Friday, August 02, 2013

Split District: LD28

Legislative District 28 encompasses parts of northeast, east and central Phoenix as well as Paradise Valley, all within Maricopa County.

In terms of voter registration, it is solidly Republican; current voter registration figures show that there are 34858 Ds, 49209 Rs, and 36973 Independents ("Other" in AZ voter reg parlance) in the district.  The numbers in 2012 were similar.

However, it is one of the few districts in the state with a partisan split in its delegation to the legislature (LDs 8 and 9 are the other two).  In 2012, it elected Democrat Eric Meyer and Republican Kate Brophy McGee to the Arizona House of Representatives (Republican Adam Driggs won the district's seat in the Senate).

It should be noted that the LD28 Rs may still be somewhat ticked off by Meyer's victory.

From the LD28 Rs' website -

But I digress... :)

Other district-related data, relating to the 2012 elections (general election; primary election):

- In the 2012 presidential election, Barack Obama lost the district by slightly less than 9% of the vote; he lost the state by slightly more than 9%.

- In the 2012 US Senate race, Richard Carmona lost the district by slightly more than 3%; he also lost the state by slightly more than 3%.

- In the 2012 AZ House race,  Brophy McGee (R) received 46228 votes and Meyer (D) received 43081, defeating Amanda Reeve (R), who received 41102 votes.  All three were unchallenged in their respective primaries.

- In the 2012 AZ Senate race, Adam Driggs (R) received 49160 votes, defeating Eric Shelley (D), who received 39243 votes. Both were unchallenged in their primaries.

The district, while solidly R based on registration, tends to send representatives to the Capitol who are a bit more "middle of the road" than the perception of the caucuses in the legislature -

Rep. Eric Meyer (D) is widely considered to be the most pragmatic/moderate member of the Democratic caucus, which is regarded as the reason he is able to win in the district (well, that and the fact that he works his a** off, both in office and on the campaign trail).

On the other side of the aisle, Rep. Brophy McGee and Sen. Driggs have come under fire for their votes in support of Medicaid restoration in this year's budget.  In addition, while they are thoroughly conservative Republicans, they aren't ideological morons and will, on occasion, do the right thing for their constituents and the state.

Which tends to tick off the ideological morons who make up the majority of the R caucus.

This has all combined to inspire an interesting mix of early entry challengers (all Rs and all House candidates so far) to open committees for legislative runs in the district -

Mary Hamway, a former member of the Paradise Valley Town Council

Shawnna Bolick, a 2010 candidate for the legislature and the wife of Clint Bolick, a senior operative at the corporate lobbying firm "free market think tank" The Goldwater Institute.

John Douglas Wilenchik, who seems to be a political newbie, but a well-connected one - his father is Dennis Wilenchik, who was the personal fixer/hatchet man for disgraced and disbarred former Maricopa County Attorney (and erstwhile 2014 candidate for governor) Andrew Thomas.

Things could change between now and next year, but unlike 2012, a primary battle looks likely here.  Stay tuned...

Evan Wyloge and Hank Stephenson of the Arizona Capitol Times have a more focused piece, on the website of the Arizona Center for Investigative Media.

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