2014 committees/speculation update

A brief post, mostly because there isn't much news yet...

...State Rep. John Kavanagh (R-Fountain Hills) has opened an exploratory committee for a run at the state senate seat in LD23 (North Scottsdale, Fountain Hills).  The Yellow Sheet Report (the Arizona Capitol Times' pricey political gossip sheet) reported this development as if it was unexpected news, but...

1.  The current state senator from LD23 is Michele Reagan, and she is (unofficially, at this point) running for AZ Secretary of State in 2014, leaving an opening there.

2.  Kavanagh is termed out of the House and cannot run for reelection to the House in 2014, which leaves a run for statewide office (probably doesn't have the name rec for such a run and I haven't heard of him expressing any interest in a statewide office), a run for Congress (which would probably mean a primary fight against David Schweikert, the incumbent member of Congress in his area, and Schweikert just beat up on the deep-pocketed Ben Quayle.  A Kavanagh challenge to him probably isn't feasible right now...plus I haven't heard of him expressing any interest in this area, either), or a run for state senate.

LD23 is a very Republican district; the winner of the R primary there *will* end up winning the general, and the two people who, in my estimation, could defeat him in the primary aren't interested (current State Sen. Michele Reagan is apparently running for another office, and former State Sen. Carolyn Allen is retired now).  Someone may step up and challenge him, but until he is actually defeated, the seat is presumed to be his for the taking.

In short, while this was reported as news, there is nothing unexpected here.


...Former State Sen. Jerry Lewis (R-Mesa) has renewed his committee, possibly in preparation for another run for the LD26 seat.  Lewis defeated Russell Pearce in the 2011 Pearce recall election, only to be defeated in his bid for a full term by Representative (soon to be "Senator") Ed Ableser (D-Tempe).

Are the 2014 elections over yet? Campaign committee update...

Nah.  It's just started.

Even though the calendar hasn't changed even to 2013 yet, some intrepid souls have already formed candidate or exploratory committees for 2014.

First, however, one last note from the 2012 elections.

In the race to serve out two years of a term as the Arrowhead Justice of the Peace (Maricopa County), Craig Wismer, a former staffer for the soon-to-be retired US Sen. Jon Kyl, emerged victorious from the field of nine write-in candidates.  They all had to run as write-ins because the previous occupant of the office had been removed from office after the deadline for candidates to be on the ballot.  Assuming that he wants a full term in the office, Wismer will have to run again in 2014.


On to the main thrust of this post. :)

Already forming committees are:

Democrat Christopher Campas of Sierra Vista for Secretary of State.  An active Democrat and member of the state party's executive board, but to the best of my knowledge has never held elected office.

Independent Diana Elizabeth Ramseys-Rasmussen-Kennedy of Phoenix for Governor.  Just speculating here, but given the committee's current campaign finance report is a week late, and counting, and the committee's email address is youvefoundme@hotmail.com, this probably isn't a serious candidacy.

Republican Jack Harper, currently a state representative, has an open committee for a run at secretary of state, but he has announced that he will not pursue elected office in 2014.  Things could still change, but at this point, he looks like he is putting his political career on the back burner for a while.

Democrat Sharon Thomas of Phoenix for superintendent of public instruction.  As with Campas above, an active D, including time on the state party executive board, and no elected office experience (again, to the best of my knowledge).

Republican John Huppenthal, currently the state superintendent of public instruction, has an open exploratory committee, no office specified.  Could be for a re-election run, but given that the top two offices on the ballot (Governor and Secretary of State) will be "open", he could set his sights higher.

Republican Michelle Reagan, currently a state senator, has an open exploratory committee, no office specified.  This is a normal practice for her as it allows her to fund raise for her next legislative campaign, but this could be the cycle where she goes for a statewide office.

James Samuelson of Mesa, no party specified, has an open exploratory for a run at governor.  Don't know anything about his, and his name makes for lousy search terms.

A few of the other names sure to be mentioned for 2014, even if they don't have open committees as yet:

Democrats Fred Duval and Chad Campbell are likely to run for governor.  The knowledge of their interest in the job has moved beyond "rumored", thru "worst-kept secret in AZ politics" to "OK, where do we sign?" (as in "sign a nominating petition").

Democrat Felecia Rotellini seems likely to run for attorney general.  She was the Democratic nominee for AG in 2010 and was an impressive candidate.  She was swamped in the Republican wave that year, but given that her opponent that year, eventual victor Tom Horne, may be indicted before the end of his term, she may find the way a little smoother in 2014.

