In a decision that may endear the normally-reasonable 9th Circuit of the U.S. Court of Appeals to Jon Kyl enough to get him to stop trying to dismantle it (S1296, 2005), the Court ruled that federal agents "may use the names of 104 players who tested positive in supposedly anonymous testing in 2003, shooting down the MLB Players Association's attempts to keep the names private."
Naturally, the MLBPA disagrees with the decision and is almost certain to appeal. The press release from MLBPA is here.
The test results were supposed to be confidential and anonymous, and strictly for the purpose of MLB determining the prevalence of steroid use among its players.
I fully expect that if the players knew that the test results and their names were going to end up in the hands of federal investigators, the tests wouldn't have happened in the first place.
The importance of all of this?
If the lawyers of the very well-funded MLBPA can't fight off government lawyers, what chance does a small testing company or even an individual have when government investigators decide to go fishing through the records of other employment-related drug tests? Or other, more general, personal medical records?
The 9th Circuit's decision seems to fly in the face of the Supreme Court's decision in Treasury Employees v. Von Raab, 489 U.S. 656 (1989), in which the Court decreed that "test results may not be used in a criminal prosecution without the employee's consent." No such consent was given here.
This decision, while chilling at first (and second and third and so on) glance, could have the effect of undermining the legality of all employer drug testing programs, because now it can be argued that the tests compel employees and applicants for employment to give evidence against themselves. That in fact, employers are acting as agents of the government when they compel people to incriminate themselves by surrendering body tissues/fluids for testing.
I thought about writing to my Congressman, Harry Mitchell, over this, but decided not to do so. I honestly have to believe that the DLC/Corporatist/Republican-types will very quickly address this with a bill if it isn't overturned on appeal.
While they surely love the idea of the government having access to all non-corporate personal records, they won't stand for anything that imperils corporate control of their employees/prospective employees.
Actually, on second thought, I think I will send the Congressman a letter about this. These federal investigators need to know that people are watching them, and watching closely.
Good night!
Thursday, December 28, 2006
Early bill submissions for LD17, LD18, and LD8
Last night's post about the Republican attempt to cut a quarter billion dollars from public education, SB1027, inspired me to look into what other bills have been submitted already.
My focus is on LD17 (my district), LD8 (north Scottsdale), and LD18 (Mesa) because those are the closest to me. Other districts are available on the Lege's website, just click on the Representative or Senator that you are interested in.
The brief summaries of the bills are NOT meant to be definitive; I haven't read any cross-referenced sections of the law.
If the bill addresses a topic of interest to you, read the text of the bill for yourself. If the area is one of interest to you, you'll probably understand the bill better than I do, anyway. :)
The list (note: most of these are co-sponsorships, not solo submittals):
LD17 -
Sen. Meg Burton-Cahill (D): none listed yet.
Rep. Ed Ableser (D): none listed yet.
Rep. David Schapira (D): none listed yet.
LD8 -
Sen. Carolyn Allen (R): SB1032, a bill indemnifying hospitals and their employees from liability for "any civil or other damages as a result of any act or omission", under certain conditions.
Rep. Michele Reagan (R): SCR1002, an amendment to the state constitution stating that public schools and teachers are "not subject to punitive damages for any act or failure to act related to classroom discipline."
Rep. John Kavanagh (R): A group of "technical correction" bills...
HB2001 - Relating to poison control
HB2002 - Relating to the taxation of common areas owned by homeowners' and/or community associations.
HB2003 - Relating to individual income tax credits for water conservation systems.
HB2004 - Relating to common school districts.
HB2005 - Relating to schools and property taxes (this one looks like a tense correction of a single word.)
HB2006 - Relating to public health and safety.
HB2007 - Relating to general election ballot.
HB2008 - Relating to contractors.
HB2009 - Relating to insurance.
HB2010 - Relating to state parks enhancement fund.
LD18 -
Sen. Karen Johnson (R): none listed yet. I know it won't last, but Thank God.
Rep. Russell Pearce (R): SB1027 (already discussed) and SB1028, a bill to accelerate Class One property tax reduction.
Rep. Mark Anderson (R): none listed yet.
Summary:
On the surface, it looks as if the Democrats in the lege aren't doing anything to prepare for the coming session, and the Republicans (especially Kavanagh) are hitting the ground running.
Then, a check of all of the Democrats in the lege shows that none of them have bills listed yet, even though I know that most of them have already prepared some.
The fact that the Rep leadership of both chambers of the state lege isn't allowing Democrats to even submit bills seems to be an indication that the Republicans are still more interested in the basest partisanship than in governance.
Also, a check of the bills that have Rep. Kavanagh listed as a sponsor show that most of them have no real legislative substance to them. "Technical corrections" bills are a great way to pad his "bills passed/signed" numbers when he campaigns for re-election. His name on such bills is evidence that he is already a favorite of the House Republican leadership who are going out of their way to help him, even before he has taken his oath of office.
Personal note: Edit to correct on 12/29: I just realized that my note about Rep. Kavanagh was incorrect. He is NOT listed as a co-sponsor of SB1027. I apologize for the error and have deleted the note. Thanks.
End edit 12/29
Edit to add:
A Random Raspberry (just made that up, but I like it! :) ) to Sen. Jim Waring of LD7. His SB1015 would turn ER and other medical personnel into DWI enforcers. It would require health care providers to "notify a law enforcement officer or agency" if they have a patient that was involved in a traffic accident whom they "reasonably" believe was the driver of the vehicle in the accident and they have a blood test indicating that the patient has a blood alcohol count greater than 0.08.
Failure to comply would be grounds for professional discipline by the regulatory agency governing the provider's profession, up to and including loss of professional licencing.
