Quick thoughts on November in LD17

and a bit on LD8.

You can see the LD17 results in the post below this one.

I have one observation that I think bodes well for the chances of the Democrats (Ed Ableser, David Schapira, and Meg Burton-Cahill) of LD17 to sweep the seats in the general election.

Votes cast in the Republican Representative primary race: 11,187.
Votes cast in the Republican Senate race: 5,206

Votes cast in the Democratic Representative primary race: 11,324.
Votes cast in the Democratic Senate race: 6,060.

The numbers are encouraging - the Republicans had a race for the nomination for Governor to and the Scottsdale proposition to draw out their base.

And still more Dems voted.

In the November election, the Democrats will have Tempe's (and LD17's) own Harry Mitchell and the popular, partisan demographic-busting, Governor Napolitano to draw even more voters out.

Mix in a little coattail voting and you have a recipe for a sweep.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure that will help up in LD8. The Reps' registration advantage is just too great, and Carolyn Allen (the apparent winner of the Rep nomination for Senate there) is too well-financed.

And she's "moderate" (by AZGOP standards, anyway) enough to poach a lot of Independent voters from the Democrats.

Dan Oseran will need all the help he can get to defeat Allen, as will Stephanie Rimmer and Bill Sandberg as they go against (apparently) Michele Reagan and John Kavanagh for the State Rep seats.

...Oh, and one disappointment for the day:

The numbers won't be available for a few days, but turnout was VERY low.

In my precinct alone, Grace in Scottsdale, the turnout was approximately 160 or so. It was 115 at 3:30, and I was there until 6. Traffic picked up a little after 5 for a little while, but was still slow. "160" total is a best guess.

Out of 1,474 registered voters (as of June 2006).

Mail in and Early Voting numbers will raise that a bit, but we are still looking at less than 15% turnout.

:((

Good night everyone!