Warning: this post is mostly borne out of the fact that I am feeling under the weather and don't have the energy for anything more in-depth...
In addition to the previously mentioned names of folks entering the Rep primary to replace John Shadegg in Congress (Sens. Gorman and Waring, Rep. Crump, Mayor Parker, and Blogger Noble), other, more obscure names have been floated as having an interest. I make no guarantees about the accuracy of these sources (including the one where I'm the source).
Some of the names that are out there -
...Benjamin Quayle, the lawyer son of former U.S. VP Dan Quayle. My guess is that with a lawyer's education, he knows how to spell "potato" but I wonder if he learned the other main lesson of his father's career in elected office - don't get into an argument with a fictional character...and lose?
...Tom Smith, founder of TASER (source: the same New Times' article linked to Ben Quayle's name)
...Ed Winkler, former Mayor of Paradise Valley. May have even less name rec than the current mayor, Vernon Parker. At 65, Winkler is 5 years older than Shadegg, the man who is retiring. Not sure what that says about either of them.
The above-named contenders would be dark horses even if they actually enter the race, but I'm going to throw out a name just for giggles who would make the above dark horses look like Secretariat (and if you don't understand that reference, you are too young for my cliches :) ).
John Keegan, the Justice of the Peace for the Arrowhead Justice Precinct. Keegan gained some notoriety early in 2009 for throwing out the photo radar-generated ticket received by AZGOP Executive Director Brett Mecum. He is also known for being married to GOP operative/former State Superintendant of Public Instruction Lisa Graham Keegan (who, I suppose, could also choose to make a run at CD3.) So far as I know, neither Keegan lives in CD3, but that is a non-factor under Arizona law.
Keegan announced that he won't be seeking reelection as a JP in order to re-enter private business or to "pursue some other opportunity."
CD3 would certainly qualify as "some other opportunity."
It should be noted that the above Keegan entry is purely idle speculation on my part. I have no concrete evidence that Keegan is even remotely interested in the CD3 seat, much less seriously mulling a run. He's just an elected official who isn't running for reelection to his current office.
That's just an open invitation to wiseass bloggers like me. :)
Edit on 1/31 to add something I forgot to add while I was originally writing this post:
Folks should also remember that Keegan was a candidate for CD2 in 2002, coming in a respectable 3rd in a seven-way Republican primary, behind Lisa Atkins and eventual winner Trent Franks.
The first group of names (Gorman et. al.) qualify as "first tier" candidates as except for Noble, they currently hold (or extremely recently held) elected offices in the district. Noble makes the "first tier" list if he enters the race because of his close ties to Shadegg - he used to be Shadegg's chief of staff.
The newer names qualify as "second tier" because they are first-time candidates (Quayle, Smith), former office holders (Winkler), or are from outside of the district (the Keegans.)
However, any of them could move into serious contention if they enter the race and have good advisors - Quayle and Smith have access to tons o' cash, Winkler may have light name rec in the district, but he does have some, and the Keegans, especially Lisa, have ties to John McCain and may be able to call on his support if Noble doesn't enter the race.
Of course, the GOP in CD3, especially that in LD11 (McCain's home LD), is so fractured that McCain's support could impede, not help, a candidate.
Heh heh heh - and it's only January. :)