Short Attention Span Musing

...Just a few things to think about on this, Labor Day 2012...

...Thank you unions for all the hard work, sweat, and sacrifice needed to get things like bans on child labor, overtime, sick time, vacations, holidays, safe working conditions, and more made a standard part of American culture.

While I've summed up their contributions in a single sentence, that's because there just aren't enough words in the English language to pay proper homage to those that truly deserve the title of "hero".


...During the Republican primary, Mitt Romney famously declared that he "likes firing people". 

Well, my guess is that he is going to particularly enjoy firing the political consultants who stage-managed last week's Republican convention in Tampa, whoever they might be.

Not because his acceptance speech hasn't been well-received, nor has he received the traditional post-convention "bounce" in public opinion polls.

Nope.  The managers of the show called the Republican National Convention (and yes, the Democratic Convention will be just as tightly-plotted and controlled) allowed their boss to be upstaged by an old guy talking to a chair.

On national television.

On the biggest night of his political life.

Probably not the sort of epic failure that any political operative wants on his/her resume.


...One of the big media memes today was the question "Are you better off today than you were four years ago?" 

First made famous more than three decades ago by Republican Ronald Reagan while he was campaigning for president against Democrat Jimmy Carter, the Republicans have started trotting it out against President Obama.  Mostly in hopes that the American people have forgotten who actually presided over the cratering of America's economy.  They haven't.

The Republicans reacted with glee, however, when MD Governor Martin O'Malley and a couple of other Obama surrogates fumbled when faced with that question.

Well, let me be unequivocal -

I, and we, are better off today than four years ago.

While the economy is far from perfect, four years ago, the reality was poor and the outlook worse, with no end (recovery) in sight.  An Arizona-focused report on the economy, courtesy the Joint Legislative Budget Committee (JLBC) is here. 

Today, the recovery is ongoing, even if stunted somewhat by Republican obstructionism in DC and elsewhere. 

The best chart in support of that is this one, courtesy The Maddow Blog -

...Maybe America's unemployed and underemployed should follow the lead of one of the Republican Party's standard-bearers and just "massage" their resumes. 

From the Seattle Post-Intelligencer -

Republican Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan has been described as dazzling, but several fact checkers say his words aren’t exactly that.

 

After his convention speech Thursday, a Fox News writer described it as deceiving and distracting. A Mitt Romney pollster, Neil Newhouse, told buzzfeed.com “we’re not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact checkers.”

 

{snip}

 

In a radio interview last week with conservative talk show host Hugh Hewitt, Ryan said his personal best time for 26.2 miles was “Under three [hours], high twos. I had a two hour and fifty-something.”

 

{snip]

 

Turns out Ryan didn’t come anywhere close to the 3-hour mark in his only marathon, according to Runner’s World, who looked into his bogus claim.

Based on Ryan's habitual lying and his continued veneration by the R establishment, I should be able to claim that I was there taking pictures when the late Neil Armstong walked on the moon in 1969, and be able to do so without repercussion, right?

I mean, I was all of three years old when Armstrong made his historic walk, but that just means that I was a prodigy, right?*

Armstrong on the moon.  Pic courtesy NASA.

* In case you couldn't tell, I did NOT take pictures on the moon, in 1969 or any other year.  Us writer-types have an arrow in our literary quiver called "hyperbole."  I used it here.

Not registered to vote yet? This will help...

The Obama campaign has release an application that will help people from all over the country register to vote.  It contains code that can be embedded in a web page, and has been added at the bottom of this blog's main page. 

It looks like this -




I can't speak for other states, but here in Arizona, the deadline to register to vote in the November 2012 election is October 9, 2012.

The Immigrant Problem

From Jerry Gettinger, friend and friend of the blog...and correspondent from next week's Democratic National Convention in Charlotte :) .  He wrote the following as a "My Turn" column and submitted it to the Arizona Republic, which published it in one of their print editions.  Since the Republic isn't publishing those columns online right now, he sent it here.

I have thought long and hard, and yet, I cannot understand what the problem some have with immigrants. Sure, I have heard all the standard reasons immigrants (legal and otherwise) are a problem. But when I go into the details of each reason, the reason doesn’t hold. I have been told that the crime rate is higher in areas where there are many immigrants (legal or otherwise), but the statistics say otherwise. Some elected officials cite the danger of immigrants and their propensity to commit illegal acts. However, the crime rate is no greater among immigrants than native born. I suspect that immigrants are used to scare residents gaining reelection. Incidentally, that tactic is as old as the United States. During the mass immigration of the late 1800’s there were leaflets warning citizens about people from Eastern Europe who were likely to “steal or commit other heinous crimes.” In many cases the flyers were referring to our relatives. How soon we forget!
 

There are those who insist that immigrants take jobs away from “law abiding citizens.” I may have looked in the wrong lot, but I haven’t seen many “law abiding” citizens looking for day jobs. Granted, there have been immigrants who have contributed ability and knowledge to a profession. Albert Einstein comes to mind. His knowledge helped populate NASA, which incidentally had several newly immigrants in its employee ranks. They became citizens with the stroke of the president’s pen. True. Look it up. Several of the scientists who developed the V2 rocket became citizens because of their knowledge. The fact that they were responsible for many deaths during WW2 was overlooked. (We sometimes come to conclusions based on the reality of need rather than morality). 
 

