Brewer campaign script: Plan A - Lie; Plan B - Run and Hide. Plan C: When Plan B stops working, return to Plan A.

Early this year, Jan Brewer and her quest for an elected term as governor were in trouble.

Deep-pocketed Republican challengers were swamping her in her primary race, and early polling had Terry Goddard defeating her in the general election.

Then Russell Pearce's SB1070 came along, and Brewer's campaign righted itself with Plan A. 

She focused on selling that nativist measure to the Republican base, using stereotypes, extremist rhetoric, and outright lies.

The bill, and her success inciting "energizing" her base forced most of the other R gubernatorial candidates to withdraw from the race.

In addition, polls taken shortly after the primary showed her with a comfortable (~20%) lead over the Democratic nominee for governor, Terry Goddard.

Then came The Debate.

After the brain freeze that will never go away, the grammatical gaffes ("we has did"), and the frantic retreat from the media after the debate, her handlers refused to allow her anywhere near a situation that isn't totally in their control.

That marked the beginning of Plan B.

Run and hide Brewer and her weaknesses until November, and everybody would keep their jobs (and the revenue streams for their real "former" employers).

Then came word on Monday of new polling that shows Goddard has seriously closed on Brewer.

It's become obvious, even to those who have their heads buried in the sand at the bottom of the deepest underground bunker in the state (which has been made to look a *lot* like the 9th floor of the Executive Tower), that running and hiding is no longer a viable plan.

Instead of adapting to the changed circumstances (something that might just involve cranio-rectal dislodgement surgery), they've chosen to go back to Plan A.

Stereotypes, extremist rhetoric, and lies.

From an interview with Jorge Ramos of Univision, via Huffington Post -

RAMOS: But you understand people were upset that you said that the majority of undocumented immigrants were drug mules when in reality they are not. The majority are not.


BREWER: Well, if you know; if you are coming across with the drug cartels, and you're hauling drugs, then you are. And they're probably not doing it willingly; they are probably not doing it willingly.

RAMOS: Do you still believe the majority are drug mules? The majority of undocumented immigrants are bringing drugs to this country?

BREWER: I think that it has increased. I think that it has increased.

If The Debate was Brewer's "Brain Fart" moment, this could well be her "doubling down on a pair of 8s when Goddard is showing a 10" moment.

We'll know in November if her ploy is effective.

Later...

Fact Checking the Arizona Republic

Wherein I have the opportunity to correct one (or more) career journalists on the facts...

One of the advantages of doing this is that I've learned a *lot* about the technical aspects of Arizona politics.  Probably not as much as if I had been a student in one of Harry Mitchell's civics classes at Tempe High, but I've learned enough to actually help out Capitol tour guides on at least one occasion at the legislature.

So my eyebrows raised a little on Sunday when I read this passage from the Arizona Republic's Political Insider column -

Brewer may not have a second in command, but Secretary of State Ken Bennett seems to think he is capable of filling the job.

The "No. 2 spot," as Bennett described his office this week, would get a more powerful title if voters pass Proposition 111. The Nov. 2 ballot measure would essentially eliminate the office of secretary of state, transferring its duties to a newly created lieutenant-governor position.

Bennett said he won't take a stance on propositions that are under his watch as Arizona's current secretary of state, but he supports any "concept" that would make it clear that a vote for secretary of state could be a de facto vote for governor.

During an interview on Wednesday with The Arizona Republic's Editorial Board, Bennett said voters need a reminder that the position he holds is first in line to take over if Arizona's governor dies, resigns or, say, is recruited by the president to be the head of U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

When Brewer, Arizona's former secretary of state, took over for Janet Napolitano, Brewer appointed Bennett to her old job. Now, he is asking voters to elect him as secretary of state over challenger Chris Deschene, D-Window Rock. If he wins, and Prop. 111 passes, voters will be calling him Lt. Gov. Bennett.

Ummm...not-so-minor problem with that last paragraph - if Bennett wins in November, it's highly unlikely that anyone will *ever* refer to him as "Lt. Gov. Bennett."

Even if Prop. 111 passes (far from guaranteed) and survives some inevitable legal challenges (not likely, but more on that tomorrow or Tuesday after I make some phone calls), it won't go into effect until the 2014 cycle.

