Metro Phoenix lagging behind other metro areas in recovering from the recession

...as if those of us who live here haven't figured that out already.

Brookings Mountain West, a partnership between the Brookings Institute, a Washington D.C. think tank, and the University of Nevada - Las Vegas (UNLV), today released its quarterly Mountain Monitor, tracking and evaluating economic data for the Intermountain West area (Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah).

The latest Monitor covers the fourth quarter of 2010.

Based on their research, it's evident that the pre-bubbleburst growth fueled by the economic focus on home construction is now inhibiting the recovery of the Mountain West metro areas, particularly Las Vegas, Boise, and, of course, Phoenix.

From the Monitor -

The severest downturns foreshadowed the weakest recoveries in the Mountain Region. Reflecting the structural nature of a recession whose origins lay in an inflated housing bubble, the boomtown metros that fell the hardest are finding it the most difficult to turn around. In this category fall Boise, Las Vegas,  Phoenix, and, to a lesser extent, Tucson. On the other hand, Albuquerque, which stood apart with a temperate pre-recession housing boom and a well-educated, public sector-oriented workforce, weathered the mildest recession in the region.

The data shows that while metro Phoenix is among the leaders when it comes to job growth, ranking 7th nationally out of the top 100 metro areas in new jobs created (+1.5%) since its trough (Q3 2009) and 3rd nationally in growth between the Q3 and Q4 2010 (+0.7%), it ranks 87th nationally relative to its employment peak (Q3 2007), down 10.6% (national average: -5.3%; largest 100 metro areas average: -6.3%).

This chart, from Brookings Mountain West, charts the relative employment numbers for the Phoenix area over the course of four recent recessions, with 100% indicating the employment level at the beginning of the recessions.  Historically, 12 quarters (three years) after the start of a recession, we are well into a period of sustained net employment growth. 

Not so this time around.




Phoenix' Gross Metropolitan Product, or GMP, a measure of the area's economic activity, is still down significantly from its peak, and GMP growth here is lagging that of most of the other metro areas.  There may be a few new jobs here, but they aren't translating into a stronger economy.

While metro Phoenix ranked 7th in terms of shrinking the number of bank or lender-owned properties (aka - foreclosure inventory), it's still 98th nationally in terms the total proportion of such properties (meaning that only 2 out of the top 100 metro areas have a larger proportion of their properties owned by financial institutions.  Simply put, we have a large excess housing capacity but as yet, we don't have the economic growth needed to absorb that excess.

That's an economic reality that's reflected in the fact that home prices here are still plummeting.

Given that so much of Phoenix' past (and current) economic growth scheme was based building homes for new residents and that we don't have the sort of employment base to attract people who are young enough that they don't spend their days golfing, it looks as if the economic recovery here will be slow, intermittent, and protracted.

Other data (from the Phoenix snapshot from Brookings) -

                                                  Phoenix          Rank*           100-metro average           U.S. average

Unemployment

Unemployment rate               8.4 %              46                        9.1 %                             9.1 %

Three-year percentage point change in unemployment rate
                                                4.5 points       67                     4.5 points                       4.3 points

One-year percentage point change in unemployment rate
                                                0.1 points      76                      -0.4 points                       -0.6 points
 
 
Gross metropolitan product (GMP is defined as the market value of all final goods and services produced within a metropolitan area in a given period of time)

Change in GMP from peak
(2007Q4)                                -3.0 %              84                     0.9 %                               1.5 %

Change in GMP from trough
(2009Q3)                                  4.1 %             65                      4.2 %                              6.6 %

One-quarter change in GMP 0.4 %            86                      0.8 %                              0.8 %
 
 
Housing prices

Change in housing prices from peak
(2006Q4)                                   -48.2 %         92                      -23.6 %                          -18.5 %

Change in housing prices from trough
(2010Q4)                                      0.0 %         47                        0.0 %                              0.0 %

One-year change in housing prices
                                                    -10.6 %       98                        -3.4 %                             -3.0 %

One-quarter change in housing prices
                                                      -4.0 %     100                        -1.2 %                              -1.2 %


Real estate owned properties (REOs) (Bank or other financial institution owned)

REOs per 1,000 mortgageable properties
                                                       14.84        98                          5.19                                  4.23

One-quarter change in REOs per 1,000 mortgageable properties
                                                        -1.31        7                           -0.39                                 -0.33
 
* - Rank is out of the top 100 metro areas.  A rank of "1" indicates the strongest performance in a given category; a rank of "100" indicates the weakest performance in a given category.
 
 
Phoenix' snapshot page can be found here; Tucson's here; snapshots for other metro areas can be found here.
 
A powerpoint presentation on Arizona's economic recovery from the Arizona Legislature's Joint Legislative Budget Committee (JLBC) is here.  While it tracks different data than Brookings does, and there aren't any comparisons with other states/metro areas, the conclusion from looking at JLBC's report is similar to the conclusion based on the  "Mountain Monitor" - while there are glimmers of economic life here (slightly increased employment [Brookings], increased sales tax revenue [JLBC]), Arizona's recovery is a weak one so far.

