Thursday, February 07, 2008

Here and there - elections notes

...The numbers are incomplete because not every county has posted early voting (EV) results on their websites (or, in Navajo County's case, the results are given in an almost unreadable format), but the pattern is clear - Hillary Clinton won in Arizona because of early votes.

In the five counties for which I could find clear data (Cochise, Maricopa, Pima, Yavapai, and Yuma), Clinton had a clear advantage in early votes over Barack Obama. In fact, her EV advantage in Maricopa County, 20,790, exceeded her total advantage in the county, 18,170.

Not sure what it means, other than that every campaign involved in the fall elections is paying attention.

...Early votes helped Clinton/hurt Obama in another way - John Edwards received over 21,000 votes, the vast majority of them early votes. Most of the Edwards supporters that I know switched their support to Obama when Edwards dropped out. Most of those that didn't were like me in that they couldn't switch because they had already voted.

Depending on where they came from, the 21,000 votes that Edwards received might have garnered Obama one or two more delegates. In a race this close, that might make the difference.

...Barack Obama won two counties (Coconino and Yavapai) and one Congressional District (CD5),

...Note that I haven't used the word "lose" when describing the results, because neither one lost anything in Arizona. According to the Arizona Democratic Party, Clinton won 26 Arizona delegates on Tuesday; Obama won 20.

...However, the MSM hasn't been so picky about using the word "loser" in relation to Tuesday's results. It's a strong word that attracts eyes, but considering that most of the Democratic primaries/caucuses award delegates on a proportional basis, it's also a lazy word.

...In addition to the usual descriptions of one or another candidate "winning" or "losing" a state, the word "loser" has been used to describe various endorsers of Senator Obama, such as Arizona's own Governor Janet Napolitano.

From the Washington Post's The Fix (thanks to the AZ Rep's Political Insider for pointing this out) -

Janet Napolitano: The Arizona governor went out on a limb to back Obama and was featured in the Illinois senator's closing ads in the state. In the end, however, Napolitano wasn't able to deliver her state for Obama, a high-profile setback for a politician with clear aspirations for a spot on the national ticket.

She may not have "delivered" the state, but even if the Obama had received the most votes ("winning" the state), Arizona's delegates are awarded proportionally. Winning the state only means a couple of additional delegates.

Of more significance is the fact that Obama went from 14% support in November (according to this Rocky Mountain Poll) to over 41% in February 5th's election.

That change probably doubled, possibly tripled, Obama's Arizona delegate count.

Governor Napolitano may not have "delivered" the state, but states don't matter in this race, delegates do.

...While the MSM tries to spin Tuesday's results as a win for Clinton, it seems that many people disagree - for week's the Obama campaigning has been receiving more donations than the Clinton campaign, including *after* Tuesday. Of course, no matter what the various spin doctors have to say, Clinton realizes how tight the race really is - she's loaned her campaign over $5 million dollars.

Stay tuned...

...On a more local note, the AZ Republic has endorsed Corey Woods, Rhett Wilson, and Julie Jakubek in the race for Tempe City Council. Congrats to all three on the endorsements.

Note - early voting in Tempe's election started today.


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