2014 Predictions: Arizona edition

My last post was all about 2013; this one is all about 2014.

It's also all about satire, or at least I hope it is.  However, given the frequent bizarreness of politics in Arizona, anything could happen...

Inspiration, and format, shamelessly stolen "gratefully borrowed" from Eli at Deep Thought.

Note:  All of the below is satire.  I hope.



January -

- With great fanfare, the Arizona Legislature convenes its 2014 session.  Among the promises made during the opening day festivities:  that the lege will spend less time attacking public employee unions and education and more time on bringing jobs to Arizona.

The first proposal considered by the lege is a bill from State Senator Al "Slave Labor" Melvin that would have prisoners from the state's correctional system "volunteer" to work for political campaigns of statewide candidates who are former members of the Merchant Marine.

Senate President Andy Biggs tries to show that the 2014 Arizona Legislature is a "kinder, gentler" lege, run by "compassionate conservatives".

He assigns Melvin's bill to every Senate committee that Melvin isn't on.  Melvin gets the message...sort of.

He abandons the measure, but promises to keep working on the issue.

- In late January, after a meeting between him, the finance director of his faltering gubernatorial campaign and a lobbyist for a manufacturer of body armor, Melvin proposes that the state's prisoners be put to work for a private contractor, manufacturing body armor for the state's law enforcement officers.

- In other news, State Rep. Carl Seel submits a resolution expelling all of the members who voted for Medicaid restoration in 2013.  In an effort to gain Democratic votes, he offers to amend the measure to only include the Republicans who supported Medicaid.

It doesn't work.


February -

- Melvin's proposal sails through the lege on a party-line vote and is immediately signed into law by Governor Jan Brewer.  Well, "immediately" after her "advisers" meet with the same lobbyist.

- State Rep. Adam Kwasman offers a "reverse secession" proposal, that would expel the legislative districts represented by Republicans who voted for Medicaid expansion from the state of Arizona.

The measure fails when the members of Arizona's Congressional delegation point out that such a scheme would result in fewer seats in Congress for Arizona, fewer seats for state legislators to aspire to.


March -

- Quality assurance tests on the first sets of body armor produced under Melvin's proposal indicate that maaaayyybe someone didn't think through the ramifications of having the state's convicts supply body armor for the state's police officers.

The title of the report of the testing: "Paper Mache".

After production is stopped, and at the suggestion of Phoenix City Councilman Sal DiCiccio, the few complete sets of body armor are given as gifts to the heads of each public employee union in the state.

- State Rep. Bob Thorpe introduces a striker that requires all public school systems to supply body armor to their students.  When it is pointed out that school budgets won't be able to afford both body armor and books, Thorpe reminisces "my Bible and my slate were good enough when I was a child, they're good enough for today's children".

Thorpe's measure passed the lege on a party-line vote and is immediately signed by the Governor, whereupon the state and the lege are sued by nearly every parent in Arizona.


April -

- A court enjoins the new school body armor law, so the lege, desperate to be seen as doing *something* about the rash of school shootings in the US, cites the danger...to legislators...and bans school groups from visiting the state capitol.

- Thorpe tries to insert language into a budget reconciliation bill that would make it a Class 6 felony to be shot while not wearing body armor.  The effort fails when someone tries to amend the language to exempt legislators.

- The lege starts wrangling over the budget, and fears rise that the session may go on into June.  Then someone reminds them that this is an election year and that they need to get to campaigning.  With that, a budget is proposed on Monday, April 21 and passed by both chambers of the lege on Thursday, April 24.  The session wraps up in the wee hours of Friday, April 25.


May -

- Disheartened by the occasional sanity exhibited by their candidates for governor, a delegation from the "bay at the moon" caucus of the AZGOP journeys to Toronto to recruit the mayor, Rob Ford, for the race.  The delegation is made up of former state senators Lori Klein, Ron Gould, and Frank Antenori.  Ford considers the proposal, and then looks the trio straight in the eye and informs them that he may be utterly crack-addled but still isn't stupid enough to go for a job where he would have to deal with people like them on a daily basis.

On their way back into the US,  they are stopped at the border and barred from reentering the US.  The border agent read some of the proposals submitted by the threesome during their times in the lege and decided they must have been on drugs.  And based on their visit to Ford, still are.

They're thoroughly searched, even being subjected to MRIs, colonoscopies, and brain scans.  Nothing is found, except by the colonoscopies.  However, even those show nothing unexpected, just a volume of material that is almost unprecedented in the annals of human biology, and they are released.

June -

- Governor Jan Brewer finally succumbs to massive outside pressure and sends a letter to CPS head Clarence Carter requesting his resignation.

When the letter reaches the offices of CPS, it is ignored.

- Al Melvin's campaign for governor ends when it turns out that his nominating petitions were circulated by the same Abraham Lincoln he frequently quoted during the campaign.

A Lincoln that didn't exist.

All of the petitions that were signed on the back by "Honest Abe Lincoln" are thrown out, taking Melvin's signature quantity below the threshold required.


July -

- At a debate involving the Republican candidates in CD1, there's a little "I'm more conservative than thou" tit-for-tat.

Candidate Andy Tobin proposes requiring lifetime drug testing for welfare recipients, even when they no longer receive public benefits.  Fellow candidate Adam Kwasman goes for the Grover Norquist endorsement and counters by proposing that welfare recipients be decapitated.  A third candidate, Gary Kiehne, urges compromise - decapitation for welfare recipients, and lifetime drug testing for the headsmen.

Onlookers start muttering about drug testing debate participants.

- The Cardinals open training camp with a revamped team,  The Bidwills, following the example of the University of Arizona marching band, rent the defense of the Northwestern State (LA) football team.  And rent the UA marching band to serve as the offense.

- News breaks that President Barack Obama has found a cure for cancer.


August -

- The Arizona Legislature convenes in a special session to pass a resolution in support of...cancer.

- GOP operatives sue to bar people who would be disenfranchised by HB2305 from voting on the measure in November, saying that they have a conflict of interest.

The case is promptly heard by the Arizona Supreme Court, who dismiss the lawsuit with a brief opinion.

Loosely translated from the Latin:  "Thanks for a laugh, but you are morons." (It sounded more profound and professional in Latin, hence the use of Latin in the opinion)

- The results from the primary election late in the month indicate that Republican voters have ceded some of the November races:

 Tom Horne wins the nomination for Attorney General, setting up a rematch of the 2010 race against Felecia Rotellini.

 Ev Mecham is written in by a majority of Republican voters in the race for the nomination for governor.  They are expressing their disappointment over the failure of Al Melvin to make it on to the ballot.

  In CD1, "none of the above" is the choice of R voters to face incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick.


September -

- After a televised gubernatorial debate, local pundits are turned off by Democrat Fred Duval's use of complete sentences and words with more than two syllables and declare the corpse of Ev Mecham to be the victor.

They deem the silent Mecham's performance to be "Brewer-like".


October -

- Led by the R members of Arizona's Congressional delegation, the US House tries to implement a limited government shutdown that only covers the delivery of early ballots by the US Postal Service.

The scheme falls apart when it is pointed out that the Postal Service isn't actually subsidized by the federal government and can't be arbitrarily shut down for partisan gain.