Democrat Rodney Glassman, the 2010 D nominee for US Senate, hasn't announced any specific intentions (at least, not that I've heard), but he just sent out a mailer that announced the birth of his new baby daughter, advised people that he and his wife will be publishing a children's book, that his wife was recently elected to a school board here in Maricopa County (Madison Elementary), and that, oh yeah, he's still serving in the reserves.  The upshot is that either he has so many friends that he qualifies for bulk rate postage when mailing out season's greetings, or he's a politician looking to keep his name in front of people. 

You don't have to be a cynic like me to figure that he's looking at another run for office.  But cynicism helps. :)

I'm sure that there will be more to come...

Andrew Thomas, disgraced former Maricopa County Attorney, threatens to run for governor

News broke today that disbarred former Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas is considering a 2014 run for governor, joining current Governor Jan Brewer in the "whatthehell are the smoking?" club.

Thomas ran amuck as Maricopa County Attorney, misusing his office to attack the county's judiciary, independent media, Latino residents, and any perceived adversaries of him and his staunch ally, Joe Arpaio.

The state bar association finally got fed up with Thomas' antics and brought him to heel, by disbarring him and one of his former assistant county attorneys and suspending another of his assistant CAs.

Since then, he has continued a rhetorical jihad against against the Arizona Bar Association, the county judiciary, and anyone else who declines to smooch his posterior.

Now, he wants voters to ignore his past misuse of office and give him a stint on the 9th Floor so that he can expand his jihad to the whole state. 

I think Thomas may be serious.

Seriously deluded.

However, we can now safely predict at least four of the names that will publicly state, or at least hint at, their interest in a 2014 gubernortorial run -

Brewer, if she can get the state supreme court to go along with her scheme to ignore the state constitution (don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen)

Thomas, if his meds don't kick in (or more likely, if he doesn't start taking them)

Joe Arpaio, the perpetually thisclosetoindicted Maricopa County Sheriff and saddle partner of Thomas (he gets coy about a run in April or May of every gubernortorial election year, but never goes through with it - such a run would require him to resign as county sheriff)

and Fife Symington.  The Fifester was AZ's governor for much of the 1990s, until his conviction in federal court on fraud charges.  The verdict was later overturned on appeal and he was then pardoned by then-President Bill Clinton before he could be retried.  However, he resigned from office upon his conviction on felony charges.  And even though his political career was thoroughly kaput (the post-conviction UFO sighting didn't help make things better), every four years, he hints at another run.

Those hints are greeted mostly by yawns, choruses of "Fife who?", and choruses of "yes!!" from wiseass bloggers.

Of the four, I'd guess that Thomas is most likely to make a real run; the other three have their own reasons to talk big, but those reasons have nothing to do with actually running in 2014.  On the other hand, Thomas has nothing better going on.  Hanging around the house, waiting 

Still, a potential R primary lineup like that is a dream...for Democrats.

OK - and wiseass bloggers, too.  :)

Brewer engages in constitutional quackery in an attempt to stave off imminent lame duck status

From the Arizona Republic, written by Yvonne Wingett Sanchez -

Still suffering postelection hangovers and with votes still being tallied, political junkies in Arizona already have turned toward the 2014 gubernatorial race. For the first time in more than a decade, the seat could be wide open.

{snip}

But the woman who currently occupies the governor’s office on the ninth floor of the Executive Tower may complicate the race, at least for the Republican slate. Gov. Jan Brewer, who completed the final year of former Gov. Janet Napolitano’s term and then successfully ran for a four-year term in 2010, continues to talk publicly about running for a third term.

It would require a legal challenge to the state Constitution. Arizona law permits statewide-elected officials to serve only two consecutive terms. Article 5, Section 1 of the Arizona Constitution states, “No member of the executive department after serving the maximum number of terms, which shall include any part of a term served, may serve in the same office until out of office for no less than one full term.”

Brewer has said there is “ambiguity” in the Constitution, saying she does not read it as barring her from serving 2 1/4 terms.

Joe Kanefield, former general counsel to Brewer who is now in private practice, said the legal question centers on the definition of “term.” He has said drafters were referring to a governor who was elected to a term and not to a governor who inherited the office by succession.

“I haven’t ruled it out, and I’ve been encouraged by people — legal scholars and other people — that it’s probably something that I ought to pursue,” Brewer told The Arizona Republic.

I don't normally quote this much from a linked article, but Sanchez cited the exact section of the AZ Constitution that I was going to, and given the number of times that I've criticized the Republic for shoddy work, it's only fair to give credit where it is due.

Governor Brewer and her hired mouthpiece can protest that there is "ambiguity" in the section, but it's pretty clear.  What is also pretty clear is that the Governor and her advisors/handlers are also fully aware that she has to do something to remain relevant at the Capitol.

