...In a surprising back-step, Fox has decided not to release OJ Simpson's book "If I Did It: Here's How It Happened," nor will it air its planned two-night promotional interview promoting the book.
Note: both the publisher of the book, ReganBooks, and the network (Fox) are owned by Rupert Murdoch's NewsCorp.
I'm a little disappointed by Fox. I was looking forward to actively choosing to do something other than watch TV when the interview aired.
...(from the Phoenix Business Journal) In a surprising show of bipartisan unity, Arizona Republican congressmen Hayworth, Renzi, and Franks voted with their Democratic colleagues from AZ, Ed Pastor and Raul Grijalva, to block a free trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam.
Republicans Kolbe, Shadegg, and Flake voted for the measure.
...Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY) has called for reinstituting a military draft.
In a word: NO.
In more words: I understand the socioeconomic impetus behind this (the membership of the current all-volunteer armed services is heavily weighted toward the poor and racial and ethnic minority groups, perhaps unfairly so) but that's a reason to fix the system, not force people into the military against their will.
His proposal is a military-only draft; perhaps if it was part of a comprehensive public-service requirement, it might be more palatable. Options could include military service, as well as public works projects or working in poorer public schools, etc.
Of course, I could support a military-only draft, if the proposal required that the first 50,000 (or so) people drafted were the children or grandchildren of federal elected officials, senior government officials (Cabinet and sub-Cabinet), and of the directors and officers of defense contractors.
In one fell swoop, we'd become the most peace-loving nation in the history of the world.
OK, so a national public service requirement is more likely.
Hell, the Earth's rotation changing so that the Sun rises in the West and sets in the East is more likely.
Oh, and one more point against reinstituting a draft: Anybody drafted would have to take an oath swearing to follow the orders of the President of the United States.
Swear to follow the orders of George W. Bush??
Not gonna happen.
...My favorite headline of the weekend, from Yahoo! News:
"Calif. couple calls for orgasm for peace"
The couple is calling for an anti-war protest on December 22nd; not in the streets, but one we can all participate in by staying home.
Provide your own punch lines. :)
All I have to ask is who is going to volunteer to take one for the team (humanity) and bring peace to Ann Coulter? (Sorry, I couldn't resist a punch line of my own. :) )
...Time to go to the LD17 Dems' reorg meeting. Later!
Monday, November 20, 2006
Sunday, November 19, 2006
Quick weekend news hits...
In JD Hayworth news, Geo at Geo's Precinct 134 picked up on something reported in the AZ Republic:
Apparently, JD lobbyed his colleagues in the House against John Shadegg's bid to become House Minority Whip, and did it as retribution for perceived slights against his image that were published prior to the election.
I don't know if it's true (hey, it's a 2nd- or 3rd-hand report of a rumor), but I find it believable.
Since the election, JD seems to be going through the pattern of basic stages of grief, DABDA.
Denial (check out his concession press release here.)
Anger (see: the AZ Rep article linked above, illustrating JD's penchant for blaming anyone other than himself for the election results)
Next up: Bargaining (should be entertaining to watch), followed by Depression (could be very scary), finally ending up with Acceptance.
If JD plans on ever running for office again, and I would be shocked if he didn't at least try to retake CD5 in 2008, he'd better reach "Acceptance" quickly and pull his head out of his a__ - the Republican Party forgives many things from its extremists, but tantrums/hatchet jobs on party loyalists aren't on the list.
...In more "uplifting" news, strippers, porn producers, and visually-oriented people everywhere are rejoicing today.
The FDA has lifted its ban on silicone breast implants.
Coming soon to newspapers, TV, billboards, and spam:
"Silicone - the real thing in fake boobs. Get yours now! Order by December 8th for Guaranteed Delivery By Christmas!"
Later!
Apparently, JD lobbyed his colleagues in the House against John Shadegg's bid to become House Minority Whip, and did it as retribution for perceived slights against his image that were published prior to the election.
I don't know if it's true (hey, it's a 2nd- or 3rd-hand report of a rumor), but I find it believable.
Since the election, JD seems to be going through the pattern of basic stages of grief, DABDA.
Denial (check out his concession press release here.)
Anger (see: the AZ Rep article linked above, illustrating JD's penchant for blaming anyone other than himself for the election results)
Next up: Bargaining (should be entertaining to watch), followed by Depression (could be very scary), finally ending up with Acceptance.
If JD plans on ever running for office again, and I would be shocked if he didn't at least try to retake CD5 in 2008, he'd better reach "Acceptance" quickly and pull his head out of his a__ - the Republican Party forgives many things from its extremists, but tantrums/hatchet jobs on party loyalists aren't on the list.
...In more "uplifting" news, strippers, porn producers, and visually-oriented people everywhere are rejoicing today.
The FDA has lifted its ban on silicone breast implants.
Coming soon to newspapers, TV, billboards, and spam:
"Silicone - the real thing in fake boobs. Get yours now! Order by December 8th for Guaranteed Delivery By Christmas!"
Later!
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
This week's sign that the landscape in D.C. has changed...
at least for George Bush:
From All Headline News -
Freshman Rep. [Keith] Ellison Chooses AFL-CIO Reception Over Meeting President
From All Headline News -
Freshman Rep. [Keith] Ellison Chooses AFL-CIO Reception Over Meeting President
The Minnesota Democrat, who is replacing outgoing Rep. Martin Sabo, tells
reporters, "I went to the AFL-CIO reception, because I wanted to meet and greet
leaders of labor, and get to know them. Those are the people who I came here to
support."