Why the raspberry? Two reasons -
1. Health care providers are medical professionals, not law enforcement professionals. Their focus must ALWAYS be on the patient; anything else is a distraction from their ability to provide the best care possible for the patient.
2. This bill, if enacted, would serve to discourage possibly seriously-injured people from seeking necessary medical attention. That's not something our legislators should be promoting.
Period.
Anyway, as the session starts rolling, I'll try and keep an eye out for the seriously loony and/or nasty proposals.
End edit.
Later!
My focus is on LD17 (my district), LD8 (north Scottsdale), and LD18 (Mesa) because those are the closest to me. Other districts are available on the Lege's website, just click on the Representative or Senator that you are interested in.
The brief summaries of the bills are NOT meant to be definitive; I haven't read any cross-referenced sections of the law.
If the bill addresses a topic of interest to you, read the text of the bill for yourself. If the area is one of interest to you, you'll probably understand the bill better than I do, anyway. :)
The list (note: most of these are co-sponsorships, not solo submittals):
LD17 -
Sen. Meg Burton-Cahill (D): none listed yet.
Rep. Ed Ableser (D): none listed yet.
Rep. David Schapira (D): none listed yet.
LD8 -
Sen. Carolyn Allen (R): SB1032, a bill indemnifying hospitals and their employees from liability for "any civil or other damages as a result of any act or omission", under certain conditions.
Rep. Michele Reagan (R): SCR1002, an amendment to the state constitution stating that public schools and teachers are "not subject to punitive damages for any act or failure to act related to classroom discipline."
Rep. John Kavanagh (R): A group of "technical correction" bills...
HB2001 - Relating to poison control
HB2002 - Relating to the taxation of common areas owned by homeowners' and/or community associations.
HB2003 - Relating to individual income tax credits for water conservation systems.
HB2004 - Relating to common school districts.
HB2005 - Relating to schools and property taxes (this one looks like a tense correction of a single word.)
HB2006 - Relating to public health and safety.
HB2007 - Relating to general election ballot.
HB2008 - Relating to contractors.
HB2009 - Relating to insurance.
HB2010 - Relating to state parks enhancement fund.
LD18 -
Sen. Karen Johnson (R): none listed yet. I know it won't last, but Thank God.
Rep. Russell Pearce (R): SB1027 (already discussed) and SB1028, a bill to accelerate Class One property tax reduction.
Rep. Mark Anderson (R): none listed yet.
Summary:
On the surface, it looks as if the Democrats in the lege aren't doing anything to prepare for the coming session, and the Republicans (especially Kavanagh) are hitting the ground running.
Then, a check of all of the Democrats in the lege shows that none of them have bills listed yet, even though I know that most of them have already prepared some.
The fact that the Rep leadership of both chambers of the state lege isn't allowing Democrats to even submit bills seems to be an indication that the Republicans are still more interested in the basest partisanship than in governance.
Also, a check of the bills that have Rep. Kavanagh listed as a sponsor show that most of them have no real legislative substance to them. "Technical corrections" bills are a great way to pad his "bills passed/signed" numbers when he campaigns for re-election. His name on such bills is evidence that he is already a favorite of the House Republican leadership who are going out of their way to help him, even before he has taken his oath of office.
Personal note: Edit to correct on 12/29: I just realized that my note about Rep. Kavanagh was incorrect. He is NOT listed as a co-sponsor of SB1027. I apologize for the error and have deleted the note. Thanks.
End edit 12/29
Edit to add:
A Random Raspberry (just made that up, but I like it! :) ) to Sen. Jim Waring of LD7. His SB1015 would turn ER and other medical personnel into DWI enforcers. It would require health care providers to "notify a law enforcement officer or agency" if they have a patient that was involved in a traffic accident whom they "reasonably" believe was the driver of the vehicle in the accident and they have a blood test indicating that the patient has a blood alcohol count greater than 0.08.
Failure to comply would be grounds for professional discipline by the regulatory agency governing the provider's profession, up to and including loss of professional licencing.
Why the raspberry? Two reasons -
1. Health care providers are medical professionals, not law enforcement professionals. Their focus must ALWAYS be on the patient; anything else is a distraction from their ability to provide the best care possible for the patient.
2. This bill, if enacted, would serve to discourage possibly seriously-injured people from seeking necessary medical attention. That's not something our legislators should be promoting.
Period.
Anyway, as the session starts rolling, I'll try and keep an eye out for the seriously loony and/or nasty proposals.
End edit.
Later!
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
Republicans in the AZ Lege continue their war on Public Education
From the Business Journal of Phoenix:
According to the article, the proposal is supported by the National Association of Industrial & Office Properties, Arizona Chamber of Commerce & Industry and Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce, and it's opposed by the Arizona Education Association.
This seems to be part of the Reps' long-term gameplan to undermine the effectiveness of public ed - they know they can't just end it arbitrarily and give the money spent on public education to private companies/campaign donors; instead they chip away at the funding that the schools need to do their jobs. Schemes such as corporate tax-credits for donations to private schools but not for public schools or directly taking money from public schools to give to private schools when a student transfers have been used to great success in this regard.
And as the schools become more underfunded, they become less effective in doing their jobs. With that, correspondingly more parents move their children from public schools to private and charter schools, taking even more money with them.
This isn't a "shot across the bow" signalling the start of a war; it's just the latest broadside against a nearly defenseless target.
If you live in an LD with a Democratic representative or senator (or even a sane Republican), contact them and urge them to oppose the bill.
The bill in question is SB1027; it is sponsored by Senators Bee, Waring, Harper, Burns, Gorman, and Vershoor and Representatives Weiers, Pearce (now there's a good reason to oppose the bill just on general principles), Biggs, and Boone.