At that point, if Bennett wins this year, he'll be termed-out as Secretary of State and will be barred from running for the newly-renamed office. 

There *are* a couple of scenarios where Bennett could run for a possible Lt. Governorship.

1. He could lose this year (I like this one - vote Deschene!) and choose to run for it in 2014.

2. He could win this year, serve out the term, take a full term off to reset the term limits clock, and then run for the office again in 2018.

These two scenarios seem highly unlikely.  Regardless of this year's results in the SOS race, if Bennett runs for a statewide office in 2014, it will probably be for Governor.

- If Terry Goddard wins the November election for Governor, look for Bennett, Dean Martin, and one or two other R "big names" to look at challenging him in 2014.

- If Jan Brewer wins in November, she'll be termed-out in 2014 and the race will be for an open seat, and again, Bennett would be in the mix of Rs looking at the seat.

Adding to that is the fact that Bennett is both young enough (~50) and far enough up in Arizona's political food chain that he is still on the "up or out" political trajectory.  Taking a term off and then running for an office he has already held would be seen as the end of the "ascendancy" portion of his career and serve to reduce his credibility as a candidate overall.

Put it all together and neither Bennett nor Deschene (whichever one wins in November) will be referred to as "Lieutenant Governor" after the election, and Bennett will likely never run for that particular office in the event Prop. 111 passes the voters.


More on Prop. 111 later this week...

Arizona's descent in "Third World" social and economic status continues

Let's see, after generations of Republican control of the legislature...

- Arizona has one of the most overcrowded and underfunded education systems in the country (more here and here)...

- Arizona has a literacy rate below the U.S. national average...which is already below that of places like Samoa, Mongolia, and Uzbekistan...

- Arizona now has the 2nd highest percentage of its population living in poverty in the United States...but hey, at least we're ahead of Mississippi!...

- Arizona has the third-highest teen pregnancy rate in the U.S...

On top of all this (and more.  I could have done this for hours) comes the latest news of the state's epic failure of leadership.

From an Arizona Republic article -

Worries about Arizona's economic future led a financial-services company this month to downgrade the state's debt rating, which could make it more expensive for the government to borrow money.

Moody's Investors Service lowered the state's debt rating from Aa2 to Aa3, citing the state's economic weakness, budget deficit and reliance on non-recurring revenue sources such as selling off and leasing back state buildings.

Hmmm... the state's "economic weakness, budget deficit" and the accounting sleight-of-hand used to "balance" the budget have led to skeptical views of the state's ability to meet its financial obligations?


No wonder Jan Brewer is running only on her "demonize Mexicans" campaign plank and Republicans all over the state are running away from direct debates with any ballot opponents.


BTW - While Arizona *is* ahead of Mississippi in terms of poverty rate, Mississippi is ahead of AZ in terms of credit rating.

Jan Brewer and failed leadership: This week's lession

Jan Brewer has staked out "border security" and immigration as her signature issue during her campaign for a full term as governor of Arizona, hence her now-infamous signing of SB1070.

She hasn't anything substantial on the matter (even SB1070 turns out to have been somewhat unconstitutional), but her speeches on the subject have been paragons of bluster and bloviating, which was likely the real purpose of the whole "sign SB1070"/"embrace the nativists" two-step.

And when she has the chance to engage is something a little more substantial than speeches as local Republican organizations, well, she doesn't.

From the Arizona Republic -

Brewer not at U.S, Mexico governors meeting

SANTA FE, N.M. - U.S. and Mexican border governors are gathering in Santa Fe to focus on border security, economic development and energy.

Gov. Bill Richardson and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger are co-hosting the event scheduled to begin Sunday.

{snip}

The governors of Arizona and Texas have said they will not attend.

Contrary to the rumor circulating around the internet (a rumor that I may be starting right now :) ), she didn't pass on the conference because New Mexico has border checkpoints* to keep the riff raff out.   She didn't want to be embarrassed when she failed the literacy test by failing to correctly spell "Albuquerque."

Nope.  This conference was originally scheduled to take place in Arizona.  Some of the Mexican governors who were scheduled to be in Arizona expressed objections to SB1070 and were going to boycott the conference.  Brewer objected to their objections and cancelled the conference.

And now that they are holding it anyway, she refuses to attend, even to discuss economic issues, something that the [alleged] leader of the 2nd-poorest state in the nation should pay attention to.