Census numbers - Arizona's Legislative and Congressional Districts

All information available at the Census Bureau's American Factfinder page (watch the instructional videos, trust me :) )...

Census numbers for the state's 30 legislative districts -

Geographic area                    Total population


Arizona                                   6,392,017

LD1 (2010)                                 217,022


LD2 (2010)                                 177,904

LD3 (2010)                                 216,687

LD4 (2010)                                 294,239

LD5 (2010)                                 192,258

LD6 (2010)                                 219,170

LD7 (2010)                                 190,272

LD8 (2010)                                 185,419

LD9 (2010)                                 178,499

LD10 (2010)                               163,683

LD11 (2010)                               161,630

LD12 (2010)                               378,298

LD13 (2010)                               207,107

LD14 (2010)                               158,881

LD15 (2010)                               155,897

LD16 (2010)                              247,146

LD17 (2010)                              171,129

LD18 (2010)                              165,729

LD19 (2010)                              195,221

LD20 (2010)                              176,043

LD21 (2010)                              274,260

LD22 (2010)                              297,687

LD23 (2010)                              370,479

LD24 (2010)                              207,694

LD25 (2010)                              208,220

LD26 (2010)                              195,881

LD27 (2010)                              199,340

LD28 (2010)                              170,527

LD29 (2010)                              184,459

LD30 (2010)                              231,236

Average                                   213,067


A map of the current LDs is here.

Most LDs should experience significant changes to their borders, but with many LDs, significant changes are guaranteed because their populations vary significantly from the average, and the new legislative districts have to be pretty much the same size.  There can be a little variation, but it's small.

Looking at the raw numbers of residents in each legislative district, a few things are obvious - LD12 (western Maricopa County), LD21, LD22 (both SE metro Phoenix), and LD23 (mostly Pinal County, but reaching into Maricopa) are going to be split up - they're far too big to continue in anything resembling their current forms.

Also likely to see significant changes are current Phoenix-area LDs 8, 14, 15, 17, 18 and 20 - all have populations significantly below the average of 213K.  The areas covered by those LDs will absorb or be absorbed by other areas.

Tucson-area LDs 26, 28, and 29 are in the same boat as the Phoenix-area LDs above.


Congressional districts -

Geographic area                         Total population

Arizona                                         6,392,017


CD 1                                                 774,310

CD 2                                                 972,839

CD 3                                                 707,919

CD 4                                                 698,314

CD 5                                                 656,833

CD 6                                                 971,733

CD 7                                                 855,769

CD 8                                                 754,300

Current average (for 8 CDs)         799,002

New average (for 9 CDs)              710,224


Map of the current Congressional districts here.

In some ways, tea leaf reading when looking at potential changes to lege districts is easy - there are 30 LDs now, and there will be 30 LDs after redistricting.

Looking at potential changes to Congressional districts is more difficult because there are 8 districts now but there are going to be 9 after redistricting.  Once the new district is carved out (expected to be in the East Valley/Pinal County area or in the West Valley, in the area where the current CDs 2 and 7 meet), there will be a cascade effect of changes to all of the other CDs, and I cannot even begin to predict those changes.

Expect significant changes to all CDs.

More on that as the redistricting process grinds on...

Arizona Legislature Week In Review...

The non-legislatiion highlights of the week:

- Senate President Russell Pearce announced that his "hold" on his anti-immigrant legislation was off.  Last week, he had announced that those bills would be "held" until the state's budget was completed.  I could speculate on his reasons for rescinding the hold (nativist orthodoxy is more important to him than fiscal responsibility?  ...the budget negotiations between Pearce, House Speaker Kirk Adams, and Governor Jan Brewer aren't going as smoothly as some thought?), but the end result is the same - the nasty stuff is moving again.

- State Sen. Scott Bundgaard (R-Domestic Violence Incident) is spinning as fast as he can.  He's gone from sending out press releases proclaiming his "good guy" status, to tearing up on the Senate floor, to staving off removal as the leader of the Republican caucus in the Senate by claiming that his now ex-girlfriend, Aubry Ballard, pulled a gun on him during the incident that has precipitated the furor that currently surrounds him.

Now, he is giving interviews where he displays a pistol that he claims is the gun in question, and is promising "more" details to come.

If there are many more "details" like those that Bundgaard has spouted so far, next year, Jason Rose is going to be eligible for an Oscar for his writing.