State Senate President Tim Bee, House Speaker Jim Weiers and others have put forward a bill that would permanently repeal the equalization rate portion of state property tax bills.
The equalization rate earmarked 43 cents per $100 in assessed property values toward local schools with the temporary tax cut offset with cash from the state's general budget fund.
According to the article, the proposal is supported by the National Association of Industrial & Office Properties, Arizona Chamber of Commerce & Industry and Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce, and it's opposed by the Arizona Education Association.
This seems to be part of the Reps' long-term gameplan to undermine the effectiveness of public ed - they know they can't just end it arbitrarily and give the money spent on public education to private companies/campaign donors; instead they chip away at the funding that the schools need to do their jobs. Schemes such as corporate tax-credits for donations to private schools but not for public schools or directly taking money from public schools to give to private schools when a student transfers have been used to great success in this regard.
And as the schools become more underfunded, they become less effective in doing their jobs. With that, correspondingly more parents move their children from public schools to private and charter schools, taking even more money with them.
This isn't a "shot across the bow" signalling the start of a war; it's just the latest broadside against a nearly defenseless target.
If you live in an LD with a Democratic representative or senator (or even a sane Republican), contact them and urge them to oppose the bill.
The bill in question is SB1027; it is sponsored by Senators Bee, Waring, Harper, Burns, Gorman, and Vershoor and Representatives Weiers, Pearce (now there's a good reason to oppose the bill just on general principles), Biggs, and Boone.
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
Gerald Ford (1913 - 2006)
From Bloomberg:
I don't have much to add to the various obits that are hitting the 'net now; I was a kid during his brief time as President, and the only thing I remember about his Presidency is his pardon of Nixon.
President Ford is survived by his wife and children.
Arizona ties (and I'm sure that I'll miss some, so feel free to add to the list):
His father, Leslie Lynch King (President Ford changed his name to that of his stepfather) died in Tucson in 1941. (Ford Presidential Library)
In the 1976 Presidential election, he received 418,642 votes in AZ; Jimmy Carter received 295,602. (Historycentral.com)
In 1974, he attended a luncheon in Tubac, AZ with Mexico's then-President, Luis EcheverrÃa Alvarez. (UCSB's The American Presidency Project) More remarks from the same visit here. (same source)
Later!
Former U.S. President Gerald R. Ford, who pardoned his predecessor, Richard Nixon, and sought to restore faith in government after the Watergate scandal three decades ago, died today. He was 93.
I don't have much to add to the various obits that are hitting the 'net now; I was a kid during his brief time as President, and the only thing I remember about his Presidency is his pardon of Nixon.
President Ford is survived by his wife and children.
Arizona ties (and I'm sure that I'll miss some, so feel free to add to the list):
His father, Leslie Lynch King (President Ford changed his name to that of his stepfather) died in Tucson in 1941. (Ford Presidential Library)
In the 1976 Presidential election, he received 418,642 votes in AZ; Jimmy Carter received 295,602. (Historycentral.com)
In 1974, he attended a luncheon in Tubac, AZ with Mexico's then-President, Luis EcheverrÃa Alvarez. (UCSB's The American Presidency Project) More remarks from the same visit here. (same source)
Later!
Sunday, December 24, 2006
Congress' Muslim Bashing continues
(courtesy AP, via Yahoo! News)
Or maybe they just wanted to give a belated Christmas lump of coal...errr..."gift" to the world.
Later this week the House Committee on International Relations' Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations will release a report of its inquiry into the FBI investigation of the bombing.
In this report, while acknowledging that Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols were involved in the bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building, Congress criticizes the FBI for not thoroughly investigating rumors that others were involved, including, you guessed it, "persons associated with Middle Eastern terrorism."
And, after looking at the member list for both the Subcommittee and the full Committee, I was surprised NOT to find this month's most famous Muslim-baiter, Rep. Virgil Goode (R-VA5), was nowhere to be found. Jeff Flake (R-AZ6), someone I heretofore thought was sane, was there (he's the vice-chair of the subcommittee), but not Goode.
Maybe I'm just being cynical here, but it seems to really annoy the Republicans that whenever they start spouting about Muslims being the root of all terrorism, people poke holes in their religious stereotyping with the question (and forgive the poor grammatical construction, please :) )
"So what mosque did Timothy McVeigh worship at?"
Now their bigotry is causing them to reach conclusions based on speculation rooted in rumors.
Now their bigotry is driving them to try to revise history.
It's been all of a month and a half since the elections and they seem to have forgotten that the politics of demonization and fear aren't working any more.
Here's hoping they don't learn their lesson until the 2008 election cycle is complete.
Eli Blake at Deep Thought has a, well, "thoughtful" take on the Goode/Ellison dustup.
Happy Holidays everyone!
Or maybe they just wanted to give a belated Christmas lump of coal...errr..."gift" to the world.
Later this week the House Committee on International Relations' Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations will release a report of its inquiry into the FBI investigation of the bombing.
In this report, while acknowledging that Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols were involved in the bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building, Congress criticizes the FBI for not thoroughly investigating rumors that others were involved, including, you guessed it, "persons associated with Middle Eastern terrorism."
And, after looking at the member list for both the Subcommittee and the full Committee, I was surprised NOT to find this month's most famous Muslim-baiter, Rep. Virgil Goode (R-VA5), was nowhere to be found. Jeff Flake (R-AZ6), someone I heretofore thought was sane, was there (he's the vice-chair of the subcommittee), but not Goode.
Maybe I'm just being cynical here, but it seems to really annoy the Republicans that whenever they start spouting about Muslims being the root of all terrorism, people poke holes in their religious stereotyping with the question (and forgive the poor grammatical construction, please :) )
"So what mosque did Timothy McVeigh worship at?"
