The gloves are coming off: Primary Edition

As the Arizona weather heats up so are some of the primary campaigns, and it's not just between candidates.

...The AZGOP succeeded in knocking (subscription required) some Libertarian candidates off of the ballot in races that are expected to be close, figuring that any votes would have gone to the Libertarian candidates will now go to the Republican candidates in the affected races.  The Libertarian Party is most assuredly not amused.  Expect more moves, but for now, they've turned around and upgraded their outreach efforts to non-affiliated voters, opening up their August primary to all voters who aren't otherwise registered in a ballot-eligible party. 

...A former leader of the AZGOP is calling for the head of the current communications director of the AZGOP because he suggested that there it may be best for the Republican Party to consider a policy toward immigrants that is milder than "kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out."  It's not a primary campaign issue per se, but an internal party rift could impact the results of August's primaries (and there are more than a few on the R ballot)

...Freshman GOP Congressmen David Schweikert and Ben Quayle are running against each other in CD6, a safe R district that encompasses north Scottsdale and other areas of northeastern Maricopa County.  They've turned what had been a campaign of intermittent sniping from the two camps into withering artillery barrages. 

The latest, from the Arizona Capitol Times, written by Jeremy Duda -

A long-anticipated shoe dropped in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, escalating the intraparty battle between U.S. Reps. Ben Quayle and David Schweikert.

After Quayle dubbed his opponent “Dishonest Dave” and accused him of distorting Quayle’s position on President Barack Obama’s recently announced deportation policy, Schweikert fired back by dredging up the scandal that roiled Quayle’s campaign in 2010.

...In the GOP primary to nominate a candidate to fill the US Senate seat currently filled by the soon-to-be retired Jon Kyl, Congressman Jeff Flake and businessman Wil Cardon are the leading candidates.  Flake is considered to be the presumptive front-runner but Cardon is well- (and self-) funded.  Both candidates have access to large amounts of money and have turned the campaign into a raft of "I'm more conservative than thou" TV spots.

...In CD9, the new Congressional District that is based on the Phoenix area, the race for the Democratic nomination has seen the uncovering of a number of interesting tidbits about candidate Andrei Cherny and his past campaigns. 

The latest: videos of him speaking to a tea party group during his 2010 run for Arizona State Treasurer. 

In the videos, it appears that Cherny caters his message, his positions on issues, to suit his audience.

Not the best publicity, coming ~five weeks before early ballots hit mail boxes across the district, but the Cherny campaign may have reached the point where any publicity is good publicity.  There's a strong rumor going around that more than one poll has shown Cherny with support in the single digits.  The measures of his name recognition among Democratic voters are higher, but still lags behind the other candidates in the primary.

To be sure, the campaign isn't over.  Cherny has raised the most money, and has the cash to run a ton of TV spots and to fill mail boxes across the district with his literature.  However, that won't do more than raise his name recognition unless he goes very negative in an attempt to reduce the support for his two opponents, David Schapira and Kyrsten Sinema, who are considerably better known than Cherny.

Look for "elevated mud level" in CD9's air quality reports over the next couple of months; it's going to start flying.


Later...

Arizona politics is like New England weather - don't blink or you might miss something

Damn.  Miss a few days due to technical difficulties, and all kinds of crazy-@$$ $#!t goes down in Arizona's political realm...OK, so it wasn't all that crazy, by AZ standards anyway.  I just wanted to use the phrase.  :)


Oh, and the "technical difficulties" weren't all bad - I finally finished the Gabby Giffords book (finally!), read Cannery Row by John Steinbeck (pretty good.  That Steinbeck guy has some potential. :) ), watched the final season of the Battlestar Galactica reboot on DVD (good, but a little too mystical for this fan of hard SF), and re-read Pearls Sells Out, a Pearls Before Swine treasury (not quite as literary as Steinbeck, but more likely to induce audible laughter.  :) )

...On Thursday, Russell Pearce, Arizona's leading nativist demogogue, experienced a PR and fundraising nightmare.

First, a Pearce campaign fundraising event was booted from one Mexican restaurant, Macayo's, after the corporate office found out that there were going to be protests of the event and that efforts were underway to organize a boycott of the chain by Latino customers.

Second, the Pearce campaign tried to move the event to another Mexican restaurant, Oaxaca Restaurante y Cantina, which also put the kibosh on the event, for much the same reasons.

Third, when the Pearce campaign tried to move his event to the library of a public high school with a heavily Latino student population, they (and he) were rebuffed by the school district .because of the short notice.

...On Friday, Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio showed both his solidarity with his fellow traveler on the nativist railroad AND his peevish self-righteous outrage at President Obama's new DREAM-like policy on immigration by arresting a six-year old girl.  Wonder how that helps his self-publicized rep as "America's Toughest Sheriff"?

...Speaking of the new policy, Arizona Congressmen David Schweikert and Ben Quayle, Republicans both and facing each other in the August primary in CD6, responded to the new policy by trying to out-redneck each other with duelling bills to overturn the policy.

...News broke that a grand jury is looking into alleged campaign finance violations committed by Arizona Attorney General Tom Horne.  I don't expect it to go far though. 

The FBI is handling the investigation, but the Maricopa County Attorney's Office is shepherding the grand jury itself.


...Candidate challenges have been dropped or adjudicated or candidates have withdrawn.  The list from the AZ Secretary of State is here.  Highlights:

- Jonathan Paton had to drop his challenge to the candidacy of one of his opponents in the CD1 Republican primary.  He had filed suit, to great fanfare, challenging the signatures of Gaither Martin.  It must have been embarrassing to Paton to have to back off, so the Arizona Democratic Party did its part to help Paton move past the pain of his humiliation over the failed challenge by launching a website to help publicize Paton's past.  Awfully considerate of them, doncha' think? :)

- Jean Cheuvront-McDermott was removed from the Democratic primary ballot in LD24 because "Cheuvront-McDermott" isn't the name she has been using, just "McDermott."  She's the mother of former state senator Ken Cheuvront, who is running for a return to the senate.  Rumor has it that because the current electeds in LD24 wouldn't step aside for him, Ken got his mom to run as payback.  That plan seems to have gone by the wayside.


...Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett, not coincidentally Arizona co-chair for Mitt Romney's presidential campaign, is continuing to ramp up his 2014 campaign for governor.  First, he threatened to keep President Obama off of the November ballot unless the state of Hawaii provided a copy of Obama's birth certificate that met Bennett's standards.  He backed off of that after bringing a load of national ridicule down upon Arizona.

Now he has taken the next step to sew up the wingnut vote in the R primary.  Now he is saying that the President was actually born in Hawaii, but lied and said he was born in Kenya to help him get into college.


...And finally, in response to a poll that shows Democrat Richard Carmona within 2 points of him in the race for US Senate, Republican Jeff Flake went to Facebook to brag about his "real world" experience as a lobbyist for foreign corporations and the Goldwater Institute.

Flake is almost as out of touch with the "real world" as Mitt Romney.  Probably not a coincidence there.

Candidate withdrawals and challenges

Still have technical issues, but I'm visiting a friend right now.  Should be back fully online Monday afternoon...

Even though it has been only a couple of weeks since nominating petition were due, but there are already a number of withdrawals and challenges to report.

The full list of Congressional and state-level primary candidate challenges, from the AZ Secretary of State, is here; the list of candidates who have already withdrawn is here. 