News Roundup for Wednesday, November 15
...with some opinions thrown in for good measure. :)
- - - Jack Abramoff went to federal prison today in PA. In an email to friends sent prior to entering the prison, he bemoaned the "nightmare political scandal" that he's involved in. (Yahoo! News)
Awwww.
- - - Robert Novak, like many, keeps associating JD Hayworth's (and others') loss last week with his stance on immigration. (Human Events)
He lost because he was a loud, mean-spirited, arrogant, deceptive blowhard whose favorite topic was immigration.
He lost because he campaigned on fear, distortions, and outright lies.
He lost because Harry Mitchell was a better candidate, and the voters of CD5 recognized that.
- - - The 2008 Presidential Prognostication Pundits are warming up their crystal balls already.
Novak did it, calling John McCain, Governor Tim Pawlenty of MN (both from the Republican side), Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Governor Brian Schweitzer of MT (from the Democratic side) the "winners" of the 2006 election cycle, and John Kerry and Mitt Romney, as well as the aforementioned immigration hawks, the "losers" of the cycle.
Of course, one week before the election, Darth Novak predicted that JD would win reelection.
- - - Of course, the 2010 Governor Guessing Game has begun in earnest, too.
Writing in the Phoenix Business Journal, Mike Sunnucks discusses potential candidates. He specifically mentioned Congressfolk JD, Rick Renzi, Jeff Flake, as well as Mary Peters and Rick Romley as possible Rep contenders, and Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon and AZ AG Terry Goddard as possible Dem aspirants.
Interestingly enough, a couple of us spoke about this very topic just last week. Our conversation was mostly about the Dem contenders, and we came to the same conclusions as Mr. Sunnucks about Phil Gordon's plans.
We saw the same "Phil Gordon is everywhere at once" phenomenon this cycle and thought that his efforts were for one of two reasons:
1. He's trying to increase his name recognition both with the Democratic Party faithful and with the voters in general; or
2. He's an attention whore.
In the end, we agreed that it was likely that both statements are accurate. :)
BTW - Rick Renzi as Governor???? I'm not even sure he'd consider it, unless the State of Arizona begins awarding defense contracts.
Mantech just wouldn't get enough of a return on their investment otherwise.
- - - In what was perhaps the least surprising news of the week, Arizona Senator Jon Kyl was elected as Republican Conference Chairman in the Senate.
- - - Writing in the Arizona Republic, Bob Schuster observes that by elevating uber-conservative Thayer Verschoor to the position of Senate Majority Leader, the AZGOP is sending a message to Governor Napolitano.
That message?? Get ready "for another long, needlessly contentious legislative session."
Anyway, more later!!
- - - Jack Abramoff went to federal prison today in PA. In an email to friends sent prior to entering the prison, he bemoaned the "nightmare political scandal" that he's involved in. (Yahoo! News)
Awwww.
- - - Robert Novak, like many, keeps associating JD Hayworth's (and others') loss last week with his stance on immigration. (Human Events)
He lost because he was a loud, mean-spirited, arrogant, deceptive blowhard whose favorite topic was immigration.
He lost because he campaigned on fear, distortions, and outright lies.
He lost because Harry Mitchell was a better candidate, and the voters of CD5 recognized that.
- - - The 2008 Presidential Prognostication Pundits are warming up their crystal balls already.
Novak did it, calling John McCain, Governor Tim Pawlenty of MN (both from the Republican side), Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Governor Brian Schweitzer of MT (from the Democratic side) the "winners" of the 2006 election cycle, and John Kerry and Mitt Romney, as well as the aforementioned immigration hawks, the "losers" of the cycle.
Of course, one week before the election, Darth Novak predicted that JD would win reelection.
- - - Of course, the 2010 Governor Guessing Game has begun in earnest, too.
Writing in the Phoenix Business Journal, Mike Sunnucks discusses potential candidates. He specifically mentioned Congressfolk JD, Rick Renzi, Jeff Flake, as well as Mary Peters and Rick Romley as possible Rep contenders, and Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon and AZ AG Terry Goddard as possible Dem aspirants.
Interestingly enough, a couple of us spoke about this very topic just last week. Our conversation was mostly about the Dem contenders, and we came to the same conclusions as Mr. Sunnucks about Phil Gordon's plans.
We saw the same "Phil Gordon is everywhere at once" phenomenon this cycle and thought that his efforts were for one of two reasons:
1. He's trying to increase his name recognition both with the Democratic Party faithful and with the voters in general; or
2. He's an attention whore.
In the end, we agreed that it was likely that both statements are accurate. :)
BTW - Rick Renzi as Governor???? I'm not even sure he'd consider it, unless the State of Arizona begins awarding defense contracts.
Mantech just wouldn't get enough of a return on their investment otherwise.
- - - In what was perhaps the least surprising news of the week, Arizona Senator Jon Kyl was elected as Republican Conference Chairman in the Senate.
- - - Writing in the Arizona Republic, Bob Schuster observes that by elevating uber-conservative Thayer Verschoor to the position of Senate Majority Leader, the AZGOP is sending a message to Governor Napolitano.
That message?? Get ready "for another long, needlessly contentious legislative session."
Anyway, more later!!
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
About damn time...
With what has to be the most weaselly and mealy-mouthed candidate press release ever, JD Hayworth finally publicly conceded that Harry Mitchell received more votes in the election for the CD5 seat in Congress.
Somebody who likes JD (there *has* to be someone, right??) needs to sit him down and talk to him.