The schemers pledge to keep trying.


November -

- The election results show that while the Republicans will retain their majorities in both the Arizona legislature and the US House of Representatives, those majorities will be smaller.

The day after the election, the Republicans respond to the news by sticking their fingers in their ears and shouting "LALALALALA - I can't hear you - LALALALA!!", over and over.

The day after the day after, most of the Republicans are admitted to hospitals to have surgery to dislodge their fingers from their ears.


December -

- The Cardinals go winless, and by the end of the season, fanless.  However, the Bidwills call the season a success because they lowered the team's personnel costs to near zero.

- The new GOP caucuses in both the state senate and the state house of representatives announce their mass resignation, citing the fact that the voters of Arizona overturned HB2305 in November.

The tag line of their resignation letter - "Partisan politics isn't much fun when you can't disenfranchise the people who won't vote for you".

- Clarence Carter finally resigns, but only to take a new job in a new agency - Arizona's Department of Fetal Protective Services.  He is recommended for the job by Cathi Herrod and Trent Franks.

More than one Reagan facing a primary in 2014

It's early yet, so things could change, but for some reason, one non-statewide race is already shaping up to have the most active primary, of the non-statewide races anyway.

In Maricopa County, some of the safest seats are among the lowest-profile seats - Justice of the Peace.

There are 26 of them, each with their own district (justice precincts), and other than one or two, all are "safe" districts, in partisan terms.

In many of the districts, the only real races are in the primaries, and often even those don't happen unless the seat up for election is vacant or the incumbent is an embarrassment (and given that the Arizona judiciary is actually pretty good at policing itself, the embarrassments are usually weeded out before their next election).

Which brings us to the McDowell Mountain Justice Precinct.  The JP there is Michael Reagan, the father of State Senator Michele Reagan (R-LD23), a 2014 candidate for Arizona Secretary of State.

He has filed to run for reelection, so the seat isn't "open", and while his politics are objectionable (hey, I'm a D :) ), his conduct in office has not been embarrassing, so far as I know, anyway.

Yet three (count 'em!) people have already signed up for a primary run at him -

Christina Weisman ($500 Threshold Committee)

Gayle Lee

Kathryn Shearer


On this one, I am genuinely curious. 

What's going on up there (north Scottsdale)?  Have some folks gotten the idea that Reagan isn't running for reelection, something that Reagan himself doesn't know about, since he has filed for reelection?  Is there something embarrassing about his conduct in office, something that apparently isn't widely known?  Is there just something in the water there?

A few thoughts on the tea party types' shutdown of the federal government...

Now that the shutdown is all but over (as I write this, the US House just passed a clean CR to re-open the government), it's time to put into writing some observations, thoughts, and predictions.

Not in any particular order -

...Prediction: 2014 went from being a year where Democratic candidates, especially federal-level candidates, were expected to face a headwind to one where Republicans will be the ones facing some hard questions.

Traditionally (meaning "more often than not"), the party that controls the White House loses Congressional seats during the mid-term elections of a president's second term.  This mess may have changed the likelihood of that happening in 2014.

Note: this may be a truism, though it's not an absolute truth.  As this chart shows, the midterm elections during a president's first term tend to be rougher on that president's party.

It's a year out from the 2014 elections, so the picture could change dramatically, but that would take a certain faction of the Republican Party pulling their heads out of their asses.  I'm not holding my breath waiting for that to happen.

Betcha they are, though. :)

...Prediction:  John Boehner's (R-OH) speakership is toast.  He may keep his job for the remainder of the term, but regardless of the outcome of the 2014 elections, he will not be Speaker of the House in the next session of Congress. 

Either the Democrats will retake the House (possible, but not likely, IMO) and choose Nancy Pelosi (or some other D) to be Speaker, or the Rs will hold on to a (probably) smaller majority and choose someone who isn't as weak as Boehner.

Bottom line: sometimes a leader has to give those he leads a little free rein; sometimes a leader has to "lead".  Boehner let the bat-shit crazy tail of his caucus wag the entire caucus and endanger the nation's, and maybe the world's, economy.

That's more than "free rein"; *far* more, and far worse.


...Observation:  One difference between the Democrats and Republicans (OK, one of the many :) ) that was highlighted by this mess is the fact that most Democrats in office want to govern; most Republicans in office want to rule.

Hence the R apoplexy over hearing the word "no" when the Democrats didn't give in to their ransom demands.


...Thought:  The CR funds the government until January 15 and suspends the debt limit until February 7.  That sets up the possibility of going through this mess again in a few months.  However, most of the people involved in this mess will be running for reelection by them.  While many of them will still be looking for a little payback over losing this fight, many others will be more concerned with making their voters happy.  While another big fight could take place after the holidays, my guess is that there won't be another serious blowup until after the midterms.

Note:  This one is more a "wish" than a "thought" or even "prediction".  When Republicans like Rep. Peter King (R-NY) and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) seem like voices of reason within their caucuses, the Congress and the country as a whole are in trouble.


...Prediction:  It probably won't happen during this term, but look for earmarks to return.  They were both the carrot and stick of party discipline in Congress.  Without them, the leadership on both sides of the aisle have few tools at their disposal to corral and control votes.


...Observation:  Many less overtly political people are calling for the creation of a third party, as the Republicans and Democrats have been in control for too long.  I understand the sentiment, but believe that it is a lazy and superficial one.

One of the reasons that the Democrats and Republicans have maintained their political prominence for so long is that, historically, they've adapted to society's changes.

The problem today is that one of the major parties is controlled by a small but vocal group that thinks society should adapt to them, not the other way around.


...Prediction:  In a few months, or even weeks, the more thoughtful of the Republicans responsible for this mess will sit up, look in a mirror, and wonder "Whatthehell were we thinking?"

Not because they think the possibility of crashing the world economy and destroying the US' credibility is a bad thing (they obviously don't think that), but because a few short weeks ago, the President was on the defensive over things like an impending war with Syria and the NSA surveillance of Americans and others.

His base was fractured (or at least showing a few cracks) and the tea party types had an effective rhetorical cudgel to swing at the President. 

Now?  The President's base and independents have unified behind him, and even people who heretofore had supported the tea party are now distancing themselves from it.


...More to come...

The 2014 Republican Dream Team is assembling...

...well, "Dream" by my standards; probably not so much by the GOP's...

The Republican fields for the various statewide offices that are up for election next year are becoming clearer, to the point that in many of the races, there are favorites.

As in, candidates who people who are not Republicans hope emerge victorious in the Republican primary.

Under the theory that many of candidates have weaknesses that are so overwhelming that they should be easy to defeat in the general election.


...The team "Cap'n" of the Dream Team is, of course, candidate for governor "Atomic" Al Melvin.

Currently a state senator, he's part of the "Bay at the Moon" caucus at the state lege.  In fact he's one of the leaders.

When he isn't trying to turn Arizona into a nuclear waste dump or pushing to expand slave prison labor here, he is spouting off, like with his recent assertion that trees cause drought conditions.

He's looking to pull off the same play that the notorious Ev Mecham pulled off more than a quarter century ago.  If he does gain the office, he has the potential to embarrass and even damage the state even more than Mecham.  However, his presence at the top of the ticket will serve as an anchor on the rest of the ticket.


