And the whole "Short Attention Span" motif continues... :)
...Perhaps the bloodiest races in the state this year won't be a legislative or congressional race, or even one of the Corporation Commission races - they're going to be in the races for Republican PC in LD11. There will be competitive races in 45 of the 83 precincts in the district. In most LDs, folks at both major parties are happy if they just have PCs in that high a percentage of precincts; there usually aren't more than a few precincts that have candidates competing for the slots. To illustrate this phenomenon just look at the same list from the Maricopa County Recorder's Office - in the overwhelmingly Democratic LD16, there are only 4 precincts (out of 45) where there are competitive races for Democratic Party PC slots.
Of course, LD11 is the center of the anti-McCain Republican universe; most of the precinct races there can be broken down into an anti-McCain ticket and a pro-McCain ticket.
Is it possible for both tickets to lose?? :))
Anyway, should be fun to watch...if you're a Democrat.
...Bob Lord, the Democratic challenger to John Shadegg in CD3, has been getting beaucoup love nationally.
First, DailyKos added him to their "Orange to Blue" fundraising program.
Then, he was added to the DCCC's "Red to Blue" program, a program that raised an average of $400K per candidate in 2006.
Finally, the non-partisan Cook Political Report changed it rating of the CD3 race, upgrading Lord's chances of election. The race had been rated "Solid Republican"; it's now rated as "Likely Republican."
That may not sound significant, but in 2006, CD5 was rated as "Likely Republican" until late in the race.
Like when the results came in, and Harry Mitchell had sent JD Hayworth to the electoral showers.
...Went to the monthly meeting of the Community Council of Scottsdale on Thursday night. They had two candidates for City Council speaking to them, Tom Giller and Oren Davis. I'd seen Mr. Giller at different neighborhood/community meetings and at a couple of City Council meetings but it was my first opportunity to hear Mr. Davis.
He actually did well; he's a political rookie (and it showed with his speaking style) but he also showed an honesty and directness that is fairly rare in politics these days - he actually spoke to a hostile crowd and didn't try to pander. He probably didn't win any votes at the meeting, not even mine (I'm never sold on a candidate the first time I see him/her in action.) However, he didn't talk himself into the "No way in hell could I ever vote for him" category, either.
...Congratulations!! to ManEegee on receiving a scholarship to Netroots Nation (formerly YearlyKos) in Austin in July. Looks like Tedski (he of the Democratic convention media credentials) isn't the only AZ blogger gettin' some respect beyond the land of cactus needles and dust storms.
...In the "interesting visitors" department, at 3:58.47 p.m. on Thursday, this blog received an unexpected hit from the AZ Republican Party (IP address - 68.14.244.235). The fact that a GOPer was checking out my blog wasn't a surprise (that's just monitoring what is being said in the blogosphere, and that's just standard practice these days). What was surprising was how they found my blog.
They Googled "voter reg trends", and found this post.
Ummm...I'm not exactly a party insider, and I'm definitely not a Republican Party insider (yeah, so I'm a master at stating the obvious :) ), but I know that voter reg trends are pored over, parsed, and dissected by some of the best minds at both major parties, and in far more depth than can be done by one man with a spreadsheet program.
So why use Google to find someone else's analysis?
...And in the "am I a raging cynic or what?" category, George Bush has promised immediate aid for flood-stricken residents of Iowa and other midwestern states.
Sooooo...am I the only one who's noticed that Iowa's population tends to be paler and more likely to vote Republican in November than the population of the Katrina-afflicted New Orleans and the Gulf Coast?
Timely disaster relief should never be based on electoral or racial considerations.
Any other question?
Later!
Showing posts with label Hayworth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hayworth. Show all posts
Friday, June 20, 2008
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Mitchell leads main Republican rivals in latest poll
PolitickerAZ has the results of a recent CD5 poll comparing Congressman Harry Mitchell to two of the Republican candidates trying to unseat him, former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert and former state representative Laura Knaperek.
(Marty at Wactivist.com and Zelph at AZNetRoots already have their takes on the info, at the links)
According to the PolitickerAZ story, in head-to-head matchups, Mitchell leads Schweikert by a 50% to 23% margin and Knaperek by 49% to 26%.
This is great news for Mitchell and his supporters because while this year shapes up to be a horrible year for Republicans in general, they still have a serious registration advantage in CD5 (42% - 28%). For this cycle and the next (2010) CD5 is going to be a tough test for any Democrat, even Harry Mitchell.
In 2012, the effects of redistricting should be felt, but God only knows what those are going to be (and God won't know what those are until the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission tells Him what they are :) ).
Until then, however, CD5 is going to be a tempting target for every Republican who's ever run a campaign (or, like Jim Ogsbury, who's ever just given money to a campaign.)
As for this year's campaign, in Marty's post over at Wactivist, he opines that Laura Knaperek may be the Reps' best hope to defeat Mitchell, but I'm not sure I agree.
She *does* have the organization and the experience to run an effective general election campaign, a fact that CD5 Republican primary voters will remember, but she also has experience in running campaigns that were defeated by Harry Mitchell.
Another fact that primary voters will be sure to remember.
She also has high negatives, in that she is part of the radical right wing segment of her party, and while there are a lot of Republicans in CD5, they tend to be part of the "Chamber of Commerce" wing.
She's probably not getting out of the primary, though with her experience and focus (OK, it's less 'focus' and more 'obsession' on Harry Mitchell) she will make a fight of it.
David Schweikert may not have raised as much money as the RNCC poo-bahs would prefer, he still presents the lower negatives of the two - he's as reliably conservative as Knaperek but hasn't ticked off as many people over the years as she has (her habit of throwing ballot-mates in legislative races under the bus at the earliest opportunity could come back to haunt her.)
And Jim Ogsbury and Mark Anderson? Professional lobbyist Ogsbury has serious name rec problems in the district, as does Mesa state rep Anderson. In addition, Anderson is running on a platform that includes the planks that Congress "has too much partisan bickering" and "too many scandals."
Somebody should remind him that it's not 2006 and he's not running against JD Hayworth.
Anyway, I haven't seen anything that indicates that Anderson or Ogsbury have a real chance to win this year's CD5 Republican primary.
The American Hospital Association, the sponsor of the poll, apparently agree with me - their poll didn't include either Ogsbury or Anderson.
Later!
(Marty at Wactivist.com and Zelph at AZNetRoots already have their takes on the info, at the links)
According to the PolitickerAZ story, in head-to-head matchups, Mitchell leads Schweikert by a 50% to 23% margin and Knaperek by 49% to 26%.
This is great news for Mitchell and his supporters because while this year shapes up to be a horrible year for Republicans in general, they still have a serious registration advantage in CD5 (42% - 28%). For this cycle and the next (2010) CD5 is going to be a tough test for any Democrat, even Harry Mitchell.
In 2012, the effects of redistricting should be felt, but God only knows what those are going to be (and God won't know what those are until the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission tells Him what they are :) ).
Until then, however, CD5 is going to be a tempting target for every Republican who's ever run a campaign (or, like Jim Ogsbury, who's ever just given money to a campaign.)
As for this year's campaign, in Marty's post over at Wactivist, he opines that Laura Knaperek may be the Reps' best hope to defeat Mitchell, but I'm not sure I agree.
She *does* have the organization and the experience to run an effective general election campaign, a fact that CD5 Republican primary voters will remember, but she also has experience in running campaigns that were defeated by Harry Mitchell.
Another fact that primary voters will be sure to remember.
She also has high negatives, in that she is part of the radical right wing segment of her party, and while there are a lot of Republicans in CD5, they tend to be part of the "Chamber of Commerce" wing.
She's probably not getting out of the primary, though with her experience and focus (OK, it's less 'focus' and more 'obsession' on Harry Mitchell) she will make a fight of it.
David Schweikert may not have raised as much money as the RNCC poo-bahs would prefer, he still presents the lower negatives of the two - he's as reliably conservative as Knaperek but hasn't ticked off as many people over the years as she has (her habit of throwing ballot-mates in legislative races under the bus at the earliest opportunity could come back to haunt her.)
And Jim Ogsbury and Mark Anderson? Professional lobbyist Ogsbury has serious name rec problems in the district, as does Mesa state rep Anderson. In addition, Anderson is running on a platform that includes the planks that Congress "has too much partisan bickering" and "too many scandals."
Somebody should remind him that it's not 2006 and he's not running against JD Hayworth.
Anyway, I haven't seen anything that indicates that Anderson or Ogsbury have a real chance to win this year's CD5 Republican primary.
The American Hospital Association, the sponsor of the poll, apparently agree with me - their poll didn't include either Ogsbury or Anderson.
Later!
Friday, March 28, 2008
I pledge...
The AZ Rep has a *special* article on its website, a heartrending tale of woe, a heartfelt plea for help.
The article chronicles the plight of nativist former Congressman-turned-radio-talk-show-blowhard JD Hayworth, who still faces hundreds of thousands of dollars in legal bills stemming from his fight against a federal corruption investigation.
The AZ Rep article cites as a source an entry in Hayworth's personal blog (http://www.jdhayworth.com/blog/?p=33).
The blog entry puts forth Hayworth's argument that he was unjustly accused and smeared for political purposes, and that while he has been 'vindicated', he incurred large bills to defend himself. Now that he isn't an elected official receiving regular contributions, his campaign coffers are empty and can no longer be used to pay those legal bills.
He sort of glosses over the fact that it was campaign contributions, particularly those from imprisoned lobbyist Jack Abramoff and his friends, that got him in trouble in the first place, but I digress... :)
Anyway, Hayworth's plea moved me, deeply.
I can't afford to give him money right now (he graciously advised/hinted to his supporters of the IRS's gift limits of $12,000 per person/$24,000 married couple), I can make this pledge.
Thanks to JD's eloquent cry for help, I hereby pledge that if he is eventually convicted and imprisoned, I will send him...
Letters.
Yup, I'll become his pen pal. (Rather thoughtful of me, isn't it? LOL)
All sarcasm aside, if he or any other reader wants to read about an investigation, conviction, and imprisonment that truly *was* politically motivated, read about the plight of Don Siegelman, former governor of Alabama.
If anything that has happened in the last 7+ years that will put Karl Rove behind bars, what he and the Bush-run Justice Department did to Gov. Siegelman will be it.
Later!
The article chronicles the plight of nativist former Congressman-turned-radio-talk-show-blowhard JD Hayworth, who still faces hundreds of thousands of dollars in legal bills stemming from his fight against a federal corruption investigation.
The AZ Rep article cites as a source an entry in Hayworth's personal blog (http://www.jdhayworth.com/blog/?p=33).
The blog entry puts forth Hayworth's argument that he was unjustly accused and smeared for political purposes, and that while he has been 'vindicated', he incurred large bills to defend himself. Now that he isn't an elected official receiving regular contributions, his campaign coffers are empty and can no longer be used to pay those legal bills.
He sort of glosses over the fact that it was campaign contributions, particularly those from imprisoned lobbyist Jack Abramoff and his friends, that got him in trouble in the first place, but I digress... :)
Anyway, Hayworth's plea moved me, deeply.
I can't afford to give him money right now (he graciously advised/hinted to his supporters of the IRS's gift limits of $12,000 per person/$24,000 married couple), I can make this pledge.
Thanks to JD's eloquent cry for help, I hereby pledge that if he is eventually convicted and imprisoned, I will send him...
