuff has been posted elsewhere, some hasn't...

...The big event tomorrow, Friday June 27, will be held at the grand opening of John McCain's regional campaign headquarters.

Event: A gathering of Democrats to "celebrate" (aka - "protest") the opening of McCain's campaign's office.

Time: 5:00 p.m. - 7:30 p.m.
Place: 5353 N. 16th Street, Phoenix (just south of Missouri on 16th Street)***
Info: Contact Aaron at the Arizona Democratic Party, 602.298.4200

*** = The campaign office (Suite 120) is at the same address as McCain's district office (Suite 105). That should be convenient for his taxpayer-paid staffers who want to violate the Hatch Act by engaging in campaign activities while on the federal clock volunteer for the presidential campaign in their spare time.


...Gen. Wesley Clark has endorsed Congressman Harry Mitchell for his re-election bid (at least, he's sent out a fund-raising email for the Mitchell campaign and has campaigned for Mitchell in the past.)

From the email -

A lot of politicians in Washington talk about supporting our troops, but there’s a difference between talk and action.

Thankfully for veterans, when it comes to taking care of those returning from battle in Iraq and Afghanistan, Harry Mitchell is taking action and changing the way we treat our veterans.

{snip}

The Republicans have not chosen their nominee yet, but we know they will be funded by the special interests and will stop at nothing during this campaign.

Please help Harry build the resources he needs to fight back.

...Judah Nativio, candidate for the LD18 seat in the state senate, today announced that he has received the endorsement of Mesa City Councilman Dennis Kavanaugh.

From Nativio's press release on his website -

Judah's law enforcement background, his energy, passion and concern for the community are key assets that would make him an effective state senator for District 18" said Kavanaugh.

In other LD18 news, Nativio and Ed Hermes, candidate for Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, will be holding a joint neighborhood canvass on Thursday, July 3 from 4 p.m. until 7 p.m. Call 480-266-1466 for more info.


...In pleasant news (what? You're surprised that I don't consider walking from door-to-door in 110-degree heat to be a "pleasant" activity? LOL)...Kara Kelty, candidate for Arizona Corporation Commission, happily reports that she successfully beat back the legal challenge to her nominating petitions.

Turns out that the challengers didn't show up; apparently they had a problem with making their case while under oath.

From an email from the campaign -

"We always knew that our petitions would withstand any challenge," said Kelty this morning. "I am just sorry we won't be able to confront the plaintiff in court and find out who is really behind this."

R-Cubed coverage here.


...and in Scottsdale election news, here's a list of upcoming Mayoral and City Council candidate forums (courtesy an email from Sonnie Kirtley at COGS):

Wednesday, 16 July, 2:00 p.m. 1st Arizona Republic Mayoral Forum. Held at the CityCable11 studios. It will be aired at various times up until the election. No guests will be allowed in the studio.

Thursday, 17 July, 7:00 p.m. COPP Forum for all Mayoral and Council candidates. The forum will be at the Legend Trail Community Center, 34575 North Legend Trail Parkway, Scottsdale, AZ 85262, Pima Rd, N of Lone Mountain.

Tuesday, 22 July, 6:00 p.m. Scottsdale Tribune’s Mayoral Candidates Forum. Broadcast live on City Cable Channel 11 from 6 to 7 p.m. Tuesday, from the Kiva of Scottsdale City Hall. Mark Scarp and a Tribune writer/editor TBA will moderate.

Thursday, 7 August, 7:00 p.m. Scottsdale Area Association of Realtors Forum. Held at the City Hall Kiva. 6:00 p.m. for Council candidates; 7:00 p.m. for Mayoral candidates.

Wednesday, 13 August, 8:00 a.m. Heart of Scottsdale Realtor's Tour Group. McCormick Ranch Golf Club, 8:00 a.m. for networking, 8:30 a.m. speakers begin. (This doesn't specifically say that the public isn't invited, but this seems to be a 'realtors-only' event. And they charge $8.00 for breakfast.)

Monday, 18 August, 2:30 p.m. Second Arizona Republic Mayoral Forum. Again at the CityCable11 studios, again the forum will be recorded and aired repeatedly on CityCable11, and again, no guests will be allowed in the studio.


Later...

Voter Reg Trends and other numbers

Looks like it's the week for really dry and numbers-heavy posts...

...The AZ Republic and PolitickerAZ each have stories up on the latest voter registration figures from the Arizona Secretary of State's Office. The stories discuss some of the statewide numbers and the gains that the Arizona Democratic Party has made since the 2006 election.

The SOS's voter reg figures repository is here.

A more local look at the numbers ('local' meaning CD5 and LDs 8, 17, and 18) -

In CD5, Democratic registrations have increased by more than 10000 since October of 2006 while Republican registrations are down slightly (379). Overall registrations are up a little more than 14000. The most encouraging aspect of this is that more than 71% of the increase in registered voters in CD5 since October 2006 has been Democratic.

In the shorter term, since March of this year (after the bump in registrations brought on by the Presidential primaries), Democratic registrations increased by more than 4200, Republican registrations by more than 2200 and overall registrations by 9600.


In LD8, the Democrats there continue to make headway against the daunting Rep registration advantage.

Since October 2006, Democratic registrations in LD8 have increased by over 3000; Republican registrations are up by 370, and overall registrations are up 5200.

Yes, the Democrats have more than 8 times the new registrations as the Reps since 2006.

