Kirkpatrick running for Senate: Dominoes will start falling

Crossposted from Blog for Arizona



...And I don't mean the pizza place, either...

With the announcement that Democratic Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick (CD1) will challenge John McCain (R-Warmonger) for the US Senate seat that he currently holds, expect current state legislators to look at the CD1 seat...and other, lower-level, electeds to look at running for the legislative seats being vacated by those looking to run for Congress, and so on.

And that's not even considering the possibility of one or more additional members of Congress going after McCain's seat (i.e. - Kyrsten Sinema (D-CD9) and/or Matt Salmon (R-CD5) ).

Nor does it consider the possibility of a political newby/unknown entering (and upending) a race.

And finally, it doesn't factor in what the Supreme Court will rule in the case before it, where the Republicans in the Arizona Legislature sued to wrest control of the decennial Congressional redistricting process from the voter-created Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission.  The USSC will issue its ruling on the issue in the coming weeks, and a ruling in favor of the legislature could result in a wholesale redrawing of Arizona's Congressional districts.

A ruling for the lege will result in many Rs jumping into races for what they consider to be "safe" districts; a ruling for the status quo will result in more Ds running for "competitive" districts.
Among the names being bandied about (and as the US Constitution requires only that candidates for Congress live in the state, not the district, most of these people could be considered to be carpetbaggers of a mild sort):

Update on 5/26/2015:

- Catherine Miranda, Democratic state senator, has already announced that she is "exploring" a run for the CD1 seat.  Her main claim to fame: she endorsed Republican Doug Ducey for governor in 2014, which probably won't help her much in a Democratic primary.

End Update...

- Andy Tobin, Republican former speaker of the AZ House, a former candidate for Congress, and current head of the soon-to-cease-to-exist Arizona Department of Weights and Measures

- Carlisle Begay, faux-Democratic state senator; had already been rumored to be considering a challenge to Kirkpatrick.  OK, the only real question about his candidacy was if he was going to run as a D or an R...


- Ben Quayle, R former Congressman; last seen working as a lobbyist

- Adam Kwasman, R former state representative and candidate for Congress

- Frank Antenori, R former state senator and candidate for Congress

- Russell Pearce, recalled R former president of the state senate (who has been making noises about a political comeback of some sort)

- Kelli Ward, R state senator who's exploring a challenge to McCain; she may decide that a run at a vacant Congressional seat is more viable

- Christine Jones, R former candidate for governor, who's always in the rumor mix when there is an open seat

- Chad Campbell, D former minority leader in the AZ House of Representatives, who is widely expected to run for a higher office.  The only real questions about that regard which office and when

- Paul Babeu, R sheriff in Pinal County.  Once considered a rising star among the Rs, he briefly ran for Congress in 2012.  During that campaign, news broke that he is gay.  End of campaign for Congress.  Still working the nativist circles in the Republican Party, so he may be looking for another run at higher office

- Jamescita Peshlakai, D state representative; unlike most of the people named about, she actually lives in northern AZ

- Chris Deschene, D former state legislator and former candidate for president of the Navajo Nation; widely respected and always on the short list of potential candidates in northern Arizona

- Ken Bennett, R former secretary of state and state legislator, he's been raising his visibility recently; while he now lives in Maricopa County, he has ties to northern AZ

More dominoes will fall once the USSC renders its decision, so stay tuned...

Kirkpatrick mounting a 2016 run for US Senate in 2016

The first "Wow!" moment of the 2016 election cycle, courtesy a tweet (via Facebook status) from Brahm Resnik of Phoenix channel 12 -

The full story is here.

With polls, both formal and informal, it's all in how the questions are worded

In scientific polls, say, by a professional and unaffiliated pollster, the questions tend to be neutrally worded, to ensure that the responses are as informative as possible.

In less scientific polls, say, by a campaign or a pollster working for a campaign, the questions tend to be less neutral, either to garner a specific response or to test "messaging".

In unscientific polls, say, an online question, the questions tend to serve as clickbait or something designed to a specific response to support a specific argument.

Not surprisingly, anti-voter Arizona Secretary of State Michele Reagan seems to favor the latter, especially when looking to protect the corrupting influence of dark money from the disinfecting sunlight of disclosure.


Reagan is in a tizzy* over the moves of the voter-created Citizens Clean Elections Commission to update its rules regarding campaign finance disclosure, changes that would clarify that entities that are "created within the six months immediately preceding the beginning of a legislative election cycle or that is formed or created during the election cycle and knowingly makes expenditures or takes contributions of $500 or more for any election in this state in a calendar year..." as political committees subject to disclosure requirements.

* - Probably more "cold and calculating fury" than "tizzy", but I believe that the word tizzy isn't used enough these days, so "tizzy" it is. :)

To that end, she has published a "statement" criticizing the CCEC's "power grab".

At the end of that statement, she has appended a poll.