As a lame duck governor, she is rapidly losing influence because she is viewed as not having a significant say in the choice of her successor.  As such, various legislators and other "players" will be focused on positioning themselves for a run at the office on the 9th Floor of the Executive Tower, or in crafting an alliance with the person they think stands the best chance of winning.

Oh, and a couple of asides -

1. Brewer is quoted as saying that the AZ Constitution does not bar her from serving 2 1/4 terms.  Without getting into the validity of that claim (OK - it's crap), "2 1/4"?  Try closer to "2 1/2" terms, and then only if she is able to overturn the will of the voters as expressed when we enacted term limits on Arizona's state-level elected officials. 

She ascended to the governor's office on January 21, 2009; that means she was in the office three weeks less than two years before she started the term she was elected into.  That's a lot closer to half of an elected term than it is to a quarter.  Of course, the difference is really no difference at all - the way that the law is written, even one day sworn into an office starts the term limits clock.

During the Spring 2013 semester her alma mater, Glendale Community College, is offering three sections of POS221, Arizona Constitution.  There are in-person and online sections available, but I suggest an in-person class for her (and perhaps, her "legal scholars and other people") -

At an in-person class, she can ask the instructor to clearly explain "...which shall include any part of a term served...".

2. In this specific situation, it's likely that even if she mounts a successful legal challenge to the Arizona Constitution, the voters may just turn her "success" into a resounding failure.  None of us - left, right, Democratic, Republican, independent, Libertarian, Green, engaged, apathetic, whatever - none of us approve of politicians who show blatant contempt for our expressed wishes.

With a move calculated to stave off imminent lame-duck status, Jan Brewer only gets lamer

The Obama Administration is rolling out a "deferred action" policy, affecting undocumented immigrants.  Under the policy, eligible undocumented immigrants can apply for a deferral of removal proceedings (aka - deportation) for a renewable two-year period.

Approval for the program will not confer "legal" status upon the affected immigrants, though they may receive authorization to legally work in the US during the deferral period.

Naturally, the nativists have wigged out.

Arizona's highest-ranking nativist, Governor Jan Brewer (in comparison to Arizona's rankest nativist, Russell Pearce) weighed in with her two cents' worth, issuing an executive order to make sure that undocument immigrants can't get any public benefits, something which they *aren't* granted by the President's new policy.

Yes, this means that Brewer issued a meaningless executive order to counter President Obama's meaningful one.

Now, it could be that Chuck Coughlin (aka - the person who really controls the Ninth Floor) may have taken a day off, and this is completely the product of Brewer's intellect, but it seems likely that this order is really intended to remind legislative Republicans that she is still the governor. 

A reminder that she hopes finds its mark, because she is rapidly approaching political irrelevance.

Once the new legislature is seated, she will be viewed mostly as a bystander by the Rs in the lege, as they jockey for position for the 2014 race for the office she currently holds.  Each and every one of them will be focused on throwing elbows as they position themselves for a run at the office or to ally themselves with the person they consider to be the strongest candidate.  Since she's term-limited, she cannot be that person, hence she is totally meaningless in their world (this part isn't a dig at Brewer, it just *is*.  She's not the first officeholder this could be said about, and she won't be the last).

So, Jan Brewer thinks that her path to continued relevance is to issue an irrelevant order?


Personally, I actually hope that Coughlin was out of town or getting a root canal or something, anything, that left a Nurse Ratched wanna-be in charge of the asylum for a day.

And only a day.

Arizona is in bad enough shape with Brewer as the titular head of Arizona's government; if she actually runs things (say...if Coughlin moves on to the next puppet "client" before the 2014 election), there may not be much of an Arizona left for the winner of the 2014 election to govern.

OK, this last part *is* a dig at Brewer.  As if you couldn't tell. :)

NY Times coverage of the deferral program here.
CBS News coverage of Brewer here.

Early speculation time: 2014 Governor's race - Part Two

A few days ago, I posted a snark-filled piece full of speculation on possible Republican candidates for governor in 2014.

Out of a sense of fairness, I'm now doing one on potential Democratic candidates.

Out of a sense of partisanship, it will be less snarky...at least, less snarky toward the Democratic candidates. :)

As with the prior post, no actual discussions with the potential candidates took place in the production of this post.  In no way does a mention in this post indicate that someone is planning or interested in running for governor of Arizona, nor does lack of a mention in this post indicate that someone is *not* planning or interested in running for governor of Arizona.

As with the previous post on this topic, the names mentioned are those who have held office previously or who have otherwise made an impact on the metaphorical public square.

On to the speculation:

Terry Goddard, former attorney general and candidate for governor:
- Con: has run for governor and lost, twice.
- Pro: both of the ultimate victors of the races for governor (Fife Symington, Jan Brewer) that he was in have brought great national ridicule down upon Arizona.  The voters may finally be ready to choose competence over ideological blathering.
- Con2:  This is Arizona.  Don't hold your breath.