Since March (post-primary bump), the Dems are up nearly 1000, the Reps just under 900, and overall registrations up 2600.


In LD17, Democratic registrations are up more than 2400 since October 2006, Rep registrations down more than 200, and overall registrations up 2750.

Yes, more than 88% of the overall increase since the last election is due to Democratic registrations.

Since March, Dem registrations are up 1300, Rep registrations are up 400, and overall registrations are up by more than 2600.

Yes, even post-bump, the LD17 Democrats have been adding to their 2006 momentum.


Some of the most encouraging registration numbers are in LD18, where Democratic registrations have increased by more than 1700 since October 2006 while Rep registrations have decreased by more than 700 over the same period. Overall registrations have increased by more than 1800.

Since March, Democratic registrations have increased by just under 1000, Reps by just under 600 and overall registrations by more than 2200.

The Reps still have a registration advantage in LD18, but it's now a manageable one. Tammie Pursley (House) and Judah Nativio (Senate) are running in LD18; look for one or both to pull off a major surprise come November.


Raw figures (and apologies for the formatting, or lack thereof :) ) -

Key - Party, June 2008 figures, March 2008, October 2006

CD5 -

Democratic, 96842, 92595, 86743
Republican, 138678. 136430, 139057
Overall, 329264, 319622, 315185


LD8 -

Democratic, 26536, 25555, 23500
Republican, 53525, 52654, 53155
Overall, 110687, 108085, 105458

LD17 -

Democratic, 26571,25249, 24131
Republican, 24880, 24478, 25101
Overall, 72909, 70245, 70159

LD18 -

Democratic, 15839, 14852, 14109
Republican, 25009, 24437, 25745
Overall, 55979, 53705, 54123


...The latest KAET/ASU poll asked respondents the following question - "If Arizona state government shuts down because the governor and the state legislature cannot agree on the budget, who do you think is most responsible for the impasse – the governor or the state legislature? "

52% of respondents hold the legislature most responsible for the budget impasse.

Seems like that in spite of the Republicans' best efforts to destroy public education in Arizona, some intelligence and perceptiveness still remains. :)

Later!

OK, sigs are in, and the races are set...

well, set pending verification of the sigs and any challenges...

Major races (Maricopa County, Mesa/Scottsdale/Tempe and statewide) contested by candidates from both major parties only. Many offices have Libertarian or Green candidates, but until one of those candidates garners enough support to make a difference in an election, I'm not going to waste space -


For County offices -

County Attorney -

Gerald Richard, Democrat. 2338 sigs required, 5186 submitted.

Tim Nelson, Democrat. 2338 sigs required, 5544 submitted.

Andrew Thomas, Republican. 3165 sigs required, 6518 submitted.


County Sheriff -

Dan Saban, Democrat. 2338 sigs required, 9071 submitted.

Joe Arpaio, Republican. 3165 sigs required, 12853 submitted.


Board of Supervisors, District 1 -

Ed Hermes, Democrat. 482 sigs required, 1254 submitted.

Fulton Brock, Republican. 712 sigs required, 1583 submitted.


Board of Supervisors, District 2 -

Joel Sinclaire, Democrat. 389 sigs required, 666 submitted.

Don Stapley, Republican. 794 sigs required, 1733 submitted.


Board of Supervisors, District 3 -

Marilyn Fox, Democrat. 449 sigs required, 975 submitted.

Andrew Kunasek, Republican. 617 sigs required, 2837 submitted.


The incumbents in Supervisor Districts 4 and 5, Max Wilson (R) and Mary Rose Wilcox (D) respectively, will be running without opposition.


For State and Congressional offices -

CD5 -

Harry Mitchell, Democrat. 463 signatures required, 1486 submitted.

Mark Anderson, Republican. 683 signatures required, 1647 submitted.

Susan Bitter Smith, Republican. 683 signatures required, 1349 submitted.

Lee Gentry, Republican. 683 signatures required, 1352 submitted.

Laura Knaperek, Republican. 683 signatures required, 1795 submitted.

Jim Ogsbury, Republican. 683 signatures required, 3390 submitted.

David Schweikert, Republican. 683 signatures required, 2078 submitted.

Note - Perhaps in a surprise to everyone outside the Gentry household, the heretofore semi-mythical Lee Gentry's candidacy is for real. He even gathered more sigs than longtime Scottsdale pol Susan Bitter Smith.


CD6 -

Chris Gramazio, Democrat. 494 signatures required, 695 submitted.

Rebecca Schneider, Democrat. 494 signatures required, 863 submitted.

Scott Bergren, Republican. 922 signatures required, 1029 submitted.

Jeff Flake, Republican. 922 signatures required, 2860 submitted.

Note - Wow! Jeff Flake is facing a primary challenger running at him from the right, and it *isn't* Russell Pearce? Who would have guessed that this time last year? Hell, who would have guessed that someone would even *think* of running against the ultraconservative Flake, while trying to portray him as 'not conservative enough'?


LD8 State Senate -

Carolyn Allen, Republican. 527 signatures required, 812 submitted.

Note - Senator Allen is apparently running unopposed in both the primary and general elections.


LD17 State Senate -

Meg Burton Cahill, Democrat. 253 signatures required, 754 submitted.

Jesse Hernandez, Republican. 245 signatures required, 425 submitted.


LD18 State Senate -

Judah Nativio, Democrat. 149 signatures required, 258 submitted.

Kevin Gibbons, Republican. 245 signatures required, 362 submitted.