Passing the Senate this week ("party line vote" = bill passed with all Rs supporting and all Ds opposing):

SB1553, school vouchers, under the name of "Arizona Empowerment Accounts" - party line vote


SB1561, giving the legislature the ability to sweep and reappropriate "non-custodial" federal monies such as community block grants - party line vote

SCR1027, a proposed amendment to the Arizona Constitution to require that voters reauthorize any ballot measures that reserve or expend monies for a specific purpose (things like First Things First, placing AHCCCS eligibility at 100% of FPL, mandatory education funding, etc.) - party line vote

SCR1051, a proposed amendment to the Arizona Constitution to mandate that any voter-approved measure (initiative or referendum) that doesn't identify a funding source other than the state's general fund, then the measure is subject to legislative appropriation (or non-appropriation, as is more likely); a move to circumvent the Voter Protection Act, without seeming to do so - party line vote

SB1188, mandating that when placing children for adoption, DES must give preference to married couples.  Single people will need to jump through some serious hoops, and same sex couples need not apply - mostly a party line vote (one R crossover)

SB1288, giving professionals who refuse to do their jobs properly because of their religious beliefs an out - they get to keep their licenses.  Plus there is a clause that is clearly targeted at the Arizona Commission on Appellate Court Appointments for refusing to approve a candidate for the Independent Redistricting Commission when that candidate stated that he wanted more religious involvement in/control of secular society - party line vote.

SB1329, barring public employees from engaging in lobbying or political activities during work hours.  Aimed at teachers - party line vote.

SB1363, protecting employers from the horror of labor actions - party line vote.

SB1495, establishing a state guard that is answerable only to the governor, but is funded by money siphoned from the Arizona National Guard - party line vote.

SB1598, micromanaging the ability of cities and counties to conduct zoning, inspection, and related regulatory activities, to the point of it becoming the "inability" to do so - passed on a party line vote.

SB1610, proclaiming the Colt Single Action Army Revolver as the official state firearm - passed 18 - 12 (three Rs crossing over).

SCR1026, a proposed amendment to the AZ constitution reducing the state's revenue expenditure limit, basically a version of TABOR - party line vote.

SCR1040, a proposed amendment to the AZ constitution politicizing judicial appointments - passed 19 - 11 (2 Rs crossing over).

SB1282, exempting religious entities that engage in political activities from having to register as political committees - party line vote.

SB1365, barring payroll deductions for political purposes, targeted at unions, except for those for law enforcement personnel (there's a specific exception carved out for LEO organizations) - party line vote.

SCR1016, calling for a constitutional convention to amend the U.S. Constitution to mandate that the approval of a majority of state legislatures is required before Congress can raise the federal debt limit - FAILED 13 - 17 (8 Rs crossing over).

SB1433, creating a legislative committee to oversee the nullification of federal laws and regulations - FAILED 12 -  18 (9 Rs crossing over).  YES!!!

SCR1019, another TABOR-like amendment proposed for the AZ constitution - party line vote.

SCR1029, banning photo radar from Arizona - passed 18 - 12 (3 Rs crossing over)

SCR1032, a proposed amendment to the AZ constitution to require a 60% vote of the voters to raise a tax, levy a new tax, or to reduce or eliminate an existing tax credit - passed 16 - 14 (5 Rs crossing over)


Passed the House -
HB2523, expanding current law so that someone driving on a license that is suspended or revoked for any reason who is involved in an accident resulting in death or injury is guilty of a class four or class five felony - passed on reconsideration, with bipartisan support and opposition.

HB2707, further shackling state expenditures (TABOR by another name) - mostly party line vote (three Rs crossed over).

HCM2002, a postcard to the U.S. Congress requesting that they take the gray wolf off of the Endangered Species List - party line vote.

HB2565, giving students the right to not do coursework, if they cite religious belief as their reason - mostly a party line vote (1 D crossed over).
 
HB2718, Kirk Adams' $5 million gift to Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu - mostly a party line vote (1 D crossed over).
 
HB2099, restoring hospice care coverage to AHCCCS; expected to be cost neutral - passed 38 - 22 (18 Rs crossed over).  Yes, an actual good bill has passed a chamber of the legislature in 2011.
 
HB2501, micromanaging state agencies, counties, and municipalities by mandating that any ambiguous language in a rule, ordinance, or law be interpreted in a manner favorable to applicants or licensees (relating to permits, licenses, and zoning) - a mostly party line vote (1 D and 1 R crossed each way).
 
HB2581, expanding and basically uncapping STO tax credits - mostly a party line vote (1 R crossed over).
 
HB2617, limiting the ability of workers involved in workers' comp cases to reopen cases if something new but related arises - party line vote.
 
 
In non-legislature campaign news this week -
 
- Maricopa County Supervisor Don Stapley has formed a campaign committee for reelection to his seat (SD2)
 
- Jean McGrath, former legislator and current member of the governing board of the Central Arizona Project, has formed a committee to run for the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors District 4.  SD4 is currently represented by Max Wilson.  A call to Wilson's office inquiring about his plans for next year went unreturned.
 
- Timothy Coomer of Phoenix has formed a committee to run for Maricopa County Sheriff next year as a Democrat.  He's done this before.
 
 
 

More 2010 Census Numbers - Cities and Towns

This past week, the U.S. Census Bureau released Arizona's 2010 local level census data.

On Thursday, I put up a quick post on county population numbers.  Summary: Maricopa  County grew during the decade, but not as much as some of the other counties.

Today, raw numbers for the 20 largest cities and towns, with brief analysis.