Right now, he makes Sen. Rick "man on dog" Santorum look like the epitome of personal grace and class. (Actually, while I was ecstatic on Election Night when Santorum's race was called with Bob Casey as the winner, I've got to give him credit for a conciliatory, complimentary, and congratulatory concession speech. If he had shown that much humanity during his term in the Senate, he could have won re-election.)
If he (JD) ever plans on running for office again...whatthehell am I thinking?!?
If he ever plans on running for office again, he shouldn't change a thing.
Not one bit.
Somebody who likes JD (there *has* to be someone, right??) needs to sit him down and talk to him.
Right now, he makes Sen. Rick "man on dog" Santorum look like the epitome of personal grace and class. (Actually, while I was ecstatic on Election Night when Santorum's race was called with Bob Casey as the winner, I've got to give him credit for a conciliatory, complimentary, and congratulatory concession speech. If he had shown that much humanity during his term in the Senate, he could have won re-election.)
If he (JD) ever plans on running for office again...whatthehell am I thinking?!?
If he ever plans on running for office again, he shouldn't change a thing.
Not one bit.
Great pic from Tony at Wactivist.com
Pretty distinguished looking bunch, huh?
They are - they're Congress' class of incoming freshman.
Harry Mitchell is in the top row; Gabrielle Giffords is in the middle row.
Monday, November 13, 2006
One week on...
A few observations and ruminations after a week of digesting the mid-terms...
...Jim Pederson's candidacy for the U.S. Senate proved two things -
1. Jon Kyl is vulnerable.
2. Money alone isn't going to get the job done.
After a slow start, Jim Pederson developed into a solid campaigner, both on stage and on TV. However, most of that development occurred after the primary in September.
Jim, and the AZDems, would have been better served if he had faced a viable challenger in the primary. That would have forced him to grow as a candidate before he directly faced the seasoned campaigner Kyl. It also would have given him the opportunity to frame the talking points of the campaign (Iraq, Iraq, minimum wage, Iraq!) instead of giving Kyl a headstart.
Note to AZDems: Think about this the next time you run an inexperienced candidate, especially against an experienced one.
...When I was looking back at all of my posts this season, the one that I was proudest of was my post on the Central Arizona Water Conservation District race. Of all of my posts, it received the most positive feedback and thanks.
For a brief moment, I suffered from the delusion that I might of had a bit of influence.
That moment lasted until the results for the race came in.
With one exception (Lisa Atkins), every one of the candidates that I thought was most qualified for the board lost. As for every candidate that I thought was unqualified?
They won.
Ugh.
When that many political apparatchiks go for an office with no pay, no power (from the perspective of the general public, anyway) and no visibility, I have to wonder why.
I'll be keeping an eye on things like contract awards from CAP, as well as the effects of the board's actions on the values of land parcels owned by board members and their friends/families/political associates.
...Even more disappointing was the election of Dean Martin as state treasurer. He was 'creative' in the handling of contributions to his campaigns; I fully expect him to be 'creative' in his handling of Arizona's money and investments.
I'd be cheered by the fact that the State Treasurer doesn't supervise Arizona's Auditor General, except that the legislature does supervise the Auditor, and I would be very surprised if they ever allow the Auditor to investigate a Republican treasurer. Especially one that was one of them for a while.
This is another one to keep an eye on.
...Has anybody noticed the fact that Harry Mitchell is ahead of some guy for the CD5 seat?
Just asking. :)
...Oh, and has anybody noticed the fact that Laura Knaperek is soon to be unemployed? At least until some lobbying firm hires her, anyway.
...I hope that everyone who is pressuring JD Hayworth to concede the race stops doing so. Every vote *should* be counted. Period.
We insist on it; in fact, it's a major campaign plank for many campaigns. It's also something that the Republicans oppose almost reflexively.
Let's enjoy the Republicans' squirming now that the shoe is on the other foot.
...On the other hand, as noted by former Congressman, fellow blogger, and head of Harry Mitchell's transition team (YES!!!) Sam Coppersmith, JD is being something of a hypocrite about this. Apparently, in his 1996 race against challenger Steve Owens, JD was ahead by less than 600 votes after the polls closed, and DEMANDED that Owens immediately concede.
I guess that JD doesn't believe that complete vote counts are for Democrats, just embattled, and desperate, Republican incumbents.
...In 2008 news, Sen. Russ Feingold (D - WI) opted out of the race for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination.
...In related news, Sen. John McCain (R - AZ) and former mayor of New York City Rudy Guiliani are starting exploratory committees for the Republican nomination. And (courtesy the AZ Rep's Plugged In) Mitt Romney was in town during his unofficial pre-Presidential tour.
Yes, folks, it's already started. :)
Later!
...Jim Pederson's candidacy for the U.S. Senate proved two things -
1. Jon Kyl is vulnerable.
2. Money alone isn't going to get the job done.
After a slow start, Jim Pederson developed into a solid campaigner, both on stage and on TV. However, most of that development occurred after the primary in September.
Jim, and the AZDems, would have been better served if he had faced a viable challenger in the primary. That would have forced him to grow as a candidate before he directly faced the seasoned campaigner Kyl. It also would have given him the opportunity to frame the talking points of the campaign (Iraq, Iraq, minimum wage, Iraq!) instead of giving Kyl a headstart.
Note to AZDems: Think about this the next time you run an inexperienced candidate, especially against an experienced one.
...When I was looking back at all of my posts this season, the one that I was proudest of was my post on the Central Arizona Water Conservation District race. Of all of my posts, it received the most positive feedback and thanks.