...The Dream Team's candidate for Cap'n in Waiting, aka "Secretary of State", is State Senator Michele Reagan.  She's nowhere near as colorful as Melvin.  Never a true "moderate", she was known as someone who would do the right thing for her district and state.  However, her political hard right turn over the last few years, perhaps in preparation for a statewide run, has her firmly ensconced in the heart (such as it is) of the Republican establishment.  Even though she is running for Secretary of State, the state's chief elections officer, she pushed nearly every anti-voter bill that was heard by the Arizona legislature this year.  The provisions of most of those bills were rolled into the blanket non-Republican voter suppression package known as HB2305.

However, none of the above is the reason she is on this list.

Nope.  It's simple statistics.

Over the past 20 years, literally dozens of sitting Republican legislators have sought higher office* while still in the lege.  Two have succeeded - Matt Salmon ran for Congress in 1994 and John Huppenthal ran for State Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2010.

And Salmon did it during a period that held the legislature in somewhat higher esteem than it is now.

To be sure, in AZ, many statewide and federal electeds are former legislators.  However, other than the two exceptions, all had at least one term away from the legislature before gaining the higher office.

* = Federal or statewide office.  County and municipal offices in AZ are steps up in esteem level (or at least reductions in notoriety level), but steps down in influence level.


...The Dream Team's candidate for enforcer, aka "Attorney General", is the incumbent, Tom Horne.

Possibly the weakest candidate of a weak bunch, an almost unheard-of description of an incumbent.

However, any state attorney general with a resume that includes a federal investigation over campaign finance violations, charges stemming from a hit-and-run accident while leaving a nooner at his girlfriend's home, and giving that girlfriend a highly-paid taxpayer-funded job probably should be looking for a new job.

However, Horne is looking for another term as AG.  It will be up to the voters to tell him that it's time to leave.

...The Dream Team's candidate for Mr. Moneybags, aka "State Treasurer", is Randy Pullen, former chair of the AZGOP and treasurer of the Republican National Committee.  On Thursday, he announced his "exploration" of a run for treasurer (source: Channel 12's Brahm Resnik).

A candidate for state treasurer who's known more for his divisiveness and his poor judgement (note: those are three sources that I never even imagined that I'd link to :) ) in handling others' money than for his financial acumen?

That would be a gift...to whoever else is on the ballot for that office.


...The Dream Team's candidate for Minister of Propaganda, aka "Superintendent of Public Instruction", is the incumbent, John Huppenthal.

Hates public education in a state where the vast majority of parents can't afford private schools and he hates Hispanic people in a state where the Hispanic population is growing both in size and political influence.

That combination is more ripe for a political Darwin award than it is for re-election.


...Note: I am not including the office of State Mine Inspector because it is too low-profile.  Most people in AZ don't know the office exists; most that do cannot name the officeholder.  Perhaps at the founding of AZ, it was a necessary position, but these days it just a place for former rural legislators to pad their pensions and a chance to hobknob with mining industry lobbyists.


Predictions: If the Rs were to nominate this slate, I would be very happy...and very surprised.

...Melvin doesn't seem likely to emerge from the primary, but neither did Ev Mecham in 1986.  At least by the standards of the AZGOP,  being "bay at the moon crazy" doesn't disqualify someone from being their candidate.

...Reagan is the "establishment" candidate, in a party that is being wracked by paroxysms of anti-"establishment" fervor.  Probably the favorite, for now, but not a prohibitive one.

...Horne should be toast.  Someone who's even a little more polished should have little trouble dispatching him in the primary.  If no one does, however, Felecia Rotellini, the presumptive Democratic nominee for the job, will thoroughly kick his ass in the general election.  Which is the main reason that Horne will face a primary challenger.

...Pullen may very well win the nomination, but he has so many enemies within the AZGOP that it won't be easy for him.

...Huppenthal, well, many people (me among them), have written his political epitaph before.  And we've been wrong each time.  He is utterly unqualified for elected office or any position of public trust.  Having said that, no smack talk until it's proven that he can be defeated.

Candidate and Committee update

Most of this has been covered elsewhere this week; this is mostly just a compilation.

Federal level -

No new candidates to report as of this writing, but on Channel 12's Sunday Square Off this morning, the panelists did speculate/rumor-spread (not that I've ever done such things :) ) that AZ House Speaker Andy Tobin will enter a race for a seat in Congress.


State level -

...Christine Jones, a former GoDaddy exec, has entered the contest for the Republican nomination for governor.  She should bring a lot of money into the race, but until she shows otherwise, she's presumed to be a wealthy dilettante looking to buy an elected office.

She joins the following in the race for the R nomination -

Hugh Hallman, former mayor of Tempe

Andrew Thomas, disgraced and disbarred former Maricopa County Attorney

Ken Bennett, currently AZ Secretary of State

Doug Ducey, currently AZ Treasurer

Al Melvin, currently an AZ state senator

Others rumored to be interested, but nothing official yet:  Scott Smith, mayor of Mesa; Steve Pierce/Andy Tobin, senator/representative from LD1 (neither may go for it, and almost certainly both won't go for it, but one of them may go for it); Jan Brewer, the term-limited incumbent, who keeps making noises about challenging AZ's term limits law.

...Speaking of wealthy dilettantes looking to buy an elected office, news broke this week that Wil Cardon, a 2012 Republican candidate for US Senate, is going to enter the Republican primary for AZ Secretary of State.  The linked article states that Cardon filed his paperwork on Tuesday, but nothing is on the AZSOS' website as yet.

In 2012, Cardon spent millions of his family's money to challenge Jeff Flake, the eventual general election winner, coming in second place in the Republican primary.  Sounds good for a political newbie, until you realize that it wasn't exactly a "close" second -

Cardon joins the following in the race for the Republican nomination for SOS -

Steve Montenegro, currently a member of the AZ House

Justin Pierce, currently a member of the AZ House

Michele Reagan, currently a member of the AZ Senate


...Effie Carlson, a Scottsdale businesswoman, has entered the race for one of the House seats from LD23.  Don't know much about her, but since I live in Scottsdale (though not in the LD23 part), I expect to hear more in the coming months.

...Trey Terry, a former campaign operative for the likes of Mitt Romney, Jesse Kelly, and Paul Babeu, has entered the race for an AZ House seat from LD8 (Pinal County).


Maricopa County level -

Nothing new to report as of this writing.  There will be news, eventually.  A number of JP and constable seats are up for election in 2014, as is a two-year term for County Assessor (the previous assessor was appointed to fill a JP vacancy).  In addition, there are occasional rumors that the current County Attorney, Bill Montgomery, may throw his hat in the ring for the R nod for Attorney General.  If he does so, that will put a higher-profile county race on the ballot.


Local level -

...In Tempe, one Matthew Papke has filed for a 2014 run for City Council.  Gun nut/tea party type.

Nothing new to report for Scottsdale or Mesa municipal elections.

Is 2014 going to be a rerun of 2010?

The GOP fear-mongered healthcare reform to a massive electoral tidal wave in 2010, sweeping their way to majorities in the US House of Representatives and state houses across the country.