At this juncture I still cannot find out what the “immigrant problem” is. I know there are some who have offered conclusions, but to no avail. A man named Plumber Joe wants to build a high fence and shoot anyone who climbs it. That solution really doesn’t appeal to me. I would imagine the law (if implemented) would have to be evenly applied. I just don’t see shooting an older man with bushy white hair as he walked off a boat. Another interesting point I discovered. The immigrant problem changes identities as one changes location. It’s Asian In nature in parts of California, It was Irish and Italian on the East Coast, and there were times in New York City that everyone was against everyone. I suspect that some who profess to be “anti-immigrant” are actually racially motivated. The color of one’s skin seems to be important to many. Much to my surprise I discovered the second greatest number of “illegal immigrants” is the Irish. I don’t hear about Plumber Joe wanting to shoot them as they overstay their visit with their relatives.
 

Our country’s history is one of taking in people and patiently observing their assimilation. The Vietnamese boat people are a good example. Their children are grown and many are contributing. To see the number of “dream” youth who want the chance to be part of our country’s achievements makes me proud. I don’t hear of anyone lining up to be a citizen of Azerbaijan or the like. So Governor, instead of putting roadblocks in the path of the “Dream “people, how about helping them. The impressive contributions immigrants have made in every aspect of our country cry out for a positive resolution. Educate, employ and train is the solution. Sheriff Joe, Gov. and even Plumber Joe would benefit. Jonas Salk’s family immigrated.
 

Jerry Gettinger

Fun with campaign signs, part III

In the race for LD24, the Republican candidates are using these signs -

Ummm..."voteAuggie.com" isn't going to be listed as a candidate on any ballot.  Kind of defeats the purpose of paying for and putting up signs, which are all about pumping up name recognition. 

Now, if instead of pushing a candidate for office, it was about pushing the sale of mattresses or audio equipment out of the back of a truck, maybe the sign would be more effective.

Just sayin'...

The 2012 primaries: one major disappointment, a minor one, but otherwise, no real surprises

Tuesday's primaries are over, and the post-game analysis is in full swing.  As I wasn't able to live blog the results last night due to being otherwise occupied (at David Schapira's election night gathering in Tempe.  Hard to type when it is too dark to see the keyboard... :) ).

There were a couple of disappointments, but the only surprises Tuesday were in margins of victory (or loss, depending on your perspective), not in end results.

First, the disappointments -

- The biggest disappointment of the evening was, of course, David Schapira's second place finish, behind Kyrsten Sinema, in the Democratic primary in CD9.  He ran a positive and energetic campaign, earned the respect of many people who had never heard of him before this campaign (and reinforced the respect of the many people who *had* heard of him), and has a bright future despite this one loss, the first in his electoral career.

- A minor disappointment, but not a surprise, was the ability of LD23 R state reps John Kavanagh and Michelle Ugenti to fend off the challenge of Jennifer Petersen, a member of the Scottsdale school district governing board.  Petersen has a reputation as a pragmatic public servant, ergo, she had almost no chance of getting through a Republican primary.  Her north Scottsdale district used to send a highly-respected moderate R to the lege in the person of Carolyn Allen.  Now, the most "moderate" is State Sen. Michelle Reagan, and she has gone hard to the right, probably in preparation for an expected Congressional or statewide run.  The winner of the CD9 race in November, regardless of partisan affiliation, should probably start oppo research on her, at just about the time that the polls close.


Now, the (mostly pleasant) surprises -

- In the LD25 Senate R primary, disgraced former state senator Russell Pearce lost big to Mesa businessman Bob Worsley in his bid to return to the senate.  He has now lost a recall election by double digit percentage points, where he argued that if only Republicans could've voted in it (like, say, as in a primary), he would have won.  Well, he got the primary that he wanted, and...he lost by double digit percentage points.

- The other Pearce, Lester, lost his primary race for the 2nd District seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors to businessman Steve Chucri.  It was by an equally resounding margin (double digits, baby!).

- Pearce ally John Fillmore lost his bid for the LD16 state senate R nomination to Pearce foe Rich Crandall.

- In the one victory for the Pearce machine, Sylvia Allen, currently in the state senate, won her primary race for the Republican nomination for the 3rd District seat on the Navajo County Board of Supervisors.  She won with 80% of the vote, but her opponent ran as a $500 Exemption candidate, while she had the thousands of dollars that she transferred from the legislative campaign committee.

- In the R primary for US Senate, it wasn't surprising to see Jeff Flake defeat Wil Cardon, nor even to do so soundly.  However, Flake didn't just win soundly - he absolutely thumped Cardon, gaining more than three times as many votes as Cardon. 

Damn!

- In Pinal County, embattled Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu held off multiple challengers for the R nomination, which in itself isn't much of a surprise - he was expected to win a plurality of the votes because the other candidates would split the anti-Babeu vote.  What is surprising is that Babeu got 61% of the vote.  The other three candidates combined didn't equal his total.

- In the LD24 D primaries, Katie Hobbs (Senate) and Lela Alston and Chad Campbell (House) easily turned aside the challenges from Ken Cheuvront (Senate) and his mom Jean and Tom Nerini (House), respectively.  While Hobbs was clearly the better candidate in her race, Cheuvront had money and name recognition on his side, so Hobbs' margin of victory was a bit of a surprise (>20 percentage points).

- In the CD6 R primary, freshman Congressman David Schweikert defeated fellow freshman Ben Quayle.  As a Democrat, I viewed that race much like I viewed the 2000 World Series between the Yankees and the Mets as a Red Sox fan - I hoped both would lose.  It didn't work out that way, but at least one lost. :)

- In the City of Scottsdale's mayoral race, incumbent Jim Lane received the most votes, which was no surprise.  What was surprising was his margin of victory - he gained a majority of votes cast, easily avoiding a November runoff against one of his challengers - businessman/community activist John Washington or businessman Drew Bernhardt.