One name of a challenged candidate that is not on the list is that of Doug Quelland, because he is facing a challenge that is based on alleged campaign finance violations, not alleged nomination irregularities.  Quelland was removed from the state legislature because of Clean Elections-related campaign finance.  The Republican-turned-Independent is running for state senate in the new LD20, and the Republican establishment there is not amused.  Hence the challenge.

Note: all challenges will be heard in Maricopa County Superior Court.

The nomination challenges include:

John Allen State House LD 15: Republican Nomination

Kim Allen State Senate LD 11: Libertarian Nomination

George H. Benavides Sr. State House LD 20: Republican Nomination

Sheila Bilyeu U.S. Senate: Libertarian Nomination

Jean Cheuvront-McDermott State House LD 24: Democratic Nomination

Joe Cobb U.S. House CD 7: Libertarian Nomination

Doug Coleman State House LD 16: Republican Nomination

Rich Crandall State Senate LD 16: Republican Nomination

Jeff Davis State House LD 16: Republican Nomination

Rebecca DeWitt  U.S. House CD 7: Democratic Nomination

Dean Dill State House LD 8: Libertarian Nomination

Toby Farmer State House LD 13: Republican Nomination

James Iannuzo State Senate LD 28: Libertarian Nomination

Gaither Martin U.S. House CD 1: Republican Nomination

Anthony Prowell U.S. House CD 1: Libertarian Nomination

Raquel Teran State Senate LD 30: Democratic Nomination

The list of Maricopa County candidates, including withdrawals/removals, is here.  A few candidates have already withdrawn

I can't find a list of challenges on the county recorder's website, but the highest-profile challenge is the one challenging Mike Stauffer.  He is a former Republican who is running as an Independent for Maricopa County Sheriff.

More as the cases are decided...

Technical issues

Due to technical problems (i.e. - interruption of internet service at home), posting will be light to nonexistent for the next few days.

Which is disappointing when stories like President Obama finally coming around on immigration, and Russell Pearce, the anti-immigrant and anti-public education politician, having a fund-raising event thrown out of two Mexican restaurants and one public high school are breaking without my 2-cents' worth. 

And you know how important my 2-cents' worth is. :))

Talk to you in a few days...

AZGOP spokesman references women by a derogatory epithet, and says it is OK

Aren't spokespeople supposed to talk their employers out of, not into, controversies?

From Channel 3 (KTVK), written by Dennis Welch -

The top spokesman for the Arizona Republican Party didn't like a column published recently in the state's largest newspaper.

So on Monday he slammed the female reporter and another woman quoted in the piece for having what he called a, "bitch session."

Shane Wikfors, the communications director for the state GOP, said there's nothing wrong with using the derogatory term when referring to women.

Wikfors used the term in his response to the column that he disliked, a response posted at Sonoran Alliance, a blog that he created.

From that response (with enough of the text so that Mr. Wikfors and any of his associates can't truthfully complain that it was taken out of context) -

As the spokesman for the Arizona Republican Party, I would have at least expected Ms. Roberts to call and ask a few simple questions about Kathy Petsas’ assertions before going to print, but she didn’t.

And Kathy Petsas never made any attempt to provide any constructive criticism to the State Party. Not surprisingly, I’ve never seen her come to the office to volunteer. Instead, Ms. Petsas ran off to Laurie Roberts and engaged her in a “bitch session.”

Frankly, I’m getting a little tired of people like Kathy Petsas and even some of the political consultants who don’t do a damn thing for their Republican Party. They prefer to stand off in the corner and whine, complain, backstab and do absolutely nothing constructive.

In Welch's article, Wikfors is quoted as defending his use of the term as saying that it is completely acceptable in any corporate boardroom in America.

The fact that the GOP follows the behavioral and moral standards of corporate America isn't surprising; the shamelessly offhanded admission of that by a GOP spokesman is a huge surprise.

They usually aren't that honest, and with this incident, they were honest twice -

First, in expressing their official attitude toward women, particularly those who don't toe the establishment line.

Second, in letting folks officially know from where they draw their behavioral cues.

Balsz School District stands up and just says "no" to TCE

From ABC15.com, written by Steve Kuzj -

A Valley school district had to decide between money and ensuring their students’ health 100 percent.

Freescale Semiconductor offered Brunsun-Lee Elementary School $20,000 a year to build a waste-water pipe underneath their elementary school.

The waste-water the pipe would carry is contaminated with a very dangerous chemical.

{snip}

The board voted unanimously to deny the waste-water pipeline. Members said even the smallest risk was too much for their students.

The five members of the Board, Vic Grace, Todd Schwarz, Fred Andersen, Brenda Janicsek, and J. Will Roberts, should be commended for standing up for the students of their district.  In fact, a webform to do just that can be found here.

CD8 Live blogging results

...And the first results are in...

...8:02 p.m. - Cochise County and Pinal County are the first to report numbers (33 precincts out of 352 overall) -

Jesse Kelly (R) - 12,811
Ron Barber (D) - 11,165
Charlie Manolakis (Green) - 693


...8:12 p.m.  - Precincts from Pima coming in now.  Looks like early ballots, but I'm not absolutely sure of that...

Jesse Kelly (R) - 67,409
Ron Barber (D) - 80,403
Charlie Manolakis (Green) - 3,837


...8:16 p.m. - Santa Cruz County numbers coming in now...

Jesse Kelly (R) - 68,093
Ron Barber (D) - 81,381
Charlie Manolakis (Green) - 3,879


...8:31 p.m. - More results -

Jesse Kelly (R) - 68,144
Ron Barber (D) - 81,417
Charlie Manolakis (Green) - 3,880


...8:36 p.m. - More results, and as with the last update, the changes aren't large ones -

Jesse Kelly (R) - 70,637
Ron Barber (D) - 83,960
Charlie Manolakis (Green) - 3,950

...8:56 p.m. -

Jesse Kelly (R) - 73,739
Ron Barber (D) - 86,095
Charlie Manolakis (Green) - 4,079


...9:01 p.m. -

Jesse Kelly (R) - 77,286
Ron Barber (D) - 90,513
Charlie Manolakis (Green) - 4,185


9:09 p.m. - OK, I'm finally breaking down and calling it for Barber. 50% of the precincts in, the outstanding precincts are from D-friendly Pima County, and Barber is hovering at just under 53% of the vote.

It may get a little closer, but Barber won't go below 51%.

If there are any significant changes, I'll update tomorrow.  Good night!

AZ Political round-up

It's not really a comprehensive look, but it sounds more professional than "killing time until the results start coming in from the special election in CD8"...


...Quartzsite: Making Arizonans of all political stripes wish that the AIRC had "accidently" drawn the new district maps with Quartzsite on the California side of the lines...

From the AZ Republic, written by Dennis Wagner -

Quartzsite residents who thought they voted in new municipal leadership found out otherwise last week when the Town Council decided not to seat Mayor-elect Ed Foster and Councilman-elect Mark Orgeron, claiming the two men are not eligible to hold office.

{snip}

The election hullabaloo is just the latest political clash in the dusty desert town along Interstate 10, the freeway to California. Years of feuding have resulted in numerous criminal and civil investigations.

Foster and about a dozen other critics of the establishment who have been jailed repeatedly say they are victims of false arrest and civil-rights violations. A town attorney was replaced last year after he refused to prosecute cases that he described as politically motivated.

Wonder if the electeds in Maricopa County say a prayer every night, thanking God for the existence of Quartzsite to make Maricopa County look functional and civil?