Letters.
Yup, I'll become his pen pal. (Rather thoughtful of me, isn't it? LOL)
All sarcasm aside, if he or any other reader wants to read about an investigation, conviction, and imprisonment that truly *was* politically motivated, read about the plight of Don Siegelman, former governor of Alabama.
If anything that has happened in the last 7+ years that will put Karl Rove behind bars, what he and the Bush-run Justice Department did to Gov. Siegelman will be it.
Later!
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Another corporate lobbyist "explores" challenge to Harry Mitchell
In a long-expected development, telecom lobbyist Susan Bitter-Smith has announced the establishment of an exploratory committee for the race for CD5 Republican nomination.
Her announcement can be found here.
In her announcement, she cites her experience as a member of the Scottsdale City Council and Central Arizona Water Conservation District (CAWCD).
Not mentioned or even hinted at is her long-time job as director of the Arizona Cable Telecommunications Association, an industry lobbying group.
While the lateness her pseudo-entry into the race makes it tougher for her (the other Rep candidates in CD5 have had time to bank contributions and lock up endorsements), however, she will be well-funded by her clients and is sure to have the backing of GOP Chamber of Commerce types like Virginia Korte.
Evaluation: She could make an impact on the race with her money and her ties in north Scottsdale. Working against her are the facts that she has almost no visibility in the Tempe part of the district and the fact that even Republicans aren't too enamored with lobbyists these days.
Caveat: take any of my speculations on the mindsets of Republicans with a grain of salt (maybe the whole salt mine!) - I'm not a Republican...not even close.
...In the category of "Interesting 2006 Replay" - the press contact listed on the announcement press release, Brian Hummell, seemed familiar. Turns out that he is a lobbyist too, sometimes representing organizations such as the Arizona Film and Media Coalition before the AZ legislature.
And the "2006" part?
He was JD Hayworth's spokesman that year. :)))
Her announcement can be found here.
In her announcement, she cites her experience as a member of the Scottsdale City Council and Central Arizona Water Conservation District (CAWCD).
Not mentioned or even hinted at is her long-time job as director of the Arizona Cable Telecommunications Association, an industry lobbying group.
While the lateness her pseudo-entry into the race makes it tougher for her (the other Rep candidates in CD5 have had time to bank contributions and lock up endorsements), however, she will be well-funded by her clients and is sure to have the backing of GOP Chamber of Commerce types like Virginia Korte.
Evaluation: She could make an impact on the race with her money and her ties in north Scottsdale. Working against her are the facts that she has almost no visibility in the Tempe part of the district and the fact that even Republicans aren't too enamored with lobbyists these days.
Caveat: take any of my speculations on the mindsets of Republicans with a grain of salt (maybe the whole salt mine!) - I'm not a Republican...not even close.
...In the category of "Interesting 2006 Replay" - the press contact listed on the announcement press release, Brian Hummell, seemed familiar. Turns out that he is a lobbyist too, sometimes representing organizations such as the Arizona Film and Media Coalition before the AZ legislature.
And the "2006" part?
He was JD Hayworth's spokesman that year. :)))
Friday, February 01, 2008
John Shadegg: Star Pupil at the Hayworth School of Campaigning?
One can only hope that Shadegg keeps serving up BP fastballs like this to the Lord campaign...
Congressman John Shadegg (R-Launderer) is now attributing his opposition to the recently-passed (by the House anyway) economic stimulus package because some of the proposed tax rebates might go to undocumented aliens who dared to work, pay income taxes, and file a return.
Now, I'm not exactly a fan of the proposal (it helps retail businesses more than it helps real people and its effects are short-term, not long-term), but he absolutely opposes an effort to mitigate the effects of the burgeoning recession in the U.S. because it could give some undocumented aliens some of their own money?
Yup, that's right - the tax rebates are just prepayments of refunds, essentially; they will reduce the following year's refund/increase the amount owed for each recipient.
And the ever-vigilant John Shadegg detected the harm in giving hardworking people the money that is theirs (whether or not they're in the U.S. legally, they earned the money), so he tried to make sure that no one would be helped.
Even if stealing the tax money of a few undocumented immigrants was an ethical activity (it's not), are there so many that qualify (by paying taxs of all things - what scofflaws! ;) ) that the numbers justify blocking the whole thing?
Of course, this is the guy who left his constituents in the lurch, campaigning for John McCain in South Carolina while Paradise Valley residents dealt with poison coming out of their faucets and one of the guys who voted against HOPE.
Why do I have the suspicion that it's people in general who are on his hit list, and immigrants are just a cover story for his votes and [in]actions?
I guess that with JD Hayworth exiled to the nether regions of the right-wing talk radio, AZ's Republicans need a candidate with a with a campaign platform plank that says "blame brown people for everything." Must be in their state party's bylaws or something. :))
Hope that tactic works as well for Shadegg in 2008 as it did Hayworth in 2006.
Stacy at AZ CongressWatch has most (or all?) of Shadegg's press release here; the Phoenix Business Journal has a story constructed from that press release here.
Later!
Congressman John Shadegg (R-Launderer) is now attributing his opposition to the recently-passed (by the House anyway) economic stimulus package because some of the proposed tax rebates might go to undocumented aliens who dared to work, pay income taxes, and file a return.
Now, I'm not exactly a fan of the proposal (it helps retail businesses more than it helps real people and its effects are short-term, not long-term), but he absolutely opposes an effort to mitigate the effects of the burgeoning recession in the U.S. because it could give some undocumented aliens some of their own money?
Yup, that's right - the tax rebates are just prepayments of refunds, essentially; they will reduce the following year's refund/increase the amount owed for each recipient.
And the ever-vigilant John Shadegg detected the harm in giving hardworking people the money that is theirs (whether or not they're in the U.S. legally, they earned the money), so he tried to make sure that no one would be helped.
Even if stealing the tax money of a few undocumented immigrants was an ethical activity (it's not), are there so many that qualify (by paying taxs of all things - what scofflaws! ;) ) that the numbers justify blocking the whole thing?
Of course, this is the guy who left his constituents in the lurch, campaigning for John McCain in South Carolina while Paradise Valley residents dealt with poison coming out of their faucets and one of the guys who voted against HOPE.
Why do I have the suspicion that it's people in general who are on his hit list, and immigrants are just a cover story for his votes and [in]actions?
I guess that with JD Hayworth exiled to the nether regions of the right-wing talk radio, AZ's Republicans need a candidate with a with a campaign platform plank that says "blame brown people for everything." Must be in their state party's bylaws or something. :))
Hope that tactic works as well for Shadegg in 2008 as it did Hayworth in 2006.
Stacy at AZ CongressWatch has most (or all?) of Shadegg's press release here; the Phoenix Business Journal has a story constructed from that press release here.
Later!
Monday, November 12, 2007
Can John Thrasher defeat Trent Franks? It's more likely than you might think...
Trent Franks has been getting a lot of visibility recently, but he may learn that a higher profile isn't all that it's kicked up to be...
I know that the CD2 race between incumbent Republican Trent Franks and Democratic challenger John Thrasher doesn't have the visibility that the CD3 race (incumbent Republican John Shadegg vs. the well-funded challenger Bob Lord), but I hope that no one writes it off - there are some significant parallels between the 2008 race in CD2 and the 2006 CD5 victory by Harry Mitchell over JD Hayworth.
1. In CD5 in 2006 the Republicans have a seemingly overwhelming 16-point registration advantage that isn't so overwhelming when you realize that Independent swing voters make up a large and ever-growing portion of the CD2 electorate.
Just like CD5 in 2006.
2. Trent Franks is a one-issue wing-nut. His issue is abortion - just this year, he has voted against SCHIP because it doesn't protect fetuses (or somesuch nuttery; video at the link), argued in favor of torture because Congress hasn't passed any laws protecting fetuses (guess only unborn people have rights; born people can stick their heads between their legs and kiss their butts goodbye - after they've been waterboarded, baked, frozen, beaten, electrocuted, starved, sleep-deprived, etc.), engaged in multiple rants on the House floor on the topic (October 25, July 19, April 18), cosponsored at least nine bills on the subject (HRes705, HR63, HR618, HR1063, HR1295, HR1457, HR3192, HR3442, HR4133), issued press releases on the subject of abortion (October 24), and gives speeches on the topic (November 4).
In short, he's just like JD Hayworth, substituting a hatred for a woman's right to choose with Hayworth's hatred of immigrants.
And by the end of last year's campaign, people were asking Hayworth "ok, enough on the immigration...what else ya got" and finding that he was an empty suit who didn't have anything else to offer the district.
3. John Thrasher has a well-documented track record of community involvement and education. While his 'community involvement' hasn't included a history of elected office that compares to CD5's Harry Mitchell (city council, mayor, state senate), his career as a teacher may be as significant - last year it seemed that at every event, as many people came up to Harry talking about how he taught them, their siblings, or their children, as did those who came up to him with political story.
Bottom line: students grow up into voters in CD2, just like in CD5.
Oh, and did I mention that while *John* Thrasher may not hold public office, his wife *Jackie* knows a thing or two about upsetting an incumbent Republican with a strong registration advantage. She forced Doug Quelland, seatmate of state House Speaker Jim Weiers, out of office last year.
Bet she might have some insights to offer. :)
Ultimately, while John Thrasher may not be the kind of polished corporate candidate favored by the DCCC and Chris Van Hollen (and his predecessor Rahm Emanuel), his candidacy may present a greater challenge for Franks than Bob Lord's does for John Shadegg. Thrasher is the kind of community icon who, even as an underdog, energizes a race, something that's needed for an uphill fight.
Just like CD5 in 2006.
I know that the CD2 race between incumbent Republican Trent Franks and Democratic challenger John Thrasher doesn't have the visibility that the CD3 race (incumbent Republican John Shadegg vs. the well-funded challenger Bob Lord), but I hope that no one writes it off - there are some significant parallels between the 2008 race in CD2 and the 2006 CD5 victory by Harry Mitchell over JD Hayworth.
1. In CD5 in 2006 the Republicans have a seemingly overwhelming 16-point registration advantage that isn't so overwhelming when you realize that Independent swing voters make up a large and ever-growing portion of the CD2 electorate.
Just like CD5 in 2006.
2. Trent Franks is a one-issue wing-nut. His issue is abortion - just this year, he has voted against SCHIP because it doesn't protect fetuses (or somesuch nuttery; video at the link), argued in favor of torture because Congress hasn't passed any laws protecting fetuses (guess only unborn people have rights; born people can stick their heads between their legs and kiss their butts goodbye - after they've been waterboarded, baked, frozen, beaten, electrocuted, starved, sleep-deprived, etc.), engaged in multiple rants on the House floor on the topic (October 25, July 19, April 18), cosponsored at least nine bills on the subject (HRes705, HR63, HR618, HR1063, HR1295, HR1457, HR3192, HR3442, HR4133), issued press releases on the subject of abortion (October 24), and gives speeches on the topic (November 4).
In short, he's just like JD Hayworth, substituting a hatred for a woman's right to choose with Hayworth's hatred of immigrants.
And by the end of last year's campaign, people were asking Hayworth "ok, enough on the immigration...what else ya got" and finding that he was an empty suit who didn't have anything else to offer the district.
