(Fiscal Cliff) Diving Into The New Year

Well, earlier today, it looked like that some kind of deal had been worked out between the White House, Senate, and House to avoid put off the country going over the "fiscal cliff".

Then it looked like the deal had been killed by a group of House Republicans, led by speaker-wannabe Eric Cantor, who feel that as bad as the measure is in its current form, it isn't bad enough for their taste.

Now it appears that the House *will* vote on the deal tonight (~ between 7 and 8 p.m. AZ time), and without any amendments.

Not going to predict the outcome of the vote tonight, but the vote outcome will serve as a sign of the outcome of another big vote, this one coming Thursday -

If the fiscal cliff measure passes the House, expect John Boehner to retain the speakership for the next session of Congress.

If it doesn't pass (and this includes it not even coming up for a vote), expect Boehner to lose the speakership, ending up deposed in favor of Eric Cantor.

I'd gloat over Boehner's troubles (he's been a horrid speaker), but if he ends up with the job, Cantor will be worse.