That year, the GOP took advantage of the astroturf-generated tea party movement with, among other things, a series "town hall meetings" that were filled with anti-immigrant, anti-Democrats, anti-Obama, anti-healthcare reform, and anti-99% propaganda.

And since they've been in office, what little "work" that they've done has been based on the same propaganda (i.e. - the US House's 40th  dog and pony show vote to "repeal" Obamacare is on tap for next week).

It's not just the House Republicans either - the Republicans in the US Senate have filibustered nearly everything to come before them, even normally non-controversial executive branch appointments.

At the state level, they've been enacting voter suppression laws, anti-choice laws, tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, anti-worker measures, and more, and always against the will of the people of their states.

In short, they've high-handedly postured for the last 2-plus years while doing nothing of substance that's beneficial to the whole country, like looking for ways to shore up the fragile economic recovery (actually, they've done just the opposite of *helping* the economy, but that's a topic for a wonkier post).

Now, the GOPers involved may not be honorable public servants, but neither have they allowed their arrogance to blind them to the reality that most Americans, and most voters, blame them for the decline in the US economy, society's infrastructure (both physical and social) and US influence abroad.

They fully understand that the elections of 2014 could be disastrous for them, in spite of the political truism that historically, the party that doesn't control the White House makes gains in the midterm elections during a president's second term (not absolutely accurate, but still a widely accepted truism).

They know that they can't campaign on their "accomplishments", because they don't have any, or what they consider to be "accomplishments" are things that actually work against the interests of their constituents.

Now, the GOP hasn't had an original idea in generations, so they didn't feel the need to look deep in their repertoire for a plan for forestalling defeat next year.

In other words, they're going to try to tea party likes it's 2010 all over again.

From Crooks & Liars, written by karoli -

July is winding down and our do-nothing House is close to having a month to do nothing but stir up general rage and anger. With that goal in mind, House Republicans have all received their August marching orders and field guides for activities inside their districts. I've put the entire document here below the fold, but here are some of the highlights:
Media Events

• Invite representatives of 501c3 and c4 groups to speak about how they "could have been targeted by the IRS and explain how house Republicans are conducting oversight hearings to hold the Administration accountable." Members are further instructed to issue media advisories in advance and be sure to hold a press conference afterwards.
• Have 'conversations' with health care providers, presumably to gin up some more hate for the Affordable Care Act.
• Host a local jobs fair. Oh, the irony.
• Target millennials with a health care forum designed to inform them of how screwed they are after Obamacare kicks in
• Take a Red Tape Tour in connection with the local Chamber of Commerce so businesses can complain about excessive regulations.

Town Hall Meetings

• Emergency Health Care - Carve out an hour to focus solely on health care, "addressing the myriad effects of ObamaCare on the people in your district."
• Stopping Government Abuse - This is the "kill the IRS" themed meeting, with a dash of "kill all regulations" tossed in.

The original document is here.

   Fighting Washington for All Americans by The Washington Post

I don't really expect the GOP scheme to work, buuuuuut...

As in 2010, a number of Democratic members of the US House of Representatives from competitive areas seem to think that appearing to be "Republican-lite" will win over some Republican voters.

In recent weeks, they've sided with the House Republicans and (among other things) -

Voted to allow funding for continued NSA spying on Americans (WaPo story)

Voted to support a measure to take the authority to regulate coal ash created by power plants away from the EPA and give it to the more easily cowed states (The Hill story)

Voted to delay full implementation of Obamacare (HuffPo story)

Voted to loosen oversight of the financial industry by giving them a loophole related to overseas operations (Mother Jones story)

Voted to hamstring the SEC (The Hill story)


In 2010, many of the Democrats in competitive districts did the same thing, some even becoming "Blue Dog Democrats (conservative pseudo-Republicans) in a mostly futile attempt to stave off defeat.

OK, "mostly futile" is my tactful way of saying that they got their asses kicked.

Three of the Democratic members of Arizona's delegation - Ann Kirkpatrick, Kyrsten Sinema, and Ron Barber - are members of the group that are going the "Republican-lite" route.

They should all know better - Kirkpatrick was one of the conservaDems ousted in 2010, Barber worked for former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, who was nearly ousted, and Sinema is simply smart as hell.

But they don't seem to, because they all seem to be pursuing the strategy that failed so miserably in 2010.

And that may be the thing that does the most to guarantee R success in 2014 - as bad as the Republicans have been for the country, too many Democrats will be governing and running in such a way as to give the voters two bad choices on next year's ballot.

Republican State Rep. Kwasman running for Congress

Making official something that had been an open secret for months, State Representative Adam Kwasman announced that he is exploring a run for the CD1 seat in Congress, currently held by Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick.

From Roll Call, written by Abby Livington -

Republican state Rep. Adam Kwasman announced today an exploratory committee to challenge Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Ariz., a top target for the House GOP in 2014, according to a press release from his new campaign.


Kwasman is the first Republican enter the 1st District race this cycle, but it is likely other GOP candidates will chase the seat as well. He was also the subject of a recent Roll Call story on potential Republican challengers for Kirkpatrick.

His exploratory website is here.

As the article mentioned, Kwasman may be the first GOPer in the CD1 race, but he won't be the last.  In fact, 2014 should be an outright brawl on the GOP side of the ballot, with CD1 being at the top of the card.

Kirkpatrick is viewed as the most vulnerable D, with a competitive and heavily rural district.  As such, a laundry list of Rs are looking at that race; one of those rumored to be looking is AZSOS Ken Bennett.  He's also rumored to be looking at a run for governor.  Since there will be an R primary for both offices, he may just go for the one with the one he thinks is the most winnable.

Assuming that both Bennett and Kwasman go for CD1, I expect at least two more "name" candidates to at least strongly consider jumping into the CD1 race, with "name" meaning "current or recent officeholder", two lesser-known but viable candidates, and two "tilting at windmills" candidates.

Kwasman may have one serious issue working against his candidacy - based on the way he has conducted himself in office and the way his (exploratory) campaign has started, he is running as a generic knee-jerk Republican.  He could be running in any other district in the state, or even the country.  Somebody with strong ties to the rural part of the district might be able to easily turn him aside.

Ties like the ones possessed by Kirkpatrick.

The next target on the R hit parade will probably be the CD4 seat currently held by Republican Paul Gosar.  AZ House Speaker Andy Tobin, term-limited out of the AZ House, is said to be mulling this one.  Gosar is still seen as a carpetbagger in the district, vulnerable to a challenger with a strong base of support in the district.

Based on current voter registration numbers, CD4 will almost certainly remain in the hands of the Republican party.  The only real question is which R will occupy the office.

After that are seats held by Democrats in two competitive districts.

CD9 is currently held by Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema, who already has three announced R challengers, two of whom also ran in 2012.  Vernon Parker and Wendy Rogers have signed on for a return engagement.  Newbie Andrew Walter, whose claim to fame thus far is that he was a QB for the ASU football team a few years back, is also in the race.  The seat is attainable for the Rs, but Sinema was and is a strong candidate.  It will take a combination of factors to defeat her.  They will need a mix of Sinema messing up, the R candidate (whoever that may end up being) running a near-perfect campaign, and a national environment that is conducive to R victories.  In short, a wave.  Not necessarily one of 2010 proportions, but a solid one.

