It's early, but 2030 is coming

...And for the first time in a long time, Arizona Democrats have a deep bench.

Caveat: No elected officials were talked to about this; I truly have no idea what office any of them may be interested in, or even if any person mentioned here is even interested in continuing their political career.

Also, there is an underlying presumption that those seeking reelection to their current offices will succeed in their efforts.  Reality may disagree and doesn't care about presumptions.

This is just idle speculation on my part.

First up - Governor Katie Hobbs, seeking reelection in 2026, will be termed limited in 2030..

May go federal, either U.S. House or U.S. Senate (the seat currently held by Ruben Gallego will be on 2030's ballot).

Attorney General Kris Mayes and Secretary of State Adrian Fontes.  Both seeking reelection in 2026, will be termed limited in 2030..

One or both of them may go for Governor or a federal office.  If they go for the same office, I've already decided which one I'll support in a primary, but won't be angry if the other wins - both have done some very good work for the people of Arizona.

Also, the eventual  2026 nominee for Lieutenant Governor will also be in the mix for Governor in 2030.  As I have no idea who that will be, no picture will be posted.

Wildcard:

Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego.  Current term ends in 2029.  Term limited.

May go federal or statewide, but I don't expect her to primary her ex - she endorsed him in 2024.

Dark horse wildcards:

Tucson Mayor Regina Romero.  Current term ends in 2028.  NOT term limited.

May go federal or statewide, especially if Juan Ciscomani is still in Congress from Southern Arizona.

Tempe Mayor Corey Woods.  Current term ends in 2028.  Not sure if he's term limited.

May go federal or statewide, but may face headwinds/hard feelings over his support for the idea of having the taxpayers of Tempe pick up the tab for an arena for the billionaire-owned Phoenix Coyotes.

Could upend the political calculus for *everyone*:

If U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly wins reelection in 2028 and is on the Democratic presidential ticket in 2028, and that ticket is successful (lots of "ifs" there), that would leave a vacancy in the Senate.  While the Governor of AZ would make an appointment to fill that vacancy, it would only be valid until the next general election.  The winner of that election would then serve out the balance of the term.

Such an election would be in 2030.

Raul Grijalva has been laid to rest. Now starts the horse race to replace him

This past week, the funeral was held for late Congressman Raul Grijalva.

Most serious candidates waited until afterward to drop the gloves/make an announcement.

So far, there have been no real surprises among the entrants.  In fact, the biggest surprises have been those who have announced that they are *not* running -

Tucson Mayor Regina Romero is out.

Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes is out.

The biggest name who has announced entry into the race is Daniel Hernandez (biggest so far, because others may/will enter the race), a former state legislator and staffer for former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, and he was credited with saving her life when she was shot.

The most interesting name, so far, may be that of Samantha Severson.  Only she and Hernandez have formed committees with the FEC.  In spite of that, I don't believe she's a serious candidate - she's acting as the treasurer for the campaign committee.

In 2022, someone by that name ran for state Attorney General as a Libertarian write-in candidate.

Well, there is one area where Tucson outranks Phoenix

In early July, WalletHub published a study ranking America's most- and least-educated Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in 2024.  MSAs are federally-designated urban areas with a city at the center of it ("center" is NOT a geographic term).  The study only included the top 150 MSAs,  and in Arizona, only Phoenix and Tucson were ranked.

In a development that probably isn't a surprise to any who live here, AZ didn't do too well in the survey.

From the survey -

There are other MSAs in AZ, and I'm going to speculate on where they'd rank, with "above Tucson" or "below Phoenix" designation (as none of the other MSAs are in the top 150, the study didn't rank them, so this is just speculation on my part and may be incorrect).

The list of other MSAs in AZ, from the Eller College of Management at U of A -

• Flagstaff MSA (Coconino Co.) - probably higher than Phoenix, may be higher than Tucson.  Having NAU in the MSA doesn't hurt.

• Lake Havasu City-Kingman MSA (Mohave Co.) - lower than Phoenix.  There's nothing there other than dust.

• Prescott Valley-Prescott MSA (Yavapai Co.) - lower than Phoenix, but may be the highest ranked of the other MSAs (with the exception of Flagstaff), benefitting from the number of Phoenix residents who have moved there.

• Sierra-Vista MSA (Cochise Co.) - lower than Phoenix, but its ranking may benefit from its proximity to Tucson.