Janet Napolitano, former governor:
- Con: she resigned as governor in 2009 to take a position in President Barack Obama's cabinet, leaving Arizona fading in her rear-view mirror.
- Pro: regardless of the outcome of the 2012 presidential election, she may be interested in moving on - - if the Rs win, a whole new cabinet will be brought in to DC; if Obama wins, pretty much the same will happen.  Second term presidential cabinets are usually very different than the cabinets for the first term of the same president.  And three-plus years of "Governor Jan Brewer" have only served to increase the amount of respect people have for Napolitano.
- Con2: as Secretary of Homeland Security, Napolitano has only had to deal with terrorists, spies, and grave threats to America.  As governor, she might not be willing to again deal with scourges upon society like the Arizona legislature, the Goldwater Institute, and the Center for Arizona Policy.

Gabrielle Giffords, former member of Congress:
- Con: still recovering from a horrific assassination attempt that took the lives of six people, including a small child, and injured more than a dozen other people.
- Pro: if her recovery, already nothing short of miraculous, progresses well enough for her to handle the rigors of the job, and she actually wants the job, the election will be less a contest than a walk-over.

Harry Mitchell, former member of Congress:
- Con: after nearly five decades of public service, he may have reached the point of his life where he is ready to leave the "top of the ballot" stuff - walking precincts and making appearances on the rubber chicken circuit to those with younger legs and digestive tracts.
- Pro: one of the most respected people in Arizona politics, and one of the few left where the respect genuinely crosses partisan lines.

Phil Gordon, former mayor of Phoenix -
- Pro: still has an effective organization and base of support in what is the largest city and county in the state.
- Con: the Rs despise him, and he is far from popular with grassroots Ds, even in Maricopa County, outside of Phoenix.

Greg Stanton, current mayor of Phoenix -
- Pro: also has an effective organization and base of support in what is the largest city and county in the state.  In addition, he is so new that he hasn't had time to tick off grassroots Ds.
- Con: the Rs despise him, despite knowing next to nothing about him (other than that he isn't one of them), and he is young by political standards.
- Pro2: he may be too young/new for an effective run in 2014, but 2018 and 2022 are well within the realm of realistic possibility.

Felecia Rotellini, 2010 candidate for attorney general -
- Pro: while she didn't win in 2010, she had the best performance of any D candidate during that cycle and garnered a lot of respect across the political spectrum.  She's smart, energetic, and universally well-liked among Democrats.  It helps that the guy who won the 2010 election, Tom Horne, is widely considered to be a sleazeball and is under federal investigation for campaign finance violations.
Con - while she's been a public servant before, she has never actually held elected office.  Like Napolitano before her, a term as AG might be necessary to elevate her name recognition among the general public before running for the top spot.

Sandra Kennedy, current member of the Arizona Corporation Commission -
- Pro: intelligent, experienced and one of only two Democrats to hold statewide elected office.
- Con: as with Brenda Burns in the previous post, the ACC isn't the highest-profile perch from which to launch a run at a high-profile job.  Unlike Burns however, Kennedy actually does some good work for the people of AZ, and as such, she doesn't have access to scads of corporate money.

Other names that may come up in conversation:

Rep. Chad Campbell, House minority leader: smart but young enough that like Stanton above, 2014 may be too soon; Kyrsten Sinema, former state legislator and current candidate for Congress: also young, and has her sights set much higher than the 9th floor of the Executive Tower; Steve Gallardo, state legislator: could go for it in 2014, but young enough to wait until 2018/2022 and use the time to both consolidate and expand his base of support; Ruben Gallego, state legislator:  if the others are young by political standards, he's a bambino.  A bambino with ambition, however.  2014 is too soon, and 2018/2022 may also be too soon, but after that...?; Neil Giuliano, former Republican and former mayor of Tempe:  made noises about a run in 2010, but was pretty much unknown outside of Tempe.  Would need to elevate his name rec among the general public.

A couple of wildcards:

Sue Gerard and Kris Mayes, the former head of the state Department of Health Services and chair of the Arizona Corporation Commission, respectively.  They're Republicans who have actually done good work for the people of Arizona.  As such, they'd never get through a Republican primary in the current political environment.  Not likely to even consider becoming Democrats, but given the amount of respect that people have for them, they could make things interesting.

Later...

Early speculation time: 2014 Governor's race

What with Governor Jan Brewer looking to weasel her way into a run for a third term and AZ Secretary of State Ken Bennett trying to clear the primary field for his run for governor (he has since backed off a little, but look for more moves like his attempt to knock President Obama off of the ballot), it's time to start talking about who might be running for governor in 2014.