...And so it begins...

From AP, via KTAR.com -

A Marana man is seeking to have one of his Republican contenders in the 1st Congressional District race removed from the ballot.

Jonathan Paton filed a lawsuit Monday in Maricopa County Superior Court, alleging that signatures gathered by Gaither Martin are invalid. More than half of Martin's 1,099 signatures either were fraudulently collected or gathered under a petition sheet that did not list Martin's actual address in Eagar, the lawsuit contends. Striking those signatures would put Martin below the 568 he needed to join the race, Paton said.

``Running for public office and gaining the trust of voters means following the rules,'' Paton said in a statement. ``Gaither Martin failed a candidate's most basic test: earn the support of residents in the district to qualify for the ballot.''

Paton should probably be careful here.  Considering that to him, CD1 is a set of lines on a map, not "home".

Having said that, this only the first of what will probably be many challenges.  Look for a one to two...dozen.


...The current list of withdrawn/removed candidates for legislative, statewide, or Congressional offices is here.

On the list so far: 

Democratic US Senate candidate David Ruben, or the guy best known to most Democrats as "who?"

Republican LD24 State Senate candidate Scott Fistler

Republican LD25 State Representative candidate Christoper Montijo


...The schedule of legislative primary debates sponsored by the Citizens Clean Elections Commission is here.  As near as I can tell, this will be it for the CCEC debates because I didn't see any districts where both the Democratic and the Republican candidates for the same office are running with CCEC funding (if I'm in error, leave a comment and I'll update the post).

...There will be a general election debate between the candidates for Arizona Corporation Commission because they are all running as CCEC candidates, but the schedule for that debate hasn't been posted yet.

Dear Balsz School District Governing Board: Just say "no" to TCE

Oh, the joys of living in and going to school in a "less than affluent" (aka - "poor") part of town...


From the Arizona Republic, written by Emily Gersema -

For $20,000 a year, an east Phoenix elementary school could be in the pathway of a new pipeline that would carry treated wastewater from a Superfund site.

Freescale Semiconductor would pay rent to the Balsz Elementary School District to bury the pipeline in the district's easement at Brunson-Lee Elementary, which has an estimated 450 children in kindergarten through sixth grade and is near 48th Street and McDowell Road, less than 2 miles west of the company's plant.

{snip}

Freescale has been discharging the treated water into Phoenix's sewer lines. State environmental maps show the plume of contaminated groundwater stretches nearly 7 miles from the plant, and Arizona Department of Environmental Quality documents have raised questions about the efficacy of the Freescale water-treatment facility.

However, ADEQ in December approved the the Freescale pipeline route through the school property and has encouraged the five-member governing board at Balsz to approve it.

"If I lived here, I would not have any concerns," said Wendy Flood, an ADEQ official.

{snip}

The governing board is expected to vote on the pipeline at its 6:30 p.m. meeting on Tuesday at the district office, 4825 E. Roosevelt St.

I don't know if any members of the Balsz Elementary School District Governing Board read this blog, but if they don't (and if they don't, they should.  The people running AZ's schools should be better read :)) ), I hope someone who does read this blog forwards this to them -

1.  The proposed pipeline will contain TCE, or trichloroethylene, a known carcinogen.

2.  Children are the group most vulnerable to the effects of TCE.

3.  While I have no reason to believe that the spokewoman for ADEQ who was quoted in the article is anything but a decent human being, ADEQ as a whole does *not* exist to protect Arizona's children.  It exists to protect business interests from having to do more than the bare minimum to clean up any messes they make in the environment.

4.  Among many responsibilities, and perhaps the culmination of those responsibilities, school boards exist to protect the long-term interests of the students in their districts.

5.  Running a pipeline full of poison underneath a school may be in the best financial interests of the company responsible for cleaning the mess in the groundwater in east Phoenix (meaning it's cheaper than bringing their TCE remediation facility up to par), it's not in the best long-term interests of the district or its students.  The first time the pipeline leaks (and rest assured, it *will* leak), the Board (and the parents, and the students) will find that the $20K/year "rent" won't even begin to cover the associated legal, medical, and environmental clean-up costs.

The best interests of the students, faculty, staff, parents, and residents of the Balsz District would be best served by the governing simply saying "no" to Freescale and ADEQ.

Note: the board's agenda for Tuesday's meeting is here.

Voter Suppression 101 tactics in CD8 Special Election

It looks as if the Kelly campaign's guiding philosophy is "if at first you don't succeed, cheat."

One of the oldest gambits in electoral politics is to try to suppress the turnout of the opposition's base by telling them to show up to vote on a day after the scheduled election day or to misdirect them to the wrong polling place.  Either way, the lie is usually delivered in the guise of "helping" voters.

It looks like the Rs in the Tucson area are going with misdirection.

A Facebook friend from the Tucson area posted this earlier this evening -

A reminder was left at my door informing me of my polling location for Tuesday's Special Election. The problem is that the information was wrong! Fortunately, I got a call from one of Ron's volunteers reminding me to vote. If he hadn't told me my correct voting place, I wouldn't have known there was a problem until Tuesday! Please contact Ron's Tucson office at 520-207-0937 if you have questions about your polling place. Or call the Pima County Recorder at 520-740-4330.

The list of polling places in Pima County is here; if you don't know your precinct, the Pima County Recorder's precinct locator page is here.

The list of polling places in Santa Cruz County is here.

The list of polling places in Cochise County is here.

Short Attention Span Musing

...It's nice to know that even in my own small way, I make an impact...

- Last week, I put up a post on soon-to-be former state legislator Jack Harper's Twitter feed.

Before the post, the feed displayed gems like this one -

After the post, the feed displays this message -

It may qualify as a "little victory" but in a week that saw unfortunate ends to both the season of the Boston Celtics and the Wisconsin recall, even a little victory is welcome...

...Speaking of Wisconsin, and speaking with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, it seems obvious now that a couple of major mistakes were made, one strategic, one tactical.

The strategic mistake was in going after Scott Walker mainly on the policies he pushed while in office.  The recall of Russell Pearce here in AZ was successful because it targeted his arrogant and abusive conduct in office - ordering the arrest of people who disagreed with him, taking "gifts" from the Fiesta Bowl and then going into "lie and deny" mode when he was caught, declaring that one of his colleagues who assaulted his girlfriend by the side of a Phoenix freeway was actually the victim in the incident, etc. - and not the anti-immigrant policies that Pearce has pushed.

Walker's anti-worker policies may be just as despicable as Pearce's nativism, but thus far, in his conduct in office, he hasn't made the kind of missteps that Pearce did.

The tactical error was one that may have been unavoidable.  Going after someone like Pearce who, while loud, is relatively unimportant in the larger picture, and wasn't ever going to bring out the big guns (financially speaking). 

Going after the likes of Walker, who is a big part of the effort to marginalize the working and middle classes for the benefit of the 1%, brought out the "big gun" in the form of millions of dollars of PAC and third-party expenditures on behalf of Walker.

Turns out that even the best "ground game" can be beaten by enough money.  It's not the first election that was bought by deep-pocketed special interests, but it may be the first one where it was done so brazenly.


...Remember high school yearbook superlatives like "best looking", "class clown", and "most likely to succeed"?  Time to start the nomination process for this year's election cycle.

The first nominee for the category of "most likely to commit a campaign finance violation" is Sylvia Allen.  She's currently a state senator, but is running for a spot on the Navajo County Board of Supervisors.