Cities and towns -

City                        pop 2000          pop 2010        

Phoenix               1,321,045          1,445,632


Tucson                 486,699              520,116

Mesa                     396,375              439,041

Chandler               176,581              236,123

Glendale               218,812               226,721

Scottsdale            202,705               217,385

Gilbert                   109,697               208,453

Tempe                   158,625               161,719

Peoria                    108,364               154,065

Surprise                  30,848               117,517

Yuma                      77,515                 93,064

Avondale              35,883                 76,238

Flagstaff                52,894                 65,870

Goodyear               18,911                65,275

Lake Havasu City 41,938                52,527

Buckeye                   6,537                50,876

Casa Grande          25,224                48,571

Sierra Vista            37,775                43,888

Maricopa                1,040                 43,482

Oro Valley             29,700                41,011


The most recent "official" Census Bureau estimates that I could find for cities and towns were from 2006, so those are somewhat less useful than the 2009 county estimates used in the previous post.

However, even those showed some interesting developments.

...Scottsdale (my home) had a 2006 estimate of over 231K, and late in the decade was operating under the belief that the population was between 230K and 240K.  The City (electeds, staff, most residents) expected that the 2010 Census would show that Scottsdale would rank 5th, maybe even 4th, in population.

The reality of the 2010 census shows that Chandler and Glendale are easily ahead of it, while Gilbert is gaining fast

...In terms of percentage growth, the Town of Maricopa (which, strangely enough, is NOT in Maricopa County :) ), grew by more than 4000% during the decade, from a population of 1,040 in the year 2000, to a population of 43,482 in 2010.  It is now the "City of Maricopa," officially.

...Of the cities that were "cities" in 2000, Surprise led the way in percentage growth during the decade at more than 280%.  It grew from 30,848 people in 2000 to 117,517 in 2010.

...The City of Phoenix experienced the greatest raw growth, growing by 124,587 during the decade.  However, Phoenix was and remains far and away the largest city in the state, so their percentage growth only 9.4%.

...Of the top 20 cities and towns, Tempe experienced the smallest growth, both as a percentage of year 2000 population and in absolute numbers.  During the decade, it grew by 3,094, or 2%.  It's one of the few completely land-locked municipalities in the state, so it doesn't really have anywhere to grow.  Most of the other cities and towns in the state contain or border on unincorporated areas that can be annexed.

Tempe does contain four "county islands," land that is not incorporated into the city but is completely surrounded by it.  However, those are fairly small, and even if Tempe was interested in adding those locations to it, the additional land area (<100 parcels of land) and population count wouldn't make a significant difference.


Legislative and Congressional districts next...

Bundgaard in full spin mode

State Sen. Scott Bundgaard (R-Domestic Violence Incident) has spent most of the week trying to keep his positions as a state senator and as Republican majority leader in the state senate.

Thus far, he has been successful (barely!) at fending off moves to replace him as majority leader and has not even hinted that he is repentant enough to resign his position.

However, the sharks are circling, and instead of maintain a quiet profile, he has been churning up the waters, putting out outlandish press releases and giving dubious interviews.

His PR flack put out a press release loudly proclaiming that Bundgaard had "aced" a polygraph test administered by someone hired by the Bundgaard camp (the Arizona Republic's EJ Montini has his take here; Donna at Democratic Diva has her take here; Tedski at Rum, Romanism and Rebellion has his take here.)

Then on Friday, he sat down with Laurie Roberts, another Arizona Republic columnist and gave an interview where he presented a gun in a plastic baggy, claiming that it was the gun that his now ex-girlfriend Aubry Ballard pulled on his during the infamous incident on SR-51 two weeks ago.

He even did this in front of a camera crew from KPNX, Phoenix channel 12 (the Republic and KPNX are both owned by Gannett).

Now, I'm not overly familiar with police evidence handling protocols (and I actually consider that to be a good thing), but it seems strange that they would give a vital piece of evidence in the investigation of a possible serious crime to one of the people involved in that possible crime.

A fact serving to further undermine Bundgaard's credibility is the fact that a gun isn't mentioned *anywhere* in the police report about the incident.

Another fact serving to undermine his credibility is that the story of a "gun" didn't come out until pressure from his own Republican colleagues to step aside as majority leader came to a head on Tuesday during a closed-door meeting called to discuss his status.

During the video shown on KPNX, Bundgaard and his flack promised that more facts on the incident would come out next week.

Given the way that his "facts" are destroying his political future, perhaps Bundgaard should fire his current PR flack and hire one whose one and only instruction to Bundgaard is -

SHUT THE [BLEEP] UP!

Jus' sayin'...

What state lends an official platform to hate groups? Why, Arizona, of course.

Normally, I'd save a discussion of an agenda item for a legislative committee agenda for a "coming week" post, but this one rates a quick post of its own.

On Thursday, the Arizona Senate's Border Security, Federalism, and States Sovereignty Committee will meet in SHR109 at 9 a.m.

The agenda for the meeting only contains two bills (thus far, anyway) -

HB2718, House Speaker Kirk Adams' $5 million gift to Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu, and HCM2002, a postcard to Congress asking that the gray wolf be removed from the Endangered Species List.