3. John Thrasher has a well-documented track record of community involvement and education. While his 'community involvement' hasn't included a history of elected office that compares to CD5's Harry Mitchell (city council, mayor, state senate), his career as a teacher may be as significant - last year it seemed that at every event, as many people came up to Harry talking about how he taught them, their siblings, or their children, as did those who came up to him with political story.
Bottom line: students grow up into voters in CD2, just like in CD5.
Oh, and did I mention that while *John* Thrasher may not hold public office, his wife *Jackie* knows a thing or two about upsetting an incumbent Republican with a strong registration advantage. She forced Doug Quelland, seatmate of state House Speaker Jim Weiers, out of office last year.
Bet she might have some insights to offer. :)
Ultimately, while John Thrasher may not be the kind of polished corporate candidate favored by the DCCC and Chris Van Hollen (and his predecessor Rahm Emanuel), his candidacy may present a greater challenge for Franks than Bob Lord's does for John Shadegg. Thrasher is the kind of community icon who, even as an underdog, energizes a race, something that's needed for an uphill fight.
Just like CD5 in 2006.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Quarterly FEC reports - updated
Updated on 10/16 with every incumbent now reporting; many of those who are just 'exploring' haven't filed yet. Many of those, because of the timing of their organization, won't *have* to report until after the first of the year.
Key: Candidate name, affiliation ( * signifies incumbents) - total contributions, PAC and other committee $, individual contributions, cash on hand
CD1
Rick Renzi, Republican* - $1,200; $1,000; $200; $2,085.59
Note: Renzi still owes over $100K in legal fees from earlier in the year.
Ann Kirkpatrick, Democrat - $217,050.00; $1,000; $216,050.00; $173,227.81
Sydney Hay, Republican - $57,933.81; $0; $57,933.81; $106,267.60
Note: $50,000 of Ms. Hay's fundraising came in the form of a loan to the campaign by the candidate.
Howard Shanker, Democrat - $18,160.24; $0; $18,160.24; $9,367.88
Note: $2,586.34 of his total came from the candidate and the campaign owes $9,300 on a credit card.
Ellen Simon, Democrat - $1,550.00; $0; $1,550.00; $4.41
Note: All $1,550 of Ms. Simon's funds came from the candidate herself.
CD1 note: To borrow a phrase from the film "Bull Durham" - Ms. Kirkpatrick has "announced [her] presence with authority." Her strong quarter sends a loud message both to potential Democratic primary opponents and potential Republican opposition in the general. Her candidacy is for real, and anyone thinking of jumping into the race (either side of the aisle) better be prepared for the long haul.
CD2
Trent Franks, Republican* - $49563.00, $23,500, $26,063.00, $72,153.87
John Thrasher, Democrat - $2,218.51; $0; $2,215.00; $3,619.87
CD3
Bob Lord, Democrat - $142,133.52; $5,000.00; $137,133.52; $332,189.52
John Shadegg, Republican* - $192,653.00; $36,400.00; $156,253.00; $450,930.26
Annie Loyd, Independent - $12,139.24; 0; $12,139.24; $5,001.16
Bob Stump, Republican - $0; $0; $0; $13,484.68
CD3 notes: You know that Independent Loyd has an uphill fight when the numbers show that her active campaign has less cash on hand than the inactive (for many years) campaign of Republican Stump. Also, the Lord campaign seems to have legs; while the incumbent Shadegg has outraised him and leads in COH, the differences are fairly insignificant, especially when the majority of the fundraising difference is rooted in Shadegg's advantage in PAC money.
This one is going to be a real race and one to keep an eye on.
Note on the note - Mr. Lord will be speaking at the next meeting of the Arizona chapter of the National Jewish Democratic on next Thursday. More on that in my "events calendar" post later this week.
CD4
Ed Pastor, Democrat* - $53,935.94; $39,190.94; $14,745.00; $1,229,812.71
CD5
Harry Mitchell, Democrat* - $354,638.52; $140,470.52; $214,168.00
Laura Knaperek, Republican - $30,700.00; $0; $30,700.00; $28,846.25
JD Hayworth, Republican - $0; $0; $0, $20,279.70
Larry King, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $0
CD5 Note: Laura Knaperek's max contributors ($4600) include Ken Kendrick, owner of the Diamondbacks, and Randy Kendrick, lawyer. Other contributors include Nathan Sproul (Arizona's version of Karl Rove) and his wife Tiffani, who gave $2300 each.
CD6
Jeff Flake, Republican - $225,765.78; $22,500.00; $203,265.78; $749,738.38
CD7
Raul Grijalva, Democrat* - $63,122.02; $0; $63,122.02; $94,425.00
CD8
Eva Bacal, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $2,957.80
Tim Bee, Republican - $134,620.00; $0; $134,620.00; $119,316.25
Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat* - $257,800.05; $96,548.41; $161,251.64; $1,126,838.82
Note: Giffords' info has been corrected by an update; a previous "October" report that was filed in September is NOT the October quarterly report. Oops - I should've caught that in my original post. :(
CD8 note: With a cash on hand total that is slightly more than 10% of Gabrielle Giffords', the fundraising effort of sitting State Senate President Bee can only be termed as "disappointing" for the Republicans.
Of course, I'm a Democrat. :)))))
Yet another note: Some other blogs have reported numbers for other candidates (Sonoran Alliance post on the Ogsbury campaign in CD5 here) but until the FEC posts them, I won't list them. I'm not saying that SA has it wrong (their source is an email from the campaign, which is good enough for me) but I want to be consistent. The numbers that candidates tout to their supporters can be different than the ones they report to the FEC.
The FEC numbers count more. :))
A Sonoran Alliance post on the significance of the numbers in CD5 and CD8 here.
A Sustainablity, Equity, Development post on CD8 is here.
Later!
Key: Candidate name, affiliation ( * signifies incumbents) - total contributions, PAC and other committee $, individual contributions, cash on hand
CD1
Rick Renzi, Republican* - $1,200; $1,000; $200; $2,085.59
Note: Renzi still owes over $100K in legal fees from earlier in the year.
Ann Kirkpatrick, Democrat - $217,050.00; $1,000; $216,050.00; $173,227.81
Sydney Hay, Republican - $57,933.81; $0; $57,933.81; $106,267.60
Note: $50,000 of Ms. Hay's fundraising came in the form of a loan to the campaign by the candidate.
Howard Shanker, Democrat - $18,160.24; $0; $18,160.24; $9,367.88
Note: $2,586.34 of his total came from the candidate and the campaign owes $9,300 on a credit card.
Ellen Simon, Democrat - $1,550.00; $0; $1,550.00; $4.41
Note: All $1,550 of Ms. Simon's funds came from the candidate herself.
CD1 note: To borrow a phrase from the film "Bull Durham" - Ms. Kirkpatrick has "announced [her] presence with authority." Her strong quarter sends a loud message both to potential Democratic primary opponents and potential Republican opposition in the general. Her candidacy is for real, and anyone thinking of jumping into the race (either side of the aisle) better be prepared for the long haul.
CD2
Trent Franks, Republican* - $49563.00, $23,500, $26,063.00, $72,153.87
John Thrasher, Democrat - $2,218.51; $0; $2,215.00; $3,619.87
CD3
Bob Lord, Democrat - $142,133.52; $5,000.00; $137,133.52; $332,189.52
John Shadegg, Republican* - $192,653.00; $36,400.00; $156,253.00; $450,930.26
Annie Loyd, Independent - $12,139.24; 0; $12,139.24; $5,001.16
Bob Stump, Republican - $0; $0; $0; $13,484.68
CD3 notes: You know that Independent Loyd has an uphill fight when the numbers show that her active campaign has less cash on hand than the inactive (for many years) campaign of Republican Stump. Also, the Lord campaign seems to have legs; while the incumbent Shadegg has outraised him and leads in COH, the differences are fairly insignificant, especially when the majority of the fundraising difference is rooted in Shadegg's advantage in PAC money.
This one is going to be a real race and one to keep an eye on.
Note on the note - Mr. Lord will be speaking at the next meeting of the Arizona chapter of the National Jewish Democratic on next Thursday. More on that in my "events calendar" post later this week.
CD4
Ed Pastor, Democrat* - $53,935.94; $39,190.94; $14,745.00; $1,229,812.71
CD5
Harry Mitchell, Democrat* - $354,638.52; $140,470.52; $214,168.00
Laura Knaperek, Republican - $30,700.00; $0; $30,700.00; $28,846.25
JD Hayworth, Republican - $0; $0; $0, $20,279.70
Larry King, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $0
CD5 Note: Laura Knaperek's max contributors ($4600) include Ken Kendrick, owner of the Diamondbacks, and Randy Kendrick, lawyer. Other contributors include Nathan Sproul (Arizona's version of Karl Rove) and his wife Tiffani, who gave $2300 each.
CD6
Jeff Flake, Republican - $225,765.78; $22,500.00; $203,265.78; $749,738.38
CD7
Raul Grijalva, Democrat* - $63,122.02; $0; $63,122.02; $94,425.00
CD8
Eva Bacal, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $2,957.80
Tim Bee, Republican - $134,620.00; $0; $134,620.00; $119,316.25
Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat* - $257,800.05; $96,548.41; $161,251.64; $1,126,838.82
Note: Giffords' info has been corrected by an update; a previous "October" report that was filed in September is NOT the October quarterly report. Oops - I should've caught that in my original post. :(
CD8 note: With a cash on hand total that is slightly more than 10% of Gabrielle Giffords', the fundraising effort of sitting State Senate President Bee can only be termed as "disappointing" for the Republicans.
Of course, I'm a Democrat. :)))))
Yet another note: Some other blogs have reported numbers for other candidates (Sonoran Alliance post on the Ogsbury campaign in CD5 here) but until the FEC posts them, I won't list them. I'm not saying that SA has it wrong (their source is an email from the campaign, which is good enough for me) but I want to be consistent. The numbers that candidates tout to their supporters can be different than the ones they report to the FEC.
The FEC numbers count more. :))
A Sonoran Alliance post on the significance of the numbers in CD5 and CD8 here.
A Sustainablity, Equity, Development post on CD8 is here.
Later!
Monday, July 16, 2007
Quarterly numbers, anyone?
The FEC has posted candidates' quarterly financial reports online.
Summary of interesting stuff for Arizona's Congressfolk and would-be Congressfolk -
Ed Pastor of CD4 has the most cash on hand, at $1,185,109.24 but in a bit of a surprise, freshman Gabrielle Giffords of CD8 is second with a whopping $941,489.64.
Whoever the Reps throw against her next year will have a steep uphill fight.
In terms of fundraising, the two freshman Democrats in Congress, Giffords and Harry Mitchell of CD5, led the way raising $580,637.32 and $354,638.52 respectively.
Coming in 3rd, however, playing catch-up to (and surpassing) the surprising fundraising totals of challenger Bob Lord from last quarter's reports, Republican John Shadegg of CD3 raised $311,532. He now has a lead in cash on hand over Lord by approximately $50K.
Leading the state's Congressional delegation in the 'seriously scuffling' category is Republican Rick Renzi of CD1.
He's down to $20,418.16 cash on hand after raising just over $40k during the quarter.
The best part of the numbers? He paid out $25,000 in legal fees, and owes over $100K more.
And speaking of a (former) Congressman with legal issues, here are JD Hayworth's numbers:
Cash on hand: $23,134.64 (that's good news)
Raised: $0 (that's better news)
Spent: $107,879.42, with nearly $100K of that in legal fees. (that's *great* news :) )
Later!
