In the tightly contested race to replace indicted, convicted, and imprisoned (whooo hoooo!) "Duke" Cunningham (R-CA), Republican Brian Bilbray narrowly defeated Democrat Francine Busby with 60,319 (49%) votes to his opponent's 55,587 (45%).
Here in AZ, both Reps and Dems are claiming to be buoyed by the results.
The Reps are drawing confidence from the fact that Bilbray's positions, particularly on immigration, are close to Senator Jon Kyl's and Rep. JD Hayworth, and also from the fact that the socio-economic demographics of CA CD50 are similar to Hayworth's AZ CD5.
"In California's 50th District, a district with similar demographics to District 5, voters soundly rejected a candidate espousing beliefs similar to [Harry] Mitchell," said Garrick Taylor, communications director for the Arizona Republican Party, referring to Busby.
On the other hand, the Dems are claiming a boost from the results, also. The vote differential was slightly less than 5% in a district where the percentage of Republican voter registrations outnumber those of Dems by 12 - 15% (depending on the source you use).
"I think it shows that voters are tired of the Republican culture of corruption. The Jack Abramoff corruption scandal hung like a cloud over the race. As a result, Bilbray only narrowly defeated Busby, in a district that is so overwhelmingly Republican, the New York Times said 'it shouldbe one of the safest Republican districts in the country,'" said Matt Weisman, communications director for the Arizona Democratic Party.
Personally, I think the results in CA might be something that the Kyl and Pederson campaigns (for U.S. Senate) will take note of, if only because the main issue of contention between them is immigration. Kyl is probably going to pound on it; Pederson needs to stop letting the Kyl campaign frame the debate.
However, the CA results are less meaningful in the AZ5 race between Hayworth and Mitchell. While J.D also is a very vocal hardliner against immigrants, he is seen as a corrupt blowhard with ties to indicted lobbyist Jack Abramhoff. Even many Republicans are uncomfortable with him, yet Harry Mitchell is well-liked by almost everyone. Except, perhaps, by those who have lost elections to him. :)
While corruption was an issue in the CA50 race, Bilbray wasn't tied to it.
Ultimately, the campaign that receives the biggest boost from Bilbray's win is (surprise, surprise!) the Bilbray for Congress campaign. He may have won the special election, but only to serve out the remainder of Cunningham's term. He still has to run in the November election to win a term of his own. This week's victory means that he gets to run (and raise money) as an incumbent.
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