Or would, if she had any "leader" in her personality.

Debates for the week of September 20, 2010

Most info from the website of the Citizens Clean Elections Commission.

Statewide candidates:

Secretary of State
September 22, 2010

7:00 PM - 7:30 PM
Televised on KAET
Horizon Channel 8


Legislative candidates:

LD18
Monday, September 20, 2010

6:00 PM
Phoenix Mesa Marriott Hotel
200 N Centennial Way
Mesa, AZ 85201


LD3
Tuesday, September 21, 2010

6:00 PM
Bullhead Area Chamber of Commerce Conference Center
1251 Highway 95
Bullhead City, AZ 86429

LD8
September 21, 2010

6:30 PM
Kerr Cultural Center
6110 N Scottsdale Rd
Scottsdale, AZ 85253

 
LD2
Wednesday, September 22, 2010

6:00 PM
Woodlands Radisson Hotel
1175 W Route 66
Flagstaff, AZ 86001


LD7
Thursday, September 23, 2010

6:00 PM
Appaloosa Library
City of Scottsdale
7377 E Silverstone Rd
Scottsdale, AZ 85255


Scottsdale City Council candidate forum (complete community meeting notice here):

Brown Avenue Merchants City Council Debates
Monday, September 20, 2010
6:00 p.m.

City Hall Kiva Forum
3939 N. Drinkwater Blvd.



Later...

Ballot updates: Arizona and Maricopa County

Statewide and legislative:

Withdrawals -

Nothing significant that hasn't already been covered, but it's still nice to visit the Secretary of State's page listing withdrawn candidates and see the name of Republican Steve May and seven of the faux-Greens that he helped to scam their way onto the ballot.

The SOS' page listing all official write-in candidates for statewide and legislative candidates is here.

Running unopposed in the general election:

Democrat Jack Jackson Jr., State Senate, LD2
Democrat Steve Gallardo, State Senate, LD13
Democrat Robert Meza, State Senate, LD14
Democrat Leah Landrum, State Senate, LD16
Republican John McComish, State Senate, LD20
Republican Steve Yarbrough, State Senate, LD21
Republican Andy Biggs, State Senate, LD22
Democrat Olivia Cajero Bedford, State Senate, LD27 (2 "write-ins" have declared for the race)
Democrat Linda Lopez, State Senate, LD29

Republicans Doris Goodale and Nancy McLain, State House, LD3
Democrats Richard Miranda and Anna Tovar, State House, LD13
Democrats Chad Campbell and Debbie McCune-Davis, State House, LD14
Republicans Eddie Farnsworth and Steve Urie, State House, LD22

In addition to those candidates who are completely unopposed on November's ballot, a few others face only opponents from "minor" party candidates (i.e. - Libertarians and Greens):

Republican Rich Crandall, State Senate, LD19 - sole opposition is a Libertarian
Democrats Tom Chabin and Albert Hale, State House, LD2 - one Libertarian is on the ballot
Republicans Tom Forese and J.D. Mesnard, State House, LD21 - one Green is on the ballot


Maricopa County:

Non-partisan general election candidate listing here.

Withdrawn from the race for the Board of Directors of the Central Arizona Project (CAWCD) -

Joseph Hobbs


Considered elected due to lack of opposition -

Susan Gerard and Elbert Bicknell, Districts 3 and 4 of the Board of Directors of the Maricopa Integrated Health System

Ruth Coleman, Jeff Gerber, and Edward Hurley of the Chandler County Island Fire District

Joseph Cantelme, Randy Hancock, and Brian Moore of the Daisy Mountain Fire District

Frank Haas and Dwight Music of the Harquahala Valley Fire District

Fern Ward of the Laveen Fire District

Clarence Hein and Burdena Pasenelli of the Rio Verde Fire District

David Calverley, Wayne Morrow, and Peter Reiss of the Scottsdale County Island Fire District

William Hamel and Jack Meyer of the Sun City West Fire District

Diane Price and Michael Sellers of the Sun Lakes Fire District

Victor Zaharchenko of the Tempe County Island Fire District

No candidates for: Aguila and Wickenburg Volunteer Fire Districts.

In addition, many of the above-listed districts didn't have a sufficient number of candidates to fill out their boards, so there may be write-ins or after-election appointments to fill out the district boards.