Democratic primary results from Maricopa County are here (state and federal) and here (county)..
Republican primary results from Maricopa County are here (state and federal) and here (county).
Other party and non-partisan results from Maricopa County are here.
Results from the AZ Secretary of State are here.

David Schapira, the clear choice in CD9

In case you haven't heard (LOL), tomorrow is primary election day in Arizona.

There are contests on both sides of the ballot, but few are higher profile than the race for the Democratic nomination in the Ninth Congressional District.  The Ninth District takes in parts of Phoenix, Scottsdale, Mesa, Chandler and all of Tempe. 

There are three Democrats on the ballot -

Kyrsten Sinema, a former state legislator

Andrei Cherny, formerly chair of the Arizona Democratic Party

David Schapira, currently a state senator and Democratic leader in the Arizona Senate

All three are young, intelligent, and hard working, and regardless of the outcome Tuesday, the two runners-up will be at the head of the list of potential statewide candidates in 2014.

All three have won the support of some dedicated activists and volunteers, many of whom I like and respect, and even call "friend".

However, only one candidate can win this race, and I believe that the candidate who best merits our votes is David Schapira.

On the "big issues" David and the other candidates have very similar positions, but Schapira's honesty, directness and passion for his constituents, his employers, earns him the nod.

He has run a positive campaign, running *for* the privilege of representing the district, not *against* the other candidates.

He has a documented history of working for his constituents, but he also has a history of standing up for principle, even when it may not be politically advantageous.

Such as when he supported and worked for the effort to recall Russell Pearce.  Before he was recalled, Pearce was president of the Arizona State Senate, and if he had survived the recall, would have made Schapira's life at the Capitol a living hell.

Like most people who run for office, Schapira is relaxed and comfortable in front of, or in, a crowd. 

Schapira in front of a crowd



Schapira in a crowd

But he also genuinely likes talking with individual people, even after the crowds have thinned out -

David has been a life-long Arizonan, student, teacher, and small businessman.

David has been a strong advocate for the people of his district in the Arizona legislature, husband, and father (not in order of importance).



From Schapira's website

With your help, David will be Arizona's next great Congressman.

Vote for David Schapira tomorrow.

V for Victory

Jerry Gettinger, fourth from the left

The next in a series of guest posts from Jerry Gettinger, a delegate to the Democratic Convention in Charlotte, and a friend -

I had indicated that I was not going to write until I was in Charlotte and the Democratic convention had begun. However so much has happened and the excitement has soared. In view of that, I want to share with you some details that I have learned. The goings on at and before the convention are quite intricate. As you can imagine, there are thousands of people converging to meet and spend time smoozing, socializing and politicking. In order to keep the proceedings from deteriorating into sheer chaos, every detail has to be coordinated to the smallest item. Credentials are the currency of the event. And, not everyone has the same credential. In order to attend presentations or meals or locations, delegates need certain credentials. For example, one of the days, the vice president may make a presentation concerning civil rights. Not everyone in the Arizona delegation will have the credential to attend the presentation. As you can imagine, security is very tight. So far, the list of items that are not allowed on the floor is 2 pages. It makes an airport checkpoint look easy. By the way, it is reassuring to have such care.
 

We just learned that the voting delegates (of which I am one), will be sitting in the choice area called the bowl. All 46 will have seats in that area. That is new. The last convention the seating was all over the place. I recently discovered that I will be having breakfast with a member of the president’s staff, a good friend. In politics, as in other gatherings, it’s how close to power one can get that measures a person’s importance.
 

The campaign has gotten fierce. The birther issue was raised by Romney who claimed it was supposed to be a joke. It reminded me of the Jackson girl saying that she had a wardrobe malfunction at that Super Bowl event. I didn’t believe her anymore that I believe Romney. Shameful name-calling is rampant and the opposition would seem to fall back on using lies and half-truths to make a point. I’m reminded of a Jewish saying that goes “a half-truth is a whole lie.” There is a mean tone to the Republican words. A hint of racism and xenophobia. And while we Democrats have not been exactly pure at heart, rarely have mean and vicious themes been used to gain voters. The effort to re-impose on women restrictions that were lifted in the mid-1960s is troubling. It is similar to the type of restraints the Taliban imposes when they are in control. The attitude toward women is as if they were chattel to be owned with limited liberty.

 

I just received a revised schedule of the convention. And the city is going all out also. Complicated and exciting. The Arizona delegation will have the entire hotel except for one area where CBS will set up shop. Is there an interview in the future? As I write, a hurricane is coming within shouting distance of the Republican convention in Tampa. Divine intervention? Most likely not, but Michele Bachman blames the Democrats for climate change, then why not a hurricane? One never knows.
 

Next stop…Charlotte and victory!!!!!

The primary election is Tuesday: races to watch when the results come in

As most Arizonans know by now, or at least the ones who have watched TV, opened their mailbox or answered the door over the last month, Arizona's primary election is Tuesday.

In many regards, this election will be more important than the general election in November because many of the races will be decided in the primary (safe districts, uncontested general election races, etc.).

As such, some of the most interesting races will be decided Tuesday.

A sampling, with brief commentary about a few -

Federal races first -

R US Senate - The big names are Jeff Flake (current US Congressman) and Wil Cardon (deep-pocketed businessman).  It looks as if Flake will win this one by a comfortable margin, as the Cardon camp tried to run against Flake from the right...only to find out that there just isn't much room to work with there.