And given that, historically, the mid-term elections of a two-term president's second term usually see Congressional gains by the party that isn't the president's, this third factor seems more likely than not to come to pass.

Given Sinema's strength as a candidate, the race probably won't see a "big name" R, but one or two (or three or four) lower-profile Rs with some game who are willing to take a gamble.  The bigger name Rs will look for a surer thing.

After that one comes a district that, while competitive enough that the Rs won't give it a free pass, is going to take pretty near everything going right for the Rs for them to have a serious chance at taking the seat. 

Currently held by Congressman Ron Barber (D), CD2 shows a slight R edge in voter registration numbers, making it look like it is ripe for a takeover.  However, Barber is a strong candidate in an area where the Democrats are very energetic and involved, leading to high D turnout at the polls.

So far, just Martha McSally, the 2012 R nominee and loser in the general election, has signed on for the race.  It's likely that other Rs will get in CD2 race, but each of them will probably have some serious baggage weighing down their candidacies.


One interesting note: with Kwasman's announcement, it becomes official that though all will be running for office, none of the current LD11 legislators will be running for reelection to their current offices next year, and term limits aren't involved.

State Rep. Adam Kwasman - going for Congress.
State Rep. Steve Smith - going for the state senate.
State Sen. Al Melvin - going for governor. 

Doesn't mean much - LD11 is still a tough nut for Democratic candidates to crack (doable, but very tough), but it's still interesting.

In a political geek sort of way.  :)

Committees update

Note: when I write "nothing significant" (or a reasonable facsimile thereof), it's not an insult to the candidate committees that have formed at a particular level.  For the purposes of this post, "significant" mostly means "a candidate that we've heard of before"

Committees of note formed recently...

Federal level -

Martha McSally (R) declared her candidacy for the CD2 seat currently held by Ron Barber.

State level -

No significant new candidate committees that I could find, but the end of the legislative session was marked by a flurry of activity on the referendum front -

- Label GMOs Arizona, 201400138, supporting a initiative petition drive regarding the labeling of genetically modified foods.

- Representative Initiatives, 201400149, supporting an as-yet unidentified initiative or referendum petition drive.

- United Republican Alliance of Principled Conservatives, 201400140, seeking to overturn the lege's recent restoration of Medicaid eligibility levels via a referral to the ballot.

- Arizonans for Sensible Health Care, 201400167, opposing the proposed ballot measure above.  Fronted by the CEO of the Arizona Hospital and Healthcare Association.

- We The People AZ Against Common Core, 201400168, seeking to refer to the ballot a part of the state's budget that increased the bonding limit for school districts.  Fronted by Wes Harris, one of the state's more infamous tea party types.

- Equal Marriage Arizona, 201400163, supporting an initiative petition drive for a measure that would recognize same sex marriages.  Fronted by LGBT Republicans.

- Arizona Taxpayers Protection Committee, 201400171, supporting an as-yet unidentified ballot measure.  At least, that's how the AZSOS has them categorized on the SOS' website.  However, a perusal of the group's website shows that their goal is to support primary challengers to Republicans who supported Medicaid restoration.  Fronted by Tom Husband, former chair of the MCGOP and Shane Wikfors, a long-time GOP operative and blogger.

- Protect Your Right To Vote Committee, 201400177, seeking to refer to the ballot and overturn HB2305, the anti-voter measure passed by the Republicans in the waning moments of this year's session of the legislature.  Fronted by Julie Erfle.

- Safer Arizona, 201400153, supporting an initiative petition drive for a potential measure legalizing marijuana.  Fronted by Dennis Bohlke, a computer programmer who has run afoul of narcotics-related laws in the past.

Steve at Arizona Eagletarian has coverage of the ballot questions committees here.


Maricopa County level -

Nothing significant yet.


Municipal level (Scottsdale, Tempe, Mesa) -

Nothing in Tempe or Mesa as yet.  There are a couple of filings of interest in Scottsdale, however.

- Michael Auerbach, operator of a personal chef for hire business, member of Scottsdale's Neighborhood Advisory Commission, and a Republican PC in LD23 (north Scottsdale), filed for a run for City Council.

- John Little, a former Scottsdale City Manager, has filed for a run for City Council.

Little was city manager of Scottsdale until he was fired, allegedly because of "conflicts" with the Council.  The interesting part of that firing was the fact that, seemingly, the only people who had a conflict with Little were the four members of the City Council who voted to fire him.  I haven't followed Little's career since the firing, but if he still has the same sort of community support, the race will be tough.

For the other candidates.

John Washington of Scottsdale Trails offers his take on Little's candidacy here.

Republican State Sen. Rich Crandall taking job in Wyoming

From KPHO.com (Phoenix Channel 5), written by Phil Benson -

An Arizona state senator has been chosen to run the Wyoming Education Department.

Wyoming Gov. Matt Mead late Wednesday afternoon announced his choice of Richard Crandall, of Mesa, who co-owns two nutritional service companies.

 This isn't exactly breaking news - it's been common knowledge for months that Crandall was leaving to "pursue other opportunities".

In my previous post covering this topic, I predicted that Crandall would catch on with a (potential) Jeb Bush presidential campaign.  This would seem to show that prediction to be incorrect, however, the job in Wyoming may be a temp job.

From the KPHO article -

Mead and the Legislature enacted a new law this past winter removing the statewide elected superintendent of public instruction as head of the Education Department. Instead, the department will be administered by a director appointed by the governor.

The change occurred in the middle of Superintendent Cindy Hill's four-year term. Hill is challenging the constitutionality of the change.

The press release from Wyoming's governor is here.

So far as I can tell, Crandall has yet to submit his resignation from the state senate.  Once he does, however, the fun will start.

Former state senator Russell Pearce, the subject of a historic recall election in 2011 appeared on KTVK's Politics Unplugged this past weekend.  When asked about future political aspirations, he responded coyly and ambiguously, neither confirming nor refuting plans to run for office next year.  However, there have been rumors that he is looking at a return to the senate, either by challenging incumbent LD25 senator Bob Worsley or by moving a little east into Crandall's current district, LD16.

If Pearce does make that move, it will be an exercise in irony.

Crandall made the same move after the redistricting process placed him in the same district (LD25) as Pearce, a longtime political adversary (just because they're Rs doesn't mean they like each other).  Crandall chose to move into LD16 to avoid a primary battle with Pearce.  In LD16, Crandall defeated Pearce ally John Fillmore, avoiding Pearce but still deepening the bad blood between the two camps.

However it works out in LD16, it probably won't be as entertaining as what happened at the Texas lege on Tuesday, but it will still be fun to watch in a "get your popcorn and put up your feet" kind of way.

Russell Pearce: Putting another nail in the coffin of his political career

From AZFamily.com (aka - Channel 3 in Phoenix), written by Dennis Welch -

Days after one of the men who led a national border vigilante movement was arrested on accusations of child molestation, former Senate President Russell Pearce had this to say about Chris Simcox: “good people do stupid things sometimes.”

{snip}

Pearce was speaking after appearing on the station’s weekly public affairs show, Politics Unplugged, which airs at 5:30 Sunday.

The video -



Pearce is right about one thing - good people do stupid things occasionally.

However, bad people do evil things, and molesting children qualifies as "evil", not "stupid".