Now their bigotry is causing them to reach conclusions based on speculation rooted in rumors.
Now their bigotry is driving them to try to revise history.
It's been all of a month and a half since the elections and they seem to have forgotten that the politics of demonization and fear aren't working any more.
Here's hoping they don't learn their lesson until the 2008 election cycle is complete.
Eli Blake at Deep Thought has a, well, "thoughtful" take on the Goode/Ellison dustup.
Happy Holidays everyone!
Breaking news that isn't breaking news
Actually, it may be the worst-kept secret in America right now.
John Edwards, former Senator and 2004 Democratic nominee for VP is running for the 2008 Democratic nomination for President.
Just received an email from JohnEdwards@readytochangeamerica.com.
It starts with a couple of paragraphs about his efforts over the last couple of years fighting poverty and helping working families (among other things.)
It then goes on to say:
He closes the message by promising to let everyone know his decision "early next week" and wishes us all Happy Holidays.
I visited the website, readytochangeamerica.com, and was redirected to a website with his calendar of appearances for the next week.
These include Des Moines, IA on the 28th, Portsmouth, NH and Reno NV on the 29th, and West Columbia, SC and Chapel Hill, NC on the 30th.
Hmmm....that's a LOT of frequent flier miles in a short time for someone who hasn't already made the decision to run.
According to this article from Telegraph.co.uk, he's already decided to make the announcement from New Orleans.
I certainly haven't made up my mind yet on how I'm going to vote come primary time, but Sen. Edwards is definitely worth considering.
Edwards/Dean 2008??
John Edwards, former Senator and 2004 Democratic nominee for VP is running for the 2008 Democratic nomination for President.
Just received an email from JohnEdwards@readytochangeamerica.com.
It starts with a couple of paragraphs about his efforts over the last couple of years fighting poverty and helping working families (among other things.)
It then goes on to say:
Now, we have a big decision to make -- and I do mean we.He then asks for people to help him make the decision by emailing their support to the addy above.
I'm getting ready to take this effort to the next level - to bringAmericans together in all fifty states to tackle the big challenges facing our country, from poverty and lack of health care, to energy and global warming.
He closes the message by promising to let everyone know his decision "early next week" and wishes us all Happy Holidays.
I visited the website, readytochangeamerica.com, and was redirected to a website with his calendar of appearances for the next week.
These include Des Moines, IA on the 28th, Portsmouth, NH and Reno NV on the 29th, and West Columbia, SC and Chapel Hill, NC on the 30th.
Hmmm....that's a LOT of frequent flier miles in a short time for someone who hasn't already made the decision to run.
According to this article from Telegraph.co.uk, he's already decided to make the announcement from New Orleans.
I certainly haven't made up my mind yet on how I'm going to vote come primary time, but Sen. Edwards is definitely worth considering.
Edwards/Dean 2008??
Friday, December 22, 2006
Swearing-in ceremony for Harry Mitchell
From an email from the Mitchell for Congress campaign:
I can't go, though I would love to, but I hope that as many people as possible can attend to show our support for our new Congressman. It would definitely be a memorable way to kick off the new year.
In other CD5 news, Stacy at AZ CongressWatch noticed an article in the Phoenix Business Journal that quoted Matt Salmon, former Congressman, former candidate for Governor, and soon-to-be-former chairman of the AZGOP, as expressing an interest in moving to CD5 and challenging Harry in 2008.
It's official - the 2008 campaign has started even before Harry Mitchell has been sworn in.
Later!
You are Cordially Invited to
Attend Swearing-In Festivities
for
Congressman Harry E.
Mitchell
January 3rd, 2007
Arizona State Society
Reception
5:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m.
Rayburn House Office Building B354 •
Washington, D.C.
January 4th, 2007
Swearing-In
Reception
6:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.
Bullfeathers • 410 First Street SE •
Washington, D.C.
To RSVP or for more information, call
480-755-3343, or email us at info@harry2006.com.
Thank you for your support.
I can't go, though I would love to, but I hope that as many people as possible can attend to show our support for our new Congressman. It would definitely be a memorable way to kick off the new year.
In other CD5 news, Stacy at AZ CongressWatch noticed an article in the Phoenix Business Journal that quoted Matt Salmon, former Congressman, former candidate for Governor, and soon-to-be-former chairman of the AZGOP, as expressing an interest in moving to CD5 and challenging Harry in 2008.
It's official - the 2008 campaign has started even before Harry Mitchell has been sworn in.
Later!
Thursday, December 21, 2006
CD5 Precinct-By-Precinct: preliminary number crunching
The Maricopa County Recorder's Office has finally posted the precinct-by-precinct results for the November election. I've put them into an Excel spreadsheet to play with them, and have a few results now:
Out of 250 precincts in CD5:
Harry Mitchell and JD Hayworth tied in 2 - Mesa 51 (274 votes each) and Pima (450 each).
They were less than 10 votes apart in 15 other precincts.
JD Hayworth won in 75 precincts; Harry Mitchell won 171. There were two precincts that had no votes recorded, Longmore (6 registered voters) and Canyon (0 registered voters).
171 Mitchell + 75 Hayworth + 2 ties + 2 no votes = 250 precincts accounted for.
Disclaimer: Now for the "preliminary" part.
One of the analyses that I performed was to compare the results of the voting with the registrations, which was enlightening, until I realized that I had used incomplete registration numbers for each precinct. I used only the "active" registrations for each precinct; unfortunately for the calculations, "inactive" registrations are still valid. The difference won't make a large difference in the analysis, but could affect it slightly. I'll update it next week, but even when using only the "active" numbers, the results are eye-opening.
As part of the analysis, I used as a baseline the registrations with declared affiliations and then compared that to the actual breakdown of the results.