D CD1 - Candidates Ann Kirkpatrick (former member of Congress) and Wenona Benally Baldenegro (attorney and community activist) have been running a classic big money (Kirkpatrick) vs. grassroots (Baldenegro) campaign.  Expectations seem to be that Kirkpatrick will win.  Either way, the winner here will go on to face the winner of...

R CD1 - Where the candidates include Jonathan "Payday" Paton (former AZ legislator), Gaither Martin (a contractor for the Defense Department, rodeo guy, interned with former Congressman JD Hayworth), and Patrick Gatti (retired businessman).  There was a fourth candidate, Douglas Wade, but he ran out of money and withdrew from the race, endorsing Martin on his way out the door.  Paton has the highest name recognition in the race, but he is also the carpetbagger in the race (he actually lives near Tucson).  If he wins the primary race, he's going to have an uphill battle against either Kirkpatrick or Baldenegro.

R CD4 - Candidates Ron Gould (current state senator), Rick Murphy (businessman from Lake Havasu City) and Paul Gosar (current member of Congress, in another district), are on the ballot, but the real race is between Gould and Gosar.  It's been a battle of PACs as well as candidates, as the dentists' PAC has been spending thousands of dollars on behalf of one of its own (Gosar) as the Club for Growth has spent thousands on behalf of Gould.

R CD5 - The race is between former Congressman Matt Salmon and former state representative (and speaker of the Arizona House) Kirk Adams.  Salmon started off very strong in both fundraising and endorsements, and while he hasn't exactly dropped off of the table, he didn't put away Adams early.  Adams has pulled, if not even, into the same ballpark as Salmon in terms of fundraising, and he has racked up same big-name endorsements.  The biggest of those is Jeff Flake, whose current Congressional district 6 covers much the same territory as the new district 5.  In addition, Adams has some kind of event scheduled for Monday afternoon with former VP candidate and current media personality Sarah Palin.  It may turn out to be a desperate, last gasp kind of effort, but it also indicates that the Adams campaign (and Palin) think that they are close enough for such an effort to make a difference.

R CD6 - Freshman Congressmen David Schweikert and Ben Quayle are slicing each other to ribbons for the same district (it's a rather safe one for Rs).  The candidates alone have spent close to $3 million on just the primary, and PACs and IE (Independent Expenditure) expenditures add hundreds of thousand more to that total.  This one has been bloody and it may not let up even after the polls close on Tuesday.

D CD9 - Another rough one.  Not as rough as the Rs in CDs 6 or 4, but still plenty of bruised friendships.  Candidates David Schapira (current Democratic leader in the AZ state senate), Kyrsten Sinema (former legislator) and Andrei Cherny (former chair of the AZ Democratic Party) have been fighting it out for the nomination in this district, probably the most competitive in Arizona.  Things have gotten very negative, with pro-Sinema and pro-Cherny PACs weighing in with a seemingly never-ending stream of attack mail pieces and robocalls.  The attacks are usually misrepresentations or outright lies.  Right now it looks like it is going to come down to Schapira and Sinema, with Cherny a close but definite third.  However, all three campaigns have their GOTV efforts fully up to speed this weekend.  Whoever wins the primary will be nicked up, but will immediately be the favorite in the general election.

R CD9 - Not as rough as the Ds in CD9, but that's as much about money (or the lack thereof) as it is about temperment.  There are seven candidates - Vernon Parker, Travis Grantham, Lisa Borowsky, Wendy Rogers, Leah Campos Schandlbauer, Martin Sepulveda, and Jeff Thompson.  Parker has the highest name ID (currently on the town council in Paradise Valley and a former candidate for Congress in the old CD3), Borowsky has the best signs (four color, full bleed, etc.), Travis Grantham has a lot of outside support (for some reason, an out-of-state PAC that is supporting Schweikert in CD6 is supporting Grantham, who never held or even run for office as far as I can tell), and Sepulveda may have the best story (veteran, seventh-generation Arizonan, former Chandler City Council member, etc.; in most states he'd be a virtual lock.  However, in AZ he is Latino and running in an R primary.  If there is a way for him to come in eighth in a seven-way primary, the Russell Pearce wing of his party will find a way to make it happen).  This race is so low profile and so low money, it's hard to get a read on it.  However, CD9 is truly competitive, so whichever candidate gets through the primary will have a real chance against the bloodied D nominee.


State legislative races -

R LD16 Senate - A fight between two members of the lege.  Current State Sen. Rich Crandall moved into this district to avoid a primary fight with Russell Pearce.  By doing so, however, he set up a primary fight with State Rep. John Fillmore, a Pearce ally who has turned into a bit of a Pearce proxy.  This one has turned into an intramural spitting match between two of the wings of the Republican party, with the business and establishment types favoring Crandall and the tea party/nativist types favoring Fillmore.

R LD25 Senate - The R primary in LD16 is the undercard to this one, the main event.  The aforementioned Pearce, recalled last year, is looking for a return to the Senate this year.  He is facing businessman and political newcomer Bob Worsley.  It's the LD16 race on steroids, and according to the analyses/guesses of the pundits on KAET's Horizon on Friday, it may be the last gasp of the Pearce machine.  We'll see Tuesday, but I hope they're right.

D LD24 Senate - Katie Hobbs (current state rep.) and Ken Cheuvront (former state senator) are facing off in this one.  While this one has gotten personal, the candidates trading barbs are Cheuvront and Chad Campbell, the Democratic leader in the AZ House, who is running for...a return to the House.  ???  Anyway, Cheuvront has a little more money than Hobbs, but his campaign has all but ignored the active Democrats in the district, and given that we are talking about a *Democratic* primary....