Summary of interesting stuff for Arizona's Congressfolk and would-be Congressfolk -
Ed Pastor of CD4 has the most cash on hand, at $1,185,109.24 but in a bit of a surprise, freshman Gabrielle Giffords of CD8 is second with a whopping $941,489.64.
Whoever the Reps throw against her next year will have a steep uphill fight.
In terms of fundraising, the two freshman Democrats in Congress, Giffords and Harry Mitchell of CD5, led the way raising $580,637.32 and $354,638.52 respectively.
Coming in 3rd, however, playing catch-up to (and surpassing) the surprising fundraising totals of challenger Bob Lord from last quarter's reports, Republican John Shadegg of CD3 raised $311,532. He now has a lead in cash on hand over Lord by approximately $50K.
Leading the state's Congressional delegation in the 'seriously scuffling' category is Republican Rick Renzi of CD1.
He's down to $20,418.16 cash on hand after raising just over $40k during the quarter.
The best part of the numbers? He paid out $25,000 in legal fees, and owes over $100K more.
And speaking of a (former) Congressman with legal issues, here are JD Hayworth's numbers:
Cash on hand: $23,134.64 (that's good news)
Raised: $0 (that's better news)
Spent: $107,879.42, with nearly $100K of that in legal fees. (that's *great* news :) )
Later!
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
Mitchell getting praise from the far corners...
of Republican wingnut-land...
I'm pretty sure that's never a good thing.
Nativist Tom Tancredo, in an interview from that voice of civil discourse and enlightened reason (that's sarcasm folks), the Stop The ACLU blog -
Actually, the praise is based on more than a little revisionism mixed with selective memory. Good ol' JD didn't lose because he was too moderate on immigration; while CD5 does have a Republican registration advantage, the Reps in the district tend to be less from the 'cross and book burning' wing of their party, and more from the 'corporate interests before human interests' wing of it. They aren't the types to let a little bigotry interfere with a steady supply of cheap labor.
I'm pretty sure that's never a good thing.
Nativist Tom Tancredo, in an interview from that voice of civil discourse and enlightened reason (that's sarcasm folks), the Stop The ACLU blog -
Q. Many are of the opinion that the Democrats took over both Houses due to ignoring the important issue of border control. Do you believe this played a major part or is this issue more complicated?
A. In 2006, many Democrats that defeated Republicans had immigration platforms as tough as mine. Consider the many Democrats in 2006 that ran on border enforcement and no amnesty platforms. Democratic Congressman Heath Shuler defeated an incumbent Republican with such positions as: “Illegal immigration costs American taxpayers approximately $70 billion a year in financial assistance for welfare benefits, health care, education and domestic crime-fighting. I do not support granting amnesty to people who have broken the law.” J.D. Hayworth — I know you all remember him — was defeated by Democratic Harry Mitchell, who has this on his website: “Every sovereign nation has a responsibility to secure its border. In Congress, I’ll make it a top priority to secure the U.S.-Mexico border and stop illegal immigration.” The list goes on and can include Montana Senator Jon Tester and Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill. Democrats won because Republicans ignored the issue for too many years.
Actually, the praise is based on more than a little revisionism mixed with selective memory. Good ol' JD didn't lose because he was too moderate on immigration; while CD5 does have a Republican registration advantage, the Reps in the district tend to be less from the 'cross and book burning' wing of their party, and more from the 'corporate interests before human interests' wing of it. They aren't the types to let a little bigotry interfere with a steady supply of cheap labor.
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Quarterly FEC reports are in...
...and I'll let others write about the presidential candidate numbers.
Some of the FEC's quarterly financial reports for active Congressional candidate committees in Arizona.
Incumbents bolded, challengers italicized.
Note: "PAC" numbers include all contributions from non-political party committees. Generally speaking, Republicans had a lot of corporate contributions; Democrats had a lot of union contributions.
CD1 -
Democrat Ellen Simon raised $4,295.54, more than $4K from herself.
Republican Rick Renzi raised $117,698.70, $76,950.00 from PACs.
CD2 -
Republican Trent Franks raised $40,031.00, $9,000 from PACs.
Democrat John Thrasher raised $4,340.00, $3,000 from himself.
CD3 -
Democrat Bob Lord raised $137,968.15, $0 from PACs.
Republican John Shadegg raised $19,338.57, $4,500.00 from PACs.
CD4 -
Democrat Ed Pastor raised $11,650.00, $1,000 from PACs.
CD5 -
Democrat Harry Mitchell raised $234,768.46, $107,162.35 from PACs.
Republican JD Hayworth raised $136.00.
CD6 -
Republican Jeff Flake raised $84,065.00, $3100.00 from PACs.
CD7 -
Democrat Raul Grijalva raised $26,843.86, $25,500 from PACs.
CD8 -
Democrat Gabrielle Giffords raised $325,252.61, $104,966.17 from PACs.
Democrat Jeff Latas raised $900.00, all from himself.
Active during the quarter, but no contributions received - Bob Stump (R-CD3), Ron Drake (R-CD7, committee termination report filed), Eva Bacal (D-CD8), Jim Kolbe (R-CD8), Larry King (D-CD5), Herb Paine (D-CD3, termination report filed 03-01-2007),
Brief observation: By far, Mitchell, Giffords, and Renzi were the most active incumbent fundraisers this quarter, but that's no surprise - they are all targeted for defeat in the next election; Mitchell and Giffords because they are in their first terms, and Renzi because of his ethical and residency issues.
Brief prediction: Expect Shadegg to get his fundraising organization into gear after the showing of Bob Lord (top fundraiser among the non-incumbents, #3 overall) this quarter.
Some of the FEC's quarterly financial reports for active Congressional candidate committees in Arizona.
Incumbents bolded, challengers italicized.
Note: "PAC" numbers include all contributions from non-political party committees. Generally speaking, Republicans had a lot of corporate contributions; Democrats had a lot of union contributions.
CD1 -
Democrat Ellen Simon raised $4,295.54, more than $4K from herself.
Republican Rick Renzi raised $117,698.70, $76,950.00 from PACs.
CD2 -
Republican Trent Franks raised $40,031.00, $9,000 from PACs.
Democrat John Thrasher raised $4,340.00, $3,000 from himself.
CD3 -
Democrat Bob Lord raised $137,968.15, $0 from PACs.
Republican John Shadegg raised $19,338.57, $4,500.00 from PACs.
CD4 -
Democrat Ed Pastor raised $11,650.00, $1,000 from PACs.
CD5 -
Democrat Harry Mitchell raised $234,768.46, $107,162.35 from PACs.
Republican JD Hayworth raised $136.00.
CD6 -
Republican Jeff Flake raised $84,065.00, $3100.00 from PACs.
CD7 -
Democrat Raul Grijalva raised $26,843.86, $25,500 from PACs.
CD8 -
Democrat Gabrielle Giffords raised $325,252.61, $104,966.17 from PACs.
Democrat Jeff Latas raised $900.00, all from himself.
Active during the quarter, but no contributions received - Bob Stump (R-CD3), Ron Drake (R-CD7, committee termination report filed), Eva Bacal (D-CD8), Jim Kolbe (R-CD8), Larry King (D-CD5), Herb Paine (D-CD3, termination report filed 03-01-2007),
Brief observation: By far, Mitchell, Giffords, and Renzi were the most active incumbent fundraisers this quarter, but that's no surprise - they are all targeted for defeat in the next election; Mitchell and Giffords because they are in their first terms, and Renzi because of his ethical and residency issues.
Brief prediction: Expect Shadegg to get his fundraising organization into gear after the showing of Bob Lord (top fundraiser among the non-incumbents, #3 overall) this quarter.
Sunday, March 04, 2007
And the rankings are in...
Thanks to Taegan Goddard's Political Wire for the heads-up on this...
...courtesy of the National Journal.
[Note: I wasn't going to do this post as it's the type of post that Stacy at AZ Congress Watch usually does, and does very well. However, she skipped this one and covered the Humane Society's Congressional report card.
...Guess she thinks that puppies and kittens are more fun than ideology.
...Guess she's right. :)) ]
The National Journal has published in 2006 Congressional vote ratings and has ranked Congressfolk on a most conservative/liberal scale.
AZ Summary: Trent Franks (with the now-departed JD Hayworth close behind) was among the most conservative of all of members of the House; Jon Kyl was nearly the most conservative in the Senate. Raul Grijalva was among the most liberal members of the House.
The AZ delegation's numbers at a glance:
In the Senate (ranked as 'most conservative) -
Jon Kyl is the more conservative of our two U.S. Senators. He ranked 3rd overall, coming in as tied for the most conservative on economic policy, 19th on social policy, and tied for first on foreign policy;
John McCain is the 46th most conservative. He was 36th most conservative on economic policy, 53rd on social policy, and 42nd in foreign policy.
In the House -
Note: As new members, Gabrielle Giffords and Harry Mitchell are not part of these rankings.
[Key: overall ranking, economic policy votes, social policy votes, foreign policy votes]
Republicans, ranked as 'most conservative':
Rick Renzi (CD1) - 177th, 160th, 159th, 186th
Trent Franks (CD2) - 37th, 67th, 13th, 80th
John Shadegg (CD3) - 144th, 114th, 138th, 144th
JD Hayworth (CD5) - 46th, 88th, 15th, 82nd
Jeff Flake (CD6) - 216th, 182nd, 230th, 230th
Jim Kolbe (CD8) - 166th, 15th, 248th, 188th
Democrats, ranked as 'most liberal':
[Key: overall ranking, economic policy votes, social policy votes, foreign policy votes]
Ed Pastor (CD4) - 75th, 117th, 19th, 102nd.
Raul Grijalva (CD7) - 3rd, 25th, 3rd, 2nd
The only real surprise in all this?
I didn't realize that Jeff Flake is the face of the "reasonable conservative" in D.C. This isn't a dig at him or at his 'conservative' cred; have no fear, I think he is verrry conservative and disagree with him on most social and political issues.
I just didn't realize how much he votes the issue, his constituents, or even his conscience over the party line.
[Hey, it's either that or the Republican Party has moved so far to the loony end of the political spectrum that a staunch social and fiscal conservative like Flake looks like a moderate by comparison.]
Of course, the nutjob wing (aka - 'Coulter Wing') of the Repubs may look at the National Journal's numbers (and this post!) and run someone at Flake during the next primary as punishment for his backsliding.
Good God, I think I just complimented a Republican; even though the compliment is of a 'back-handed' nature, I must be tired.
Good night!
...courtesy of the National Journal.
[Note: I wasn't going to do this post as it's the type of post that Stacy at AZ Congress Watch usually does, and does very well. However, she skipped this one and covered the Humane Society's Congressional report card.
...Guess she thinks that puppies and kittens are more fun than ideology.
...Guess she's right. :)) ]
The National Journal has published in 2006 Congressional vote ratings and has ranked Congressfolk on a most conservative/liberal scale.
AZ Summary: Trent Franks (with the now-departed JD Hayworth close behind) was among the most conservative of all of members of the House; Jon Kyl was nearly the most conservative in the Senate. Raul Grijalva was among the most liberal members of the House.
The AZ delegation's numbers at a glance:
In the Senate (ranked as 'most conservative) -
Jon Kyl is the more conservative of our two U.S. Senators. He ranked 3rd overall, coming in as tied for the most conservative on economic policy, 19th on social policy, and tied for first on foreign policy;
John McCain is the 46th most conservative. He was 36th most conservative on economic policy, 53rd on social policy, and 42nd in foreign policy.