To bankroll that run, she transferred $10,359.90 from her state senate campaign committee to her county supervisor committee (documented on page 7 of this report).  Her senate committee is designated filer ID "201200086" (remember the "2012" part of that filer ID; it'll be important).

To be clear, that move, in and of itself, is allowed.

However, things get interesting when one reads the relevent sections of ARS 16-905, covering elections and campaign finance -

F. A candidate's campaign committee or an individual's exploratory committee shall not make a loan and shall not transfer or contribute money to any other campaign or exploratory committee that is designated pursuant to this chapter or 2 United States Code section 431 except as follows:

{snip}

2. A candidate's campaign committee may transfer or contribute monies to another campaign committee designated by the same candidate as follows:

(a) Subject to the contribution limits of this section, transfer or contribute monies from one committee to another if both committees have been designated for an election in the same year.

Hmm...

Now Allen is known as someone who isn't shy about accepting money from PACs and other political committees - she's taken more than $10K from them in each of her campaigns for the state senate.

The current contribution limits, as set by the Arizona Secretary of State:

Combined total from all Political Committees other than political parties: $10,880

So to sum up:
1. Allen transferred $10359.90 from one 2012 committee to another.
2. Because the contributing committee and the receiving committee are both 2012 committees, campaign finance limits apply.
3.  That leaves Allen $520.10 from reaching the political committee limit.

Anybody want to speculate on how much she will exceed that limit by?

Navajo County campaign finance reports can be found here.  Should make for interesting reading.

Maricopa County Elections 2012: Already all but over

Last week, I put up a post on the nine Congressional and 30 legislative races; today, the focus is on Maricopa County.

Though I don't know why I bother - all but a couple of the races are already over (one candidate only) or will be decided in the primary (uncompetitive districts).

The list of Maricopa County primary candidates, pending withdrawals/challenges, is here.
Maricopa County voter registration numbers, by supervisorial district, are here.
Maricopa County voter registration numbers, by justice of the peace/constable precinct. are here.


County-wide voter reg numbers -

	Republican	Democrats	Independents
Maricopa County	705576	516519	637721

The races for all but one county-wide office are effectively over -

County Assessor Keith Russell, County Recorder Helen Purcell,  County School Superintendent Don Covey, and County Treasurer Charles Hoskins, Republicans one and all, are completely unopposed - no challengers in either the primary or the general election.  In addition, County Attorney Bill Montgomery (R) is facing only a token opponent, Libertarian Michael Kielsky, in the general election.  No Democrat filed for the race, so Kielsky will get 20 - 25% of the vote, but that's it.

One race, the race for County Sheriff, promises to be far more interesting than all of the other races combined -

Democrats Paul Penzone and John Rowan and Independent (and former Republican) Mike Stauffer have all filed signatures to take on embattled Republican incumbent Joe Arpaio.  It will be an uphill battle (look at the county-wide numbers, above), but with the bright spotlight of federal investigations into his conduct in office, that hill isn't as steep as in years past.


Supervisor races

Voter reg numbers -

	Republican	Democrats	Independents
Supervisor District 1	158594	110194	146475
Supervisor District 2	195257	98816	148096
Supervisor District 3	141073	98337	113625
Supervisor District 4	167544	107728	139047
Supervisor District 5	43108	101444	90478

In SD1, the race is over - only Republican Denny Barney filed to run for the seat currently held by Fulton Brock, who isn't running for reelection because of a family-related scandal (wife and daughter boinking an underaged student/family friend.  Note: "boinking" is a euphemism.  You can figure out what it means :) ).

In SD2, while there will be a general election race (Democrat David Ortega of Scottsdale filed for a run), the voter registration disparity favoring the Republicans means that the R primary between Steve Chucri and Lester Pearce will produce the likely winner.  The best shot for Ortega will be if Lester Pearce wins the primary - he's so extreme that the "anybody but Pearce" vote will be huge.  In addition, Ortega is a known quantity among Scottsdale voters as a former member of the Scottsdale City Council.  Scottsdale Republicans are very conservative, but they are Chamber of Commerce Republicans, not burner Republicans (you know, witches, books, crosses, or whatever else is handy).  A pro-business Democrat will have a chance there, especially against someone from the Pearce camp.

In SD3, Democrat Lilia Alvarez will take on Republican incumbent Andy Kunasek.  Another uphill battle for the Democratic candidate, but she's smart and energetic and the hill isn't quite so steep as in SD2.  Not guaranteeing an upset here, but if there is going to be one in the MCBOS races, it will be here.

In SD4, incumbent Republican Max Wilson is facing two challengers in the primary - former legislator Jean McGrath and Richard Hensley, a real estate agent.  No Democrat filed to run in this district.

In SD5, incumbent Democrat Mary Rose Wilcox was slated to face an Independent in November, but her opponent, Manuel Burboa, withdrew from the race.


Justice of the Peace/Constable races

These are going to be both more difficult and easier to write about -

More difficult, because I know next to nothing about most of the districts and the players in them.

Easier, because there are so few actual races.

The wide variation in number of voters in the various Justice Precincts is no mistake.  The districts' lines are designed to approximately equalize workloads, not numbers of residents or geographical areas.

Also, while there are 25, soon-to-be 26, Justice Precincts, only 10 are up for election this year.  The remainder, plus one of this year's precincts that is only electing someone to serve out the remainder of a term, will be up for election in 2014.

Voter reg numbers:

Justice Precincts	Republican	Democrats	Independents
White Tank	30563	20546	28928
Encanto	9748	15144	11139
San Marcos	49719	34308	46714
East Mesa	43907	22388	32221
Downtown	2831	8855	7939
Arcadia Biltmore	19925	20547	20022
Ironwood	1913	1411	1825
Manistee	24401	27326	28843
Maryvale	4561	12413	10852
North Mesa	25149	14228	19897
North Valley	45544	25207	34554
Dreamy Draw	30038	21272	23817
Moon Valley	17569	13927	15043
Arrowhead	55478	29830	37145
McDowell Mountain	77527	37277	54162
Highland	55282	27517	40658
South Mountain	9244	27652	21899
University Lakes	14617	14314	16727
Kyrene	28250	26478	29308
Agua Fria	5163	12027	12261
West Mesa	7300	8100	11095
West McDowell	3211	8893	7748
Hassayampa	44567	26420	37634
San Tan	44104	21002	35365
Desert Ridge	41807	19356	30903
Country Meadows	12758	20081	21022

Arcadia Biltmore -

- JP - Incumbent Democrat Steven Sarkis is facing Republican challenger Michael Corey Chan.  Sarkis is highly respected; Chan ran as a Democrat in the San Marcos (Chandler) Justice Precinct in 2010 and is rumored as being about to be bumped off of the ballot.  Even if Chan survives any challenges to his petitions, Sarkis should defeat him.

- Constable - Incumbent Democrat Carolyn Lane is facing Republican challenger Roger Pongratz.  Lane is respected for her professionalism (something that cannot be said about many of her constable colleagues), but I don't know much about Pongratz other than that he ran for JP in 2008 and lost.


Country Meadows -

- JP - A new Justice Precinct, there aren't any incumbents here yet.  Democrats Anna Huberman and Joel Grajeda and Republican David Iwanski are running here.

- Constable - Only Democrat Kenneth Sumner filed to run for this office.