Yes, it is early, but since at this point of this year's election cycle, it's "hurry up and wait" time until we see which candidates become known as candidates who couldn't get their signature in... :)

Also, this list is limited to those folks who have held office already or have made a serious impression in the metaphorical public square; rich people who believe that they can just buy the seat (yes that's you, Buz Mills) aren't included, mostly because I don't know their names.

On to the speculation, Republican candidates first (and it's just that - no actual persons were spoken to for this post.  I don't know the actual plans or wishes of the people mentioned in the post) -

Jan Brewer, current governor -
- Pro: probably has the highest name recognition among Republicans, other than perhaps Joe Arpaio.
- Con: that pesky Arizona Constitution.

Tom Horne, current attorney general -
- Pro: he hasn't been indicted or disbarred yet.
- Con: it's still early.

Ken Bennett, current secretary of state -
- Pro: until the last week, he was considered to be one of the few sane Republicans in Arizona politics
- Con: the events of the last week.  Turns out that kissing up to the birthers quickly moves one into the "batshit crazy" category.

John Huppenthal, current superintendent of public instruction -
- Pro (at least as far as R primary voters are concerned): hates people with brown skin, hates public education, and hates education for people with brown skin.
- Con: in a general election, people with brown skin, educated people, and educated people with brown skin can and do vote.

Doug Ducey, current state treasurer -
- Pro: no one knows who he is, and given that you only know any treasurer's name when the police and prosecutors get involved, that's a good thing.
- Con: no one knows who he is, and given that being a down-ballot candidate in a Republican wave year (2010) is very different than being a top-of-the-ballot candidate in what looks to be a tough year, that's not such a good thing.

Steve Pierce, current president of the state senate -
- Pro: hey, he's a rural kind of guy, yeehaw!, and he's more civil than his predecessor.
- Con: Prescott, in northern AZ, may not provide the strongest power base for a statewide run.  Most of the state's population is in the central and southern parts of the state.

Andy Tobin, current speaker of the state house of representatives -
- Pro: hey, he's a rural kind of guy, yeehaw!, and he's...a rural kind of guy.  Yeehaw. :)
- Con: his base of operations is near Prescott, only smaller.  And he's a Yankees fan.

Brenda Burns, current member of the corporation commission -
- Pro: a darling of ALEC (former president of it), has access to scads of corporate money.
- Con: an ACC slot may be a statewide office, but it's so low-profile that only hardcore political junkies and lobbyists can name them.  And with the murder of Trayvon Martin, rationalized by Florida's ALEC/NRA-pushed kill at will "stand your ground" law, the ALEC connections may not be so fruitful for the next few years.

Joe Arpaio, current sheriff of Maricopa County -
- Pro: highest name recognition among AZ's Republicans.  Everybody has heard of him and has an opinion of him.
- Con: not all of those opinions are positive.  Not hardly.  If he hasn't been indicted by then, he'll publicly flirt with a run (he does every four years), but even he knows that he wouldn't last in a job with serious scrutiny from the media and the public.  Note:  there is a big difference between "scrutiny" and "mindless adoration".

Other names that might come up in conversation:

- Hugh Hallman, soon to be former mayor of Tempe - wants it, but in a statewide race, would have trouble winning even his own home town.

- Jay Tibshraeny and Scott Smith - the mayors of Chandler and Mesa respectively.  Thoroughly conservative, but have still been able to do some good work for their municipalities.  Given that current R orthodoxy calls for contempt for actual public servants, they could never get through a primary (and there *will* be one in 2014).

- John Shadegg, former member of Congress.  Last seen in some kind of role with the Goldwater Institute; not sure if he would take a job with less influence at the Capitol.


When I get bored again (a couple of days), I'll do a post on possible Democratic candidates.  It won't be as snarky. :))

Jack Harper wants a promotion

...He's leaving, but he's not leaving soon enough, and he's not going far enough, to benefit the state.

State Rep. Jack Harper (R-Surprise) today announced that he will not seek reelection in November.  He sent out an email to supporters stating his desire to run for Arizona Secretary of State and then, perhaps, be an ambassador to a foreign country.

Not exactly being one of his supporters, I wasn't included on the email distribution list. (Shocking, that.  :)) )

However, our Jack is a dedicated user of Twitter.  From his Twitter feed -

Zeroing in -

For once, I'll leave the wiseass comments to you the reader.  Mostly.

Realistically, Harper has almost no chance to get through a Republican primary, and for the second-highest elected office in the state, there surely will be one (he won't be challenging the current AZSOS, Ken Bennett.  Bennett is term-limited and will be running for governor in 2014.)