In the House -
Note: As new members, Gabrielle Giffords and Harry Mitchell are not part of these rankings.
[Key: overall ranking, economic policy votes, social policy votes, foreign policy votes]
Republicans, ranked as 'most conservative':
Rick Renzi (CD1) - 177th, 160th, 159th, 186th
Trent Franks (CD2) - 37th, 67th, 13th, 80th
John Shadegg (CD3) - 144th, 114th, 138th, 144th
JD Hayworth (CD5) - 46th, 88th, 15th, 82nd
Jeff Flake (CD6) - 216th, 182nd, 230th, 230th
Jim Kolbe (CD8) - 166th, 15th, 248th, 188th
Democrats, ranked as 'most liberal':
[Key: overall ranking, economic policy votes, social policy votes, foreign policy votes]
Ed Pastor (CD4) - 75th, 117th, 19th, 102nd.
Raul Grijalva (CD7) - 3rd, 25th, 3rd, 2nd
The only real surprise in all this?
I didn't realize that Jeff Flake is the face of the "reasonable conservative" in D.C. This isn't a dig at him or at his 'conservative' cred; have no fear, I think he is verrry conservative and disagree with him on most social and political issues.
I just didn't realize how much he votes the issue, his constituents, or even his conscience over the party line.
[Hey, it's either that or the Republican Party has moved so far to the loony end of the political spectrum that a staunch social and fiscal conservative like Flake looks like a moderate by comparison.]
Of course, the nutjob wing (aka - 'Coulter Wing') of the Repubs may look at the National Journal's numbers (and this post!) and run someone at Flake during the next primary as punishment for his backsliding.
Good God, I think I just complimented a Republican; even though the compliment is of a 'back-handed' nature, I must be tired.
Good night!
Thursday, March 01, 2007
Steve King (R-IA): JD with a job
You know, and it pains me to admit this, but sometimes I miss JD. No matter what kind of writer's block (or simple lack of motivation) that I might have ever gone through, he could always be counted on to snap me out of it.
Maybe it would be a self-serving press release or a bilious floor statement, or even something else, but he could be counted on to tick me off enough to shake off any writing doldrums.
Not that I've been suffering any recently. :)
But, fear not, while JD is gone, his spirit lives on in Congress in the person of Steve King, Republican Congressman from Iowa.
I saw him on CSPAN on Wednesday, but wanted to wait until his remarks were transcribed into the record to write about them, mostly to make sure I didn't mis-hear his words. He was supposed to be speaking about immigration reform, but it was mostly a screed; one against immigrants of non-Western European background.
It starts on page H2028 of the Congressional Record.
He spoke about many subjects related to immigration ("one language", "American exceptionalism" and the ilk); he even tried to explain how illegal immigration is screwing up congressional districting, citing that the typical CD size is approximately 600,000 people.(emphasis mine)-
And if there are 400,000 illegals in a single district, that means there are only 200,000 citizens.
One minor detail: not only have the Republicans done everything they can to make certain that undocumented immigrants aren't counted as part of the Census, over the years they've done everything they can to undercount poor citizens. After decades of undercounting, it's hypocritical of him to now turn around and say that immigrants are unfairly skewing CD demographics.
In a recent survey, 78% of people polled said friends shouldn't let friends cite statistics. :))
Anyway, back to the original point of my post - during his floor speech, King started talking about a community in his district that is mainly populated by people of Dutch descent, comparing its 'goodness' (measured mostly by the number of churches, apparently) to the "permissiveness" of their ancestral home.
He uses that as a lead-in to this little nugget:
Umm, Mr. King?
The English who came here initially were religious fanatics who wore out their welcomes in polite society everywhere in Europe, not just England...
The original Spanish explorers to North America were soldiers of fortune...
The Irish were primarily poor farmers who had no clue how to survive in an urban environment and were subjected to vicious, bigoted attacks on their reputations, their religion, and their persons...
Similar stories could be told about each group of immigrants that color our history - to be sure, some were "good" people, already wealthy, or at least financially secure in their original countries; however, many, even most, of the members of those groups (particularly early on in the wave of immigration from their particular country) were considered 'less than desirable' by the societies of their home countries.
And once they got here, they were considered "wretched refuse."
The pattern of unwanted in the source country and reviled here has held true from the earliest non-English immigrants through to the Mexican immigrants of today.
Even much of the political rhetoric today is the same as was used as far back as the pre-Civil War era.
The Know-Nothings of the mid-1850's railed about the need for more "stringent and effective immigration laws" and supporting "our country, our whole country, and nothing but our country."
Today's Republicans talk about an "immigration policy that strengthens our borders [and] makes our nation more secure..."(from good ol' JD) and how immigration is "undermining" American character (King).
Not really much growth there.
Of course, it should be noted that when the Know-Nothing movement fell apart in the 1860s, many of its strongest adherents became Republicans, fueling the transformation of the party from the Party of Lincoln into the party of David Duke, Jesse Helms, and yes, Steve King.
So, on that note, I say "thank you" to the people of Iowa's Fifth District for repeatedly loosing Mr. King upon the whole country; you have performed a great public service for writers nationwide.
Good night!
Maybe it would be a self-serving press release or a bilious floor statement, or even something else, but he could be counted on to tick me off enough to shake off any writing doldrums.
Not that I've been suffering any recently. :)
But, fear not, while JD is gone, his spirit lives on in Congress in the person of Steve King, Republican Congressman from Iowa.
I saw him on CSPAN on Wednesday, but wanted to wait until his remarks were transcribed into the record to write about them, mostly to make sure I didn't mis-hear his words. He was supposed to be speaking about immigration reform, but it was mostly a screed; one against immigrants of non-Western European background.
It starts on page H2028 of the Congressional Record.
He spoke about many subjects related to immigration ("one language", "American exceptionalism" and the ilk); he even tried to explain how illegal immigration is screwing up congressional districting, citing that the typical CD size is approximately 600,000 people.(emphasis mine)-
And if there are 400,000 illegals in a single district, that means there are only 200,000 citizens.
One minor detail: not only have the Republicans done everything they can to make certain that undocumented immigrants aren't counted as part of the Census, over the years they've done everything they can to undercount poor citizens. After decades of undercounting, it's hypocritical of him to now turn around and say that immigrants are unfairly skewing CD demographics.
In a recent survey, 78% of people polled said friends shouldn't let friends cite statistics. :))
Anyway, back to the original point of my post - during his floor speech, King started talking about a community in his district that is mainly populated by people of Dutch descent, comparing its 'goodness' (measured mostly by the number of churches, apparently) to the "permissiveness" of their ancestral home.
He uses that as a lead-in to this little nugget:
And, Mr. Speaker, I tell this story because it identifies the source of American exceptionalism. The good Dutch came here. So did the good English, so did the good Spanish, so did the good French, so did the good Norwegians and Swedes and Germans and Irish and all the way down the line.
Umm, Mr. King?
The English who came here initially were religious fanatics who wore out their welcomes in polite society everywhere in Europe, not just England...
The original Spanish explorers to North America were soldiers of fortune...
The Irish were primarily poor farmers who had no clue how to survive in an urban environment and were subjected to vicious, bigoted attacks on their reputations, their religion, and their persons...
Similar stories could be told about each group of immigrants that color our history - to be sure, some were "good" people, already wealthy, or at least financially secure in their original countries; however, many, even most, of the members of those groups (particularly early on in the wave of immigration from their particular country) were considered 'less than desirable' by the societies of their home countries.
And once they got here, they were considered "wretched refuse."
The pattern of unwanted in the source country and reviled here has held true from the earliest non-English immigrants through to the Mexican immigrants of today.
Even much of the political rhetoric today is the same as was used as far back as the pre-Civil War era.
The Know-Nothings of the mid-1850's railed about the need for more "stringent and effective immigration laws" and supporting "our country, our whole country, and nothing but our country."
Today's Republicans talk about an "immigration policy that strengthens our borders [and] makes our nation more secure..."(from good ol' JD) and how immigration is "undermining" American character (King).
Not really much growth there.
Of course, it should be noted that when the Know-Nothing movement fell apart in the 1860s, many of its strongest adherents became Republicans, fueling the transformation of the party from the Party of Lincoln into the party of David Duke, Jesse Helms, and yes, Steve King.
So, on that note, I say "thank you" to the people of Iowa's Fifth District for repeatedly loosing Mr. King upon the whole country; you have performed a great public service for writers nationwide.
Good night!
Thursday, February 08, 2007
Harry Mitchell/CD5 news...
Congressman Mitchell's latest bill co-sponsorship:
...H R 620: Climate Stewardship Act of 2007, addressing the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
...From a press release (it's short, so I'm pasting the whole thing):
...This Saturday, February 10, Congressman Mitchell will "meet and greet" constituents at the Changing Hands Bookstore at 9:00 a.m. The store is located at the southeast corner of McClintock and Guadaloupe in Tempe. Contact the store at 480-730-0205 for more details.
Note: even without the Congressman's presence, Changing Hands is a great bookstore. Whether or not you can attend Saturday morning, the store is worthy of a visit.
Note2: I'm sure that Stacy at AZCW will post the results of today's roll call votes this evening.
....In other CD5 news, JD Hayworth spoke in Scottsdale yesterday, and afterwards, spoke to AZ Rep-ster David Madrid (he's handling Plugged In now that Dan Nowicki has been assigned to be the Rep's chief McCain cheerleader). Madrid's coverage is here.
Apparently, he wasn't a blowhard, and he did state that he "isn't done with public service" but was coy about which office (s) he might run for in future.
Later!
...H R 620: Climate Stewardship Act of 2007, addressing the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
...From a press release (it's short, so I'm pasting the whole thing):
Mitchell to address airport delays, mishandled baggage
Will Raise Issue as Transportation Secretary Mary Peters Testifies before House Transportation Committee
WASHINGTON, D.C. - U.S. Rep. Harry Mitchell said he looked forward to finding out more information about a troubling decrease in airline on-time performance as well a reported increase in mishandled luggage at today's House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee hearing where Secretary of Transportation Mary Peters, an Arizona native, is scheduled to testify.
According to today's Washington Post, "Airlines' on-time performance dropped for the fifth year in a row in 2006, with one in four flights arriving late or not at all, according to data released yesterday by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics."[Source: Washington Post, Feb. 8, 2007]
"The airlines also mishandled a massive amount of luggage - 4 million bags, or 6.7 for every 1000 passengers, the industry's worst rate since 1990." [Source: Washington Post, Feb. 8, 2007]
"I look forward to hearing from Secretary Peters about how Congress can help herbring airline passengers better on-time performance and better baggage handling," said Mitchell, a member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee's Subcommittee on Aviation. "If there is one person who knows Arizona 's transportation needs it is Secretary Peters, and I look forward to working with her on this and many other issues."
...This Saturday, February 10, Congressman Mitchell will "meet and greet" constituents at the Changing Hands Bookstore at 9:00 a.m. The store is located at the southeast corner of McClintock and Guadaloupe in Tempe. Contact the store at 480-730-0205 for more details.
Note: even without the Congressman's presence, Changing Hands is a great bookstore. Whether or not you can attend Saturday morning, the store is worthy of a visit.
Note2: I'm sure that Stacy at AZCW will post the results of today's roll call votes this evening.