If those were the only two items on the agenda, while they are "colorful" and would rate individual mention in the weekly schedule post, that would be it.

However, this is Arizona, where the prevailing attitude at the legislature seems to be "why settle for 'colorful' when you can let your freak flag fly?"

Also on the agenda?  Two presentations to the committee.

One looks relatively innocuous ("relatively" based on this committee's admittedly skewed-toward-batsh_t-crazy standards) - "State of Texas: Border Security Update (powerpoint)".

Assuming the source of the powerpoint is the actual State of Texas, it probably won't be worse than simple propaganda masquerading as an "official" analysis (don't gasp at the impudence - like a significant portion of the Republican caucus of the Arizona legislature, Texas' governor has some strongly secessionist tendencies.)

The other presentation, however, is nothing more than giving a known hate group a taxpayer-funded pulpit from which to spew its bile.

"Glenn Spencer, President of American Border Patrol:  Arizona/Mexico Border -- An Assessment"

When I first glanced at the agenda, I figured "OK, Texas and the Border Patrol" - it'll be a dog-and-pony show, but nothing more than that.

Then I noticed a few discrepancies - *the* Border Patrol is referred to as the U.S. Border Patrol, or maybe "Customs and Border Protection" (its official name); it doesn't have a "President" - the head of the agency is called "Commissioner,"; and "Glenn Spencer" is NOT the Commissioner.

Hmmm....

A quick, but very enlightening search turned up this report on the "American Border Patrol" from the Southern Poverty Law Center.

From the report -

American Border Patrol/American Patrol (the first-listed group was essentially an Arizona extension of American Patrol, which is also known as Voice of Citizens Together) is one of the most virulent anti-immigrant groups around. On the American Patrol website and in self-produced videos, the group rails against Mexican immigrants, accusing them of bringing to the U.S. crime, drugs and squalor and of practicing “immigration via the birth canal.” Mexicans, in the words of group founder Glenn Spencer, are a “cultural cancer” following a secret plan, the Plan de Aztlán, to complete “la reconquista” (the reconquest, or takeover) of the American Southwest, which was once controlled by Spain and/or Mexico.

Glenn Spencer is so colorful in his own right, he rates his own profile from SPLC.


From his profile -

In 2008, Spencer expanded from his usual angry attacks on Latinos to furious, explicitly racist and anti-Semitic tirades. Just before Christmas, Spencer issued a nearly hysterical Web posting entitled "Obama Threatens Nation," in which he described the incoming Obama Administration as "prepared to make a frontal assault on the sovereignty of the United States." In fact, he said, "Barack Obama represents the greatest threat to the United States of America since the Civil War. Brainwashed Americans have just voted to commit national suicide." The same month, Spencer wrote an article on his website with another provocative title: "Is Jew-Controlled Hollywood Brainwashing Americans?" In it, he assured readers that he had Jewish friends but added: "I fear, however, that this small handful of patriotic Americans are far outnumbered by liberal Jews who now have total control over our media."

I know 9 a.m. is early for popcorn, but if you can't make it down to the Capitol Thursday morning, pop some popcorn, point your computer's browser at the lege's website for the streaming video, put your feet up, and enjoy the horror show.

I have to wonder how much the taxpayers of Arizona are paying for this shameful event.  Even if Spencer is travelling from Sierra Vista on his own dime (and there's no guarantee of that), there are costs associated with setting up and holding a legislative hearing.


Later...
.

In case you missed it: member of Pearce-associated group arrested for atttempted bombing of MLK Day parade

In January, someone planted a shrapnel-filled pipe bomb along the planned route of a parade commemorating Martin Luther King Day.  The device was discovered by parade workers (you know, some of the public employees that are under such a virulent attack by Koch-fueled Republicans) and defused before it could harm any parade-goers.

This week, an arrest was made in the case.  One Kevin Harpham was arrested for  illegal possession of an explosive device and attempting to use a weapon of mass destruction.

As the Southern Poverty Law Center reports, as recently as late 2004, Harpham was a member of the neo-Nazi/white supremacist group National Alliance.  Because of the secretive nature of such organizations, so far it is unclear how long Harpham was a member before that time, or if he still is a member.

As recently at fall 2006, Russell Pearce, then a state representative, now president of the Arizona State Senate, campaigned for reelection by forwarding emails from...wait for it...

National Alliance.

Of course.

Maricopa County Losing Influence*

* Maricopa County is still Arizona's "big dog" and is still growing, but AZ's other "dogs" grew more from 2000 to 2010.  Given that the overall "pie" of Arizona didn't get any bigger, that means that Maricopa is getting a slightly smaller part of that pie.

Over a month ago, the Census Bureau held a conference call where they talked about some of the 2010 census numbers that were already available to them.

The post about that call is here.

During the call, one point that piqued my interest was that the vast majority of the state "actual" totals were close to what had been estimated by statisticians.  34 of the 50 states were within +/- 1%, and 46 of 50 were within +/- 2% of 2010 estimates.