For an open seat that is a heartbeat away from the 9th floor, Republicans of all stripes will be going for that office (that means that the SOS is next in line for the governorship, and given that it has been a quarter-century since Arizona had a governor who both entered and exited office as the result of an election, most recent AZSOS' have ascended to the governor's office.  Which is on the ninth floor of the state capitol's Executive Tower.)

In fact, Harper has a better chance at becoming an ambassador.  So long as he doesn't get too picky about his assignment.

Currently, the US has only a "Virtual Presence Post" in Somalia, but for someone of Harper's caliber,
I'm sure that the State Department will find the money in their budget to put up a new facility in Somalia.

If one considers a lean-to against the back of a broken-down Winnebago to be a "facility."

Note:  I went with pics of the tweets in question instead of simply quoting them because if/when Harper's SOS campaign fails, those tweets could disappear.

Terry Goddard and Paul Johnson tell Tom Horne: Enough already

Former Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard and former mayor of Phoenix Paul Johnson wrote an op-ed published in Saturday's edition of the Arizona Republic.

In it, they criticize Arizona's current AG, Tom Horne for using his office to bolster the efforts by his fellow Republicans to intimidate the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission (AIRC).

Some choice quotes from the piece (and you really should read all of it) -

...Attorney General Tom Horne recently announced an investigation of the commission - breaking a longstanding attorney general protocol of never discussing pending investigations before a lawsuit is filed or a grand jury has returned an indictment.

...The power of the Attorney General's Office must not be or appear to be subverted for partisan purposes.


Members of this commission are volunteers who have stepped forward to serve the people of Arizona. They deserve our thanks, not constant attacks. But more important, it was Arizona voters who took redistricting out of the hands of politicians when they approved Prop. 106. Voters went to great lengths to ensure this commission was truly independent, insulated from pressure from politicians who care most about staying in office.

...In all this furor, one thing is certain: If the commission does its job right, neither Republicans nor Democrats are going to be completely happy - exactly what Arizona voters wanted when they passed Prop. 106.

...We call on Attorney General Horne to end his part in the intimidation campaign and allow the commission to focus on the important duties entrusted to it by Arizona voters.

Goddard and Johnson were far more eloquent and tactful than I would be if I was sitting across a table from Horne.

My take, or what I would say to him in such a situation:

Mr. Horne, you are a man who wants to be governor of a state that's ever more purple (note: outside of Maricopa County, Arizona voter registration leans slightly D, and even more importantly, there have been major increases in Independent voter registration levels in all parts of the state) and most residents, even some partisans, are thoroughly disgusted with elected officials brazenly using their offices for personal and partisan gain.

Your bullying tactics may help you in the 2014 Republican gubernatorial primary, but they will hurt your chances of winning the general election, something that is open to *all* voters, not just Republicans.

To sum up - cut the crap, quit worrying about your next job, and just do your current job right.  Doing that will increase your chances at getting that next job.

Later...

BTW - Am I the only one who noticed that the Republic buried the Goddard/Johnson piece on Saturday, perhaps the lowest circulation day of the week?  Could it be they're quietly (quietly for now, anyway) siding with those who are working to undermine the independence of the "Independent" Redistricting Commission?

Short Attention Span Musing

...Is Frank Antenori angling for a promotion...or just another electoral beat-down?

H/T to The Range at the Tucson Citizen (Mari Herreras and Dan Gibson) , AZBlueMeanie at Blog for Arizona and Tedski at Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion for spotting this...

State Sen. Frank Antenori (R-Tucson)  has all but announced that he will run for Congress next year by posting a faux-poll on his Facebook page asking for "advice" from readers.

He wanted to know if they thought he should run for Congress or stay in the Arizona Legislature.  Maybe someone should remind him what happened the last time he ran for Congress.

In 2006, he came in fourth in a five-way R primary in CD8, looking to replace the retiring Jim Kolbe, a spot eventually won by Democrat Gabrielle Giffords.

He received 4.12% of the vote.


...It looks as if Hugh Hallman is getting out of Tempe while the getting is good...

From the East Valley Tribune, written by Garin Groff -

Tempe Mayor Hugh Hallman said he’ll stay involved in civic issues and is open to seeking another office after stepping down next June.


Hallman announced he won’t seek a third term while decrying the state of politics in Arizona. He’d like to address challenges he sees at the state and federal levels, though he hasn’t decided just how yet.

It's long been rumored that Hallman has his eye on higher office.  It appears as if he is setting up a statewide run for 2014, though run for Congress or Fulton Brock's seat as a Maricopa County supervisor next year isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Note: Neither Hallman nor Antenori has an active campaign committee at the federal, state, or county levels that I can find, as of this writing.