If Pearce ever runs for an elected office again, expect this to seriously haunt him.

2014 Updates...

...It's early, but Arizona Attorney General Tom Horne has already given up on the idea of running on his record.  Being the subject of a multistate investigation for campaign finance violations and committing an FBI-witnessed hit-and-run accident while leaving his girl friend's home during the work day will do that.

From the Arizona Republic, written by Yvonne Wingett Sanchez -

Republican Arizona Attorney General Tom Horne’s campaign is attacking the media and President Barack Obama as it tries to raise money for Horne’s re-election.

In an e-mail to supporters late last week, Horne accused the “liberal media” of comparing him to murderer Jodi Arias, calling it “a new low and a disgusting attack” that cannot be allowed to stand.

Horne is upset that the media (and others) observed the interesting timing of his guilty plea on charges relating to the hit-and-run - it was crammed through on short notice so that it would be lost in the media frenzy that exploded when the Jodi Arias verdict was announced.

Prediction:  Horne will face a challenger in the Republican primary.  Even the Rs know that someone with a record like his will be toast in a general election, especially against a strong candidate like Democrat Felecia Rotellini.


...It's early, but State Rep. Steve Montenegro has announced the list of consultants that he has hired for his "exploration" of a run at AZ Secretary of State.

He is spinning the team of big-name (in R circles) players as a way of proving his (potential...yeah right) candidacy is a serious one.

I think that it's more likely that his campaign will be hitting up donors for as many max bribes campaign contributions as possible - the folks Montenegro has hired don't come cheap.  And no matter how their candidates do at the ballot box, they do well personally.


...It's still early, but a highly qualified candidate for State Superintendent of Public Instruction has formed an exploratory committee.

From the Tucson Weekly, written by Mari Herreras - 

Earlier today, David Garcia announced on Facebook that he's launched an exploratory committee for State Superintendent of Public Instruction. And as crazy as it seems in Arizona, the ASU associate professor is kinda qualified for the job.

With that, let's wish Garcia luck and acknowledge he'll probably lose, but hey, welcome to the fray. From his Facebook candidate page:

Phoenix, Ariz. — June 3, 2013 — Dr. David Garcia, an Associate Professor at Arizona State University, announced the formation of an exploratory committee, Garcia 2014, for Arizona’s Superintendent of Public Instruction.

A nationally recognized expert in education policy and research, Dr. Garcia served as the state Associate Superintendent of Public Instruction for Standards and Accountability, Director of Research and Policy for the Arizona Department of Education, research analyst for the Arizona State Senate Education Committee, and peer consultant for the U.S. Department of Education. He is the current director of the Arizona Education Policy Initiative.

{snip}

Born and raised in Mesa, Arizona, Garcia received his B.A. from ASU and a Masters of Arts and Ph.D. in Education Policy, Research and Institutional Studies from the University of Chicago. He proudly served in the U.S. Army Infantry where he trained as a Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Warfare Specialist. He and his wife Lori Higuera, a Director at Fennemore Craig, P.C., have two young daughters that attend an Arizona public school.

Sounds incredibly qualified, but given that the two most recent superintendents of public instruction, Tom Horne and John Huppenthal, were (and are) incredibly unqualified for the job, Garcia has an uphill fight ahead of him.

He joins Sharon Thomas in the Democratic field of candidates for the state's top education post.

David Safier, BfA's resident education wonk, offers his insights into Garcia here.

Short attention span musing

...Congressman Darrell Issa and the Republicans have been conducting a major witch hunt into the attack on a US diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya on September 11, 2012.

If I thought that they were legitimately interested in preventing the unnecessary loss of American lives or addressing the safety of American diplomatic personnel, I could actually support the "inquiry".

However, given the huge number of attacks on US embassies during the Bush Administration that took place with little more than a peep from the Rs, the thousands of Americans (and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and Afghanis) who have died in Halliburton's Wars for Enhanced Profits with nothing more than drumbeats for higher body counts from the Rs, and the 14 dead and 200 or so injured when a Texas fertilizer plant exploded after decades of neglect of safety measures without any interest in finding the root cause of the disaster and prevent future disasters expressed by the Rs, well, it's obvious that saving lives or preserving safety isn't the primary goal of Issa and the rest.

Smearing the current administration and presumed 2016 Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton is.

Wonder if the witch hunt would be so...so...so...*enthusiastic*...if instead of the American taxpayer footing the bill, the actual beneficiary, the Republican National Committee had to pay for it?


...On this week's edition of Sunday Square Off on Phoenix channel 12, political consultant Chip Scutari predicted that current AZSOS Ken Bennett, who is "exploring" a run for governor next year, will instead challenge fellow Republican Paul Gosar for the CD4 seat and current AZ House speaker Andy Tobin (R-Paulden) will challenge Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick in CD1.

Couldn't find any open committees yet, but each prediction, if accurate, makes a bit of sense.

Bennett faces a Republican primary regardless of the office he goes after.  The race for governor is a statewide race and his power base is in Yavapai County; 75% of the state's population is in Maricopa and Pima counties.  The CD4 race is a "district" race where not being from Maricopa or Pima county might actually help him win against Gosar, who is still viewed as a bit of a carpetbagger in the district.

Tobin is termed-out of the House and has to run for something else.  There were a few whispers that he was looking at a run for governor, like Bennett above.  However, like Bennett above, while he has a strong base of support in Yavapai County, that may not be a strong or broad enough foundation for a statewide run.  On the other hand, that base could set him up well for a run at a northern AZ Congressional district.

...The biggest story of the last week was news breaking out of an IRS office in Cincinnati that certain groups may have been targeted for extra scrutiny if the name of the group included words like "tea party" or "patriot".  Unsurprisingly, Republicans are outraged at the idea that conservative groups are subject to scrutiny because they are politically conservative. 

However, lost in their histrionics is the outrage of liberals, from the President down to the humblest of bloggers.  We all have seen liberal groups targeted for "special" treatment, from J. Edgar Hoover "investigating" everybody who was to the political left of Adolph Hitler to the recent partisan jihad against ACORN.  We know how abhorrently un-American and how damaging such ideologically-motivated witch hunts are.

If it turns out that there was some deliberate malfeasance, a deliberate violation of the American ideal of freedom of expression here, the IRS employees involved and everyone in their chain of command who knew of their misdeeds should lose their jobs.  At a minimum.

...Another story, perhaps one that may more genuinely represent a serious violation of an American ideal, this one of the freedom and independence of the press, broke Monday.

From the Associated Press, written by Mark Sherman - 

The Justice Department secretly obtained two months of telephone records of reporters and editors for the Associated Press in what the news cooperative's top executive called a "massive and unprecedented intrusion" into how news organizations gather the news.

The records obtained by the Justice Department listed incoming and outgoing calls, and the duration of each call, for the work and personal phone numbers of individual reporters, general AP office numbers in New York, Washington and Hartford, Conn., and the main number for AP reporters in the House of Representatives press gallery, according to attorneys for the AP.

In all, the government seized those records for more than 20 separate telephone lines assigned to AP and its journalists in April and May of 2012. The exact number of journalists who used the phone lines during that period is unknown but more than 100 journalists work in the offices whose phone records were targeted on a wide array of stories about government and other matters.