Only one state was more than 2% below estimate.

That state?

Arizona.  Of course.

Graph courtesy the U.S. Census Bureau.












The local level data released Thursday by the Census Bureau shines some light on that phenomenon.

While the state's actual count total came in more than 203K below the estimate, the variance wasn't evenly spread out across the state (based on 2009 estimates because I couldn't find the 2010 estimates, and this is only a rough analysis.  The Census Bureau is sure to put out a far more detailed analysis in the coming months).

The state's total drop from 2009 estimate was >203K; more than 206K of that total, or more than the statewide total difference, was in Maricopa County alone.

With the actual numbers, Maricopa County contains 59.7% of the state's population; the 2009 estimates (and the Census Bureau's statisticians are pretty good at estimating) showed Maricopa County with 62% of the state's population.  Not only that, Maricopa County didn't even hold the percentage that it had after the 2000 census, dropping to 59.7% from 59.9%. 

.2% doesn't sound like a big deal, until we remember that Maricopa County is the population, political and economic hub of Arizona.  A small loss here translates to large gains elsewhere.  In this case, the biggest beneficiary is Pinal County, which grew by more than 109% between 2000 and 2010, and saw its share of the state's population grow by more than 2.37%.

Some of the raw data ("difference" is the difference between the 2010 actual number and the 2009 estimate) -


Geographic Area       pop 2000     pop 2010     pop est 2009  difference

Arizona                     5,130,632      6,392,017      6,595,778           - 203,761


Maricopa County    3,072,149      3,817,117      4,023,132          - 206,015


Pima County               843,746          980,263      1,020,200          - 39,937

Pinal County               179,727         375,770         340,962             34,808

Yavapai County         167,517         211,033         215.686             - 4,653

Mohave County        155,032         200,186         194,825                5,361

Yuma County             160,026         195,751         196,972              - 1,221

Coconino County      116,320         134,421         129,849                4,572

Cochise County         117,755          131,346        129,518                1,828

Navajo County            97,470          107,449         112,975             - 5,526

Apache County          69,423            71,518           70,591                   927

Gila County                 51,335            53,597            52,199               1,398

Santa Cruz County    38,381            47,420             43,771              3,649

Graham County         33,489            37,220             37,045                 175

La Paz County           19,715            20,489            20,012                  477

Greenlee County         8,547             8,437               8,041                 396

Numbers on some of the cities and towns tomorrow...

Arizona's census data released

I'm still sorting through the data - it's available on the Census website as three very large zipped files and is a bit of a pain in the _ _ _ to work with.

However, Ronald Hansen of the Arizona Republic already has a story up.  It contains some bad news for Russell Pearce and his fellow travelers.

From the story -

Soaring numbers of Hispanics and overall growth in Phoenix and the West Valley helped make Arizona the second-fastest growing state in the nation, newly released census data show.

Arizona had nearly 1.9 million Hispanic residents as of April 1, 2010, and their share of the overall population rose to 29.6 percent. It was 25.3 percent in 2000. The total count of Hispanics rose by nearly 600,000 over the decade.

Oopsie.  Maybe it's time for SB1070 and its siblings to come back and bite the Rs in the butt.

Anyway, an interactive map with some top-level data, courtesy the Census Bureau -



The complete data files can be found here; if you go that route, read the "readme" file (aka - the directions) and visit the Census Bureau's "Tech Tips" site here.

Total population, by county (courtesy the U.S. Census Bureau)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
Percent change, by county (Courtesy the U.S. Census Bureau)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
More analysis later...

Live blogging the Arizona Senate, March 10, 2011

3:11 p.m. - Measure passes 21 - 9, but mixed opposition and support.  Going into COW, and I will be going home.

3:08 p.m. - Reconsidering SB1279, which failed once.  Looks like it may pass this time around. 

3:04 p.m. - Internet connection lost for a few minutes there.  SCR1032, requiring a 60% vote of the voters to pass a new tax or increase an existing one, passed 16 - 12.

2:57 p.m. - SCR1029, banning photo radar in Arizona.  Passes 18 - 12.

2:56 p.m. - SCR1019, TABOR, passes on a party line vote.  No energy left in the room apparently.

2:52 p.m. - Pearce says that "we're no longer the free-est nation."  I'm guessing the author of the infamous blacklist is not one who appreciates irony.  Measure fails 13 - 17.

2:48 p.m. - Sen. Russell Pearce explaining his vote now.

2:47 p.m. - 30 minutes voting on this one measure.  Measure now failing again.

2:45 p.m. - Sen. Andy Biggs is speaking in opposition.

2:40 p.m. - Apparently, the four-corners offense is working - the measure is passing right now.  Sen. Rick Murphy is speaking now.

2:38 p.m. - Sen. Ron Gould up, but he's opposing the measure.  Not the *concept,* but he believes that this proposal is too broad and too open to hijacking by other interests.

2:31 p.m. - Sen. Nancy Barto, measure sponsor, is up.