....In other CD5 news, JD Hayworth spoke in Scottsdale yesterday, and afterwards, spoke to AZ Rep-ster David Madrid (he's handling Plugged In now that Dan Nowicki has been assigned to be the Rep's chief McCain cheerleader). Madrid's coverage is here.
Apparently, he wasn't a blowhard, and he did state that he "isn't done with public service" but was coy about which office (s) he might run for in future.
Later!
Saturday, February 03, 2007
Short attention span musing
A couple of newly-instituted awards this week...
...Winning award for "Scariest Elected Official of the Week" is our own Maricopa County DA, Andrew "Kill 'em quick and let God sort out the mistakes" Thomas.
The reason for Thomas's victory is best illustrated by this interesting sequence -
On the AZ Rep website (and this may change by the time you go to the front page), is the headline "Faster death-penalty trials?" that links to an article about the county attorney's efforts to speed up the capital trial, appeals, and execution process. He's upset that there aren't enough qualified public defenders for all of the defendants that he wants to kill. He has called for the existing death-qualified defense attorneys to take on more cases.
Directly below that headline is one that states "Ajo Al's owner cleared of charges". It links to an article concerning a case where the county attorney brought criminal charges against a restaurant for health code violations. He held a big press conference and everything.
He ignored one little detail though; a detail that resulted in the dismissal.
The restaurant had already been sanctioned and corrected the code violations.
That darn double jeopardy thingie. How's a DA supposed to run an efficient railroad with that getting in the way?
...The "Dumbest Elected Official of the Week" award goes to Gavin Newsom, mayor of San Francisco.
Seems he had an extramarital affair with the wife of a close friend; not a good thing for his political career, but hardly a certain end to it. Bill Clinton survived the hubbub surrounding his affair, and at least two people who are known to have cheated on their wives, at least in the past, are candidates for president in 2008 (Giuliani and Gingrich.)
The really dumb part? Not only was his girlfriend, Ruby Rippey-Tourk, the wife of a close friend; that close friend, Alex Tourk, is his campaign manager.
Make that "was" his campaign manager as Tourk resigned on January 31.
All of which should make for an interesting conversation when Mayor Newsom starts interviewing for a replacement campaign manager:
Interviewee: "So, Mr. Mayor, why is this position available?"
Newsom: "Well, there was some inappropriate boinking going on, and the situation had to be dealt with."
Interviewee: "Oh? Who was he boinking?"
Newsom: "Errr...ummm...."
As the Time Magazine article linked above points out, the biggest issue for Newsom may not be the affair itself, but the fact that he betrayed not only his own wife but his closest and most loyal confidant. Pretty dumb when you're asking people to place their trust in him and to cast their vote for him.
And that is what merits the "Dumbest..." award.
...In JD Hayworth news, he has earned the "Sloppiest (Un-) Elected Official" award of the week.
In his "Year-End" filing with the FEC, covering the period from November 28 thru December 31, 2006, he reported period contributions of $136.00, with cycle-to-date contributions of $15,592.17. The rest of the report had similarly low numbers for both the period and cycle-to-date.
In his "Post-General" report, covering through November 27, 2006, he reported cycle-to-date contributions of $2,932,181.67.
That's a decrease in cycle contributions of $2,916,589.50 in a 34-day period.
That's also either accounting fraud on an almost Enron-esque level, or the sloppy attention to detail of a profoundly disappointed losing candidate.
My guess, based on the fact that there were other glitches in the report (dates and such) and also on the expectation that he is going to run for office again is that this is simple sloppiness and will be corrected in an amended report.
It's still fun to point out, though. :)
Note: assuming that one detail from the form is accurate, Hayworth still has over $200,000 cash on hand. That's a nice amount of seed money if he decides to challenge Harry Mitchell in 2008, or try for John McCain's U.S. Senate seat in 2010.
Note2: The Mitchell campaign's year-end report lists cash-on-hand at just under $21,000.
Have a great weekend!
...Winning award for "Scariest Elected Official of the Week" is our own Maricopa County DA, Andrew "Kill 'em quick and let God sort out the mistakes" Thomas.
The reason for Thomas's victory is best illustrated by this interesting sequence -
On the AZ Rep website (and this may change by the time you go to the front page), is the headline "Faster death-penalty trials?" that links to an article about the county attorney's efforts to speed up the capital trial, appeals, and execution process. He's upset that there aren't enough qualified public defenders for all of the defendants that he wants to kill. He has called for the existing death-qualified defense attorneys to take on more cases.
Directly below that headline is one that states "Ajo Al's owner cleared of charges". It links to an article concerning a case where the county attorney brought criminal charges against a restaurant for health code violations. He held a big press conference and everything.
He ignored one little detail though; a detail that resulted in the dismissal.
The restaurant had already been sanctioned and corrected the code violations.
That darn double jeopardy thingie. How's a DA supposed to run an efficient railroad with that getting in the way?
...The "Dumbest Elected Official of the Week" award goes to Gavin Newsom, mayor of San Francisco.
Seems he had an extramarital affair with the wife of a close friend; not a good thing for his political career, but hardly a certain end to it. Bill Clinton survived the hubbub surrounding his affair, and at least two people who are known to have cheated on their wives, at least in the past, are candidates for president in 2008 (Giuliani and Gingrich.)
The really dumb part? Not only was his girlfriend, Ruby Rippey-Tourk, the wife of a close friend; that close friend, Alex Tourk, is his campaign manager.
Make that "was" his campaign manager as Tourk resigned on January 31.
All of which should make for an interesting conversation when Mayor Newsom starts interviewing for a replacement campaign manager:
Interviewee: "So, Mr. Mayor, why is this position available?"
Newsom: "Well, there was some inappropriate boinking going on, and the situation had to be dealt with."
Interviewee: "Oh? Who was he boinking?"
Newsom: "Errr...ummm...."
As the Time Magazine article linked above points out, the biggest issue for Newsom may not be the affair itself, but the fact that he betrayed not only his own wife but his closest and most loyal confidant. Pretty dumb when you're asking people to place their trust in him and to cast their vote for him.
And that is what merits the "Dumbest..." award.
...In JD Hayworth news, he has earned the "Sloppiest (Un-) Elected Official" award of the week.
In his "Year-End" filing with the FEC, covering the period from November 28 thru December 31, 2006, he reported period contributions of $136.00, with cycle-to-date contributions of $15,592.17. The rest of the report had similarly low numbers for both the period and cycle-to-date.
In his "Post-General" report, covering through November 27, 2006, he reported cycle-to-date contributions of $2,932,181.67.
That's a decrease in cycle contributions of $2,916,589.50 in a 34-day period.
That's also either accounting fraud on an almost Enron-esque level, or the sloppy attention to detail of a profoundly disappointed losing candidate.
My guess, based on the fact that there were other glitches in the report (dates and such) and also on the expectation that he is going to run for office again is that this is simple sloppiness and will be corrected in an amended report.
It's still fun to point out, though. :)
Note: assuming that one detail from the form is accurate, Hayworth still has over $200,000 cash on hand. That's a nice amount of seed money if he decides to challenge Harry Mitchell in 2008, or try for John McCain's U.S. Senate seat in 2010.
Note2: The Mitchell campaign's year-end report lists cash-on-hand at just under $21,000.
Have a great weekend!
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
Here and there...
...I don't normally cover Massachusetts politics, but this rumor has some AZ ties...
The Boston Herald reported a rumor/draft movement about Red Sox pitcher (and former DBacks pitcher) Curt Schilling running against John Kerry in 2008 for a Senate seat. (Schilling is an ardent Republican.)
Schilling discounted the rumor, but did not rule it out entirely. He was also quoted in the article as saying that he would support either Sen. John McCain or Sen. Barack Obama for President next year.
In what may be his first campaign move, Schilling announced that he is *not* retiring after the 2007 season as previously expected; instead, he will play at least through 2008.
Which is a "campaign move" because the only way he unseats Kerry in November 2008 is to lead the Red Sox to a World Series victory in October 2008.
And, after the victory parade, burying George Steinbrenner up to his neck in the warning track in front of the Green Monster would probably help his chances. A lot. :))
...In news that's a little closer to home, JD Hayworth is starting to come out of his seclusion from the public eye.
According to the Eastern Arizona Courier (they call it a "contributed article"; it reads like a press release), the former Congressman will be among those speaking a gathering of the Graham County Republicans on February 23 at Eastern Arizona College.
...In unsurprising Scottsdale news, the Scottsdale City Council tonight voted to reactivate the photo radar program along a stretch of Loop 101 in Scottsdale. The only real question was about the use of the revenue generated by the citations generated by the program. Councilman Bob Littlefield wanted to specifically target the revenue for public safety programs, but was told by the City Attorney that anything related to spending money had to be properly agendized and given a public hearing.
The motion to reactivate passed by a 5-1 margin (Councilman Tony Nelssen against; Councilman McCullagh absent-bereavement). Councilman Nelssen stated that he could not support the reactivation of the cameras unless the revenue was specifically targeted for public safety.
The program is scheduled to restart on February 22.
Councilman Littlefield also mentioned during the discussion that a state legislator will be introducing a bill to take any revenue generated from a state-run photo radar program and dedicate it to road construction. When asked about it after the meeting, he didn't have a name.
I can guess at least one of the names involved, though. :)
I'll keep an eye on any legislation proposed in this regard.
AZRep coverage of the meeting here.
Later!
The Boston Herald reported a rumor/draft movement about Red Sox pitcher (and former DBacks pitcher) Curt Schilling running against John Kerry in 2008 for a Senate seat. (Schilling is an ardent Republican.)
Schilling discounted the rumor, but did not rule it out entirely. He was also quoted in the article as saying that he would support either Sen. John McCain or Sen. Barack Obama for President next year.
In what may be his first campaign move, Schilling announced that he is *not* retiring after the 2007 season as previously expected; instead, he will play at least through 2008.
Which is a "campaign move" because the only way he unseats Kerry in November 2008 is to lead the Red Sox to a World Series victory in October 2008.
And, after the victory parade, burying George Steinbrenner up to his neck in the warning track in front of the Green Monster would probably help his chances. A lot. :))
...In news that's a little closer to home, JD Hayworth is starting to come out of his seclusion from the public eye.
According to the Eastern Arizona Courier (they call it a "contributed article"; it reads like a press release), the former Congressman will be among those speaking a gathering of the Graham County Republicans on February 23 at Eastern Arizona College.
...In unsurprising Scottsdale news, the Scottsdale City Council tonight voted to reactivate the photo radar program along a stretch of Loop 101 in Scottsdale. The only real question was about the use of the revenue generated by the citations generated by the program. Councilman Bob Littlefield wanted to specifically target the revenue for public safety programs, but was told by the City Attorney that anything related to spending money had to be properly agendized and given a public hearing.
The motion to reactivate passed by a 5-1 margin (Councilman Tony Nelssen against; Councilman McCullagh absent-bereavement). Councilman Nelssen stated that he could not support the reactivation of the cameras unless the revenue was specifically targeted for public safety.
The program is scheduled to restart on February 22.
Councilman Littlefield also mentioned during the discussion that a state legislator will be introducing a bill to take any revenue generated from a state-run photo radar program and dedicate it to road construction. When asked about it after the meeting, he didn't have a name.
I can guess at least one of the names involved, though. :)
I'll keep an eye on any legislation proposed in this regard.