Russell Pearce, Republican. 245 signatures required, 733 submitted.

Note - At 733 signatures, Russell Pearce submitted the maximum number.


LD8 State Representative -

Stephanie Rimmer, Democrat. 256 signatures required, 599 submitted.

John Kavanagh, Republican. 527 signatures required, 920 submitted.

Michelle Reagan, Republican. 527 signatures required, 1327 submitted.


LD17 State Representative -

Ed Ableser, Democrat. 253 signatures required, 715 submitted.

David Schapira, Democrat. 253 signatures required, 757 submitted.

Mark Thompson, Republican. 245 signatures required, 370 submitted.

Wes Waddle, Republican. 245 signatures required, 451 submitted.

Note - at 757 signatures, David Schapira subitted the maximum allowed.


LD18 State Representative -

Tammie Pursley, Democrat. 149 signatures required, 290 submitted.

Cecil Ash, Republican. 245 signatures required, 733 submitted.

Steve Court, Republican. 245 signatures required, 536 submitted.

Kanani Henderson, Republican. 245 signatures required, 392 submitted.

Ron Middlebrook, Republican. 245 signatures required, 320 submitted.

Note - at 733 signatures, Cecil Ash submitted the maximum number allowed.


Corporation Commission -

Sam George, Democrat. 4580 signatures required, 13915 submitted.

Kara Kelty, Democrat. 4580 signatures required, 7172 submitted.

Sandra Kennedy, Democrat. 4580 signatures required, 8343 submitted.

Paul Newman, Democrat. 4580 signatures required, 9314 submitted.

John Allen, Republican. 5184 signatures required, 6757 submitted.

Rick Fowlkes, Republican. 5184 signatures required, 7741 submitted.

Joseph Hobbs, Republican. 5184 signatures required, 7539 submitted.

Marian McClure, Republican. 5184 signatures required, 6697 submitted.

Bob Robson, Republican. 5184 signatures required, 9700 submitted.

Bob Stump, Republican. 5184 signatures required, 9154 submitted.

Keith Swapp, Republican. 5184 signatures required, 6811 submitted.

Barry Wong, Republican. 5184 signatures required, 7700 submitted.

Note - According to a note on his campaign website, George Arredondo suspended his campaign because he couldn't get enough sigs.


And finally, for Scottsdale municipal offices, courtesy an email from City Clerk Carolyn Jagger, forwarded to me by Sonnie of COGS, [note added by me] -

The following candidates for City Council filed nomination papers and petitions [1652 signatures required for all offices] :

Lisa Borowsky (3,323 signatures)
Joel Bramoweth (2,208 signatures)
Oren Davis (2,445 signatures)
Betty Drake (2,691 signatures)
Tom Giller (2,268 signatures)
Suzanne Klapp (2,672 signatures)
Ron McCullagh (2,481 signatures)
Nan Nesvig (2,599 signatures)

The following candidates for Mayor filed nomination papers and petitions:

W.J. "Jim" Lane (2,484 signatures)
Mary Manross (3,291 signatures)

Write-In Candidates: John Washington filed papers to run for as a write-in candidate for Mayor.

You know, for what is essentially a 'cut and paste' post, this post took a lot of work. Back to quick and snarky after this... :))

More sigs and registration numbers

Time to update last week's post on signatures; specifically, on candidates in the Mesa/Tempe/Scottsdale area who have turned in their petitions.

LD8 State Senate - no change (no sigs filed yet)

LD17 State Senate -

Meg Burton-Cahill (D), incumbent - 632 sigs filed, 253 required. Running as a Clean Elections candidate. Filed May 28, 2008.

LD18 State Senate -

Russell Pearce (R) - 733 sigs, 245 required. Clean Elections. Filed May 28, 2008.


LD8 State Representative - no changes.

LD17 State Representative - no changes.

LD18 State Representative - no changes.


As for statewide office, within the last week, the following candidates filed sigs for their runs for Corporation Commission -

John Allen (R) - 6145 sigs, 5184 required. Clean Elections. Filed May 23, 2008.

Bob Robson (R) - 7576 sigs, 5184 required. Traditional financing. Filed May 28, 2008.


In Scottsdale sig news, the EV Tribune has the story of Jim Lane's filing. He's currently a member of the City Council and is a candidate for mayor.


On the voter registration figures front, according to the Maricopa County Recorder's website...

...In District 17, the Democrats have extended their registration advantage over the Reps to 1584 (24,281 - 26405). That up from the advantage of 771 in March, based on the March figures from the AZ Secretary of State's office.

...In LD8, the Republican registration advantage was closed slightly (by 70 voters) to 27,020 (53,430 - 26,418).

...In LD18, the margin favors the Republicans by 9198 (24,917 - 15,719). That's an advantage of 14.5%. According to the March SOS figures, the gap was 9585 (24,437 - 14,852).

My March post on voter reg figures is here; take the comparisons in this one with a grain of salt - the AZ SOS and Maricopa County Recorder usually have slightly different figures, so this isn't a perfect, "apples to apples" comparison. It's close enough for blogging, though. :)

And on the other hand, their numbers usually aren't that far off from each other's either. :))

I'll do an update on sigs next week after the deadline for turning in petitions (Wednesday, June 4), but I won't anything on registration numbers until early August, which is when early voting starts for the September primary election.

Later!