For example, if a given precinct had 150 registered voters, 100 with affiliations, 60 Rep, 35 Dem, and 5 Libertarian, that would give a baseline of 60% Rep, 35% Dem, and 5% Lib. With a vote breakdown of 53% Hayworth, 45% Mitchell, and 2% Severin, that would give Mitchell a +10 rating compared to affiliations.
In essence, for the purposes of this analysis, the baseline assumes that independents vote the same way and in the same proportions as affiliated voters in that precinct. The reality, of course, is a little different, but it's still a valid yardstick, imo. It shows the precincts where a candidate draws greater support than his opponent from independents (or from across party lines, but I can't measure that with these numbers). This is useful info for minority party candidates looking for areas in "enemy territory" where a campaign appearance might be fruitful, or for a majority party candidate looking for weak areas to shore up.
Out of 250 precincts, Mitchell did worse than the baseline in
What does this mean?
While he didn't win each precinct, he gained on Hayworth in 240 precincts! Which jibes with something I said in August - Mitchell didn't need to win in Scottsdale to beat Hayworth, he just had to make Hayworth's margin of victory in Scottsdale smaller than his (Mitchell's) margin of victory in Tempe.
He did so, and he did win.
That speaks to both a broad base of support and a tremendous Get Out The Vote effort by the Mitchell campaign and by the AZ Dems.
More analysis next week!
Have a great holiday!
Out of 250 precincts in CD5:
Harry Mitchell and JD Hayworth tied in 2 - Mesa 51 (274 votes each) and Pima (450 each).
They were less than 10 votes apart in 15 other precincts.
JD Hayworth won in 75 precincts; Harry Mitchell won 171. There were two precincts that had no votes recorded, Longmore (6 registered voters) and Canyon (0 registered voters).
171 Mitchell + 75 Hayworth + 2 ties + 2 no votes = 250 precincts accounted for.
Disclaimer: Now for the "preliminary" part.
One of the analyses that I performed was to compare the results of the voting with the registrations, which was enlightening, until I realized that I had used incomplete registration numbers for each precinct. I used only the "active" registrations for each precinct; unfortunately for the calculations, "inactive" registrations are still valid. The difference won't make a large difference in the analysis, but could affect it slightly. I'll update it next week, but even when using only the "active" numbers, the results are eye-opening.
As part of the analysis, I used as a baseline the registrations with declared affiliations and then compared that to the actual breakdown of the results.
For example, if a given precinct had 150 registered voters, 100 with affiliations, 60 Rep, 35 Dem, and 5 Libertarian, that would give a baseline of 60% Rep, 35% Dem, and 5% Lib. With a vote breakdown of 53% Hayworth, 45% Mitchell, and 2% Severin, that would give Mitchell a +10 rating compared to affiliations.
In essence, for the purposes of this analysis, the baseline assumes that independents vote the same way and in the same proportions as affiliated voters in that precinct. The reality, of course, is a little different, but it's still a valid yardstick, imo. It shows the precincts where a candidate draws greater support than his opponent from independents (or from across party lines, but I can't measure that with these numbers). This is useful info for minority party candidates looking for areas in "enemy territory" where a campaign appearance might be fruitful, or for a majority party candidate looking for weak areas to shore up.
Out of 250 precincts, Mitchell did worse than the baseline in
10.
What does this mean?
While he didn't win each precinct, he gained on Hayworth in 240 precincts! Which jibes with something I said in August - Mitchell didn't need to win in Scottsdale to beat Hayworth, he just had to make Hayworth's margin of victory in Scottsdale smaller than his (Mitchell's) margin of victory in Tempe.
He did so, and he did win.
That speaks to both a broad base of support and a tremendous Get Out The Vote effort by the Mitchell campaign and by the AZ Dems.
More analysis next week!
Have a great holiday!
Wild Idea time
While for the last few weeks it has been relatively quiet politics-wise (Congress and the State Lege being out of session will do that :) ), there still has been lots to write about -
Potential Presidential candidates (farewell, Evan Bayh, we hardly knew ye);
Bush being Bush (vague yet intransigent over Iraq);
Cultural shallowness (a mom leaving her baby with a valet at a Scottsdale mall);
The list could go on, but you get the idea. Most of these things either aren't very interesting (mall baby) or have been more eloquently discussed by others (Bush and his antics.)
So, since it's kind of the "silly season" for blogging, it's time to let out some of the crazier ideas that have been percolating through the synapses of my brain. "Brainstorm Blogging," so to speak.
This one was floating, unformed, in my mind for a while, but began to crystallize with Hurricane Katrina, and the debacle of the aftermath (FEMA's utter failure, incompetence of the Bush Admin, etc.).
A traveling Capital.
Leave the bureaucracy of government in D.C.; the agencies, bureaus, and offices can stay there. However, every 4 years, have the political capital of government move to the poorest part of the country. Congress would meet, and the President and First Family would live, in areas such as the Gulf Coast, Appalachia, East St. Louis, and yes, even D.C. occasionally.
The expected benefits of this:
1. If nothing else, these poorest areas would benefit from the permanent infrastructure improvements needed to support the temporary visit of the Capital.
2. The areas would also benefit from the increased economic activity brought in by the Capital. While the 'official' number of people moving with the Capital would number less than 600 (U.S. House, Senate, Prez and VP), they'd all bring staff and support personnel with them. I'd guess that somewhere near 10,000 people would be moving with the Capital on a regular basis, with the number of visitors bringing the total to 10 times that at any given moment.
Those people would need to eat and sleep and with the other details of daily living, that's a LOT of economic activity.
3. It would force lawmakers to pay attention to the infrastructure needs of the *people* of the United States, not just large campaign contributors.