AZRep coverage of the meeting here.
Later!
Thursday, December 21, 2006
CD5 Precinct-By-Precinct: preliminary number crunching
The Maricopa County Recorder's Office has finally posted the precinct-by-precinct results for the November election. I've put them into an Excel spreadsheet to play with them, and have a few results now:
Out of 250 precincts in CD5:
Harry Mitchell and JD Hayworth tied in 2 - Mesa 51 (274 votes each) and Pima (450 each).
They were less than 10 votes apart in 15 other precincts.
JD Hayworth won in 75 precincts; Harry Mitchell won 171. There were two precincts that had no votes recorded, Longmore (6 registered voters) and Canyon (0 registered voters).
171 Mitchell + 75 Hayworth + 2 ties + 2 no votes = 250 precincts accounted for.
Disclaimer: Now for the "preliminary" part.
One of the analyses that I performed was to compare the results of the voting with the registrations, which was enlightening, until I realized that I had used incomplete registration numbers for each precinct. I used only the "active" registrations for each precinct; unfortunately for the calculations, "inactive" registrations are still valid. The difference won't make a large difference in the analysis, but could affect it slightly. I'll update it next week, but even when using only the "active" numbers, the results are eye-opening.
As part of the analysis, I used as a baseline the registrations with declared affiliations and then compared that to the actual breakdown of the results.
For example, if a given precinct had 150 registered voters, 100 with affiliations, 60 Rep, 35 Dem, and 5 Libertarian, that would give a baseline of 60% Rep, 35% Dem, and 5% Lib. With a vote breakdown of 53% Hayworth, 45% Mitchell, and 2% Severin, that would give Mitchell a +10 rating compared to affiliations.
In essence, for the purposes of this analysis, the baseline assumes that independents vote the same way and in the same proportions as affiliated voters in that precinct. The reality, of course, is a little different, but it's still a valid yardstick, imo. It shows the precincts where a candidate draws greater support than his opponent from independents (or from across party lines, but I can't measure that with these numbers). This is useful info for minority party candidates looking for areas in "enemy territory" where a campaign appearance might be fruitful, or for a majority party candidate looking for weak areas to shore up.
Out of 250 precincts, Mitchell did worse than the baseline in
What does this mean?
While he didn't win each precinct, he gained on Hayworth in 240 precincts! Which jibes with something I said in August - Mitchell didn't need to win in Scottsdale to beat Hayworth, he just had to make Hayworth's margin of victory in Scottsdale smaller than his (Mitchell's) margin of victory in Tempe.
He did so, and he did win.
That speaks to both a broad base of support and a tremendous Get Out The Vote effort by the Mitchell campaign and by the AZ Dems.
More analysis next week!
Have a great holiday!
Out of 250 precincts in CD5:
Harry Mitchell and JD Hayworth tied in 2 - Mesa 51 (274 votes each) and Pima (450 each).
They were less than 10 votes apart in 15 other precincts.
JD Hayworth won in 75 precincts; Harry Mitchell won 171. There were two precincts that had no votes recorded, Longmore (6 registered voters) and Canyon (0 registered voters).
171 Mitchell + 75 Hayworth + 2 ties + 2 no votes = 250 precincts accounted for.
Disclaimer: Now for the "preliminary" part.
One of the analyses that I performed was to compare the results of the voting with the registrations, which was enlightening, until I realized that I had used incomplete registration numbers for each precinct. I used only the "active" registrations for each precinct; unfortunately for the calculations, "inactive" registrations are still valid. The difference won't make a large difference in the analysis, but could affect it slightly. I'll update it next week, but even when using only the "active" numbers, the results are eye-opening.
As part of the analysis, I used as a baseline the registrations with declared affiliations and then compared that to the actual breakdown of the results.
For example, if a given precinct had 150 registered voters, 100 with affiliations, 60 Rep, 35 Dem, and 5 Libertarian, that would give a baseline of 60% Rep, 35% Dem, and 5% Lib. With a vote breakdown of 53% Hayworth, 45% Mitchell, and 2% Severin, that would give Mitchell a +10 rating compared to affiliations.
In essence, for the purposes of this analysis, the baseline assumes that independents vote the same way and in the same proportions as affiliated voters in that precinct. The reality, of course, is a little different, but it's still a valid yardstick, imo. It shows the precincts where a candidate draws greater support than his opponent from independents (or from across party lines, but I can't measure that with these numbers). This is useful info for minority party candidates looking for areas in "enemy territory" where a campaign appearance might be fruitful, or for a majority party candidate looking for weak areas to shore up.
Out of 250 precincts, Mitchell did worse than the baseline in
10.
What does this mean?
While he didn't win each precinct, he gained on Hayworth in 240 precincts! Which jibes with something I said in August - Mitchell didn't need to win in Scottsdale to beat Hayworth, he just had to make Hayworth's margin of victory in Scottsdale smaller than his (Mitchell's) margin of victory in Tempe.
He did so, and he did win.
That speaks to both a broad base of support and a tremendous Get Out The Vote effort by the Mitchell campaign and by the AZ Dems.
More analysis next week!
Have a great holiday!
Wednesday, December 06, 2006
JD Hayworth's Farewell Speech
Watched CSPAN for a little bit tonight, and was treated to the sight of JD's farewell speech on the House floor.
Actually, there were a few farewell speeches, as many of the outgoing members of the House Republican Study Group gave their speeches tonight. They saved JD for last, with Mike Pence (R-IN) introducing him as "the Sultan of Swat" and as "the cleanup hitter" of Republican speakers.
Hayworth was in fine form tonight (and I'm not being sarcastic, either :) .)
He started with a little bit of self-deprecating humor; first by agreeing with Rep. Pence's glowing introduction (to a round of laughter from the other members present), then by noting that he while he appreciated the sports reference (Babe Ruth was the "Sultan of Swat"), he no longer had the "Ruthian" girth.
He sounded a little wistful as he spoke about how he "involuntarily retired" from Congress, recounting a quote from a previous Congressman who stated that he left Congress due to health reasons - "The voters got sick of me."
The main part of his talk was mostly made up of praises of the Congress, the Founding Fathers, and the people of America.
His closing included expressions of thanks to his family, colleagues, and the people of Arizona.
During his speech, he said a couple of things that, well, if he had talked like this during the campaign, he might have won over enough Independent voters to have won the election.
The first was when he spoke about the agreements and disagreements in the House; he observed that such agreements and disagreements were part of the package of American democracy. He actually sounded wiser and more reasonable than I've ever heard him sound before.
Too bad for him that the reasonable words weren't turned into reasonable actions, and before the election.
The second thing that he said that indicated to me that he may have learned a little from this election cycle was when he said that "public service isn't always defined by public office."
Of course, it could just mean that he considers hosting a talk show, TV or radio, to be "public service."
Anyway, he really is a fine orator when he wants to be, and he wanted to be one tonight. I'll link to the appropriate part of the Congressional Record when today's proceedings are entered into it.
One other interesting observation: this really was a backslapping party and the praises the speakers heaped on one another were effusive, however, while everyone else was lauded for the "integrity" they brought to the RSC and to the Congress, that word was never used in a description of JD.
Just sayin'. :))
Jeb Hensarling (R-TX), the incoming chair of the House RSC, closed the Republican part of the evening's festivities by saying that "God made only one JD Hayworth."
A fact for which somewhere over 50% of his soon-to-be former constituents are very grateful.
Note: While this was his 'farewell' speech, the House has a little work left to do before adjourning for the holidays. He may have the opportunity to speak one more time.
Edit on 10 December to add:
The link to the Congressional Record page covering Hayworth's farewell is here. JD's section starts in the third column.
End edit.
Actually, there were a few farewell speeches, as many of the outgoing members of the House Republican Study Group gave their speeches tonight. They saved JD for last, with Mike Pence (R-IN) introducing him as "the Sultan of Swat" and as "the cleanup hitter" of Republican speakers.
Hayworth was in fine form tonight (and I'm not being sarcastic, either :) .)
He started with a little bit of self-deprecating humor; first by agreeing with Rep. Pence's glowing introduction (to a round of laughter from the other members present), then by noting that he while he appreciated the sports reference (Babe Ruth was the "Sultan of Swat"), he no longer had the "Ruthian" girth.
He sounded a little wistful as he spoke about how he "involuntarily retired" from Congress, recounting a quote from a previous Congressman who stated that he left Congress due to health reasons - "The voters got sick of me."
The main part of his talk was mostly made up of praises of the Congress, the Founding Fathers, and the people of America.
His closing included expressions of thanks to his family, colleagues, and the people of Arizona.
During his speech, he said a couple of things that, well, if he had talked like this during the campaign, he might have won over enough Independent voters to have won the election.
The first was when he spoke about the agreements and disagreements in the House; he observed that such agreements and disagreements were part of the package of American democracy. He actually sounded wiser and more reasonable than I've ever heard him sound before.
Too bad for him that the reasonable words weren't turned into reasonable actions, and before the election.
The second thing that he said that indicated to me that he may have learned a little from this election cycle was when he said that "public service isn't always defined by public office."
Of course, it could just mean that he considers hosting a talk show, TV or radio, to be "public service."
Anyway, he really is a fine orator when he wants to be, and he wanted to be one tonight. I'll link to the appropriate part of the Congressional Record when today's proceedings are entered into it.
One other interesting observation: this really was a backslapping party and the praises the speakers heaped on one another were effusive, however, while everyone else was lauded for the "integrity" they brought to the RSC and to the Congress, that word was never used in a description of JD.
Just sayin'. :))
Jeb Hensarling (R-TX), the incoming chair of the House RSC, closed the Republican part of the evening's festivities by saying that "God made only one JD Hayworth."
A fact for which somewhere over 50% of his soon-to-be former constituents are very grateful.
Note: While this was his 'farewell' speech, the House has a little work left to do before adjourning for the holidays. He may have the opportunity to speak one more time.
Edit on 10 December to add:
The link to the Congressional Record page covering Hayworth's farewell is here. JD's section starts in the third column.
End edit.
Monday, November 20, 2006
LD17/CD5 Happenings
At tonight's LD17 Democrats reorganization meeting, we elected our officers and state committeepersons.
Congrats to new LD17 Chair Doug Mings, Vice-Chairs Ed Hermes, Angie Crouse, Arthur Brodsky, and Lauren Kuby, Treasurer David Schwarz, and Secretary Letricia Mings on their elections. They're all hard-working and experienced activists who will bring the district to new heights (though, it must be said that with the election of 3 state legislators, 1 U.S. Congressman, a JP and a Constable, we did pretty well this fall. :)) )
I'd list the 21 state committeepersons, but I don't take notes that quickly. Not even close.
The bulk of the meeting time was consumed with the election of officers, though newly-elected State Representatives David Schapira and Ed Ableser gave a brief update on their activities since the election.
Though they have not yet been sworn in (January 8th!), they are preparing legislation so that they can hit the ground running.
Ed is working on measures to increase education access for lower-income students (modeled after Indiana's 21st Century Scholars program), water management issues, and increasing parity for mental health coverage by health insurers.
David is working on a bill that will raise the starting salary of new teachers and another measure that would require health insurers to cover doctor-recommended cancer screenings.
The next meeting is the holiday party on December 7th; if you want details, leave a comment and I'll get the info to you.
The place and time of the January meeting will be firmed up by time of the holiday party.