Desert Ridge -

- JP - No Democrat filed here, so the race will be decided in a three-way Republican primary between incumbent Clancy Jayne, Bill Ponath, and Jeff Schapira. 

- Constable - Republican Cory Hazlett is completely unopposed.  Given that he submitted only 22 signatures more than the required minimum, somebody is probably kicking himself right now.  A razor-thin cushion like that is just begging for a challenge, but what would be the point?


Downtown -

- JP - (2 year term) Democrats Benny Arce and Jimmie Hernandez are running; no Republicans filed here.


Dreamy Draw -

- JP - Republican Frank Conti is completely unopposed.

- Constable - Republican Doug Middleton is completely unopposed.


Highland -

- JP - One of the most interesting races.  No Democrats filed here, but five Republicans - incumbent Dan Dodge, James Estrada, Steve Urie, William Jefferson, and Jeff Smith.  Don't know much about them except for Urie, who is currently a state legislator and owner of a property management company that operates apartments and other rental properties.  "Operate" includes things like "evicting".  Guess what kind of cases a JP hears?  Can you say "conflict of interest"?  Hope so, 'cuz it seems obvious that Urie can't.

- Constable - Republican Phil Freestone is completely unopposed.


Maryvale -

- JP - Right now, there is a Democratic primary (candidates Federico Fuentes and Andy Gastelum) with the winner scheduled to go on to face two Independents in the general election (Francisco Meneses Jr. and Yesenia Perez).  However, while Gastelum submitted nearly 1200 signatures, giving him a large cushion over the mimimum required (241),  the others submitted totals that barely exceeded that minimum.  One candidate submitted only seven more than the minimum.  Don't be surprised if one or more candidates are knocked off the ballot.  No Republicans filed here.

- Constable - Only Democrats Frank Canez and Rafael Ung filed for this race.


Moon Valley -

- JP - Only Republicans Rebecca MacBeth and Russ Willis filed here.

- Constable - Only Republican J. Richard Coplan filed here.


North Mesa -

- JP - Another interesting race.  This used to be Lester Pearce's seat until he resigned to run for the Board of Supervisors.  One interested candidate, Kyle Jones, was appointed to fill the vacancy.  However, he did *not* file to run for a full term.  Republicans Cecil Ash, Jess Romney, and David Lane filed to run here, as did Democratic attorney Jacie Cotterell.  Ash is the most well-known - he is a member of the current state legislature.

- Constable - Republicans Edward Homan and Ed Malles filed here.  No Democrats filed.


San Tan -

- JP - Republicans Sam Goodman and Larry Campbell filed here; no Democrats.

- Constable - Independent Darrel Luth and Republicans Steve Allen and Ted Titchenal are running here.


South Mountain -

- Constable - (2 year term) Democrats Lincoln Brevard Jr., Jimmie Munoz, and Tommy Sanchez filed here.

There are 31 Maricopa County races on the primary ballot; perhaps three will have somewhat competitive general election races, and a few more could see "miracle" upsets there, but 80% of the races in Maricopa County will be over once the primary results come in.

I know that the Republicans and the few Democrats in safe districts will scream, but it is time for the voters to establish an Independent Redistricting Commission for county races.  Allowing the county supervisors to pick their voters, instead of the voters picking their county supervisors has contributed, in large part, to Maricopa County having the most embarrassing county government in the country.

The county health board, community college district governing board, board of directors for the Central Arizona Project, and local school boards are non-partisan (in theory, anyway) and go directly to the November ballot.  Their sigs aren't due for a few more weeks.

An Open Letter From Marcia Busching

An open letter from Marcia Busching, candidate for Arizona Corporation Commission to the three Republican candidates for the ACC...

May 31, 2012

TO: BOB BURNS
SUSAN BITTER SMITH
BOB STUMP

Disappointed.

That is how I feel.

As a candidate for the Arizona Corporation Commission, I have been looking forward to what I hoped would be a stimulating, policy-driven debate throughout the course of the campaign.

Instead, it is only May, and already I can see that what I’m facing is more of the same thing I’ve been seeing from career politicians for decades: A slate of opposing candidates who prefer to mislead their constituents with half-truths, innuendo and outright falsehoods, rather than trust the voters in our state to make a decision based on facts, positions and genuine recitations of belief.

Your newly launched web site includes photographs of me, and several of my fellow candidates, alongside the statement that we are each and all “committed to follow President Obama’s energy policies.”

That may serve as convenient red meat to toss to your supporters in an effort to energize your base.

What it does not serve to do is tell the truth.

I would challenge you, individually or collectively, to provide any evidence that I have ever made any such commitment, publicly or privately. It is, quite simply, untrue.

What is true is that the President’s energy policies do include some components with which I agree, such as a strong pursuit of alternative energy development. The question is: Why don’t the three of you agree with me on that stance? Solar energy production, as an industry, has the potential to transform Arizona, with massive new investments, thousands of new jobs and the possibility of dramatically reduced local energy rates for all Arizonans.

Are the three of you against new jobs, financial investments in our state and lower energy rates?

This is my first candidacy for elected office, but I have many decades of experience in practicing law, professional mediation, running a small business and public service. I knew what to expect when I made the decision to seek this office, and I am fully prepared for you, my opponents, to launch attacks on my character. What I had hoped for was that I would be answering for my genuine stance on issues, policies and practices; not having to dispel myths that have absolutely no basis in reality.

I am ready, willing and extremely eager to engage with each and all of you regarding the issues important to Arizonans: creating and retaining jobs, lowering energy costs, ensuring safely-run utilities and fighting investment fraud. But if we’re going to do so, we should all agree to do so within the confines of fact.

I respectfully ask you to take down or edit the content of your web site to be based in fact, not innuendo. In my opinion, you each owe an apology to the good people of Arizona whose intelligence and decency you’ve insulted with the outright falsehoods you’ve put forth about who I am and what I stand for.

Respectfully,

Marcia Busching

Note to friends of Jack Harper: Friends don't let friends tweet without an editor, or at least spellcheck

With the adjournment of the legislature and his decision not to run for another term in the lege (or another office) this year, things have been quiet on the "Zany World of Jack Harper" front.

He isn't a regular on the local political discussion TV shows, he doesn't and won't have the platform of the state legislature, and he's adjusted his Facebook page to a generic title - "Jack Harper - state elected official".  It used to say something about "state representative" or something similar.

He's lowering his profile, perhaps in preparation for a statewide run in 2014 (in the past, he's professed an interest in a run for SOS)

Which is a little discouraging. 

I know that statement is surprising to some, but whenever I'm suffering through a bout of writer's block, he somehow finds a microphone and/or TV camera, and the writer's block vanishes.

When I noticed the lowering of his profile, I worried a little, but I needn't have fretted - he still has a Twitter feed. :))

From yesterday's feed -

Now, I'm not going to pass judgement on simple typos, having made won ore too here, but "regulatute"??

"Regulatute"???

Next up:  Harper tweets that spellcheck functions are a "socialist conspiracy" to suppress the free expression of people who revel in their ignorance.

Preliminary Guide to AZ's Congress And Legislative Elections

OK, this post will be long and more than a little dry (kind of like AZ's summers), but here are the sources of info -


From the Arizona Secretary of State:

- Voter registration counts in the new Congressional districts, as of April, here
- Voter registration counts in the new legislative districts, as of April, here
- Listing of candidates who have submitted nominating petitions for the Congressional, legislative, and statewide primary elections, here; Note - one or more candidates will have their candidacies challenged in some way or will withdraw or will somehow end up not on the ballot.  Right now, I can't predict which candidates will be impacted, so all analysis will be based on conditions "as is".


