Saturday, October 25, 2008

Impressive Democratic registration gains

Another one of those boring 'numbers' posts, but since I like the numbers in question... :))

All numbers taken from the Arizona Secretary of State's October 2006 and October 2008 voter registration reports.

Across the state, the Democratic Party has shown significant gains in voter registration, frequently outpacing any Republican gains by a margin of four or five to one in some districts. (PoliickerAZ coverage here)

In the Scottsdale/Tempe/Mesa area, the gains were both consistent and pronounced -

CD5 - 108,300 Democrats, 146,691 Republicans

In two years, CD5 Democrats gained almost 14,000 registrations, taking the gap from over 52K to just over 38K.

That gain, as well as an increase of nearly 17K Independent voters in CD5 is definitely positive news for centrist incumbent Harry Mitchell.

LD17 - 30,096 Democrats, 26,433 Republicans

In two years, LD17 Democrats turned a registration shortfall of 970 into an advantage of over 3600.

Definitely good news for State Sen. Meg Burton-Cahill and State Reps. David Schapira and Ed Ableser.

LD8 - 29,161 Democrats, 56,474 Republicans

In two years, LD8 Democrats gained over 2300 voters on the Republicans in the district; in addition, there are more than 5400 more independent voters in the district. While Stephanie Rimmer still faces an uphill battle in her quest for an LD8 House seat, that seat is well within the realm of reachable.

LD18 - 17,780 Democrats, 26,558 Republicans

In two years, the Democrats in LD18 have gained almost 2900 registrations on the Reps. Combine that with the fact that the LD18 Republicans were almost total slackers in registering new voters (they gained 813, or 3.1%, the Reps in the other area districts gained more than 5% each), and Tammie Pursley and Judah Nativio are in prime position to make LD18 purple, if not blue.

Of course, the brutal Rep primary between Russell Pearce (R-National Alliance) and Kevin Gibbons (R-Jeff Flake's brother-in-law) and the resultant divisions among the Rep faithful in the district doesn't hurt their chances, either.

All in all, some very encouraging numbers for the Democrats in the area (though LD8 will still be a tough nut to crack).

However, with John McCain at the top of the Rep ticket, Democrats will still need every available vote.

As such, there are precincts to walk in, doors to knock on, and phone calls to place.


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