For a brief moment, I suffered from the delusion that I might of had a bit of influence.
That moment lasted until the results for the race came in.
With one exception (Lisa Atkins), every one of the candidates that I thought was most qualified for the board lost. As for every candidate that I thought was unqualified?
They won.
Ugh.
When that many political apparatchiks go for an office with no pay, no power (from the perspective of the general public, anyway) and no visibility, I have to wonder why.
I'll be keeping an eye on things like contract awards from CAP, as well as the effects of the board's actions on the values of land parcels owned by board members and their friends/families/political associates.
...Even more disappointing was the election of Dean Martin as state treasurer. He was 'creative' in the handling of contributions to his campaigns; I fully expect him to be 'creative' in his handling of Arizona's money and investments.
I'd be cheered by the fact that the State Treasurer doesn't supervise Arizona's Auditor General, except that the legislature does supervise the Auditor, and I would be very surprised if they ever allow the Auditor to investigate a Republican treasurer. Especially one that was one of them for a while.
This is another one to keep an eye on.
...Has anybody noticed the fact that Harry Mitchell is ahead of some guy for the CD5 seat?
Just asking. :)
...Oh, and has anybody noticed the fact that Laura Knaperek is soon to be unemployed? At least until some lobbying firm hires her, anyway.
...I hope that everyone who is pressuring JD Hayworth to concede the race stops doing so. Every vote *should* be counted. Period.
We insist on it; in fact, it's a major campaign plank for many campaigns. It's also something that the Republicans oppose almost reflexively.
Let's enjoy the Republicans' squirming now that the shoe is on the other foot.
...On the other hand, as noted by former Congressman, fellow blogger, and head of Harry Mitchell's transition team (YES!!!) Sam Coppersmith, JD is being something of a hypocrite about this. Apparently, in his 1996 race against challenger Steve Owens, JD was ahead by less than 600 votes after the polls closed, and DEMANDED that Owens immediately concede.
I guess that JD doesn't believe that complete vote counts are for Democrats, just embattled, and desperate, Republican incumbents.
...In 2008 news, Sen. Russ Feingold (D - WI) opted out of the race for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination.
...In related news, Sen. John McCain (R - AZ) and former mayor of New York City Rudy Guiliani are starting exploratory committees for the Republican nomination. And (courtesy the AZ Rep's Plugged In) Mitt Romney was in town during his unofficial pre-Presidential tour.
Yes, folks, it's already started. :)
Later!
Quick update time...
First, the change to Blogger Beta is going as swimmingly as ever. Still working on the feed to LeftyBlogs.com.
Arrggghhhh!!!!!
More importantly however, Harry Mitchell's lead increased in today's count of provisional and dropped-off early ballots.
Current totals have Harry leading JD Hayworth, 88,302 votes to 82,485 votes, a margin of 5,817 votes.
AP coverage, via the Tucson Citizen, here.
More later....
Arrggghhhh!!!!!
More importantly however, Harry Mitchell's lead increased in today's count of provisional and dropped-off early ballots.
Current totals have Harry leading JD Hayworth, 88,302 votes to 82,485 votes, a margin of 5,817 votes.
YES!!!
AP coverage, via the Tucson Citizen, here.
More later....
Saturday, November 11, 2006
Making a list, checking it twice,
keeping it for 2008.
Until the Mitchell/Hayworth race is certified, we should ALL be making files and saving quotes, like this one from the Hayworth campaign -
"So, we continue to advocate that each legally cast ballot must be legally counted."
You just know that in two years, when they win a close one, we're going to have to throw these quotes back in their faces when they (especially Jan Brewer) try to undercount the vote.
Later!!
Until the Mitchell/Hayworth race is certified, we should ALL be making files and saving quotes, like this one from the Hayworth campaign -
"So, we continue to advocate that each legally cast ballot must be legally counted."
You just know that in two years, when they win a close one, we're going to have to throw these quotes back in their faces when they (especially Jan Brewer) try to undercount the vote.
Later!!
Thursday, November 09, 2006
Newsing and musing, Mitchell/Hayworth edition
(OK, so 'newsing' isn't really a word. It rhymes, so cut me some slack. :)) )
Bloggers movin' on up...
...former Congressman, current columnist, and fellow blogger Sam Coppersmith at Liberal Desert has found gainful, if temporary employment. Of course, an opportunity for the post-transition period could come up, too.
From KVOA.com: Harry Mitchell "appointed former Arizona Congressman Sam Coppersmith to help lead his Congressional transition team."
...As has been covered elsewhere (including here), former JD opponent and another fellow blogger, Elizabeth Rogers won her race for the Kyrene JP job.
Other news of the Mitchell upset of Hayworth...
...Joanie Flatt, via AZ Congress Watch (thanks Stacy!), notes that "while J.D. won’t concede that Harry Mitchell is the Congressman-elect from CD5, apparently the Clerk of the House of Representatives sees it differently. "
Harry has to be in D.C. on Sunday for newbie orientation. Yessss!!!!
...Rush Limbaugh calls Harry a "parrot" on his radio show (it's about 2/3 of the way down the page).
Congrats to Harry for hitting the big-time. He's just been dissed by the one guy in the country who's a bigger blowhard than JD.
And a not-so-random musing...
...Does anybody else wonder if JD, when he goes looking for someone to blame for his electoral fall from grace, is going to blame the advisor who told him to disavow Russell Pearce after the "National Alliance" email? That JD is going to believe in the deepest recesses of his heart that CD5 would have re-elected him if he was just a little more extreme?