In partisan races -

Facing token opposition:

Republican Bill Montgomery faces only a Libertarian in his race to serve out the last two years of failed AG candidate Andrew Thomas' unexpired term as Maricopa County Attorney

Republican Mark Anderson faces only a Libertarian in his race for West Mesa Justice of the Peace

Republican Dan Ryan faces an independent write-in candidate in his race for McDowell Mountain Constable


Unopposed:

Democrat Joe Guzman, Justice of the Peace, Agua Fria
Republican Phillip Woolbright, Justice of the Peace, Arrowhead
Democrat Armando Gandarilla, Justice of the Peace, Downtown
Republican Mark Chiles, Justice of the Peace, East Mesa
Democrat C. Steven McMurry, Justice of the Peace, Encanto
Republican Chris Mueller, Justice of the Peace, Hassayampa
Democrat J.B. Getzwiller, Justice of the Peace, Ironwood
Republican Gary Handley, Justice of the Peace, Manistee
Republican Michael Reagan, Justice of the Peace, McDowell Mountain
Republican Gerald Williams, Justice of the Peace, North Valley
Democrat Rachel Torres Carrillo, Justice of the Peace, West McDowell

Democrat Alfredo Gamez, Constable, Agua Fria
Republican Ron Myers, Constable, Arrowhead
Republican William Taylor, Constable, East Mesa
Democrat Maria Ligocki-Russell, Constable, Encanto
Republican Miles Keegan, Constable, Hassayampa
Republican Billy Spurlock, Constable, Ironwood
Republican Lennie McCloskey, Constable, Manistee
Republican Philip Hazlett, Constable, North Valley
Republican James Kevin Jones, Constable, San Marcos
Democrat Ben Miranda, Constable, South Mountain
Republican Joe Arredondo, Constable, University Lakes
Democrat Rudy Santa Cruz, Constable, West McDowell
Republican Fred Arnett, Constable, West Mesa


Updates on the actual races as the general election grows nearer...

Latest poll: Arizonans dissatisfied with the legislature's handling of the state's finances

ASU's Morrison Institute of Public Policy has released the results of a poll showing that a solid majority, one that crosses all partisan lines, is dissatisfied with the legislature's handling of the state's budget.

In the poll, 61% of Republicans, 76% of Democrats, 67% of Independents and 68% overall disapproved or strongly disapproved of the job that the Arizona legislature has done with the state's budget.


Other highlights included:

66% (63% R, 71% D, and 62% I) agreed or strongly agreed with the statement "I believe the state Legislature has the wrong priorities."

52% (73% R, 29% D, and 49% I) agreed or strongly agreed with the statement "I believe the governor has provided good leadership in formulating state public policy."

74% (61% R,  83% D and 75% I) agreed or strongly agreed with the statement "There is too much partisan conflict at the Arizona State Capitol."

67% (59% R, 71% D, and 70% I) agreed or strongly agreed with the statement "I would like to see more moderate candidates elected to public office."

Generally speaking, the results cited above (and not cited, due to space constraints here) favor Democrats in Arizona (though Terry Goddard is going to have to do better than split independents down the middle to have a chance to win the race for governor.)

There was one result that best illustrates the possible problem that faces Republicans this fall -

Only 36% (45% R, 20% D, and 38% I) agreed or strongly agreed with the statement "I am generally statisfied with the way things are going in Arizona state government."

I expected the low Democratic number on that one, but less than 1/2 of Republican respondents approved of the job that the incumbent majority has done on down on West Washington????

Maybe R candidates and officials should expand their sphere of constituent contact beyond local LD meetings and country club restaurants and golf courses (that's probably good advice in general, including for Democrats.)

No guarantees here, but numbers like those presented in the poll, if more than remotely accurate, speak to the possibility of Arizona running counter to the national trend of 2010 being a down year for Democrats.


There was also one seriously disappointing surprise in the poll -

45% (42% R, 50% D, and 44% I) agreed or strongly agreed with the statement "In times of budget crisis, the Legislature should be able to use funds protected by voter ballots."

HALF of Democrats trust the lege to appropriately handle funds from things like First Things First in times of "budget crisis"??  A larger percentage than even the Republicans?