Brief Elections Update - sigs rolling in

The following candidates from the Tempe/Scottsdale/Mesa area (aka - LDs 17, 8, and 18) have turned in their nominating petitions so far (the deadline is June 4, 2008) -

Michelle Reagan (R), running for LD8 State Representative (incumbent) - 1315 signatures, 527 required (traditional financing), filed May 20, 2008.

Ed Ableser (D), LD17 State Representative (incumbent) - 699 signatures, 253 required (Clean Elections), filed April 17, 2008.

David Schapira (D), LD17 State Representative (incumbent) - 757 signatures, 253 required (Clean Elections), filed April 17, 2008.

Cecil Ash (R), LD18 State Representative - 733 signatures, 245 required (Clean Elections), filed May 15, 2008.

Steve Court (R), LD18 State Representative - 536 signatures, 245 required (Clean Elections), filed May 8, 2008.

Ron Middlebrook (R), LD18 State Representative - 320 signatures, 245 required (Clean Elections), filed April 15, 2008.


The following candidates for Corporation Commission have filed their petitions -

Sandra Kennedy (D) - 6353 signatures, 4580 required (Clean Elections), filed May 16, 2008.

Rick Fowlkes (R) - 6626 signatures, 5184 required (Clean Elections), filed May 19, 2008.

Above info courtesy the Arizona Secretary of State's website (current as of 5/2.1.2008)


And as for Maricopa County races -

Tim Nelson (D), candidate for County Attorney, 5276 signatures, 2338 required.

Dan Saban (D), candidate for County Sheriff, 8002 signatures, 2338 required.

Ed Hermes (D), candidate for District 1 County Supervisor, 1093 signatures, 482 required.

Mary Rose Wilcox (D) candidate for District 5 County Supervisor (incumbent), 1191 signatures, 448 required.

County race info courtesy the Maricopa County Clerk's website, information current as of 5/19/2008.

Expect a flood of petitions to hit the county clerk's office and the SOS's office next week.

Later...

Join fellow East Valley Democrats this weekend...

This weekend is going to be a busy one for Democrats in CD5 (LD17, LD18, LD8) -

...Congressman Harry Mitchell will be joining the LD17 Democrats as they walk neighborhoods for Tempe City Council candidates Corey Woods and Joel Navarro at 10:00 a.m., following up with a Democrats in the Park event that will actually be held indoors at El Penasco (highlights include a kickball game starting at 1:30 p.m). Contact LD17 Chair Doug Mings at dougmings[at]gmail.com for more info.

Meet up for the walk at 10:00 a.m. at Bunna Coffee (NW corner of Rural and Elliot); the event at El Penasco (SE corner of Mill and Broadway) starts at 1:00 p.m.


...Over in LD18, Congressman Harry Mitchell will be joining Judah Nativio, candidate for State Senate, and Tammie Pursley, candidate for State House, as they walk neighborhoods in Mesa. After the walk, 'there will be a 'meet the LD18 candidates' barbeque.

Meet up for the walk at 9:00 a.m. in Kleinman Park (710 S. Extension in Mesa). The barbeque starts at noon at the Manske residence, 1758 E Gary St., Mesa. (View Google Maps)

Contact for the barbeque - Wayne Manske, 480-835-8977.

Tammie Pursley, Judah Nativio, and the LD18 Democrats are working with the United Way of Mesa and a food bank, and are asking folks to bring food items to meetings and other events.


...Up in LD8, on Saturday, there will be a special reception for Congressman Harry Mitchell at the home of Denise and Ross Cooper from 5:00 p.m. until 7:00 p.m. Contact Herschel Fink at 480-755-3343 or Ross Cooper at 480-922-0068 for reservations and donations. Online RSVP here.

On Sunday, there will be a 'meet the candidates' houseparty hosted by Linda Mack Ross, 4752 N. 75th Place, RSVP at 480-425-0470. Join Linda and bring your friends to greet, meet and learn more about what could be . . . . Stephanie Rimmer, Candidate for Arizona State Legislature; Dan Saban, Candidate for Sheriff, Gerald Richard, Candidate for County Attorney, Joel Sinclair, Candidate for Maricopa County Supervisor. 6:00 – 8:00 p.m. for desserts.


...For those who want the get an early start on the week, don't forget LD8's "meet the candidates" night at their monthly program meeting on Thursday, May 15. The event will be held at Country Inn Suites, 10801 N. 89th Place in Scottsdale and is scheduled to include candidates Stephanie Rimmer, Dan Saban, Gerald Richard, and Joel Sinclaire. The reception starts at 6:30 p.m.; the meeting starts at 7:00 p.m.

Quick Elections Update - New Candidates

Edit to add info on LD18 candidate Joe Brown below...

Scottsdale update (info courtesy the Scottsdale City Clerk's elections webpage) -

In news that should surprise no one who follows the goings-on in Scottsdale, Tom Giller, the driving force behind Height and Density, the anti-Hanover Project political committee, has filed candidate committee paperwork with the Scottsdale City Clerk's office.

I think he is seeking a seat on the City Council; while his paperwork doesn't specify, this EV Trib article written by Brian Powell states that he is.

His campaign committee's contact number is 480.947.3654.

Also filing paperwork for a Council run is Oren Davis, a pro-development Scottsdale businessman.

From the same Trib article -

Davis, 54, said he was encouraged by Councilman Jim Lane - who is challenging Mayor Mary Manross in September for the city's top post - and Paul Messinger to run for council.