4. It might just reduce the influence of lobbyists over our elected officials. A little bit, anyway.
Let's face it, most professional lobbyists would rather woo their targets while making the rounds of the D.C. cocktail party/exclusive golf club circuit than over fried crawdads at Bubba's Driving Range and Bait Emporium.
5. Such a move might also have the effect of discouraging dilettantes and snobs from running for office in the first place.
Can you imagine the likes of Tom Tancredo or JD Hayworth willingly working in places like New Orleans or El Paso? They might actually meet immigrants. Oh, the horror! :))
Also, much as with the lobbyists, too many of our elected officials (not all by any stretch of the imagination, but more than a few) really enjoy the perks of the job.
More than they enjoy doing the job itself.
True, some of the practical aspects of this proposal would be daunting, but I think that the advances in communications technology and travel would mitigate any difficulties in those areas.
Other things to worry about would include site selection - choosing the poorest area sounds easy, until you remember that statistics can be manipulated. Left to unscrupulous hands, it would be simple for a government agency to generate a report saying that Maui, HI or Orange County, CA are the poorest areas of the country.
Certainly, this proposal is light on details, but that's the nature of brainstorming. It's just an idea at this point.
Anybody have their own crazy ideas?
Potential Presidential candidates (farewell, Evan Bayh, we hardly knew ye);
Bush being Bush (vague yet intransigent over Iraq);
Cultural shallowness (a mom leaving her baby with a valet at a Scottsdale mall);
The list could go on, but you get the idea. Most of these things either aren't very interesting (mall baby) or have been more eloquently discussed by others (Bush and his antics.)
So, since it's kind of the "silly season" for blogging, it's time to let out some of the crazier ideas that have been percolating through the synapses of my brain. "Brainstorm Blogging," so to speak.
This one was floating, unformed, in my mind for a while, but began to crystallize with Hurricane Katrina, and the debacle of the aftermath (FEMA's utter failure, incompetence of the Bush Admin, etc.).
A traveling Capital.
Leave the bureaucracy of government in D.C.; the agencies, bureaus, and offices can stay there. However, every 4 years, have the political capital of government move to the poorest part of the country. Congress would meet, and the President and First Family would live, in areas such as the Gulf Coast, Appalachia, East St. Louis, and yes, even D.C. occasionally.
The expected benefits of this:
1. If nothing else, these poorest areas would benefit from the permanent infrastructure improvements needed to support the temporary visit of the Capital.
2. The areas would also benefit from the increased economic activity brought in by the Capital. While the 'official' number of people moving with the Capital would number less than 600 (U.S. House, Senate, Prez and VP), they'd all bring staff and support personnel with them. I'd guess that somewhere near 10,000 people would be moving with the Capital on a regular basis, with the number of visitors bringing the total to 10 times that at any given moment.
Those people would need to eat and sleep and with the other details of daily living, that's a LOT of economic activity.
3. It would force lawmakers to pay attention to the infrastructure needs of the *people* of the United States, not just large campaign contributors.
4. It might just reduce the influence of lobbyists over our elected officials. A little bit, anyway.
Let's face it, most professional lobbyists would rather woo their targets while making the rounds of the D.C. cocktail party/exclusive golf club circuit than over fried crawdads at Bubba's Driving Range and Bait Emporium.
5. Such a move might also have the effect of discouraging dilettantes and snobs from running for office in the first place.
Can you imagine the likes of Tom Tancredo or JD Hayworth willingly working in places like New Orleans or El Paso? They might actually meet immigrants. Oh, the horror! :))
Also, much as with the lobbyists, too many of our elected officials (not all by any stretch of the imagination, but more than a few) really enjoy the perks of the job.
More than they enjoy doing the job itself.
True, some of the practical aspects of this proposal would be daunting, but I think that the advances in communications technology and travel would mitigate any difficulties in those areas.
Other things to worry about would include site selection - choosing the poorest area sounds easy, until you remember that statistics can be manipulated. Left to unscrupulous hands, it would be simple for a government agency to generate a report saying that Maui, HI or Orange County, CA are the poorest areas of the country.
Certainly, this proposal is light on details, but that's the nature of brainstorming. It's just an idea at this point.
Anybody have their own crazy ideas?
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
The journey of the 2008 Democratic Convention to Denver hits a snag
From DenverPost.com:
Taylor, Business Agent for Local No. 7 of the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees, expressed concerns over the proposal to hold the convention at the Pepsi Center in Denver, which has a history of being anti-union.
Discussions in Denver are ongoing, with an announcement of the final choice by the DNC in early January.
Personally, I hope that the convention is in Denver; my sister lives there and has volunteered to be a host for volunteers if space is needed.
That would be an awesome opportunity, both to witness the selection of the nominee and for a few of the denizens of the AZ blogosphere to cover the event together.
Good night!
Dems put city pick on hold until '07
The union official at the center of Denver's stalled bid for the 2008 Democratic convention said Tuesday that his opposition has been clear for months.
Denver's stagehand union leader, Jim Taylor, explained his entrenched problem with holding a political convention at Denver's Pepsi Center as Democrats headed into the holiday recess with bids from both Denver and New York in doubt.
The Democratic National Committee on Tuesday delayed its decision between the two cities in light of Denver's union problem and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg's continued concerns about raising enough money.
Taylor, Business Agent for Local No. 7 of the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees, expressed concerns over the proposal to hold the convention at the Pepsi Center in Denver, which has a history of being anti-union.
Discussions in Denver are ongoing, with an announcement of the final choice by the DNC in early January.
Personally, I hope that the convention is in Denver; my sister lives there and has volunteered to be a host for volunteers if space is needed.
That would be an awesome opportunity, both to witness the selection of the nominee and for a few of the denizens of the AZ blogosphere to cover the event together.