When JD finally does an honest evaluation of his campaign (if he ever does), to try to understand where to place the blame, he needs to look into a mirror before he starts pointing fingers.
...More updates as news becomes available.
Later!!
Bloggers movin' on up...
...former Congressman, current columnist, and fellow blogger Sam Coppersmith at Liberal Desert has found gainful, if temporary employment. Of course, an opportunity for the post-transition period could come up, too.
From KVOA.com: Harry Mitchell "appointed former Arizona Congressman Sam Coppersmith to help lead his Congressional transition team."
...As has been covered elsewhere (including here), former JD opponent and another fellow blogger, Elizabeth Rogers won her race for the Kyrene JP job.
Other news of the Mitchell upset of Hayworth...
...Joanie Flatt, via AZ Congress Watch (thanks Stacy!), notes that "while J.D. won’t concede that Harry Mitchell is the Congressman-elect from CD5, apparently the Clerk of the House of Representatives sees it differently. "
Harry has to be in D.C. on Sunday for newbie orientation. Yessss!!!!
...Rush Limbaugh calls Harry a "parrot" on his radio show (it's about 2/3 of the way down the page).
Congrats to Harry for hitting the big-time. He's just been dissed by the one guy in the country who's a bigger blowhard than JD.
And a not-so-random musing...
...Does anybody else wonder if JD, when he goes looking for someone to blame for his electoral fall from grace, is going to blame the advisor who told him to disavow Russell Pearce after the "National Alliance" email? That JD is going to believe in the deepest recesses of his heart that CD5 would have re-elected him if he was just a little more extreme?
When JD finally does an honest evaluation of his campaign (if he ever does), to try to understand where to place the blame, he needs to look into a mirror before he starts pointing fingers.
...More updates as news becomes available.
Later!!
Updated CD5 vote counts (not final yet)
According to what I heard today, the elections folks counted approximately 35,000 ballots today.
The new numbers, from the AZ Secretary of State's website:
Hayworth(R) 67,830 (+2,708)
Mitchell(D) 73,762 (+2,685)
Severin (L) 4,754 (+ 134)
Assuming the number of ballots counted is accurate, over the course of 35,000 ballots, JD gained on Harry by 23 votes.
That means, assuming that the overall number of ballots to be counted that I've heard about, 250,000, is correct, if the rest of the ballots fall out with the same proportions, JD will cut into Harry's lead by a net total of
164 votes.
Just for ha-has, I ran the numbers for a "worst-case scenario" related to the number of ballots counted.
I assumed that the number I have for the ballots counted today, 35,000, is inaccurate; I assumed that the only ballots counted today were the ones that fed into the totals for the CD5 candidates.
That's 5,527 (with JD netting a gain of 23 votes today).
I further assumed, for the sake of this post, that *all* 258,000 of the outstanding ballots in Maricopa County are for CD5 (they're not, but this is a worst-case scenario).
If the proportions of today's ballots hold true for the rest, JD would gain a net of 1074 votes on Harry's lead.
Harry may not be declaring victory yet, but JD should be updating his resume right about now.
The new numbers, from the AZ Secretary of State's website:
Hayworth(R) 67,830 (+2,708)
Mitchell(D) 73,762 (+2,685)
Severin (L) 4,754 (+ 134)
Assuming the number of ballots counted is accurate, over the course of 35,000 ballots, JD gained on Harry by 23 votes.
That means, assuming that the overall number of ballots to be counted that I've heard about, 250,000, is correct, if the rest of the ballots fall out with the same proportions, JD will cut into Harry's lead by a net total of
164 votes.
Just for ha-has, I ran the numbers for a "worst-case scenario" related to the number of ballots counted.
I assumed that the number I have for the ballots counted today, 35,000, is inaccurate; I assumed that the only ballots counted today were the ones that fed into the totals for the CD5 candidates.
That's 5,527 (with JD netting a gain of 23 votes today).
I further assumed, for the sake of this post, that *all* 258,000 of the outstanding ballots in Maricopa County are for CD5 (they're not, but this is a worst-case scenario).
If the proportions of today's ballots hold true for the rest, JD would gain a net of 1074 votes on Harry's lead.
Harry may not be declaring victory yet, but JD should be updating his resume right about now.
Just switched to Blogger Beta
and I'm really happy...
...that I waited until after the election to do so. For some reason, it's not publishing on LeftyBlogs.
Working on it...
Later!
...that I waited until after the election to do so. For some reason, it's not publishing on LeftyBlogs.
Working on it...
Later!
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
Election hangover...
No booze needed. :)
I don't know about you, but I'm thoroughly whipped tonight.
Monday was about the Michael J. Fox rally and phonebanking. Four hours of sleep.
Tuesday was about GOTV in Mesa, checking on a couple of local polling places (all OK - nothing "unseemly" happens in Scottsdale. Just ask the City Council.), and hours spent watching returns in Tempe. Four more hours of sleep.
Today was about getting back to a semblance of normalcy - classes and an interview for a small promotion at work (bombed it - I was as unprepared for the interview as I have ever been for anything in my life, and I'm OK with that) and helping the Mitchell campaign clean out their volunteer office in back of the main campaign office.
Tomorrow is a crash and study day (studying is something I really should do this semester, once or twice anyway. :) )
Random observations, reports, and thoughts on the election and stuff related (my brain is too fried for a coherent post on one subject)...
