All information available at the Census Bureau's American Factfinder page (watch the instructional videos, trust me :) )...
Census numbers for the state's 30 legislative districts -
Geographic area Total population
Arizona 6,392,017
LD1 (2010) 217,022
LD2 (2010) 177,904
LD3 (2010) 216,687
LD4 (2010) 294,239
LD5 (2010) 192,258
LD6 (2010) 219,170
LD7 (2010) 190,272
LD8 (2010) 185,419
LD9 (2010) 178,499
LD10 (2010) 163,683
LD11 (2010) 161,630
LD12 (2010) 378,298
LD13 (2010) 207,107
LD14 (2010) 158,881
LD15 (2010) 155,897
LD16 (2010) 247,146
LD17 (2010) 171,129
LD18 (2010) 165,729
LD19 (2010) 195,221
LD20 (2010) 176,043
LD21 (2010) 274,260
LD22 (2010) 297,687
LD23 (2010) 370,479
LD24 (2010) 207,694
LD25 (2010) 208,220
LD26 (2010) 195,881
LD27 (2010) 199,340
LD28 (2010) 170,527
LD29 (2010) 184,459
LD30 (2010) 231,236
Average 213,067
A map of the current LDs is here.
Most LDs should experience significant changes to their borders, but with many LDs, significant changes are guaranteed because their populations vary significantly from the average, and the new legislative districts have to be pretty much the same size. There can be a little variation, but it's small.
Looking at the raw numbers of residents in each legislative district, a few things are obvious - LD12 (western Maricopa County), LD21, LD22 (both SE metro Phoenix), and LD23 (mostly Pinal County, but reaching into Maricopa) are going to be split up - they're far too big to continue in anything resembling their current forms.
Also likely to see significant changes are current Phoenix-area LDs 8, 14, 15, 17, 18 and 20 - all have populations significantly below the average of 213K. The areas covered by those LDs will absorb or be absorbed by other areas.
Tucson-area LDs 26, 28, and 29 are in the same boat as the Phoenix-area LDs above.
Congressional districts -
Geographic area Total population
Arizona 6,392,017
CD 1 774,310
CD 2 972,839
CD 3 707,919
CD 4 698,314
CD 5 656,833
CD 6 971,733
CD 7 855,769
CD 8 754,300
Current average (for 8 CDs) 799,002
New average (for 9 CDs) 710,224
Map of the current Congressional districts here.
In some ways, tea leaf reading when looking at potential changes to lege districts is easy - there are 30 LDs now, and there will be 30 LDs after redistricting.
Looking at potential changes to Congressional districts is more difficult because there are 8 districts now but there are going to be 9 after redistricting. Once the new district is carved out (expected to be in the East Valley/Pinal County area or in the West Valley, in the area where the current CDs 2 and 7 meet), there will be a cascade effect of changes to all of the other CDs, and I cannot even begin to predict those changes.
Expect significant changes to all CDs.
More on that as the redistricting process grinds on...
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