Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Musings on yesterday's primary results...

Since I so willingly spouted off with predictions before the vote results came in, it's only right that I dissect the accuracy (or inaccuracy) of those predictions.

On to the post-mortem...

R Senate primary prediction: McCain, with a caveat that it might not be the blowout that it should be.  Reality: At a 24 point margin (almost 122K votes), this race *was* the blowout it should have been.

D Senate primary prediction: Parraz in a squeaker, though I left open the possibility that Glassman could hold on.  Reality:  turns out that the caveat about Glassman was a good one.  He, in fact, did hold on to win...over Cathy Eden.  Parraz came in fourth, and it wasn't even a close fourth.  Even though I knew better (internal poll numbers are *always* suspect...argghhhh!), I bit hard on the numbers that the Parraz campaign released showing him in a solid second place, within the margin of error.

I can promise that I won't make that mistake again during this election cycle.

R CD3 prediction: "Got no clue, other than it won't be Quayle. Even R primary voters want more substance in a candidate."  Reality: an even bigger miss than with Parraz in the D Senate primary.  That's what I get for overestimating Republican voters.

I can promise that I won't make that mistake again, during this or any other cycle.

R CD5 prediction: Dead on with Schweikert.  Questioned whether Ward would hold on to 2nd place, which he is right now by approximately 570 votes over Bitter Smith.

D SOS prediction: Wercinski.  Reality: Deschene, and it wasn't close.  The margin is more than 60K votes right now.  Wercinski ran an energetic campaign, and I saw more of his campaign than of Deschene's.  Turns out that there is more to the state than Maricopa County.  Who knew?  :)

D AG prediction: Rotellini.  Reality: so far correct, but Rotellini's lead over Lujan is only 1375 votes.

R AG prediction:  Horne. Reality: Horne's ahead, but this race makes the Democratic race look like a blowout.  Horne is currently up 454 votes statewide.  Attribute the closeness of this one to Thomas' fame (and access to Joe Arpaio's deep campaign coffers) in the largest county in Arizona, Maricopa.  Thomas finished ahead in Maricopa County by 4669 votes.

R Superintendent of Public Instruction prediction: Huppenthal.  Reality: Huppenthal.  I didn't think it would be close, and it wasn't.

D Superintendent of Public Instruction prediction: too close to call.  Reality: Kotterman easily.  The margin surprised me, but Kotterman's victory did not.  The reason for my hesitance when making predictions was that four years ago. Slade Mead seemed to have the D nod locked up and most observers underestimated Williams' campaign skills.  Yes, I made a mistake, but it was an understandable and even reasonable one, I think.

R Maricopa County Attorney prediction: Romley, though Montgomery could make it interesting.  Reality: Montgomery won easily.  The biggest surprise was that while this was a "turnout" win (meaning that the hard right wing of the Republican Party was motivated to get out and vote), it didn't help JD Hayworth (politically, very similar to Montgomery).  In the Senate race, Hayworth lost Maricopa County by 24 points, the same margin as he lost statewide.

For at least the next two years, Joe Arpaio has another patsy in the CA's office.

Overall evaluation of my predictive abilities:  Mixed.  Mostly OK, with appropriate caveats in the races I wasn't sure about, but also made a couple of glaring pure misses (Parraz not finishing higher in the D Senate race, Quayle winning in CD3).

Live and (hopefully) learn...

1 comment:

Pamela Jai Powers said...

I was surprised how well Kotterman and Deschene trounced their opponents.

Given Arizona's current pro-white fevor, the Secretary of State race will be fascinating. Deschene is smart, well-qualified, and a *real* Native Arizonan-- unlike any of the doughy white boys the Republicans are promoting. :)