...Spoke to a few people today. The Mitchell campaign expects to have a clearer idea of what is happening with the vote count by Friday. Will update as information becomes available.
...Got to see Harry today. You can tell he's both excited about the apparent win and nervous about the ballot counting. You can also see that he is handling this in a calm, professional manner.
...Got to see JD on TV tonight. He's a smarmy SOB who still hasn't gotten the message. (Yeah, I know I'm biased, but that doesn't mean that I'm wrong.)
...AZ Rep report on the election and ballot count here.
...JD has an "important campaign update" on his website, but it's just in a box on the main page of the site. If you want to read it, go to his website.
...Assuming the results hold up (and there will be some serious screaming from here to D.C. if they don't), Harry will move from being one of the elder statesmen, even "legend", of Arizona politics, to being a freshman Congressman. One of many in a large incoming class (yes!!) of them.
Hope the Dem leadership in D.C. understands that in Harry's case, "freshman" isn't synonymous with "inexperienced."
...Let me say this, again assuming the results hold up...actually, even if they don't...Harry Mitchell could not have asked for a better opponent to run an uphill campaign against. He didn't need JD to make a mistake; he only needed to run the people- and issues-oriented campaign that he knows how to run and let JD be JD.
And JD cooperated fully by running a fear- and distortion-oriented campaign. Sending belligerent and offensive substitutes to a forum in a Jewish temple and openly trying to bully Harry during their meeting with the AZ Republic's editorial board would have been labeled as mistakes for any other campaign, but they were typical JD.
...Speaking of JD's style, abandoning his supporters at the Rep election-night party with nary a word of thanks when the upset became evident was utterly classless, even by his standards. In contrast, late Tuesday evening when it became apparent to the Mitchell camp that the results wouldn't be finalized that night, Harry graciously thanked his family, volunteers, and supporters.
And he did it both from the podium and in the crowd.
If JD ever wants to run for elected office again, there are some lessons for him to learn here.
...Ed Ableser, David Schapira, and the other downballot Dems in LD17 should thank Harry for their wins on Tuesday. His presence on the ballot against an almost universally disliked demagogue inspired a huge Dem turnout in the district. They worked hard, but so did the Reps. This time around, there were a lot more Democratic and Independent voters listening.
Actually, I expect that they already thanked him (they're all smart people) but it's something that the rest of us should consider. Instead of two years of watching Laura Knaperek work to further the agenda of the extremist wing of the Republican Party at the expense of the citizens of the district (and the state!), we'll have two Reps who'll fight for the district, first and foremost.
Please note that I haven't mentioned our new State Senator, Meg Burton-Cahill, yet. Let's face facts, she was probably going to win even if no Dem ran for CD5. Rose Crutcher seemed to be a decent human being, and was certainly a good candidate, but Meg would have had to do something crazy/stupid like endorse JD, to lose.
...Did this election make Nancy Pelosi golden, or what? She raised money for a lot of candidates, plus, in many races, the Republicans ran against *her* as much as the Democrat who was actually on the ballot.
And got their butts handed to them for their efforts.
I heard a rumor months ago that Steny Hoyer, the current House minority whip, was mulling a run at Speaker if the Dems took control of the House. At this point, I'd be surprised if he wasted his political capital on a fight against the virtually untouchable Pelosi.
I don't know much about either one, but personally, I'd love to see her as Speaker.
If only to watch Reps everywhere rip out their hair in frustration. :))
...The Reps probably aren't too happy with all of the pictures of a smiling Howard Dean that are all over TV and the internet tonight either.
Wonder if Gov. Dean is considering another run at the Presidency after last night?
...Oh, and thanks to fellow hard-working volunteer Peter C. for his comment with the date of this quote by Greg at the right-leaning Espresso Pundit.
On June 29th, he wrote "You will see a UFO before you see a newly elected white Democratic Congressman from Texas or Arizona. "
Ummm...I supposed he could make a case that his statement isn't false yet, because Gabrielle Giffords isn't a CongressMAN, but what about Harry?
Later!!
I don't know about you, but I'm thoroughly whipped tonight.
Monday was about the Michael J. Fox rally and phonebanking. Four hours of sleep.
Tuesday was about GOTV in Mesa, checking on a couple of local polling places (all OK - nothing "unseemly" happens in Scottsdale. Just ask the City Council.), and hours spent watching returns in Tempe. Four more hours of sleep.
Today was about getting back to a semblance of normalcy - classes and an interview for a small promotion at work (bombed it - I was as unprepared for the interview as I have ever been for anything in my life, and I'm OK with that) and helping the Mitchell campaign clean out their volunteer office in back of the main campaign office.
Tomorrow is a crash and study day (studying is something I really should do this semester, once or twice anyway. :) )
Random observations, reports, and thoughts on the election and stuff related (my brain is too fried for a coherent post on one subject)...
...Spoke to a few people today. The Mitchell campaign expects to have a clearer idea of what is happening with the vote count by Friday. Will update as information becomes available.
...Got to see Harry today. You can tell he's both excited about the apparent win and nervous about the ballot counting. You can also see that he is handling this in a calm, professional manner.
...Got to see JD on TV tonight. He's a smarmy SOB who still hasn't gotten the message. (Yeah, I know I'm biased, but that doesn't mean that I'm wrong.)
...AZ Rep report on the election and ballot count here.
...JD has an "important campaign update" on his website, but it's just in a box on the main page of the site. If you want to read it, go to his website.
...Assuming the results hold up (and there will be some serious screaming from here to D.C. if they don't), Harry will move from being one of the elder statesmen, even "legend", of Arizona politics, to being a freshman Congressman. One of many in a large incoming class (yes!!) of them.