I'll take this to mean that at least half of all Democrats don't read this blog, or Blog for Arizona, or Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion, or Democratic Diva, or Dry Heat Democrat, or....


Anyway, more poll info can be found here and here.

A Cronkite News Service story on the poll, via the Arizona Capitol Times, is here.

Congressman Harry Mitchell - "Advancing Research"

I know that in the last post, I mentioned that I don't normally post press releases verbatim, before doing so.  I'm doing it again, but letters from Congressman Harry Mitchell are something that I've always made an exception for.

From an email -

Degenerative diseases are devastating. We all have someone in our lives who suffers from a chronic and potentially life-threatening disease like Alzheimer’s, Lou Gehrig’s, Huntington’s, Parkinson’s, cancer or even diabetes. These relationships in my own life have pushed me to strongly support cutting-edge medical research so that we can discover treatments for the millions of Americans who suffer from a wide array of diseases and conditions.


One of the first things I did after taking office in 2007 was take to the floor of the House and urge my colleagues to overturn the stem cell research ban. Congress rarely gets an opportunity to offer hope to the millions of Americans who suffer from these diseases; however, last year we were given the opportunity to invest in science and ethical research. On March 9, 2009, President Obama issued an Executive Order to allow federal funding of human stem cell research, including human embryonic stem cell research. I thought this was a great step in the right direction because many scientists believe embryonic stem cells hold greater promise than adult stem cells for further scientific breakthroughs which will advance research on many devastating diseases.

Recently, the issue of stem cell research has been reintroduced to the national discussion as a result of a temporary injunction that was placed on federal stem cell research by a federal court in August.

Although the injunction has since been lifted by a higher federal court, I have joined on as a cosponsor to the Stem Cell Research Advancement Act of 2009, H.R. 4808. This bill would expand the lot of available stem cells for research by codifying that federal research projects may use stem cells regardless of the date on which the stem cells were derived. I am proud to be a supporter of this bill, and will continue to strongly support stem cell research to help discover treatments for a wide array of diseases and conditions.

As always, I look forward to being able to provide you with regular updates and continue our dialogue in support of advancing important medical research.

Sincerely,

Harry

Later...

Ben Quayle's Grueling Daily Campaign Schedule

I don't normally publish press releases verbatim, and Tedski at Rum, Romanism, Rebellion already has this one up, but it made me laugh. 

And that makes it worth a post of its own. 

From an ADP press release, Ben Quayle's daily schedule -

Ben Quayle - Daily Campaign Schedule


10:00 – 10:30 AM: Wake-up, get ready
Notes: Out of Frosted Flakes, order the maid to go buy more -- this time with a prize!

10:30 – 11:00 AM: Web surfing time
Notes: Use new password Nik gave me to get around Dad’s cybersecurity filters

11:00 – 11:15 AM: Fundraising meeting with Dad
Reminder: Don’t ask questions. Dad gets upset.

11:15 -11:30 AM: Check schedule to see if I have time to debate
Notes: I’m really very busy

11:30 AM – 12:30 PM: Gym
Reminder: Upper body, focus on abs

12:30 – 1:00 PM: Shower
Reminder: Wear the power suit that has the shoulder pads. Gotta look grown-up.

1:00 – 2:00 PM: Lunch – Stingray Sushi
Notes: Trainer says soy paper has fewer carbs

2:00 – 2:05 PM: Check schedule to see if I have time to debate
Notes: It still feels like I’m way busy

2:05 – 2:30 PM: Private tutoring session (Arizona 101)
Reminder: Ask tutor about those cities north and west of Scottsdale.

2:30 – 2:45 PM: Tynwald Capital
Reminder: Make sure Dad’s deposit into company went through so I can collect paycheck

3:00 – 4:00 PM: Play with Louie the Dog. My favorite campaign expenditure!

4:00 – 4:30 PM: Private tutoring session (Congress 101)
Reminder: Ask tutor about D.C. club scene. It better not be lame!

4:30 -5:00 PM: Check in with Dad on fundraising
Reminder: Don’t tell Dad I plan to go out tonight

5:00 – 5:02 PM: Check schedule to see if I have time to debate
Notes: Dude, where does the time go?

5:15 – 6:15 PM: Nap

6:30 – 8:00 PM: Invite bros over to party (keep it cool. no cops)
Notes: Show them new drinking game I invented. Cross between Flip Cup and Beer Pong – Super Beer Flip Cup Pong!