• Yuma MSA (Yuma Co.) - lower than Phoenix. possibly the lowest in AZ.  Yuma County is primarily agricultural and has the highest unemployment rate in AZ.

Bet that Tom Horne and the Republican caucus in the legislature think that the rankings of Phoenix and Tucson are too high and wish to reduce them, while Kate Gallego and Regina Romero, the mayors of Phoenix and Tucson, respectively, believe that the existing rankings should be increased upon.

Time for some 2024 speculation

Yes, the 2022 election is barely in the books and the inevitable lawsuit has been filed but not resolved, but 2024 races have already started.

First, a few caveats:

1. No actual humans were spoken to during the production of this post.  This is purely about me throwing ideas against the wall and seeing what sticks.

2. Any names/people mentioned here are folks who I think may look at running for a particular office but that doesn't mean that I think that all will actually run for that office.

3. Anyone who currently holds an office will be presumed to retain that office, if they actually run for it.  Some will be vulnerable and will lose their offices.

US President:

The 2020 nominees, Joe Biden and Cheeto, are making noises about running (actually, Cheeto has already announced his candidacy).  However, I don't believe that either will actually run in 2024.  They'll both be *old*.  Right now, both are making noises about doing so because of Biden's desire to not to already be seen as a lame duck POTUS and Cheeto's desire to not be seen as incarcerated.

And his ego.  Cheeto's vanity is boundless.  For him, the presidency is less about public service and more about self-aggrandizement. And profit.

US Senate seat from Arizona:

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat is up for election, and her decision to change her registration to Independent opens up the Democratic primary in a big way,

The Republican primary was already going to be wide open but her move may make it wilder.

Doug Ducey, the current governor in AZ, has long been rumored to be eyeing Sinema's seat.

Mark Brnovich, the current Attorney General in AZ, may have lost the R Senate primary in 2022 and is term-limited as AG, but he doesn't seem to be going away - he's running radio ads catering to rural voters.  He may simply be burning off his budget, but I think that he's keeping his options open.

Paul Gosar and/or Andy Biggs, both are batshit crazy members of Congress.  Assuming they avoid going to prison over their involvement in the insurrection of January 6, 2021.

Kelli Ward, currently the batshit crazy chair of the AZGOP.  Assuming she avoids going to prison over their involvement in the insurrection of January 6, 2021.

An unnamed vassal of a rich guy who's looking to by a Senate seat.  Think: 2024 version of Blake Masters/Peter Thiel.

Other election-denying/anti-democracy Rs may also looking at the seat.

With Sinema's change, the R primary transitions from being the political equivalent of a pro wrestling battle royal to being an outright bar brawl.

If Sinema appears on the ballot, it will have the effect of siphoning votes away from the Democratic nominee, so if the R nominee isn't a batshit crazy ones, they'll win in a walkover; if the R voters pick a crazy nominee in their primary, the race will closer, maybe close enough for the D nominee to win.  For the record, while I consider Ducey and Brnovich to be poor public servants and simply lousy human beings, they're not batshit crazy.

The Democratic primary will be less wide open than the Republican primary but it will be more open than it would have been before Sinema left.

Ruben Gallego, current member of Congress, is the very early favorite here because he was already going to challenge Sinema in the primary when she was still a D.

Greg Stanton, current member of Congress and former mayor of Phoenix, has already made noises critical of Sinema.  From Twitter (pic taken yesterday) -

Other Ds who may be looking at the race -

Kate Gallego, current mayor of Phoenix.  Termed out and will not be in office in 2024.

Regina Romero, current mayor of Tucson.

Raquel Teran, currently in the AZ State Senate and the chair of the Arizona Democratic Party.  In AZ, it's almost a tradition that one doesn't become a state party chair without running for high office.

Kathy Hoffman. currently the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction.  She lost her re-election bid in 2022.

US Congress -

I expect that most of the current officeholders here will retain their office, but three of the Rs will be especially vulnerable - Juan Ciscomani in southern AZ and Eli Crane in Northern AZ because they will be first termers and David Schweikert because he's ethically challenged.

Also, if Ruben Gallego and/or Stanton run for the Senate, it wouldn't be surprising to see 1 or 2 (or more) of the others listed as potentially running for Senate to look at those seats instead.

Arizona Corporation Commission -

Three seats will be on the ballot.  They're currently held by D Anna Tovar and Rs Lea Marquez Peterson and Jim O'Connor.  While I expect that all of them will run for reelection I cannot and will not guess at what the primary fields will look like here.