Good night!
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
Update on Photo Radar on Loop 101 in Scottsdale
From the EV Trib:
Assuming it goes through, this is NOT something that will endear Rep. Reagan to the powers-that-be with the City of Scottsdale.
They do not look kindly upon ANYBODY, even a prominent Republican, messing with one of their revenue streams.
There has been speculation that Rep. Reagan is going to challenge Harry Mitchell in 2008 for the CD5 seat in Congress; if she is serious about this bill, it could undermine support for any Congressional run. While municipal politics and partisan politics usually don't have much overlap, half of the members of the Scottsdale City Council are elected Republican PCs and State Committee members.
On the other hand, Rep. Reagan, her mom Donna (outgoing LD8 chair for the Republicans) and her dad Michael (JP, McDowell Mountain Pct.) are very popular among the Republicans of north Scottsdale.
And yes, they're more popular than the Mayor and City Council.
However it should be noted that at this point, George W. Bush, with his 30-odd percent approval rating, may be more popular than Scottsdale's Mayor and City Council.
In other photo-radar related news, on January 16, 2007, the Scottsdale City Council will hear the "Loop 101 Photo Enforcement Final Technical Evaluation Report. "
It should be an interesting evening, though a long one - while so far, there's only one item on the Council's regular agenda for the evening (the photo radar report), right now there are 33 items (33!!) on the consent agenda, and at least two or three of those are going to be contentious.
Expect a four hour meeting. :((
Later!
Bill gives 101 camera profit to DPSRecently re-elected LD8 Rep. Michele Reagan (R-Scottsdale) plans to sponsor a bill that would let the city recoup its costs from administering the program but force it to forward any profits to the Department of Public Safety.
A Scottsdale lawmaker plans to sponsor a bill that would prevent the city from financially profiting from the Loop 101 photo enforcement program, a move that would end a fiscal argument often cited by critics who oppose the cameras.
Assuming it goes through, this is NOT something that will endear Rep. Reagan to the powers-that-be with the City of Scottsdale.
They do not look kindly upon ANYBODY, even a prominent Republican, messing with one of their revenue streams.
There has been speculation that Rep. Reagan is going to challenge Harry Mitchell in 2008 for the CD5 seat in Congress; if she is serious about this bill, it could undermine support for any Congressional run. While municipal politics and partisan politics usually don't have much overlap, half of the members of the Scottsdale City Council are elected Republican PCs and State Committee members.
On the other hand, Rep. Reagan, her mom Donna (outgoing LD8 chair for the Republicans) and her dad Michael (JP, McDowell Mountain Pct.) are very popular among the Republicans of north Scottsdale.
And yes, they're more popular than the Mayor and City Council.
However it should be noted that at this point, George W. Bush, with his 30-odd percent approval rating, may be more popular than Scottsdale's Mayor and City Council.
In other photo-radar related news, on January 16, 2007, the Scottsdale City Council will hear the "Loop 101 Photo Enforcement Final Technical Evaluation Report. "
It should be an interesting evening, though a long one - while so far, there's only one item on the Council's regular agenda for the evening (the photo radar report), right now there are 33 items (33!!) on the consent agenda, and at least two or three of those are going to be contentious.
Expect a four hour meeting. :((
Later!
Thursday, December 14, 2006
Arizona Politicians: new day, old story
From the AZ Rep...
The latest to be indicted: outgoing State Mine Inspector Doug Martin, for three counts each of theft, fraud, and procurement fraud.
It seems he has a penchant for ignoring state procurement rules when it comes to buying new vehicles for his office, and for making a"charitable donation" of an old vehicle.
To a group that Martin was an officer and director of.
We can save the discussion of why the State Mine Inspector is still an elected constitutional officer in Arizona, instead of an office under the auspices of the Industrial Commission or Attorney General's Office (or something else, though I like the AG's office for this one) for another day.
And this may be the partisan cynic in me talking now, but when are the Reps going to realize that if they are going to position their party as the "law and order, traditional values" party, they should actually have candidates that follow the law.
Unless, of course, they consider corruption and arrogant contempt for the law to be "traditional values."
Note: They've been pretty quiet so far about the indictment of Martin (and the indictment of Maricopa County School Superintendent Sandra Dowling and indictment and plea bargain of outgoing Treasurer David Petersen earlier this year), but I fully expect the Republicans to find a way to voice their righteous indignation and outrage if/when a Democrat steps out of line in the same way as these others.
The latest to be indicted: outgoing State Mine Inspector Doug Martin, for three counts each of theft, fraud, and procurement fraud.
It seems he has a penchant for ignoring state procurement rules when it comes to buying new vehicles for his office, and for making a"charitable donation" of an old vehicle.
To a group that Martin was an officer and director of.
We can save the discussion of why the State Mine Inspector is still an elected constitutional officer in Arizona, instead of an office under the auspices of the Industrial Commission or Attorney General's Office (or something else, though I like the AG's office for this one) for another day.
And this may be the partisan cynic in me talking now, but when are the Reps going to realize that if they are going to position their party as the "law and order, traditional values" party, they should actually have candidates that follow the law.
Unless, of course, they consider corruption and arrogant contempt for the law to be "traditional values."
Note: They've been pretty quiet so far about the indictment of Martin (and the indictment of Maricopa County School Superintendent Sandra Dowling and indictment and plea bargain of outgoing Treasurer David Petersen earlier this year), but I fully expect the Republicans to find a way to voice their righteous indignation and outrage if/when a Democrat steps out of line in the same way as these others.
Wednesday, December 13, 2006
Only in Scottsdale
[non-political post ahead]
Please, God, let it truly be only in Scottsdale...