D LD30 Senate - Candidates Robert Meza (current state senator) and Raquel Teran (community activist) are facing off here.  This one has also gotten a little rough - Teran may be a newcomer to being a candidate, but Meza is not well-thought-of in the district.  There have been charges and counter-charges flying here.

R LD1 House - The candidates are Andy Tobin (currently Speaker of the AZ House), Karen Fann (current House member), and Lori Klein (current Senate member).  This is a race brought about by redistricting.  The new LD is centered around Prescott in Yavapai County (home turf of Fann and Tobin) but extends down to Anthem in Maricopa County (home of Klein).  With the new district maps, Klein and Senate President Steve Pierce ended up in the same district, and not wanting to face an electoral buzzsaw, Klein chose to take a chance on a move to the House.  Even though two of the three will move on, Klein has decided to go after Tobin hard, even to the point of bringing in failed presidential candidate Herman Cain on her side.  Don't know much about Fann, but Tobin is a nasty piece of work.  For instance, he was a big part of the R effort to hijack/intimidate the redistricting commission last year.

Which still makes him better than Klein, who is just plain bat-shit crazy.  She's packed heat to a state of the state address, on the floor of the House, read a hate- and nativist stereotype-filled letter on the floor of the Senate, pointed a loaded pistol at a reporter (she didn' mean no harm; she just wanted to show off the purrty li'l pink pistol with the purrty li'l laser sight), and for good measure, tried to get a bill passed that would have barred her HOA from telling her that she has to keep her dog leashed.

All in a single term in the Senate.

I'd say the home field advantage favors Tobin and Fann, but enough money could push Klein into contention.

R LD23 House - Another three-way race for two seats, much like LD1.  However, instead of a race between two ultra-conservative candidates and one crazy candidate, this one involves two crazy conservative ones and one that is conservative but not-so crazy.  The two incumbents, John Kavanagh and Michelle Ugenti are favorites of the tea party-types and other nativists.  The third candidate is Jennifer Petersen.  She has been a member of the Scottsdale school board for a long time and is known as "pragmatic", which has been the kiss of death in R primaries over the last few election cycles.

Other races to watch -

R Maricopa County Supervisor District 2 - The candidates are Lester Pearce (former Justice of the Peace, and brother of Russell Pearce) and Steve Chucri (businessman) and, paired with the R LD25 Senate primary, is shaping up as the potential end of the Pearce political machine.  Watch the numbers on this one.  If Pearce wins, it will be close, but a Chucri win could be a blowout.

R Navajo County Supervisor District 3 - The candidates are Tom Poscharsky and Sylvia Allen.  Allen is a current state senator and strong Pearce ally.  Not sure of anything about this race but it is worth keeping an eye on come Tuesday night.

R Pinal County Sheriff - The candidates are Paul Babeu (incumbent sheriff), Tom Bearup, Derek Arnson, and Jack McClaren.  Don't know much about the other candidates, but Babeu stepped in it earlier this year when allegations broke that he threatened to use his influence to have an ex-boyfriend deported.  There were also reports of improper professional conduct in the Pinal County Sheriff's Office.

However, those reports have no bearing on the large number of candidates entered in the primary against a sitting incumbent - politically, Babeu is a younger version of Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

However, that "boyfriend" thing is a serious problem in R circles.  It derailed Babeu's bid for Congress and led to a number of other Rs to mull challenging him for the sheriff's spot.  However, the number of candidates may actually help Babeu by splitting the anti-Babeu vote, allowing him to gain a plurality.


On Tuesday night, get your popcorn ready early and often - it's going to be a long night.

Dear Jan Brewer, You need a geography lesson...

...some suggestions on decorum and on giving relevent answers, and a whole lot of reality checks...

This weekend, New York Times Magazine will include an interview with Arizona's own Governor Jan Brewer.

Stifle your laughter, the writer, Andrew Goldman, attempted to do a serious interview.  It's not his fault that the subject of the interview is best known for vapid answers to direct questions.

The whole piece is worth a read, if only as comic relief in preparation for next week's Republican convention in Tampa (look for full coverage on The Weather Channel :) ). 

However, here are a few of the juicy bits, in the form of an open letter to Brewer (with my snarky insightful commentary) (emphasis mine) -

Dear Governor Brewer,

You recently did an interview with the New York Times.  I'm not sure why - perhaps you thought you could school those high-falutin' Easterners with your down-home brilliance, or perhaps you were just bored (being the chief executive in a state that utilizes a weak executive model of government has its downsides.  The title is nice, but that's about it.)  Either way, some of your answers could have been a little better.  To whit -
 

When you signed Arizona’s immigration law in 2010, you cited concerns about growing border violence. But according to the F.B.I., violent crime dropped in Arizona almost 14 percent the previous year.

As the saying goes, there are lies, damned lies and statistics. Fifty thousand people in Mexico have been murdered. Puerto Peñasco, 60 miles south of our border, just had five people and a police officer killed. That is like part of Arizona, and it is spilling over into our state. 

 
No Jan, Puerto Peñasco, also known as Rocky Point, is NOT a part of Arizona, nor is it "like" a part of Arizona.  Perhaps if AZ had some oceanfront property...
 

The photograph of you confronting the president has become quite famous. If you could do it over again, would you avoid wagging your finger?

He’s the one that chose to make a brief encounter about something petty that showed his thin skin. I agree it was unfortunate, but it happened, and I moved on.