Hope the Dem leadership in D.C. understands that in Harry's case, "freshman" isn't synonymous with "inexperienced."
...Let me say this, again assuming the results hold up...actually, even if they don't...Harry Mitchell could not have asked for a better opponent to run an uphill campaign against. He didn't need JD to make a mistake; he only needed to run the people- and issues-oriented campaign that he knows how to run and let JD be JD.
And JD cooperated fully by running a fear- and distortion-oriented campaign. Sending belligerent and offensive substitutes to a forum in a Jewish temple and openly trying to bully Harry during their meeting with the AZ Republic's editorial board would have been labeled as mistakes for any other campaign, but they were typical JD.
...Speaking of JD's style, abandoning his supporters at the Rep election-night party with nary a word of thanks when the upset became evident was utterly classless, even by his standards. In contrast, late Tuesday evening when it became apparent to the Mitchell camp that the results wouldn't be finalized that night, Harry graciously thanked his family, volunteers, and supporters.
And he did it both from the podium and in the crowd.
If JD ever wants to run for elected office again, there are some lessons for him to learn here.
...Ed Ableser, David Schapira, and the other downballot Dems in LD17 should thank Harry for their wins on Tuesday. His presence on the ballot against an almost universally disliked demagogue inspired a huge Dem turnout in the district. They worked hard, but so did the Reps. This time around, there were a lot more Democratic and Independent voters listening.
Actually, I expect that they already thanked him (they're all smart people) but it's something that the rest of us should consider. Instead of two years of watching Laura Knaperek work to further the agenda of the extremist wing of the Republican Party at the expense of the citizens of the district (and the state!), we'll have two Reps who'll fight for the district, first and foremost.
Please note that I haven't mentioned our new State Senator, Meg Burton-Cahill, yet. Let's face facts, she was probably going to win even if no Dem ran for CD5. Rose Crutcher seemed to be a decent human being, and was certainly a good candidate, but Meg would have had to do something crazy/stupid like endorse JD, to lose.
...Did this election make Nancy Pelosi golden, or what? She raised money for a lot of candidates, plus, in many races, the Republicans ran against *her* as much as the Democrat who was actually on the ballot.
And got their butts handed to them for their efforts.
I heard a rumor months ago that Steny Hoyer, the current House minority whip, was mulling a run at Speaker if the Dems took control of the House. At this point, I'd be surprised if he wasted his political capital on a fight against the virtually untouchable Pelosi.
I don't know much about either one, but personally, I'd love to see her as Speaker.
If only to watch Reps everywhere rip out their hair in frustration. :))
...The Reps probably aren't too happy with all of the pictures of a smiling Howard Dean that are all over TV and the internet tonight either.
Wonder if Gov. Dean is considering another run at the Presidency after last night?
...Oh, and thanks to fellow hard-working volunteer Peter C. for his comment with the date of this quote by Greg at the right-leaning Espresso Pundit.
On June 29th, he wrote "You will see a UFO before you see a newly elected white Democratic Congressman from Texas or Arizona. "
Ummm...I supposed he could make a case that his statement isn't false yet, because Gabrielle Giffords isn't a CongressMAN, but what about Harry?
Later!!
It may not be over for JD
but the proverbial fat lady is clearing her throat.
In the most important news in America today, it came out that Britney Spears is divorcing her husband, Kevin Federline.
Federline is demanding a recount. :)
Back to the real news (unfortunately, there are a lot of people in our country that consider the Spears news to be more important. Fortunately, none of them read this blog. :) )
...Just got back from the Mitchell campaign's election return party, an intimate little affair for 2000 of his closest staffers, volunteers, supporters, and friends.
First the good, almost great news -
Courtesy of the AZ Secretary of State's website:
As of 1:28 a.m., with 100% of precincts reporting, Harry Mitchell has 71,077 votes; Hayworth has 65,122.
Nobody is calling this race yet; it's close enough that provisional ballots could make a difference.
Harry isn't proclaiming victory; and we all know JD won't ever admit that he lost.
As I said at the party, JD won't concede until the U.S. Capitol Police padlock his office and drag him kicking and screaming out of the building.
Of course, as Geo of Geo's Precinct 134 observed, "It's better to be in Harry's position instead of JD's."
Ain't that the truth.
It's looking good right now, but things are still happening. More on this tomorrow.
Good things about the day, and the party afterward -
...Had the opportunity to meet fellow bloggers Geo and Tim and Zelph of AZNetRoots. It was great to be able to put faces with the names and the great writing that we all have read this election season.
...State House candidates Ed Ableser and David Schapira, along with State Senate candidate Meg Burton-Cahill, made LD17 A CLEAN SWEEP FOR THE DEMOCRATS!! Whooo Hooooo!!!!!!
They sent Laura Knaperek to retirement!!!!!!! Yesssss!!!!!
...In races from farther down the ballot, Jon Levenson and fellow blogger Elizabeth Rogers won the Constable and Justice of the Peace races for the Kyrene Justice Precinct (formerly Tempe East) respectively.
Credit positive messages and a LOT of hard work by both of them for this.
...Governor Napolitano and Attorney General Goddard both comfortably won reelection. No shocks there, but it was still nice to see.
...In CD8, Gabrielle Giffords posted a solid victory in the race for the U.S. House seat vacated by Republican Jim Kolbe.
