2016 Committees Update

...This will be a quick post because a lot of plans are on hold, waiting for Monday's pending decision by the US Supreme Court on the Arizona Legislature's attempt to usurp control of the state's redistricting process from the people of Arizona.  Once that decision is made public, the dominoes will start falling...


- In Maricopa County, Royce Flora, the deputy county treasurer, has filed for a run at the top spot in the office, currently held by Charles Hoskins, who is retiring.

Won't say that he is the "annointed" candidate, buuuuttttt... :)

From his campaign paperwork -

- The cities of Mesa, Tempe, and Scottsdale have been quiet on the candidate filings front.

- Filings for legislative seats have been quiet, though that will change once the Supreme Court hands down its decision.  Some legislators will decide to run for Congress, others will take a pass.  Which names do which will vary depending on the decision.

- Filings for runs for Congress and US Senate have also been quiet, and pretty much for the same reason.

While she hasn't filed anything yet (none that I could find, anyway), Democratic State Rep. Victoria Steele has announced that she is exploring a run for the Congressional seat, representing the 2nd Arizona district (basically, southern Arizona).

The seat is currently held by Martha McSally.  If the Supreme Court supports the Republicans in the state legislature, it is expected that they will strengthen the R advantage in that district (and most of the other Congressional districts in AZ, for that matter) and that Steele will take a pass.

If the status quo of having Congressional districts that are drawn by a voter-created Independent Redistricting Commission is maintained?

McSally is probably out of a job.

Kirkpatrick running for Senate: Dominoes will start falling

Crossposted from Blog for Arizona



...And I don't mean the pizza place, either...

With the announcement that Democratic Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick (CD1) will challenge John McCain (R-Warmonger) for the US Senate seat that he currently holds, expect current state legislators to look at the CD1 seat...and other, lower-level, electeds to look at running for the legislative seats being vacated by those looking to run for Congress, and so on.

And that's not even considering the possibility of one or more additional members of Congress going after McCain's seat (i.e. - Kyrsten Sinema (D-CD9) and/or Matt Salmon (R-CD5) ).

Nor does it consider the possibility of a political newby/unknown entering (and upending) a race.

And finally, it doesn't factor in what the Supreme Court will rule in the case before it, where the Republicans in the Arizona Legislature sued to wrest control of the decennial Congressional redistricting process from the voter-created Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission.  The USSC will issue its ruling on the issue in the coming weeks, and a ruling in favor of the legislature could result in a wholesale redrawing of Arizona's Congressional districts.

A ruling for the lege will result in many Rs jumping into races for what they consider to be "safe" districts; a ruling for the status quo will result in more Ds running for "competitive" districts.
Among the names being bandied about (and as the US Constitution requires only that candidates for Congress live in the state, not the district, most of these people could be considered to be carpetbaggers of a mild sort):

Update on 5/26/2015:

- Catherine Miranda, Democratic state senator, has already announced that she is "exploring" a run for the CD1 seat.  Her main claim to fame: she endorsed Republican Doug Ducey for governor in 2014, which probably won't help her much in a Democratic primary.

End Update...

- Andy Tobin, Republican former speaker of the AZ House, a former candidate for Congress, and current head of the soon-to-cease-to-exist Arizona Department of Weights and Measures

- Carlisle Begay, faux-Democratic state senator; had already been rumored to be considering a challenge to Kirkpatrick.  OK, the only real question about his candidacy was if he was going to run as a D or an R...


- Ben Quayle, R former Congressman; last seen working as a lobbyist

- Adam Kwasman, R former state representative and candidate for Congress

- Frank Antenori, R former state senator and candidate for Congress

- Russell Pearce, recalled R former president of the state senate (who has been making noises about a political comeback of some sort)

- Kelli Ward, R state senator who's exploring a challenge to McCain; she may decide that a run at a vacant Congressional seat is more viable

- Christine Jones, R former candidate for governor, who's always in the rumor mix when there is an open seat

- Chad Campbell, D former minority leader in the AZ House of Representatives, who is widely expected to run for a higher office.  The only real questions about that regard which office and when

- Paul Babeu, R sheriff in Pinal County.  Once considered a rising star among the Rs, he briefly ran for Congress in 2012.  During that campaign, news broke that he is gay.  End of campaign for Congress.  Still working the nativist circles in the Republican Party, so he may be looking for another run at higher office

- Jamescita Peshlakai, D state representative; unlike most of the people named about, she actually lives in northern AZ

- Chris Deschene, D former state legislator and former candidate for president of the Navajo Nation; widely respected and always on the short list of potential candidates in northern Arizona

- Ken Bennett, R former secretary of state and state legislator, he's been raising his visibility recently; while he now lives in Maricopa County, he has ties to northern AZ

More dominoes will fall once the USSC renders its decision, so stay tuned...