That question, coming at the end of her statement excoriating the CCEC, looks to be crafted to rouse the ire of "small government" partisans, the kind that voted for her for SOS last year.

Apparently, I am not one of her "kind of people" (the kind of partisans who voted for her).

So I voted "Yes" (of course :) ).

Apparently2, the majority of other people voting in this poll aren't exactly her kind of people, either.

After my vote, the following screen appeared -

Hmmm...

Probably not the sort of result that Reagan was looking for when she posted the poll.

On the other hand, she shouldn't be surprised - in scientific poll after scientific poll, the majority of Americans supports more oversight of campaign finance.

If, as I believe she has, she has aspirations to higher office (like the governor's office, which is both higher on the ballot and higher in the Executive Tower than her office), it might behoove her to take the poll results (both scientific and unscientific) into consideration before doubling down on her support of dark money and the anonymous purchase of elections and elected officials.

By the time the Doug Ducey era comes to a close, even the voters of Arizona may be tired of corruption in politics.

And its enablers.

2016 races already heating up...local races, anyway

OK, mostly in Tempe, because Tempe is small enough that they still conduct their elections on a March/May calendar (for elections in larger municipalities, counties, the state, and federal offices, an August/November calendar is used).

For Tempe City Council:

Randy Keating, a long-time community activist and leader, has filed for a run.  Tempe icon Harry Mitchell (former: high school teacher, city council member, mayor, state senator, and Congressman) will be serving as his campaign chairman.

Keating, courtesy Keating for Council

Phil Amorosi, another long-time community activist and leader, has filed for a run.

Amorosi at a community event, June 2014

Joel Navarro, incumbent member of the council, has filed for a re-election run.

Courtesy Navarro's Twitter page

Robert Kizere, yet another long-time community activist and leader, has filed for a run.


For Tempe Mayor:

No filings as yet, but incumbent Mark Mitchell is running for re-election.

Mitchell at a community event, March 2015

Others will file for both races; stay tuned.



For Scottsdale City Council:

So far, only incumbent Suzanne Clapp has filed.

Courtesy Klapp for Council

Others will get into the race...


I couldn't find any new/significant filings for city of Mesa, Maricopa County, state, or federal offices as of 8:00 p.m. on 5/13/2015 (caveat: the county elections database was down tonight).

Yet.  That will change. :)

Intelligent discourse or guns, what's your flavor?

 Note to readers: The following is not a commentary on the country's problem/obsession with guns.

...It could be "intelligent discourse on guns" but that just doesn't happen in the US, and the reasons for that are best left for another post...

Two upcoming events that would be a great topic for a "compare and contrast" assignment in English 101 (the basic composition course in Arizona's public higher education system) -

First up, The chair of the Federal Election Commission:

Invitation to Attend a Public Forum on Women in Politics

You are cordially invited by Ann M. Ravel, Federal Election Commission Chair, to a public forum on the challenges women face in the political arena. The purpose of the forum is to begin an open discussion with scholars, social scientists, political practitioners and the public to consider why, despite record-breaking numbers of women in the 114th Congress, women remain significantly under-represented in politics at all levels of government. To ensure a productive and wide-ranging discussion, we ask that all forum participants be ready to share their thoughts on this topic at the forum.

View the Chair's Formal Invitation

Public Forum Schedule

Session 1, Defining the Problem

9:00 am – 10:30 a.m.  

Why are women under-represented in elected political office?  What barriers do women face in political fundraising?  How has the federal campaign finance system helped or hurt women seeking political office?

• Adrienne Kimmell, Barbara Lee Foundation
• Jill Lepore, Harvard University
• Christine Matthews, Bellwether Research and Burning Glass Consulting
• Rebecca Traister, The New Republic
• Debbie Walsh, Center for American Women and Politics, Rutgers University

Session 2, Crafting Solutions

10:45 am – 12:15 p.m.

How can we encourage women to seek elected political office?  Are women-focused fundraising PACs the solution?  How have other countries successfully fostered women’s participation in the political process?  What lessons can the United State learn from such programs?

• Justice Maria del Carmen Alanis Figueroa, Federal Electoral Court of Mexico
• Marni Allen, Political Parity
• Victoria Budson, Women and Public Policy Program, Harvard University
• Betilde Munoz-Pogossian, Organization of American States
• Pippa Norris, Harvard University, Sydney University and the Electoral Integrity Project
• Darren Rosenblum, Pace Law School

Location

The forum will be open to the public and press. The forum will be held in the FEC’s ninth-floor hearing room, located at 999 E Street, NW, Washington D.C., on Tuesday, May 12, 2015 from 9:00 A.M. until 12:15 P.M. Those wishing to participate may do so either in person or online.

Participate

If you would like to attend the forum in person, or if you are unable to attend but would like to submit written comments, please email us at CommissionerRavel@fec.gov. If you would like to participate online, live audio and video will be available. Links to both feeds will be available at FEC.gov. All are encouraged to submit comments and questions via Twitter, using the hashtag #FECWIP, or in the video webinar via chat box.  