...Russell Pearce may not be toast yet, he's definitely feeling the heat.

Word has gotten out that the Maricopa County Recorder's Office has unofficially validated more than enough petition signatures to force a recall election.  Most electeds in his position would at least pretend to care about their images, but not Pearce.

Nope.  He went on KAET's Horizon on Thursday and started spouting outrageous, and more importantly for the people who have united to unseat him, easily disproven lies about those people.

This on top of a week spend dealing with criticisms over his handling of the "special session to nowhere," the special session called to change a single word in Arizona law that would have allowed 15,000 Arizonans to continue receiving federally-funded unemployment benefits?

The "special" session where the Republicans in the legislature refused to act to help average Arizonans who need the help, unless the corporate benefactors of those Republicans got another big tax cut?

Not a good week for Pearce.


...Not a good week for John Huppenthal, either.

To great fanfare, the man who is Arizona's Superintendent of Public Instruction pronounced that Tucson's Mexican American Studies program is illegal and must be changed or shut down.

As part of his supporting "evidence" he cited an audit conducted by a private firm.

The problem?  The audit he cited actually found that the program didn't violate the law.

Though as Huffington Post's Jeff Biggers points out here, Huppenthal may have done so himself.

Oopsie.

Later...

2014 speculation already starting...

Hot on the heels of Jan Brewer's floating of the "term limits don't apply to me" trial balloon, announcing her interest in a third term as governor, Mike Sunnucks of the Phoenix Business Journal put out a 2014 speculation piece.

As should probably should have been expected, it was mostly filler of the  "I'm a political reporter and the legislature is out of session, so I have to come up with *something* to keep my editor happy" variety.

Well, if a trained, experienced, professional journalist gets to do that, so can a lowly amateur blogger (that's my way of saying that it's time for a little filler here :) ).

In his article, Sunnucks mentioned a few names.  Here's my take on those names, plus a few more added for good measure -

Jan Brewer - she may want it, but she is unlikely to get it.  Those pesky term limits will get in the way.

Ken Bennett - as Secretary of State, he's the heir apparent on the R side.  Formed an "exploratory" committee this past week, so should have a large campaign warchest by the time 2014 rolls around.  The presumptive frontrunner in the general election, with the caveat:  it's three years out.

Tom Horne - current AG and has had his eye on the 9th floor for years.  Best shot may be if a D wins in 2014 and he can challenge as the R frontrunner in 2018.  May be too old after that.

Paul Babeu - current Pinal County Sheriff.  I think this one is just pure filler on Sunnucks' part, but given the state of R politics anything could happen.  Still, seems more likely to pursue a Congressional run rather than a statewide run to take advantage of fame/notoriety in a single area of the state.

John Shadegg - former Congressman and current lobbyist "fellow" at the Goldwater Institute.  Could happen, but why would he want the instant and permanent migraine known as the Arizona Legislature?

Scott Smith - current mayor of Mesa.  I don't know enough about him to comment.

Hugh Hallman and Jim Lane - the mayors of Tempe and Scottsdale, respectively.  Both are up for reelection next year and neither is a lock (though Lane is in better shape).  Either one would have to win reelection and then raise his statewide profile.  Hallman has ambitions but probably needs to solidify his wavering base of support in Tempe before even *thinking* of a statewide run.  If Lane runs, the marionette strings will run right back to the Goldwater Institute and Lamar Whitmer.

My adds -

Russell Pearce - current president of the state senate (at least until the recall petitions are certified) and would love to be publicly considered the "top dog," but a move to the ninth floor would be a step up in paycheck size but a step down in practical political power.  And Pearce is all about power.  If he does go for it, however, he could get through an R primary, but may be too polarizing for the general election.

Fife Symington - former governor and pardoned convicted felon.  Makes noises about running again every four years.  Fellow Republicans want nothing to do with him, but Democrats pray that he runs and wins the nomination.  May be why he never follows through on his threats to run again.

Brenda Burns - current member of the Arizona Corporation Commission.  Big Fan of Big Business, and Big Business is a Big Fan of hers.  ACC isn't exactly the highest profile perch from which to launch a high profile campaign, but if the chips fall the right way, could trade in her ACC reelection campaign for a campaign for governor.

Joe Arpaio - currently the rather infamous sheriff in Maricopa County.  Like Symington, makes noises every four years.  Unlike Symington, has more than a snowball's chance in Phoenix of pulling it off on the R side.  Still, even if he avoids federal indictment, come 2014 he'll be, like, 900 years old (actually, 82).  For a lot of reasons, not gonna happen.

First 2012 Congressional candidate for the Rs?

From the Arizona Republic -

Tim La Sota, chief of staff to Scottsdale Mayor Jim Lane, has resigned to join Scottsdale-based Rose Law Group, he said.

