Trump analogy time: Less "Hitler" and more "pre-Hitler"

Godwin's Law, courtesy UrbanDictionary.com:

A term that originated on Usenet, Godwin's Law states that as an online argument grows longer and more heated, it becomes increasingly likely that somebody will bring up Adolf Hitler or the Nazis. When such an event occurs, the person guilty of invoking Godwin's Law has effectively forfeited the argument.

For the purposes to discussing the president-elect, Donald Trump, and/or his administration and advisors, I'm going to have to violate Godwin's Law, or simply consider it suspended for the duration.

The comparisons are too obvious to ignore.



The comparisons of Donald Trump to Adolph Hitler seem to me to be both a case of overreach and being premature.  He hasn't even taken office yet.

Nope.  While it's not a perfect analogy (any analogy is an imperfect comparison between two entities), right now he looks to most closely resemble Paul von Hindenburg.

Paul von Hindenburg, courtesy EncyclopediaBrittanica.com

Von Hindenburg was the second president of Germany (after WWI).

He wasn't Hitler (in fact, he died in 1934, years before the Nazis' greatest evils were fully realized).

However, he was the one who welcomed Hitler into the mainstream of German politics by making him Chancellor of Germany in 1933.

Unlike Trump (who was basically a draft dodger), von Hindenburg was a former field marshal in the German army in WWI.

Like Trump, he was reluctant to accept the responsibilities of his office.

Unlike Trump, he apparently cared about the country he was charged with leading.

Like Trump (who will be 70 on Inauguration Day in January), he wasn't exactly a young man when he first took office (76 years old).

No where did I find evidence of von Hindenburg being held responsible for the rise to power of Hitler and the Nazis; what he did was give them access to the levers of power in the early and middle 1930s.

Fast forward to 2016:

Trump is bringing in some utterly vile people around him, people like Mike Pence, Kris Kobach, Jeff Sessions, Michael Flynn, and others, all people who shouldn't be allowed near a position of public responsibility much less one of public trust.

Right now, none of them appear to be Hitler-like (though at least a couple of them look like wannabes), but when Trump leaves office over his ethical issues (of course, given his age, the term "medical issues" may serve as the preferred euphemism) look for one of them to at least try to assume dictatorial powers.


To critics:

Yes, I know this was (and is) a quick, almost superficial, look at one, very specific, part of the entire ugly situation.

Which is all that it is intended to be; in 50 years or so, historians will produce some very erudite and intellectual treatises that will use many more words to say the same thing.

Election Night 2016

9:50 -

There were 19 school district-related ballot questions in Maricopa County.

Right now, it looks like 15 will pass, 3 will go down, and 1 is still to close to call.

This is actually much better than average here.



9:30 -

In Scottsdale, all incumbents are on their way to reelection.

9:21 -

It looks like the AZ lege will tighten.  My read on races right now:

AZSenate - 14 R, 13 D, 3 too close to call.  If all three races in the "too close to call" category go D, then control flips.  16 - 14 R seems more likely, but this is far from over.

AZHouse - 33 R, 26 D, 1 too close to call.  The Rs retain control.

9:20 -

The Maricopa County Sheriff's race has been called for Paul Penzone!

8:06 - early votes only:

Maricopa County Sheriff: Penzone up over Arpaio big
Maricopa County Recorder: Fontes up over Purcell
CAWCD - Arboleda, Graff, and Holway all in the top 5
LD18 legislature - Bowie (senate) and Epstein (house) ahead
LD28 Senate - Meyer slightly ahead of Brophy-McGee
US Sen - McCain thumping Kirkpatrick
CorpComm - Not looking good for Mundell or Chabin
LD6 - Bagley (D) and Allen (tin foil) - too close to call
Ballot measures -
     Prop 205 (legalizing recreation marijuana) - losing
     Prop 206 (raising minimum wage) - winning


...is shaping up to be a lot like election night 2000.  Florida will be keeping us holding our collective breath...

Once AZ results start coming in, this post will be updated, with an focus on statewide, legislative, Maricopa County, and Scottsdale races.

Election 2016: It's almost over

In case you haven't noticed the wall-to-wall (but oh-so selective) media coverage, the incessant TV and radio ads (and spots on other media), the late night comedy, the hate-filled shouting, or have simply avoided even opening your mailbox for the last month or so,

There's an election coming up on Tuesday.  

:)

While millions of Americans have already voted (full disclosure time: I am one of those millions), millions more will be voting Tuesday.

If you haven't already done so, please make sure you vote on Tuesday.

In addition to a race for president that features two main candidates who present the starkest difference between two candidates for that office in US history, there are scores, in fact, hundreds, of down ballot races that have even more effect on our daily lives that are also up for election.

If you don't know where your polling place is (AZ only) -

Arizona SOS' polling place locator is here (This one should include all polling places in all counties, so if your county isn't listed below, use this one. It works for me here in Maricopa County)

Maricopa County's polling place locator is here

Pima County's polling place locator is here

Coconino County Elections page, including a list of polling places, is here

Apache County Elections page, including a list of polling places, is here

Santa Cruz County polling places are listed here


Other things to keep in mind in Arizona:

If you have an early ballot, it can be dropped off at any polling place in your county on Tuesday, and it will be counted.

If you vote in a precinct other than your own, you will have to cast a provisional ballot and IT WON'T BE COUNTED.

If there is a long line at your polling place, report it to your county party, and if you want your vote to be counted, STAY IN LINE.  If an elections official encourages/suggests that you leave and come back later, this is an attempt at voter suppression.

Period.

2016 may not be over quite yet, but positioning for 2018 has already started...

From the Arizona Republic, written by Laurie Roberts - 

What is it with these politicians and their ambitions?

Last week, it was Kelli Ward announcing that she’s running once again for the U.S. Senate in 2018 – this time trying to knock off Sen. Jeff Flake.

Now comes Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton, filing campaign papers to challenge Secretary of State Michele Reagan in 2018.

Stanton’s decision makes sense – even though it would be nice to get through 2016 before the angling begins for 2018.

Stanton, in a press release, says he's not really running for secretary of state. He just needed to create a state campaign committee in order to transfer remaining funds from his city campaign committee before Nov. 4, when a new state law will bar him from doing so.

As mentioned in the article, Stanton may not run for secretary of state - the governor's spot is also up for election in 2018.

Right now, Doug Ducey, the incumbent governor looks likely to run for and win reelection.  However, a lot can happen between now and the beginning of 2018.

Stanton (pic courtesy Phoenix.gov)

Not least of which is the election next week, which will impact who seeks what office in 2018.