"I am pro-growth but would also like to maintain the character of Scottsdale," Davis said.

Davis also said he'd like to see more transparency in government and more communication between developers and residents with hopes of avoiding another issue like Hanover.

That quote is the sum total of my knowledge of Mr. Davis. :))

His campaign's contact number is 602.295.3783.


LD17 Update (note: all LD candidate info courtesy the AZ Secretary of State's campaign finance report webpage) -

State Senator Meg Burton-Cahill has a Republican challenger in Jesse Hernandez of Tempe, who filed his paperwork on April 15, 2008. He is running as a Clean Elections candidate. He's a business owner and long-time Republican. (brief bio here)

LD18 Update -

Another candidate has jumped into the LD18 State Rep fray. Joe Brown, running as an Independent, turned in organizational paperwork on April 18, 2008. He running as a Clean Elections candidate. With that name, I'm not even bothering with a Google search and I don't have any familiarity with the Mesa political scene (other than knowing that Democrats Tammie Pursley and Judah Nativio are running for LD18 House and Senate, respectively.)

Edit on 4/30 to update, with info courtesy Judah Nativio, Democratic candidate for the Senate seat in LD18 -

Mr. Brown is a conservative Republican who ran against Karen Johnson for the LD18 Senate seat in 2006; he lost in the primary, garnering slightly more than 25% of the votes cast. Apparently, he changed his registration sometime after that.

End edit.

No changes in LD8, except that a Libertarian, Robert Weber, has formed a committee to take on the electoral buzzsaw known as State Senator Carolyn Allen.

I'd wish him good luck with that, but there's a reason that Sen. Allen has become an "electoral buzzsaw" - she has earned the respect of people from all over the political spectrum because of her dedication and skill as a public servant (even if she *is* an Arizona Republican. Apparently, she doesn't drink the Kool-Aid. :) ).

Unless a Democrat steps up, this one's already over...

Later!

Events Calendar

Saturday, February 16 - A Democratic "Day of Action"/Campaign Kick-Off House Party at the home of State Representative David Schapira. After a day of walking, knocking, talking and registering voters, join David and his seatmate, Rep. Ed Ableser, at the party that kicks off their re-election campaign.

Time: 2:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m.
Place: 3633 S. Hazelton Ln., Tempe, AZ 85282

Note - for info on D17 Day of Action activities, contact LD17 Chair Doug Mings at dougmings[at]gmail.com.


Tuesday, February 19 - Monthly meeting of the Arizona chapter of the National Democratic Jewish Council. A Democratic candidate TBD will be the featured speaker.

Time: 7:00 p.m.
Location: Country Inn Suites, 89th Place and Shea, Scottsdale


Thursday, February 21 - The Big Picture Film Series presents the documentary "Can Mr. Smith Get To Washington Anymore?". Join David Malsch, the LD17 Democrats, LD18 Democrats, and the ASU Young Dems in watching this fast-paced, engaging, and enlightening look at the 2006 campaign for a U.S. Senate seat waged by supreme underdog Jeff Smith.

Time: 7:30 p.m.
Place: ASU's Coor Building, Room 170
975 S. Myrtle Ave., Tempe

Admission: Free, open to the public


Thursday, February 21 - At its regular meeting, Scottsdale's Transportation Commission will consider, and seek public input on, future route expansions for Scottsdale's Neighborhood Connector Trolley service. The Neighborhood Connector Trolley serves south Scottsdale, and the proposed expansions are also in south Scottsdale.

Time: 6:00 p.m.
Place: City Hall Kiva
3939 Drinkwater Blvd., Scottsdale


Friday, February 29 - Join Congressman Harry Mitchell for the LD17 Fundraiser and Party celebrating that, for the first time, Democrats outnumber Republicans in D17!

Time: 6:30 p.m.
Place: The home of Lauren and Mike Kuby
109 E. Loma Vista Dr., Tempe
(Click here for a map)
Donation: $25 ($15 for Young Dems); Click here to donate, and then email Lauren at laurenkuby[at]gmail.com to let her know that you paid online.


Saturday, March 1 - MCDP County Convention

Time: Training sessions start at 9:00 a.m.; the meeting starts at 1:00 p.m.
Location: Plumbers and Steamfitters Union
3109 North 24th Street, Phoenix


Sunday, March 9 - D8 Fundraiser at Ostrovsky’s Fine Art Gallery. Join Congressman Harry Mitchell and the LD8 Democrats for an afternoon of Art, Jazz, and Political Talk.

Time: 3:00 p.m. until 5:00 p.m.
Place: 7048 E. Main St., Scottsdale
Donation: $35
Info: phone (480) 596-8350 or email d8office[at]d8dems.phxcoxmail.com

Short Attention Span Musing

This one's a mish-mash of stuff that has been building up over the weekend...

Note - this post was edited to correct spelling, punctuation, poor grammar, and a couple of forgotten sentences. I really should know better than to post late at night after working all weekend. :))

...Bush makes it official - he cares more about killing Iraqis than he does about protecting Americans.

From Bloomberg.com -

Bush Says Funding Iraq, Afghan Wars Is Congress's Top Priority

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush said that funding the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan should be Congress's top priority when it returns to Washington next week, and he lashed out at Democrats for not acting on his spending request.