In the following analysis, I've stuck with practical considerations; my opinion of policy considerations can be summed up thusly - if an Arizona Republican is able to make it through a primary, he/she can safely be assumed to be anti-society and anti-Arizona's future.

To those who hoped last year's redistricting processes would help bring some balance to Arizona's political scene:

First the good news - it helped...

Now the bad news - ...but not much.  A majority of districts remain so uncompetitive that the either the race is uncontested or will effectively be decided in the primary.


Congressional races:

The applicable voter registration figures for the new Congressional districts (note: in some of the voter reg sources, Independents are referred to as "Other" but I believe "Other" could be construed to include Greens and Libertarians.  As these numbers don't include Greens and Libertarians, I'm showing the numbers of those who didn't specify a party on their registrations as "Independents"):

 

	Democrats	Republicans	Independents
CD1	144102	113428	110609
CD2	125212	131545	112390
CD3	114777	60045	93053
CD4	81707	153023	127653
CD5	89575	182667	135873
CD6	94811	168003	129776
CD7	91887	37618	77194
CD8	98588	163681	129118
CD9	110186	123069	124687

 Map of the districts, courtesy the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission -

The good news here is that no incumbent is unchallenged.  All are facing a primary or major party general election opponent, or both, in every district.  The bad news is that most of the races are in districts where the voter registration of one party or another is so steep that the races there will effectively be over after the primary results are in.

Analysis:


- CD1 is a Democratic-leaning district that could go R. 

The Democratic primary will come down to the grassroots organizing of Wenona Benally Baldenegro against the deep pockets of and establishment support for Ann Kirkpatrick.  I think that favors Kirkpatrick, but if there is going to be a Democratic primary upset, it will be here.

The Republican primary here is a crapshoot.  The only candidate that I've heard of, former state senator Jonathan Paton, is also the one who doesn't live in the district.

Edge (for now): Kirkpatrick.


- CD2 is a slightly Republican-leaning district that could go D.  It's shaping up to be D Ron Barber vs. R Jesse Kelly, but the wild card is that both are in the (current) CD8 special election to serve out the remainder of Gabby Giffords' term and if either one gets smoked next week, that could open up things for a primary challenger.  Slight edge: Barber, as he is a friend and former staffer for Giffords, and there is an incredible amount of affection and respect for her in the area, state, and country.

- CD3 is a strongly Democratic district and the contest is likely to be decided in the primary.  There, incumbent Raul Grijalva is facing a pair of primary challengers, but I haven't heard that enough Ds in that district are ticked off at him to put his seat in danger.  So long as he takes the challenges seriously and campaigns.  Edge: Grijalva.


- CD4 is a strongly Republican district and the contest is likely to be decided in the primary.  There, carpetbagger/incumbent Paul Gosar is facing termed-out state senator Ron Gould of Lake Havasu.  Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu was in the race, but he and his office are the subjects of federal investigations (not actually a problem in R primaries) and he was outed as being gay (that actually *is* a problem in R primaries).  Right now, I'd call this one a toss-up.


- CD5 is a strongly Republican district and the contest is likely to be decided in the primary.  Former congressman Matt Salmon and former speaker of the Arizona House Kirk Adams are facing off.  Salmon has a fundraising advantage right now, but Adams may have the ground game to counter that advantage.  Edge (for now): Salmon.


- CD6 is a strongly Republican district and the contest is likely to be decided in the primary.  Current members of Congress David Schweikert and Ben Quayle are facing off.  Schweikert is more polished, but Quayle still has access to his father's money and even more importantly, his contacts.  Right now, this is another toss-up.

- CD7 is a strongly Democratic "voting rights" district.  The winner of the Democratic primary will be the winner - the Republicans don't even have a "show the flag" candidate here.  However, incumbent Ed Pastor is facing a primary challenge from one Rebecca Dewitt.  Haven't heard of her before, so edge: Pastor. 

- CD8 is a strongly Republican district and the contest is likely to be decided in the primary.  Incumbent Trent Franks is facing both primary and general election opponents.  If he was running for mayor of Washington, D.C., he'd be in trouble, but as he is running for Congress from AZ, he should be fine.  Edge: Franks.

- CD9 is a truly competitive district.  There are strong primary battles on both sides of the ballot, and the general election result will be driven by "Get Out The Vote" efforts.

On the Democratic side, David Schapira, the Democratic leader in the state senate, Kyrsten Sinema, a former legislator, and Andrei Cherny, the former chair of the Arizona Democratic Party are contesting for the nomination.  Schapira and Sinema are experienced campaigners, Cherny is a former staffer in the Clinton-era White House and has access to a lot of out-of-state money.  All are smart and have smart people around them, but Schapira is the only one who has run in, and won in, a competitive district.  Slight edge: Schapira.

Disclaimer:  I support Schapira in this race and while I've tried to be fair and stick to practical factors, my personal opinions of his candidacy should be taken into consideration when evaluating what I've written here.

On the Republican side, there are seven candidates, ranging from former or current members of city councils (Lisa Borowsky, Scottsdale; Martin Sepulveda, Chandler; Vernon Parker, Paradise Valley) through former government employees who will be sure to have demonization of public sector workers as a campaign plank (Wendy Rogers, USAF; Leah Campos Schandlbauer, CIA) to dilettantes/business owners who think that running a business is more than adequate qualification to hold high public office (Travis Grantham, [Robert] Jeff Thompson).  Got no clue on this one right now, so it's a toss-up, for now.

General election:  toss-up.  Any candidate strong enough to win a primary race in this environment will be strong enough to win a general election race in this environment.

Quick overall analysis:  Four seats that are all-but-guaranteed to end up in R hands, two that are all-but-guaranteed to end up in D hands, and three seats that either major party has a real opportunity of taking.

Summary:  While the partisan breakdown of the nine Congressional seats could end up 7-2 in favor of the Rs or 5-4 in favor of the Ds, it seems likely that it will be 5-4 or 6-3 in favor of the Rs, unless this year turns out to be a "wave" year in one direction or the other.


Legislative races:

There are many races here where the major party candidate(s) is (are) unchallenged, but there are a few interesting races to watch nonetheless.  In many of the districts, particularly the non-Maricopa districts, I am not familiar with many of the candidates or the conditions on the ground (so to speak) and won't even try to make a prediction, even one that is heavily laden with "weasel words" ("might", "maybe", "could", etc.).

Also, write-in campaigns are possible and where no one from a particular party has filed to run for a seat, they're more than a little likely.  There was one successful one in 2010 when Republican Don Shooter ran as a write-in in the LD24 (Yuma) Republican primary for state senate before going on to win the general election.

Voter registration numbers -

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

LD1	25073	60515	41557
LD2	34832	20827	27398
LD3	39291	14206	24475
LD4	30048	18636	26656
LD5	26682	48114	43111
LD6	31709	43612	36367
LD7	62954	23104	31657
LD8	30736	24810	28662
LD9	40668	37516	31895
LD10	40232	37566	31532
LD11	30345	44843	36104
LD12	25243	59352	40563
LD13	23055	39051	31877
LD14	35864	49261	38588
LD15	26856	51722	37930
LD16	26365	45098	43571
LD17	31126	49319	44287
LD18	38858	50372	45013
LD19	25914	13494	26411
LD20	30767	41678	35718
LD21	32819	44019	39016
LD22	29290	59472	41739
LD23	31394	67436	49151
LD24	31042	20833	27878
LD25	28608	59076	39967
LD26	28004	22850	35669
LD27	32546	10352	25661
LD28	33095	48204	33411
LD29	24075	13464	23610
LD30	23458	15064	22057

Maps courtesy the AIRC -

Statewide

Maricopa County

Pima County

















- LD1 is a heavily Republican district where the race will be over after the primary.