8:00 – 9:30 PM: Dinner at Barcelona

10:00 – 11:30 PM: Pre-club partying
Notes: Don't post any photos to Facebook this time!

11:30 PM – 2:00 AM: Hit the Scottsdale clubs
Notes: Dad’s folks following me, can’t let them catch me out like last time. Call for black Town Car to drive me home.

2:30 AM: Maid tucks me in
Notes: Tomorrow, I’ll think some more about debating. LOL!!!

There's nothing I can add.  I'm a wiseass, but this one is out-of-my-class funny.  Probably because it's closer to the truth than the Quayle camp would care to admit...

David Schweikert has a remarkably low opinion of AZRep reporters

...Of course, he probably has an even lower opinion of wiseass bloggers. :)

From YouTube -




I was going to title this post "Whatthehell was he thinking?", but I understand that Schweikert was on a radio talk show of the "preaching to the choir" variety.  Still, he is smart enough to know that *nothing* that is recorded (video or audio) ever really goes away.

Should make for an interesting conversation when he and Congressman Harry Mitchell sit down with the Rep's editorial board...

The Three Amigos vote against American workers...yet again

They may be poor representatives of the people of their districts, their state, and their country, but dammit, *nobody* can claim that they are inconsistent about it.  They almost always vote against the best interests of their constituents.

On Wednesday, Arizona's Three Amigos, better known as Congressmen Trent Franks, Jeff Flake, and John Shadegg (Rs - Whichever Corporation Is Ponying Up The Campaign Cash That Week) voted as a bloc against H.R.2039, the Congressional Made in America Promise Act of 2009.

The bill simply amends the original Buy American Act by extending its provisions "to articles, materials, and supplies acquired for the use of any legislative branch office, including the House of Representatives and the Senate..."

The Buy American Act requires that when purchasing materials for its use, the government give preference to American-made items.

Extending the provisions of that act to cover materials purchased by and for the chambers of Congress may not have a huge direct economic benefit for American workers (Congress may spend a lot of money on its operations, but it's less than a drop in the bucket of the entire economy), but the move is significant as a symbol of Congress' efforts to address the plight of American workers.

Hence the united opposition of Franks, Flake, and Shadegg.

Shadegg isn't running for reelection (but look for his name to pop up in two years if Jon Kyl doesn't run for another term in the Senate), but the other two are, and are facing strong Democratic opponents.

John Thrasher, the career teacher challenging Franks in CD2, has already sent out a press release highlighting the anti-American worker vote.

Rebecca Schneider, challenging Flake in CD6, has a page on her website highlighting Flake's unwavering "no" votes against anything that would help his district, state, or country.

They can use your help in defeating these stalwarts of the Party of NO - please contribute to John Thrasher's campaign here and to Rebecca Schneider's campaign here.

Later!

New investigation into MCSO "misconduct and mismanagement"

Something tells me that perhaps someone feels that the feds are getting close...

In what is probably the first in a string of public occurrences of Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio throwing someone under the PR bus, a memo written by one of his senior aides accusing another senior aide of "misconduct and mismanagement" was made public yesterday.

From the Arizona Republic -

A top aide to Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio has requested an investigation of the sheriff's second-in-command, Chief Deputy David Hendershott, and two of his allies, signaling growing concern among the sheriff's top hierarchy about the agency's management.

A memo written by Deputy Chief Frank Munnell and recently delivered to Arpaio alleges years of misconduct and mismanagement by Hendershott, who has directed day-to-day operations of the Sheriff's Office since 2008 and has been in the department's top echelon since the mid-1990s.

[snip}

Munnell asked Arpaio to place Hendershott and two of his close allies, Deputy Chief Larry Black and Capt. Joel Fox, on administrative leave pending an independent investigation by the Arizona Department of Public Safety.

Instead, Arpaio confirmed Wednesday, the sheriff sent the investigation to Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu, a close political ally.

"I decide who to send investigations to if it's necessary," Arpaio said, declining to comment further on the allegations. "This has been given by me to another agency. It wouldn't be appropriate for me to discuss it."

When describing the relationship between Arpaio and Babeu, "close political ally" is an understatement.  In many ways, Babeu could be best described as an "Arpaio in training."  I expect that his involvement with the case may actually be less to protect Black and Fox than to make sure any "investigation" doesn't go beyond those two.