Kirkpatrick mounting a 2016 run for US Senate in 2016

The first "Wow!" moment of the 2016 election cycle, courtesy a tweet (via Facebook status) from Brahm Resnik of Phoenix channel 12 -

The full story is here.

2016 races already heating up...local races, anyway

OK, mostly in Tempe, because Tempe is small enough that they still conduct their elections on a March/May calendar (for elections in larger municipalities, counties, the state, and federal offices, an August/November calendar is used).

For Tempe City Council:

Randy Keating, a long-time community activist and leader, has filed for a run.  Tempe icon Harry Mitchell (former: high school teacher, city council member, mayor, state senator, and Congressman) will be serving as his campaign chairman.

Keating, courtesy Keating for Council

Phil Amorosi, another long-time community activist and leader, has filed for a run.

Amorosi at a community event, June 2014

Joel Navarro, incumbent member of the council, has filed for a re-election run.

Courtesy Navarro's Twitter page

Robert Kizere, yet another long-time community activist and leader, has filed for a run.


For Tempe Mayor:

No filings as yet, but incumbent Mark Mitchell is running for re-election.

Mitchell at a community event, March 2015

Others will file for both races; stay tuned.



For Scottsdale City Council:

So far, only incumbent Suzanne Clapp has filed.

Courtesy Klapp for Council

Others will get into the race...


I couldn't find any new/significant filings for city of Mesa, Maricopa County, state, or federal offices as of 8:00 p.m. on 5/13/2015 (caveat: the county elections database was down tonight).

Yet.  That will change. :)

It's 2015, but candidates are already filing for 2016

The calendar still says that it is 2015, but some candidates have already started filing paperwork for 2016 runs for office*.

* = Filing of campaign paperwork is no guarantee that a particular candidate will be on a ballot next year, or, if they've indicated a particular office on their current paperwork, that they will be running for that particular office in 2016.

In other words, this is a snapshot of right now.  Things will change in the weeks and months ahead.

Note: In the interest of brevity, most office holders who have filed for reelection to the same office will not be covered here

Note2: "R" = Republican, "D" = Democrat, "I" = Independent or other party


Committees for state level office (courtesy the website of the Arizona Secretary of State):

R Susan Bittersmith, current member of the AZ Corporation Commission, filed for reelection

R Bob Burns, current member of the AZ Corporation Commission, filed for reelection

R Daniel Cassidy, challenger, filed for LD24 House

D Barry McCain, challenger, filed for LD11 House

D Eric Meyer, current state representative, filed for LD28 Senate

I Alex O'Neil (full name: Michael Alexander O'Neil), challenger, filed for LD9 Senate

R Frank Pratt, current state representative, filed for LD8 Senate

R Brice Willoughby, challenger, filed for LD28 House

D Paula Aboud, former legislator, filed exploratory paperwork for an unspecified office

D Sean Bowie, challenger, filed exploratory paperwork for LD18 Senate

R Steve Montenegro, current state representative, filed exploratory paperwork for an unspecified office


Committees for Maricopa County offices:

R Bill Montgomery, current County Attorney, filed for reelection

R Helen Purcell, current County Recorder, filed for reelection

D John Rowan, challenger, filed for Sheriff

I Kenneth Wayne Baker, challenger, filed for Sheriff

R Roger Baldwin, challenger, filed for Sheriff

R Joe Arpaio, current County Sheriff, filed for reelection in 2013

D Tim Coomer, challenger, filed for Sheriff as a $500 Threshold Exception candidate (meaning that his committee cannot raise or spend more than $500 in pursuit of the office)


Committees for Pima County offices:

D Joel Feinman, challenger, filed exploratory paperwork for County Attorney




Committee for federal office:

D Cesar Chavez, aka former R Scott Fistler, challenger, filed for CD7

R Dave Giles, challenger, filed for CD9

R Gary Kiehne, challenger, filed for CD1

I John Mealer, challenger, filed for US Senate

R Kelli Ward, currently a state senator, filed exploratory paperwork for a run at R John "Never Met A War He Didn't Monger" McCain for US Senate, from the right (filed with the IRS, not the FEC)


Rumors (no paperwork yet, but fairly credible nonetheless):

R Ken Bennett, former AZSOS, is rumored to be looking at a CD9 run in the US Supreme Court allows the AZ legislature to redraw the district in a way that is less "competitive" and more "R-leaning"

R Matt Salmon, currently a member of Congress, is being urged to challenge McCain from the right for the US Senate seat