From MSNBC.com -

Bush Proposes Dramatic Cuts In Homeland Security Funding

WASHINGTON - The Bush administration intends to slash counter terrorism funding for police, firefighters and rescue departments nation-wide by more than half next year, according to budget documents obtained by The Associated Press. New York would be hard hit by deep cuts, according to lawmakers on both sides of the aisle.

The plan would eliminate programs for port security, transit security and local emergency management operations in the next budget year.

Even the right-wing blogosphere takes issue with cuts to HS funding.

Wonder how soon-to-be Senate minority whip Jon Kyl will spin his blind support of Bush's plans?


...In the candidates and rumored candidates department -

Caveat: all rumors are just that and nothing more. In addition, any Republican-related rumors should be read with the understanding that I am *not* a Republican insider, nor do I know any. It's all just stuff that I've heard.

- - - Long-heard talk has that LD8 State Senator Carolyn Allen won't be running for reelection and that current LD8 State Rep. Michelle Reagan will be running for the seat. What is new to me is the rumor that John Kavanagh, also a current rep in LD8, will challenge Reagan in the Republican primary, setting up the equivalent of Allen-Rosati II, with the pro-business Reagan taking on the role of Carolyn Allen and wing-nut Kavanagh stepping in for Colette Rosati.

If true, this would create a dilemma for Democrats in the overwhelmingly Republican LD8 - lend support (if not votes) for the relatively moderate (and more importantly, sane) Reagan in the primary, even though she would be all but invincible in the general election, or risk the possible elevation to the Senate of Kavanagh, who, while nothing but Russell Pearce with a New York accent, is marginally more vulnerable in a general election.

Note: According to a search of the AZ Secretary of State's website, Reagan's active 2008 committee is for state rep, and Allen still has an active state senate campaign committee.

- - - It's not official yet, but apparently Democrat Stephanie Rimmer may be running for LD8 State Rep next year. She ran in 2006 and mounted a credible campaign against Reagan and Kavanagh; if both incumbents are running for state senate in 2008, she'll have a fighting chance against two Republican rookies in the state rep race.

That 2-to-1 Republican registration advantage will be tough to overcome, though. Maybe the Republicans will help her by nominating Rosati for a run at a state rep seat.

Rosati's burned enough bridges in her own party that some LD8 Republicans would vote for Hillary Clinton before they'd vote for Rosati; that dynamic will help Rimmer.

Rimmer is a long-time community activist and small business owner and lives with her family in Scottsdale.

No word yet on any other possible Democratic contenders in LD8.

...In LD18, Republican PC (Mesa 32) Ron Middlebrook is running for state rep; the current reps are erstwhile congressional candidates Russell Pearce ('exploring' in CD6) and Mark Anderson ('exploring' in CD5). No rumor this - his Clean Elections paperwork is already filed.

Don't know anything else about him.

Note - if the 'explorations' don't become full-fledged candidacies and they start looking at other offices, Pearce is termed out in the state House, while Anderson can run for another term there.


...and finally, in the "Let's help Jan Brewer puff up her resume before she runs for governor in 2010" department, Republican State Senator Chuck Gray has introduced an amendment to the state constitution, that if it passed the lege next spring and the voters next fall, would change the Secretary of State's job title to "Lieutenant Governor."

It wouldn't change the job description, just the title.

My question - why bother?

Later!

Short Attention Span Musing

...From the "great minds think alike, even if they're 120 miles apart" department...
Spent last evening enjoying good conversation over good food with good people, aka a "Democratic happy hour," this one in Mesa.
One of the first things that I read after getting home was this post from Tedski at R-Cubed about the latest antics of State Senator Jack Harper (R-Surprise!). It seems that the good senator decided to chide a Democrat, Chad Campbell, for taking part in a taxpayer-funded trip to Ireland to study Ireland's economic development efforts.

There was only one "minor" problem with Harper's criticism - the bipartisan trip was privately funded.

Oops.

This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who has read previous posts in this blog concerning Harper - he did win the coveted "Legislative Loon" Award for 2007 (awarded by yours truly :) ).

The current odds have him favored to repeat in 2008. :)

And the "great minds" part?

At the Dem happy hour in Mesa, part of the conversation revolved around how happy we were that Robert Boehlke will be challenging Harper for the LD4 Senate seat next year.
He's running as a Clean Elections candidate, so he won't need much in financial help (just 5s and seed money), but if you live in LD4, when he comes around asking for volunteers, signatures, and votes, help him out.

...Speaking of candidates in next year's elections, Judah Nativio has turned in paperwork for a run at the LD18 Senate seat. While it's still unclear whether he'll be facing incumbent Karen Johnson (R-UFO) or termed-out-as-State-Representative (and erstwhile challenger to fellow Republican Jeff Flake in CD6) Russell Pearce (R-National Alliance), what is clear is that he understands that he is running to represent the *district,* not just a radical portion of one party.

Unlike both of his potential opponents.

I spoke with him for a few minutes tonight - he's a former police officer and was, until recently, a member of Mesa's Human Relations Advisory Board ("recent" as in until AZ's resign-to-run law kicked in); his wife Amy teaches at Taylor Junior High.

Note - arriving after she finished teaching a class was Tammie Pursley, a once (2006) and future (2008) candidate for LD18 House.

Maybe the way to get the lege to tackle the issue of AZ's failing education system is to elect teachers or those who hold teachers near and dear.

Just something to think about when Ms. Pursley and Mr. Nativio come knocking...

More as the campaign season unfolds...


...With the latest Middle East peace conference, George Bush has officially reached "lame-duck" status...