All this comes on this week's $154K fine for Arpaio's illegal "in kind" contribution to the recent County Attorney campaign of another political ally, Bill Montgomery.  Arpaio funded a "hit piece" against Rick Romley, a long-time adversary and the other candidate for Maricopa County Attorney.

Note: some long-time or Arizona-based readers may recognize the name "Joel Fox."  Fox was the front man/fall guy in the one of the most brazen and tawdry illegal campaign finance schemes ever associated with Arizona politics.

Later...

Response to John Kavanagh's comment

Earlier today I wrote a post about the recently-released 2009 crime statistics and how they serve to undermine Jan Brewer's campaign plank of "Fear The Dastardly Brown-Skinned People."

That post elicited a comment from LD8 State Representative John Kavanagh (R-Fountain Hills), a comment that deserves a post of its own in response.

First, his comment -

It is all but impossible to use statewide crime statistics to measure the impact of a "shadow group," such as illegal immigrants, on crime. Of course if you were so inclined, the decrease in crime between 2008 and 2009 is consistent with illegals causing more crime because that is when the jobs and illegal immigrants both began to leave Arizona. But again, it is stretching the data to arrive at any conclusion.

A better indicator, although once again not a complete one, is to compare the number of known criminal illegal aliens with their portion of the population. Using the often cited Pew estimate of 500,000 illegal immigrants in Arizona, we can conclude that they comprise about 7.7% of the population. However, they make up about 14% of persons “booked” into Maricopa County jails and constitute about 14.7% of Arizona’s prison population. Thus, known data supports the view that illegal immigrants commit more crime, beyond being here illegally, than legal residents.

State Rep. John Kavanagh

My response:

Let the spin begin.

OK, that's too snarky.

First, I want to thank Rep. Kavanagh for his comment. 

I may disagree with him on pretty much everything that Ds and Rs can disagree on, but his comment was a serious one and deserves the courtesy of a serious response.

His first paragraph was actually correct, as far as it goes - the data gathered and published by the FBI doesn't specify the demographic origin of the people who committed the criminal acts that make up the statistics.  The criminals behind the acts could be undocumented immigrants, legal immigrants, citizens (native born or naturalized), or little green men from Mars*. 

Nor does the data explain the reduction in criminal activity, only that there *was* a reduction.

However, he should have left it at that.  While Kavanagh feels, perhaps with some justification, that the crime data released by the FBI is incomplete, he tried to buttress his anti-immigrant rhetoric with statistics of questionable provenance.

He cited statistics generated by the Maricopa County Sheriff's Office (MCSO) to prove his point that undocumented immigrants commit crimes at a rate out of proportion with their numbers in society as a whole.

Specifically, he trots out the percentage of undocumented immigrants booked into county jail as proof of his position.

The problem with that?  MCSO targets undocumented immigrants (and documented immigrants, and citizens who happen look like they have ancestors with some familiarity with the Spanish language) for harassment and arrest out of proportion to their numbers in Maricopa County as a whole, to the point that MCSO has sacrificed service of felony and misdemeanor warrants, a prime function of sheriff's offices all over the country, in order to divert resources and personnel to headline- and camera-grabbing anti-immigrant sweeps.

The stats coming out of the MCSO may be accurate in terms of what the MCSO does, but that doesn't mean that those stats accurately reflect Arizona or even Maricopa County as a whole.

In other words, while undocumented immigrants may make up 14% (or more) of those arrested by MCSO, they aren't necessarily responsible for 14% (or more) of the crimes committed in Maricopa County.


* - If little green men from Mars are involved, the Men In Black want to know. :)

Brewer: "crime's up"; FBI: Only if by "up" you mean "down"

Jan Brewer spent most of the spring and summer bolstering her (now-successful) bid for the AZGOP's nomination for governor by playing into the GOP base's fear of the "other," particularly immigrants.  She has spent the last few months spouting off about a growing crime wave that is wracking Arizona, particularly immigrant-caused crimes.

...In her statement regarding her approval of SB1070...

...In the Clean Elections debate for the Republican candidates for governor...

...During an interview with Fox News...

...And in numerous other speeches, interviews, and press releases.