La Sota, an attorney, became Lane's chief of staff when the mayor's term began in January 2009. He will remain with the city through Nov. 26.

LaSota has already been moonlighting for the Rose Law Group, working on its defense of SB1070.  That isn't a big surprise, since he was one of uber-nativist Andrew Thomas' lobbyists/hangers-on during Thomas' tenure as Maricopa County Attorney.
There was also some hubbub recently over certain high-ranking staffers, and LaSota was one, who received lucrative raises when rank-and-file city employees are looking at stagnant or even declining pay and scaled back benefits (or the City passing an increasing portion of the costs of those benefits to the employees).  It's possible that Jim Lane/Lamar Whitmer orchestrated this to help minimize political fallout during the next election cycle.  Lane will be up for reelection then.

Still, this seems to be more a move to set up a possible electoral run in two or four years than political damage control.  In Scottsdale, the only people who care about the average City employee (or resident, for that matter) getting screwed over are the screwees themselves.

As a City employee, however, there would be all sorts of legal, ethical, and practical restrictions on his ability to raise money for and run a campaign for elected office.

Tim LaSota is the son of Jack LaSota, a former AZ attorney general and currently a lawyer and lobbyist.  His dad is an insider's insider, and the apple hasn't fallen far from the tree.. 

The question isn't *if* Tim LaSota is going to run for office, it's "when and where" will LaSota will run.

Fact Checking the Arizona Republic

Wherein I have the opportunity to correct one (or more) career journalists on the facts...

One of the advantages of doing this is that I've learned a *lot* about the technical aspects of Arizona politics.  Probably not as much as if I had been a student in one of Harry Mitchell's civics classes at Tempe High, but I've learned enough to actually help out Capitol tour guides on at least one occasion at the legislature.

So my eyebrows raised a little on Sunday when I read this passage from the Arizona Republic's Political Insider column -

Brewer may not have a second in command, but Secretary of State Ken Bennett seems to think he is capable of filling the job.

The "No. 2 spot," as Bennett described his office this week, would get a more powerful title if voters pass Proposition 111. The Nov. 2 ballot measure would essentially eliminate the office of secretary of state, transferring its duties to a newly created lieutenant-governor position.

Bennett said he won't take a stance on propositions that are under his watch as Arizona's current secretary of state, but he supports any "concept" that would make it clear that a vote for secretary of state could be a de facto vote for governor.

During an interview on Wednesday with The Arizona Republic's Editorial Board, Bennett said voters need a reminder that the position he holds is first in line to take over if Arizona's governor dies, resigns or, say, is recruited by the president to be the head of U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

When Brewer, Arizona's former secretary of state, took over for Janet Napolitano, Brewer appointed Bennett to her old job. Now, he is asking voters to elect him as secretary of state over challenger Chris Deschene, D-Window Rock. If he wins, and Prop. 111 passes, voters will be calling him Lt. Gov. Bennett.

Ummm...not-so-minor problem with that last paragraph - if Bennett wins in November, it's highly unlikely that anyone will *ever* refer to him as "Lt. Gov. Bennett."

Even if Prop. 111 passes (far from guaranteed) and survives some inevitable legal challenges (not likely, but more on that tomorrow or Tuesday after I make some phone calls), it won't go into effect until the 2014 cycle.

At that point, if Bennett wins this year, he'll be termed-out as Secretary of State and will be barred from running for the newly-renamed office. 

There *are* a couple of scenarios where Bennett could run for a possible Lt. Governorship.

1. He could lose this year (I like this one - vote Deschene!) and choose to run for it in 2014.

2. He could win this year, serve out the term, take a full term off to reset the term limits clock, and then run for the office again in 2018.

These two scenarios seem highly unlikely.  Regardless of this year's results in the SOS race, if Bennett runs for a statewide office in 2014, it will probably be for Governor.

- If Terry Goddard wins the November election for Governor, look for Bennett, Dean Martin, and one or two other R "big names" to look at challenging him in 2014.

- If Jan Brewer wins in November, she'll be termed-out in 2014 and the race will be for an open seat, and again, Bennett would be in the mix of Rs looking at the seat.

Adding to that is the fact that Bennett is both young enough (~50) and far enough up in Arizona's political food chain that he is still on the "up or out" political trajectory.  Taking a term off and then running for an office he has already held would be seen as the end of the "ascendancy" portion of his career and serve to reduce his credibility as a candidate overall.

Put it all together and neither Bennett nor Deschene (whichever one wins in November) will be referred to as "Lieutenant Governor" after the election, and Bennett will likely never run for that particular office in the event Prop. 111 passes the voters.


More on Prop. 111 later this week...