2:30 p.m. - The measure is failing, so now it is Sen. Frank Antenori's turn to keep the vote open.

2:26 p.m. - Her mic quits, so she switches to Sen. Bundgaard's (he's here today, BTW), and finishes her speech.

2:24 p.m. - Allen still going on - "This is not about opening the Constitution to change.  It's about amending the Constitution."  For the record, Sen. Sylvia Allen is now my favorite conservative speaker.  :))

2:17 p.m. - SCR1016, calling for a US constitutional convention to require the approval of a majority of state legislatures before the federal debt limit can be raised.  Sen. Sylvia Allen rambling a little as she goes on about why she supports the measure.  "Oil is now at a dollar-four".  I can feel the brain cells seizing up.

2:11 p.m. - SB1499, relating to "probate proceedings, omnibus."  Passed, Gould and Biggs opposing.

2:04 p.m. - SB1430, relating to changes in towing rules, goes down 9 - 21.  Not sure why.  Most or all Ds opposed, as did a majority of Rs.  Not sure why.

1:55 p.m. - SB1365, no payroll deductions for political purposes, an anti-union bill.  Sen. Kyrsten Sinema points out that a law enforcement exemption in the bill could make it legally untenable, but it passes on a party line vote anyway.

1:52 p.m. - SB1282, exempting religious entities from having to register as political committees even if they attempt to influence elections.  Sen. Linda Lopez points out that this measure is another one sponsored by the Center for Arizona Theocracy Policy.  Passes on a party line vote, with no Rs rising to go on record with their justification of it.

1:47 p.m. - Right now, they are voting on some relatively non-controversial measures (in other words, they are passing unanimously)...

Little victories...

...VERY little, but these days, it's not to be overlooked...

On Tuesday, I put up a post highlighting the fact that while the Arizona Senate, led by Russell Pearce, was keeping the flag of the United States in deep shadow, they made sure that Arizona's flag was bathed in bright light.

Methinks the post struck a nerve.

The Senate's US flag on Tuesday -

That same US flag today -





Tempe firm among three Arizona companies fined by EPA for hazardous waste violations

The U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has announced that three Phoenix-area companies have been fined a total of $131,000 for various violations related to the handling and disposal of hazardous waste products.

“We impose strict environmental controls to make sure hazardous waste is properly handled,” said Jared Blumenfeld, EPA’s Regional Administrator for the Pacific Southwest.

Acme Aerospace, located in Tempe, was fined $31K.  It is a subsidiary of North Carolina-based Acme Electric, which is in turn a subsidiary of Key Components, Inc. of Tarrytown, NY (no website available, but some info here from the State of New York).

The other companies fined by the EPA:

AZZ Galvanizing Services of Goodyear - $79,700

Hexcel Corporation of Casa Grande - $20,000


While one can make a strong argument for Goodyear being considered a "Phoenix area" location, most Arizonans wouldn't consider Casa Grande to be part of the Phoenix metro area.

Especially residents of Casa Grande.  :)


Related info:

Acme Aerospace, while in Tempe, is located outside of area of the South Indian Bend Wash NPL (National Priorities List) site in Tempe (ADEQ map here; informational overview here).

Arizona-located NPL sites are here and here.


Note:  I live in the North Indian Bend Wash Superfund Area (NIBW), hence the reason that the Tempe location of one of the companies caught my eye. :)

Later...

Wisconsin Republicans Try End Around Play To Roll Back Collective Bargaining Rights For Public Employees

Their play may be more "hail mary" than "end around," but either way, if it works, they'll be slapping themselves on the back for months, even years.

From the Seattle Times -

Wisconsin Senate Republicans used a surprise legislative maneuver to pass a bill that would strip collective-bargaining rights from most public-sector workers — a move accomplished without the 14 Democratic senators who had fled the state to stall the measure.


Republicans voted 18-1 Wednesday night to pass nonfiscal provisions of the budget-repair bill — including those that would eliminate or severely limit collective-bargaining rights for most public employees.

Republicans control the Senate but had been blocked from voting on the issue after Democrats left the state Feb. 17 to prevent a quorum. Instead, Republicans used a procedural maneuver to force the collective-bargaining measure through: They removed elements of Gov. Scott Walker's bill that technically were related to appropriating funds, thus removing a requirement that 20 senators be present for a vote.

The move seems to be patently illegal (caveat: I'm not a lawyer, and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night :) ).  They went to a conference committee on a bill that hadn't even been considered yet, used that committee to split the original bill, and then reported the new bill back to the WI Senate for a vote.  Additionally, they violated all sorts of public notice laws during the entire process.

However, cynic that I am, I'm not sure this isn't just strategy.

If they can use this to entice the Wisconsin 14 to reenter the state, then they could pass the original measure legally, and just ignore the illegal version, avoiding a public slapping down by a court of law.

Later...

Brewer "vacations" in Alaska, now Palin might be moving to Scottsdale?