Please note that this meeting will focus solely on understanding the challenges facing women in politics. If the discussion raises issues that suggest the need to consider revisions to or adoption of Commission regulations or procedures, the Commission will address such issues through its standard, formal procedures.


Contrast with The Tempe Republican Women:

Join us June 13th, 11-2PM at the Tempe Sheraton, 1600 S 52nd St, for a special summer luncheon with guest speaker Gov. Doug Ducey!

Admission is $25 for members (to cover our cost for the lunch and venue) and $50 for guests. For this event only, all guests paying for admission will get a free yearly membership to Tempe Republican Women as well (a $30 value.) Must be a registered Republican woman in Arizona. Republican men and members of other Republican women clubs will be given a free associate membership ($15 value) with purchase of guest admission.

A plated lunch is included with admission. Meal choice is Achiote Chicken. A vegetarian option is also available. Select at checkout.

We will be raffling off a new gun, donated from AZGuns of Chandler, as well as several giftcards to local restaurants. Stay tuned for more information.

Don’t miss out! Q&A will follow the Governor’s speech. Limit to 1 question per guest, unless time permits more.

BUY YOUR TICKET HERE: http://temperw.weebly.com/june-13th-2015-luncheon-wdoug-ducey.html

Questions: TempeAZRW@gmail.com  or  480-306-2545


Want a pic of the gun? 

From their Twitter feed:

I would like to point out two things here:

1. Republicans in Tempe seem to have a thing for putting more guns into circulation.

2. It isn't just Tempe Republicans.

3. As creepy as this is, IMO it isn't as creepy as the Tempe Republican Women's give away of an autographed pair of Joe Arpaio's underwear -

The first event (FEC forum on women in politics) sound interesting.  However, it takes place this coming Tuesday, a work day for me, and starts at 6 a.m. Arizona time.

There might be some readers who might be enthusiastic and engaged at 6 a.m. (in any time zone), but not me. :)

Short Attention Span Musing

...Being offensive isn't a capital crime.

From CNN, via Phoenix Channel 3 (KTVK), written by Saeed Ahmed, Ed Lavandera and Joe Sutton -

A cartoon contest featuring controversial images of the Muslim Prophet Mohammed turned deadly Sunday night when two men pulled up in a car and opened fire. Police returned fire, killing both men after one wounded a security guard.

None of the approximately 200 people attending the event were hurt.

The two shooters have Phoenix ties, sharing an apartment in north Phoenix.

Let's keep it short and simple: 

"Freedom of speech", as an American value, is almost universally treasured, even revered, here. It covers many activities, from "speaking truth to power" to "being obnoxiously offensive".

The organizers of the "cartoon contest" are rabid Islamophobes and were deliberately trying to offend and upset as many people, mostly Islamic, as possible.

They exhibit no redeeming qualities as human beings and offer no benefit to civil society.

They were completely wrong in their behavior.


And as wrong as they were (and still are), they were less wrong than the people they so offended and outraged that those people expressed their outrage by grabbing guns and attempting to kill those that offended them.

And2, this is not even a close call.


...The GOP 2016 presidential field may have to trade in their clown car for a tour bus if this keeps up.

From the Huffington Post, written by Chris Weigant -

Last week, the field of officially-announced Democratic presidential candidates doubled in size, from one person to two. This week, the Republican presidential field is likewise going to double, from three candidates to six. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio have all previously officially announced their candidacies, and this week they will be joined by Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson (who announced today), and Mike Huckabee (scheduled to announce tomorrow).

There are at least a half-dozen more Republicans who are looking to jump into the race, ranging from serious (i.e. - Jeb Bush) to "serious" (wink, wink) (i.e. - the Rick twins, Perry and Santorum).

There are others who are also making noises about getting in the race like Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-bat shit crazy) and Governor John Kasich (R-OH).

Assuming that all of the people who are "rumored" to be running (in quotes because some, like Jeb Bush, are widely known to be running, but haven't officially announced their candidacies) and that at least a few of the dark horses get into the race, the R field will need a larger vehicle to go from state to state.

I'm sure the Koch Brothers can afford it though.


...Doug Ducey may not be courageous, but no one can say that he is stupid.

From the Arizona Republic, written by Laurie Roberts -

The Arizona Board of Regents are voting today on a plan to raise tuition and fees at the state's three universities.

MIA from today's meeting: the person responsible for the Board of Regents having to raise tuition and fees at the state's three universities.

Gov. Doug Ducey, that would be.

...The Grand Canyon chapter of the Sierra Club released its report card on the 2015 legislative session, and to no one's surprise, every Republican at the Capitol except for two, Rep. Noel Campbell and Gov. Doug Ducey, earned "Fs".

Those two earned "Ds".

Next year being an election year, expect all of them to earn "Fs"...unless the Sierra Club adds "G" to their list of possible grades.