Friday, March 21, 2008

Voter Registration Trends - CD5, LD17, and LD8

Tony Cani over at Wactivist has a post about an EV Tribune article on the latest voter registration numbers in AZ. He observes that while many in the D.C. power structure of the Democratic Party are writing off AZ this fall because John McCain (R-Truant) will be at the top of the ballot, the voter reg trends indicate that Arizona will be a battleground state, both for the Presidency and in many of the Congressional races.

From the AZ Secretary of State's latest report on voter reg figures -

CD5 (compared to January 2008)

Democrats 92,595 - up 394 (.43%)
Republicans 136,430 - down 2835 (-2.04%)
Libertarians 2,058 - down 164 (-7.38%)
Independents 88,539 - down 5918 (-6.27%)

Total 318,691 - down 9454 (-2.88%)


Democrats 25,249 - down 281 (-1.1%)
Republicans 24,478 - down 905 (-3.57%)
Libertarians 650 - down 70 (-9.72%)
Independents 19,868 - down 1955 (-8..96%)

Total 70,245 - down 3211 (-4.37%)


Democrats 25,555 - up 189 (+ 0.75%)
Republicans 52,654 - down 1016 (-1.89%)
Libertarians 490 - down 42 (-7.89%)
Independents 29,386 - 1849 (-5.92%)

Totals 108,085 - down 2718 (-2.45%)

Brief analysis -

In LD17, the Democrats extended their newfound registration advantage over the Republicans (whooo hooooo!), something that bodes well for LD17's legislators come November, especially if the trend continues. Right now, while the Dems do have a definite advantage, at 36% to 35%, it's still a virtual dead heat.

In LD8, while the Reps still have a more than 2 - 1 registration advantage, the trend is clear - the hard work of the LD8 Democrats is paying off. Since the 2006 election, the Democrats have closed the registration deficit by almost 3000 voters (+2500 Dems, -500 Reps).

That hard work is a major reason why that, since October 2006 in CD5 as a whole, the Republican registration advantage has been cut by almost 8500 voters.

While Congressman Harry Mitchell still has an uphill battle in his re-election fight, that hill is a little less steep, whether or not John McCain is at the top of the ballot in the fall.


1 comment:

Thane Eichenauer said...

I have no love for the average tax and spend Republican running against Harry Mitchell such as Jim "Islamofascist" Ogsbury. However Harry Mitchell is just another codependent empire-builder at this point. Why would anybody vote for him after he and the other elected Democrats in Congress failed to reign in George W. Bush? Is Harry Mitchell going to prevent President Bush from engaging in offensive military actions against Iran? Then what good is he as a congressman?

As for LD17, considering the fact that 64% of the district is NOT any kind of democrat I would think that the incumbent Democrats might well be facing an uphill battle come November especially if the voters manage to learn that the average Democratic state legislator has a score of 32 per the AFT and is characterized as a Friend of Big Government compared to the average Republican state legislator who garnered (on average) a score of 65 (Friend of the Taxpayer). Don't worry, I am sure the Arizona Republic won't let the cat out of the bag.