 
Jan, you wrote smack about him in "your" book (it was ghost-written, but you put your name on it, so it is yours), and you created a photo op on the runway to pump sales of that book, and now you're offended that he didn't publicly kiss up to you?  Maybe one of you is being petty and thin-skinned, but it isn't President Obama...
 

Critics have called it the “Breathing While Brown” law.

I don’t think Americans would tolerate profiling. That’s just a red herring.

 
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha!  Who knew you were such a kidder?
 

You signed a law that entitles people to carry concealed guns in bars as long as they don’t drink. I wouldn’t trust myself in a bar with access to a gun.

I think a bartender knows who’s drinking and who isn’t. 

 
What's that got to do with anything?  And are you going to personally pay for the funerals of any bartenders/waitstaff who decline to serve an armed customer?

Oh, and remember when you dismissed FBI crime rate statistics because they didn't suit you rhetorical position ("...lies, damned lies, and statistics...")?  You undercut your own credibility with -
       

But a bartender wouldn’t know who’s carrying a concealed weapon.

Ninety-nine point nine percent of the people that are gun owners are very responsible.

"Ninety-nine point nine percent..."?  Either you made up a number or you are citing a study that no one else as seen or reviewed.  That's fine.  Just pick one.  Your critics can work with either, which sounds like a choice you shouldn't make, but if you don't, we'll use both.

Speaking as one of your critics, please don't choose.  I like having options.

Thank you for your time.  If you find any of these observations helpful, let me know, and I'll be happy to critique some of your other statements.  OK, I'm probably going to do that anyway. :)

Enjoy your trip to Tampa next week.  Bring your umbrella.  Maybe a row boat, too.  Trust me.

A "just trying to be helpful" kind of guy,

Me.

God to GOP convention-goers: "Bring your umbrellas and hip waders"

What is it about massive storms and Republican conventions?

Four years ago, right about this time, the Republicans were preparing for their national convention in Minneapolis.  At the same time, Hurricane Gustav was bearing down on the Gulf Coast.

Remembering the utter devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, people all over the southeastern US, and all over the country, feverishly prepared for possible imminent disaster.

Gustav turned out to be a serious storm but nowhere near as damaging or deadly, as Katrina. 

However, it thoroughly disrupted the Republican convention as many R electeds chose to stay home to avoid the heavy criticism that dogged the Rs in the aftermath of Katrina, when the Bush Administration all but ignored the disaster for days.

Fast forward four years, and history is on track to possibly repeat itself.

Tropical Storm Isaac is working its way across the Caribbean toward the Florida coast, and the panic in Tampa is setting in.

The grand ol' poobahs of the Grand Old Party are pledging to stick it out, but if Isaac strengthens into a hurricane (expected to happen on Friday) and makes landfall at or near Tampa (murkier, but on track right now), they may be the only ones left in Tampa when the convention begins - most residents of Florida know enough to "get the hell out of Dodge" (so to speak).

Many GOPers spout some of the most inane, insane, and just plain hateful rhetoric ever heard, and justify their spoutings by claiming that "God spoke to them."

Well, I'm not qualified to say if God spoke to them before one of their number murdered a doctor in a church in Kansas, or another slaughtered six Sikhs at a temple in Wisconsin, or shot at a mosque in Chicago (no deaths yet, but give the shooter time), but with two storms in two conventions, it looks like God (or Mother Nature or Random Chance, or whatever you prefer) is saying something to the Republican Party and its convention delegates now -

If you go to Tampa, dress appropriately.  It's going to get deeeeeeep.

Short Attention Span Musing

...Guess the GOP has decided that it doesn't need the votes of women...

By now, everyone with a TV, access to the internet, or simply has a pulse has heard of GOP Rep. Todd Akin's remarks that women who are the victims of a "legitimate rape" cannot get pregnant as a result of that rape.  He supports a total ban on abortion and he used his assertion to rationalize his opposition to carving out an exception to the ban in the case of a rape that results in a pregnancy.

He's been getting heat from all over, even from Republicans looking to distance themselves from his remarks (even as a GOP committee added Akin's position to their 2012 platform).

Perhaps wanting to show solidarity with Akin's ignorance and misogyny, his colleague, Rep. Steve King (R-IA) chimed in today by announcing that he has never heard of victims of statutory rape or incest "getting pregnant" as a result of the statutory rape or incest.


...Guess the GOP has decided it doesn't need the votes of Latinos, either...

Exhibit 1 - They're bringing Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio to their convention in Tampa next week to speak to delegates.  From KPHO (Channel 5), written by Sean McLaughlin -

Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio will speak to Republican National Convention delegates in Tampa this month. He won't be speaking at the convention hall but at a special reception at the city's zoo.

According to a news release from the state's Republican Party, the self-proclaimed "toughest sheriff in the country" will address delegates from western states at the Lowrey Park Zoo on Aug. 30.

Exhibit 2 - They've added many of the provisions of the infamous SB1070 to the party platform mentioned above.  From The Hill, written by Cameron Joseph -

The Republican Party has officially endorsed its backing for Arizona-style state immigration laws, adding into its platform language that such laws should be "encouraged, not attacked" and calling for the federal government to drop its lawsuits against the laws.

That language and other provisions were widely approved by the party after being introduced by the co-author of the Arizona law, Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R).

...Guess the GOP has decided that they can make up the lost votes by appealing to the "overgrown drunken frat boy" demographic.