State Senate - incumbent Steve Pierce is unchallenged in the primary and no Democrat will be facing him in the general.  However, Independent (and former R) Tom Rawles filed to run directly in the general.  Given that this district is overwhelmingly Republican, the edge goes to Pierce here.

State House - one of the most interesting legislative primaries this year.  Incumbents Karen Fann and Andy Tobin, from the Prescott area in Yavapai County, are being challenged by Lori Klein, from Anthem in Maricopa County.  Klein is currently in the state senate but redistricting put her suburban Phoenix home into a district that is heavily rural.  Edge: Fann and Tobin.

- LD2 is a Democratic-leaning district where the race will likely be decided in the primary.

State Senate - incumbent Linda Lopez is unchallenged in both the primary and the general election.

State House - the two Democratic candidates, Andrea Dalessandro and Rosanna Gabaldon should be able to hold off the single R candidate.

- LD3 is a heavily Democratic district where the results of the general election will match perfectly with the results of the primary - no Republicans filed for the seats here.

State Senate - this is one of the non-Maricopa primaries where I can make no predictions - incumbent Olivia Cajero Bedford is facing one Maria Garcia, who I believe is the widow of late state senator Jorge Garcia.

State House - the Democratic candidates, Sally Ann Gonzales and Macario Saldate don't face any challengers at all.

- LD4 is a Democratic-leaning district where no Republican candidates are running.

State Senate - incumbent (sort of - she's a state rep right now) Lynne Pancrazi is the only candidate on the ballot.

State House - there's a three-way primary for the two seats.  Democrats Charlene Fernandez, Lisa Otondo, and Juan Escamilla are running.  No predictions here.

- LD5 is a heavily Republican district where the primaries are likely to determine the general election outcome.  At least the Democrats are making an effort here.

State Senate - the Republican primary includes candidates Nancy Mclain, Sam Scarmado and Kelli Ward.  McClain is currently in the House, but I don't know the others.  No predictions here.  Democrat Beth Weisser awaits in the general.

State House - the Republican primary includes candidates Sonny Borrelli, Wyatt Brooks, Doris Goodale, and George Schnittgrund.  Goodale is an incumbent, but I know nothing about the others.  No predictions.


- LD6 is a Republican-leaning district that could get interesting.

State Senate - two current House members, Democrat Tom Chabin and Republican Chester Crandell are contesting for the seat.  The numbers favor Crandell, but Chabin is a smart and strong candidate with a solid base of support in the Flagstaff area.  Right now, I'll give the edge to Crandell, but it's only a tentative edge.

State House - Democrats Doug Ballard and Angela Lefevre will face Republicans Brenda Barton and Bob Thorpe in the general.  Right now, the numbers favor Barton and Thorpe, but this is one to keep an eye on.


- LD7 is a heavily Democratic district where the Democratic primary will decide the races.  No Republicans are running here.

State Senate - incumbent Jack Jackson is unchallenged.

State House - a three way Democratic primary for the two seats.  Incumbent Albert Hale, Jamescita Peshlakai, and Phil Stago are the candidates.  No predictions.


- LD8 is a Democratic-leaning district that could see the Rs poaching one or even two of the three legislative slots here if the Democratic candidates take the voter registration advantage for granted.

State Senate - Democrat Barbara McGuire, a former legislator, and Republican Joe Ortiz are running.  The experience and numbers favor McGuire.

State House - Democrats George Arredondo, Ernest Bustamante, and Emily Verdugo are going after the two D nominations in the district.  The winners of that contest will face Republicans Frank Pratt, an incumbent, and TJ Shope in the general.


- LD9 is a slightly Democratic-leaning district that could see a seat poached by the Rs.

State Senate - Democrat Steve Farley, a current state representative, will face Republican Tyler Mott in the general.  This one will be a GOTV-based result.

State House - three Democrats, Dustin Cox, Mohur Sidwa, and Victoria Steele are vying to face Republican Ethan Orr in the general.


- LD10 is a slightly Democratic leaning district that seems likely to end up with a partisan split in its representation at the state capitol.

State Senate - a potentially very interesting race here.  Democrat David Bradley, a former state legislator, and Republican Frank Antenori, a current state senator and failed Congressional candidate, are the only candidates who filed here.  Bradley isn't the most electric candidate, but Antenori is the kind of person that is either loved or despised, no middle ground.  No prediction.

State House - Democrats Bruce Wheeler, an incumbent, Stefanie Mach, and Brandon Patrick have filed, as have Republicans Ted Vogt, an incumbent, and Todd Clodfelter.  No predictions.


- LD11 is a strongly Republican district without contested primaries, but at least the Democrats are showing up here.

State Senate - incumbent R Al Melvin will face D Jo Holt in the general.  Edge: Melvin. (If I could choose a prediction to be wrong about, this would be the one.  Melvin is a tool, and not a particularly sharp one.)


State House - Democrat Dave Joseph will face Rs Steve Smith, a current state senator, and Adam Kwasman.  Edge to Smith and Kwasman.


- LD12 is a strongly Republican district where the race will be decided in the Republican primary.

State Senate - incumbent Andy Biggs is unopposed.

State House - a four-way R primary, with candidates Eddie Farnsworth, an incumbent, Larry Chesley, and Warren Petersen.


- LD13 is a strongly Republican district where the race will be decided in the Republican primary.  No Democrats filed in this district.

State Senate - one of the more interesting primaries.  Incumbents John Nelson and Don Shooter are facing off.  Shooter chose to move to this R-friendly district than run in a D-leaning one.  It may work, but the grassroots of the major parties have one thing (and perhaps only one thing) in common - they don't like rewarding candidates who prefer to take out one of their own over a contest with someone from the other party.  No predictions, but... :)

State House - a four-way primary, with candidates Russ Jones, incumbent, Steve Montenegro, incumbent, Toby Farmer, and Darin Mitchell.  No predictions.


- LD14 is a heavily Republican district where the general election is likely decided in the primary, but at least the Democrats aren't giving the Rs a free pass here.

State Senate - Democrat Pat Fleming will face incumbent Gail Griffin in the general.  The numbers favor Griffin, however, this one has a small, but real, chance to get interesting.

State House - Democrats Robert Leach and Mark Stonebraker will face incumbents David Gowan and David Stevens.  As with the senate race, the numbers favor the Rs, but a lot of hard work and a little luck could make this race one to watch.


- LD15 is a heavily Republican district where the races will effectively be over after the primary.

State Senate - incumbent Nancy Barto is unchallenged in the primary or the general.

State House - there's a four-way R primary with incumbents Heather Carter and David Burnell Smith, John Allen (who I believe is a former legislator, but I'm not sure) and James Bearup on the ballot.  Pat Flickner is the sole candidate on the Democratic side of the ballot.


- LD16 is a heavily Republican district where the races will effectively be over after the primary.