From Politico's Ben Smith -

Palin would base campaign in Scottsdale


The prospect of Sarah Palin running for president is, increasingly, dismissed by a political class that sees her facing weak poll numbers -- especially in key early states -- and doing nothing to correct them or to buil the infrastructure for a run.

But I'm told Palin's camp is, at least, holding preliminary talks about how a campaign would look if she decides to run. One early decision, a source says: It would be based in Scottsdale, Arizona, very near where Bristol Palin recently bought a house in Maricopa.

Hey, I suppose we should be grateful - Jan Brewer "vacationed" in Alaska, and now unemployed Republican operatives here are cackling in gleeful anticipation of getting a piece of the big money of a presidential campaign.

Now, if only Brewer would "vacation" with someone who will bring good jobs for average Arizonans...

Quick legislative update, March 9, 2011 -

What a difference a day makes...

...On Tuesday, Sen. Scott Bundgaard (R-Domestic Violence Incident) was securely ensconced as the leader of the Republican majority in the Senate, having successfully rebuffed any move to depose him because of the furor surrounding him.

On Wednesday, James King of the Phoenix New Times reported that Bundgaard is all but gone as majority leader, not least because a number of his colleagues aren't buying the story he spun Tuesday, that his girlfriend pulled a gun on him on the night of the incident that has precipitated the angst around him.


...On Tuesday, Senate President Russell Pearce's "hold" on his anti-immigrant bill until the state's budget is complete.

On Wednesday (actually, Tuesday night, but that doesn't fit in with the theme of this post :) ), he was moving the bills at full speed again.

Not really a surprise, but something of a disappointment - eternal optimist that I am, I had 6 days in the pool*. 

The "hold" lasted less than four days, and the lege wasn't even meeting on three of those days (Friday, Saturday, Sunday).


...On Tuesday, Scott Bundgaard was at work all day.

On Wednesday, he seems to have missed every vote.

Hmmm...


Gaining final passage in the Senate on Wednesday:

SB1553, school vouchers, under the name of "Arizona Empowerment Accounts" - party line vote

SB1561, giving the legislature the ability to sweep and reappropriate "non-custodial" federal monies such as community block grants - party line vote

SCR1027, a proposed amendment to the Arizona Constitution to require that voters reauthorize any ballot measures that reserve or expend monies for a specific purpose (things like First Things First, placing AHCCCS eligibility at 100% of FPL, mandatory education funding, etc.) - party line vote

SCR1051, a proposed amendment to the Arizona Constitution to mandate that any voter-approved measure (initiative or referendum) that doesn't identify a funding source other than the state's general fund, then the measure is subject to legislative appropriation (or non-appropriation, as is more likely); a move to circumvent the Voter Protection Act, without seeming to do so - party line vote


Passed the House on Wednesday -

HB2523, expanding current law so that someone driving on a  license that is suspended or revoked for any reason who is involved in an accident resulting in death or injury is guilty of a class four or class five felony - passed on reconsideration, with bipartisan support and opposition

HB2707, further shackling state expenditures (TABOR by another name) - mostly party line vote (three Rs crossed over)

HCM2002, a postcard to the U.S. Congress requesting that they take the gray wolf off of the Endangered Species List - party line vote


...On Thursday, look for -

SB1282, exempting religious entities from registering as a political committee if it doesn't spend a "substantial" amount of its time or assets on attempts to influence elections. (Senate Third Read)

SB1365, banning payroll deductions for political purposes; aimed at unions. (Senate Third Read)

SCR1016, calling for a U.S. constitutional convention to pass an amendment to the U.S. Constitution requiring that Congress gain the approval of a majority of state legislatures to approve before the federal debt limit is increased. (Senate Third Read)

SCR1019, a proposed amendment to the Arizona Constitution to lower the state's revenue expenditure limit; another TABOR bill. (Senate Third Read)

SCR1029, a proposed referendum to permanently ban photo enforcement of traffic laws in Arizona (Senate Third Read)

SCR1032, a proposed amendment to the Arizona Constitution to raise the passage threshold for ballot measure that raise or impose a tax from the current simply majority (50% + 1 vote) to a supermajority of 60%.  (Senate Third Read)

HB2484, taking the authority to fill legislative vacancies away from county boards of supervisors and giving it to the precinct committeement of the party of the vacating member of the legislature of that particular legislative district.  (House Third Read)

HB2501, mandating that if a rule adopted by a government agency or a law or ordinance adopted by a county or municipality, relating to permits, licenses, or zoning, is ambiguous, then that rule, law, or ordinance must be interpreted in favor of the applicant.  (House Third Read)

HB2581, expanding the STO tax credit.  (House Third Read)

HB2701, mandating that counties utilize the same reporting format when transmitting elections data to the Secretary of State; sounds harmless, but it is the brainchild of Jeff Dial, the Republican legislator who proposed a measure to ostracize poor people by mandating that food stamp cards be bright orange and identify the holder as a welfare recipient in big, bold, black lettering; in other words, while I don't know what brand of shoe is involved, I'm sure it's about to drop. (House Third Read)


* - Metaphor only, no actual gambling was taking place.  :)