From Reuters, via the Chicago Tribune (emphasis mine) -

A group of Republican lawmakers and staff jumped into Israel's Sea of Galilee last year after a night of dining and drinking, and one freshman congressman swam naked, Republican aides confirmed late on Sunday.

The incident, first reported by Politico on Sunday, was investigated by the FBI and led Republican leaders in the House of Representatives to reprimand the 30 lawmakers on the privately funded trip.

{snip}

Representatives Steve Southerland, Tom Reed, Ben Quayle, Jeff Denham and Michael Grimm were among the more than 20 lawmakers and staff that jumped into the Sea of Galilee, Politico said.

To be fair to Arizona's Ben Quayle, while he was there cavorting on some private lobbyist's dime, he kept his clothes on, more or less (at least, not as "less" as Rep. Kevin Yoder, the "au natural" swimmer).

Still, probably not the image that Quayle, whose biggest (non-papa Quayle-purchased) career accomplishment prior to winning a seat in Congress was writing for gossipy/near-porn site "Dirty Scottsdale", wants to project.


BTW - for this post, I think I deserve extra points for not going for a "tried walking on water" joke.  It was too obvious.  It was too lame.  It was...OK - who am I kidding?  I couldn't think of one on short notice that was good enough.

David Schapira - the positive candidate in CD9

Two negatives don't make a positive...but two overwhelmingly negative candidates may help propel the positive candidate in a race to a win.

The CD9 Democratic primary has become very negative.  Not as negative as the Rs in CD6 (Schweikert v. Quayle) where they are gay-baiting, or as the negative as the Rs in CD4 (Gosar v. Gould v. Murphy) where during their debate on KAET's Horizon one was left with the impression that if Gosar and Gould had knives, there would have been blood on the floor.

Still, in CD9, the half-truths and outright lies have been flying about with increasing frequency.

Kyrsten Sinema put out a mailer that attacks both of her opponents, Andrei Cherny and David Schapira, claiming that both Schapira and Cherny support public education-destroying school vouchers.  I can't speak for Cherny (don't know him that well), but in the six years that David Schapira has been representing me in the Arizona Legislature, he has always been a staunch defender of public education.

There is also a PAC/independent expenditure group named "Restoring Arizona's Integrity" that has spent more than $50K attacking Cherny.  That group has ties to the Sinema camp - the organizers of the committee are long-time lobbyists in AZ and the head of the lobbying firm has contributed to Sinema's campaign.

Another group, "Progressive Independent Committee" has begun weighing in with "hit pieces" (aka - negative mailers) against Sinema, against Sinema and Schapira, and robocalls (against Sinema, I think; not sure because I didn't get one of those).  The combo hit piece compared Schapira and Sinema to Republicans Russell Pearce, Jan Brewer and Joe Arpaio. 

Like many Democrats in the district, I have formed opinions of all three Ds in the CD9 race.  While most of us now support one candidate over the other two, that doesn't mean we believe that the other two are stupid and/or evil.  This particular mailer isn't just nasty, it may border on libel (and that's tough to pull off when talking about politicians).

That group is more shadowy.  Its organizer, Matthew D. Langley, is a political operative based in Tennessee.  His firm, MD Langley & Associates, has been administratively dissolved by the Tennessee Secretary of State for failure to file annual reports -

The filing problems continue with Langley, as he has been lax in filing Independent Expenditure reports for the committee, filing only one report (for the initial anti-Sinema mailers) but not doing so for his/the committee's other activity (the mailer that railed against both Sinema and Schapira and the robocalls).

Anyway, this committee seems to be the Cherny committee.  If the targets of its vitriol don't make that clear enough, how about this -

Langley used to work for a firm called Patton Technologies as Director of Compliance, and early in his campaign for Arizona Treasurer, Andrei Cherny hired, you guessed it, Patton Technologies.

Note to Mr. Langley if he bothers to read this: A "Director of Compliance" shouldn't have filing issues on his resume.  Just sayin'...


The negative blasts from from the Cherny and Sinema camps seem to be working against them and boosting Schapira, who has been running an unfailingly positive campaign - a recent poll (published in the Yellow Sheet, so I cannot link to it) shows Schapira with a small lead in the race, and a reception with former Congressman Harry Mitchell on Saturday night was just packed.

Next Wednesday,  the Arizona Democratic Party will hold the 2012 Forward Together unity rally in Phoenix. 

I have no doubt that regardless of the outcome of Tuesday's primary, David Schapira will be there to support all Democratic candidates.  I can't say I believe the same about the others.

And that fact, combined with his relentlessly positive campaign and the fact that he is the candidate most concerned with the people of the Ninth Congressional District, is why David Schapira is the best candidate in the race.

With a move calculated to stave off imminent lame-duck status, Jan Brewer only gets lamer

The Obama Administration is rolling out a "deferred action" policy, affecting undocumented immigrants.  Under the policy, eligible undocumented immigrants can apply for a deferral of removal proceedings (aka - deportation) for a renewable two-year period.

Approval for the program will not confer "legal" status upon the affected immigrants, though they may receive authorization to legally work in the US during the deferral period.

Naturally, the nativists have wigged out.

Arizona's highest-ranking nativist, Governor Jan Brewer (in comparison to Arizona's rankest nativist, Russell Pearce) weighed in with her two cents' worth, issuing an executive order to make sure that undocument immigrants can't get any public benefits, something which they *aren't* granted by the President's new policy.

Yes, this means that Brewer issued a meaningless executive order to counter President Obama's meaningful one.

