Saturday, August 03, 2013

Split District: LD8

LD8 is a geographically large district that covers a significant part of Pinal County and part of Gila County.  The area that it covers is mostly rural and exurban.  Its largest communities are Casa Grande (48583 residents, per the 2010 census), Maricopa (43482), and Florence (25526).

In terms of current voter registration, it is a competitive district, with 28615 registered Democrats, 23747 Republicans, and 27443 Independents (aka - "Other").  The pre-election 2012 numbers were similar, with a slightly wider Democratic advantage.

Perhaps as a result of its relatively even partisan split, LD8 is one of the three AZ legislative districts with a partisan split in its delegation to the state capitol.

In 2012, it elected Democrat Barbara McGuire to the senate seat from LD8 and Republicans TJ Shope and Frank Pratt to the LD8 House seats.

McGuire is easily the most conservative member of the Democratic caucus.  In most any other state, she'd be a moderate R, but the AZGOP is so far out on the political fringe, she has to be a Democrat here.

Don't know much about Pratt or Shope, other than that Pratt is running for the AZ Corporation Commission next year and that both voted for Medicaid restoration in this year's budget.

Other district-related data, relating to the 2012 elections (general election; primary election):

- In the 2012 presidential election, Barack Obama lost the district by slightly less than 9% of the vote; he lost the state by slightly more than 9%.

- In the 2012 US Senate race, Richard Carmona lost the district by a little less than 1% of the vote; he lost the state by slightly more than 3%.

- McGuire defeated Republican Joe Ortiz 25026 to 23542 for the Senate seat.

- In the House races, Pratt received 24195 and Shope received 22102, defeating Democrats Ernest Bustamante (21258) and Emily Verdugo (20102).

As of this writing, no non-incumbent candidates have opened committees for the district, but that should change in a district that's this closely contested.

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