State Senate - another interesting primary.  Current state rep John Fillmore lives in the district and is running for the senate, but current state senator Rich Crandall moved to this district to avoid a primary battle with former state senator Russell Pearce.  The winner of this one will face Democrat Scott Prior in November.  No predictions.

State House - a four-way R primary with candidates Jeff Davis, Judy Novalsky, Doug Coleman, and Kelly Townsend.  The only one that I've heard of is Townsend, who is a tea party type and was a regular at AIRC hearings last year, haranguing them repeatedly in support of uncompetitive district.  Don't know if the overall map is uncompetitive enough for her taste, but she should be happy with this district. 

No predictions.


- LD17 is a strongly Republican district where the races are already effectively over.  There aren't any primaries on either side of the ballot.

State Senate - incumbent Steve Yarbrough will face Democrat Bill Gates in the general election.

State House - incumbents JD Mesnard and Tom Forese will face Democrat Karyn Lathan in the general election.


- LD18 is a strongly Republican district but there is a full slate of smart and energetic Democratic candidates who could make this one interesting.  There are no primary contests in this district.

State Senate - incumbent John McComish will face Democratic candidate Janie Hydrick in the general.

State House - incumbents Bob Robson and Jeff Dial will face Democrats Corey Harris and Darin Fisher in the general election.  Independent Brent Fine will also be on the general election ballot.


- LD19 is a strongly Democratic district where no Republican candidates filed to run.

State Senate - current state rep Anna Tovar is running unopposed.

State Houe - a four-way primary with candidates Mark Cardenas, Lupe Contreras, Bryan Kilgore, and Lorenzo Sierra.  No predictions.


- LD20 is a strongly Republican-leaning district where some interesting stuff could happen.

State Senate - current state rep Kimberly Yee will face Democrat Michael Powell in the general election.  The wild card here is former state rep Doug Quelland, who has filed to run as an independent.  He may get knocked off the ballot by a new state law that bars anybody who owes fines for election-related infractions from running for office until the fines are paid.  Quelland was removed from office for violations of Clean Elections rules and has refused to pay the associated fines.  However, since Arizona is a Voting Rights Act "pre-clearance" state and the new law affects the conduct of elections, it has to be approved by the USDOJ before it can go into effect.

State House - a three-way R primary with candidates Carl Seel, an incumbent, George Benavides and Paul Boyer duking it out for the opportunity to face Democrats Jackie Thrasher and Tonya Norwood.  I don't know anything about Norwood, but Thrasher is a former state rep who was the victim of R games in 2008.  Not predicting an upset here, though.  Yet.


- LD21 is a Republican-leaning district, but there is a full slate of Democratic candidates so this won't be a walkover.

State Senate - incumbent Rick Murphy will face De mocrat Michael Tarrats in the general election.

State House - incumbents Debbie Lesko and Rick Gray will face Democrats Carol Lokare and Sheri Van Horsen in the general election.


- LD22 is a strongly Republican district where the race will be over after the primary election - no Democrats filed to run here.

State Senate - appointed incumbent Judy "I was a birther before Ken Bennett" Burges is completely unchallenged.

State House - there's a three-way primary with candidates Jeanette Dubreil, Phil Lovas, and David Livingston.


- LD23 is a strongly Republican district where the race will be over after the primary election - no Democrats filed to run here.

State Senate - incumbent Michelle Reagan is completely unchallenged.

State House - three-way primary involving incumbents John Kavanagh and Michelle Ugenti and challenger Jennifer Petersen.


- LD24 is a solidly Democratic district.  However, there will be hard-fought Democratic primaries, and if the D races get nasty, it could create an opportunity for the Republicans to poach a seat.

State Senate - current state rep Katie Hobbs and former state senator Ken Cheuvront are vying for the Democratic nomination.  The victor will face the victor of the R primary, either Augustine Bartning or Scott Fistler.  Hobbs and Cheuvront are known names among district Democrats, but that may not help Cheuvront.  Two years ago he tried to mount a primary challenge to a local highly-regarded justice of the peace, not because the JP in question was bad at the job, but because Cheuvront was term-limited out of the senate and he wanted a steady paycheck.  Edge: Hobbs.

State House - incumbents Chad Campbell and Lela Alston are joined in the primary by challengers Jean Cheuvront-McDermott (no, she's not related to me, and yes, she's related to Ken Cheuvront, above - she's his mom) and Tom Nerini.  Apparently, Ken is ticked off that the current electeds in the district wouldn't step aside in his favor, so he got his mom to mount a primary challenge.  I don't know anything about Nerini.  Edge (for now): Campbell and Alston.


- LD25 is an overwhelmingly Republican district where the races will be decided in the primary.

State Senate - but what a primary.  The LD25 Republican senate primary is easily the most-watched legislative race in the state, perhaps in the whole country.  Mesa businessman Bob Worsley is taking on Russell Pearce, who is attempting to make a return to the state senate after his historic, but ignominious, defeat in a recall election last year.  This one is going to get Ugly.  Democrat Greg Gadek will face the victor in the general election.

State House - incumbents Justin Pierce and Justin Olson, along with challenger Christopher Montijo are facing off in the R primary.  They'll face Democrat David Butler in November.


- LD26 is a Democratic-leaning district that could very well see a seat poached by the Rs.

State Senate - current D state rep Ed Ableser is facing current R state senator Jerry Lewis.  The numbers favor Ableser, but Lewis is the man who defeated Russell Pearce last year, and he may still garner some gratitude for that from general election voters.  The numbers may favor Ableser, but he's the underdog in this race.  Edge: Lewis.

State House - Democrats Andrew Sherwood and Juan Mendez will face the winners of a four-way Republican primary which has candidates Mary Lou Taylor, Buckley Merrill, Raymond Speakman and Jason Youn.  Edge to Sherwood and Mendez, but it's not an overwhelming one.


- LD27 is an overwhelmingly Democratic district where the real contest is in the primary.

State Senate - incumbent Leah Landrum is facing Victor Contreras in the primary.  The victor will face Republican Sarah Coleman in the general election.

State House - incumbents Catherine Miranda and Ruben Gallego and challenger Reginald Bolding square off in the Democratic primary.  They'll face Republican Daniel Coleman in November.  I don't know his relationship to the Sarah Coleman in the senate race, but they have the same filer address on their SOS paperwork.


- LD28 is a strongly Republican district where the winner(s) of the R primary is likely to win the general election, but there are strong Democratic candidates here who could make the race very interesting.

State Senate - incumbent Adam Driggs will face Democrat Eric Shelley in November.

State House - because of redistricting, three incumbent will be facing off in November.  Democrat Eric Meyer and Republicans Amanda Reeve and Kate Brophy McGee have no primary challengers.  Edge to the Rs, but since Meyer has won uphill battles before this, keep an eye on this one.


- LD29 is a strongly Democratic district where no Republicans have filed to run.

State Senate - incumbent Steve Gallardo is unchallenged.

State House - incumbent Martin Quezada and challengers Lydia Hernandez and Martin Samaniego face off in the primary.


- LD30 is a strongly Democratic district where no Republicans have filed to run.

State Senate - incumbent Robert Meza and challenger Raquel Teran are waging a primary battle here.

State House - incumbent Debbie McCune-Davis and challengers Jonathan Larkin and Mike Snitz are squaring off in the primary.


Based on what I can see here, the days of Republican supermajority control of each chamber of the lege are over, though it is unlikely that the Democrats will be able to take over one or another chamber this year.