From today's EV Trib:
The article goes on to note that while she was being questioned by the police, the mother in question "asked an officer 'if she was in trouble.' "
She was arrested, and booked on charges of criminal cluelessness.
Please, God, let it truly be only in Scottsdale...
From today's EV Trib:
Police: Mom takes dog, leaves kid in car at mallShe took her dog and left her kid?!? %@#$#!!! Leave the dog at home, and bring the toddler into the mall in a stroller!
Police have arrested a mother who took her dog shopping inside a Scottsdale Fashion Square department store while leaving her sleeping toddler in her car with a valet.
The article goes on to note that while she was being questioned by the police, the mother in question "asked an officer 'if she was in trouble.' "
She was arrested, and booked on charges of criminal cluelessness.
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
Maricopa Dems Reorganization Meeting
The Maricopa County Democratic Party held its reorganization meeting at the Plumbers and Pipe Fitters Union Hall to elect new officers.
Congratulations go out to:
Mark Manoil, Chair
Debra Boehlke, 1st Vice-Chair
Harold Holmes, 2nd Vice-Chair
Dan Mallar, Treasurer
Angie Crouse, Secretary (whoooo hoooo!!)
Aaron Jahneke, Sergeant-At-Arms
Congratulations and thanks go out to the other candidates for the county party leadership - Roman Ullman, Jim Larson, David Lelsz, and also Jeanne Lunn and Glenn Ray, who were both nominated for offices, but declined graciously.
Two notes about the meeting:
1. It was easy to tell from the crowd that most of us are not afficionados of parliamentary procedure.
Definitely. :))
2. Glenn Ray, late of the LD22 State Senate race, impressed a LOT of people with his eloquent and glowing deferral to Harold Holmes for the 2nd VC slot.
While I've heard great things about Glenn in the past, it was the first time I've personally witnessed him in action. He was a powerful and emotional speaker (his genuine respect and affection for Harold Holmes was evident in his speech), and when he runs for office again, and I expect that he will, he will have the support of many of the activists in the room tonight.
Have a great night!
Congratulations go out to:
Mark Manoil, Chair
Debra Boehlke, 1st Vice-Chair
Harold Holmes, 2nd Vice-Chair
Dan Mallar, Treasurer
Angie Crouse, Secretary (whoooo hoooo!!)
Aaron Jahneke, Sergeant-At-Arms
Congratulations and thanks go out to the other candidates for the county party leadership - Roman Ullman, Jim Larson, David Lelsz, and also Jeanne Lunn and Glenn Ray, who were both nominated for offices, but declined graciously.
Two notes about the meeting:
1. It was easy to tell from the crowd that most of us are not afficionados of parliamentary procedure.
Definitely. :))
2. Glenn Ray, late of the LD22 State Senate race, impressed a LOT of people with his eloquent and glowing deferral to Harold Holmes for the 2nd VC slot.
While I've heard great things about Glenn in the past, it was the first time I've personally witnessed him in action. He was a powerful and emotional speaker (his genuine respect and affection for Harold Holmes was evident in his speech), and when he runs for office again, and I expect that he will, he will have the support of many of the activists in the room tonight.
Have a great night!
AZDems call for help for the striking Raytheon workers in Tucson
From David Waid, Chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party, via email and a letter given to every attendee at tonight's Maricopa County Democratic Party reorganization meeting (links added by me):
AZStar update on the strike here. (12/9)
My message is simple folks:
Give what you can, and do it enthusiastically.
December 11, 1006
Dear Fellow Democrats,
As we head into this holiday season we have much to be thankful for and a great two years ahead of us, filled with the potential to make an even bigger difference for our state and nation in the elections to come. However, even as we celebrate our victories there are others who continue to fight for basic individual rights and who will enter the New Year in a more precarious place.
The 1,600 workers of Raytheon in Tucson are on strike against the company over its failure to properly address employee medical costs. They are also fighting the company's insistence that all future workers be excluded from the current pension plan, despite the fact that the pension plan is heavily over-funded. Even as the company reported a 41% increase in earnings per share, the workers upon whose labor that success was built will be entering the holiday season living on food stamps and the small stipend which the strike fund can afford.
As Democrats, we have fought hard for healthcare and to protect people's ability to retire with a measure of security and dignity. That was at the heart of the dispute when we supported the miners that were affected by the ASARCO strike in Hayden and Winkelman last year. Now we have an opportunity and a calling to support this community of workers in Tucson and to help to make this a joyous holiday season for them and their families.
For that reason, the Democratic Party and the Young Democrats of Arizona are organizing a food and toy drive to show our support. We will be collecting nonperishable foods, filled holiday baskets, unwrapped gifts for children, teenagers and adults, plus school supplies and toiletries.
Please drop off your items between Dec. 12-19 to:
Arizona Democratic Headquarters @ 2910 N. Central Ave. Phoenix (M-F between 9:00am and 5:00pm)
Pima County Democratic Headquarters @ 4639 E. 1st Street, Tucson (M-F between 9:00am and 5:00pm)
Cochise County Democratic Headquarters @ 1010 E. Fry Blvd. Sierra Vista (drop off on Thursday Dec. 14 from 3pm-5pm, and Friday Dec. 15 9:00am-12n)
Coconino County Democratic Headquarters @ 5840 E. Waki Road, Flagstaff (M-F between 10:00am and 2:00pm)
Yavapai Democratic Headquarters @ 508 S. Montezuma St. Prescott, AZ (M-F between 11:00am and 3:00pm)
I wish you all the best for the holidays and the New Year and look forward to working with you to bring some happiness and support to the workers and families of the International Association of Machinists, Local 933.
AZStar update on the strike here. (12/9)
My message is simple folks:
Give what you can, and do it enthusiastically.
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