 

The AP letter protesting the Department of Justice's unprecedently broad intrusion is here.

Ummm...I don't know what to say about this that hasn't already been said, and far more eloquently than I'm able to, but let me advise any member of the DOJ who was a party to this to take a refresher course on the American Constitution and civil rights.

MIT offers one here.

Harvard Law School offers a number of related lectures here.

There are others out there if you think that MIT and Harvard aren't good enough.

 

 

Ummm2...OK, so it isn't going to be eloquent, but let me say this: the people at DOJ who were a part of this should join the IRS employees above in the unemployment line.  At a minimum.

Coming and going: 2014 candidates

It's still very early, but there has been some recent movements on the 2014 candidate front...

...In AZCD9, Wendy Rogers (R), a twice-failed candidate (2010 - AZ state senate; 2012 - US Congress), has announced her intention to run for the Republican nomination for the CD9 seat in 2014.

- Also in AZCD9, Martin Sepulveda (R), another also-ran in 2012, has filed a statement of candidacy with the FEC.  More from Roll Call on Sepulveda

- As has 2012 R nominee in CD9. Vernon Parker.

- Former CD3 Congressman Ben Quayle is also a rumored candidate for CD9, though the Roll Call story linked above does say his candidacy has grown less likely.  Personally, I hope he goes for it - a Sinema/Quayle race would be oodles of fun to write about.

...For AZ-Gov, Richard Carmona (D), the 2012 Democratic nominee for US Senate and rumored 2014 candidate for governor, dispelled those rumors this week, publically announcing that he will not seek the office.

...For AZ Mine Inspector, Manny Cruz (D), the 2010 Democratic nominee for that office, has opened an exploratory committee for a 2014 run at the same office.


More to come...

Max Wilson resigning from the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors

From the Arizona Republic, written by Michelle Ye Hee Lee -

 

Longtime Maricopa County Supervisor Max Wilson announced Friday he will retire, effective March 11, citing health reasons.

 

The 70-year-old Litchfield Park Republican was hospitalized with the flu in January. This week, his doctors advised him to take it easy. He also has had previous health concerns, and has gone through two open-heart surgeries in the past.

Wilson won reelection last year, so his office normally wouldn't be on the ballot again until 2016.

However, his resignation means that the rest of the BOS will appoint another Republican from Wilson's NW Maricopa County district to fill the office until the 2014 election, when somebody will be elected to serve out the remaining two years in the term.

If he (or she) chooses to run for election to the position, the appointee, whoever it may be, will have a leg up in the 2014 election.  They'll be running as an incumbent, an unelected one to be sure, but better to be an unelected incumbent than none at all (see: Jan Brewer in 2010).

Being the Northwest Valley, and Republicans, I've got no insight into how this is going to shake out, but expect to see a bit of a "domino effect".

Any person who is appointed to the office is likely to be a "mover and shaker" on the West Valley political scene, and if not already an elected official, someone who is on the short list of those considered to be ready to move into office.  Their appointment will, in turn, create an opening for someone else to move into the political "on deck circle" (nice baseball reference for a political change happening during spring training, doncha' think? :) ).

Wilson has faced two primary opponents during his tenure, easily defeating both. 

In 2012, former state legislator and current member of the governing board of the Central Arizona Project, Jean McGrath ran against him, getting trounced.  She may have some supporters among SD4's Republicans, but based on the primary results, there aren't many of them.

In 2004, one George L. Bradbury IV served himself up as the political equivalent of cannon fodder.  Hadn't heard of him before doing some research for this post, so he seems to done with his (apparently short-lived) political career, but a Google search turned up some allegations of sketchy land deals and being on the defendant side of some civil actions in court.

Stuff that isn't supposed to be done by those interesting in being on the MCBOS...at least until they are part of the MCBOS.

Psssst. Didja hear the latest rumor?

Just a compilation of some recent political rumors here in AZ...

...The Phoenix Business Journal (and other sources) has been reporting that Arizona Congressman Ed Pastor (D-AZ7) is under consideration for a spot in the President's cabinet as Secretary of Transportation.

From the article, written by Mike Sunnucks -

 

Longtime Phoenix congressman Ed Pastor’s name has popped up as a possible successor to the departing U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood.

 

That could open up Pastor’s Democratic-leaning and Hispanic-majority district, and there will be no shortage of possible contenders from within his party.

Some of the names of contenders listed in the article:  Mary Rose Wilcox, a member of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors; Laura Pastor, the Congressman's daughter and 2007 candidate for Phoenix City Council; and Phil Gordon, former mayor of Phoenix.  In addition, pretty much every legislator with ties to Central or South Phoenix, or southwestern Maricopa County, is also mentioned.

I don't know if Pastor has a serious chance at the cabinet seat, but if it happens, look for a rugged Democratic primary in the race to fill the seat for the remainder of his term.  Pastor's district is heavily Democratic (the district has slightly less than three times as many Ds as it does Rs), and the winner of the special election will get the inside lane on what should be a safe seat for them for years, maybe decades.

This isn't the first time in recent years Pastor has been the subject of rumors of a possible presidential appointment - at the beginning of Barack Obama's first term in the White House, Pastor was talked about as a dark horse candidate for the ambassador's post in Mexico.  That one didn't happen, but even then, it didn't seem likely.  This one...?


...Terry Goddard, former Arizona Attorney General and three-time candidate for governor (and a former mayor of Phoenix), is mulling a run at another term as AG.

From Politics Plugged In, written by Dennis Welch

Old pols never die and many times they never fade away, either.

 

Take former Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard for example. The three time gubernatorial loser told 3TV this week that he might want his old job back.

 

“I’ve been seriously thinking about it because I don’t like seeing what’s happening to the office,” Goddard said over the telephone. “Morale has fallen and a lot of people are leaving.”

...Jim Lane, Mayor of Scottsdale, is making noises, and moves, like someone who is strongly considering a 2014 run at a statewide office.  John Washington, in a post on Scottsdale Trails, dropped a hint that Lane may be looking at a run at either Arizona Secretary of State or even Governor.  According to the post, Jason Rose, one of the premier Republican PR flacks in AZ and a Lane "advisor", has publicly stated that Lane isn't considering a run for AZ Treasurer.

However, that denial may fall into the category of "whistling past resign-to-run" - as part of Scottsdale's State of the City activities this past week, at one event, Lane was introduced by Doug Ducey, who is none other than the current AZ Treasurer.  And Ducey himself is the subject of rumors regarding a possible 2014 run for Governor.

There is also talk that the "Lane as a candidate for AZSOS" talk was less a serious consideration than a threat to gain the support of State Senator Michele Reagan (R-LD23), a real candidate for SOS.  Apparently, while Reagan and Lane are both members of the chamber of commerce wing of the AZGOP, and both are from Scottsdale, they aren't exactly best friends.

Lastly, while Lane has strong ties to the business community, he is taking steps to shore up his support among social conservatives.

Witness this picture of the invitation to an official event with Jim Lane, Mayor -

While the invite touts the event as "Breakfast With The Mayor", has the city's logo on it, and is going to take place in a city-owned facility (Granite Reef Senior Center), it has a rather curious "copyright" statement - it was copyrighted by the Paradise Valley Community Church.