I truly wish success in the endeavor to him and everyone involved, but it seems like that for decades, when U.S. presidents start looking for a way to preserve their 'legacy' (whatever that may mean) their eyes turn toward that seemingly intractable mess in the Middle East.

And some, such as Bush himself, ignore their own contributions to the never-ending strife...but I digress :)) .

Overall, the most of these conferences define success as an agreement by the individuals in the conference rooms that they won't kill each other. Unfortunately, people that aren't in the conference rooms don't take that idea to heart.

Perhaps the problem is that while peace between nations with armies on fields of battle can be negotiated in well-appointed rooms and great halls of power, the strife in the Middle East, particularly that in the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, can only be truly addressed at the level of the conflict - street by street, neighborhood by neighborhood.

This might be the only time that I'll ever wish Bush and his associates well (let's face it - 99% of the time, they're nothing but crooks), but on this one, they have my high hopes for success.

Just not my high expectations.


...And lastly, while the weather forecast for the Phoenix area this weekend includes rain, we really should be on the lookout for an ice storm. My meteorological evidence?

I agreed with AZ Rep columnist Laurie Roberts.

Earlier this week, she wrote that "Jesus Manuel Cordova is nobody special."

Mr. Cordova is the migrant from Mexico who stopped and aided a 9-year old boy whose mother had died in a car accident near the border, even though helping the child would result in his detention and deportation by ICE.

Robert wrote -

In fact, Jesus Manuel Cordova is probably nobody special. Just a guy like millions of others, fleeing a country that has failed him, one who stopped and helped a stranger despite the consequences to his own family.

She went on to express hope that this incident causes us to "reclaim the debate about illegal immigration that has been taken over by the extremes in this country, those who would have you believe that every person here illegally is out to rob us and cheat us and steal our country."

I couldn't have said it better myself.

Later!

Yet another challenger for Harry Mitchell

The long-rumored entry of Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert into the Republican primary race to face Harry Mitchell next year is a little closer to reality.

From the AZ Rep's Plugged In -

Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert has launched an exploratory committee as he considers a run for the 5th Congressional District in 2008.

Sort of.

You see, his Website - David08exploratory.com - is up and running. But it's clearly a work in progress.

Note: I clicked on the link to the website, but it is unavailable as of this writing.

Brief background:

Elected as Maricopa County Treasurer in 2004 in a race that had at least a bit of controversy and allegations of racism/ethnic insults in his primary contest against Republican businessman Garry Ong.

From the linked article (from Asianweek.com) -

Political mud started to fly when a mailer sent out for a Schweikert barbecue-fundraiser read “No Tofu Dogs” invited. Ong’s team filed a complaint with the Anti-Defamation League.

At a public meeting, Schweikert told Ong, “It was just for the fun of it,” but he offered no apology.

...He ran for Congress in 1994, losing in the Republican primary to J.D. Hayworth.

...A search of the FEC's databases didn't turn up an current campaign filings, but those aren't necessary until he actually starts a campaign or exploratory committee.

...Further FEC searching found contributions to the AZ Republican Party and to Susan Bitter-Smith's 2000 campaign.

...A search of the AZ Secretary of State's databases show contributions to AZ Right To Life PAC, LD7 Republicans, Sen. Karen Johnson (R-LD18), and 2006 candidate Carl Seel (LD6).

...He's been making the rounds in the non-District 8 LDs, schmoozing up Republican activists in LD21 (scheduled for last night) and LD18 (next week.) Note: He currently lives in Fountain Hills, which is in LD8 and CD5.

...Republican blogger Espresso Pundit, Greg Patterson (Schweikert's former colleague in the AZ lege) has a profile here.

From the profile by Republican blogger Sonoran Alliance -

David, former State Legislator and current County Treasurer, has been running for this seat, in one way or another, since the day he lost to J.D. Hayworth in the primary in 1994. He is smart, ambitious and one of the hardest working people in politics. And his new bride is said to be just as motivated as he is, which is a huge deal in a Congressional race. He likely knows more detail about the district than anyone else, which demonstrates, to some degree, one of his weaknesses – he is a bit geeky, but in a charming way. He is a solid conservative (he actually ran to the right of Hayworth in 1994). Little known factoid: Sen. Karen Johnson was his assistant when he served as the Majority Whip in the state legislature.

General issues: Dems (and the New Times) attack Schweikert for his role in the LD 20 recount and for not releasing the ballots to the Senate. Dems have an universal heart attack when they realize they are taking the same position as Sen. Jack Harper.

Well, that *does* explain the campaign contribution to Johnson.

Yes, I know I keep citing profiles by Republican bloggers, but let's face facts - it's not like we, meaning Democratic bloggers, write many profiles of Republican candidates. :)

Anyway, he seems to be intelligent, hard-working, very conservative, and not afraid to push the limits of decorum during a campaign (the personal insults). While he has low name recognition with average voters (and even some more active ones), he also has low negatives, unlike some of his opponents in the primary.

As of right now, he is probably the strongest candidate in the primary - he's got the connections to raise money, the experience to run an effective campaign, and is conservative enough to appeal to the far-right wing of his party while not scaring off the "Chamber of Commerce" wing with a "kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out" campaign platform.

Of course, we're nearly a year away from the primary, and there's at least a couple of other folks who are rumored to be interested in the Republican nomination to take on Harry.

Stay tuned...

Comings and goings....

Wednesday was a day of transition for many Republicans...