She spends most of her time talking up her stance against immigrants, but ignoring the issues that matter most to Arizonans - the state's failing education system (for their children's future) and the state's cratered economy (for their own present and future).  She has nothing to address those concerns.

Well, it turns out that she has little more than nothing on crime - her alleged "crime wave" that Arizonans from which Arizonans need protection is nothing but a lie.

From the FBI's 2009 crime statistics for Arizona, released on Monday -


Violent crimes: down 13.9% (compared to a national drop of 5.3%)

Violent crime rate (per 100K population): down 15.1% (nationally, decreased 6.1%)


Property crimes: down 11.7% (down 4.6% nationally)

Property crime rate: down 13% (down 5.5% nationally)


Across the board, crime in Arizona has declined at a greater rate than the decline nationally.


I'm guessing that at some point, Brewer's handlers told her to keep driving home the "crime is up" talking point, probably both to bolster support for her among the fearful GOP faithful and to subtly undermine the credibility of the Democratic nominee, Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard.

However, lying so brazenly only serves to further undermine her credibility as a candidate best qualified to lead Arizona into the next decade.

And after her dreadful performance during the televised debate with Goddard, she needs to shore up her credibility, not undermine it.

Jim Holway, candidate for CAWCD

In Arizona and across the country, the two most important issues on voters' minds this fall are the kitchen table issues of education and jobs.  They want to have a sense of security about their presents and futures (and those of their children) and will cast their votes for candidates that they think will work to enhance education and fix the economy.

However, this being Arizona, a third item should be added to that list.

Water.

Without it, there won't be many people here to benefit from the education system.  Of course, since there won't be any people here to sustain the economy because people follow jobs as much as or more than jobs follow people, there won't be any need to strengthen Arizona's education system.

Because of that, the need for a sustainable supply of clean water, the most important office that almost no one has ever heard of is the Central Arizona Water Conservation District (CAWCD).  The members of CAWCD serve as the board of directors of the Central Arizona Project (CAP).  CAP oversees and handles the delivery of Colorado River water to central Arizona (aka - metro Phoenix) and Tucson.

CAWCD, while a low-visibility office, is one that is vital to the long-term viability of Arizona economically and socially, and it is an office where we need elect the most qualified and knowledgeable candidates.

This is the first in a series of posts about some of the candidates in this year's race.

First up:  Jim Holway, a retired water resources manager and educator, and a long-time community activist and leader. 

From an email -

Candidate


Jim Holway

Elect Experienced & Responsible Leadership

Over 20 Years of Water Management Experience:

Arizona Department of Water Resources, Assistant Director

ASU Professor, Water Policy and Sustainability

ASU Coordinator, Arizona Water Institute

Director, Western Lands and Communities Program, Sonoran Institute


Community Leadership:

Phoenix Parks Board, 9 years; Chair for 2 years

Papago Park Ad Hoc Advisory Committee, Chairperson, 3 years

Arizona Town Hall Research Committee, 2 years

Trust for Public Land, Arizona Advisory Council, 4 years

Arizona Heritage Alliance, Board of Directors, 3 years

Governor’s Growing Smarter Oversight Council, 4 years


Education:

PhD Regional Planning, University of North Carolina

BA Political Science, Cornell University


Jim’s experience and leadership skills will help Arizonans to plan and invest for an affordable and sustainable water future.

What is CAWCD?

The Central Arizona Water Conservation District operates the Central Arizona Project, bringing Colorado River water 336 miles across the desert from Lake Havasu through Phoenix to south of Tucson. CAWCD operates the canal system, pumping plants, and the Navajo generating station. The power required to deliver CAP water makes CAWCD the single largest user of electricity in the State of Arizona.

The CAWCD Board is comprised of 15 members from Maricopa, Pinal and Pima counties, each serving a 6 year term. Maricopa County voters will elect 5 board members on November 2, 2010.

Key issues facing the CAWCD Board include:

Promoting efficient operations and wise water use

Securing the next “bucket” of water to supply Central Arizona

Preparing for drought and the potential for more severe future droughts

Maintaining healthy ecosystems and water quality in the Colorado River Basin

Representing Arizona in multi-state and international negotiations

Paid for by Holway for CAWCD

http://www.jimholway.com/  HolwayforCAWCD@gmail.com

Please Vote November 2, 2010

Later...