...In CD5 news, it seems that Harry Mitchell is doing the same thing that Ed and David are - getting ready to start his term at full speed.
From the Washington Post:
...Oh, and it's official, Harry Mitchell defeated JD Hayworth by over 7,000 votes. YES!!!!
When Harry Mitchell's official website goes up, I'll post a link here.
...Tomorrow, Tuesday, November 21, the Scottsdale City Council will be holding a meeting at 3 p.m. to interview and appoint people to various boards and commissions; at their regularly scheduled meeting at 5 p.m. mostly has a bunch of liquor license transfers and approval of the City's proposed 2007 Legislative Program.
I'll be attending tomorrow night, if only to move my focus to the local level now that the midterm elections are over.
Tentative topics for future meetings (all VERY subject to change):
In December: On the 12th, One Scottsdale hits the agenda again, as well as a proposal to consider a route other than Scottsdale Rd. for light rail.
In January: On the 16th, the report on the Loop 101 speeding ticket cameras is due; on the 30th, they're going after the strip clubs again.
Later!
Congrats to new LD17 Chair Doug Mings, Vice-Chairs Ed Hermes, Angie Crouse, Arthur Brodsky, and Lauren Kuby, Treasurer David Schwarz, and Secretary Letricia Mings on their elections. They're all hard-working and experienced activists who will bring the district to new heights (though, it must be said that with the election of 3 state legislators, 1 U.S. Congressman, a JP and a Constable, we did pretty well this fall. :)) )
I'd list the 21 state committeepersons, but I don't take notes that quickly. Not even close.
The bulk of the meeting time was consumed with the election of officers, though newly-elected State Representatives David Schapira and Ed Ableser gave a brief update on their activities since the election.
Though they have not yet been sworn in (January 8th!), they are preparing legislation so that they can hit the ground running.
Ed is working on measures to increase education access for lower-income students (modeled after Indiana's 21st Century Scholars program), water management issues, and increasing parity for mental health coverage by health insurers.
David is working on a bill that will raise the starting salary of new teachers and another measure that would require health insurers to cover doctor-recommended cancer screenings.
The next meeting is the holiday party on December 7th; if you want details, leave a comment and I'll get the info to you.
The place and time of the January meeting will be firmed up by time of the holiday party.
...In CD5 news, it seems that Harry Mitchell is doing the same thing that Ed and David are - getting ready to start his term at full speed.
From the Washington Post:
House leaders plan a major rollout of an ethics reform bill early next year...Democrats will put together an ethics package on the House floor piece by piece, allowing incoming freshmen to take charge of high-profile issues...Amendments aimed at reducing the influence of lobbyists would go to swing-district Democrats who campaigned on ethics themes. One is Mitchell, who unseated Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-Ariz.) in large part by stressing Hayworth's links to Abramoff...Ethics reform? For the guy who beat JD Hayworth, that's a VERY appropriate way to start.
...Oh, and it's official, Harry Mitchell defeated JD Hayworth by over 7,000 votes. YES!!!!
When Harry Mitchell's official website goes up, I'll post a link here.
...Tomorrow, Tuesday, November 21, the Scottsdale City Council will be holding a meeting at 3 p.m. to interview and appoint people to various boards and commissions; at their regularly scheduled meeting at 5 p.m. mostly has a bunch of liquor license transfers and approval of the City's proposed 2007 Legislative Program.
I'll be attending tomorrow night, if only to move my focus to the local level now that the midterm elections are over.
Tentative topics for future meetings (all VERY subject to change):
In December: On the 12th, One Scottsdale hits the agenda again, as well as a proposal to consider a route other than Scottsdale Rd. for light rail.
In January: On the 16th, the report on the Loop 101 speeding ticket cameras is due; on the 30th, they're going after the strip clubs again.
Later!
Sunday, November 19, 2006
Quick weekend news hits...
In JD Hayworth news, Geo at Geo's Precinct 134 picked up on something reported in the AZ Republic:
Apparently, JD lobbyed his colleagues in the House against John Shadegg's bid to become House Minority Whip, and did it as retribution for perceived slights against his image that were published prior to the election.
I don't know if it's true (hey, it's a 2nd- or 3rd-hand report of a rumor), but I find it believable.
Since the election, JD seems to be going through the pattern of basic stages of grief, DABDA.
Denial (check out his concession press release here.)
Anger (see: the AZ Rep article linked above, illustrating JD's penchant for blaming anyone other than himself for the election results)
Next up: Bargaining (should be entertaining to watch), followed by Depression (could be very scary), finally ending up with Acceptance.
If JD plans on ever running for office again, and I would be shocked if he didn't at least try to retake CD5 in 2008, he'd better reach "Acceptance" quickly and pull his head out of his a__ - the Republican Party forgives many things from its extremists, but tantrums/hatchet jobs on party loyalists aren't on the list.
...In more "uplifting" news, strippers, porn producers, and visually-oriented people everywhere are rejoicing today.
The FDA has lifted its ban on silicone breast implants.
Coming soon to newspapers, TV, billboards, and spam:
"Silicone - the real thing in fake boobs. Get yours now! Order by December 8th for Guaranteed Delivery By Christmas!"
Later!
Apparently, JD lobbyed his colleagues in the House against John Shadegg's bid to become House Minority Whip, and did it as retribution for perceived slights against his image that were published prior to the election.
I don't know if it's true (hey, it's a 2nd- or 3rd-hand report of a rumor), but I find it believable.
Since the election, JD seems to be going through the pattern of basic stages of grief, DABDA.
Denial (check out his concession press release here.)
Anger (see: the AZ Rep article linked above, illustrating JD's penchant for blaming anyone other than himself for the election results)
Next up: Bargaining (should be entertaining to watch), followed by Depression (could be very scary), finally ending up with Acceptance.
If JD plans on ever running for office again, and I would be shocked if he didn't at least try to retake CD5 in 2008, he'd better reach "Acceptance" quickly and pull his head out of his a__ - the Republican Party forgives many things from its extremists, but tantrums/hatchet jobs on party loyalists aren't on the list.
...In more "uplifting" news, strippers, porn producers, and visually-oriented people everywhere are rejoicing today.
The FDA has lifted its ban on silicone breast implants.
Coming soon to newspapers, TV, billboards, and spam:
"Silicone - the real thing in fake boobs. Get yours now! Order by December 8th for Guaranteed Delivery By Christmas!"
Later!
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
News Roundup for Wednesday, November 15
...with some opinions thrown in for good measure. :)
- - - Jack Abramoff went to federal prison today in PA. In an email to friends sent prior to entering the prison, he bemoaned the "nightmare political scandal" that he's involved in. (Yahoo! News)
Awwww.
- - - Robert Novak, like many, keeps associating JD Hayworth's (and others') loss last week with his stance on immigration. (Human Events)
He lost because he was a loud, mean-spirited, arrogant, deceptive blowhard whose favorite topic was immigration.
He lost because he campaigned on fear, distortions, and outright lies.
He lost because Harry Mitchell was a better candidate, and the voters of CD5 recognized that.
- - - The 2008 Presidential Prognostication Pundits are warming up their crystal balls already.
Novak did it, calling John McCain, Governor Tim Pawlenty of MN (both from the Republican side), Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Governor Brian Schweitzer of MT (from the Democratic side) the "winners" of the 2006 election cycle, and John Kerry and Mitt Romney, as well as the aforementioned immigration hawks, the "losers" of the cycle.
Of course, one week before the election, Darth Novak predicted that JD would win reelection.
- - - Of course, the 2010 Governor Guessing Game has begun in earnest, too.
Writing in the Phoenix Business Journal, Mike Sunnucks discusses potential candidates. He specifically mentioned Congressfolk JD, Rick Renzi, Jeff Flake, as well as Mary Peters and Rick Romley as possible Rep contenders, and Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon and AZ AG Terry Goddard as possible Dem aspirants.
Interestingly enough, a couple of us spoke about this very topic just last week. Our conversation was mostly about the Dem contenders, and we came to the same conclusions as Mr. Sunnucks about Phil Gordon's plans.
We saw the same "Phil Gordon is everywhere at once" phenomenon this cycle and thought that his efforts were for one of two reasons:
1. He's trying to increase his name recognition both with the Democratic Party faithful and with the voters in general; or
2. He's an attention whore.
In the end, we agreed that it was likely that both statements are accurate. :)
BTW - Rick Renzi as Governor???? I'm not even sure he'd consider it, unless the State of Arizona begins awarding defense contracts.
Mantech just wouldn't get enough of a return on their investment otherwise.
- - - In what was perhaps the least surprising news of the week, Arizona Senator Jon Kyl was elected as Republican Conference Chairman in the Senate.
- - - Writing in the Arizona Republic, Bob Schuster observes that by elevating uber-conservative Thayer Verschoor to the position of Senate Majority Leader, the AZGOP is sending a message to Governor Napolitano.
That message?? Get ready "for another long, needlessly contentious legislative session."
Anyway, more later!!
- - - Jack Abramoff went to federal prison today in PA. In an email to friends sent prior to entering the prison, he bemoaned the "nightmare political scandal" that he's involved in. (Yahoo! News)
Awwww.
- - - Robert Novak, like many, keeps associating JD Hayworth's (and others') loss last week with his stance on immigration. (Human Events)
He lost because he was a loud, mean-spirited, arrogant, deceptive blowhard whose favorite topic was immigration.
He lost because he campaigned on fear, distortions, and outright lies.
He lost because Harry Mitchell was a better candidate, and the voters of CD5 recognized that.
- - - The 2008 Presidential Prognostication Pundits are warming up their crystal balls already.
Novak did it, calling John McCain, Governor Tim Pawlenty of MN (both from the Republican side), Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Governor Brian Schweitzer of MT (from the Democratic side) the "winners" of the 2006 election cycle, and John Kerry and Mitt Romney, as well as the aforementioned immigration hawks, the "losers" of the cycle.
Of course, one week before the election, Darth Novak predicted that JD would win reelection.
- - - Of course, the 2010 Governor Guessing Game has begun in earnest, too.
Writing in the Phoenix Business Journal, Mike Sunnucks discusses potential candidates. He specifically mentioned Congressfolk JD, Rick Renzi, Jeff Flake, as well as Mary Peters and Rick Romley as possible Rep contenders, and Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon and AZ AG Terry Goddard as possible Dem aspirants.
Interestingly enough, a couple of us spoke about this very topic just last week. Our conversation was mostly about the Dem contenders, and we came to the same conclusions as Mr. Sunnucks about Phil Gordon's plans.
We saw the same "Phil Gordon is everywhere at once" phenomenon this cycle and thought that his efforts were for one of two reasons:
1. He's trying to increase his name recognition both with the Democratic Party faithful and with the voters in general; or
2. He's an attention whore.
In the end, we agreed that it was likely that both statements are accurate. :)
BTW - Rick Renzi as Governor???? I'm not even sure he'd consider it, unless the State of Arizona begins awarding defense contracts.
Mantech just wouldn't get enough of a return on their investment otherwise.
- - - In what was perhaps the least surprising news of the week, Arizona Senator Jon Kyl was elected as Republican Conference Chairman in the Senate.
- - - Writing in the Arizona Republic, Bob Schuster observes that by elevating uber-conservative Thayer Verschoor to the position of Senate Majority Leader, the AZGOP is sending a message to Governor Napolitano.
That message?? Get ready "for another long, needlessly contentious legislative session."
Anyway, more later!!
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