...Former Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn of Washington passed away at her home in Virginia.

...Ohio Congressman Paul Gillmor was found dead in his D.C. apartment, apparently from natural causes.

My deepest condolences to the friends and families of both.

...Two aides to Abramhoff-associated Rep. John Doolittle (R-CA) moved from 'staffer' status to 'witness' status as they testified before a grand jury investigating their boss.

From AP via SeattlePI.com -

WASHINGTON -- Rep. John Doolittle's scheduler and deputy chief of staff appeared Wednesday before a federal grand jury investigating the California Republican's ties to jailed lobbyist Jack Abramoff, Doolittle's spokesman said.

The scheduler, Alisha Perkins, and Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Blankenburg were among three Doolittle aides subpoenaed in recent days. Chief of Staff Ron Rogers is scheduled to testify Friday before the grand jury at the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.

...TV actor and former Senator Fred Thompson officially announced his candidacy for the 2008 Republican nomination for President.

...In Arizona, Ken Bennett, former president of the state senate, announced that he is *not* running for the CD1 Congressional seat, but he did leave open the possibility of seeking the Governor's office in 2010.

Tedski at R-Cubed has an interesting take on the effect of his son's legal troubles on a potential Bennett candidacy, and I have to agree with his point - the troubles themselves ("hazing" 18 kids with a broom handle) would have less of an impact on a candidacy than the suspicions that the elder Bennett's political prominence had something to do with the lenient sentence his son received (30 days).

Those suspicions will still be around in 2010.

...Also in Arizona, State Rep. Russell Pearce (R-National Alliance) has formed an exploratory committee for a potential primary challenge against super conservative Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ6).

Republican blog Espresso Pundit's take on the possible race is here.

...It was also a day of transition for a Democrat - Sen. Tim Johnson of South Dakota made his welcome return to the Senate after his long recovery from a brain hemorrhage.

AP coverage here.

Later!

And the 'green' grades are in...

Credit for the heads-up on this goes to the AZ Rep's Plugged In...

Congrats to LD17 State Reps. Ed Ableser and David Schapira for making the honor roll of the Arizona League of Conservation Voters and the Grand Canyon Chapter of the Sierra Club for their work during the 2007 session of the legislature.

Both scored 100% under the LCV's weighted grading guidelines!

Sen. Meg Burton-Cahill slacked off this session, weighing down the overall D17 score by coming in at only 97%.

If only she'd used 'green' crutches while recovering from foot surgery this winter. :))

It was also nice to see that many of the legislators that have received praise here and in other blogs for their fine work in the lege also scored well with the AzCLV (Steve Farley's 100%, for example), while others that have received criticism scored poorly with the AzCLV, too -

Sen. Ron 'Confederate Flag' Gould (R-LD3) .....18%
Rep. Trish 'DUI' Groe (R-LD3).....19%

Maybe it's something in the LD3 water, though if there is, expect Groe and Gould to be OK with that, particularly if some company is making money off of it.

Of course, the same might be said in LD18 -

Rep. Russell 'National Alliance' Pearce (R-LD18).....26%
Sen. Karen 'UFO Sighting' Johnson (R-LD18).....29%

And the district most likely to welcome a toxic waste dump?

LD22, with Sen. Thayer Vershoor (R) scoring 37%, Rep. Andy Biggs (R) scoring 23% and Rep. Eddie Farnsworth scoring 25%.

By comparison, my [least] favorite state senator, Jack Harper (R-Surprise!) did remarkably well, scoring a 48%!

His loyal constituents should take heart though; I have no doubt that Jack will see this score and use it as motivation for next session.

That score will be in single digits faster than you can say 'culture of corruption.'

:))

Note: The AzCLV's legislative scorecard is here; Sierra Club's press release is here.

Russell Pearce (R-LD18) getting noticed nationally

Of course, it's not positive notice, but I'm pretty sure he doesn't care anyway...

From the Southern Poverty Law Center's Intelligence Report:

It was the second time in two weeks the hard-line former sheriff from North Mesa found himself confronted with charges of racism and extremist views on immigration. Earlier that month, Pearce drew fire for endorsing a reprise of "Operation Wetback," a 1950s program of forced deportation.

"We know what we need to do," Pearce said on a Phoenix radio show. "In 1953, Dwight D. Eisenhower put together a task force named 'Operation Wetback.' He removed, in less than a year, 1.3 million illegal aliens. They must be deported."

When critics jumped on the use of the derogatory word "wetback," Pearce defended himself with gusto, describing his critics, including fellow Republicans, as "sissies." "In the '50s, [the term] was common. In the '60s, it was common," Pearce said. "You don't use it today because people have tried to make it offensive. Things change, and you know what? Who cares?"

The article went on to talk about the endorsements that he lost as a result of his open bigotry, quoting State Senator Carolyn Allen (R-LD8):

{He's} "lost his moorings. He's driving himself mad about this [immigration debate]."

...In other Pearce news, he proposed a bill in the lege that would bring a constitutional amendment before the voters to declare that marriage is a "Only a union of one man and one woman."

The he decided not to go forward with it. Saying he filed it he accidently, he's asked Speaker Jim Weiers not to let it move forward.

In a shocking development (really!!) the Speaker is accomodating his Appropriations Committee Chair.

More on the loon outlook for the new session of the lege later on today (expect lots of mentions of Pearce and Sen. Jack Harper (R-LD4)...

Later!