...Prop 107 (anti-same sex marriage and unwed couples of any combination) looks like it's on it's way to defeat, and Prop 202 (raise the minimum wage) looks like it's going to pass.
There were some disappointments, too.
...LD8 went totally Republican. Not a huge surprise considering the Republican registration advantage, but North Scottsdale Reps are, generally speaking, moderate (at least by Rep standards). I thought there was a chance that Dan Oseran for State Senate and especially Stephanie Rimmer for State Rep could create an upset, but it wasn't meant to be.
...The down-ballot statewide races also went Republican. Again, nothing surprising, but I sort of hoped that after the ethics issues of incumbent David Petersen that even Republicans would hesitate to vote for another ethically-deficient candidate.
...Russell "National Alliance" Pearce won reelection to the State House. Ugh.
...and in the "Biggest Reason To Be Ashamed That I'm An Arizonan" category - every single ballot measure that attacks illegal immigrants won. Most of the measures were just vicious bigotry.
It's been a long day, and it's time for bed.
More on Harry Mitchell's quest to send JD into the fog of political history later today, as well as analysis of the day in Arizona and national politics.
Good night!!
In the most important news in America today, it came out that Britney Spears is divorcing her husband, Kevin Federline.
Federline is demanding a recount. :)
Back to the real news (unfortunately, there are a lot of people in our country that consider the Spears news to be more important. Fortunately, none of them read this blog. :) )
...Just got back from the Mitchell campaign's election return party, an intimate little affair for 2000 of his closest staffers, volunteers, supporters, and friends.
First the good, almost great news -
Courtesy of the AZ Secretary of State's website:
As of 1:28 a.m., with 100% of precincts reporting, Harry Mitchell has 71,077 votes; Hayworth has 65,122.
Nobody is calling this race yet; it's close enough that provisional ballots could make a difference.
Harry isn't proclaiming victory; and we all know JD won't ever admit that he lost.
As I said at the party, JD won't concede until the U.S. Capitol Police padlock his office and drag him kicking and screaming out of the building.
Of course, as Geo of Geo's Precinct 134 observed, "It's better to be in Harry's position instead of JD's."
Ain't that the truth.
It's looking good right now, but things are still happening. More on this tomorrow.
Good things about the day, and the party afterward -
...Had the opportunity to meet fellow bloggers Geo and Tim and Zelph of AZNetRoots. It was great to be able to put faces with the names and the great writing that we all have read this election season.
...State House candidates Ed Ableser and David Schapira, along with State Senate candidate Meg Burton-Cahill, made LD17 A CLEAN SWEEP FOR THE DEMOCRATS!! Whooo Hooooo!!!!!!
They sent Laura Knaperek to retirement!!!!!!! Yesssss!!!!!
...In races from farther down the ballot, Jon Levenson and fellow blogger Elizabeth Rogers won the Constable and Justice of the Peace races for the Kyrene Justice Precinct (formerly Tempe East) respectively.
Credit positive messages and a LOT of hard work by both of them for this.
...Governor Napolitano and Attorney General Goddard both comfortably won reelection. No shocks there, but it was still nice to see.
...In CD8, Gabrielle Giffords posted a solid victory in the race for the U.S. House seat vacated by Republican Jim Kolbe.
...Prop 107 (anti-same sex marriage and unwed couples of any combination) looks like it's on it's way to defeat, and Prop 202 (raise the minimum wage) looks like it's going to pass.
There were some disappointments, too.
...LD8 went totally Republican. Not a huge surprise considering the Republican registration advantage, but North Scottsdale Reps are, generally speaking, moderate (at least by Rep standards). I thought there was a chance that Dan Oseran for State Senate and especially Stephanie Rimmer for State Rep could create an upset, but it wasn't meant to be.
...The down-ballot statewide races also went Republican. Again, nothing surprising, but I sort of hoped that after the ethics issues of incumbent David Petersen that even Republicans would hesitate to vote for another ethically-deficient candidate.
...Russell "National Alliance" Pearce won reelection to the State House. Ugh.
...and in the "Biggest Reason To Be Ashamed That I'm An Arizonan" category - every single ballot measure that attacks illegal immigrants won. Most of the measures were just vicious bigotry.
It's been a long day, and it's time for bed.
More on Harry Mitchell's quest to send JD into the fog of political history later today, as well as analysis of the day in Arizona and national politics.
Good night!!
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
What else is there to say?
The choice is between two years of bullying and bile with Hayworth or two years of coalition- and bridge-building with Mitchell.
Vote.
The choice is between four years of extremist ideology overruling reality from Munsil or four more years of progress and professionalism from Napolitano.
Vote.
The choice is six more years of a quiet betrayal of Arizona's voters and the Constitution from Kyl or six years of a new direction that includes having a Senator that truly represents Arizona, not the White House, in Pederson.
Vote.
Every campaign and the Democratic Party has a Get Out The Vote effort tomorrow. If you have even an hour to spare, volunteer to help.
Vote.
My next post will be my 200th, and I want it to be a celebratory one, so...
Vote.
Vote.
The choice is between four years of extremist ideology overruling reality from Munsil or four more years of progress and professionalism from Napolitano.
Vote.
The choice is six more years of a quiet betrayal of Arizona's voters and the Constitution from Kyl or six years of a new direction that includes having a Senator that truly represents Arizona, not the White House, in Pederson.
Vote.
Every campaign and the Democratic Party has a Get Out The Vote effort tomorrow. If you have even an hour to spare, volunteer to help.
Vote.
My next post will be my 200th, and I want it to be a celebratory one, so...
Vote.
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