Hmmm...

Obviously, nothing is definite yet (other than that Lane and Rose need a civics class refresher, focusing on the separation of church and state), but if a Lane statewide candidacy comes to pass, political dominos will fall in Scottsdale in much the same way that an elevation of Ed Pastor to the president's cabinet would set off a political reshuffling in south and west Phoenix.  Virginia Korte and Bob Littlefield, current members of the Scottsdale City Council, would almost certainly test the waters.  That would open up the race for one of the state representative spots in north Scottsdale, a position that Littlefield is "exploring", and so on...

...More to come as the 2014 election cycle reaches full speed...

It's early, but candidates for 2014 are already starting to line up

...In significant news, in Scottsdale, anyway, Bob Littlefield, member of the Scottsdale City Council, formed an exploratory committee for a run at a seat in the Arizona House of Representatives.

He's term-limited on the City Council, so he will not be able to run for reelection to the Council in 2014.  However, his interest in a legislative seat doesn't directly set up a primary challenge against one or both House incumbents in his district, LD23.

The current state senator there, Michele Reagan, is "exploring" a run at the AZ Secretary of State's office next year, opening that seat.

One of the current state representatives, John Kavanagh, is "exploring" a run for the senate seat currently held by Reagan, opening his seat (presumably, the other LD23 House incumbent, Michelle Ugenti, is going to run for reelection to her seat).

Now, Littlefield is "exploring" a legislative run of his own.

"Exploring" is in "quotes" because in most cases, it is a facade, a false front of sorts.  The exploring label is meant to shield the users from the state's "resign to run" law.  That law requires that current officeholders who aren't in the last year of their terms to resign from their office once they begin to run for another office.  Most of the time, that law is ignored with the use of none-too-subtle subterfuges like the "exploratory committee", and a lot of winks and nods.

Littlefield is thoroughly conservative but has earned a reputation as a straight shooter (meaning that he's direct and to the point).  However, he's not a "bay at the moon" type (actually, he can be a little impatient with that type), so there will be a primary here from one or more other candidates.  

Obviously it's early and things could change, but he is probably the biggest "name" who can be expected to jump into that race.  Joe Arpaio lives in the district, but he seems unlikely to resign as Maricopa County Sheriff to take a chance on a run at a seat in the lege.  Jus' sayin'...

The steepest learning curve for him will be learning the differences between a municipal campaign and a legislative campaign.  Municipal campaigns tend to be focused on practical issues, while legislative campaigns, especially is safe Republican districts, tend to be focused on ideological issues.

...Speaking of "bay at the moon" types, Rep. Carl Seel (R-Birtherland) has opened an exploratory committee for a 2014 run at a seat on the Arizona Corporation Commission.  If elected, he'll fit in well with the bunch that's on the ACC now in that he'll place ideological whims over real world facts.

...One of the Republican targets of tea party ire in late 2010/early 2011 was Sophia Johnson.  She was a newly-elected officer of the LD20 Republican Party who was caught up in the mess created when tea party elements of that district objected to the fact that their district party elected an African-American chair, Anthony Miller.  Miller and Johnson (and I believe, others) ended up resigning their positions because of the toxic, even threatening, atmosphere and the situation ended up in court. 

Now Johnson is in Avondale, and has opened a committee for a run at the AZ House in the new LD19.

I met her while covering that mess, and she was one of the nicest people that I have met while writing this blog.  Wrong on pretty much every political issue, but that's part of politics.  If you can't handle civil disagreement, stay away.  Disagreement is no excuse for incivility.

I don't wish her victory in the race (hey, I *am* a Democrat :) ), but I am glad that she wasn't intimidated and scared off of political activism by the ugliness of the LD20 situation in 2010/2011. 

One thing that is necessary for our democracy to continue to work (or if you are a cynic like me, to begin to work again) is for people with spines to step up and become, and remain, involved, regardless of their political stripe.

Today, we can count Johnson as one of the ones who have stepped up.

Hugh Hallman, former mayor of Tempe, "pondering" a 2014 run for governor

From the Phoenix Business Journal, written by Mike Sunnucks -

Former Tempe mayor Hugh Hallman is looking at running for Arizona governor in 2014.

 

The Republican said on his website today he is pondering a run.

 

“Over the next few months, I will be traveling the state of Arizona to speak with and listen to people from all walks of life about what’s really important to them in their state government, and how we can address our priorities successfully,” Hallman said. “At that time, I will make a final decision about pursuing elected office. I have one particular elected office very clearly in mind — the office of governor of Arizona.”

If he runs and gains the R nomination next year, he could suffer the embarrassment of losing Tempe, his hometown, in the general election.  As mayor of Tempe, he kept a lid on the anti-constituent craziness that permeates internal Republican politics these days, but to get through the Republican primary, he'll need to cut loose with the nihilist rhetoric of the Rs' social and fiscal agendas.

That will cost him votes in Tempe. 

Lots of votes.

Sunnucks' piece went on to list a few other rumored candidates -

On the Democratic side:  Dr. Richard Carmona, former US Surgeon General and 2012 Democratic nominee for US Senate; Fred Duval, businessman, author, and former President of the Arizona Board of Regents; and Greg Stanton, mayor of Phoenix.

On the Republican side:  State Treasurer Doug Ducey and AZ Secretary of State Ken Bennett.


Possible additions/subtractions to that list:

Greg Stanton has stated that he is not running for governor in 2014 (that doesn't mean he won't change his mind at some point, but 2014 really might be too early for him to go for the governor's job.)

State Representative Chad Campbell, the Democratic leader in the AZ House, is also eyeing a run.  Like the others mentioned here, he may end up not running for governor (right now, they're all "pondering"), but he is probably more likely to run than Carmona is, at this point.

Felecia Rotellini, the impressive Democratic nominee for AZ Attorney General in 2010, is being talked up as a potential candidate.  I think that she is more likely to mount another run at AG, but it's still early - anything could happen.

Scott Smith, the Republican mayor of Mesa.  Has had success during his administration (Mesa is no longer the political, social, economic, intellectual, and cultural laughingstock of Arizona) and is young enough (mid to late 50s) that he could wait until 2018.  On the other hand, the wheels could fall off in Mesa at any time (or, more likely, the Arizona legislature could slash Mesa's tires at any time), so he may be best served by running in 2014.

Steve Pierce, former president of the AZ state senate (he won reelection to the Senate, but lost the R caucus vote for a return to the senate presidency) and rancher in Yavapai County, is rumored to be eyeing the race, but a candidate who isn't from Maricopa or Pima counties has an uphill path.  Add in the fact that while former legislators *have* made it to the 9th Floor (Jan Brewer, Jane Hull), they didn't get there directly, going through other offices first, and he may be least likely to run of anyone mentioned in this post.

Gary Pierce (no relation to Steve), member and former chair of the Arizona Corporation Commission, is also rumored to be interested in the governor's office.  Those rumors received a boost when fellow R Bob Stump was elected as chair of the ACC, presumably to allow Gary Pierce the time to explore a run.


In other 2014 news, maybe we should rename the office of the Arizona Attorney General as the office of Arizona Eternal Optimist:

Tom Horne has formed a reelection committee.

Good God, this is going to be fun.  :)