Now, it could be that Chuck Coughlin (aka - the person who really controls the Ninth Floor) may have taken a day off, and this is completely the product of Brewer's intellect, but it seems likely that this order is really intended to remind legislative Republicans that she is still the governor. 

A reminder that she hopes finds its mark, because she is rapidly approaching political irrelevance.

Once the new legislature is seated, she will be viewed mostly as a bystander by the Rs in the lege, as they jockey for position for the 2014 race for the office she currently holds.  Each and every one of them will be focused on throwing elbows as they position themselves for a run at the office or to ally themselves with the person they consider to be the strongest candidate.  Since she's term-limited, she cannot be that person, hence she is totally meaningless in their world (this part isn't a dig at Brewer, it just *is*.  She's not the first officeholder this could be said about, and she won't be the last).

So, Jan Brewer thinks that her path to continued relevance is to issue an irrelevant order?


Personally, I actually hope that Coughlin was out of town or getting a root canal or something, anything, that left a Nurse Ratched wanna-be in charge of the asylum for a day.

And only a day.

Arizona is in bad enough shape with Brewer as the titular head of Arizona's government; if she actually runs things (say...if Coughlin moves on to the next puppet "client" before the 2014 election), there may not be much of an Arizona left for the winner of the 2014 election to govern.

OK, this last part *is* a dig at Brewer.  As if you couldn't tell. :)

NY Times coverage of the deferral program here.
CBS News coverage of Brewer here.

The Ryan pick: It ain't over 'til it's over

By now, pretty much everybody who follows American politics has heard the news:  Mitt Romney has selected Congressman Paul Ryan as his vice-presidential candidate.

And *Democrats* are overjoyed. 

Ryan is the architect of the infamous Ryan Budget Plan that would, if enacted, basically end Medicare for America's seniors (among many other programs) and massively increase spending on defense (aka - funnel even more taxpayer to defense contractors).

Democrats view Ryan as "low-hanging fruit", somebody who will be easy to campaign against as an Ayn Rand-worshipping would-be Galtian superman who wants to dismantle all parts of government and society that don't directly support the wealthy.

While most observers expect Romney to receive a post-announcement "bump" in public opinion polls (that are currently favoring President Obama by a solid margin), continuing through the Republican convention in Tampa, they expect the numbers to return to "normal" once the Democratic convention in Charlotte begins.

Which is all well and good, but just a reminder - Jimmy Carter, Mike Dukakis, Al Gore, John Kerry, and even John McCain all had leads, sometimes significant ones, in their presidential races, but still lost.

At this point, it's all about follow-through, about entering the final few months of the campaign with as much focus and energy as the last few months and finishing strong.

This one is a long way from over.


Having said all that, I've got a few thoughts on the Ryan pick -

1.   Ryan could be this year's version of Sarah Palin.  No, not in the "crash and burn on the campaign trail as preparation for a reality TV gig" sort of way, but in the "like McCain before him, instead of trying to reach for the middle to gain new votes, Romney chose a VP candidate meant to solidify his support among the far-right of his own party, aka people who were never going to vote for Obama anyway" sort of way.  Maybe that will work out for Romney; history says not.

2.  As happy as Democrats are over this pick, that's got to be nothing compared to the ecstasy that John Boehner, the R Speaker of the US House, is feeling right now.  One of the biggest threats to Boehner's position as leader (and a strong ally of the biggest threat, Eric Cantor) of the Republican caucus in Congress is either a) going to be out of Congress (if Romney pulls out a win) or b) going to be saddled with a hefty chunk of the blame for the Rs' failure to take the White House (if Romney loses).  Either way, a W for Boehner.

3.  Of course, the selection of Ryan as the VP candidate also anoints him as the "next big thing" and presumptive R nominee in 2016 (if Romney loses) or 2020 (if Romney wins).  Former VPs and VP candidates haven't fared too well in their runs for the top spot, but being a former VP/VP candidate beats *not* being a former VP/VP candidate.

4.  However the national election turns out, the Ryan pick may be beneficial to downballot Democrats in Arizona, and maybe even increase the chances of President Obama to carry Arizona.  While the presence of Romney on the ballot will elevate the turnout of the Mormon community looking to support one of their own in his run for the White House, the presence of Ryan on the ballot will elevate the turnout of the retiree community looking to protect Medicare and Social Security.


I'm sure that there will be more to come on this subject...

More victories in '12

The second post in a series from Jerry Gettinger, a friend and a delegate to the 2012 Democratic Convention in Charlotte...

In the last communique I promised to explain why it was important that I declare my representation as a delegate for a particular candidate. Since there is an incumbent, it is assumed that the president would be candidate and the VP would also run. However, if there was no one in office, then my declaration of candidacy would mean that I was obligated to vote for the candidate that I stipulated in my application. The vote would be binding on the first tally. After that I could vote for whomever I chose.

However that is only important if there is a convention where there is more than one candidate. At any rate, I declared for the president and the VP. By the rules there would be only a certain number of voting delegates. As I mentioned before, the number of delegates was based on the number of Democrats in the state. So, the race was on! The contest was between a relatively large number of candidates vying for the positions. There would be a total of 46 elected delegates, of which I was fortunate to be one. The 46 was in addition to the PLELO delegates.(party leaders). This year was more desirable because of the president. There would be no contest as to who would be the candidate. Just fun.

It is August 6^th. The time is rapidly approaching when I would leave. It will be very exciting to see democracy in action. I can’t say that I will write again until the start of the convention. If anything of interest and/or importance comes about, then I will make certain it will be conveyed. If not, I’ll see you from Charlotte.

Later...